FoodFood SecuritySecurity andand NutritionNutrition AnalysisAnalysis PostPost GuGu 20132013 i

Technical Series Report No VII. 51 October 18, 2013

FSNAUFSNAU Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia Information for Better Livelihoods

Technical Partners FSNAU Funding Agencies

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 Acknowledgement

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) of the Food and Agricultrue Organisation (FAO) for Somalia would like to thank our partners, including government ministries and focal points, local and international non-governmental

organisations (NGOs) and various United Nations (UN) agencies, for their technical participation (data collection and Acknowledgement analysis) and logistical support in this seasonal assessment and analysis. This assessment would not have been possible or as successful without this support. Partner participation continues to be a critical element within the seasonal assessment iii process that strengthens and adds credibility to the process and outcome.

A special acknowledgement is extended to field-based food security and nutrition analysts of FSNAU who continue to travel and work under very difficult security conditions in Somalia, to deliver information and analysis for the benefit of the Somali people. We would also like to thank the enumerators based in Somalia, who contributed significantly to data collection during the assessment.

WFP United Nations World Food Programme

Technical Partners Participating in the Post Gu 2013 Assessment

UN Organizations World Food Programme (WFP), Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

Technical Partners Farmine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), Joint Research Center (JRC) of the European Commission.

Government Ministries and Local Authorities Ministry of Agriculture of Somaliland, Ministry of Fisheries of Somaliland, Ministry of Livestock of Somaliland, Ministry of Environment & Pastoral Development of Somaliland, Ministry of Planning & National Development of Somaliland, Ministry of Labor of Somaliland, Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation of Puntland, Ministry of Interior of Puntland Ministry of Women Development and Family Affairs of Puntland, Ministry of Environment, Wildlife and Tourism of Puntland, Ministry of Livestock of Puntland

International NGO’s Care international, Oxfam GB, Norwegian Church Aid (NRA), Solidarities, African Development Solution (ADESO), Save the Children International(SCI), Horn of Africa Volunteer Youth Organization (HAVOYOCO), TAAKULO, Horn of Africa, Candle Light, Somtrag, Agency for Peace and Development (APD), Somali lifeline organization (SOLO), Juba development organization (JDO), Wamo relief &rehabilitation Services (WRRS), Somali Aid foundation (SAF)), Somali Youth for Peace and Democracy (SYPD), Daryeel Awareness an Development Organization(DAADO), Bay Women Development Network (BWDN), Onkod Relief and Development Organization (ORDO), Dalsan Development and Relief Organization (DDRO), Development Action Network (DAN), Rural and Environmental Development Organization (REDO), Doloow Farming Cooperative Society (FCS), Somali Relief and Development Organization (SORDES), Juba Light Organization, Somali Red crescent society (SRCS), YADA, Aragti Relief Development Organization (ARDO) and Iimaan Relief Development Organization (IRDO )

National Institutions Humanitarian Aid Disaster Management Agency (HADMA), National Environment Research and Drought (NERAD)

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Executive Summary 1

1.1 Key Findings 1 Table of contents Table 2. Analytical Processes and Methods 6 iv 3. Sector Analysis 8 3.1 Climate 8 3.2 Civil Insecurity 9 3.3 Agriculture 9 3.4 Livestock 13 3.5 Markets and Trade 14 3.6 Nutrition Situation Overview 15

4. Integrated Food Security Analysis 18 4.1 Somalia’s Urban Food Security Situation 18 4.2 Food Security Situation in IDP Settlements 19 4.3 Somalia’s Rural Food Security Situation 22 4.3.1 Gedo Region 22 4.3.2 Lower and Middle Juba Regions 23 4.3.3 Bay and Bakool Regions 25 4.3.4 Lower and Middle Shabelle Regions 27 4.3.5 Hiran Region 30 4.3.6 Central Regions 31 4.3.7 Northeast Regions 33 4.3.8 Northwest Regions 35

5. Appendices 37 5.1.1 Background of The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 37 5.2 Time-Series of IPC Maps For Somalia 40 5.2.1 Time-Series of IPC Combined (Rural, Urban And (IPC) Maps For Somalia 40 5.3 Progression of Humanitarian Situation from Post Deyr 2012/’13 To Post Gu 2013 41 5.3.1 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Gedo Region From Deyr 2012/13 To Post Post Gu 2013 41 5.3.2 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, L And M Juba Regions From Post Deyr 2012/13 To Post Gu 2013 42 5.3.3 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Bakool Region From Post Deyr 2012/13 To Post Gu 2013 43 5.3.4 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Bay Region From Post Deyr 2012/13 To Post Gu 2013 44 5.3.5 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Middle Shabelle Region from Post Deyr 2012/13 To Post Gu 2013 45 5.3.6 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Lower Shabelle Region from Post Deyr 2012/13 To Post Gu 2013 46 5.3.7 Progression of The Rural Humanitarian Situation, Hiiran Region from Post Deyr 2012/13 To Post Gu 2013 47 5.3.8 Progression of The Rural Humanitarian Situation, Central Regions from Post Deyr 2012/13 To Post Gu 2013 48 5.3.9 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Northeast Regions from Post Deyr 2012/13 To Post Gu 2013 49 5.3.9 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Northeast Regions from Post Deyr 2012/13 To Post Gu 2013 Continued 50 5.3.10 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, Northwest Regions from Post Deyr 2012/13 To Post Gu 2013 51 5.4 Post Gu 2013 Estimated Population In Acute Food Insecurity by District (Aug-Dec 2013) 53 5.4.1 Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by District, Aug-Dec 2013 53 5.4.2 Estimated Urban Population in Acute Food Insecurity by District, Aug-Dec 2013 55 5.4.3 Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zones, Aug-Dec 2013 57 5.5 Factors That Determined the July-December 2013 IPC in Urban Livelihoods of Somalia 59 5.6 Factors That Determined the July-December 2013 IPC in IDP Settlements of Somalia 60 5.7 Urban and IDP Survey Data Collection Points 60 5.8 Factors That Determined the July-December 2013 IPC in Rural Livelihoods of Somalia 61 5.8.1 Gedo Region Livelihood Zones 61 5.8.2 Juba Regions Livelihood Zones 62 5.8.3 Bay and bakool Regions Livelihood Zones 63

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 5.8.4 Shabelle Regions Livelihood Zones 64 5.8.5 Hiran Region Livelihood Zones 65 5.8.6 Central Regions Livelihood Zones 66 5.8.7 Northeast Regions Livelihood Zones 67 5.8.8 Northeast Regions Livelihood Zones 67 Table of contents Table 5.9 Post Gu 2013 Assesment/Analysis/Reporting Timeline 68 5.10 List Of Partners Who Participated In the Food Security Post Gu 2013 Overall Timeline Assessment 69 5.11 Post Gu 2013 Food Security Seasonal Assessment Field Access, Sampling And Reliability of Data 71 v

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Somalia integrated Food Security Phase Classification, Population Numbers, Jul 2013 2 Table 2: Somalia integrated Food Security Phase Classification (Projected) Numbers,Aug-Dec 2013 2 Table 3: Distribution of Rural and Urban Population in Crisis, Aug-Dec 2013 3 Table 4: Number of Post-Gu 2013 Food Security Assessments 7 Table 5: Gu 2013 Cereal Production Estimates in Southern Somalia 10 Table 6: Gu-Karan 2012 Cereal Production Estimates in Northwest 11 Table 7: Gu Other Crop Production Estimates in Somalia 11 Table 8: Cereal Balance Sheet of Somalia for The 2013 Calendar Year 12 Table 9: Estimated Number of Under Five Children with Acute Malnutrition in Gu 2013 and Change from Deyr 2012-13 15 Table 10: Somalia, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity in Urban Livelihoods, Aug-Dec 2013 20 Table 11: Gedo Region, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013 23 Table 12: Juba Regions, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013 25 Table 13: Bay And Bakool Regions, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013 27 Table 14: Shabelle Regions, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013 29 Table 15: Hiran Region, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013 31 Table 16: Central Regions, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013 33 Table 17: Northeast Regions, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013 34 Table 18: Northwest Regions, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013 36 Table 19: Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table for Area Classification 38 Table 20: Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table for Household Group Classification 39

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 LIST OF MAPS

Map 1: Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Situation, July 2013 4 Map 2: Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Situation, (Projected) Most Likely Scenario, Aug - Dec 2013 5 Map 3: Somalia Gu 2013 Assessment Field Coverage 7 Table of contents Table Map 4: Mar-Jun 2013 Cumulative Seasonal Rainfall 8 Map 5: Mar-Jun, 2013 Rainfall as % of Long Term Mean (1999-2011) 8 vi Map 6: June 2013, NDVI, Difference From The Long Term Mean (2000-2012) 8 Map 7: Climate Outlook Forum Rainfall Forecast (Sep – Dec 2013) 8 Map 8: Somalia Insecurity Outcomes/Projection, Jul-Dec 2013 9 Map 9: Somalia, Rangeland Conditions And Livestock Migration, Gu 2013 13 Map 10: Nutrition Situation Estimates, Aug 2012 17 Map 11: Nutrition Situation Estimates, Aug 2013 17 Map 12: Nutrition Situation Estimates, Sep-Oct 2013 17 Map 13: Livelihood Zones of Somalia 72

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Gu Cereal Production (1995-2013) Southern Regions 9 Figure 2: Regional Contribution of Cereal Production Gu 2013 10 Figure 3: Regional Contribution of Sorghum Production Gu 2013 10 Figure 4: Regional Contribution of Maize Production Gu 2013 10 Figure 5: Gu/Karan Cereal Estimates (1998-2013) 11 Figure 6: Regional Trends in Local Quality Cattle Price in South and Northwest 13 Figure 7: Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices (SoSh/SlSh) 13 Figure 8: Annual Livestock Exports Trends (2007-2012) in Berbera and Bossaso Ports 14 Figure 9: Comparison of Rice Prices Bangkok (FOB), Mogadishu and Bossaso 14 Figure 10: Comparison of Diesel Prices (Asia Dubai), Mogadishu and Bossaso 14 Figure 11: Consumer Price Index 14 Figure 12: Terms of Trade Daily Labour to Cereal 18 Figure 13: Food Consumption Score Trend: Banadir 18 Figure 14: Expenditure Pattern of Urban Households in the Southern Somalia 19 Figure 15: Length of IDP Household Residency by Settlements 20 Figure 16: IDP Household Dietary Diversity Score 21 Figure 17: Households Employing Severe or/and Very Severe Coping Strategies by Gender 21 Figure 18: IDP Household Expenditure Pattern 21 Figure 19: ToT Daily Labor Rate to Sorghum 22 Figure 20: ToT Goat Local Quality to Red Sorghum 22 Figure 21: ToT Daily Labor Rate to White Maize (Lower Juba) 24 Figure 22: ToT Daily Labor Rate to White Maize (Middle Juba) 24 Figure 23: ToT Labor Rate Agriculture to Red Sorghum (Bay Bakool) 26 Figure 24: ToT Local Quality Goat to Red Sorghum (Bakool) 26 Figure 25: ToT Daily Labor Rate to White Maize (Middle Shabelle) 28 Figure 26: ToT Daily Labor Rate to White Maize (Lower Shabelle) 29 Figure 27: ToT Daily Labor Rate to White Maize (Middle Shabelle) 29 Figure 28: ToT Goat Local Quality to White Sorghum 30 Figure 29: ToT Goat Local Quality to Imported Red Rice 32 Figure 30: ToT Goat Local Quality to Imported Red Rice (Garowe & Bossaso) 34 Figure 31: ToT Goat Local Quality to Imported Red Rice 35

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 LIST OF ACRONYMS

CBS Cereal Balance Sheet SMART Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of CMB Cost of Minimum Expenditure Basket Relief and Transitions TList of Acronyms CMR Crude Mortality Rate SoSh Somali Shilling CPI Consumer Price Index SPSS Statistical Package for the Social Sciences vii ENA Emergency Nutrition Assessment SSR Self Sufficiency Ratio ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation ToT Terms of Trade FAO Food and Agriculture Organization U5DR Under-five death rates FCS Food Consumption Score UAE United Arab Emirates FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network UN United Nations FGD Focus Group Discussions UNDP United Nations Development Programme FSNAU Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit UNHCR United Nations High Commission for GAM Global Acute Malnutrition Refugees HDDS Household Dietary Diversity Score USD United States Dollar HIS Health Information Systems WDHs Households Dependent on Women for Food ICPAC IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications or Income to Buy Food Centre WFP World Food Programme IDP Internally Displaced Persons IDR Import Dependency Ratio IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development IPC Integrated Phase Classification IYCF Infant and Young Children Feeding KI Key informant LTA Long Term Average MDHs Households Dependent on Men for Food or Income to Buy Food MEB Minimum Expenditure Basket MSF Medicins Sans Frontieres MUAC Mid Upper Arm Circumference NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index OCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs PCCC Per Capita Cereal Consumption PET Pictorial Evaluation Tools PHL Post Harvest Losses PMT Population Movement Tracking PWA Post War Average SAM Severe Acute Malnutrition SIP Southern Inland Pastoral SLIMS Somali Livelihood Indicator Monitoring System SlSh Somaliland Shilling

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 viii Executive Summary

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1 KEY FINDINGS

In June-July 2013, the FSNAU in collaboration with regional Persistent Malnutrition Executive Summary governments and several partner agencies carried out Critical levels of acute malnutrition (Global Acute food security and nutrition assessments across Somalia. Malnutrition rates exceeding 15%) persist in many parts of The purpose of the assessment was to gather information South-Central Somalia and among IDPs. Nutrition survey 1 required for food security and nutrition situation analysis results indicate that more than 206 000 children under the for rural and urban populations and internally displaced age of five are acutely malnourished. About two-thirds persons (IDP). The livelihoods based analysis provided of these children are in Southern Somalia, where very high a snap-shot food security situation analysis for July 2013 rates of malnutrition persist. Assessment results indicate and projections for the period of August to December that morbidity is a major factor behind the critical levels of 2013. The food security analysis followed a standardized acute malnutrition in South-Central Somalia and among IDP Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) approach. populations. As a result, lifesaving humanitarian assistance and livelihood support remain vitally important between Results of the post-Gu 2013 assessment indicate that July and December 2013 to help food insecure populations the number of people in crisis in Somalia is at its lowest meet their immediate food needs, protect livelihoods, and since famine was declared in Somalia in 2011, thanks to build resilience. successive seasons of average to above average rainfall, low food prices and sustained humanitarian response. Areas of Concern However, acute malnutrition continues to pose a threat IDPs constitute 72 percent of the 870 000 people in Crisis to hundreds of thousands of children especially in the and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4). Most of these people country’s southern region, latest findings indicate. live in settlements in very poor living conditions and rely on marginal, unreliable livelihood strategies. For agropastoral Accordingly, an estimated 870 000 people will be in Crisis households in Hiran, central Somalia, an early end to the (IPC Phases 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) from March to June Gu rains along with poor distribution resulted August to December 2013. The situation has significantly in a very low harvest. Poor households currently have no improved since 2011 when 4 million Somalis were in cereal stocks. They depend on market purchases of food, extreme food security crisis. often on credit or on limited amounts of social support. Poor households are expected to fall into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) The recent figures also represent a continued improvement during the October to December lean season. since January 2013 when an estimated 1 050 000 people were in Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4). Poor pastoral households in Coastal Deeh, in central Improvements are attributed to a near average July/August Somalia are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) 2013 Gu harvest, increased livestock prices, increased through at least the end of the year 2013. Low livestock livestock herd sizes, improved milk availability, low prices ownership will limit their income. With limited access to of both local and imported staple food commodities, higher humanitarian assistance, many households are taking on purchasing power from income from labor and livestock additional debts to buy food. sales, and sustained humanitarian interventions over the last six months. In the Sool Plateau Pastoral Livelihood Zone in northeastern Somalia, poor households are likely to divert funds to However, nearly 2.3 million additional people, one-third purchase water during the remainder of the Hagaa dry of Somalia’s population, beyond those requiring more season through October. High water expenditures are likely urgent assistance, is classified as Stressed (IPC Phase to increase debts among the poor. Improved milk and water 2) and their food security remains fragile. This group of availability will follow the start of the October to December households may struggle to meet their own minimal food Deyr rains. However, most poor households are likely to requirement through the end of the year, and they remain remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). highly vulnerable to major shocks that could push them back to food security crisis. As critical levels of malnutrition persist in many areas, care for the malnourished will be less available in the areas of South-Central Somalia following the withdrawal of Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) over security concerns.

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 2

Executive Summary Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical Series ReportNo. VII 51 Table 1: SomaliaIntegratedFoodSecurityPhaseClassification,PopulationNumbers,Jul2013 Table SomaliaIntegratedFoodSecurityPhaseClassification(Projected),PopulationNumbers, 2: designed to collect long-term cumulative IDP data to avoid double counting, only IDPs in Settlements (Bossasso, Berbera, Galkayo, Hargeisa, Garowe, Kismayo, Afgoye, Burao Burao Afgoye, Emergency. or Crisis in Kismayo, either Garowe, them 2005) classify to Hargeisa, (UNDP/WHO 7,502,654 at Galkayo, assessments estimated Berbera, specific Somalia of provided IDP conduct population 4 Total not (Bossasso, not does FSNAU is Crisis. in which estimates Settlements data in population IDPs Tracking overall only the in Movement counting, official considered are Population double on the Mogadishu avoid to and based are data are IDP they estimates as IDP cumulative 5,000. long-term nearest the collect to estimates to rounded 2012 designed 18, January population updated IDP New in these population of UN-OCHA/UNHCR: round inclusive Source are not 3 and migration, does anticipated or FSNAU current 2005. Emergency considering 1, and not Crisis population Stressed, August resident on based thousand, five Somalia, nearest the to UNDP rounded are numbers Estimated 2 Region/District, by UNDP by Estimates Population Source: 1 Notes: Banadir Grand Total Juba Hoose(Lower) Juba Dhexe (Middle) Gedo Bay Bakool Shabelle Hoose(Lower) (Middle) Shabelle Dhexe South Hiraan Galgaduud Central South Mudug North Mudug Nugaal Bari Sool Sanaag Togdheer Woqooyi Galbeed North Awdal Banadir Grand Total Juba Hoose(Lower) (Middle) Juba Dhexe Gedo Galgaduud South Mudug North Mudug Bay Bakool (Middle) Shabelle Dhexe Hiraan South Central Nugaal (Lower) Shabelle Hoose Bari Sool Sanaag Togdheer Woqooyi Galbeed Awdal North *Dhobley, Baidoa,Bossaso, Berbera, Dhuusamarreeb, Galkayo, Hargeisa, Garowe, Kismayo, Mogadishu andBurao Region *Dhobley, Baidoa,Bossaso, Berbera, Dhuusamarreeb, Galkayo, Hargeisa, Garowe, Kismayo, Mogadishu and Burao Region Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total IDP insettlements* (outofUNHCR1.1million) to avoid double counting Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total IDP insettlements* (outofUNHCR1.1million) to avoid double counting Assessed andContingency Population inCrisisandEmergency Assessed andContingency Population inCrisisandEmergency Estimated Rural, UrbanandIDPpopulation incrisis Assessed Rural population inCrisisandEmergency UNDP 2005Total UNDP 2005Total Estimated Rural, UrbanandIDPpopulation incrisis Population Assessed Rural population inCrisisandEmergency 3,579,597 7,502,654 2,534,165 901,183 487,709 385,790 238,877 328,378 330,057 157,652 192,447 620,562 310,627 514,901 329,811 145,341 850,651 367,638 150,277 270,367 402,295 700,345 305,455 Population 3,579,597 7,502,654 2,534,165 901,183 487,709 385,790 238,877 328,378 620,562 310,627 850,651 514,901 329,811 330,057 157,652 192,447 145,341 367,638 150,277 270,367 402,295 700,345 305,455 Assessed Urbanpopulation inCrisis Assessed Urbanpopulation inCrisis

UNDP 2005Urban UNDP 2005 Population 2,895,568 1,122,579 786,632 901,183 124,682 126,813 172,714 179,633 123,402 490,432 110,942 85,174 54,739 81,302 58,977 26,197 68,208 61,438 95,831 69,113 54,749 39,134 56,079 Urban Population 2,895,568 1,122,579 901,183 786,632 124,682 126,813 172,714 179,633 123,402 490,432 110,942 85,174 54,739 81,302 61,438 95,831 69,113 58,977 26,197 68,208 54,749 39,134 56,079

Population 2005 Rural 2,792,965 4,607,086 1,411,586

402,535 261,108 184,138 247,076 271,080 131,455 124,239 493,749 249,189 419,070 260,698 677,937 188,005 278,893 111,143 214,288 209,913 194,513 UNDP 2005Rural 90,592 UNDP - Population 2,792,965 4,607,086 1,411,586 402,535 261,108 184,138 247,076 493,749 249,189 677,937 419,070 260,698 271,080 131,455 124,239 188,005 111,143 214,288 278,893 209,913 194,513 90,592 -

Urban in Stressed 425,000 985,000 305,000 200,000 135,000 125,000 55,000 35,000 40,000 35,000 35,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 50,000 40,000 70,000 20,000 35,000 50,000 15,000 15,000 25,000

Urban in Stressed 425,000 985,000 200,000 305,000 135,000 125,000 55,000 35,000 40,000 35,000 50,000 40,000 70,000 20,000 35,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 35,000 15,000 15,000 50,000 25,000

Rural inStressed 1,315,000

835,000 399,000 155,000 240,000 81,000 60,000 50,000 85,000 55,000 26,000 25,000 24,000 85,000 95,000 65,000 60,000 65,000 60,000 40,000 70,000 55,000 1,290,000 Stressed 815,000 400,000 155,000 210,000 Rural in 75,000 60,000 50,000 85,000 85,000 95,000 75,000 50,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 60,000 40,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000

-

- Number affected Number affected 870,000 625,000 200,000 45,000 825,000 625,000 155,000 45,000 Urban in 15,000 45,000 30,000 10,000 30,000 Urban in 5,000 Crisis 15,000 45,000 10,000 30,000 30,000 5,000 Crisis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Rural inCrisis 105,000 Rural in 60,000 30,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 20,000 40,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Crisis % ofTotal population 25,000 60,000 20,000 15,000 25,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

- 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

- % ofTotal population 11 1 8 2

Emergency Urban in 12 8 3 1

Emergency Urban in 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Distribution ofpopulations incrisis Emergency Rural in 50,000 95,000 33,000 12,000 20,000 13,000 45,000 7,000 5,000 5,000 Distribution ofpopulations incrisis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

- Emergency Rural in 50,000 95,000 33,000 12,000 45,000 20,000 13,000 5,000 7,000 5,000 Aug-Dec 2013 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

- Emergency as%ofTotal 100% 76% 19% 5%

Total inCrisisand 100% 72% 23% 5% Emergency as%of

Total inCrisisand population Total population 11 18 15 13 10 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 9 0 1 2 0 2

11 11 15 10 3 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 0 2 0 0 2 0 1 2

Table 3: Distribution of Rural and Urban Population in Crisis, Aug-Dec 2013

Population in Estimated Population by Total in Crisis & Livelihood system Stressed Crisis Emergency Crisis as% of Livelihood Zones Emergency Total Agro-Pastoral 1,987,062 655,000 70,000 0 70,000 35

Fishing 17,779 0 0 0 0 0 Executive Summary Pastoral 2,136,657 540,000 32,000 0 32,000 16 Riverine 366,683 120,000 3,000 0 3,000 2 3 Destitute pastoral 98,906 0 0 95,000 95,000 48 Grand Total 4,607,086 1,315,000 105,000 95,000 200,000 100

Population in UNDP 2005 Total UNDP 2005 Rural Total in Crisis & Zone Stressed Crisis Emergency Crisis as% of Population Population Emergency Total

Central 542,509 402,535 105,000 30,000 40,000 70,000 35

North East 650,626 402,836 85,000 5,000 0 5,000 3

South 4,480,780 2,792,965 835,000 60,000 50,000 110,000 55

North West 1,828,739 1,008,750 290,000 10,000 5,000 15,000 8

Grand Total 7,502,654 4,607,086 1,315,000 105,000 95,000 200,000 100

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 4

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h B u e b C y a a l a n l u Rural Urban Total l a Rural Urban Total SoSomaliamalia A Acutecute F Foodood InsecurityInsecurity Situation Situatio nOverview Overview IPC RuraRural,l, Urb aUrbann & I D&P IDP Po Populations:pulations: AAugustugus t- - December,Decemb e2013,r, 20 13Most M oLikelyst L ikScenarioely Scenario Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Map 2: Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Situation (Projected), Most Likely Scenario, Aug - Dec 2013

35,000 (7%) Total Urban Rural Calula 15,000 (1%) Total Bossaso Urban !!. ! Executive Summary Rural Qandala Las Qoray/ Zeylac Badhan Bossaaso Lughaye !.Ceerigaabo AWDAL ! Iskushuban 5 Baki ! Berbera X Borama W. GALBEED SANAG Boroma Ceel Afweyne Ceerigaabo BARI !. Sheikh Aggregate Numbers Rural and Urban Populations Gebiley Hargeysa Burco ! in Phases 1,2,3,4 & 5 !. !! !. ! !! Qardho Phase % of (000s) Hargeysa Owdweyne Xudun Bandar Beyla Total Pop Caynabo Talex TOGDHEER 1 65% 4,958 Burco SOOL X

Laas CaanoodLaas Caanood Garowe !. 2 32% 2,300 Buuhoodle !!.Garoowe

3 2% 150 Eyl NUGAL Burtinle X 4 1% 95

Galkacyo Jariiban Goldogob 5 0% 0 50,000 (15%) Galkacyo Total !!!. Urban Rural =10% of the population 35,000 (10%) Total Urban Cadaado MUDUG Rural 0 (0%) Hobyo Total Cabudwaaq Urban Rural !.!!Dhuusamareeb 35,000 (11%) X Total Dhusa Mareeb Urban Rural GALGADUD Belet Weyne Harardheere Ceel Barde !. Beled Weyne BAKOOL X Ceel Bur Rab- Xudur Dhuure !.Xudur Ceel Dheere Dolo w HIIRAN

Luuq o

l X

Wajid g a Bulo Barde e

w y

a a Aden Yabal H Garbaharey Baydhaba T d Jalalaqsi le !. e Baydhaba Cadale B Garbaharey !. !! Jowhar M. SHABELLE Qansax BAY !. GEDO Dheere Wanle Weyne Jowhar X

Ceel Waq Bur Hakaba Balcad Dinsor Afgoye Baardheere !! BANADIR Qoryoley Sakow !. A Kurtun Warrey Marka Y M. JUBA Bu'aale Sablale N !. L. SHABELLE

E Bu'aale Brava !! Dobley 65,000 (3%) K Total L. JUBA Urban Afmadow Jilib Rural

Jamaame

!.Kismayo Kismayo

10,000 (2%) Total Badhadhe Urban Rural Destitute pastoral population

± Area would likely be at least 1 Phase worse without effects of humanitarioan 0 35 70 140 210 280 350 assistance

Kilometers

Technical Partners FSNAU Funding Agencies

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsnau.org P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-4000000 fax:254-20-4000555 FSNAU is managed by FAO The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986.

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 2. ANALYTICAL PROCESSES AND METHODS

This Technical Series Report provides the findings of the Post Field Access Gu 2013 season food security situation analysis for July 2013 Field access for food security assessments was good in as well as projections for the period August to December 2013. northern regions, Banadir, Mudug and parts of Galgadud, Hiran, Analytical Processes and Methods The report focuses on the outcomes of the Gu season rains Gedo, Bay and Lower Juba regions. The rest of the southern (April – June) and includes sector specific analysis (Climate, regions were not directly accessible. In these areas without 6 Civil Insecurity, Agriculture, Livestock, Market, Gender and field access, data was collected through teleconferencing Nutrition), integrated food security analysis for urban and rural with key informants and focus group discussions (FGD) [Map livelihoods, as well as for the IDPs residing in settlements 3]. Representative nutrition assessments were conducted in accross Somalia. most parts of the country with the exception of parts of Gedo, Bakool, Hiran and all of the Shabelle regions, which were Gu 2013 seasonal assessments and surveys were carried out inaccessible due to insecurity. by 15 FSNAU food security and 12 nutrition field analysts with the support of 426 field enumerators, supervisors and guides; Fieldwork and Assessment Methods and in collaboration with 96 staff from different agencies and The fieldwork for the rural areas was carried out during organizations, including UN agencies (10), various government the period July 11-25, 2013. IDP and urban surveys were ministries (14), national institutions (4), local authorities (14), conducted from the 1st of June to the 20th of July 2013. FSNAU local NGOs (31) and international NGOs (6). The assessment staff, partners and enumerators collected data through rapid also engaged 15 government staff seconded to FSNAU as assessments, including pictorial evaluation tools (PET); part its capacity development effort. The analysis involved qualitative techniques such as focus group discussions staff from FSNAU partners including FEWS NET (4), WFP (1), (FGD), key informant (KI) interviews and field observations. OCHA (1), JRC/EC (1) and Food Security Cluster (1). Representative joint food security and nutrition household surveys were conducted in eleven major IDP settlements In the lead up to the post-Gu 2013 assessment, FSNAU field across the country, including Dobley, Baidoa, Berbera, analysts conducted preliminary assessments in the last week Bossaso, Burao, Dusamareb, Galkayo, Garowe, Hargeisa, of May 2013 for the initial indications of Gu 2013 seasonal Mogadishu and Qardho. Food security of urban population outcomes in terms of rainfall impact on rangelands, crops as was assessed in Mogadishu, using representative household well as an overall livelihood situation. The report focusing on survey, and in other urban areas of southern Somalia, using post-Gu 2013 season early warning was released on 20th June rapid assessment techniques (FGDs with urban poor). The 2013. FSNAU also carried out regular monthly monitoring urban areas in North and Central were not assessed this time across Somalia. Most importantly, FSNAU collected market round due to overall improved food security situation over price data from 47 main markets and 51 rural markets from the past few seasons, stable security situation and improved all regions of the country. Analysis of the post-Gu 2013 macro-economic environment. assessment data were supplemented and triangulated with data from secondary sources, including monthly market price A total of 8 693 IDP household questionnaires and 297 urban data, FSNAU/ FEWS NET baseline analysis and livelihood household questionnaires (Mogadishu) were completed using profiles, health information systems (HIS), remote sensing, digital pen technology and paper-based questionnaires. import/export data from three major ports of Somalia, food aid In these representative household surveys gender- data from Food Security Cluster and other partners, conflict disaggregated data was also acquired (households dependent and IDP data from the United Nations High Commissioner for on men, women or both for food or income to buy food. This Refugees (UNHCR) and the United Nations (UN) Office for gender-disaggregation replaced the previously used approach the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). The data of disaggregating households by female-headed and male- collection process involved fieldwork, field observations and headed households, which complicated gender analysis in teleconferencing with key informants in areas with restricted that the number of households (culturally) said to be headed access. For a complete listing of partners and full timeline, by men were, in some cases, in reality run by women. For including regional level meetings see Appendix 5.10. data analysis, FSNAU used Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). Analytical Processes and Timeline Gu 2013 Food Security Assessment Planning From the extensive rapid assessment fieldwork, the number The Post Gu assessment Technical Partner Planning of data collection instruments completed included: 370 from meeting was held in Nairobi on June 10, 2013. The purpose agricultural livelihoods, 578 from pastoral livelihoods and of the meeting was to plan partner participation in the rural 144 from urban livelihoods. A list of instruments used in assessments, to review assessment instruments and to the assessment can be accessed at http://www.fsnau.org/ coordinate and plan fieldwork logistics. Prior to the actual analytical-approach fieldwork, Regional Partner Planning Workshops, designed to train participants in the use of field instruments and to plan field Nutrition Assessments logistics, were held on July 8-10, 2013 in Hargeisa, Garowe, FSNAU and partner agencies conducted a total of 42 nutrition Galkayo, Dhobley, Dolow and Mogadishu. surveys based on the Standardized Monitoring and Assessment of Relief and Transitions (SMART) methodology. A total of

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 Assessment Access Map and Field Monitoring Location Data DEYR 2012/13 Assessment 34 415 boys and girls aged 6-59 months were assessed on Map 3: Somalia Gu 2013 Assessment Field Coverage their nutritional status, and a similar number of households Alula " Gulf of Aden DJIBOUTI " for retrospective (90 days) death rates. Analysis of nutritional Kandala Zeylac Bosaso LughayeX " Badhan status and retrospective death rates were conducted using Awdal " Iskushuban Berbera Borama Baki Sanag X El Afwein Bari Sheikh X Erigavo the EpiInfo and Emergency Nutrition Assessment (ENA) " Woq. Galbeed X X Gabiley X X H"argeisa " X Gardo Bender Beila

Odweine Analytical Processes and Methods software, respectively. Burco Caynaba Togdheer XuXdun Taleh Sool

X " Buhodle Lasanod "Garowe The Somalia Nutrition situation analytical framework was X Nugal 7 used in the interpretation of findings. For details, refer to the Burtinle Eyl

JXariban Post Gu 2013 Nutrition Technical Series Report, September Goldogob Galkayo ETHIOPIA " 20, 2013 on the FSNAU website, http://fsnau.org/products/ " Adado Mudug technical-series. Hobyo Abudwaq X " Dusa Mareb Indian Ocean Galgadud " Haradhere " Food Security Analysis El Barde Belet Weyne XEl Bur X BaXkol Rab-Dhuure X Hiran Regional Analysis Workshops were held in Hargeisa and Hudur Dolo El Der " BuloX Burti " "Luuq Wajid Tieglo Garowe from July 29, 2013 to August 4, 2013. The All Team Aden Yabal Belet Hawa JalaXlaqsi X Garbahare Baidoa Adale X " Analysis Workshop was conducted in Hargeisa during August Gedo " M. Shabelle Qansah Dere X Wanle WeyneJo"whar El Waq X Bay X Bur Hakaba Balad 12-23, 2013. The Analysis Workshop brought together the full " X Afgoye " Bardera Dinsor Qoryoley XBa"nadir L. ShabXelleMogadishu FSNAU field team, government focal points and a number of Sakow " " Kurtun Warrey Marka

A X M. Juba Gu 2013 Assessment Coverage partners to conduct the analysis and to vet the preliminary Y Sablale Gu 2012 Assessment Coverage N Buale Brava E Normal food security assessment access K X results. In the analysis workshop, all data sources mentioned Afmadow Jilib FSNAU Observation and Enumerator Teleconferencing X" X Enumerator and Key Informants Teleconferencing above were used to project the food security situation for L. Juba JamXame Rapid nutrition assesments (MUAC) Kismayo " August-December 2013. FSNAU applied a livelihoods Nutrition surveys

Badhadhe approach to the analysis. IPC Version 2.0 analysis worksheets Regular Monitoring Data Locations Nutrition surveys conducted October- December, 2012 " Main market data nodes were used to organize and consolidate all field-level and X ± Livelihood data nodes (SLIMS) Note: Due to security concerns of using Sateline phones, FSNAU Field secondary data, as well as to analyze comprehensively Analysts were not able to obtain GPS coordinates 30 15 0 30 60 90 120

Ki lom ete rs all available evidence and arrive at an area (livelihood) Technical Partner Funding Agencies Swiss Agency for st Development and September 1 , 2013 in Mogadishu. The Coanalysisoperation SDC of Northwest and household level food security classifications using IPC Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia http://w ww.fsnau.org P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-4000000 fax:254-20-4000555 FSNAU is managed by FAO The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986. approach. and Northeast were presented to the respective governments on September 1st, 2013 in Hargeisa and Garowe. The post- Vetting and Presentation of Results Gu 2013 food security and nutrition assessment results were The outcomes of All Team Analysis were vetted with technical presented in a special meeting with partners, donors and partners in Nairobi. Specifically, nutrition results were vetted other stakeholders on September 3, 2013 in Nairobi. on August 27, 2013 while the integrated food security analysis was vetted on August 28, 2013. The post-Gu 2013 results The Post Gu 2013 assesment, analysis and reporting timeline were presented to the federal government of Somalia on is provided in Appendix 5.9 of this report. Table 4: Number of Post-Gu 2013 Food Security Assessments

Rural livelihoods Urban livelihoods IDP Settlements Region FGD-based assessments by FGD-based assessments Household Household Surveys livelihood zones by livelihood zones Surveys North Awdal 3 Woqooyi Galbeed 4 2 Togdheer 4 1 Sanaag 3 Sool 3 Bari 4 1 Nugaal 4 Sub-total 25 4 Central Mudug 4 1 Galgadud 4 1 Sub-total 8 2 South Hiraan 4 3 Middle Shabelle 4 3 Lower Shabelle 5 3 Bakool 3 3 Bay 2 3 1 Gedo 4 3 Middle Juba 3 3 Lower Juba 4 3 2 Sub-total 29 24 3 Banadir 1 1 Grand Total 62 24 1 10

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 8

Sectors Somalia, includingHiran,Bakool, BayandGedoregions. Dec) performance in the northern, central and parts of southern likelihood ofnearnormaltobelow normalDeyrrainfall(Oct- with partnersfortheGreaterHornof Africa (IGAD) ClimatePredictionand Applications Centre(ICPAC) incollaboration 1 The Forumwasheld byIntergovernmental Authority forDevelopment According tothe35 fsnau.org/downloads/Climate-Update-August-2013.pdf (Issue Sep2013)availablefromthefollowinglink: systems of the country can be viewed in Climate Update and normalizedvegetationindexgraphsbyvariouslivelihood pastoral andagropastoralregions(Map6). The rainfallestimate to deteriorationofbiomassinsmallpocketsthesouthern season (June2013).However,earlycessationofrainsled normal vegetationconditionswereprevalentbyendoftheGu dry conditionsinthelivelihood(Maps4and5).Generally, alleviating theimpactofprolongedtwo-year(2011-2012) received unusual good rains between late MarchandJune, normally receives only the Awdal regions.GubanPastorallivelihoodinNorthwest,which and Northwest Agropastoral livelihoodsofW. Galbeedand average Lower and Middle Juba, as well as Lower Shabelle. Above which aretypicaltothesoutherncoastalareas,werepoorin through June2013.Incontrast,Hagaarains(July-August), Juba, ShabelleandBayregionswhereGurainscontinued (mid-May) in most partsof the country. The exceptions were started earlier than normal (mid–March) and ended early areas of Sool and Sanaagregions. The most partsofBariregion,easternpartCentralandlocalized However, intensityanddurationofrainswerebelownormalin average toaboveintermsofamountanddistribution. Overall Outlook (21 Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical Series ReportNo. VII 51 Map 4: Mar-Jun 2013 Cumulative Cumulative 2013 4: Mar-Jun Map 3.1 CLIMATE 3. SECTOR REPORTS Gu 2013rainfallperformanceinSomaliarangedfrom Karan rains(July-August)fellinWest-Golis Pastoral Seasonal RainfallSeasonal st to23 th rd ForumofGreaterHorn Africa Climate of Aug 2013) Hays rainsin December-February, 1 , thereisanincreased Map 5: Mar-Jun, 2013 Rainfall as % of %of as Rainfall 2013 5: Mar-Jun, Map Gu 2013 season Long Term Mean (1999-2011) Term Mean Long http://www. be necessary. rainfall patternscanchangequickly, soclosemonitoringwill normal conditions.However, in ENSO-neutralconditions, strong climacticforcing,leading toahigherlikelihoodofnear (ENSO) neutralconditionsas forecast,therewillbelimited normal rainfall.WithlikelyElNiño-SouthernOscillation Ethiopian highlands are likely to receive normal to above the during valley Juba in high be to likely is flooding of risk The aforementioned period(Map7). likely to receive near normal to above normal rains during the Middle Shabelle,LowerJubaandregionsare However, coastalandadjacentareasofLowerShabelle, Map 7: Climate Outlook Forum Rainfall Forecast Forecast Rainfall Forum Outlook 7: Climate Map Deyr seasonsincetheupperJubaRivercatchmentsin (Sep – Dec 2013) –Dec (Sep from difference NDVI, 2013, 6: June Map the Long Term Mean (2000-2012) (2000-2012) Term Mean Long the SOURCE : JRC,SPOT satelite imagery :JRC,SPOT SOURCE 9

Sectors 3.2 CIVIL INSECURITY Map 8: Somalia Insecurity Outcomes/Projection, Jul-Dec, 2013INSECURITY OUTCOMES July - December, 2013 Between January and June 2013, civil insecurity and NW (Qardo) NW (Ishkushuban) M: Limited M: Widespread I: Medium I: Medium conflict continued restricting humanitarian access and T: Improving T: Unchanged DJIBOUTI disrupting trade and other economic activities, as well BOSSASO !. as inducing population displacements, particularly in the ERIGABO Awdal !. South-Central parts of the country (Map 8). Although the Sanag Bari BORAMA !. Woq. Galbeed BURAO Federal Government of Somalia expanded its control into !.HARGEYSA !. ! Togdheer many areas in South/Central during the first half of 2013, Sool LAS ANOD !. GAROWE !. incidents of armed confrontation, terrorism and crimes Nugal targeting mainly Government officials and United Nations Hiran GALKAYO M: Limited !. (UN) personnel have continued. For example, insecurity Bakool I: Medium Mudug M: Widespread T: Improving I: High Mudug M: Limited and conflict in Kismayo city disrupted port and other T: Unchanged I: Low DUSAMAREB Gedo !. T: Unchanged economic activities causing population displacements M: Widespread I: Low Galgadud BELET WEYNE T: Improving !. (Source: OCHA Humanitarian Bulletin, June 2013). Galgadud Bakol Hiran !.HUDUR M: Limited I: Low T: Unchanged GARBAHAREY !. BAIDOA The UNHCR estimates that 2 267 have been internally !. Gedo Bay M. Shabelle !.JOWHAR New Insecurity Epicentre Sectors Sectors displaced since January 2013 due to various reasons with Banadir Insecurity Epicentre L. Shabelle % Piracy Prone Areas conflict-induced displacements accounting for 12 percent of !. c A M. Juba Banadir Civil Security Impact Category

Y !. M: Medium High the total displacements (UNHCR, Somalia Fact Sheet, May N I: Low E T: Improving 8 K Medium 9 2013). As of January 2013, there are 1.1 million internally Shabelles Low L. Juba M: Limited/Widespread KISMAAYO !. I: Low/Medium Tension displaced people within Somalia who are mainly settled in T: Unchanged M: Magnitude the Southern-Central parts of the country. In addition, an I: Intensity T: Trend Kismayo and Afmadow Origins and destination of the estimated 993 020 refugees are in neighboring countries, M: Widespread population movements ± I:Medium T: Unchanged Deportations from Bossaso 25 12.5 0 25 50 75 100 (Source: UNHCR 2010) particularly in Kenya (47%), Ethiopia (24%), Yemen (23%) Kilometers

(UNHCR, http://data.unhcr.org/horn-of-africa/country.php?id=197). Technical Partners FSNAU Funding Agencies

Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia http://www.fsnau.org Juba Regions.P.O. Box 1Despite230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Ematheil: fsauinfo@fs nau.olikelyrg tel: 254-20-4000000 fax:25sustained4-20-4000555 FSNAU is managed by FAO insecurity in The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986. Military operations and insurgent attacks are likely to Somalia, the Somalia Food Security Cluster’s humanitarian continue in parts of the South-Central regions until the assistance plans that are funded and likely implemented end of 2013. These conflict-related disruptions will be during August to December will support up to one and a half concentrated primarily in Mogadishu, Lower and Middle million people monthly accross Somalia through the end of Shabelle, Bay, Bakool, Gedo, and Lower and Middle 2013.

3.3 AGRICULTURE

During the Gu 2013 season, the total area planted under Figure 1: Gu Cereal Production in Southern Regions, cereal crops in southern Somalia is estimated at 272 200 1995-2013 250,000 hectares (53.5% sorghum and 46.5% maize), which is Maize Sorghum PWA

11 percent higher than in the last Gu 2012 season. An 200,000 estimated 77 percent (208 600 hectares) of the planted

area was harvested. Lower Gu 2013 season harvested 150,000

area compared to planted area is due to several factors M T namely; floods (April 2013) in parts of riverine of Shabelle 100,000 regions and parts of agropastoral areas of Bay and Shabelle 50,000 regions, damage to seedlings caused by insects such as

crickets in Bay and Southern Agropastoral (Wanlaweyne) 0 of Lower Shabelle, poor Gu-Hagaa rains in agropastoral 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Year livelihoods in coastal areas of Shabelle (Agropastoral is expected in Juba, Lower Shabelle, Gedo (riverine) and Rainfed Maize) and Middle Juba (Southern Agropastoral) Bay regions from September to October 2013. The total regions and very poor Gu rains in Hiran region. preliminary estimate of Gu 2013 plus off-season cereal production in southern Somalia stands at 128 500 tonnes. Gu 2013 cereal (maize & sorghum) production in southern This is close (95%) to the post-war average (PWA) Gu Somalia is estimated at 126 000 tonnes. However, some cereal production (1995-2013) [Figure 1]. However, cereal off-season maize harvest (early estimate of 2 500 tonnes) crop production performance varies by region. Specifically,

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 10 Sectors

Table 5: Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical Series ReportNo. VII 51 Figure 2: Regional Contribution of Cereal Production Production Cereal of Contribution Regional 2: Figure estimates of the In theNorthwest,early last threeyears(2010-2012). of the production than theaverage and threetimeshigher Cowpea Belt. This ishigherthanintheGu 2012 season, estimated 2500 tonnes of cowpea washarvestedinthe an Mudug, and of Galgadud regions In theCentral Shabelle regions[Figure2-4]. the totalcerealproduction,ofwhich67percentcomesfrom of two-thirds represents about Maize Somalia. southern in production cereal account for65percentofGu2013 jointly of BayandLowerShabelle regions cereal producing was neartoaboveaverage(Table 5). The twomajor costs. In most other southernregions,Gu cereal production to means amongpoorhouseholds coverhighirrigation (38% harvest areas of Hiran regionreceivedverypoorGu agropastoral and regions. Ontheotherhand,bothriverine Shabelle Juba andMiddle in Lower Gu 2013harvestwasverygood ‘13). Whitesorghum accountsfor83percent ofthetotal represents theGuin harvest collected Togdheer region(Jul Galbeed and Awdal regionsassessed inJuly2013;therest in W.Karan harvestisbasedonthecrop establishments occurred inMay2013. About 95oftheestimatesGu- to poor is due shortfall [TableKaran harvest(2010-2012) 6andFigure5]. This is 66percent ofthethree-yearaverage tonnes, which Gu 2013 Total 2013 Gu Juba Hoose Hoose Juba Juba Dhexe Dhexe Juba Shabelle lower(hoose) Shabelle Shabelle Shabelle Regions Regions (Middle) (Middle) (Lower) (Lower) Hoose Hoose Dhexe Dhexe Bakol Gedo Hiran Bay 39% Shabelle Dhexe(middle) Gu Southern Somalia Gu Gu Gu 2013 Production Production 2013 Gu 82,600 46,000 10,000 10,700 14% Maize 1,500 7,000 7,000 2013 200 200 PWA) due to rainfall deficit and lack of lack and deficit rainfall to due PWA) Gu 2013 Cereal Production Estimates in in Estimates Production 2013 Cereal in tonnes in Gu-Karan Sorghum 43,400 22,600 2,800 2,000 3,600 1,000 3,700 7,600 100 Gu rains and pest infestation which pest infestation and rains cereal harvest standat 23 550 Bakool 126,000 Cereal 32,600 49,600 18,300 2% 2,200 5,200 9,800 1,200 Total Total 7,100 As % of Gu Gu %of As Gu 2013 2013 Gu Juba Hoose(lower) 1292% 209% 459% 492% 258% 426% 180% 2012 67% 97% 6% Juba Dhexe(Middle) Gu 2013 As % As 2013 Gu 26% Bay (1995-2012) Pwa Gu of 8% 106% 106% 121% 151% 114% 95% 38% 93% 85% Hiraan 1% Gedo 4% Gu- Figure 3: Regional Contribution of Sorghum Production Production Sorghum of Contribution 3: Regional Figure Figure 4: Regional Contribution of Maize Production Production Maize of Contribution 4: Regional Figure Gedo andHiranregions(Table 6). harvested inLowerandMiddleShabelle,followedbyJuba, were harvestedacrossSomalia.Mostofthesecrops cowpeas, rice,watermelon,groundnutsandvegetables, Close to 37 000 tonnes of trends inmost regions uptotheendof2013. seasonal follow and stable are expectedtoremain prices May,cereal availability. duetoreduced respectively Cereal trend since an increasing prices showed sorghum and April exceptions wereBoramaand Hiranregionswherewhite remaining at low levelsinmost regions of the country. The relative stability prices (maizeandsorghum)exhibited harvest inthose areas. In2013,localcereal January-July producing areas of Ethiopia followingbelowaveragecereal crop and reducedcross-bordersupplyfromneighbouring is lowinthemarketsduetopoorharvest cereal availability of Somalia.However,regions local region intheHiran on themarketsinmost availability cereal local ensure and harvest Carry-over stocks from favourable Deyr 2012/13 cereal verify theaboveestimates. 2013 to cereal cropassessmentinNovember-December undertake one andahalfmonths.FSNAUwill Karan of sorghumcropsinJuly2013. planting Therefore, theGu- re- maize. ExpectationofthepoorGuharvestprompted cereal productionof Northwest, whiletherestisyellow Bakool Juba Hoose(lower) 4% Shabelle Dhexe(middle) Shabelle lower(hoose) 9% harvest collection is expected to be delayed by about to bedelayed is expected harvest collection Juba Dhexe(Middle) 13% 8% 52% Bay Gu Gu 8% 2013 2013 2013 2013 season near average harvest will harvest average near season Gu 2013 Hiraan 0% Gedo 2% Shabelle Dhexe(middle) Gu cash crops, including sesame, 18% 12% Bay Juba Hoose(lower) 0% Bakool 0% Shabelle lower(hoose) Juba Dhexe(Middle) Gu-Karan Gedo 9% Hiraan 2% 56% 7% 11 Sectors

Figure 5: Gu/Karan Cereal Estimates (1998-2013) Cereal Balance Sheet 60,000

Maize Sorghum PWA 50,000 According to the 2013 Cereal Balance Sheet (CBS) updated in September 2013, the estimated food deficit 40,000 through the end of 2013 is equivalent to 45 000 tonnes of

M T 30,000 cereals (Table 8). This is at the lowest level compared to

20,000 the previous three years (51 000 tonnes in 2012; 227 000 tonnes in 2011; 136 000 tonnes in 2010) estimated using 10,000 the same methodology. This trend is mostly due to high

0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 domestic cereal production levels (although very similar to Year 2012 production estimates) and high commercial imports. Table 6: Gu-Karan 2013 Cereal Production Estimates in Somaliland (Northwest) The annual CBS is based on available data on domestic

GU-Karan 2013 Production GU-Karan production, official seaport imports, humanitarian food aid GU-Karan in tonnes 2013 as % of 2013 as % of and cross-border cereal trade flows through main trade Regions GU-Karan GU-Karan Total average routes between Somalia and neighboring Kenya and Maize Sorghum 2012 Cereal (2010-2012) Ethiopia. Sectors Sectors Awdal* 1,000 4,000 5,000 57% 89% The food deficit is calculated as follows: i. the domestic Woqooyi 3,000 14,500 17,500 69% 67% 10 Galbeed* production and imports, including food aid are summed 11 up; ii. all exports/ re-exports and other utilization such Togdheer 50 1,000 1,050 511% 79% as losses, waste and seed use are subtracted from the calculated figure, which gives the food supply estimated for Total Gu- 4,050 19,500 23,550 69% 70% Karan 2013 consumption; iii. the figure obtained in step (ii) is subtracted

*Production in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed represents Karan harvest from the cereal utilization requirements, estimated at 1.01 estimates to be collected in Nov-Dec 2013 million tonnes (details of estimations are provided in Notes and Assumptions attached to Table 8). Table 7: Gu Other Crop Production Estimates in Somalia

GU Cash Crop 2013 Production in tonnes Regions Cowpea Sesame Others* Total Bakool 500 500 Bay 3,500 1,000 1,000 5,500 Gedo 50 200 5,500 5,750 Hiran 50 9,000 9,050 Galgadud 1,500 1,500 Mudug 1,000 1,000 Juba Dhexe (Middle) 1,000 100 1,100 Juba Hoose (Lower) 500 2,500 3,000 Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) 500 1,000 200 1,700 Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 2,500 3,500 0 6,000 Togdheer 100 100 Woqooyi Galbeed 1,500 1,500 TOTAL 11,050 8,350 17,300 36,700 *Includes rice, groundnuts, onions, peppers, tomato, watermelon

Regional cereal flow largely follows a normal pattern in most regions of the country. For most of the southern Somalia, including Mogadishu, major supplies of sorghum are expected to come from Bay and maize supplies are expected to flow from Lower Shabelle and Middle Shabelle. Cereals from southern Somalia, are likely to reach Central, Northeast and parts of Northwest. Due to anticipated poor Gu harvest in the agropastoral areas of Northwest, the region received increased supplies of white sorghum through cross-border trade with the bordering Somali region of Ethiopia during the second quarter (April-June) of this year. White sorghum flow from Ethiopia to Beletweyne decreased, owing to meager production accross the border.

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 12 Sectors

Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical Series ReportNo. VII 51 9. Data for Food aid stocks/pipeline are up to December2013. December2013. to up are stocks/pipeline aid Food for 9. Data period. 2013 projection Jan-Dec in SSR=38% Somalia’s resources. which to production own its extent on the relies a country indicates SSR The exports). – imports + production*100/(production = SSR as: defined is (SSR) ratio self-sufficiency The 8. re-exported not are and utilization domestic for used mainly are cereal imports if only hold anticipated ratios these IDR: than interpreting higher in mind in and kept be should however acaveat infestation Notably, pest imports. following significant harvests The Karan ago. Gu in 6-months reduction IDR=25% remarkable to from up attributable is IDR=62%, IDR of and elevated acceleration still is imports on dependency Somalia’s that indicate projections and calculation year’s this table, this In - exports). imports + (production / imports*100 = as:IDR defined (IDR) is ratio dependency 7. Import is available. data where flows, trade border net-cross and aid food imports, production, estimated for accounts CBS This 6. surveys. nutrition and data baseline FSNAU on based 135kg/year as estimated is Somalia for (PCCC) Consumption Cereal Capita Per The 5. respectively 11%and production of 15%, as 11% estimated are rice and sorghum maize, for PHLs (http://www.phlosses.net/). calculator PHL the (PHL) using Losses Harvest Post the estimates and however, FSNAU defines rice and sorghum maize, For waste. for FAO factors standard the using calculated is 4. Waste released. be will CBS new the and available be will statistics harvest actual the when and as updated be will projections these All 3,000MT. year, approximately last of as same the be to 3. Projected Gu Karan 2013 production is calculated as the 5 year (2008-12) post-war average. The projected Gu 2013 = 1.25 off-season ispasta assumed and flour wheat of factors conversion with equivalents cereal in expressed are grains any.Processed if grain, wheat and maize, sorghum, pasta, flour, wheat rice, of consist cereals on Data figures. Port Mogadishu and Statistics, Port Official Bossaso and Berbera from (2009-2011). are years Data three of sum the of average the as calculated are imports commercial Projected 2. 2005) (UNDP 7,502,654 of population atotal and 135kg/year of consumption cereal capita per on based population entire the feed to required cereal of amount total estimated the is requirements utilization 1. Cereal Assumptions and Notes Table 8: Cereal Balance Sheet of Somalia for the 2013 Year Calendar the for Somalia of Sheet Balance Table 8: Cereal Exports or re-exports or Exports Food use Import Dependency Ratio(IDR) SufficiencySelf Ratio(SSR) Proteins (grams/day) Calories (units/day) 2013 Anticipated Imports compared to average 2013 Production compared to average Cereal (kg/year) Availability Domestic 2013 Cereal Utilizationrequirements Previous five years average imports Previous year imports Previous five years average production Previous year production Off-season Deyr '12/13 Deyr '12/13 2013 Production 2013 Estimated Per Capita Supply Somalia Per Capita Cereal Consumption (kg/year) Estimated Food Deficit (August-Dec 2013) Food aidstocks, ontransit and/or pipeline commercial projected to endof 2012 of which beenreceived has Seed use Fats (grams/day) Indexes Off-season Gu '13 Gu '13 Waste/Post harvestWaste/Post loses Carryover Stocks Carryover 2013 Total imports (comm. & food aid) 2013 Cereal Utilization SOMALIA CEREAL BALANCE SHEET THE FOR CALENDAR 2013 YEAR Wheat [ percentage ] [ thousand tonnes ] 262 401 376 155 444 202 204 406 406 12 50 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 (milled) Rice 107 243 179 185 273 109 198 199 33 24 11 78 19 5 0 4 3 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 Coarse Grains 151 500 412 121 253 114 223 381 381 110 112 493 155 93 14 55 94 74 0 1 3 0 0 8 3 0 Cereals Total Total 45 1,144 1099 1013 156 129 149 135 967 810 461 257 116 224 383 383 120 283 313 716 155 38 30 62 45 78 0 1 8 3 0 13 Sectors

3.4 LIVESTOCK SECTOR Map 9: Somalia,Somalia R aRangelandngeland Condition Conditions and Livestock Mig randation Livestock GU 2013 As a result of good Gu 2013 rains, pasture, browse and Migration, Gu 2013

water conditions improved in most of the agropastoral and ALULA !

!KANDALA pastoral livelihoods across the country. Exceptions were DJIBOUTI ZEYLAC ! !.BOSSASO !LASQORAY Bari region (Sool Plateau, Karkar/Dharor), Coastal Deeh LUGHAYE ! !. ERIGABO BE!RBERA

!BAKI ! of and L.Shabelle Central, pockets of Addun (Hobyo) and ISKUSHUBAN

BORAMA SHEIKH EL AFWEIN !. ! !

GEBILEY! north Gedo where rangeland conditions were below average !. !. ! !BANDAR BEYLA !

HUDUN TALEH due to poor rains. Livestock migration was largely normal ! ! !

!. (within the traditional wet/dry season grazing areas) in most !. LAS ANOD !BUHODLE

EYL pastoral livelihoods. Abnormal livestock out-migration was !

BURTIN! LE

only observed in the Sool Plateau and Karkaar/Dharoor of JARIBAN !

!GOLDOGOB Bari region towards Sool Plateau and Nugaal valley of Sool GA!.LKAYO

ABUDWAQ ! ADADO and Sanag regions (Map 9). !

DUSA!.MAREB

!HOBYO Livestock conditions and milk production is average in !EL BARDE BELET W!.EYNE ! !HARADHERE

most of the livelihoods (PET score 3-4). The exceptions ! DOLO HUDUR ! !. T!IEGLO Sectors Sectors BEL!ET XAWA BULO BURT!I ! !WAJID ADAN YABAL are Guban of Northwest and Coastal Deeh of Northeast ! ! EL DER

!.GARBAHAREY !JALALAQSI and Central regions where milk production is poor due !.BAIDOA M!ahaday Weyn !QANSAH DERE EL WAQ B!UR HAKABA JOWHAR ! !. !ADALE WANLA WEYN to poor seasonal performance and impact of previous ! DINSOR 13 12 ! BALAD !BARDERA !

! recurrent droughts. In August to early October, a light "/ Water Availability !QORYOLEY SAKOW !. ! !KURTUNWAAREY Very low water availability

SABLALE deterioration of rangeland conditions is expected in most ! !.BU'AALE Below normal water availability !BRAVA Hagar Normal water availability parts of Northwest, South and parts of Central with less ! AFMADOW JILIB ! ! Pasture Availability effect on the livestock condition. In the above-mentioned Very poor pasture !JAMAME Below normal pasture KISMAAYO rain deficit areas, rangeland resources are expected to !. Normal pasture Livestock Migration

deteriorate considerably through mid-October. However, ! Normal opportunistic migration projected near normal to below normal Deyr rains are ± Abnorrmal migration 30 15 0 30 60 90 120

Kilometers

likely to alleviate pasture and water conditions between FSNAU Funding Agencies Technical Partners late October to December, leading to improved livestock Figure 6: RegionalFood Se cuTrendsrity and Nutrition Analys isin Unit - SLocalomalia http://www.fs nQualityau.org Cattle Price P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-4000000 fax:254-20-4000555 FSNAU is managed by FAO performance. Analysis of herd dynamics shows a gradual The boundaries and names on inthese ma psSouth do not imply official endorse meandnt or acceptance b y tNorthwesthe United Nations. The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986. increase in the herd size for all species since Deyr 2011/12 7,000,000 3,000,000

across all livelihoods. The increasing trend in January-June SorghumBelt Shabelle Valley 6,000,000 2013 is expected to be sustained during the projection Juba Valley NW (SLSH) 2,500,000 5,000,000 period up to December 2013. 2,000,000 4,000,000 1,500,000 Camel holding amongst poor pastoralists in most of the 3,000,000

1,000,000 Price per Head of Cattle(SLSH) North, Central and in Southern Inland Pastoral (SIP) Price per Head of Cattle (SOSH) 2,000,000 500,000 of Juba regions is projected to be at or above baseline 1,000,000

0 0

levels by end of December 2013. However, camel herd 1 1 Jul- 1 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-13 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-12 Jan- 1 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-13 size will remain below baseline levels in Coastal Deeh of Month Northeast and Central and in the rest of southern Somalia. Figure 7: Regional Trends in Local Quality Goat Prices Camel ownership is mostly observed among households (SoSh/SlSh) dependent on men for food or income to buy food. Herd size 1,600,000 400,000 SorghumBelt Shabelle Valley Juba Valley of the small ruminants and cattle will remain below baseline 1,400,000 NE Central NW (SLSH) 350,000

levels across the country, except in Hawd (Central/North), 1,200,000 300,000 Addun and Karkaar/ Dharor livelihoods where the goat/ 1,000,000 250,000 800,000 200,000 sheep herds are projected to be near or above baseline 600,000 150,000 Price per Head of Goat (SOSH) Price per Head of Goat (SLSH)

levels by the end of the year 2013. Small ruminants are 400,000 100,000

often owned by women and households dependent on 200,000 50,000

0 0 them for food or income to buy food. 1 1 Jul- 1 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jan- 1 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-13 Month Relatively stable to increasing livestock prices since January 2013 were recorded in most markets of the country November). In the first half of 2013, livestock exports as a result of improved body condition and constant external through Berbera and Bossaso ports (1 550 077 heads) and internal demand (Figures 6 and 7). Livestock prices are were the highest level recorded since 2008 (source: Port expected to increase further during Hajj period (October- Statistics); this is also slightly higher (3%) than the same

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 time last year (1 503 507 heads) [Figure 8]. The time-series Figure 8: Annual Livestock Exports Trends (2007-2012) data on livestock exports from Bossaso and Berbera ports in Berbera and Bossaso Ports

can be viewed in FSNAU’s Market Data Update (Issued 6,000,000 Sep 2013) available from the following link: http://www. July-Dec Livestock Exports Jan-June Livestock Exports 5-year Average (2008-2012) 5,000,000 fsnau.org/downloads/Market-Data-Update-August-2013. pdf 4,000,000

3,000,000

Exports are expected to peak during the Hajj period (Sep- Number of Heads Oct) due to increased seasonal demand from the Gulf 2,000,000

States. 1,000,000

0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

3.5 MARKETS AND TRADE

Sectors The Somali shilling (SoSh), which had been appreciating Figure 9: Comparison of Rice Prices Bangkok (FOB), since September 2011 began to depreciate from March this Mogadishu and Bossaso 14 year in key reference m arkets. Market players attribute this 1.20 trend to the Central Bank’s attempt to stabilize the shilling International Mogadishu Bossasso 1.00 by buying dollars from the markets. However, the currency is still slightly stronger across the markets when compared 0.80 to January 2013 and June 2013. In July 2013, the SoSh 0.60 was traded at a monthly average rate of SoSh19 200 per United States dollar (USD) on Bakaara market, indicating USD per Kilogram 0.40

a continued losing streak. In the Somaliland shilling (SlSh) 0.20 zone of Northwest, the exchange rates have held steady over the past one year. In July 2013, the SlSh was traded 0.00 Jul-09 Jul-10 Oct-11 Oct-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Jan-11 Oct-09 Oct-10 Apr-10 Jul -12 Jul -13 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-13 July-11 July-11 Oct -12 in Hargeisa market at SlSh 6 640 per USD, indicating a April-12 April-13 slight appreciation compared to the same month last year (SlSh 6 575). Figure 10: Comparison of Diesel Prices (Asia Dubai), Mogadishu and Bossaso Cereal imports have declined seasonally from April due to 1.40 International Mogadishu Bossasso the monsoon winds (Apr-Sep), which limits imports from 1.20

smaller boats in the ports. Cross border re-exports of sugar, 1.00 wheat flour, and rice, among others, from Somalia to Kenya 0.80 and Ethiopia were estimated at 40 400 tonnes between 0.60 January-July 2013, showing a slight decline (4%) from USD per Litre the same period last year attributable to tightening border 0.40

controls and tax collection by both Kenya and Ethiopia. 0.20

However, cross-border livestock imports from Ethiopia 0.00 increased since April 2013. An estimated 415 500 heads Jul-11 Jul-11 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-12 Jul-13 Oct-11 Oct-11 Apr-11 Apr-11 Jan-11 Jan-11 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-12 Apr-10 Apr-12 Apr-13 of cattle, camel, sheep and goat were imported in January- Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-13 July 2013, which is 45 percent higher when compared to 2012. This is attributable to the strong shilling and the the same period last year. The increase in imports from stable/declining prices on international source markets Ethiopia is on account of relatively better rainfall over last (Figures 9 and 10). Similar trends were observed in the couple of seasons in the region, which enhanced animal SlSh using zones. There is a high probability that imported body conditions. The livestock from Ethiopia is re-exported red rice prices will remain stable or fall slightly as supplies to the Gulf countries during Ramadan (July) and Hajj (Sep/ improve starting in October when imports by smaller boats Oct) periods. resumes. International factors such as peak export season for some suppliers and increased production in some In the SoSh areas, the July 2013 prices of most essential exporting countries will also put a downward pressure on imported commodities such as diesel, rice, sugar and prices in local markets. vegetable oil, exhibited relative stability or moderate declines compared to January 2013 as well as the July

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 During the first half of 2013 the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Figure 11: Consumer Price Index measured through change in the Cost of the Minimum 400

Expenditure Basket (CMB), showed a modest drop (3-10%) 350 in most parts of the country (Figure 11). The decline in the 300 CPI is due to reduced prices of cereals, both local as well 250

200 as imported (wheat flour), which together account for 36-47 CPI percent of the basket. However, in July the CPI increased 150 100 (7%) in Central regions on account of elevated sorghum 50 (6%), wheat flour (3%) and vegetable oil (3%) prices. CPI CPI Central CPI North(Sosh) CPI North(SlSh) CPI South CPI somalia (SoShs) - remained relatively stable in the rest of the country. The Jul-11 Jul-11 Jul-10 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jan-12 Jan-13 Mar-11 Mar-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-13 Nov-10 Nov-12 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-12 Jan-11 Jan-11 May-10 May-12 May-13 May -11 May -11 Minimum Basket composition is available on FSNAU web- Month site: http://www.fsnau.org/sectors/markets

3.6 NUTRITION SITUATION OVERVIEW

FSNAU conducted 50 nutrition surveys and rapid Sectors assessments (Gu 2013) across Somalia covering most regions and livelihood zones. Results show that acute 15 malnutrition continues to be a serious public health problem in Somalia. National median Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rate of 14.4 percent suggests that one out of every six children (6-59 months) is suffering from acute malnutrition and requires adequate nutritional support. The Gu survey results also show that despite high levels of GAM and frequent illness, mortality rates were not elevated. Under-five death rates (U5DR) seen in most of the populations surveyed is less than 1/10 000/day. This has implications for interventions as the response can be focused on improving food security for the population as a whole as well as preventive health care. An Enumerator Taking Weight. Burao, FSNAU, July ‘13

Table 9: Estimated Number of Under Five Children Gu 2013 estimates suggest that a total of 206 100 children with Acute Malnutrition in Gu 2013 and 6-59 months are suffering from acute malnutrition including Change from Deyr 2012-13 40 950 children with severe acute malnutrition. This is GAM Children < 5 SAM Children < 5 a slight reduction in the number from December 2012, Region surveyed Gu 2013 Deyr 2012 Gu 2013 Deyr 2012 when an estimated 215 000 GAM cases existed (Table North East 13000 13550 2300 2900 9). It was observed that 68 percent of these children (2 North West 40850 42150 4900 6750 out of every 3 acutely malnourished children) were from Central 12500 18700 1700 3750 South–Central Somalia even though it accounts for only South 139750 140650 32050 31200 56 percent share of the total population. The median Total number 206100 215050 40950 44600 GAM rate of 16.1 percent in South-Central Somalia was Change since 4 % decrease 8 % decrease significantly higher compared to 11.4 percent median Deyr 2012 GAM in Northwest Somalia. Highest GAM levels were seen in Bakool pastoral livelihood (27.4%) [Maps 10-12]. Gedo Pastoral and Agropastoral (5.0%). The results of Gu

nutrition surveys suggest that under-five death rate (U5DR) GAM rates among IDPs were significantly higher (17.3%) was higher in population groups with higher SAM prevalence than among the urban populations (10.1%) or rural though the association is not statistically significant. livelihoods (14.4%). Similar trends were noted for Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM); 3.1 percent of 6-59 month Higher morbidity rate was seen in children with greater children suffered from SAM in IDPs compared to 1.2 percent prevalence of acute malnutrition, though no significant in urban areas or 2.0 percent in rural areas. Critical levels association was observed. The morbidity rate in Northeast of SAM were seen in Dobley IDPs (6.4%) and Garowe Somalia was higher than other regions and it is attributed IDPs (5.8%) and Bay Agropastoral (6.0%). Serious levels to high concentration of IDPs in this region. This was also of SAM were observed in Bakool Pastoral (5.4%), North reflected in the higher morbidity rate among IDPs (39.3%)

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 16 Sectors

Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical Series ReportNo. VII 51 region and26 percentinNorthwest region. A very large inNortheastandCentral to 22percent percent), compared (34 inSouthSomalia mealfrequency in theminimum differences by WHO.Regional recommended noted were foods asoften in 4childrenreceivedcomplementary minimum mealfrequencyobservedsuggeststhat only 1 of 25.6percent (6-24 months).Median infants andchildren in frequency meal by theminimum also highlighted were practices (IYCF) feeding children young and infant Poor complementary foodatoneyearofage. to breastmilkinaddition in NortheastandCentralreceived to 51percent in NorthwestandSouthcompared children feeding practiceswereobservedasonly67percentofthe child survival.InSomalia,poorinfantandyoung twoyearsofageand,ultimately,of childrenunder impact child feedingpractices directly affect the nutritional status growth failurewillcontinueinSomalia.Infantandyoung and cycle ofmalnutrition the intergenerational immediately it isaddressed suggestthatunless stunting inchildren and with underweight malnutrition of maternal correlation significant and (28.8%) IDPs Galkayo and (44.4%) Kismayo IDPs (32.5%), district Mataban (28.8%), region Bari Critical levelsof maternal malnutritionwereseenin and development. growth and promotehealthy children immunity ofyoung improve help improving will supplementation A Vitamin that of coverage suggesting supplementation, A Vitamin reported receiving town where<10percentofchildren Bay IDPs, Kismayo in observed Kismayo and Agropastoral was malnutrition chronic acute and High hampered. measles andacuterespiratory infectionsis greatly vitamin A, theirabilitytoresistdiseasessuchasdiarrhoea, supplementation A (Burao IDPs and Sool Plateau). If children have insufficient Vitamin receiving reported children A of Vitamin month 6-59 the of percent 90 ≥ populations, surveyed the Coverage in twoof as only concern is ofserious supplementation significant. statistically not to girlsbutdifferencesin boyscompared higher were were andunderweight / Stunting (chronicmalnutrition) of malnutrition Prevalence observed. significant No stunting. of association betweenacutemalnutritionandstuntingwas form severe was it stunted of children percent 46.7 in and (22.1%) stunting of level had severelevels of stunting. MogadishuIDPs have alert stunting in Bay Agropastoral (46.9%) of which 23.1 percent groups:criticallevelof were seeninsomepopulation of 6-59monthold.Exceptions ofchildren 10.8 percent only a publichealthconcerninSomalia.Stuntingwasseen Results of (21.8%) orrurallivelihoods(23.9%). thanmorbidity ratesseeninurban which was higher Gu 2013 assessmentsuggestthat stunting isnot : (wasting) Acute Malnutrition Somalia. in malnutrition ending towards step first the is prevention with GAM)but (206100children who aremalnourished lives. children’s Treatment isurgentlyneededforthose to save in Somaliaisanessentialintervention feeding infant andyoungchild and protectingoptimal Supporting and integratefood,health,hygiene,sanitationcare. morbidity suggestthat must interventions be multi-sectoral rates ofGAMand high The reasonsforpersistently to highof97percentamong Addun. – from low of one percent among Northwest agro-pastorals was noted in thedietarydiversityofchildfeeding variation FSNAU, ‘13. July Taking Enumerator An Gebiley, MUAC Measurement. east, FSNAU,east, ‘13. July North ataMCH. Mothers for Session Education Health - 17 Sectors

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FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 4. INTEGRATED FOOD SECURITY ANALYSIS

4.1 SOMALIA’S URBAN FOOD SECURITY SITUATION

Urban food security situation improved across the country population had acceptable food consumption. This figure in the post-Gu 2013 compared to the post-Deyr 2012/13. represents a slight decline since December 2012. The rest of In the July 2013 snapshot analysis, the food security the urban population of Banadir region had poor to borderline situation in all urban areas of the country was classified food consumption2 (Figure 13). There was no statistically as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) [Map 1]. In the most likely significant difference in terms of the representation of scenario, the area classification remains unchanged households dependent on women for food or income to buy during August – December 2013 (Map 2). An estimated food (WDHs) and households dependent on men for food 985 000 people in urban areas are classified as Stressed or income to buy food (MDHs) in different food consumption (IPC Phase 2); about two-thirds of these are in the South categories. Survey results in Mogadishu also indicate that including Mogadishu-city, while the rest are concentrated only two percent of the population employed severe or very in the North (29%) and Central (8%) regions. In addition, severe coping strategies to access food such as relying on an estimated 45 000 people remain in Crisis (IPC Phase food donations from relatives, their clan, or their community, 3), of whom 30 000 people are in Bari, 10 000 are in or sending household members to eat elsewhere. Lower Juba and 5 000 people are in Hiran regions). The Figure 13: Food Consumption Score Trend: Banadir population estimates under different IPC phases are the (% of Households) same as in July 2013 (Tables 1, 2 and 10). 100%

The improved food security situation in urban areas is the 80% result of reduced costs of food and other basic goods and

72% services, sustained but gradual increases in income, and 60% 86% the availability of labor opportunities during January-July Acceptable Borderline Poor 2013. Key outcomes of these developments include an 40% improved food access of the population as reflected in strong purchasing power, measured with terms of trade 20% 17% (ToT) between daily labour wage rate to cereals, and 10% 11% acceptable levels of food consumption (Figure 12). 4% 0%

Urban Analysis Dec-12 Jun-13 Figure 12: Terms of Trade Daily Labour to Cereal 18 50 Mogadishu survey results also revealed that households own 45 Sorghum-­‐belt (red sorghum) Juba (white maize) one to two productive assets (e.g mobile phones, bicycles) 40 Shabelle (white maize) Central (red sorghum)

Northeast (red sorghum) Northwest (white sorghum) 35 irrespective of the gender of the main income provider, Banadir (white maize) 30 similar to findings of the previous survey (Dec. ’12). The

25 reported main income sources of households in Mogadishu 20 included casual labour, skilled labour, petty trade, self- Kg per Daily Labour Wage 15 employment, and, to a lesser extent, remittances. Casual 10 labour, skilled labour and self-employment were among 5 the main income sources of men, while petty trade and 0 Jul-­‐08 Jul-­‐09 Jul-­‐10 Jul-­‐11 Jul-­‐12 Jul-­‐13 some remittances were primary income sources of women. Jan-­‐09 Jan-­‐10 Jan-­‐11 Jan-­‐12 Jan-­‐13 Oct-­‐08 Oct-­‐09 Oct-­‐10 Oct-­‐11 Oct-­‐12 Apr-­‐09 Apr-­‐10 Apr-­‐11 Apr-­‐12 Apr-­‐13 Month Similar income sources were reported by the poor urban households in the southern regions assessed in June 2013. For August to December, sustained food security situation Assessments carried out in the central and northern regions is projected due to likely mostly stable food prices and in December 2012 provide similar findings as regards main casual wage labor to cereals terms of trade. However, income sources of households. However, a slightly higher insecurity will remain a major risk factor for food access of percentage of households reported remittances among urban households, particularly in South-Central. Continued the main income sources in the northern regions (30%) conflict may increase the costs and risks associated with compared to Mogadishu (14%). trade and other market activities in urban areas. In general, the CMB showed stable to declining trend from In the capital city of Mogadishu, where almost one-third January to July, reflecting declines in staple food prices of the urban population lives, more than 75 percent of the 2 These percentages were based on a food consumption score (FCS), a proxy measure for food consumption, which uses dietary diversity and frequency of consumption

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 driven by a slight appreciation of the SoSh against the December 2012 surveys; the exception were some USD in the South, local cereal availability on the markets northern regions (Bari and North Mudug) where average and steady food import supplies through the ports. The food spending was in the range of 61-64 percent. As poor major exceptions were the central regions, particularly households typically buy almost all of their food, they are the Hiran region, where consumer prices have increased vulnerable both to high food prices and to shocks that may since January. The major factors contributing to the reduce their income. The degree of vulnerability is higher increase included poor seasonal performance, high costs among WDHs compared to MDHs due to less diversified of transporting goods during the March to June Gu rainy incomes sources and fewer disposable assets among the season, and reduced cross-border supply of cereals from former. Ethiopia due to a poor harvest in the nearer crop-producing areas. In urban areas in the North and the South, the CMB Figure 14: Expenditure Pattern of Urban Households declined by 3-12 percent between January and July 2013. in Southern Somalia (%) The largest declines were in Elberde in Bakool (34%), 100% Lowyaddo in Awdal (25%), and Jillib in Middle Juba (16 %). The CMB varied among the regions of the country, ranging 80% from USD 72 in Bakool to USD 212 in Sanaag. In general, a higher CMB in USD terms is recorded in northern and 60% central compared to southern regions. 40% non-food food The assessments (June 2013) among poor urban 20% households in southern regions indicated that they were able to cover their basic expenditures with their main 0% income sources.

In most regions, purchasing power of the poor as measured Nutrition surveys carried out in urban areas in July 2013 through the ToT between casual labor wage rates and cereal indicate either sustained or improved nutrition situation prices remained stable or increased slightly from January from the previous Deyr across the country. In the northern 2013 to July 2013. This was primarily a result of declining or regions, urban nutrition varied between Alert and Serious stable food prices. The exception is Hiran region, where ToT levels except in Bari region where malaria outbreak and deteriorated following an increase in cereal prices due to high temperature resulted in deterioration from Critical in the above-mentioned reasons. However, across the regions December 2012 to Very Critical in July 2013. In the South- Urban Analysis ToT remained well above the 5-year regional average for Central regions, urban nutrition was at Alert level except July (2008-2012) as a result of successive seasons of rising in Kismayo and Beletwein, where it was Critical and 19 labor wages and falling staple cereal prices. In July 2013, Very Critical, respectively. The high malnutrition level in the highest ToT of 20kg/ daily labour rate was recorded in Beletwein is associated with poor seasonal performance, Bay and the lowest 6kg of cereals/ daily labour rate was leading to reduced income opportunities and deteriorated documented in Bakool, South Mudug and Nugal regions. purchasing power. In Kismayo, income opportunities (e.g. portage) of poor households were affected by prevailing The urban poor devote a very high proportion of their insecurity (see Civil Security article). However, as the expenditures to food as revealed by the recent assessments conflict subsided in July 2013, business activities resumed, in Mogadishu and other southern regions. The July survey contributing to a sharp monthly increase (34%) in labour results indicated that across urban areas, on average, wages. households spent between 75 to 86 percent of their income on food (Figure 14). A similar pattern of food expenditures Indicators that determined IPC (Current and Projected) in was revealed in most central and northern regions during urban livelihoods are provided in Appedix 5.5.

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 20 RegionalIDP Analysis Rural Analysis

IC hs 4. n hsmrb po acs t hat and health to access poor Dhusamareb, In 4). Phase (IPC Emergency as classified remain Dhobley and in Dhusamareb settlements IDP chapter the However, (see Security). Food situation Urban on security food urban improving and are alsoattributabletocontinued humanitarianinterventions improved ToTcereals. to labor improvements These casual of high labor wages and access to labour by IDP households and proxy indicator of Household Dietary Diversity Score [HDDS]), a through (measured consumption food improved in reflected is access food improved The 2012. December in conducted IDP indicated most in surveys situation settlements compared to the results of assessments 2013 nutrition and June/July access food the improved of outcome The Mogadishu. majority oftheseinternallydisplacedpeopleliveinandaround Galkayo, Dusamareb, Garowe, Bossaso, Qardho, Berbera, Hargeisa and Burao. The Baidoa, Dobley, Mogadishu, areas: urban in 11settlements in live 000 625 around which of 13), Jan’ at (as Somalia in IDPs million 1.1 estimates UNHCR The 2013 accrossthecountry(Map2: Table 2). Emergency of in percent classified people 72 000 comprising 870 the crisis, security food in are 000 IDPs 625 estimated An 2013. December – August for same the remains classification area the scenario, likely most the In 4). Phase (IPC Emergency in classified were Mogadishu) and Galkacyo Garowe, Qardho, Bossaso, Burco, (Berbera, 2012/13 results,whensevenoutoftenassessedsettlements 4) [Map 1; Table 1]. This is an improvement from the post-Deyr Dhobley, where this was classified as as classified was 11) of out (8 settlements IDP most in situation the across 2013) (Feb-Jun country. Inthe July2013snapshotanalysis,thefoodsecurity season 2012/13 post-Deyr to most in compared season 2013 post-Gu the in settlements IDP improve major to projected is situation security food The 4.2 FOODSECURITYSITUATION INIDPSETTLEMENTS Table 10: Somalia, Estimated Population in Acute Food Insecurity in Urban Livelihoods, Aug-Dec 2013 EstimatedPopulationin Acute FoodInsecurityinUrbanLivelihoods, Table 10:Aug-Dec Somalia, Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical Series ReportNo. VII 51 10/16/2013 3:11 PM 10/16/2013 3:11 Awdal North Togdheer Woqooyi Galbeed Grand Total Grand Banadir Bay Bakool Shabelle (Lower) Hoose Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) Galgaduud Mudug Central Bari Sool Sanaag Juba Hoose (Lower) (Middle) Dhexe Juba Gedo Hiraan South Nugaal IC hs 3 ecp toe n hsmrb and Dhusamareb in those except 3) Phase (IPC Crisis Region IC hs 4 btenAgs ad December and August between 4) Phase (IPC Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total UNDP 2005UNDP Urban Population 2,895,568 1,054,371 110,942 123,402 490,432 901,183 126,813 172,714 153,382 179,633 124,682 786,632 61,438 95,831 58,977 94,405 39,134 56,079 54,739 81,302 69,113 54,749 Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPCPhase Stressed 985,000 285,000 425,000 125,000 200,000 135,000 25,000 40,000 70,000 35,000 40,000 15,000 15,000 50,000 40,000 35,000 50,000 20,000 75,000 20,000 35,000 35,000 100% their mainsource ofincomefollowed,toa lesser extent,by survival. as portage) (mostly for labor casual cited settlements, surveyed strategies livelihood Approximately 40 to ad-hoc 60 percent of the households across most employ IDPs Mogadishu (23%)andQardho (22%)[Figure17]. (23%), Bossaso (24%), Baidoa (20%), Dobley in reported was strategies coping severe very to severe practicing WDHs of percent Highest strategies. coping severe very to severe used However, WDHs dominated in the category of households that provider. income main the of category gender by households the among differences no were There meat. frequently less measured and milk, sugars, oil, vegetable cereals, as included groups food consumed commonly groups most The food 16). (Figure more HDDS through or four including diet of diverse consumption somewhat a had households IDP of majority the that indicate findings assessment 2013 July The both In competition. settlements the nutrition situation is classified increased as through options livelihood limits arrivals new of number large the organizations and camp, the serving of capacity the overwhelm to continues IDPs new of influx The Juba. Lower and Middle of parts in groups have been displaced by recurrent clashes between armed They 15). (Figure year one past the within arrived have IDPs Dhobley,In situation. nutrition the impacted of percent 50 over has March/April in withdrawal MSF following services nutrition Figure 15:DurationofResidencyHouseholdsin 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 45,000 15,000 30,000 30,000 10,000 Crisis 5,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 IDP Settlements Emergency 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Emergency as % of Urban Total in Crisis and population Very Critical. 17 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 7 0 0 3 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 <= year<= 1 years1-3 >3years Figure 16: IDP Household Dietary Diversity Score (% Figure 18: IDP Household Expenditure Pattern (%) of Households) 100%

% of HH with HDDS >=4 % of HH with HDDS = 3 % of HH with HDDS = 1-­‐2 100% 80% 90%

80%

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30%

20%

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0% Figure 17: IDP Households Employing Severe to Very Severe Coping Strategies (% by Gender Categories) settlements have poor water access. The largest proportion 25% of IDPs continue to live in non-permanent housing often only protected from the elements by tarpaulin or other makeshift 20% materials. Even those with slightly better housing conditions Major income/food provider: live in shelters made of corrugated sheets or occupy rooms 15% Men in abandoned public or government buildings. There is no Major income/food provider: Women 10% significant difference in the housing conditions between the Major income/food provider: Men&Women short-term IDPs who have been in a settlement for less than a

5% year and the longer-term IDPs who have lived over a year in a settlement. In the majority of settlements in the North, IDP 0% households have access to safe water sources, apart from Hargeisa and Garowe where about 25 percent of households reported lack of access to safe water. This is similar to the findings in December 2012 survey. However, the situation self-employment and petty trade. Casual labour was mostly is different in Mogadishu and Baidoa where slightly over 50 reported by MDH as the main income source, while petty trade percent and less than 10 percent of the IDPs, respectively, was equally important for both WDH and MDH, particularly in confirmed access to safe water. The nutrition situation in most Burao, Hargeisa, and Mogadishu settlements. However, a of the settlements assessed is classified between Critical IDP Analysis IDP high proportion (57%) of Baidoa IDPs reported a farm labour and Serious levels except Dhusamareb and Dhobley IDPs among the main income sources, which could be attributed to that were classified as Very Critical. However, most IDP intense Gu seasonal farming activities in the region. Most IDPs settlements have indicated either sustained or improved 21 (73%) in Baidoa settlement originate from the Bay region. In nutrition situation from the results of assessments carried most settlements, the majority of IDPs (50-75% of households) out in Deyr 2012 season. The exception is Hargeisa IDP reported having only one or no income sources. settlements, where deterioration is observed due to outbreak of measles in January 2013. IDPs tend to have minimal productive assets. Land ownership was reported in three locations only, including Baidoa (40% of Many factors are likely to continue to lead to instability in IDP households), Burao (39% of IDP households) and Berbera the sources of food and income for IDPs. Political instability, (31% of IDP households). MDHs represented the majority government plans for the eviction of IDPs from public buildings among households owning land in all three locations. Only in in Mogadishu and other towns in South-Central, and possible a few settlements, a significant proportion of IDP households clan conflicts are likely to lead to further displacements. reported livestock (sheep and goat) ownership (e.g. Dhobley – IDPs come to major towns such as Dhobley and Mogadishu 20%; Dusamareb – 29%; Galkayo – 56%; Burao – 47%). A higher sometimes in search of humanitarian assistance when proportion of WDHs compared to MDH owned small ruminants such assistance is not accessible in their original place of in Dhobley (55% WDH vs 21% for MDH) and Dusamareb (59% residence due to insecurity. IDPs are vulnerable to several WDH vs 53% MDH). types of shocks following displacement including contagious disease outbreaks, high disease risk due to poor hygiene Market purchase is the primary source of food for IDPs, but and sanitation in congested informal settlements, physical food aid and food gifts are also among the important sources. insecurity, and adverse exposure to extreme temperatures The results are similar for both gender categories of household and rain due to poor housing conditions. IDPs are likely to income providers. Regardless of the sex of an income provider, remain in either Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC across all IDP settlements, households, on average, used over Phase 4) as only limited improvements are expected between 75 percent of their expenditures on food purchases; this is August and December 2013. similar to the spending pattern of urban households (Figure 18). Indicators that determined IPC (Current and Projected) in the Poor housing conditions prevail in IDP settlements, and many IDP settlements are provided in Appedix 5.9.

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 4.3 SOMALIA’S RURAL FOOD SECURITY SITUATION

4.3.1 GEDO REGION

Overall, the food security situation improved in all livelihoods of the Gedo region in the post Gu 2013 season compared Gedo Region Livelihood Systems to post-Deyr 2012/13 season. In the July 2013 snapshot analysis, the food security situation in all livelihoods of the region was classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) [Map 1]. In the most likely scenario, the area classification remains the same in all livelihoods during August-December 2013 (Map 2). The number of rural people classified in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is estimated at 85 000, unchanged from the July 2013 figures (Tables 1, 2 and 11).

The region consists of pastoral, agropastoral and riverine livelihoods. In a normal year, 50-60 percent of poor pastoralists’ food needs are met through market purchases sales; average cereal production and above average (sorghum, maize, sugar and vegetable oil). The remaining cash crop production in the riverine; increased farm labor 40-50 percent come from own livestock products and wild options for poor households; reduced local cereal prices; food. Income sources of poor pastoralists include sales increased purchasing power of poor households. Projected of livestock products (milk/ghee) [60-75%] and livestock near average Deyr rains will further enhance pasture and (10-20%) as well as employment (15-20%). In agricultural water availability and contribute to sustained good livestock livelihoods (agropastoral and riverine), poor households conditions as well as normal farm labour opportunities for the meet most of their food needs (50-65%) through own upcoming Deyr planting activities. Significant humanitarian production (cereals and livestock products), which is assistance is also planned in the area, particularly in the supplemented (35-50%) through purchases, wild food and north of Gedo (source: Somalia Food Security Cluster). gifts. The agropastoralists’ income sources comprise the sale of livestock and livestock products (55-75%), crop Total cereal production (sorghum and maize) in agropastoral

Regional Rural Analysis sales (10-20%) and remittances (15-25%). Income of poor and riverine livelihoods of Gedo region is estimated at households in riverine livelihood comes from employment 5 300 tonnes, slightly higher (by 6%) compared to the and self-employment (35-55%) followed by crop sales (10- 22 PWA (1995-2012). Exceptions are agropastoral areas of 20%) and cash gifts. Dolo and Belethawa districts where cereal crop harvest was poor. Good cereal production is mostly attributed to The improved food security situation in the region in the normal rainfall performance and distribution of seed and post-Gu 2013 season is mainly attributed to the cumulative paid tractor hours, mainly in north Gedo. An additional positive impacts of three consecutive favourable rainy 600 tonnes of off-season maize harvest was expected in seasons, as well as sustained humanitarian assistance late August-September 2013 in the Gedo Pump Irrigation in north Gedo. Specifically, these impacts are reflected in Riverine livelihood zone. FSNAU also estimated production improved rangeland resources, livestock body conditions of cash crops, including tomatoes (4 050 tonnes), onions and number of sellable animals; high livestock prices, hence (1 550 tonnes), cowpea (40 tonnes) and sesame (20 increased incomes from livestock and livestock product tonnes) during this Gu season. The cereal stocks of poor

Figure 19: ToT Daily Labor Rate to Sorghum Figure 20: ToT Goat Local Quality to Red Sorghum

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 households in the riverine and agropastoral areas are In the Gu 2013 season the acute malnutrition in North estimated to last for two months. Gedo Agropastoral is Critical, deteriorated from Serious in the post-Deyr 2012/13 season. The riverine and pastoral In January-July 2013, the ToT between daily labour rate and livelihoods sustained in the Critical nutrition situation as red sorghum increased in the range of 2-10kgs of cereals in the Deyr 2012/13 season. In the southern part of the per daily labour across all main markets of Gedo region. In region, the nutrition situation is Very Critical in the Gu July 2013, the ToT levels were higher compared to a year 2013 season, unchanged from the Deyr 2012/13 season. ago (Jul ’12) in all main markets (Figure 19). In January- The current projection (September-October 2013) of the July 2013, the ToT between goat local and red sorghum nutrition situation in north Gedo livelihood zones indicates increased in the range of 26Kgs in most main markets of Critical. The southern Gedo will remain Very Critical due Gedo region. The exception was Bardera market, where to lack of humanitarian assistance, high morbidity rates, low the ToT declined by 96kgs per head, although was still immunization status, poor water and sanitation. slightly higher (6%) compared to a year ago (Jul ’12). The rest of the markets exhibited annual decreases in the ToT Summary table with indicators that contributed to the IPC (Figure 20). July – December 2013 in the Gedo region is provided in Appendix 5.8.1 of this report.

Table 11: Gedo Region, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013 Gedo Gedo Agro-Pastoral High Potential 26,607 14,000 0 0 0 Dawa Pastoral 111,023 36,000 0 0 0 Juba Pump Irrigated Riverine 31,236 11,000 0 0 0 Southern Agro-Pastoral 31,731 11,000 0 0 0 Southern Inland Pastoral 46,479 12,000 0 0 0 *Regional Total 247,076 84,000 0 0 0

*The regional IPC totals in this table deviates slightly from the regional IPC figures inTable 2 because of rounding off. Regional Rural Analysis

23 4.3.2 LOWER AND MIDDLE JUBA REGIONS

The food security situation improved in all livelihoods of the Juba regions in this Gu 2013 season compared to the post- Juba Regions Livelihood Systems Deyr (Feb-Jun 2013) season. In the July 2013 snapshot analysis, the food security situation in most livelihoods of both Middle and Lower Juba regions was classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The exception is the Southern Inland Pastoral (SIP) livelihood which improved to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) [Map 1]. In the most likely scenario, the area classification is expected to remain the same for all the livelihoods in the period August- December 2013 (Map 2). The rural population classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is estimated at 110 000, of which 50 000 in Middle Juba and 60 000 in Lower Juba. The population estimates under different IPC phases are the same as in July 2013 in both regions (Tables 1, 2 and 12).

This indicates a reduction from the post-Deyr 2012/13 estimates in both Middle Juba (11%) and Lower Juba (12%). Both Lower Juba and Middle Juba regions consist of livelihoods of the two regions, obtain food from own pastoral, agropastoral and riverine livelihoods. In a normal production (50-60%), food purchases (35-45%) and food season, poor households in riverine and agropastoral gifts (5%). Poor households in agropastoral livelihoods

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 24 Regional Rural Analysis

Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical Series ReportNo. VII 51 FSNAU, July‘13 Improved Water LevelsforLivestock.Buale,MiddleJuba, was collectedfrom theagropastoral. sorghum of tonnes 100 while riverine), from tonnes 100 3 and Agropastoral Juba Lower from tonnes 900 (3 tonnes 000 7 at estimated is production crop Juba PWA.Lower In The Southern Agropastoral. the in collected sorghum of tonnes tonnes of maize obtained mainly from the riverine and 2 800 900 6 at estimated is production crop the Juba, Middle In security situationintheregion. food improved to contribute also will which regions, the of access isexpectedinparts activities. Normalhumanitarian farming and production livestock condition, body livestock rainfall willpositivelyimpactpastureandwateravailability, normal near Projected Arabia. Saudi Hajj approaching the during further increase to expected and sheep/goats and camel. Livestock prices are currently high in lambing/kidding medium to low and calving cattle high average currently and isforecastedto further improvedueto the expected is availability Milk power. purchasing strengthened as well as levels, baseline above reached SIPin particularly herds livestock where livelihoods, size, herd livestock increased availability, milk improved production, cereal good to attributed is regions Juba the of The improved food security situation in most rural livelihoods (15-20%) andcashgifts(5-10%). employment by followed (65-85%), sales product livestock They (20%). products derive mostoftheircashincomefromlivestockand livestock own by supplemented annual is which from foodpurchase, (80%) food requirements their of most obtain pastoralists Poor (5%). gifts the saleofcerealandcashcrops(35%),chickensales/ by followed (60%), self-employment and employment is source income areas, themain sales. Inriverine charcoal and product bush watering, including animal herding, labour, (60-70%), farm self-employment and employment by from livestockandproductsalesfollowed cash income percent oftheirannual 30-40 earn about etv sao, u t hg eprs f ietc to livestock of exports high to due season, festive season cereal production represents 114represents production Gu seasoncereal percentof Deyr 2013 seasonal 2013 Figure 21:ToT DailyLaborRatetoWhiteMaize ’12) [Figure21]. (Jul ago year a levels the exceeded still but 2013 January by decreased maize white and goat quality ToT2013 local July between the Juba, Middle In declined. across markets with the exception the ToT levels were higher compared to a year ago (Jul ’12) ToT the declined by 16-23kg of cereals per head. In July 2013, where markets Kismayo and Dobley are Exceptions region. Juba Lower the of markets main most in 15-18kg of range the in increases exhibited maize white and quality In the period January-July 2013, the ToT between goat local season. debtlevels indicate adeclinewhencomparedto the Deyr theaccumulated livelihoods most In floods. above to due river and floods flash limited and rainfall is seasonal average harvest increased The 2013. October September- period the in expected also is harvest maize Juba – 300 tonnes; Lower Juba – 500 tonnes) of off-season three (Middle to tonnes 800 estimated stocks. An cereal of months two have livelihoods agropastoral and riverine the in households Poor PWA). of (151% production term long- average the from increases considerable are These Figure 22:ToT DailyLaborRatetoWhiteMaize (Lower Juba) (Middle Juba) of Hagar market where it 24-28kg since 24-28kg 2012/13 The July 2013 ToT between daily labour and white maize During the Gu 2013 season the acute malnutrition in indicated slight decreases of 1-3kg since January 2013 Juba Pastoral is Serious, an improvement from Critical in most main markets of the Lower Juba region. The in the Deyr 2012 season. In the agropastoral and riverine exceptions are Afmadow and Jamame markets where the livelihood zones the nutrition situation improved from ToT increased by 4-5kg of cereals per daily labour. The Very Critical (Deyr 2012) to Critical (Gu 2013) season. ToT levels were higher compared to a year ago (Jul ’12) The current projection (September-October, 2013) of across the markets with the exception of Hagar and Dobley the nutrition situation in Juba livelihoods is Serious in markets where they were lower. In Middle Juba, the ToT pastoral livelihood, and sustained Critical in riverine and between daily labour and white maize declined by 1kg in agropastoral livelihoods. January-July 2013, but was higher compared to a year ago Summary table with indicators that contributed to the IPC (Jul ’12) [Figure 22]. July – December 2013 in the Juba regions is provided in Appendix 5.8.2 of this report.

Table 12: Juba Regions, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013

Juba Dhexe (Middle) Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 10,984 0 0 0 0 Juba Pump Irrigated Riverine 17,297 6,000 0 0 0 Lower Juba Agro-Pastoral 8,780 3,000 0 0 0 South-East Pastoral 18,232 6,000 0 0 0 Southern Agro-Pastoral 46,816 16,000 0 0 0 Southern Inland Pastoral 22,725 2,000 0 0 0 Southern Juba Riverine 59,304 18,000 0 0 0 *Regional Total 184,138 51,000 0 0 0 Juba Hoose (Lower) Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 33,354 0 0 0 0 Lower Juba Agro-Pastoral 70,183 21,000 0 0 0 South-East Pastoral 38,810 12,000 0 0 0 Southern Agro-Pastoral 11,637 4,000 0 0 0 Southern Inland Pastoral 50,119 7,000 0 0 0 Southern Juba Riverine 57,005 17,000 0 0 0 *Regional Total 261,108 61,000 0 0 0 GRAND TOTAL 445,246 112,000 0 0 0

*The regional IPC totals in this table deviates slightly from the regional IPC figures inTable 2 because of rounding off. Regional Rural Analysis

25

4.3.3 BAY AND BAKOOL

The food security situation improved in all livelihoods of Bay and Bakool regions in post Gu 2013 season compared Sorghum Belt Livelihood Systems to post-Deyr (Feb-Jun 2013) season. In the snapshot analysis for July 2013, the food security situation in all rural livelihoods of the two regions was classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) [Map 1]. In the most likely scenario, area classification is expected to remain unchanged in both regions in the period August-December 2013 (Map 2). An estimated 240 000 people in rural areas of Bay (155 000 people) and Bakool (85 000 people) regions are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2), unchanged from July 2013 estimates for both regions (Tables 1, 2 and 13).

The rural areas of the two regions consist of agropastoral and pastoral livelihoods where the main sources of food of poor households include cereal and livestock production, followed by market purchases. Normally, poor agropastoral households obtain 60–70 percent of annual food requirements from crop and livestock production

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 cowpea crop production is reported in this Gu 2013 season in Bakool (300 tonnes), while cash crop (cowpeas, sesame and groundnuts) production in Bay region is above average (4 800 tonnes).

In the period January-July 2013, the ToT between daily labour rate and red sorghum exhibited an increase in the range of 3-8 kg in some rural markets in the Bay region. The exceptions were Burhakaba and Bardaale markets, where the ToT declined by 1-3 units. In July 2013, the ToT levels were higher compared to the previous year (Jul ’12) across all the rural markets. A similar trend was observed in the Bakool region. In January-July 2013, the ToT between Sorghum Field. Bakool, FSNAU, July ‘13. daily labour rate and red sorghum increased in the range of 1-6 kg of cereals per daily labour across all rural markets followed by food purchases (30–40%). Poor households of the Bakool region. In July 2013, the ToT levels were in agropastoral livelihoods earn about 50 percent of higher compared to the previous year (Jul ’12) across all their annual cash income from employment (agricultural rural markets due to high labor demand, hence high wages, labour, herding, construction labour and petty trade) and during the Gu 2013 agricultural season. Livestock holding of self-employment (sale of bush products and charcoal); all species continued increasing since December 2012 in all an additional income (25-35%) comes from the sale of livelihoods as a result of medium conception and livestock livestock and livestock products (milk, ghee, hides/skins) reproduction rates during the Gu long rainy season. Hence, and crop production sales, remittances or gifts (15-25%). livestock holding of the poor is at or slightly above baseline Poor pastoralists obtain about 80 percent of their annual for cattle and camel, but it is still below baseline levels for food requirement from food purchase supplemented by sheep and goats (Figure 23). own livestock products. Most of their cash income is derived from livestock and livestock products (74%) followed by Figure 23: ToT Labor Rate Agriculture to Red Sorghum bush product sales (21%) and cash gifts (5%). (Bay)

The improvements in the post-Gu 2013 season observed Regional Rural Analysis in both regions are largely attributable to the impact of normal to above normal Gu 2013 seasonal rains, as well as 26 humanitarian assistance in accessible areas during the first six months of the year. Specifically, factors that contributed to the improvement include: near average crop production, increased farm labour opportunities, improved rangeland and enhanced livestock conditions, high livestock prices, strengthened purchasing power. Projected below average Deyr seasonal rains will likely ensure pasture/ water availability and thus contribute to sustained good livestock conditions,but may affect farm labour opportunities for the Figure 24: ToT Local Quality Goat to Red Sorghum coming Deyr season planting activities. (Hudur - Bakool)

In the Bakool region, the Gu 2013 season cereal production is estimated at around 2 100 tonnes (90% sorghum and 10% maize), which is six percent higher than the Gu season PWA (1995-2012). In Bay, the Gu 2013 season cereal production is estimated at 33 200 tonnes (68% sorghum and 32% maize), including off- season, representing 94 percent of the Gu season PWA. Following the flash flood damage (see Agriculture article), off-season harvest from the re-planted crops is expected in the period September-October 2013. Poor households’ cereal stocks are estimated to last up to seven months in Bay high potential agropastoral and up to four months in Bay-Bakool Low Potential livelihood zones. Average

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 All livelihoods continue to benefit from high livestock prices Critical (Dec ‘12) to Very Critical phase (GAM of 22.6%; and, particularly, the SIP livelihood, where livestock is SAM of 6.0%). No nutrition assessments were conducted the main financial asset. In July 2013, the ToT between in the Bakool agropastoral livelihoods due to insecurity. The local quality goat and red sorghum in this livelihood was nutrition survey conducted in Bakool pastoral livelihoods equivalent to 157 kg/head, indicating an increase both from indicated a sustained Very Critical situation. The underlying January 2013 (101kg/head) and the same month a year causes of acute malnutrition in Bay and Bakool regions ago (145kg/head) [Figure 24]. Milk production was average include high morbidity coupled with limited access to health, in the post-Gu season in both regions due to medium safe water and sanitation services, and poor child care and to high camel calving in the previous Deyr season and feeding practices. medium kidding/lambing for sheep and goats. Summary table with indicators that contributed to the IPC Nutrition assessments conducted in June 2013 indicated a July – December 2013 Bay and Bakool regions is provided deteriorated nutritional situation in the Bay livelihoods, from in Appendix 5.8.3 of this report.

Table 13: Bay and Bakool Regions, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013

Bakool Bakool Agro-Pastoral 116,812 35,000 0 0 0 Bay-Bakool Agro-pastoral Low Potential 101,242 35,000 0 0 0 Southern Inland Pastoral 31,135 16,000 0 0 0 *Regional Total 249,189 86,000 0 0 0 Bay Bay Agro-Pastoral High Potential 315,066 94,000 0 0 0 Bay-Bakool Agro-pastoral Low Potential 178,683 63,000 0 0 0 *Regional Total 493,749 157,000 0 0 0 GRAND TOTAL 742,938 243,000 0 0 0

*The regional IPC totals in this table deviates slightly from the regional IPC figures inTable 2 because of rounding off. Regional Rural Analysis 27 4.3.4 LOWER AND MIDDLE SHABELLE 27 Shabelle Livelihood Systems The food security situation improved in most rural livelihoods of the Shabelle regions in the post Gu 2013 season compared to post Deyr (Feb-Jun 2013) season. In the July 2013 snapshot analysis, all livelihoods of the Shabelle regions were classified asStressed (IPC Phase 2) [Map 1]. In the most likely scenario, the area classification remains the same in all livelihoods in the period August-December 2013 (Map 2). The estimated number of people Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is 95 000 in Middle Shabelle, unchanged from July 2013 figures. In Lower Shabelle, 240 000 people are classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2), indicating a 14 percent increase from July 2013 estimates. An estimated 20 000 people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are concentrated in agropastoral rainfed (maize) livelihood along the coast. This indicates a deteroriation from July 2013 situation. In addition, an estimated 45 000 destitute pastoralists that had emerged following the 2011 severe food security crisis, remain in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) [Tables 1, 2 and 14].

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 Gu season damaged the late Deyr season planted crops (maize & sesame) at harvest stage and early planted Gu season maize in March in some villages (Tugarey and Bardere villages) of Jowhar district. However, the area was immediately replanted and, thus, floods had a limited impact on the overall Gu 2013 season harvest levels in the region. In Middle Shabelle, cereal stocks of poor households in riverine livelihoods are estimated to last for about eight months and for only one month in agropastoral areas. FSNAU estimated 1 600 tonnes of cash crop production in the Middle Shabelle region.

Good Maize Production. Middle Shabelle, FSNAU, July’ 13. On the other hand, in Lower Shabelle, about 70 percent of the total production came from the riverine area, while the Poor households in both the riverine and agropastoral rest was collected from rainfed agropastoral areas. Cereal livelihoods mainly depend on own cereal production (65- production in agropastoral (Wanleweyn) is far below normal 80%) for food, supplemented with food purchase (10- levels, because of increased cultivation of more profitable 20%) and own livestock production (10-15%). The poor sesame in lieu of sorghum in this Gu season 2013. Most agropastorals earn 40-65 percent of their annual cash of the sesame planting in Wanleweyn district took place income from employment (agricultural labour) and self- after sorghum crops had been damaged by the flash floods employment (collection of bush products), while 15-20 that occurred (the first dekad of April 2013). In Kurtunwarey percent is derived from the sale of livestock products. The district, river floods destroyed late plantedDeyr 2012 season poor riverine households earn over half of their annual sesame while some areas still remained under water during income by selling crops and engaging in seasonal casual the Gu season planting season, resulting in slightly below (farm) labour. The poor pastoralists in both regions obtain normal Gu season cereal production in the district. In Lower most of their annual food requirements from food purchase Shabelle, the cereal stock duration among poor households supplemented by own livestock products. Most of their is estimated at five months in the riverine and at four months annual income is derived from livestock, livestock products in the agropastoral. Cash crop production estimates are and bush product sales. equivalent to 5 500 tonnes in Lower Shabelle region. Cash crops are mostly grown by middle and better-off farmers,

Regional Rural Analysis The improved food and livelihood security in both regions who employ members of poor households as labour. is due to increased own production, improved purchasing 28 power and increased farm labour opportunities largely In July 2013, the labour wages in both Middle and Lower attributable to good Gu season rainfall performance in Shabelle showed relative stability compared to January most areas. The exception is Agropastoral Rainfed (maize) 2013. The annual comparisons indicate stability in Middle livelihood zone in the coastal areas of Lower Shabelle Shabelle and a moderate increase (17%) in Lower Shabelle region, which extends 50km from Afgoye to Barava districts, due to increased off-season agricultural activities (sesame) where Gu 2013 (Apr-Jun) season rains were below average in the region. During January-July 2013, maize prices and Hagaa (Jul-Aug) season rains were poor. The food increased across the markets of the Shabelle regions security situation in this livelihood has deteriorated because following seasonal trends, but remained relatively stable of poor Gu 2013 season harvest and the lack of food stocks compared to the same time last year. as a result of limited crop production also in the previous two seasons (Deyr 2012 and Gu 2012). Humanitarian access During January-July 2013, the ToT between daily labour has been very limited in both regions due to insecurity and rate and white maize declined by 5kg of cereals per daily is likely to remain restricted in the next six months of the labour wage in Jowhar market of Middle Shabelle region. year. In the Lower Shabelle region, ToT also declined by 3-5kg of cereals per daily labour wage across all main markets. The The Gu 2013 cereal (maize and sorghum) harvest, is ToT declines since January 2013 in both regions are on estimated at 18 500 tonnes in Middle Shabelle and 49 account of cereal price increases. Compared to a year ago 700 tonnes in Lower Shabelle. These estimates represent (Jul ’12), the ToT levels were stable in Middle Shabelle but 121 percent of the Gu season PWA (1995-2012) in Middle increased (by 3kg) in Lower Shabelle (Figures 25 and 26). Shabelle and 85 percent of the Gu season PWA (1995- 2012) in Lower Shabelle. In Middle Shabelle, 60 percent During January-July 2013, ToT between local quality goat (11 000 Mt) of the harvest was collected from the riverine and white maize declined by 94kg per head in the Jowhar and 40 percent (7 500 Mt) was gathered in rainfed market of Middle Shabelle region. Similarly, in Lower agropastoral livelihoods. Floods that occurred during the Shabelle, ToT declined by 106-126kg per head across all

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 Figure 25: ToT Daily Labor Rate to White Maize/Kg Figure 26: ToT Daily Labor Rate to White Maize/Kg (Lower Shabelle) (Middle Shabelle)

the main markets. However, annual comparisons indicate higher ToT levels in both regions. Summary table with indicators that contributed to the IPC July – December 2013 in the Shabelle region is provided in No nutrition assessments were conducted in the rural areas Appendix 5.8.4 of this report. of the Shabelle regions due to lack of access resulting from insecurity. The Health Information System (HIS) indicates stable trends of malnourished under-five children observed at health facilities both in riverine and agropastoral areas of the Shabelle regions.

Table 14: Shabelle Regions, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013

Shabelle Dhexe (Middle) Central Agro-Pastoral 36,695 7,000 2,000 0 5 Coastal Deeh: sheep 46,861 12,000 0 0 0 Shabelle riverine 53,657 16,000 0 0 0 Southern Agro-Pastoral 160,948 42,000 0 0 0 Regional Rural Analysis Southern Inland Pastoral 74,048 19,000 0 0 0 Destitute pastoralists 46,861 0 0 46,000 98 *Regional Total 419,070 96,000 2,000 46,000 11 Shabelle Hoose (Lower) 29 Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 2,534 0 0 0 0 L&M Shabelle Agro-Pastoral rain-fed & irrigated 372,273 156,000 21,000 0 6 Shabelle riverine 115,552 35,000 0 0 0 South-East Pastoral 35,475 8,000 0 0 0 Southern Agro-Pastoral 106,902 28,000 0 0 0 Southern Inland Pastoral 45,201 11,000 0 0 0 *Regional Total 677,937 238,000 21,000 0 3 GRAND TOTAL 1,097,007 334,000 23,000 46,000 6

*The regional IPC totals in this table deviates slightly from the regional IPC figures inTable 2 because of rounding off.

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 30 Regional Rural Analysis

Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical Series ReportNo. VII 51 pastoral destitute remaining in from July 2013situation. In addition, thereareabout5000 are inCrisis(IPCPhase3),whichindicatesadeterioration rural in people are Stressed livelihoods 000 65 estimated An 2]. [Map 2) Phase remain will livelihoods rural the of rest The is projectedto fall into livelihood Agropastoral Hiran the Consequently, production. cereal likely todeterioratemostlyasaresultofpoorGu2013crop security situation of agropastoral and riverine livelihoods is food the 2013, August-December during scenario, likely in classified were region the of livelihoods all analysis, snapshot 2013 compared to post-Deyr (Feb-Jun 2013) season.In the July season post-Gu 2013 this in improved region Hiran the of zones livelihood pastoral all in situation security food The 4.3.5 HIRANREGION o osue tes n oh anfd n irgtd areas. irrigated and These factors resulted in poor rain-fed cereal crop production in the both in stress moisture to lower (40%)comparedtothe lastGu1012(5300Ha)due considerably was 250Ha) (3 2013 Gu in area harvested the Therefore, costs. high to due irrigation access to able (11not were households riverine poor Besides, 200Ha). 2012 Gu Gu last the this to compared in Ha) 250 (10 area season 2013 planted 10%) (by reduced resulting slightly planting, a prevented in has planting crop of time the at livelihood riverine the in flooding localized addition, In distribution. early) and ended (started and duration the region, the of zones livelihood agropastoral and riverine In reach nearbaselinelevelsbytheendof2013. to projected is size herd camel However, levels. baseline below they stillremain by thepoorhouseholds owned species all of size herd the of Regardless, performance. seasonal average of seasons consecutive four of result a as increase gradual a continued has households poor by owned all livestock of In size herd production. the livelihoods, milk pastoral increased and 3-4) score (PET pasture availability,livestock bodycondition enhanced water and performance thatresultedinimproved rainfall average to attributable primarily is region the of livelihoods pastoral the in improvement The livestock productsales. pastoralists derivetheirincomemainlyfrom livestock and poor while self-employment, and employment agricultural communities earnincomefrom crop andfoddersales, and own production (43%). Poor riverine and agropastoral rely mainlyonmarketpurchase(57%) (35%). Pastoralists include own production (65%) followed by market purchase communities Main foodsourcesfortheriverine livelihoods. riverine and agropastoral pastoral, of consists region The as inJuly2013(Tables 1,2and15). rainfall performance was poorbothintermsof Gu rainfall Stressed (IPCPhase2)[Map1].Inthemost (IPC Phase 2) and 40 000 people (IPCPhase2)and40000people Emergency Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 2013 seasonal Gu 2013 (IPCPhase4), Stressed (IPC Figure 28:ToT GoatLocalQualitytoWhiteSorghum Poor Maize.HiranRiverine,FSNAU,July‘13. Figure 27:ToT DailyLaborRatetoWhiteSorghum n ieie oe. lo po hueod i agropastoral in households poor Also, zones. riverine in production) crop (other activities farm continued through to labour access but have 2013, from themonthofJuly available stocks cereal no have PWA).households poor the Thus, Gu the of (38% tonnes 200 1 at estimated agropastoral areas, as well as riverine the in both region, Hiran Hiran Livelihood Systems livelihood will be able to benefit from fodder sales (8 000-10 The July 2013 ToT was also considerably lower compared 000 SoSh per bundle in Jul ’13). However, social support to a year ago (Jul ’12) due to increased price of white has declined in both livelihood zones due to below average sorghum. However, anticipated increase in local quality harvest collected by the better-off households as well. goat price during the upcoming Hajj, may elevate the ToT in September-October this year (Figure 28). According to the food security cluster information, substantial humanitarian response is planned in the regions Debt levels declined in the pastoral areas as a result of in the second half of the year 2013. Projected near average good seasonal performance for livestock. However, debts Deyr rains will contribute to pasture/ water availability and have increased in riverine and agropastoral zones by 21 normal farming activities, hence farm labour opportunities percent (from $85 to $103) due to poor crop production. for the poor households. The integrated analysis of nutrition assessment data During January-July 2013, the ToT between daily labour rate indicate a Very Critical nutrition situation in Beletweyne and white sorghum decreased by 8kg of cereals per daily (mainly riverine and agropastoral) and improved nutrition labour and it was also considerably lower compared to a situation in Mataban (pastoral) districts from Very Critical year ago (Jul ’12) [Figure 27]. These declines are mainly in Deyr 2012 to Serious in Gu 2013 season. The poor attributable to increased cereal prices due to poor harvest in nutrition situation in Hiran region is mainly attributed to the the region and reduced cross-border supply from adjacent lack of access to health facilities (high morbidity rates, low areas in Ethiopia where the harvest was poor. immunization coverage).

Similarly, the ToT between local quality goat and white Summary table with indicators that contributed to the sorghum exhibited a decrease of 60kg of cereals in the first IPC July – December 2013 in Hiran region is provided in half of the year. Appendix 5.8.5 of this report.

Table 15: Hiran Region, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013

Hiraan Ciid (Hawd) Pastoral 25,760 5,000 0 0 0 Hiran Agro-Pastoral 136,727 31,000 36,000 0 26 Hiran riverine 32,633 12,000 4,000 0 12 Southern Inland Pastoral 61,511 15,000 0 0 0 Destitute pastoralists 4,067 0 0 4,000 98 Regional Rural Analysis *Regional Total 260,698 63,000 40,000 4,000 17 31 *The regional IPC totals in this table deviates slightly from the regional IPC figures inTable 2 because of rounding off.

4.3.6 CENTRAL REGIONS Central Region Livelihood Systems

The food security situation improved in most livelihoods of the central regions in the post Gu 2013 season compared to post-Deyr (Feb-Jun 2013) season. In the July 2013 snapshot analysis, most livelihoods of the region were classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) with the exception of Coastal Deeh, which was classified inCrisis (IPC Phase 3) [Map 1]. In the most likely scenario, the area classification remains unchanged in all livelihoods for the period August- December 2013. The estimates of rural people in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) are equivalent to 81 000, 30 000 and 33 000, respectively.

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 32 Regional Rural Analysis

Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical Series ReportNo. VII 51 Figure 29:ToT LocalQualityGoattoImportedRedRice power owing to high livestock prices and reduced cereal reduced and prices livestock high to owing power purchasing strengthened and poor) was availability where milk Deeh Coastal the in (except production milk species) and all (for holding livestock increased water), and (pasture resources rangeland enhanced include season 2013 post-Gu the in that situation improved factors an to contributed main was The but region. Mudug region, the Galgadud in substantial the in restricted been rains. has seasonal year Gu the of six-months first the favorable in response Humanitarian to attributed is regions central the in situation security food improved Generally product salesandtenpercentfromloansgifts. their of income from livestock sales, 24 percent from livestock percent 66 derive households poor livelihoods, the markets.Inpastoral on food requirement their agropastoral whilein purchases purchase 30-35percentof poor households livelihoods market through food oftheir (60-70%) proportion significant a obtain regions In a normal year, livelihood. poor pastoralhouseholdsinthe central three agropastoral one comprise and mostly livelihoods regions pastoral central of areas Rural Belt livelihoods(Tables 1,2and16). Coastal in projected is which figures, (IPC Phase2) These estimates indicate increases for people in Mudug Region,FSNAU,July‘13. Average SheepandGoatBodyConditions.Hobyo, and Crisis (IPCPhase3)fromJuly2013 Deeh and Cowpea Stressed Appendix 5.8.6ofthisreport. in is provided Regions Central 2013 – December July to theIPC that contributed Summary tablewithindicators livelihood improvedto Alert from Serious (Deyr 2012) seasonandCowpea-Belt to improved livelihood Addun while season, 2012/13 Deyr sustained have the to compared when zones livelihood across trends mixed Post The price andreducedrice goat increased to due 16kgs) (by increased has it where Elder of exception the with regions, central of markets the across ’12) (Jul year previous the to compared lower are ToTlevels The goat. quality local declined per cereals ToTof 5-6kg by the markets, Galkayo and Dusamareb in However, markets. Haradhere and Abudwak in 3-5kg of range the in increased rice red imported and goat quality local between ToT the 2013, January-July period the In food andincome. both for crops than rather livestock on dependency higher have agropastoralists the However, months). (2-3 season the normal is below stocks upto1-2month,which cereal have households rains. Agropastoral normal below to due season Gu tonnes) 000 (2 average the below is production crop Belt, cowpea Cowpea In insecurity. prevailing access incoastalareasisalsoverylimitedduetothe sources ofincome.Humanitarian support asadditional social and loan-taking on rely and opportunities limited income have households these holding, livestock low to livestock assets.Inaddition resulted indiminished which drought, of years several of impact the from recovered yet not have households poor of portion a as livelihood, Deeh baseline below levels. Crisis(IPCPhase2)situationpersistsinCoastal are species all Cowpea-Belt and Deeh Coastal in while baseline, near sheep/goat and above baseline is poor the of holding camel Addun and Hawd In limited accesstoexternalassistance. and due toaslowrecoveryprocessofpastoralhouseholds Deeh Coastal in persist will crisis security food However, expected. are rates kidding/calving low to medium where and milk production, mostly in Hawd and Addun livelihoods will condition livestock rains resources, rangeland positively impact seasonal Deyr normal near Projected prices. 2012 season. Hawd and Cowpea Belt livelihoods and Cowpea season. Hawd Deyr 2012 13 season nutritional situation indicates situation nutritional Gu 13season malnutrition situation since the since situation Serious malnutrition Serious fromCritical (Figure29). . Table 16: Central Regions, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013

South Mudug Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel 41,823 11,000 0 0 0 Central Agro-Pastoral 31,750 8,000 4,000 0 13 Coastal Deeh: sheep 29,257 5,000 12,000 0 41 Hawd Pastoral 16,243 3,000 0 0 0 Destitute pastoralists 12,382 0 0 13,000 105 *Regional Total 131,455 27,000 16,000 13,000 22 Galgaduud Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel 123,218 25,000 0 0 0 Central Agro-Pastoral 60,944 16,000 8,000 0 13 Ciid (Hawd) Pastoral 41,030 7,000 0 0 0 Coastal Deeh: sheep 13,586 4,000 9,000 0 66 Southern Inland Pastoral 7,453 2,000 0 0 0 Destitute pastoralists 24,849 0 0 21,000 85 *Regional Total 271,080 54,000 17,000 21,000 14 CENTRAL GRAND TOTAL 402,535 81,000 33,000 34,000 17

*The regional IPC totals in this table deviates slightly from the regional IPC figures inTable 2 because of rounding off.

4.3.7 NORTHEAST REGIONS Northeast Region Livelihood Systems

The food security situation improved in most livelihoods of the Northeast in the post Gu 2013 season compared to post-Deyr (Feb-Jun 2013). In the July 2013 snapshot analysis, the food security situation in all livelihoods of the region was classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) [Map 1]. In the most likely scenario, the area classification remains unchanged in all livelihoods in August-December 2013

(Map 2). An estimated 109 000 people are Stressed (IPC Regional Rural Analysis Phase 2), 5 000 people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and 7 000 destitute pastoralists are in Emergency (IPC Phase 33 4), unchanged from the July 2013 estimates (Tables 1, 2 and 17).

Rural areas of Northeast predominantly comprise pastoral livelihoods. In normal times, pastoralists obtain 60-80 percent of their food through market purchases, while own production (milk, ghee and meat) accounts for 20- 40 percent. The main sources of income include sales of livestock (50-60%) and livestock products (15-25%). A supplementary income of the poor includes labour employment, which accounts for 15-35 percent of the total income.

The improved food security situation in the post-Gu Average Sheep Condition. Qardho, Bari, FSNAU, July ‘13. 2013 season is attributed to such factors as increased milk availability at household level (except Coastal Deeh households as a result of reduced local and imported cereal and Nugal valley where it is very low) following medium prices and high livestock prices; increased incomes of the kidding rates in small ruminants and low camel calving in poor engaged in fishing (Coastal Deeh) and frankincense the Gu 2013 season; livestock holding above baseline for production (East Golis) activities. camel and below baseline for sheep and goat; increased income from livestock sales due to increased number of However, below normal rains in Sool Plateau and East Golis sellable animals; improved purchasing power (measured led to poor pasture and water availability in this season. through ToT between local quality goat and cereals) of poor This resulted in abnormal livestock out-migration from Sool

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 Figure 30: ToT Goat Local Quality to Imported Red Rice (Garowe & Bossaso) Near average Deyr rainfall is likely to lead to pasture regeneration and improved water availability impacting positively on livestock body condition and milk production. Increase in herd size is expected up to the end of the year as a result of medium conception rates of small ruminants in most livelihoods. High livestock exports expected during Hajj period (Oct ‘13) will improve incomes in most pastoral livelihoods. Households in parts of Coastal Deeh livelihood will benefit from resumed fishing activities following the end of monsoon season in September 2013. Based on the Somalia Food Security Cluster information, substantial humanitarian interventions are planned for the second half of 2013, which will also have a positive effect on food Plateau of Bari region to Sanaag region in Northwest and security situation in the region. increased water costs. For example, water prices in rural

markets (Rako and Kalabayr) show 60 percent increase The Post Gu 13 season nutrition situation indicates a mixed (from 3 625 to 6 000 SoSh/ jerrican-20lts) between January picture across livelihood zones when compared to that of the 2013 and July 2013 and are 33 percent higher compared to Deyr 2012 season. The nutrition situation in Nugal Valley, the same period last year (from 4 500 SoSh/jerrican-20lts). Hawd and Coastal Deeh livelihoods has sustained Serious Following reduced sea piracy, fishing activities increased in level; Addun livelihood improved to Alert from Serious coastal livelihood, leading to improved income of the local (Deyr 2012); Sool Plateaudeteriorated to Serious from population. Similarly, income from frankincense increased Alert (Deyr 2012); and East Golis livelihood deteriorated to in East Golis owing to normal seasonal harvest. Critical from Serious level (Deyr 2012).

During January-July 2013, the ToT between local quality Summary table with indicators that contributed to the IPC goat and imported red rice exhibited increases in the range July – December 2013 in the Northeast regions is provided of 12-21kg of cereals per head across the main markets in Appendix 5.8.7 of this report. of the Northeast regions. In July 2013, the ToT levels were also higher compared to a year ago (Jul ’12) owing

Regional Rural Analysis to increased goat price and reduced rice price (Figure 30).

Table 17: Northeast Regions, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013 34 Bari Coastal Deeh: sheep 7,699 2,000 0 0 0 East Golis Pastoral 85,474 26,000 0 0 0 Gagaab Pastoral 28,539 9,000 0 0 0 Kakaar pastoral: sheep & goats 28,231 8,000 0 0 0 Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral 38,062 13,000 3,000 0 8 *Regional Total 188,005 58,000 3,000 0 2 Nugaal Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel 4,211 1,000 0 0 0 Coastal Deeh: sheep 7,014 2,000 0 0 0 Hawd Pastoral 43,178 8,000 0 0 0 Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel 15,771 7,000 0 0 0 Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral 18,943 6,000 2,000 0 11 Destitute pastoralists 1,476 0 0 1,000 68 *Regional Total 90,592 24,000 2,000 1,000 3 North Mudug Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel 46,886 10,000 0 0 0 Coastal Deeh: sheep 5,259 1,000 0 0 0 Hawd Pastoral 64,968 13,000 0 0 0 Destitute pastoralists 7,126 0 0 6,000 84 *Regional Total 124,239 24,000 0 6,000 5 N.E. GRAND TOTAL 402,835 106,000 5,000 7,000 3

*The regional IPC totals in this table deviates slightly from the regional IPC figures inTable 2 because of rounding off.

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 4.3.8 NORTHWEST REGIONS

The food security situation has improved in all livelihoods Northwest Region: Livelihood Systems of the Northwest regions in the post Gu 2013 season compared to the post-Deyr (Feb-Jun 2013) season. In the July 2013 snapshot analysis, all livelihoods of the region were classified asStressed (IPC Phase 2), including West Guban which improved from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the post-Deyr 2012/13 (Map 1). In the most likely scenario, the area classification remains unchanged in all livelihoods for August-December 2013 projection period (Map 2). The number of rural people classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is estimated at 290 000. Also, an estimated 10 000 people are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and 5 000 people are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). These estimates are the same as July 2013 figures (Tables 1, 2 and 18).

Northwest regions comprise pastoral and agropastoral livelihoods. In a normal year, poor pastoralists meet 60-

80 percent of their food (e.g. rice, wheat flour, sugar and Figure 31: ToT Goat Local Quality to Imported Red Rice vegetable oil) needs through market purchases, while the remaining 20-40 percent comes from own production (e.g. milk, meat and ghee). Livestock sales represent the major source of income (50-65%) of poor pastoralists, while incomes from employment (25-30%) and livestock product sales (10-20%) are supplementary. The middle and better-off pastoral households generally earn most of their income from livestock and livestock product sales. For poor agropastoralists, own production, including crop and livestock products, represents the main source of food (86%); the income is derived through casual labour/ Regional Rural Analysis self-employment (75%), livestock sales (14%), fodder and grass sales (7%) and crop sales (4%). 35 purchasing power of the local population. In most livelihoods the accumulated debt levels indicate a decline when compared to the Deyr 2012 season. Unusual rains received in March 2013 in Guban livelihood had favourable impact on pasture, water and livestock conditions that contributed to improvement of the livelihood from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the post-Deyr 2012/13 season to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the post-Gu 2013 season.

However, in agropastoral livelihoods the Gu 2013 cereal harvest was poor, while a combined Gu/ Karan cereal harvest is estimated as below average (23 500 tonnes), Camel Calving. Sool Plateau, Sanaag, FSNAU, July ‘13. equivalent to 66 percent of the three-year average of Gu- Karan production (2010-2012). The reduced harvest is due to abnormal pest infestation and moisture stress at the Improved milk production, increased purchasing power crop establishment stage during the Gu season in Wooqoi of households and continued humanitarian support Galbeed and Awdal regions, as well as the quelea attack contributed to the improved food security situation in most during harvesting period in Togdheer region. Nevertheless, pastoral livelihoods of the Northwest regions in the post- the Togdheer region has benefitted from potential grass Gu 2013 season. Milk availability improved as a result of fodder production. On the other hand, Karan rains performed medium sheep/goat kidding and camel calving rates in normally but the harvest is expected to be delayed by about the Gu 2013 season. Reduced local and imported cereal one and half months in Wooqoi Galbeed and Awdal regions prices and increased livestock prices have strengthened (see Agriculture sector).

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 During January-July 2013, ToT between local quality goat The post Gu 2013 season integrated nutrition situation and imported red rice decreased in the range of 25-29kg analysis indicates a mixed trend in the livelihoods compared per head in Borama and Togwajale markets of Northwest to the Deyr 2012 season. The nutrition situation in the West region. Conversely, in Burao and Hargeisa markets the Golis/Guban livelihood improved to Serious from Critical ToT increased by 2-4kg per head. Compared to a year ago (Deyr 2012). The Hawd, Nugal Valley and East Golis (Jul ’12), ToT levels were higher in Borama and Zeylac but livelihoods have sustained Serious nutrition situation since slightly lower in the rest of the markets (Figure 31). the Deyr 2012 season; Sool Plateau has deteriorated to Serious from Alert (Deyr 2012); agropastoral livelihood The food security situation is likely to improve in the August- has improved to Alert from Serious (Deyr 2012). December 2013 projection period in most livelihoods given projections of near normal Deyr 2013 rainfall forecast, Summary table with indicators that contributed to the IPC normal humanitarian access and high incomes from July – December 2013 in the Northwest regions is provided increased livestock sales during Hajj festive season. in Appendix 5.8.8 of this report. Increased herd size is expected due to medium conception rates of small ruminants in the Gu 2013 season and of camel in the Deyr 2012 season. In most livelihoods, camel holdings of poor households are above baseline levels, while sheep and goat are near baseline.

Table 18: Northwest Regions, Estimated Rural Population in Acute Food Insecurity by Livelihood Zone, Aug-Dec 2013 Total in Crisis & Estimated Population Livelihood Zone Stressed Crisis Emergency Emergency as % of in Livelihood Zones Rural population Awdal NW Agro-pastoral 76,159 26,000 0 0 0 Fishing 1,149 0 0 0 0 Golis Pastoral 74,592 23,000 0 0 0 Guban Pastoral 42,612 7,000 7,000 0 16 *Regional Total 194,513 56,000 7,000 0 4 Woqooyi Galbeed Fishing 1,437 0 0 0 0 West Golis Pastoral 50,209 18,000 0 0 0 Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel 17,246 3,000 3,000 0 17 Regional Rural Analysis Hawd Pastoral 70,830 13,000 0 0 0 NW Agro-pastoral 70,191 24,000 0 0 0 36 *Regional Total 209,913 58,000 3,000 0 1 Togdheer West Golis Pastoral 23,698 8,000 0 0 0 Hawd Pastoral 223,347 44,000 0 0 0 Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel 11,984 6,000 0 0 0 Togdheer Agro-past: Sorghum, cattle 19,864 7,000 0 0 0 *Regional Total 278,893 65,000 0 0 0 Sanaag Fishing 15,193 0 0 0 0 East Golis Pastoral 37,823 10,000 0 0 0 Kakaar pastoral: sheep & goats 30,415 9,000 0 0 0 Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel 37,396 16,000 0 0 0 Potato Zone & Vegetables 7,052 0 0 0 0 Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral 61,347 27,000 0 0 0 West Golis Pastoral 18,773 7,000 0 0 0 Destitute pastoralists 6,289 0 0 7,000 111 *Regional Total 214,288 69,000 0 7,000 3 Sool Hawd Pastoral 30,108 6,000 0 0 0 Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel 72,608 32,000 0 0 0 Sool-Sanag Plateau Pastoral 7,697 3,000 0 0 0 West Golis Pastoral 0 0 0 0 0 Destitute pastoralists 730 0 0 0 0 *Regional Total 111,143 41,000 0 0 0 N.W. GRAND TOTAL 1,008,750 289,000 10,000 7,000 2

*The regional IPC totals in this table deviates slightly from the regional IPC figures inTable 2 because of rounding off.

FSNAU Technical Series Report No. VII 51 Issued October 18, 2013 IPC Version 2.0 distinguishes between two conditions of food insecurity - acute and chronic. Acute food insecurity is a is insecurity food Acute chronic. and acute - insecurity food of conditions two between distinguishes 2.0 Version IPC • • • • • • • • • • • • Some keyrevisionsinVersion 2.0include: contributes todevelopingstandardsandbuildingcapacityforfoodsecurityprofessionals. IPC the analysis, security food (3) of aspects essential and core Causes, these systematizing By analysts. and security food of work the Severity Classifying (2) Consensus, Technical Building (1) Communicating for Action, and (4) Quality functions: Assurance. Each function includes protocols (tools and procedures) that Guide four has 2 Version IPC The through acriticalevaluationoftheavailableevidenceinsupportanagreedfoodsecurityclassification. consensus-based a on approach, relies it requires the analysts to be conscious of, and IPC minimize, any potential biases in their analysis. This is the achieved because Further, analysis. livelihoods and nutrition, security, food conducting of a on based not is it as analysts security food mathematical the model. As of such, part the as analysts the are required process to on have strong analysis thinking understanding of critical the the concepts and requires technical structure details it to possible, as designed systematically is IPC the Although context. data or institutional, livelihood, economic, socio- hazard, insecurity, food of type the of irrespective context any in applicable be to designed is approach IPC The and timely. strategic, needs-based, effective, more actions security the food making to around contributes as, well situation, as makers decision security of needs food the of severity and nature IPC the the classify to Rather information mechanisms. available collection the utilizes data approach comprehensive in investment tool. continued for collection need data the or replace methodology not assessment does It an not is IPC The manner. consensus-based and relevant, reliable, practical tools and processes to ensure these questions are answered - as best as possible - include in protocols a comparable, IPC transparent, the contexts; diverse and limitations, data analysis, security food of complexity inherent the Given require. consistently makers decision that analysis situation of aspects essential the of stock driven-taking demand be to the from designed is designed is IPC the It makers, decision to information complex ‘pushing’ support. than rather Thus, making. decision of decision perspective evidence-based for situations security food of analysis complex consolidate to is purpose insecurity. Its food of severity and nature the classify to procedures and tools of set a is IPC definition, By organizations). IPC the from Technicalother and agencies partner IPC the representing experts security food of group (a Group Advisory IPC Global Support Unit based on numerous consultations with IPC country analysts, academic studies, and direct inputs by developed was 2.0 Version IPC The the years. several of past the over consultation standardization expert standards and application revised and field introduced on based revisions which released, structural was 2.0 Version of IPC number revised a a 2012, October including In protocols. 1.0, cartographic Version IPC existing the to changes and In late 2007, a decision was made by the International IPC Steering Committee to introduce some technical improvements countries. and many others at regional and national levels are collaborating to continue the development and use of the IPC in other agencies international TogetherUnion. these European governments, the national of with Centre Research Joint the and further development and use of the IPC including: FAO, WFP, USAID-funded FEWS NET, Oxfam GB, CARE, SCF-UK/US, the for partnership global a formed agencies security-oriented food of number a Somalia, in IPC the of success the Given situations. security food different classify to tool this using and developing progressively been has FSNAU then, Since 2009. in FSNAU as renamed Security was Food the which by (FSAU), Unit 2004 Analysis in developed first was IPC The 5.1 BackgroundoftheIntegratedFoodSecurityPhaseClassification Appendices5. Introducing toolsandfurther Introducing simpletoolsforidentifying causes. Restructuring theIPCanalysis templatestoimproveusabilityandanalyticalrigor Clarifying thetechnicalconsensus process core communication of aspects additional include to protocols) cartographic the as known (previously tools communication the Improving Introducing aReference Table andassociatedtoolsforanalyzing ChronicFoodInsecurity. Clarifying howtoaccountforhumanitarianassistanceinthe analysis. situation andprojectedmostlikelyscenario. Clarifying the early warning function of the IPC by having two time periods for analysis of acute food insecurity: current Clarifying andrevisingunitsofanalysisincludingspatial,population, andtemporalunits different across results comparable enable further will This contexts. factors. mortality), contribution of and set nutrition, open change, an livelihood by consumption, complimented (food four just outcomes reference IPC conceptual the Condensing used commonly four together draws four ‘dimensions’offoodsecurity(availability, access,utilization,andstability). and from builds that = Risk frameworks: framework analytical IPC an Introducing Organizing theIPCtoolsandprocessesaroundfourfunctions statedabove (Hazard, Vulnerability), Sustainable Livelihoods Approach, Nutrition Conceptual Model, and the and Model, Conceptual Livelihoods Vulnerability),Nutrition Sustainable (Hazard, Approach, f Guidelinesforqualityassurance Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51

37 Appendices

38 Appendices

Table 19: Acute FoodInsecurityReferenceTable for Area Classification Availability, Access, Utilization,andStability, Humanwaterrequirements). Vulnerability,Food & (Hazards Factors Contributing and Mortality) Status, Nutritional Change, Livelihood Consumption, (Food security food household of Outcomes include These indicators Framework. Thereference Analytical IPC area. the to given according a organized are within Phases different in classified be can households homogenous relatively of way,groups this In (Table 33). level household the at Insecurity Food Acute of Phases five for Objectives Response insecurity. food of Reference Table Phases for Household Group Classification different experiencing households of groups multiple be can there area, given a Within area. the in population whole the on based is analysis given the stated, (Tableotherwise a area Unless 1). in population the for Insecurity Food Acute of Phases five for Objectives Response General and Mortality) and Tablefor Classification Area relatively homogenous groups of households with regards to food security outcomes). two units of classification: Area-based (i.e., the overall population within a given area), and Household Group-based (i.e., has IPC insecurity,the food acute insecurity.For food acute with years of frequency high or hazards/shocks the of in absence even continue that insecurity food of levels is, that insecurity, food persistent of prevalence the is insecurity food snapshot in time of the current or projected severity of the situation, regardless of the causes, context, or duration. Chronic Phase Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 Area Outcomes Description Objectives Response General Consumption

& Name and Nutritional Mortality Livelihood Livelihood Change Status Food

U5DR CDR <18.5 BMI Wasting arestable livelihoods strategies coping atypical needs food basic meet to able are comfortably the area househ of 80% than More : <0.5/10,000/ : Build Resilience, Disaster : ≤1/10,000/ : Prevalence M Risk Reduction Risk M P P Prevalence h h i Priority i n n a a i s i s m m e e day day

: a a 1

1

< (1) mitigate immediate outcomes, (2) support livelihoods, (3) address underlying causes and chronic food insecurity if it exi : Acute Food Insecurity Refe

:

l l

3

without

<10%

% P P

olds olds

provides Reference Outcomes (Food Consumption, Livelihood Change, Nutritional Status, Nutritional Change, Livelihood Consumption, (Food Outcomes Reference provides & u u

r r

p p in in o o s s e e : :

T T U5DR CDR <18.5 BMI unstable Wasting 5 or 4, 3, 2, Phase in are the area in households the 20% of least at Table, Reference on Based o o

g g : <0.5/10,000/ : u u : ≤1/10,000/ : Disaster Risk Reduction i i d d Prevalence Protect Livel

e e the

Prevalence

S S s s P P h h

t t IPC Household Group Group Household IPC h h r o r o Priority e e a r a r t t s

s s

s

day

day t t s s e e e e : 3 : e e

r r

:

2 ihoods 2 m - m d

d : 10- 10%, 10%,

s s 20% t t r r a a

t t

, e e g g i i c c

o o provides provides a general description, reference outcomes, and General b b rence Table for Reference Table, at least 20% of 20% of least at Table, Reference the on Based U5DR CDR reference than greater <18.5 BMI incre & usual Wasting 5 4, or 3, Phase in are area the in households j j e e malnutrition, and prevent loss of c c : 0.5 : t t Protect Livelihoods i : 1 : i

v v

e e - - Cross Prevalence 2/10,000/ 1/10,000/day s s

Prevalence l l i i n n

asing P P IPC IPC k - k C Cutting Objectives h C h e e Priority r Household Household a d r d a

i i day

life

s s s t s t : 1 : o e o e i i s : s

0

m m

20-

3

3 - :

15% OR > > OR 15%

e e

, , prevent 40% , 1.5 x x 1.5 , 40% d d Group i i u u m m Area the the

a a :

n n d d

l l o o

Classification n n Reference Table, at least 20% of 20% of least at Table, Reference the on Based U5DR reference CDR <18.5 BMI increasing & > usual Wasting 5 or 4 Phase in are area the in households g g

t t : e e

: 2 : 1

r r Save L - m m 2 - Prevalence 4 E /10,000/ E

/10,000/

o o Prevalence m m P P b b Acute Food ives & & ives IPC IPC j h j h e e e e Priority a c a r c r Household t t g g s day s i i day v v

e e e e

: 15 L e e n

n

ivelihoods s : OR >2x >2x OR s 4 4

:

>40% >40%

c c

– y y

30%; OR OR 30%;

Group

the the sts Acute Food , , and (4) monitoring Insecurity Reference ence Table, at least 20% of 20% of least at Table, ence Refer the on Based U5DR CDR <18.5 BMI Wasting 5 Phase in are area the in households Prevent ( ( e e c c v v o o i i : >2 : d d n n r e : >4 : r e s s e e n n u u c q q c c m m /10,000/ ollapse Prevalence u u widespread death and total e e /10,000/ i p i p

r Prevalence r f f t t e o e o i i d o d o r r P P F IPC IPC F

n

n a a t t Priority h a , h a o , o l l

l l

w w

of livelihoods of m day

c t Household Household a m c t a

h h day l a l a a a s r s r s s : >30% : s s e e i i t t

e Insecurity e s s n

i e n i e

n n i : i

f

f

: c g c g far > 40% > far e y y e 5 5

r r

,

, i F i F

t a t

a a a e e

n n m m

r r d d i i Group a a i i

n n C C

o o

e e D D f f ) ) the the

R

R

f f

o

o

i i s s o o

d d

39

39

Table 20: Acute FoodInsecurityReferenceTable forHouseholdGroupClassification Response Objectives

Contributing Factors Household Outcomes (measure or inferred) Phase Description Food Consumption (due to(due deficits) food Access, Utilization, (Assets &Strategies) Livelihood Change Nutritional Status Nutritional Nutritional Food Availability, General Vulnerability and Stabilityand

Name and (Quantity & & (Quantity Hazards & Mortality Water

Quality)

Acute Food Insecurity Reference Table for

·

short vulnerability of minimal or None pppd liters Water stable Adequate andsho Unchanged households mother and/or child malnourished acutely p No irreversible n and normal Coping assets and strategies Livelihood: strategies. coping atypical withoutbasic needs food meet to isable HH group strategies. coping atypical withoutbasic needs food meet to isable HH group P P hazards and and hazards u u resence of mildly mildly of resence - Build Resilience, Resilience, Build r term instability term

r :

P

(1) m P

p p Disaster Risk Strategies marginally ≥ marginally N N Reduction o h o h P

; s s a a

o

riority

o

stable e e Sustainable Sustainable causing causing itigate immediate outcomes, (2) support livelihoods, (3) address underlying causes underlying address (3) livelihoods, (2) support outcomes, immediate itigate s s ot ot n n : : e e

e

e

T

T

effects effects 1

1

:

o rt term : o

15 15

g in in

g

u u i i d d e e

s s · assistance: humanitarian projected currentor withEven any consumption food and livelihoods and instability term vulnerability Effects h of pppd Water short and adequate, borderline Stressed, Unchanged mother and/or child malnourished Prese strategies’ Coping assets and strategies Livelihood: Livelihood Protection Deficit HEA CSI HHS (but deteriorating) FCS: groups) food 12 on based typical, ( HDDS: unstable & pp/day) (2,100kcal Quantity loss of 1 food group from h h

o o HH group coping strategies. coping inengage irreversible adequateto without having minimally but reduced is : = reference, but unstable but =reference, : Disaster Risk Reduction : : none or slight none : ( r r acceptable consumption ; unstable ;

nce of mildly acutely acutely mildly of nce t t Small or moderate moderate or Small : Protect Livelihoods

Strategies

marginally ≥ marginally t t

in households in deterioration of HDDS HDDS of deterioration S e S e : minimally adequate adequate minimally : P P - term unstable term

r t r t

az h h m Stressed m

r r

Priority food consumption consumption food causing short causing

e ards and and ards e a a

s s s s s s t t s s e e : ‘insurance ‘insurance : r r e e

a

a 2 15 liters liters 15 2 stressing stressing

d

d

:

t 0 t

e e -

1) g g

i i - c c

o o ,

b b j j e e c c in households in mother and/or child malnourished acutely moderately of Presence Coping assets and strategies of Livelihood: <20% Deficit de Protection HEA CSI HHS: FCS groups) food 12 on based typical HDDS (loss of 2 food groups from HDDS k 2,100 OR gap significant : Quantity · · humanitarian assistance: currentor withEven any deficits food significant resultingin loss of assets and/or short causing Effects h of Water unstable Inadequate unstable increase; Marginal cal pp/day via asset stripping asset via pp/day cal t t

i i HH HH group food items. items. food expenses from essential non livelihood strategies with meet usualabove acute malnutrition; gaps consumption : > reference and and > reference : malnutrition,andprevent loss v

v : :

Protect Livelihoods borderline consumption e e

Cross : moderate ( Substantial Livelihood : group is marginally able to able isgroup marginally

s s : ‘crisis strategies’ ‘crisis : severe deterioration of of deterioration severe

7.5 to 15 liters pppd liters 15 to 7.5 irreversible coping coping irreversible

minimum food needs only needs food minimum

l l i i n n

azards and vulnerability vulnerability and azards

- Accelerated Depletion Accelerated P and short and P k Cutting Objectives: k

has assets or diverting such as liquidating as such - ficit OR small Survival Survival small OR ficit e C e

h term instability instability term C h

Household Priority d d consumption consumption r a r a of life

significant food food significant

i

i

s OR t s t 2 s s o o

- e e i i 3) s s increasing

-

with high or m m

term term 3

3 :

e e , prevent, projected projected

d d

i i

u u

m m -

a a

n n and chronic food insecurity if it exists, and (4) monitoring and(4) exists, it if insecurity food and chronic

d Group · · d

has HH group mother and/or child malnourished acutely severely of Presence Cop assets and strategies of Livelihood: <50% HEA CSI HHS: FCS HDDS pp/day 2,100kcal below : extreme gap;Quantity much lead to gaps. consumption food asset livelihood mortality; excess malnutrition acute high very consu assistance: humanitarian projected currentor withEven any consumption consumption of livelihood assets and/or food instability vulnerability Effects h of Water unstable term short and inadequate Extremely increase Significant HH group l l Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 o o : Significantly > reference >reference Significantly : n n : poor consumption poor : ing : g g

mption gaps mption gaps : Save lives & livelihoods & lives Save severe ( Survival Deficit Deficit Survival :

:

<4 out 12 groups of food t 4 to to 4 t E in households in E e ‘distress strategies’ ‘distress e m m

resulting in in resulting r has has P r P

az m Irreversible Depletion Irreversible m Classification 7.5 liters pppd liters 7.5 h h causing short causing e e ards and and ards deficits Priority

extreme food food extreme 4

extreme extreme a a r r o s that will likely likely will that s OR o - g 6) g s

s b b

e e

e e

j j resulting in

e e n

n

4 4 c >20% but but >20% c :

large c c

t

t

lo y

y i i v v ss of

- e e

term term loss s

s

or or

-

·

HH group has near near has HH group malnourished malnourished acut severely several of Presence cope to ability Coping assets and strategies Collapse Complete Livelihood: >5 HEA CSI HHS consumption FCS groups HDDS com effectively : Quantity evident. and destitution are where starvation, death, and/or otherneeds basic food of lack complete assistanca p currentor withEven any consumption deficits consumption food complete near assets livelihood collapse complete in resulting short vulnerability Effects h of Water Volatile. utilization. and access, availability, no Effectively hhs in evident is households de Death rojected humanitarian humanitarian rojected

Prevent 0% ath and totalc C : C : : far >reference far : plete gap plete [below] [below] a a -

severe (6)

of livelihoods of term instability term Survival Deficit Deficit Survival <3 out of 12 food 12 food of out <3 :

P t : effectively no effectively : P t

due to starvation to due <4 <4

a a Priority h h s s : liters pppd liters

a

azards and and azards a widespread

near near t Near Near t poor s causing causing r s ely ely r

people in in people o e o e

p

p : and/or and/or 5

5

ollapse h

of of h

of of

i

i

c c

39 Appendices

40 Appendices

5.2.1 IntegratedPhaseClassifications(Ipc)forRural,UrbanandIDPs 5.2 Time-Series ofIntegratedPhaseClassificationsforSomalia Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 T e c 0 h n i c a 4 l 0

P a r The t T 8 n 0 e e b c r h oun s n i c da a The Combined IPC,Post rie l

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h u B C u e b e b C y a a y a l l a n l a u a n l u l a l a 5.3.1 ProgressionofRuralHumanitarianSituation,GedoRegionfrom 5.3 ProgressionofHumanitarianSituationfrom Rationale forPhaseClassificationPopulationbyLivelihood ZoneandW Region Gedo Rural Ipc,Projection Gedo Gedo Affected RegionsandLivelihoodZones Projection) (Deyr 12-13 2013 Feb -June Projection) (Gu-13 2013 Aug -Dec Affected RegionsandDistricts (Feb-Jun 2013) Timeline Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY Southern InlandPastoral Southern Agro-Pastoral Juba PumpIrrigatedRiverine Dawa Pastoral Gedo Agro-Pastoral HighPotential Baardheere Belet Xaawo Ceel Waaq Doolow Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo Luuq Districts Rural:All Districts Rural:All Areas or Districts Specific Pastoral S.I. 100%P 100%P

Pastoral Dawa SUB-TOTAL 100%P 100%P SUB-TOTAL Livelihood Zones Stressed Phase Irr. Riverine J.P./Shabelle 100%P 100%P Rural Ipc,Current UNDP 2005RuralPopulation (July 2013) Agropast S./Central Estimated Population 100%P 100%P in LivelihoodZones 247,076 247,076 80,628 42,392 15,437 20,821 39,771 48,027 111,023 AP HP HP/ Gedo Agropast Bay 46,479 31,731 31,236 26,607 100%P 100%P PostDeyr Pastoral S.I. 0% 0% Pastoral Dawa 2012/13toPostGu2013 0% 0% Post Deyr2012/13Projection Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency Irr. Riverine J.P./Shabelle Livelihood Zones Post Deyr2012/13Projection Crisis Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency Crisis Phase Rural Ipc,Projection 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0% Crisis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (Aug-Dec 2013) ealth Group Agropast S./Central Deyr 0 0% 0% 0 Emergency 2012/13toPostGu2013 Emergency AP HP HP/ Gedo Agropast Bay 0 0 0 0 Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 0 0 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pastoral S.I. 0% 0%

Pastoral Dawa Livelihood Zones Crisis Post Gu2013Projection 0% 0% Post Gu2013Projection 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crisis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Emergency Phase Irr. Riverine J.P./Shabelle Livelihood Zones 0% 0% 0 0 Agropa S./Central Emergency Emergency 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 AP HP HP/ Gedo Agropast Bay 0% 0%

41 Appendices

42 Appendices

5.3.2 ProgressionofRuralHumanitarianSituation,L andMJubaRegionsfrom Rationale forPhaseClassificationPopulationbyLivelihood ZoneandW

Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY Middle Juba Region Lower Juba Middle Juba Lower Juba Juba Affected RegionsandDistricts Rural Ipc,Projection Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 Affected RegionsandLivelihoodZones (Feb-Jun 2013) Feb -June2013 Aug -Dec2013 (Deyr 12-13 Projection) Projection) Timeline (Gu-13 Kismaayo Jamaame Badhaadhe Afmadow/Xagar SUB-TOTAL Saakow/Salagle Jilib Bu’aale Southern JubaRiv Southern InlandPast Southern Agro-Past South-East Pastoral Juba Agro-Past Lower Coastal pastoral:goats&cattle SUB-TOTAL Southern JubaRiv Southern InlandPast Southern Agro-Past South-East Pastoral Lower Juba Agro-Past Lower Juba PumpIrrigatedRiv Coastal pastoral:goats&cattle GRAND-TOTAL (Jamame) Agropastoral Lower Juba Districts Rural:Other Districts Rural:All Areas or Districts Specific SUB-TOTAL

Pastoral S.I. 100%P 50%P GRAND-TOTAL

SUB-TOTAL UNDP 2005RuralPopulation S.E. Past 100%P 25%M 75%P

Rural Ipc,Current Irr. Riverine J.P./Shabelle Livelihood Zones 75%P 25%M Stressed Phase (July 2013) 261,108 445,246 106,734 184,138 100%P 77,334 32,828 44,212 54,773 83,464 45,901 Estimated Population

in LivelihoodZones Agropast S./Central 261,108 445,246 184,138 57,005 38,810 70,183 33,354 59,304 22,725 46,816 18,232 17,297 10,984 50,119 11,637 100%P 100%P 8,780

Agropast L. Juba 100%P 25%M 25%M 25%P 50%P Pastoral S.I. Post Deyr2012/13Projection 29,000 20,000 10,000 0% 0% Crisis 5,000 3,000 2,000 9,000 2,000 5,000 2,000

Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency Post Deyr2012/13Projection 20,000 29,000 13,000 Crisis 4,000 3,000 9,000 5,000 1,000 1,000 2,000 Past S.E. Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency 25%P Rural Ipc,Projection 0 0 0 0 0 0 0%

(Aug-Dec 2013) 29,000 Livelihood Zones Irr. Riverine J.P./Shabelle Crisis Phase ealth Group 29,000 25%P 0%

Emergency Emergency Agropast S./Central 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Post Deyr Agropast L. Juba 75%P 50%P 0%

Pastoral S.I. 0% 0%

Crisis 2012/13toPostGu2013 Post Gu2013Projection Livelihood Zones 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crisis Past S.E. Post Gu2013Projection 0% 0%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Irr. Riverine J.P./Shabelle Emergency Phase Livelihood Zones 0% 0% 0

0 Emergency Agropa S./Central Emergency 0% 0%

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Agropast L. Juba 0% 0% 0% Rationale forPhaseClassificationPopulationbyLivelihoodZoneandW 5.3.3 ProgressionofRuralHumanitarianSituation,BakoolRegionfrom Region Rural Ipc,Projection Bakool Bakool Bakool Affected RegionsandLivelihoodZones Affected RegionsandDistricts (Feb-Jun 2013) Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY Projection) (Deyr 12-13 Feb -June2013 (Gu-13 Projection) Aug -Dec2013 Xudur Waajid Tayeeglow Rab Dhuure Ceel Barde Bay-Bakool Agro-Past LP Pastoral Bakool Agro Southern InlandPast Timeline

SUB-TOTAL Districts : All Rural Districts : All Rural Areas or Districts Specific SUB-TOTAL Rural Ipc,Current UNDP 2005Rural S.I. Pastoral (July 2013) Population 100%P 25%M 25%M 75%P Estimated Population 249,189 in LivelihoodZones 73,939 55,255 64,832 31,319 23,844

Livelihood Zones Stressed Phase 249,189 101,242 116,812 31,135 LP BB Agropast 100%P 25%M 50%P

Post Deyr2012/13Projection AgroPast Bakol 22,000 Crisis 6,000 6,000 6,000 1,000 3,000 100%P 75%P Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency Post Deyr2012/13Projection Rural Ipc,Projection Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency 22,000 18,000 Crisis 4,000 (Aug-Dec 2013) 0 Pastoral S.I. 22,000 25%P 0% ealth Group 22,000 Livelihood Zones Emergency Crisis Phase Post Deyr LP Agropast BB Emergency 50%P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0 Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 AgroPast Bakol

2012/13toPostGu2013 0% 0% Legend S B B B B B B S o a a a a a a o u y k y y k y u Crisis Post Gu2013Projection Crisis - o

t o - Pastoral S.I. t Post Gu2013Projection A A B h B h Livelihood Zones o o e g g e a a l l 0 0 0 0

r r 0 0 0 0 0 0 r r k A k A n o o n o o g g

- -

0% 0% o I p o I p r r n n o l o a l a

l

l A a - A - a s s p p n g t n t g a o o a Emergency Phase d r d r s r o Livelihood Zones r s o

a a P t t P - - o o l p l p

a

a r H r H a a a s a s s i s i t l l t LP Agropast BB g g

o

t o 0 t L L o h o h 0 r r o o r a

r a

a P P a w w l l : : l l o 0% 0%

o

C L C P L P t t e e o o a o a Emergency o n n w w m t m t Emergency e t t e

i i

e a P n a e P n l l t l l t o , o , i i

a

a t S t S e e l l h h n n 0 0 0 0 AgroPast Bakol e e t t 0 0 0 0 0 0 i i e a e a p l p l

& & 0% 0%

G G o o a a t t s s

43 Appendices

44 Appendices

Rationale forPhaseClassificationPopulationbyLivelihoodZoneandW Region 5.3.4 ProgressionofRuralHumanitarianSituation,BayRegionfrom Rural Ipc,Projection Bay Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 Bay Bay Affected RegionsandDistricts Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY (Feb-Jun 2013) Affected RegionsandLivelihoodZones Projection) (Deyr 12-13 Feb -June2013 (Gu-13 Projection) Aug -Dec2013 Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY Bay-Bakool- Agro-Pastoral LowPotential Bay Agro-pastoral HighPotential Baydhaba/Bardaale Buur Hakaba Diinsoor Qansax Dheere Timeline

Districts : All Rural Districts : All Rural SUB-TOTAL Specific Areas

or Districts SUB-TOTAL Rural Ipc,Current UNDP 2005Rural S.I. Pastoral Population (July 2013) 100%P 247,670 100,493 493,749 25%M 25%M 75%P 81,971 63,615 Estimated Population in LivelihoodZones Livelihood Zones Stressed Phase LP BB Agropast 100%P 25%M 50%P 493,749 178,683 315,066

Post Deyr2012/13Projection 13,000 31,000 Crisis 9,000 5,000 4,000 AP HP HP/ Gedo Bay Agropast

Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency 100%P 100%P Rural Ipc,Projection Post Deyr2012/13Projection 31,000 Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency (Aug-Dec 2013) 31,000 31,000 Crisis Pastoral S.I. 0 ealth Group 25%P 0% Emergency Post Deyr 31,000 Livelihood Zones 0 0 0 0 0 Crisis Phase LP Agropast BB 50%P Emergency 0% 0 0 0 2012/13toPostGu2013 AP HP HP/ Gedo Agropast Bay

0% 0% Crisis Livelihood Zones S B B B Post Gu2013Projection o a a a 0 0 0 0 0 u y k y o - t A B h o Pastoral S.I. e g a l Post Gu2013Projection

r r k A n o Crisis o g - o I p r 0% 0% n o l a

l A 0 0 0 a - s p n t g o a d r Emergency Phase r s o Livelihood Zones

a P t - o l p

a r H 0 a Emergency a s s i l t g LP Agropast BB

o t L o h r o r a

P a w l 0 : l o 0% 0%

C L P t e o a o n w m t t e i

Emergency a e P n l l t o , i

a t S 0 0 0 0 0 e l h n AP HP HP/ Gedo Agropast Bay e t i e a 0 0 0 p l

0% 0% &

G o a t s 5.3.5 ProgressionofRuralHumanitarianSituation,MiddlehabelleRegionfrom Rationale forPhaseClassificationPopulationbyLivelihood ZoneandW M.Shabelle Region Rural Ipc,Projection M/Shabelle Affected RegionsandLivelihoodZones M/Shabelle (Feb-Jun ‘13) (Deyr 12-13 Projection) Projection) Feb -June Aug -Dec Timeline Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY Affected RegionsandDistricts Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY (Gu-13 2013 2013 Coastal Deeh:sheep Central Agro-Past Shabelle Riverine Southern Agro-Past Southern InlandPast Destitute pastoralists & Balad) (Sorghum_Jowhar Agropastoral Southern Rural :AllDistricts Districts) Rural(Other Specific Areasor Districts Adan Yabaal Jowhar/Mahaday Cadale Balcad/Warsheikh

Pastoral S.I. 100%P 100%P SUB-TOTAL

Irr. Riverine J.P./Shabelle SUB-TOTAL 100%P 75%P Rural Ipc,Current

Livelihood Zones Stressed Phase (July 2013) Estimated Populationin Agropast S./Central 100%P 25%M 50%P 75%P Livelihood Zones UNDP 2005Rural Coastal 160,948 419,070 Population 100%P 100%P 46,861 36,695 53,657 74,048 46,861 419,070 222,167 105,266

55,717 35,920 past Destitute 0% 0%

Pastoral S.I. 0% 0%

Post Deyr2012/13Projection Post Deyr2012/13Projection Irr. Riverine Shabelle J.P./ Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency Crisis Rural Ipc,Projection 5,000 3,000 2,000 0% 0% Crisis 5,000 5,000

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (Aug-Dec 2013) Livelihood Zones ealth Group Crisis Phase Agropast S./Central 50%P 51,000 25% 0% 51,000 Coastal Emergency Emergency PostDeyr 0% 0%

46,000 16,000 19,000 11,000 46,000 46,000 Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 0 0 0 0 0 0 past Destitute L L 0% 0% e e

g g e e n n

d d S S S L C C C L C L L S S S . . . . o o h h o o o e e o

Pastoral S.I. & & & & u u a a u u a n n a

t t b

b t t s t t 2012/13toPostGu2013 s M h h M M M h h r r e t t e a a e e a a e e 0% 0% . l . . . l l l l l

r r l

l

r r

e e

S S S S r r n n n n D D e e

h h h h r r A A i i g g e e i i n n a a a a v v i i g e e g l l o o b e b b b e a a h h r r n n e r e e Post Gu2013Projection e r o o n n : : i i Crisis s s Post Gu2013Projection l n

l l

l n - - d d Crisis 2,000 1,000 1,000 l l l l S S P P

e e e e 2,000 2,000 e e Irr. Riverine J.P./Shabelle A A

h h p p

a a : : A A A A g g Livelihood Zones

a e e a s s M M r r g g g g s e 0 0 e s t t o o 0 0 0 0 0 o o r r r r a a t t p p - - o o o o o o r r i i P P a z z a - - - - r r 0% 0% P P P P a a a a e e l l : :

l l s s a

, a a a ,

: : C

C

t t s f s s s f C C o o r r a a t t t t Emergency Phase u u r r o o o o a a Livelihood Zones m m a a i i r r r r t t m m l l s a a a a s e e : :

l l l l e e l l & C C

& , 48,000 , r I r I l l

r r , a a ,

48,000 o o c c

r r

v v s i i s a i i a w w n n e g e g h h t t Agropa S./Central - - g p p a a g t t e e f f l l e e e e e t e t e e e e e e t d a a , d t , p p a

d d a

: , , s : s

b

:

: b 0% 0% 0% & o o & M s s

M

l M M l e h h r e r

a g a g g g s e e s a a i h i h o o z e e z i i Emergency z z u u a a e e p p e e Emergency m m t t , ,

s s c / c / & & S S o o

o o g g w w 46,000 16,000 19,000 11,000 Coastal r r o o p 46,000 46,000 p g g a a e e h h t t 0% 0% a a s s u u

s , , s m m 0

, , c c 0 0 0 0 0

s s a a & & e e m m

s c s c e e a a a a l l m t m t , , past Destitute t t

l l c c e e e e a a 100% 100%

t t & & t t l l

e e c c

a a t t t t l l e e

45 Appendices

46 Appendices

5.3.6 ProgressionofRuralHumanitarianSituation,LowerhabelleRegionfrom Rationale forPhaseClassificationPopulationbyLivelihood ZoneandW L. Shabelle Region L/Shabelle Rural Ipc,Projection L/Shabelle Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 Affected RegionsandDistricts Affected RegionsandLivelihoodZones Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY (Feb-Jun 2013) Feb -June Projection) Projection) Aug -Dec Timeline (Gu-13 Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY 12-13 (Deyr 2013 2013 Southern InlandPast Southern Agro-Past South-East Pastoral Shabelle Riverine L.Shab. r/fed&f/irr Coastal pastoral:goats&cattle Districts Rural :All Districts Rural :All Areas or Districts Specific Wanla Weyn Sablaale Qoryooley Marka Kurtunwaarey Baraawe Afgooye/Aw Dheegle Pastoral S.I. 100%P 100%P SUB-TOTAL

Past S.E. 100%P 100%P Riverine Irr. Shabelle J.P./ SUB-TOTAL 100%P 75%P Livelihood Zones Stressed Phase Rural Ipc,Current UNDP 2005Rural Agropast S./Central Population 100%P 75%P (July 2013) 677,937 133,627 129,039 178,605 111,364 35,044 48,019 42,239 Estimated Population Agropast Irr &r-fed L.Shabelle in LivelihoodZones 25%M 50%M 75%P 75%P 677,937 106,902 372,273 115,552 45,201 35,475 2,534 Coastal 100%P 0% Pastoral S.I. 0% 0% Post Deyr2012/13Projection 21,000 Crisis 1,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 8,000 0 Past S.E. Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency 0% 0% Riverine Irr. Shabelle J.P./ Rural Ipc,Projection Post Deyr2012/13Projection Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency 0% 0% 21,000 21,000 21,000 Livelihood Zones Crisis (Aug-Dec 2013) Crisis Phase 0 0 0 0 0 Agropast S./Central ealth Group 0% 0% Emergency 21,000 Agropast Irr &r-fed L.Shabelle 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25%P 25%P Emergency PostDeyr Coastal Legend 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0%

U S S S S S L L . & . & o o o o h r Pastoral S.I. b u u u u a a th th th th b M M n e 0% 0% e e e - l . S . S E l r r r e n n n a r i c h h s 21,000 A 2012/13toPostGu2013 i Crisis n a a t P v 1,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 8,000 o g l b b e a a r e e r o n a s Post Gu2013Projection i n l l Past S.E. - d s ta 0 l l P e e e 0% 0% to p Livelihood Zones l

a : M p A A r a s a g g a s to l r r a to : s Post Gu2013Projection 21,000 21,000 o o C r Crisis i to z a - - Riverine Shabelle Irr. J.P./ r P P a e a l r : C a l , fr a a tl : C l s s 0 0 0 0 0 : G e a to to u , s 0% 0% a m i r r ts Emergency Phase m o a a Livelihood Zones e h a & 21,000 l l e l r Ir e ts , l c e , s a v r , c p i i a n g e h & tl - a g a e fe tl te e e g 21,000 e Agropa S./Central d , s ta e p d o : M & : M b a o l ts r e g 0% 0% a g s a i h o Emergency z i z u a e e m ts ,c /S Emergency o o w r p g Irr &r-fed L.Shabelle e h 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a u s m , s 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 & e c s a a m tl e e & Coastal c a 0% 0% tl e Rationale forPhaseClassificationPopulationbyLivelihood ZoneandW 5.3.7 Progressionofthe Region Hiran Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY Rural Ipc,Projection Hiraan Hiraan Affected RegionsandLivelihood Affected RegionsandDistricts Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY Projection) (Deyr 12-13 Feb -June2013 (Gu-13 Projection) Aug -Dec2013 (Feb 2013) Timeline Destitute Pastoralists Southern InlandPast Hiran riverine Hiran Agro-Past Hiran Ciid (Hawd)Pastoral Bulo Burto/Maxaas Jalalaqsi Belet Wayne/Matabaan Zones Districts Rural :All Districts Rural :All Areas or Districts Specific SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL

Rural HumanitarianSituation,HiiranRegion Pastoral S.I. 100%P 100%P UNDP 2005Rural Rural Ipc,Current Estimated Populationin Pastora (Hawd) Ciid 100%P Population 75%P 260,698 135,580 36,445 88,673 Livelihood Zones (July 2013) Livelihood Zones Stressed Phase Agro-Pas Hiran 260,698 136,727 25%M 25%M 75%P 25%P 32,633 25,760 61,511 4,067 Riverine Hiran 100%P 25%M 75%P past Destitute Post Deyr2012/13Projection 12,000 Crisis 1,000 4,000 7,000 0% 0% Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency Post Deyr2012/13Projection Pastoral S.I. Rural Ipc,Projection 12,000 12,000 Crisis 0% 0% Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency 0 0 0 0 (Aug-Dec 2013) 16,000 Pastora (Hawd) Ciid 0% 0% 16,000 Livelihood Zones Crisis Phase ealth Group Emergency Pas Agro- Hiran 25%P 75%P 4,000 4,000 from PostDeyr Emergency 0 0 4,000 4,000 Riverine Hiran 25%P 0 0 0 0 0% Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51

past Destitute 0% 0% Pastoral S.I. 2012/13toPostGu2013 40,000 14,000 22,000 Crisis 0% 0% 4,000 40,000 Livelihood Zones 36,000 Crisis 4,000 Post Gu2013Projection Post Gu2013Projection 0 0 0 Pastora (Hawd) Ciid 0% 0% Emergency Phase Livelihood Zones 44,000 44,000 Agro-Pas Hiran 0% 0% Emergency Emergency 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 Riv Hiran 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 past Destitute 100% 100%

47 Appendices

48 Appendices

Rationale forPhaseClassificationPopulationbyLivelihood ZoneandW 5.3.8 ProgressionoftheRuralHumanitarianSituation,CentralRegionsfrom

Galgadud S.Mudug South Mudug Region South Mudug Galgaduud Rural Ipc,Projection Galgaduud Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 Affected RegionsandLivelihoodZones Affected RegionsandDistricts Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY Projection) (Deyr 12-13 2013 Feb -June Projection) (Gu 2013 2013 Aug -Dec Projection) (Deyr 12-13 2013 Feb -June Projection) (Gu 2013 2013 Aug -Dec Timeline (Feb 2013) Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY Dhuusamarreeb Xarardheere Ceel Dheer Ceel Buur Cadaado Cabudwaaq Hobyo Gaalkacyo Haradheere Hobyo & 100% Galkayo, 30% affected- Mudug: Pop South Haradheere Hobyo & 100% Galkayo, 30% affected- Mudug: Pop South Districts Rural :All Districts Rural :All Destitute pastoralists Hawd Pastoral Coastal Deeh:sheep Central Agro-Past Addun pastoral Destitute pastoralists Southern InlandPast Coastal Deeh:sheep Ciid (Hawd)Pastoral Central Agro-Past Addun pastoral Areas or Districts Specific Past. (Hawd) Ciid 100%P 100%P 75%P 75%P GRAND-TOTAL

SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL Destitute GRAND-TOTAL past 0% 0% 0% 0% SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL STRESSED PHASE Past. Addun 100%P 100%P 75%P 75%P Livelihood Zones NW Central/ Togdheer/ Agropast Rural Ipc,Current UNDP 2005Rural 25%M 25%M 25%M 25%M 50%P 50%P 50%P 50%P Estimated Populationin Population (July 2013) 402,535 271,080 131,455

74,441 52,157 61,407 66,274 36,304 32,654 54,438 24,860 Livelihood Zones Past. Inland Southern 100%P 100%P

402,535 131,455 271,080 123,218 12,382 16,243 29,257 31,750 41,823 24,849 13,586 41,030 60,944 7,453 Deeh Coast 50%M 50%M 50%M 50%M Past. (Hawd) Ciid 0% 0% 0% 0% Post Deyr2012/13Projection Destitute 24,000 13,000 10,000 11,000 Crisis 6,000 5,000 3,000 past 0% 0% 0% 0% Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency 0 0 0 0 Post Deyr2012/13Projection Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency Past. Addun 24,000 13,000 11,000 Livelihood Zones Crisis Rural Ipc,Projection 0% 0% 0% 0% 7,000 4,000 5,000 8,000 CRISIS PHASE 66,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (Aug-Dec 2013) NW Central/ Togdheer/ Agropast ealth Group 50%P 50%P 50%P 50%P 66,000 Emergency 42,000 17,000 25,000 6,000 8,000 4,000 4,000 9,000 6,000 3,000 2,000 Past. Inland Southern Emergency 0% 0%

PostDeyr 17,000 42,000 12,000 25,000 21,000 5,000 4,000 Deeh Coast 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100%P 100%P 75%P 75%P Past. (Hawd) Ciid

0% 0% 0% 0% 2012/13toPostGu2013 14,000 33,000 16,000 17,000 Crisis 8,000 8,000 3,000 Destitute Post Gu2013Projection 100% 100% 100% 100% past 0 0 0 0 Livelihood Zones 16,000 33,000 12,000 17,000 Post Gu2013Projection Crisis 4,000 9,000 8,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EMERGENCY Phase Past. Addun Livelihood Zones 0% 0% 0% 0% 67,000 67,000 NW Central/ Togdheer/ Agropast 0% 0% 0% 0% Emergency Emergency 34,000 13,000 21,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 7,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 13,000 34,000 13,000 21,000 21,000 Past. Inland Southern 0% 0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Deeh Coast 25%P 25%P 0% 0% 5.3.9 Progressionof

North Mudug North Mudug Rural Ipc,Projection Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY Affected RegionsandDistricts Nugaal Nugaal (Feb-Jun 2013) Bari Bari Affected RegionsandLivelihoodZones Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS&EMERGENCY Bandarbayla Qardho Qandala Iskushuban Caluula Bossaso Gaalkacyo Galdogob Jariiban Eyl Burtinle Dan Gorayo Garoowe Coastal Deeh:sheep Coastal Deeh:sheep Addun pastoral:mixedshoats,camel Sool pastoral;camel&shoats Kakaar pastoral:sheep&goats Gagaab Pastoral East GolisPastoral Destitute pastoralists Hawd Pastoral Addun pastoral:mixedshoats,camel Coastal Deeh:sheep Destitute pastoralists Sool-Sanag PlateauPastoral Nugal valley-lowlandpastoral:Sheep, camel Hawd Pastoral GRAND-TOTAL Rural HumanitarianSituation,NERegionsfrom SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL

Rural Ipc,Current UNDP 2005Rural (July 2013) Population GRAND-TOTAL 188,005 124,239 402,836 30,881 26,902 36,519 27,002 57,725 58,007 33,366 32,866 25,259 26,005 14,732 24,596 90,592 8,976 SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL Estimated Population in LivelihoodZones Post Deyr2012/13Projection Crisis 1,000 1,000 2,000 2,000 188,005 124,239 402,836 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 46,886 38,062 28,231 28,539 85,474 64,968 18,943 15,771 43,178 90,592 Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency 7,699 5,259 7,126 7,014 1,476 4,211 Rural Ipc,Projection 10,000 (Aug-Dec 2013) Emergency PostDeyr 3,000 2,000 2,000 7,000 1,000 8,000 1,000 Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisis Crisis 2,000 2,000 2,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Post Deyr2012/13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Projection 10,000 Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 Emergency 2012/13toPostGu2013 7,000 7,000 1,000 1,000 8,000

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crisis Emergency 1,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 5,000 2,000 Post Gu2013Projection Livelihood Zones 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Post Gu2013Projection Crisis 3,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 5,000 12,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12,000 Emergency 3,000 2,000 1,000 6,000 1,000 7,000 1,000 Emergency 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,000 6,000 1,000 1,000 7,000

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

49 Appendices

50 Appendices

5.3.9 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation, NE Regions from Post Deyr 2012/13 to Post Gu 2013 Continued Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51

Rationale for Phase Classification Population by Livelihood Zone and ealthW Group

Ciid DestituteGuban/Golis- Addun Coast STRESSED PHASE CRISIS PHASE Nugal EMERGENCYEast/West Phase Deeh Sool- (Hawd) past Guban PastPast. Livelihood Zones Livelihood Zones Gagaab Valley GolisLivelihood Past Zones Ciid DestituteAddun Coast Kakaar Sanag Past. Nugal East/West Pastoral Past. Past. Past. Sool- (Hawd) past Past. Deeh Kakaar Gagaab Sanag Valley Golis PastPast. Specific Ciid DestituteAddun Coast Pastoral/ Past. Nugal East/ Past. Past. Region Timeline Areas or Sool- West Golis(Hawd) past Past. Deeh Gebi valley Aug-Dec Kakaar Gagaab Valley Past. RuralDistricts :All Sanag75%P Past 2013 Pastoral/100%P Past.100%PPast. Past. 100%P 100%P 0% 0% 25%P 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% (Gu 2013 Districts Gebi valley 25%M Projection)

Bari Feb - June 75%P 2013 Rural :All 100%P 100%P 100%P 100%P 0% 0% 0% 0% 25%P 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% (Deyr 12-13 Districts 25%M Projection)

Aug -Dec 75%P 100%P 75%P 2013 Rural :All 75%P 75%P 25%P 0% 0% 0% 25%P 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% (Gu 2013 Districts 25%M 25%M 25%M Projection)

Nugal

Feb - June 75%P 75%P 2013 Rural :All 100%P 100%P 100%P 0% 25%P 0% 0% 25%P 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% (Deyr 12-13 Districts 25%M 25%M Projection)

North Mudug: Pop affected- 75%P 75%P 0% 75%P 0% 0% 0% 25%P 0% 100% 0% 0% Aug -Dec 70% 25%M 2013 Galkayo, (Gu 2013 100% Projection) Goldogob, 100% Jariban North Mudug: N.Mudug Pop affected- 75%P 100%P 0% 100%P 0% 0% 0% 25%P 0% 100% 0% 0% Feb - June 70% 25%M 2013 Galkayo, (Deyr 12-13 100% Projection) Goldogob, 100% Jariban 5.3.10 ProgressionofRuralHumanitarianSituation,NorthwestRegionsfrom

Rural Ipc,Projection Woqooyi Galbeed Woqooyi Galbeed (Feb-Jun 2013) Affected RegionsandDistricts Togdheer Togdheer Total Affected PopulationinCRISIS &EMERGENCY Sanaag Sanaag Awdal Awdal Sool Sool Affected RegionsandLivelihoodZones Total Affected Population inCRISIS&EMERGENCY Zeylac Lughaye Borama Baki Hargeysa Gebiley Berbera Sheikh Owdweyne Buuhoodle Burco Laasqoray/Badhan Ceerigaabo Ceel Afweyn Xudun Taleex Laas Caanood Caynabo Golis-Guban pastoral:Goats,camel Togdheer Agro-past: Sorghum,cattle Nugal Valley Pastoral:Sheep&camel Hawd Pastoral Fishing Potato Zone&Vegetables Nugal Valley Pastoral:Sheep&camel Kakaar pastoral:sheep&goats Golis-Guban pastoral:Goats,camel Sool-Sanag PlateauPastoral Destitute pastoralists West GolisPastoral Hawd Pastoral Sool-Sanag PlateauPastoral Nugal valley-lowlandpastoral:Sheep,camel West GolisPastoral NW Agro-past: Sorghum,cattle Fishing Golis Pastoral Fishing Guban Pastoral West GolisPastoral NWAgro-past: Sorghum,cattle Hawd Pastoral Golis-Guban pastoral:Goats,camel Destitute pastoralists

GRAND-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL Rural Ipc,Current UNDP 2005Rural (July 2013) Population 1,008,750 132,695 194,513 137,513 191,748 209,913 278,893 214,288 111,143 22,801 22,094 16,923 53,717 18,683 27,400 30,924 28,821 76,902 83,748 53,638 15,528 20,983 50,606 24,026 GRAND-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL SUB-TOTAL Livelihood Zones Post Deyr2012/13Projection 12,000 30,000 Crisis Population in 5,000 5,000 2,000 4,000 1,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 6,000 1,000 2,000 2,000 1,000 7,000 Estimated Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisisEmergency 1,008,750 0 0 0 0 0 0 223,347 278,893 214,288 194,513 209,913 111,143 19,864 23,698 37,396 30,415 37,823 15,193 18,773 61,347 72,608 30,108 76,159 50,857 66,348 70,191 70,830 17,246 50,209 11,984 7,052 6,289 7,697 1,149 1,437 730 0 37,000 Rural Ipc,Projection (Aug-Dec 2013) Emergency 5,000 2,000 7,000 7,000 12,000 12,000 30,000 Assessed andHighRiskPopulationinCrisis Crisis Post GuProjection 1,000 1,000 2,000 5,000 7,000 5,000 1,000 4,000 4,000 6,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PostDeyr Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 37,000 Emergency 7,000 7,000 7,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2012/13toPostGu2013

10,000 Emergency Crisis 3,000 3,000 1,000 7,000 3,000 3,000 Post Gu2013Projection 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Livelihood Zones Post Gu2013Projection 10,000 Crisis 7,000 7,000 3,000 3,000 17,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17,000 Emergency 5,000 2,000 7,000 7,000 Emergency 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,000 7,000 7,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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52 Appendices

5.3.10 Progression of Rural Humanitarian Situation for NW Regions from Post Deyr 2012/13 to Post Gu 2013 Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51

Agropast Rationale for Phase Classification Population by Livelihood Zone and ealthW Group Ciid Destitute Guban/Golis- Nugal Togdheer/Central/ Sool- East/West (Hawd) Guban Past Valley past NW Agropast Kakaar Sanag Golis Past Past. Ciid DestituteGuban/Golis- Past. Aug -Dec Nugal Togdheer/ Pastoral Past. 100%P 100%P Sool- East/West (Hawd) Guban Past 2013 STRESSED PHASE Kakaar Valley CRISIS PHASEpast Central/NW EMERGENCY Phase All districts 100%P 75%P Agropast Sanag 0% Golis0% PastPast.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% (Gu 2013 25%M Livelihood Zones 25%M Pastoral/ Past. Livelihood Zones Livelihood Zones Specific Ciid DestituteGuban/Golis- Addun Togdheer/ Past. Projection) Nugal Gebi valley Region Timeline Areas or Sool- East/West (Hawd) Guban Past Past. Central/NW Kakaar Valley past Sanag Golis Past Past. DistrictsPastoral/Gebi Past. ToghdeerFeb - June Past. valley 75%P 2013 All districts 100%P 100%P 100%P 25%P 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% (Deyr 12-13 25%M Projection)

Aug -Dec 100%P 100%P 2013 All districts 100%P 75%P 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% (Gu 2013 25%M 25%M Projection) Saanag Feb - June 75%P 2013 All districts 100%P 100%P 100%P 0% 0% 25%P 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% (Deyr 12-13 25%M Projection) Aug-Dec 100%P 100%P 2013 All districts 100%P 75%P 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% (Gu 2013 25%M 25%M Projection) Sool Feb - June 75%P 2013 All districts 100%P 100%P 100%P 0% 25%P 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% (Deyr 12-13 25%M Projection) Aug -Dec 100%P 2013 All districts 100%P 75%P 50%P 0% 0% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% (Gu 2013 25%M Projection) W. GalbeedFeb - June 25%P 2012 All districts 100%P 100%P 100%P 0% 0% 75%P 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% (Deyr 12-13 50%M Projection) Aug -Dec 100%P 2013 All districts 100%P 50%P 0% 50%P 0% 0% 0% 0% (Gu 2013 25%M Projection) Awdal Feb - June 25%P 2012 All districts 100%P (Deyr 12-13 Projection)

100%P 0% 75%P 0% 0% 0% 0% 50%M 5.4.1 EstimatedRural inclusive ofpopulationinStressed,Crisis andEmergency 2 1 Gu Gu Post 5.4 Estimated numbers areroundedtothe nearest one thousand,basedonresident population not considering current or anticipated migration, and are Source: Population Estimates by Region/District, UNDP Somalia, August 1, 2005. Note this only includes population figures in affected regions. affected in figures population includes only this Note 2005. 1, UNDPSomalia, Region/District, August by Estimates Population Source: 9/17/2013 AM 8:31 FSNAU doesnotroundthesepopulation estimatesastheyaretheofficialprovidedbyUNDP Togdheer Galbeed Woqooyi Borama Baki Awdal Galgaduud Mudug South Mudug North Nugaal Bari Sool Sanaag Berbera Lughaye Gebiley Zeylac Hargeysa Burco Buuhoodle Owdweyne Sheikh Ceel Afweyn Laasqoray/Badhan Ceerigaabo Caynabo Laas Caanood Laas Taleex Xudun Bossaso Caluula Bandarbayla Iskushuban Qandala Burtinle Gaalkacyo Garoowe Eyl Qardho Galdogob Dan Gorayo Jariiban Gaalkacyo Hobyo Xarardheere Cabudwaaq Cadaado Ceel Buur Ceel Dheer Ceel Dhuusamarreeb 2013 E District stimated P stimated Populationin Acute FoodInsecurityby Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total opulation in Acute Food I in Food Acute opulation UNDP 2005 TotalUNDP 2005 Population 215,616 305,455 560,028 288,211 700,345 402,295 114,846 270,367 164,906 150,277 367,638 145,341 176,007 174,092 330,057 25,500 60,753 36,104 79,564 28,235 38,428 42,031 33,625 65,797 89,724 30,702 75,436 25,354 18,785 40,002 14,376 45,027 42,502 34,674 96,367 57,991 32,345 60,825 40,433 20,331 39,207 41,300 67,249 65,543 41,067 45,630 79,092 73,008 91,260 1 1 UNDP 2005 RuralUNDP 2005 Population 132,695 194,513 137,513 191,748 209,913 278,893 214,288 111,143 188,005 124,239 131,455 271,080 90,592 16,923 18,683 22,094 53,717 22,801 28,821 30,924 27,400 53,638 83,748 76,902 24,026 50,606 20,983 57,725 15,528 27,002 36,519 26,902 26,005 58,007 24,596 25,259 30,881 33,366 14,732 32,866 24,860 54,438 52,157 32,654 36,304 66,274 61,407 74,441 8,976 1 nsecurity by D nsecurity Stressed 56,000 58,000 65,000 69,000 41,000 24,000 58,000 24,000 46,000 17,000 27,000 38,000 42,000 10,000 21,000 21,000 27,000 54,000 16,000 17,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 11,000 14,000 14,000 14,000 4,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 6,000 7,000 9,000 9,000 7,000 3,000 8,000 8,000 5,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 7,000 5,000 6,000 6,000 District 2 istrict ( istrict , Aug- Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 16,000 17,000 14,000 Crisis Crisis 1,000 7,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 1,000 2,000 1,000 8,000 8,000 3,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Aug- D 2 ec 2013 ec D ec 2013 ec Emergency 13,000 21,000 2,000 7,000 5,000 1,000 3,000 1,000 2,000 6,000 1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 3,000 6,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ) 2 Emergency as % of of % as Emergency Rural population Total in & Crisis 16 14 13 11 22 22 29 12 11 29 14 6 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 3 4 6 0 5 7 4 6 5 3 8 9 8

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54 Appendices

5.4.1 EstimatedRuralPopulationin 9/17/2013 AM 8:31 Juba Hoose (Lower) Hoose Juba (Middle) Dhexe Juba Gedo Bay Bakool (Lower) Hoose Shabelle (Middle)Shabelle Dhexe Weyne/Matabaan Belet Hiraan Jalalaqsi Burto/Maxaas Bulo Adan Yabaal Adan Balcad/Warsheikh Cadale Jowhar/Mahaday Afgooye/Aw Dheegle Baraawe Kurtunwaarey Marka Qoryooley Sablaale Wanla Weyn Wanla Ceel Barde Rab Dhuure Tayeeglow Waajid Xudur Baydhaba/Bardaale Buur Hakaba Diinsoor Qansax Dheere Qansax Belet Xaawo Belet Baardheere Ceel Waaq Ceel Doolow Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo Luuq Bu'aale Saakow/Salagle Jilib Afmadow/Xagar Badhaadhe Jamaame Grand Total Banadir Kismaayo Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 District Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total UNDP 2005 TotalUNDP 2005 Population 7,502,654

172,049 111,038 329,811 136,007 269,257 211,712 514,901 192,939 134,205 155,643 850,651 320,463 310,627 125,616 620,562 106,172 328,378 113,415 238,877 129,149 901,183 166,667 385,790 46,724 62,917 46,720 Acute FoodInsecurity 57,652 55,445 43,055 29,179 37,652 81,053 69,694 93,049 75,769 98,714 55,989 19,996 26,495 57,023 62,703 59,489 65,973 51,334 38,640 1 UNDP 2005 RuralUNDP 2005 Population 4,607,086 135,580 260,698 105,266 222,167 178,605 419,070 129,039 111,364 133,627 677,937 247,670 249,189 100,493 493,749 247,076 184,138 106,734 261,108 88,673 36,445 55,717 35,920 42,239 48,019 35,044 23,844 31,319 64,832 55,255 73,939 63,615 81,971 80,628 42,392 15,437 20,821 39,771 48,027 83,464 45,901 54,773 44,212 32,828 77,334 - 1 byDistrict, 1,312,000 Stressed 238,000 157,000 63,000 96,000 86,000 23,000 31,000 84,000 23,000 51,000 59,000 61,000 69,000 15,000 18,000 47,000 41,000 13,000 35,000 12,000 10,000 22,000 18,000 24,000 78,000 33,000 20,000 26,000 30,000 15,000 14,000 14,000 20,000 14,000 17,000 12,000 18,000 22,000 9,000 9,000 5,000 4,000 7,000 9,000 - 2 Aug- D 111,000 40,000 21,000 14,000 22,000 Crisis Crisis 4,000 1,000 1,000 2,000 8,000 2,000 2,000 4,000 4,000 1,000 ec 2013 ec 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 2 continued Emergency 46,000 16,000 19,000 11,000 98,000 4,000 4,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 2 Emergency as % of of % as Emergency Rural population Total in & Crisis 19 16 11 17 31 18 33 11 0 4 5 4 3 4 3 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 - 5.4.2 EstimatedUrbanPopulationin Acute FoodInsecurityby 9/17/2013 8:48 AM Galgaduud Mudug Nugaal Bari Sool Sanaag Togdheer Galbeed Woqooyi Baki Awdal Borama Lughaye Zeylac Berbera Gebiley Hargeysa Burco Buuhoodle Owdweyne Sheikh Badhan Ceel Afweyn Ceerigaabo Laasqoray Caynabo Laas Caanood Taleex Xudun Bandarbayla Iskushuban Caluula Bossaso Qardho Qandala Burtinle Dan Gorayo Dan Eyl Garoowe Gaalkacyo Galdogob Hobyo Jariiban Xarardheere Cabudwaaq Cadaado Ceel Buur Ceel Dheer Dhuusamarreeb are inclusiveofpopulationinStressed,CrisisandEmergency 2 1 Estimated numbers areroundedtothenearest one thousand,basedonresident population not considering current or anticipated migration, and Source: Population Estimates by Region/District, UNDP Somalia, August 1, 2005. Note this only includes population figures in affected in figures population includes only this Note 2005. 1, August Somalia, UNDP Region/District, by Estimates Population Source: regions. FSNAUdoesnotroundthesepopulationestimatesastheyaretheofficialprovidedbyUNDP District Sub-Total Sub-Total Sub-Total Sub-Total Sub-Total Sub-Total Sub-Total Sub-Total Sub-Total UNDP 2005 Total Total 2005 UNDP Population 305,455 700,345 402,295 215,616 270,367 560,028 150,277 367,638 288,211 145,341 114,846 350,099 164,906 330,057 137,667 25,500 36,104 28,235 60,753 79,564 38,428 42,031 33,625 55,000 65,797 34,724 30,702 75,436 25,354 18,785 14,376 45,027 40,002 60,825 42,502 34,674 20,331 32,345 57,991 40,433 67,249 39,207 65,543 41,067 45,630 79,092 73,008 91,260 1 UNDP 2005 Urban Population 110,942 490,432 123,402 422,515 179,633 107,181 82,921 14,010 42,070 25,847 96,463 11,107 12,159 31,098 56,079 24,830 39,134 13,000 29,944 15,600 33,395 54,749 54,800 12,811 13,386 94,405 12,818 11,601 16,819 58,977 8,577 5,434 9,607 6,225 7,322 5,500 6,676 4,371 3,257 5,400 8,508 8,669 5,599 7,086 7,067 6,341 8,413 9,326 1 Urban in Stressed in Urban 123,000 106,000 17,000 23,000 11,000 39,000 49,000 13,000 10,000 16,000 21,000 36,000 13,000 21,000 16,000 10,000 11,000 41,000 34,000 2,000 3,000 1,000 6,000 4,000 4,000 2,000 2,000 3,000 7,000 1,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 3,000 2,000 6,000 3,000 3,000 2,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 7,000 9,000 8,000 8,000 2 District, Urban in Crisis in Urban 19,000 32,000 1,000 2,000 2,000 5,000 3,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Aug- 2 Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 D ec 2013 ec Urban in Emergency Emergency in Urban 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Emergency as % of Urban Urban of % as Emergency Total Urban in Crisis and and Crisis in Urban Total population 19 15 18 24 17 19 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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56 Appendices

9/17/2013 8:48 AM Juba Hoose (Lower) Hoose Juba (Middle) Dhexe Juba Gedo Bay Bakool Banadir (Lower)Shabelle Hoose YabaalAdan (Middle) Dhexe Shabelle Burto/Maxaas Bulo Weyne/Matabaan Belet Hiraan Balcad Jalalaqsi Cadale Jowhar Mahaday Warsheikh Afgooye Aw Dheegle Baraawe Kurtunwaarey Marka Qoryooley Sablaale Wanla Weyn Wanla Banadir Ceel Barde Rab Dhuure Rab Tayeeglow Waajid Xudur Baydhaba/Bardaale Buur Hakaba Diinsoor Qansax Dheere Qansax Baardheere Belet Xaawo Belet Ceel Waaq Ceel Doolow Garbahaarey/Buur Dhuubo Luuq Bu'aale Jilib Jilib Saakow/Salagle Jamaame Badhaadhe Afmadow/Xagar Kismaayo 5.4.2 EstimatedUrbanPopulationin Acute FoodInsecurityby Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 District Grand Total Grand Sub-Total Sub-Total Sub-Total Sub-Total Sub-Total Sub-Total Sub-Total Sub-Total Sub-Total UNDP 2005 Total Total 2005 UNDP Population 7,502,654 329,811 514,901 850,651 111,038 172,049 120,434 901,183 218,027 135,012 310,627 192,939 134,205 620,562 155,643 901,183 328,378 238,877 320,463 125,616 385,790 106,172 113,415 129,149 166,667 62,917 46,724 46,720 51,230 15,573 76,700 57,652 55,445 43,055 29,179 37,652 81,053 69,694 93,049 75,769 98,714 55,989 19,996 26,495 57,023 62,703 59,489 65,973 38,640 51,334 1 UNDP 2005 Urban Population 2,895,568 172,714 901,183 126,813 901,183 124,682 22,365 36,469 69,113 28,106 10,279 10,800 36,844 10,246 95,831 21,602 11,505 15,413 63,900 22,841 22,016 16,221 14,439 19,110 61,438 72,793 25,123 12,154 16,743 25,544 13,597 17,252 14,676 81,302 13,588 29,951 11,200 54,739 22,415 89,333 7,200 2,635 7,426 8,011 5,335 6,333 4,559 5,674 5,812 7,122 1 Urban in Stressed in Urban 133,000 198,000 198,000 977,000 11,000 21,000 20,000 26,000 70,000 16,000 12,000 48,000 18,000 18,000 11,000 12,000 39,000 18,000 14,000 48,000 11,000 37,000 10,000 22,000 10,000 42,000 23,000 33,000 6,000 7,000 3,000 9,000 7,000 2,000 9,000 6,000 6,000 3,000 4,000 9,000 7,000 9,000 6,000 2,000 3,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 2,000 2,000 District, Urban in Crisis in Urban 2 12,000 51,000 7,000 2,000 4,000 1,000 2,000 1,000 1,000 8,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Aug- 2 D ec 2013continued ec Urban in Emergency Emergency in Urban 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Emergency as % of Urban Urban of % as Emergency Total Urban in Crisis and and Crisis in Urban Total population 10 11 10 17 14 10 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 2 5.4.3 EstimatedRuralPopulationin Acute FoodInsecurityby 2 1 9/17/2013 AM 8:35 Nugaal Bari Sool Sanaag Togdheer Galbeed Woqooyi Agro-pastoralNW Awdal West Golis Pastoral Golis West Fishing Pastoral Golis Fishing Hawd Pastoral Hawd Golis-Guban pastoral: Goats, camel Pastoral Guban NW Agro-pastoralNW East Golis Pastoral Golis East Fishing Togdheer Agro-past:cattle Sorghum, & camel Sheep Pastoral: Valley Nugal Pastoral Hawd Pastoral Golis West Nugal Valley Pastoral: Sheep & camel Sheep Pastoral: Valley Nugal Pastoral Hawd & camel Sheep Pastoral: Valley Nugal goats & sheep pastoral: Kakaar East Golis Pastoral Golis East sheep Deeh: Coastal pastoralists Destitute Pastoral Golis West Pastoral Plateau Sool-Sanag Pastoral Plateau Sool-Sanag & Vegetables Zone Potato Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel Mudug North Pastoral Plateau Sool-Sanag goats & sheep pastoral: Kakaar Pastoral Gagaab pastoralists Destitute Pastoral Golis West Hawd Pastoral Hawd sheep Deeh: Coastal pastoralists Destitute Pastoral Plateau Sool-Sanag & camel Sheep Pastoral: Valley Nugal Pastoral Hawd sheep Deeh: Coastal Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel Sub-total pastoralists Destitute Estimated numbers are rounded to the nearest one thousand, based on resident population not considering current or anticipated or current considering not population resident on based thousand, one nearest the to rounded are numbers Estimated migration, andareinclusiveofpopulationinStressed,CrisisEmergency affected regions.FSNAUdoesnotroundthesepopulationestimatesastheyaretheofficial estimatesprovidedbyUNDP Source: Population Estimates by Region/District, UNDP Somalia, August 1, 2005. Note this only includes population figures in figures population includes only this Note 2005. 1, August Somalia, UNDP Region/District, by Estimates Population Source: Livelihood Zone Livelihood Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Estimated PopulationEstimated in Livelihood Zones Livelihood in 194,513 278,893 223,347 209,913 214,288 111,143 188,005 124,240 90,592 76,159 50,209 66,348 70,830 17,246 50,857 70,191 37,823 15,193 19,864 11,984 23,698 72,608 30,108 37,396 30,415 85,474 61,347 46,886 38,062 28,231 28,539 18,773 64,969 18,943 15,771 43,178 1,437 1,149 7,699 7,697 7,052 6,289 5,259 1,476 7,014 4,211 7,126 730 0 1 Stressed 56,000 65,000 58,000 41,000 69,000 24,000 58,000 24,000 26,000 18,000 23,000 13,000 44,000 24,000 10,000 32,000 16,000 26,000 27,000 10,000 13,000 13,000 3,000 7,000 7,000 6,000 8,000 6,000 9,000 2,000 3,000 8,000 9,000 7,000 1,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2,000 1,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Livelihood Zones, 1 Crisis Crisis 7,000 3,000 7,000 3,000 2,000 2,000 3,000 3,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 Aug- Emergency D ec 2013 ec 7,000 7,000 1,000 1,000 6,000 6,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Emergency as % of of % as Emergency Rural population Total in & Crisis 111 17 14 68 11 84 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 0

57 Appendices

58 Appendices

5.4.3 EstimatedRuralPopulationin Acute FoodInsecurityby Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 9/17/2013 AM 8:35 Coastal Deeh: sheep sheep Deeh: Coastal Central Agro-Pastoral L&M Shabelle Agro-Pastoral rain-fed & irrigated riverine Shabelle Hiran riverine Hiran Hiran Agro-Past Ciid Pastoral (Hawd) Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle goats pastoral: Coastal Agro-PastSouthern Southern Inland Past Southern Inland Past Shabelle riverine Shabelle Southern Inland Past Agro-PastSouthern Pastoral South-East Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel Central Agro-Pastoral Juba Hoose (Lower) Hoose Juba (Middle) Dhexe Juba Gedo Bay Bakool (Lower) Hoose Shabelle (Middle)Shabelle Dhexe Hiraan Galgaduud Addun pastoral: mixed shoats, camel Mudug South Destitute pastoralists Destitute pastoralists Destitute Bakool Agro-Pastoral Southern Inland Past Bay-Bakool Agro-pastoral LowPotential Destitute pastoralists Destitute Southern Inland Past sheep Deeh: Coastal Ciid Pastoral (Hawd) sheep Deeh: Coastal Central Agro-Pastoral Bay Agro-Pastoral High Potential High Agro-Pastoral Bay Bay-Bakool Agro-pastoral LowPotential pastoralists Destitute Pastoral Hawd Gedo Agro-Pastoral High Potential High Agro-Pastoral Gedo Dawa Pastoral Juba Pump Irrigated Riv Southern Agro-PastSouthern Southern Inland Past Southern Agro-PastSouthern South-East Pastoral South-East Lower Juba Agro-Past Juba Lower Juba Pump Irrigated Riv Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle goats pastoral: Coastal Southern Juba Riv Southern Inland Past Lower Juba Agro-Past Juba Lower Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle goats pastoral: Coastal South-East Pastoral South-East Southern Juba Riv Southern Inland Past Southern Agro-PastSouthern Livelihood Zone Livelihood Grand Total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Sub-total Estimated PopulationEstimated in Livelihood Zones Livelihood in 4,607,086 372,273 260,698 136,727 419,070 160,948 106,902 115,552 271,080 123,218 677,937 101,242 116,812 131,454 249,189 493,749 178,683 315,066 111,023 247,076 184,138 261,108 46,861 36,695 53,657 32,633 25,760 74,048 61,511 45,201 35,475 60,944 52,761 46,861 31,135 20,806 17,628 41,030 22,963 31,750 11,550 12,430 26,607 31,236 31,731 46,479 46,816 18,232 17,297 10,984 59,304 22,725 70,183 33,354 38,810 57,005 50,119 11,637 2,534 4,067 7,453 8,780 1 1,312,000 Stressed 156,000 238,000 157,000 63,000 96,000 54,000 27,000 86,000 84,000 51,000 61,000 12,000 31,000 16,000 42,000 12,000 28,000 35,000 25,000 19,000 15,000 11,000 35,000 35,000 16,000 11,000 16,000 63,000 94,000 14,000 36,000 11,000 11,000 12,000 16,000 18,000 21,000 12,000 17,000 7,000 5,000 8,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 5,000 8,000 3,000 6,000 3,000 6,000 2,000 7,000 4,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Livelihood Zones, 111,000 40,000 17,000 16,000 21,000 36,000 21,000 12,000 2,000 2,000 4,000 Crisis Crisis 9,000 4,000 8,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Aug- Emergency 21,000 46,000 13,000 98,000 46,000 21,000 13,000 4,000 4,000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 D ec 2013continued ec 2 Emergency as % of of % as Emergency Rural population Total in & Crisis 101 113 17 26 14 11 98 12 22 98 51 13 13 52 5 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5.5 Factors that Determined the July-December 2013 IPC in Urban Livelihoods of Somalia

Changes Main Terms of Trade (daily HH Asset Food Share of Food Cost of Food in CMB of Cost Nutrition Food Consumption Score (FCS) Food wages to local cereals IPC Phases Diversity Availability Expenditure (%) (Dec. 2012) of the Classification:Dec’12 Source(s) (sorghum or maize) MEB Dec’5 Dec.’12 Rural: Urban: Deyr Gu Deyr Gu Deyr Deyr Gu Dec- Jul- Year Deyr Region Deyr 2012/’13 Gu 2013 Gu 2013 Deyr 2012/13 Gu 2013 Gu 2013 Dec-12 Jul-13 vs July Gu 2013 Aug-Dec Aug-Dec 2012/13 2013 2012/13 2013 2012/13 2012/13 2013 12 13 Average 2012/13 2013 2013 2013 (July) Poor- 9% Market Awdal Borderline-9% NA 7.25 NA 1% NA increase increase Stable Improving* 77% NA 79% 76% 5 12 11 -16% Alert Alert Stressed Stressed purchase Acceptable-82% Poor- 14% Market W.Galbeed Borderline-10% NA 10.53 NA 2% NA increase increase Stable Improving* 77% NA 76% 77% 9 12 18 -1% Serious Alert Stressed Stressed purchase Acceptable-76% Poor- 36% Market Togdheer Borderline-8% NA 15.69 NA 6% NA increase increase Stable Improving* 78% NA 83% 83% 8 8 10 -1% Alert Serious Stressed Stressed purchase Acceptable-56%

Poor- 35% Market Sanaag Borderline-18% NA 36.15 NA 11% NA increase increase Stable Improving* 76% NA 71% 68% 5 8 7 -1% Serious Serious Stressed Stressed purchase Acceptable-47%

Poor- 15% Market Sool Borderline-9% NA 28.51 NA 7% NA increase increase Stable Improving* 74% NA 74% 74% 5 7 8 -8% Alert Acceptable Stressed Stressed purchase Acceptable-76%

Poor- 9% Market Bari Borderline-9% NA 10.24 NA 3% NA increase increase Stable Improving* 64% NA 87% 86% 4 8 7 -6% Critical Very Critical Stressed Stressed purchase Acceptable-82%

Poor- 1% Market Nugaal Borderline-3% NA 12.19 NA 0% NA increase increase Stable Improving* 65% NA 86% 87% 4 6 6 2% Serious Serious Stressed Stressed purchase Acceptable-96%

Poor- 4% Market N Mudug Borderline-6% NA 11.02 NA 0% NA increase increase Stable Improving* 62% NA 69% 67% 9 12 13 -1% Serious Serious Stressed Stressed purchase Acceptable-91% Poor- 11% Poor- 16% Market Banadir Borderline-11% Borderline-16% 41.14 38.36 2% 2% increase increase Improving* Improving* 67% 79% 63% 63% 7 18 15 1% Alert Alert Stressed Stressed purchase Acceptable-78% Acceptable-68% Market S Mudug NA NA NA NA NA NA increase increase Stable Improving* 84% NA 74% 76% 7 6 6 -3% Serious Serious Stressed Stressed purchase Market Galgaduud NA NA NA NA NA NA increase increase Stable Improving* 73% NA 73% 75% 5 7 8 3% Alert Alert Stressed Stressed purchase Market Hiiraan NA NA NA NA NA NA increase increase Improving ** Improving* 73% NA 71% 72% 10 18 10 4% NA Very Critical Crisis Stressed purchase Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 Market M Shabelle NA NA NA NA NA NA increase increase Improving ** Improving* 79% NA 73% 69% 4 15 7 -2% NA NA Stressed Stressed purchase Market Afgoye L Shabelle NA NA NA NA NA NA increase increase Improving ** Improving* 70% NA 62% 58% 6 15 12 -4% NA Stressed Stressed purchase (Alert) Market M Juba NA NA NA NA NA NA increase increase Improving ** Improving* 72% NA 73% 67% 11 16 18 -13% NA NA Stressed Stressed purchase Market Kismayo L Juba NA NA NA NA NA NA increase increase Improving ** Improving* 83% NA 70% 64% 7 10 12 -11% NA Stressed Stressed purchase (Alert) Market Gedo NA NA NA NA NA NA increase increase Improving ** Improving* 64% NA 71% 69% 10 18 20 -9% NA NA Stressed Stressed purchase Market Bay NA NA NA NA NA NA increase increase Improving ** Improving* 71% NA 59% 57% 9 22 20 -6% NA NA Stressed Stressed purchase Market Bakool NA NA NA NA NA NA increase increase Improving ** Improving* 77% NA 76% 70% 5 6 10 -21% NA NA Stressed Stressed purchase

(Footnotes) * due to improving security, increased port movement and opening of trade and investment opportunities * good crop production prospects throughout the South

59 Appendices

60 Appendices

5.6 Factors that Determined the July-December 2013 IPC in IDP Settlements Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51

HH with HH with HH with Poor Main Food Food % of % of Poor Poor % of HH % of HH Current Dietary Mean Mean Mean Average Average Sources cost cost HHs with HHs with Global Acute IPC PHASE: Dietary Dietary with food with food Global Acute Mortality: Phase Diversity CSI: CSI: CSI: Number Number Main Sources of of Food of the of the access access Malnutrition Mortality: (Jan. 2013; Settlement Diversity Diversity spending spending Malnutrition Oct-Deyr Jul. 2013; (<4 food Gu Deyr Gu of Assets: of Assets: Food: Deyr ‘12 (Milk/or CMB: CMB: to safe to safe (GAM): Deyr Oct-Gu ‘13 Projected (<4 food (<4 food >75%: Deyr >75%: Gu (GAM): Gu ‘13 ‘12 Projected groups- ‘12 ‘12 ‘13 Deyr’12/’13 Gu ‘13 Cereals): Deyr Gu water: water: ‘12 Jan-Jun ‘13 groups- Gu groups- ‘12 ‘13 Aug.-Dec.’13 Deyr Gu ‘13 ‘12 ‘13 Deyr ‘12 Gu ‘13 ‘12 Gu ‘13 ‘12/’13 Market Hargeisa 4.5% 3.2% 5.5% 22.9 14.2 22.9 1 2 Market purchase 77% 78% 66.0% 57.3% 97.8% 74.0% Serious Critical Acceptable Acceptable Crisis Crisis purchase Market Berbera 13.0% 5.9% 5.8% 27.4 12.9 17.2 1 2 Market purchase 77% 76% 53.0% 63.5% 97.4% 94.8% Critical Alert Acceptable Acceptable Emergency Crisis purchase Market Burco - 26.2% 4.8% 21.9 13.7 26.4 1 2 Market purchase 78% 83% 60.0% 71.4% 98.4% 99.0% Critical Serious Acceptable Acceptable Emergency Crisis purchase Market Bossaso 2.1% 29.9% 0.5% 25.2 22.9 22.7 1 3 Market purchase 87% 86% 63.0% 54.5% 67.7% 100.0% Critical Critical Acceptable Acceptable Emergency Crisis purchase Market purchase Market Qardho 5.0% - 1.7% 48.8 25.0 27.6 1 2 followed by 87% 86% 56.0% 64.0% NA 90.0% Critical Serious Alert Acceptable Emergency Crisis purchase food aid Market Garowe 6.0% 20.8% 1.2% 22.6 24.3 25.5 1 1 Market purchase 86% 87% 60.0% 72.5% 67.9% 75.1% Serious Critical Acceptable Acceptable Crisis Crisis purchase Market purchase Market Galkayo 2.8% 2.7% 10.3% 22.6 24.6 21.1 1 2 followed by 71% 68% 56.0% 65.2% 97.7% 100.0% Critical Critical Acceptable Acceptable Emergency Crisis purchase food aid Market Dhusamareb - - 24.1% 37.8 52.5 24.8 1 2 Market purchase 73% 74% 50.0% 54.3% NA 97.0% Very Critical Critical Critical Acceptable Emergency Emergency purchase Market Banaadir - - 2.7% 62.6 58.4 36.8 1 2 Market purchase 63% 63% 48.0% 91.7% NA 54.4% Critical Serious Serious Critical Emergency Crisis purchase Market Baidoa - - 6.6% NA NA 19.9 1 2 Market purchase 63% 59% 48.0% 45.4% NA 7.9% Serious Critical Acceptable Acceptable Crisis Crisis purchase

5.7. Urban and IDP Survey Data Collection Points Zone Region Towns Livelihood Data collection type North SlSh Awdal Borama, Baki, Zeylac Urban HH Survey North SlSh W.Galbeed Hargeisa, Berbera, Gabiley Urban HH Survey North SlSh Togdheer Burco, Odweyne, Sheekh Urban HH Survey North SoSh Sanaag Erigabo, Taleex, CeelAfweyn, Xuddun Urban HH Survey North SoSh Sool Lasanaod, Caynabo, Badhan Urban HH Survey North SoSh Bari Bossaso, Qardho, Iskushuban, Bandarbeyla Urban HH Survey North SoSh Nugaal Garowe, Dangorayo, Eyl Urban HH Survey North SoSh/Central Mudug Galkayo, Galdogob, Jarriban, Burtinle, Hobyo, Harardhere Urban HH Survey/Rapid FGD Assessment Central Galgaduud Adado, Dhusamareb, Abudwaq, Eldher Urban Rapid FGD Assessment/Teleconferencing South Hiran Beledweyne, Buloburte, Jalalaqsi Urban Rapid FGD Assessment/Teleconferencing South Middle Shabelle Jowhar, Adale, Balad Urban Rapid FGD Assessment/Teleconferencing South Lower Shabelle Afgoye, Wanlaweyn, Qoriyoley, Marka Urban Rapid FGD Assessment/Teleconferencing South Middle Juba Buale, Jilib, Sakow Urban Rapid FGD Assessment/Teleconferencing South Lower Juba Kismayo, Afmadow, Jamame Urban Rapid FGD Assessment/Teleconferencing South Gedo Bardhere, Luq, Beledhawa Urban Rapid FGD Assessment/Teleconferencing South Bay Baidoa, Qansahdhere, Dinsor Urban Rapid FGD Assessment/Teleconferencing South Bakool Hudur, Wajid, Elbarde Urban Rapid FGD Assessment/Teleconferencing Zone Region Towns Livelihood Data collection type North SlSh W.Galbeed Hargeisa and Berbera Internally Displaced People (IDP) HH Survey North SlSh Togdheer Burco Internally Displaced People (IDP) HH Survey North SoSh Bari Bossaso and Qardho Internally Displaced People (IDP) HH Survey North SoSh Nugaal Garowe Internally Displaced People (IDP) HH Survey North SoSh Mudug Galkayo Internally Displaced People (IDP) HH Survey Central Galgaduud Dhusamareb and Abudwaq Internally Displaced People (IDP) Rapid FGD Assessment/Teleconferencing South Hiran Beledweyne Internally Displaced People (IDP) Rapid FGD Assessment/Teleconferencing South Middle Shabelle Jowhar Internally Displaced People (IDP) Rapid FGD Assessment/Teleconferencing South Gedo Beledhawa Internally Displaced People (IDP) Rapid FGD Assessment/Teleconferencing South Bay Baidoa Internally Displaced People (IDP) Rapid FGD Assessment/Teleconferencing FactorsthatdeterminedtheIPC 5.8.1 GedoRegionLivelihoodZones 5.8 FactorsthatDeterminedtheJuly-ecember2013IPCinRuralLivelihoodsofSomalia (PET Score) July 2013 c Livestock rains projection Deyr Stability and Utilization Access, Availability, Food Indicators Indicators

(poor, below average, ruminants) projection Herd Herd Herd ToT daily casual labor to casual daily ToT compared to Baseline compared to Baseline Nutrition status (July ‘13 (July status Nutrition Trend of debt level from level debt of Trend ToT local qu local ToT production level as % of Dec ’ Dec till Projected humanitarian opportunities expected CMB change (% change change Jan change Jan average) ruminants) supp months) and change from Dec Gu from Jan to Ju Jan from Availabili average to above last Deyr last Milk production Mortality (Jul ‘13) (Jul Mortality ’13 PWA (1995 Jul ’12 Jul ’12 2013 seasonal Gu Other income siz s ort (Aug stocks (# of (# stocks normal ize trend ize cereal crop

cereals: cereals:

and l e 13

compared to ’12) t – ty of cereal – –

ondition -­‐ -­‐

rend (Dec.'12) ality goat to Jul ‘13 and Jul ‘13 and July 2 July and l Jul ‘13 Jul Jul ‘13 Jul evels Jan

Gu -­‐ Dec'13) ne

-­‐

2012)

(small (small (small (small -­‐ evels '13) J 013

un

Positive Factors Positive Factors Slight Decrease Near norma Near (SoSh below normal consumption consumption requirement adequate to from Jan’13 from Borderline meet food Increasin Increas S Southern Inland Pastoral Southern Inland Pastoral Dec Average ubstantial PET 3-­‐ ↓ 2 NA

NA NA NA reased 11%

Livelihood Zone 277 -­‐ Livelihood Zone

ing 4

719)

g

l to l

phase classificationintheprojection(August-December2013)GedoLivelihoodZones

Factors Negative Baseline Baseline ‘12 Jul from Factors Negative

Below Below Decrease from Dec.’12 from

Very Critical Sustained

Positive Factors Positive Factors both periods of Sustained Near normal to normal Near Slight decrease ( below normal Increase from from Increase SoSh 2 SoSh consumption consumption requirement adequate to Increased in Increased from comparison from Jul ‘12 Jul from Borderline meet food Increasing Increasing S Decreased Average ubstantial PET 3-­‐ = CDR Jan’13 ↓ Dec.’12 Livelihood Zone Livelihood Zone NA NA NA

Dawa Pastoral Dawa Dawa Pastoral Dawa 6 1 % 98 Critical Critical 0.4

4

6

67)

Baseline Baseline Factors Negative Factors Negative Below Below

Factors Positive Near normal to normal Near Factors Positive ( of comparison Juba Pump Irrigation below normal % of 64% Juba Pump Irrigation SoSh 2 SoSh consumption consumption both periods requirement adequate to Increased in Increased ( Borderline meet food S 1995-­‐ Decreased ubstantial ↓ NA NA NA NA NA

7% Gu 083

Livelihood Zo Livelihood

Livelihood Zo Livelihood 2012)

PWA PWA 313)

comparison of both periods Decrease Factors Negative Factors Negative from normal from Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 Sustained

; South Critical North Gedo: North Gedo: 2 months 2 Sustained 3 months 3 CDR= ne ne Critical Gedo ; Riverine Riverine

0.6 in Very ↓

of

Positive Factors food consumption Positive Factors adequate to meet Increased in both Near normal to normal Near % of 147% ( below normal SoSh 2 SoSh requirement comparison ( Borderline Increasing Increasing periods of substantial 1995-­‐ Decreased Average PET 3-­‐ Southern Southern ↓ NA

7% 083

Livelihood Zone Gu Livelihood Zone 2012)

4

PWA 313)

Agropastoral

Agropastoral

Factors Negative Factors Negative from normal from ined Susta both periods Crop Failure in Critical Critical comparison Decrease in North Gedo: South Gedo: 2 months 2 Belethawo 0.89CDR= Baseline Baseline 3 months 3 and Dolo districts Serious Below Below Critical

of of

↓

from from Very

↓

of

61 Appendices

62 Appendices

Factors that determined the IPC phase classification in the projection the determined that Factors 5.8.2 JubaRegionsLivelihoodZones Indicators Indicators Indicators (% change from Jan to Access, Utilization and Utilization Access, humanitarian support r Herd size trend (small trend size Herd months) compared to Baseline (poor, below average, Herd size trend (small trend size Herd compared to Baseline production level as % ToT daily casual labor ToT local quality goat quality local ToT till (PET Score) July 2013 ‘13 and change from Availability of cereal of Availability uminants) projection average) Nutrition status (Jul status Nutrition ruminants) Deyr and Jul ’12 and Jul ’12 Livestock condition Trend of debt level of of change Jan change Jan Mortality (Jul ‘13) (Jul Mortality Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 average to above Food Availability, Availability, Food Dec ’13 Dec Milk production rains projection rains

Gu from last last from Other income opportunities (Aug (Aug ’13 Gu CMB change stocks (# of normal to cereals to cereals 2013 seasonal Projected expected Ju (Dec.'12) cereal crop Dec ’12) Stability PWA (1995 and levels 2012)

ne compared to -­‐ Dec'13) –

'13) July 2013 and levels – – Jan -­‐ -­‐ Deyr Gu Jul ‘13 ‘13 Jul ‘13 Jul

Jul ‘13 Jul ‘13 Jul

: : -­‐

Jun

-­‐

Positive Factors Positive Factors Positive Factors Lower Juba: 5% 1 2 Above baseline Serious Serious Above baseline Increased from from Increased above nor consumption consumption Middle Juba:

requirement adequate to 910 2 Decreas Increasing Increasing

Borderline meet food Normal to Normal Southern Inland Pastoral Southern Inland Pastoral 57 July 2012 Southern Inland Pastoral

Limited Limited Average 1 Critical PET 1

N/A 683 669 NA NA NA ↓ % Livelihood Zone Livelihood Zone

Livelihood Zone

↑

↓

4

from from SoS SoS ing mal

; ;

h h

Factors Negative Factors Negative Factors Negative from Jan ’13 Jan from Decreased

Factors Positive Factors Positive Factors Positive from July 2012 above normal consumption consumption from from Middle Juba: requirement adequate to Lower Juba: Substantial Decreasing

Borderline meet food Increasing Increasing 1 2

Serious Serious Increased Normal to Normal

1 Average 910 2 PET 5% SoS SoS 1 South East pastoral South East pastoral N/A South East pastoral 57 NA NA % Critical Critical Livelihood Zone Livelihood Zone Livelihood Zone

↓ h h 683 669 ↓

4

↑

period

Factors Negative Factors Negative Factors Negative from Jan ’13 Jan from (August Decreased Baseline Baseline Below Below -­‐-­‐

-­‐ December 2013) December

Positive Factors Positive Factors Positive Factors Middle Juba:

M/J 3 Slight Slight Normal to above L/J Offseason crops crops Offseason and agricultural Lower Juba: 5% 1 2 both periods of months (Jul months consumption consumption

requirement adequate to 910 2 comparison Decreasing Dec ’13) Borderline meet food uba uba 57 Gu Gu normal labour. normal

in

N/A N/A N/A N/A

683 669

: Livelihood Zone Livelihood Zone ↓ ↓ Livelihood Zone N/A PWA PWA : 1 174% crease in

Juba riverine Juba riverine Juba riverine

08% of

SoS SoS as

1

1

of of h h

%

-­‐

Factors Negative Factors Negative Factors Negative ↑ from from Limited Limited

C C ritical ritical ritical N/A N/A

-­‐-­‐

V

ery ery

Positive Factors Positive Factors Positive Factors SAP Increasing Increasing Lower Juba: 5% food consumption months adequate to meet Middle Juba: Increased in both Increased in both

L SAP Normal to above in 1 2 SAP /

J L requirement comparison; comparison; crease in both comparison from from 910 2 : 2 Decreasing uba L / Borderline periods of periods of periods of

57 : 107 :

/ J

Limited Limited n normal : uba J -­‐ Average PET 3 uba PWA ormal Increased

N/A SAP AP LZs LZs 683 669 NA

Juba A Juba A Juba A ↓ ↓ Livel Livel Livel SAP & L SAP & L SAP SAP & L SAP months Jul

% for both for for both for AP

normal AP

: Slight Slight :

4 SoS SoS

‘ of of

1

ihood Zone ihood Zone ihood Zone :

1 2 :

2

Gu g g g 1

h h

ropastoral ropastoral ropastoral ↓ as % / / /

J J J

uba uba uba

Factors Negative Gu AP Factors Negative Factors Negative from from

L Baseline for Baseline AP) AP) AP) ↑ Decreased / from from both both J :70%

s s s Critical C PWA uba Below Below : : : SAP

ritical

Jan -­‐-­‐

LZs LZs V

of of : for for ery ery ‘12

5.8.3 BayandBakoolRegionsLivelihoodZones Indicators Access, Utilization and (% change from Jan to (poor, below average, humanitarian support rum Herd s Herd months) compared to Baseline compared to Baseline ToT daily casual labor production level as % ToT local quality goat (PET Score) July 2013 till ‘13 and change from averag Availability of cereal Nutrition status (Jul status Nutrition ruminants) ruminants) 2013 seasonal Deyr and Jul ’12 Jul and and Jul ’12 Jul and Livestock c Livestock Trend of debt level change Jan change Jan of Guof Mortality (Jul ‘13) Mortality average above to Food Availability, Milk production Dec rains projection rains Gu from last from Other income Other income ’13 opportunities inants) projection (Aug CMB change size stocks (# of normal to cereals: to cereals: Projected expected Ju (Dec.'12) ize trend cereal crop cereal Dec ’12) Stability

PWA (1995-­‐ e) – e) and l ’13 2012)

ne compared to -­‐ trend Dec'13)

July 2013 July and l '13) ondition – – evels Jan -­‐ -­‐ Deyr Gu Jul ‘13 ‘13 Jul Jul ‘13 ‘13 Jul Jul ‘13 Jul ‘13

(small (small (small (small -­‐

evels Jun

Positive Factors ( both periods of both periods of 1 710 SoSh) 344 N below normal consumption requirement ade Increased in Increased in ear normal to comparison comparison Southern Inland Pastoral S Decreasing Borderline meet food Increasing Increasing CDR=0.27 ubstantial Average PET PET ↓2 quate to NA NA NA Livelihood Zone

0 3 %

-­‐ 4

Factors Negative Sustained Baseline Baseline Critical Below Below Very Very

Positive Factors adequate to adequate meet ( Bay 93% of Gu 93% (Jul 1 527 SoSh) 813 Near normal to Increased from from Increased from Increased Critical below normal consumption requirement l Critica Very S Borderline Increasing Increasing 7 months ubstantial -­‐ Average PET PET Dec ’13) normal H Jul ’12 ’12 Jul ’12 Jul ↓ food igh P NA ↑ 3

3 Livelihood Zone %

-­‐ from from

4

PWA otential Agropastoral

as

Factors Negative from Jan ’13 from Jan’13 Decreased Decreased decreased Baseline Baseline Below Below

-­‐-­‐

Positive Factors ( Critical 1 Increased from Jul from Increased food consumption adequate to adequate meet Increased in both in Increased Critical (Bay); No Critical data for Bakool (Jul Near normal to

Bay below normal 619 requirement comparison S Decreasing Borderline Increasing Increasing periods of 4 months months 4 ubstantial -­‐ Average PET PET Dec ’13) normal ↓ -­‐

078 Bako

↑ Li ’12 NA 13% from Very from Agropastoral velihood Zone

3

S -­‐ 4 ol Low potential o

Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51

S as

h)

Factors Negative

Decrease Baseline Baseline

Gu Jan ’13 Jan 93% of 93% d from d from Below Below

PWA -­‐-­‐

Positive Factors adequate to adequate meet Increased in both in Increased 106% 106% of ( 1 Near normal to In below normal consumption

requirement comparison 710 creased from S Decreasi Borderline Increasing Increasing periods of ubstantial Bakool Average PET PET ↓2 Jul ’12 ’12 Jul food Livelihood Zone 344 SoSh NA -­‐-­‐

Gu 0 3 %

-­‐ 4 PWA ng

Agropastoral

)

Factors Negative Decrease Baseline Baseline Jan ’13 Jan d from d from Below Below

-­‐-­‐ -­‐-­‐

63 Appendices

64 Appendices

5.8.4 ShabelleRegionsLivelihoodZones Factors thatdeterminedtheIPC Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 Indicators levels to compared Other income opportunities opportunities income Other Nutrition status ‘13 and status (Jul Nutrition ruminants) Jan above average) Availability of cereal stocks of cereal Availability (# of months) below average, average to change Jan change Jan Gu (% change from Jan to Jul Jan from change (% Food Availability, Access, Availability, Food ruminants) projection till Deyr Livestock Condition (PET Trend of debt from level ToT daily casual labor to ToT local quality goat to Projected humanitarian Utilization and Utilization Stability and Milk production (poor, support (Aug Herd size trend (small Herd size trend (small compared to Baseline change from Dec ’13) level as % of cereal crop production last Dec ’13 and levels Mortality (Jul ’13) (Jul Mortality Score) July 2013 2013 seasonal rains CMB change (1995 ’12 ’12 normal normal projection Deyr expected cereals: cereals:

– – -­‐ -­‐ '13) Jul ‘13 and Jul ‘13 Jul Jul ‘13 Jul ‘13 (Dec.'12) -­‐

2012) comp -­‐ Jun ’13 and

Gu – Gu -­‐ Dec'13) July 2013

and Jul and Baseline PWA PWA

ared to

Positive Factors Lower Lower 1 Near normal to Increased from Increased from Shabelle Increasing; No Increasing; No below normal 982 568 consumption 226 238 requirement adequate to adequate Decreased Borderline meet food SIP & SEP Livelihood Zones PET (3 baseline baseline Average Middle J 6 ul ‘12 ul % Shabelle ↓

↓

: SoSh -­‐ NA SoSh 0.2 4)

%

:

Factors Negative from Jan’13 Jan’13 from Decreased Restricted phase classificationintheprojection(August-December2013) NA -­‐-­‐ -­‐-­‐

Positive Factors food consumption adequate to meet adequate Increased in both (access to (access Middle 1 Near normal to (Coastal in Mogadishu) in Increasing; No Increasing; No Central Agropastoral & Coastal below normal 226 238 requirement comparison Decreased Decreased Borderline periods of Increased Increased PET (3 base baseline Average 0.2 Deeh NA Shabelle % ↓ %

line Deeh

-­‐ labour labour SoSh 4) Livelihood Zones

)

:

Factors Negativ Agropastoral) Decreased in both periods comparison Restricted In (Central (Central creased NA of of -­‐-­‐ -­‐-­‐ ,

e

Positive Factors Increased Jul from food consumption Shabelle adequate to meet adequate Slightly Increased Middle Shabelle (access to labour to (access Middle Lower Shabelle Lower Shabelle SAP: Increasing; SAP: Increasing; 85% 85% of 1 Near normal to and cash crops Agopastoral (1 Agopastoral Southern Agropastoral (SAP) in Mogadishu) Mogadishu) in below normal Agropastoral Agropastoral 226 238 requirement Riverine (10 No baseline No baseline from Jul ‘12 Jul from Riverine Livelihood Zones (4 months) Riverine (8 Decreased Borde Increased Increased months); months); months); PET (3 Gu Average month); 0.2 Middle ‘12 Shabelle PWA % ↓ % Gu :121% of

rline

-­‐ SoSh PWA 4)

&

: : :

:

Factors Negative Decreased Decreased Res from Jan Jan from Jan’13 from from ’13 t -­‐-­‐ -­‐-­‐ ricted

Factors Positive consumption requirement Near normal adequate to adequate No baseline No baseline from Jul ‘12 Jul from ‘12 Jul from Increasing; Increasing; Decreased Borderline meet food 1 (access to (access Increased Increased Increased Increased (maize) Livelihood Zone Shabelle PET (3 labour in riverine) Average Shabelle Agropastoral 0.2 226 238 Slightly Slightly Middle SoSh NA % ↓ %

-­‐ 4)

:

Factors Negative Decreased Decreased Restricted from Jan Jan from Jan’13 from from ’13 NA -­‐-­‐ -­‐-­‐

FactorsthatdeterminedtheIPCphaseclassificationinprojection(August-December2013) 5.8.5 HiranRegionLivelihoodZones ‘13) (Jul Mortality ’12) and change from Dec ‘13 (July status Nutrition expected opportunities Other income Ju change from to Jan CMB change (% (Aug humanitarian support Projected (Dec.'12) Deyr last from Trend of debt level months) stocks (# of cereal of Availability 2012) of production level as % Gu Indicators normal compared to Baseline ’ Dec till ruminants) projection Herd ’13 ruminants) Herd average) average to above (poor, below average, Milk production (PET Score) July 2013 Livestock c projection rains Deyr Stability and Utilization Access, Availability, Food Indicators compared to Baseline ToT daily casual labor ToT local quality goat quality local ToT and Jul ’12 and Jul ’12 ne change Jan cha Gu cereal crop

and l '13) 2013 seasonal -­‐ size PWA (1995

s Dec'13) nge Jan-­‐ to cereals : to cereals : ize trend ize Gu 13

ev

compared to

– trend

July 2013

ondition els els and l Jan – – -­‐

Jul ‘13 Jul Jul ‘13 ‘13 Jul Jul ‘13 Jul Jul ‘13 Jul -­‐ J

(small (small (small (small evels

-­‐ un

S NA NA Positive Factors Livelihoods Southern Inland Pastoral Critical Serious Increasing below normal to normal Near requirement food consumption adequate to meet Borderline Positive Factors Livelihoods Southern Inland Pastoral NA Average PET ubstantial ( 2

052 Increasing 3 -­‐ ↓ 4

188 ↑

3

from from %

SoSh) SoSh)

Factors Negative

Baseline Factors Negative

Below comparison comparison

= CDR Decreased Decreased Decreased Decreased periods of periods of Baseline in both in both Below

0.72

( S NA NA Positive Factors Hawd pastoral livelihoods Critical Ser Increasing below normal to normal Near requirement consumption meet food adequate to Borderline Positive Factors Hawd pastoral livelihoods NA

2 PET ubstantial

Average 052

ious Increasing

3 ↓ 188 -­‐

4

3

↑

% from from

SoSh) SoSh)

Factors Negative Baseline Factors Negative = CDR Below comparison comparison

Decreased Decreased Decreased Decreased periods of periods of Baseline in both in both Below

0.72

( S Positive Factors Riverine below normal to normal Near requirement consumption meet food adequate to B Positive Factors Riverine = CDR NA

2 ubstantial orderline

052

↓

188 0.23 NA NA NA

3

%

SoSh) SoSh)

Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51

Critical ↔ Factors Negative Factors Negative n

comparison comparison Decreased Decreased 38% of periods of periods of ormal Increased 5 months 1 month stocks stocks Very in both in both PWA PWA from

of 4

Gu

↓

-­‐

( S Positive Factors Agro pastoral In requirement consumption meet food adequate to Borderline Positive Factors Agro pastoral = CDR NA PET 2 ubstantial

Average

creasing 052 Increasing

3 ↓

-­‐ 188 0.23 4

3

%

SoSh) SoSh)

Baseline normal to below Near normal Factors Negative Critical ↔ Factors Negative from Below

Decreased Decreased comparison comparison No Decreased 38% of periods of periods of Increased Baseline

months in both in both Very Very of of Below stock PWA PWA

normal 1

-­‐ 2 Gu s

↓

65 Appendices

66 Appendices

Indicators Availability of cereal stocks (# stocks cereal of Availability Milk production (poor, below ruminants) projection till Trend of debt level from last level debt of Trend 5.8.6 CentralRegionsLivelihoodZones level as % of Gu as level levels compared to Baseline Other income opportunities Nutrition status (Jul ‘13 and (Jul status Nutrition ruminants) ’13 average, average to above change Jan change Jan Gu y, Access, Availabilit Food Deyr (CMB) change (% change Cost of Minimum basket Livestock Condition (PET of months) ToT daily casual casual daily ToT ToT local quality goat to quality local ToT Projected humanitarian Utilization and Stability and Utilization support (Aug rend (small (small trend size Herd Herd size trend (small change from Dec ’13) from Jan to June Jan from Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 cereal crop production and levels compared to Mortality (Jul ‘13) (Jul Mortality Score) July 2013 Factors thatdeterminedtheIPC 2013 seasonal rains Deyr ’12 ’12 normal projection expected

average) Baseline

cereals: cereals: 2012) (Dec.'12) – – Jan -­‐ -­‐ Jul ‘13 and Jul ‘13 Jul Jul ‘13 and Jul ‘13 Jul

Jul ‘13 Jul Jul ‘13 Jul compared to -­‐ PWA (1995 Jun ’13 Gu -­‐

Dec'13)

labor to

'13)

and Dec Dec

-­‐

Positive Factors Increasing Hawd: sustained Substantial hum meet food consumption R Borderline adequate Hawd and Addun Pastoral Livelihood Zone Near normal estricted in Galgaduud Addun: response in Mudug Hawd: ( 2 Near baseline Slight ( Slight

requirement 464 Increasing; Decrease Average PET PET S normal ; Near baseline Near ; Alert erious

= CDR 927 SoSh NA NA NA -­‐-­‐

1 3 %) ↓ %)

-­‐ to be 4 ↑

anitarian

d 0.

Serious

from from 26

phase classificationintheprojection(August-December2013)

low low )

; to to

;

Negative Factors from both perio Slight decrease

ds

Positive Factors both periods of both periods of Near normal to below normal humanitarian Slight ( Slight Coastal Restricted in Increased in Increased in comparison comparison response in Substantial Galgaduud (2 464 927 Decreased Increasing Sustained CDR=0.23 Mudug; S PET 3 SoSh) e NA NA rious rious -­‐-­‐

1 %) ↓ %) Deeh pastoral Livelihood

-­‐ 4

Zone Negative Factors Below Baseline Below baseline Below average

Inadequate to consumption consumption requirement Decreasing meet food

;

Factors Positive of comparison of comparison humanitarian Slight ( Slight consumption consumption both periods both periods requirement Restricted in Near normal from Critical from adequate to Increased in Increased in response in Substantial Galgaduud (2 464 927 Decreased Borderline meet food Increasing Increasing CDR=0.41 Improved S -­‐ Cowpea to below Average Mudug; PET 3 erious normal SoSh) -­‐-­‐

1 Livelihood Zone %) ↓ %) -­‐ 4

↑

Belt Agropastoral

Factors Negative 1 normal (2 2 000 Mt, -­‐ months) baseline baseline 2 months; 2 average ↓ Below Below Below from

-­‐

3 5.8.7 NortheastRegionsLivelihoodZones 5.8.8 NorthwestRegionsLivelihoodZones

projection Cost of Minimum basket Herd Gu Livestock Condition (PET Sco Nutrition status (Jul ‘13 and change from and ‘13 (Jul status Nutrition Mortality Mortality from June ’12) change and ‘13 (Jul status Nutrition Other opportunities income expected to Jan Cost Minimum of (CMB) chan basket Projected humanitarian support (Aug from last level debt of Trend normal Availability of cereal stocks (# of months) C and levels compared to Baseline projection till ruminants) (small trend size Herd co Herd size trend ruminants) (small change Jan ToT local quality goat to cereals change Jan ToT daily average) Milk production (poor, below average, average to above Livestock Condition (PET Score) July 2013 Deyr and Stability Utilization Access, Availability, Food Indicators Food Availability, Access, Utilization and Projected humanitarian support (Aug change Jan change Jan Milk production (poor, below average, average to above average) Other income opportunities expected ereal production crop level as % of ’13 / Deyr mpared to Baseline Trend of debt level from last Herd Herd Availability of cereal stocks (# of stocks cereal of Availability months) K ToT daily casual labor to cereals ToT local quality goat to cereals change from Dec 12 size aran 2013 seasonal rains projection % of %

and l

2013 seasonal rains projection June

Gu s trend cereal crop production level as till ize ize Factors thatdeterminedtheIPC G – casual labor to cereals evels compared to Baselin ( Mortality (Jul ‘13 (Jul Mortality u July 2013 July

-­‐ -­‐ June ’13)

Dec Dec -­‐ -­‐ '13) compared to normal compared to Jul ‘13 ‘13 Jul ‘13 Jul

trend Jul ‘13 and Jul ’12 and ‘13 Jul ‘13 Jul crop to Baseline (small ruminants) ruminants) (small Indicators Indicators June ’12) (Dec.'12) Stability Dec'13) ’

13 PET (2010 (small ruminants) ruminants) (small and Jul ’12 and Jul ’12

and l and

change (CMB) (%

to June '13)

evels compared

Jul Jul re) July 2013 – ) -­‐

2012) July 2013 ’ 12 – – De Jul ‘13 Jul ‘13 Jul Deyr Jan

Gu – – yr

: Jul ‘13 Jul ‘13 Jul : : :

-­‐

e

J

(Dec.'12)

Jan

un -­‐

PWA ge (% change from -­‐

-­‐ Jun ’13 and levels

Dec'13) Positive Factors EastGolis WestGolis/ Sool Plateau: valley: Nugal Hawd: Positive Factors food consumption requirement Near normal Borderline adequate EastGolis sustained sustained EastGolis

(1995 West Hawd, Nugal Valley, Sool Plateau, WestGolis/Guban and Hawd, Nugal Valley, Sool Plateau, WestGolis/Guban and

Increasing; N Increasing; N Increasing; frankincense in EastGolis compared to Hawd, Nugal valley and

↓ Increased income from Increased from Jul ’12 Jul from Increased ↓

5 CDR

8 % ( % Golis : C Dec ’13 % ( % -­‐ 2012) Substantial Decreasing

DR= Guban 3 PET = 0.26; Average 708 C

CDR : 148 CDR ritical; ritical; rains to normal below

NA NA S -­‐-­‐ 0.16 erious

3

ear baseline ear baseline 838

= 115 -­‐ = :

4 Pastoral Livelihood Zones: Pastoral Livelihood CDR=

0.04; 0.03;

Sl

SoSh

S

↑ Sh to meet erious

Positive Factors 0.07;

from from phase classificationintheprojection(August-Dec13) );

Increased income from frankincense in EastGolis Borderline adequate Hawd, Nugal valley and Coastal )

EastGolis EastGolis

;

Increased

Alert Sool Negative Factors -­‐-­‐ ( -­‐-­‐ -­‐-­‐ Negative Factors Hawd, Addun, Nugal Valley, Sool Plateau, EastGolis/Karkar and Costal -­‐-­‐ -­‐-­‐ -­‐-­‐ -­‐-­‐ Decreased from Jan ‘13 Poor in Guban -­‐-­‐ -­‐-­‐ from USD 290

Near normal normal Near

Increasing in Sool Plateau Sool in Increasing Increasing and Near Baseline Addun Addun and fishing in Coastal Zones: P

↓ 5% (3 5% ↓ lateau in both periods of comparison

Alert

requirem Substantial Decreasing : Increasing

Serious Average S PET to to meet food consumption

erious 238 115

to below normal NA N NA ↑

-­‐-­‐ USD 320

A

3 from S from

-­‐

4

↓ ent ;

from from

SoSh)

) erious

Deeh Deeh Pastoral Livelihood Zones

CDR= Positive Factors Positive Factors food consumption requirement this time (crop establishment) z sustained

; Borderline adequate ero stocks which is normal at Increased in both periods of Increased

Near normal rains normal Near

Increasing; N Increasing; N Increasing;

0.18 Alert ↓8% (708 ↓8% market dependent

comparison comparison Substantial Decreasing Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51

↑ in both periods of Average normal

PET from from

-­‐-­‐

ear baseline ear baseline

838 SlSh) 3 Agropastoral Agropastoral S

Negative Factors

erious

to below to

to meet Coastal Sool plateau EastGolis EastGolis

Below average in Nugal valley

Sool Plateau , Deeh

Livelihood Zone Livelihood Zone Negative Factors (2010 Below average: 70% of PET Negative Factors Critical Critical

: Serious Baseline

Increasing but Below -­‐ NA NA NA 2012) -­‐-­‐ -­‐-­‐ -­‐-­‐ -­‐-­‐ -­‐-­‐

:

↓ Increasing

↓ from Serious

Deeh from Alert; from

67 Appendices

68 AppendicesAppendices

ost Gu Post 5.9 and Garowe) Regional analysismeetings(Hargeisa Fieldwork Regional planningworkshops FSNAU partnerplanningmeeting Series report Release ofFoodSecurity Technical report Release ofNutrition Technical Series Technical Release Somalia to thehumanitariancommunityof Post-Gu 2013presentationoffindings Release ofResults Regional Governments to theFederalGovernmentand Post-Gu 2013presentationoffindings Vetting ofIPCresultswithpartners partners Vetting ofnutritionresultswith TeamAll workshop Analysis Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 2013 Assessment/Analysis/Reporting T 2013 Assessment/Analysis/Reporting Activity Jul 29- Aug 4,2013 Jun-Jul, 2013 Jul 8-10,2013 Jun 10,2013 Sep xx,2013 Sep xx,2013 Sep 3,2013 Sep 2,2013 Sep 1,2013 Aug 28,2013 Aug 26,2013 Aug 12-23,2013 Date imeline Deliverables: to insecurity. and keyinformantsintheareaswithlimitedaccessdue the countrywithsupportfrompartners,enumerators Somalia; cropandlivestockassessmentsthroughout Mogadishu; rapidurbanassesmentsinsouthern country; urbanrepresentativehouseholdsurveyin IDP representativehouseholdsurveysacrossthe planning meetingswereheldinvariousregions/districts conducted Central-South,howeverassessment due tosecurity, planningworkshopscouldnotbe Regional planningworkshopsinGaroweandHargeisa composition andlogisticalarrangements(Nairobi). Finalisation ofassessmentinstruments,team FSNAU websiteandemaildistribution FSNAU websiteandemaildistribution FSNAU TechnicalRelease Final presentation,Nairobi Mogadishu; Garowe;Hargeisa FSNAU withprimarytechnicalpartners,Nairobi FSNAU withprimarytechnicalpartners,Nairobi All Team (FSNAUandPartners),Hargeisa Regionalarticlesforoutlook Regionalassessmentphotos • Actualsamplesizeversusplanned(table) • Ipcanalysisworksheets • Filledoutelectronicforms • Hardcopiesofassessmentquestionnaires • • Description/Location National EnvironmentResearchandDrought(NERAD)-1 Concern Worldwide-1 Food SecurityCluster-1 FEWS NET-1 UNOCHA –2 EC-1 Partners whoParticipatedattheworkshop TOTAL- (MinusFocalPoints)-101 Total-116 Focal Points-15 Enumerators-19 National Institutions-4 Local Authority-14 Ministries-14 INGO-6 LNGO-31 Technical Partners-3(FEWSNET) UNOCHA-5 WFP-5 Number ofpeoplewhoparticipatedinFoodSecurityFieldworkandRegional data collection,logisticalsupportandanalysis. FSNAU would like to thank all the agencies that participated and made this assessment possible. Our partners assisted with P of List 5.10 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Government FocalPointsuntland 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Government Ministries’andLocal Authorities Region Northwest Hiran Middle Juba Lower Juba Middle Shabelle Lower Shabelle Bakool Gedo Northeast Bay Central Region Total Ministry of Agriculture Puntland(MOA) Ministry ofInteriorandRuralDevelopmentPuntland(MOI) Ministry ofEnvironment,Wildlifeand Tourism Puntland(MOEWT) Ministry ofHealthPuntland(MOH) Ministry ofPlanningInternationalCollaborationPuntland(MOPIC) Puntland State Agency forWater, EnergyandNaturalResource(PSAWEN) Ministry ofLivestockPuntland Ministry ofEnvironment,Wildlifeand Tourism Puntland(MOEWT) Ministry ofWomen DevelopmentandFamily Affairs Puntland(MOWDAFA) Ministry ofInteriorPuntland(MOI) Ministry of Agriculture andIrrigation Ministry ofLaborSomaliland Ministry ofPlanning&NationalDevelopmentSomaliland Ministry ofEnvironment&PastoralDevelopment Ministry ofLivestockSomaliland Ministry ofFisheriesSomaliland Ministry of Agriculture Somaliland(MOA) S Food the in Participated who artners Institutions National 2 2 4 Partners Technical 1 1 1 3 LNGO 31 5 3 2 5 4 5 2 5 INGO ecurity P ecurity 2 2 1 1 6 Ministries ost Gu ost 14 9 5 2013 Overall T 2013 Overall UN Analysis: 10 1 3 1 1 4 Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 Enumerators 19 5 7 4 3 imeline Assessment imeline Authority Local 14 14 Points Focal 15 8 7

69 Appendices

70 Appendices

1. FamineEarlyWarning SystemsNetwork(FEWSNET) T National EnvironmentResearchandDrought(NERAD) Humanitarian Aid Disaster Management Agency (HADMA) National Institutions Office fortheCoordinationofHumanitarian Affairs (OCHA) World FoodProgramme(WFP) UN Organizations Norwegian RefugeeCommittee Norwegian Church Aid (NCA) Oxfam GB INGO’S 26. YADA SomaliRedcrescentsociety(SRCS) 25. 24. JubaLightOrganization organization (SORDES) Somalireliefanddevelopment 23. Solidarities 22. 21. forSmallEnterpriseProgram(ASEP) Advancement 20. 19. 18. 17. 16. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. LNGO’S 2. 1. National InstitutionsFocalPoints 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Government FocalPointsSomaliland List of P of List 5.10 continued echnical Partners Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 Doloow FarmingCooperativeSociety(FCS) Rural andEnvironmentalDevelopmentOrganization(REDO) Development Action Network(DAN) Dalsan DevelopmentandReliefOrganization(DDRO) Save theChildrenInternational(SCI) Onkod ReliefandDevelopmentOrganization(ORDO) Bay Women Development Network(BWDN) Daryeel Awareness anDevelopmentOrganization(DAADO) Somali Youth forPeaceandDemocracy(SYPD) African DevelopmentSolution(ADESO) Somali Aid foundation(SAF) Wamo relief&rehabilitationServices(WRRS) Juba developmentorganization(JDO) Somali lifelineorganization(SOLO) Agency forpeaceanddevelopment(APD) Somtrag Candle Light Horn of Africa TAAKULO Horn of Africa Volunteer Youth Organization(HAVOYOCO) Humanitarian Aid DisasterManagement Agency (HADMA) National EnvironmentResearchandDrought(NERAD) Ministry ofWater andMineralResources Ministry ofLaborandSocial Affairs Ministry ofPlanningandNationalDevelopment Ministry ofLivestockSomaliland Ministry ofFisherySomaliland Ministry ofHealthSomaliland Ministry of Agriculture Somaliland articipated in the Food S Food the in Participated who artners ecurity P ecurity ost Gu ost 2013 Overall T 2013 Overall Issued September 24, 2012 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VI44 imeline Assessment Assessment imeline 5.11 Post Gu 2013 Food Security Seasonal Assessment Field Access, Sampling and Reliability of Data

Household Interviews and Reliability rank Region Access Data Collection FGDs Confidence Level Planned Actual

Northeast Normal access FSNAU with partners 860 813 R=1

Northwest Normal access FSNAU with partners 1268 1473 R=1

Normal access (Hobyo, part of Harardhere, FSNAU with partners R=1 Dhusamareb and Abudwaq) Central 1105 931 No access (part of Harardhere, El-bur and Eldher) Enumerators/key informants with FSNAU teleconferencing R=2

No access except Belet-wein and Matabaan Enumerators with FSNAU teleconferencing and limited access Hiran 86 86 R= 2 districts around Belet-weyn a nd Matabaan districts FSNAU with partners

M. Shabelle No access Enumerators with FSNAU teleconferencing 70 74 R=3

L. Shabelle No access Enumerators with FSNAU teleconferencing 126 116 R=3

Bay No access except Baidoa district Enumerators with FSNAU teleconferencing 420 384 R=3

Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51 Bakool No access Enumerators with FSNAU teleconferencing 86 82 R=3 Enumerators with FSNAU teleconferencing and field Gedo No access observation of rural areas of north Gedo FSNAU with some 96 106 R=3 partners No access except rural areas of north Gedo (Dolow, M. Juba Enumerators with FSNAU teleconferencing 76 78 R=2 Luuq and Belet-Hawa Enumerators with FSNAU teleconferencing and limited access L. Juba No access except parts of Afmadow 571 351 R=3 rural areas of Afmadow district only FSNAU

Banadir Normal access FSNAU/WFP 1116 625 R=1

71 Appendices

72 Appendices

Map 13:LivelihoodZonesofSomalia Issued October 18,2013 FSNAU Technical SeriesReport No.VII51

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The Information Management Process

Gathering & processing • FSNAU has a unique network of 32 specialists all over Somalia, who assess the food security and nutrition situation regularly and 120 enumerators throughout the country, who provide a rich source of information to ensure a good coverage of data. • Food security information is gathered through rapid assessments as well as monthly monitoring of market prices, climate, crop and livestock situations. • Baseline livelihood analysis is conducted using an expanded Household Economy Approach (HEA). • The Integrated Database System (IDS), an online repository on FSNAU’s official website www.fsnau.org, provides a web- based user interface for data query, data import and export facilities from and into MS Excel, graphing, spreadsheet management and edit functions. • Nutrition data is processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS), EPInfo/ENA and STATA software for meta-analysis. • FSNAU developed the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC), a set of protocols for consolidating and summarizing situational analysis. The mapping tool provides a common classification system for food security that draws from the strengths of existing classification systems and integrates them with supporting tools for analysis and communication of food insecurity.

Validation of Analysis • Quality control of nutrition data is done using the automated plausibility checks function in ENA software. The parameters tested include; missing/flagged data, age distribution, kurtosis, digit preference, skewness and overall sex ratio. • Quality control of food security data is done through exploratory and trend analysis of the different variables including checks for completeness/missing data, market price consistency, seasonal and pattern trends, ground truthing and triangulation of data with staff and other partner agencies, and secondary data such as satelitte imagery, international market prices, FSNAU baseline data, etc. • Before the launch of the biannual seasonal assessment results (Gu and Deyr), two separate day-long vetting meetings are held comprising of major technical organizations and agencies in Somalia’s Food Security and Nutrition clusters. The team critically reviews the analysis presented by FSNAU and challenges the overall analysis where necessary. This is an opportunity to share the detailed analysis, which is often not possible during shorter presentations or in the briefs.

Products and Dissemination • A broad range of FSNAU information products include, monthly, quarterly and biannual reports on food and livelihood insecurity, markets, climate and nutrition, which are distributed both in print and digital formats including PowerPoint presentations and downloadable file available on the FSNAU site. • Feedback meetings with key audiences enable us to evaluate the effectiveness of our information products. We constantly refine our information to make sure it is easily understandable to our different audiences. • FSNAU has also developed a three year integrated communication strategy to ensure that its information products are made available in ways appropriate to different audiences including, donors, aid and development agencies, the media, Somalia authorities and the general public.

United Nations Somalia, Ngecha Road Campus Box 1230, Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Tel: +254-(0)20-4000000/500, Cell: +254-(0)722202146 / (0)733-616881 Fax: +254-20-4000555 Email: [email protected] Website: www.fsnau.org