Evidence from Muger Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue-Nile Basin of Ethiopia

Linking Vulnerability, Adaptation and Food Security in a Changing Climate: Evidence from Muger Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue-Nile Basin of Ethiopia Abayineh Amare A Dissertation Submitted to Center for Environment and Development Studies, College of Development Studies Presented in the Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Development Studies (Environment and Development Studies) Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia June, 2018 Linking Vulnerability, Adaptation and Food Security in a Changing Climate: Evidence from Muger Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue-Nile Basin of Ethiopia Abayineh Amare A Dissertation Submitted to Center for Environment and Development Studies, College of Development Studies Presented in the Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Development Studies (Environment and Development Studies) Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia June, 2018 i Declaration I, the undersigned, declare that this is my original work, has never been presented in this or any other University, and that all the resources and materials used for the dissertation, have been fully acknowledged. Name:-__Abayineh Amare Signature: Date: - June 05, 2018 Place: - Addis Ababa Date of submission June 05, 2018 This dissertation has been submitted for examination with my approval as University supervisor. Supervisor name: - Belay Simane (PhD.) Signature: Date: - June 05, 2018 ii iii iv Linking Vulnerability, Adaptation and Food Security in a Changing Climate: Evidence from Muger Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue-Nile Basin of Ethiopia ABSTRACT Ethiopia has been deemed a climate ‘hot-spot’- a place where a changing climate pose grave threats to agricultural production, food security and human well-being. The objectives of this study are to estimate and compare the level of vulnerability of smallholder farmers' to climate change and variability; to explore adaptation options and identify factors influencing farmers’ decisions to adopt adaptation options; to examine the food security status and determinants of household food security; and to evaluate the impact of adoption of adaptation options on household food security in the Muger sub-basin of the upper Blue-Nile of Ethiopia. The research used Focussed Group Discussions, key informant interviews and a semi-structured questionnaire survey of 442 sampled households to collect data across three different agro-ecological zones in the sub-basin. The study used descriptive methods, index, and econometrics models to analyse the collected data. Descriptive statistics such as frequency, mean, chi-square, t-tests, and one way ANOVA were used. Livelihood vulnerability index, household food balance model, binary logit model, multinomial logit model, and propensity score matching were used to analyse the data. The results reveal that along with the different agro-ecological zones, households experienced different degrees of vulnerability. Kolla agroecology exhibits relatively low adaptive capacity, higher sensitivity and higher exposure to climate change and variability that is deemed to be the most vulnerable agro-ecology. Dega agro-ecology has least vulnerable owing to its higher adaptive capacity, lower sensitivity and exposure. Results signify that small-scale irrigation, agronomic practices, livelihood diversification, and soil and water conservation measures are the dominant adaptation options that smallholder farmers used to limit the negative impact of climate change and variability in the study area. The results further reveal that adoption of small-scale irrigation is significantly and positively influenced by access to credit, social capital, and the educational status of household heads. Crop failure experience and access to early warning system positively affected the use of agronomic practices, while distance to marketplace and size of farmland have a negative influence. The results also point out that adoption of soil and water conservation measures are positively affected by early warning systems, distance to the marketplace, and size of cultivated land. It is also noted that livelihood diversification is negatively influenced by socio- economic factors such as education, gender of the household head, and livestock ownership. The household food security analysis results show that 57.8% of the households are food secure, while the remaining 42.2% of the households are food insecure. Soil and water conservation, small-scale irrigation, and employing different agronomic practices are important factors influencing household food security. Moreover, landholding and livestock ownership positively and significantly affect household’s food security, while family size and distance to the nearest market affect food security negatively. The results further reveal that farmers adopting any of the adaptation options had higher food calorie intake per day per adult equivalent than those who did not. These results suggest that designing agroecology based resilience-building adaptation strategies is crucial to reduce the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability. A policy that promotes the adoption of soil and water conservation measures, small-scale irrigation, agronomic practices, and livelihood diversification strategies should be central to food security strategy in the study area. The results suggest that improved policies aimed at increasing the adoption of adaptation options to off-set the impact of climate change and variability should focus on: creating effective micro-finance institutions and effective early warning systems, increasing farmer awareness, improving infrastructure, and encouraging farmers’ membership to many social groups. The results further suggest that agro-ecological and gender-based research should be promoted and increased for a more holistic understanding of farmer adaptation options. Keywords: vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, adaptation, food security, Muger sub- basin. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Above all, I would like to thank and give praise to Almighty God for giving me patience and health throughout all these years of doing my PhD. work. My sincere gratitude and thanks go to my supervisor Dr. Belay Simane for accepting me as his advisee and for his insightful scientific guidance, criticism, and suggestions from the inception of proposal development until the final work of the research, which has been very crucial for successful completion of this work. It is my sublime privilege to express my indebtedness for his ceaseless support throughout the course of the research work which is obviously tiresome. Dr. Belay, your support is not limited to the research work. I learned many things from you besides the Ph.D work, which would be a great help for my future career. Working with you is very enjoyable. I am also indebted to my friend Paulos Asrat for the countless discussions we had and for your unreserved scholarly support that improved the quality of the research work. Many other people contributed in my ways to the completion of this work. As always, it is difficult to mention everybody’s name. But I would like to say thank you all for your support and encouragements. Particularly, the encouragement I received from my friends-Reta Hailu, Teferi Tolera, and Wuletaw Mekuria, and my discussions with each of them in relation to my PhD work was fruitful. I would like to express my heartfelt thanks and sincere appreciation to Teferi Tolera and Wuletaw Mekuria for their scientific comments on the earlier version of this dissertation. You all are great friends and I enjoyed a lot being with you. Adugna Eneyew and Akalu Defisa also deserve special thanks for their kind cooperation. My sincere thanks go to the parents of Teferi Tolera for their hospitality showed to me during my data collection at Abuna Gindeberet District. Moreover, the sampled respondents, supervisors, enumerators, and other collaborated individuals deserve special thanks for their valuable work during data collection. No words can suffice to express my feelings of gratitude to my Sister Weyinshet Amare and her son Abel Yohanes for their generous assistance and helpful encouragement with all their kindness throughout my research work. The encouragement and support from my family have always been with me throughout my studies. I would like to address my heartfelt thanks and appreciation to my beloved wife Emu (Abaynesh Eshetu), for her encouragements. Emu, your support during that bad time we faced is uncountable. Words cannot express how indebted I am to our son, Nahom. Nahi you are the best gift that I have ever been given by God. I am indebted to my mother Hulugrgesh Zeleke, and my father Amare Woldeamanuel who eagerly anticipated the successful completion of my vi studies. The way you have grown me takes the lionshare of the character, behaviour and discipline I own today. I would like to express my heartfelt thanks and sincere appreciation to the Bureau of Agriculture and Rural Development of Meta Robi, Sululta, Kuyu, and Abuna Gindeberet districts for their facilitation during data collection of this research work. My home organization, College of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine of Jimma University, must be thanked for granting me study leave. Profound gratitude was pressed to Addis Ababa University; the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD), Germany; African Climate Change Fellowship Program; International Development Research Centre (IDRC) for their financial support in accomplishing

Load more