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Chapter Five Neoclassical Realism and the Syrian Civil War http://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/ Research Commons at the University of Waikato Copyright Statement: The digital copy of this thesis is protected by the Copyright Act 1994 (New Zealand). The thesis may be consulted by you, provided you comply with the provisions of the Act and the following conditions of use: Any use you make of these documents or images must be for research or private study purposes only, and you may not make them available to any other person. Authors control the copyright of their thesis. You will recognise the author’s right to be identified as the author of the thesis, and due acknowledgement will be made to the author where appropriate. You will obtain the author’s permission before publishing any material from the thesis. Oil, Gas and Geopolitical Dimensions of the Syrian Civil War: A Neoclassical Realist Assessment A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Social Sciences in International Relations and Security Studies at The University of Waikato by OLIVER THOMAS HARTLEY 2019 Abstract This thesis considers the geopolitical dimensions of the Syrian Civil War. It addresses three key questions, including: (1) how sectarianism in Syria has impacted the geopolitical landscape; (2) how Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have responded to political instability in Syria; (3) and how these stakeholder states have positioned themselves to gain influence over the global oil and gas trade in Syria, which has regional and international implications. Neoclassical realism is used to examine the role sectarianism has played in causing and perpetuating the Syrian Civil War. Historically, sectarianism has always played a role in the Syrian geopolitical landscape, but prior to the Syrian Civil War the Ba’athist party, under Bashar al-Assad’s leadership, was able to balance the interests of competing sectarian groups using the threat of military force and the promise of Pan-Arab liberal reform. The 2011 Arab Spring uprisings were the catalyst for the Syrian Civil War, and highlighted sectarian tensions between Alawite Shia, Sunni and Kurds. While initially united in their opposition to the Assad Government Arab Spring protesters split along sectarian lines, seeking support from allied states in the Middle East. Balance of power theory and the Heartland theory are used to explain the policy decisions of Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey in response to political instability in Syria. It is argued that these stakeholder states utilised existing sectarian alliances within Syria to gain strategic influence over Syria’s land power. This contains the potential for Syria to act as an energy corridor and makes it a contested territory for two competing pipeline projects that pre-date the Civil War: Iran-Iraq pipeline, favoured by Iran, and the Qatar-Turkey pipeline, favoured by Saudi Arabia and Turkey. ii Acknowledgements Firstly, I would like to thank my supervisor, Graduate Advisor (Political Science, Public Policy, International Relations and Security Studies) Dr Reuben Steff, who has provided me with invaluable insights throughout this project and given me understanding, support and encouragement throughout the years. I would like also to thank my Whānau and loved ones, who have shown and provided me with a sanctuary and love and support. Mylise Hartley, Greg Hartley, Elaine Hartley (Grandy), Sam Hartley, Christiana Hartley, Sue Hartley, Yvette Kemp and Bruce Kemp, and other family and Whānau members too numerous to mention, who contributed in their own ways to this project. My friends and University of Waikato colleagues must also be mentioned – having made the past few years bearable and interesting ones. Including but not limited to Marg Dobson, Anna Tashkoff, Tadhg Norgrove, Mary Melinn and Jillene Bydder. Finally, thanks must go to Dawn Marsh, for her foresight, continued help and support throughout the years she has been instrumental in keeping me on track to get the project completed. I cannot stress enough the thanks and appreciation I have had to all listed above, without your support completing this project would have been more than the challenge it was. iii Table of Contents Abstract ....................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements .................................................................................... iii Table of Contents ....................................................................................... iv List of Figures ........................................................................................... vii Introduction ................................................................................................ 1 Scope of the Thesis ................................................................................ 2 Focus................................................................................................... 2 Chapter One .............................................................................................. 5 International Relations Paradigms and their Relevance to the Syrian Civil War ............................................................................................................ 5 Liberalism ............................................................................................ 6 Liberalism interpretations .................................................................... 7 Neoliberalism .......................................................................................... 8 Neoliberalism’s interpretations of the Syrian Civil War ........................ 9 Constructivism ........................................................................................ 9 Constructivism’s interpretation of the Syrian Civil War ...................... 11 Realism ................................................................................................. 13 Classical realism ................................................................................... 13 Realism’s interpretations of the Syrian Civil War ............................... 14 Neorealism ........................................................................................... 16 Neorealism and balance of power theory .......................................... 16 Neoclassical realism: assumptions and concepts ................................. 18 Neoclassical realism and balance of power theory ............................ 19 Neoclassical realism’s interpretations of the Syrian Civil War ........... 22 Mackinder’s Heartland theory ............................................................... 22 Heartland theory interpretations ........................................................ 23 Conclusions .......................................................................................... 25 iv Chapter Two ............................................................................................ 26 Syria: A Historical Overview and the Sectarian Players ........................... 26 Syria: A Brief Historical Overview ......................................................... 26 Pre-civil war period ............................................................................ 26 Muslims in the Middle East Ethno-Religious groups in Syria ................ 27 Figure 1. Syria Ethno-Religious Composition* ................................... 28 Political environment of the Syrian domestic sphere ............................ 29 Sectarian groups of political influence within Syria ............................... 29 The Arab Alawite Shia ....................................................................... 29 The Arab Sunni ................................................................................. 31 The Kurds .......................................................................................... 32 The Arab Spring ................................................................................... 32 The Syrian Civil War ............................................................................. 33 Conclusion ............................................................................................ 33 Chapter Three .......................................................................................... 35 The Geopolitical Significance of Syria: A Case Study of Geography and Two Pipelines........................................................................................... 35 Mackinder’s Heartland Theory: Interpreting Syria’s Importance ........... 35 Syrian significance and the impact of oil and gas on the Middle East and Europe .................................................................................................. 36 Competing oil and gas pipelines through Syria ................................. 37 Conclusion ............................................................................................ 40 Chapter Four ............................................................................................ 42 Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey the Middle East stakeholder states .......... 42 Iran’s History / Background ................................................................... 42 Pre-civil war period ............................................................................ 42 Civil war period .................................................................................. 42 Iran’s Domestic sphere and Sectarian Considerations ......................... 43 Iran and regional security ....................................................................
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