Trends and Determinants of Food Consumption Patterns in West Africa
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TRENDS AND DETERMINANTS OF FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS IN WEST AFRICA By Nathalie Mongue Me-Nsope A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics – Doctor of Philosophy 2014 ABSTRACT TRENDS AND DETERMINANTS OF FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS IN WEST AFRICA By Nathalie Mongue Me-Nsope This dissertation examines food consumption patterns in the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS). The study provides detailed information on food demand parameters, which are critical to improving policymakers’ ability to make sound food policy decisions. Chapter 2 analyzes per capita food availability data from FAO’s food balance sheet (FBS) from 1980 through 2009. It identifies major contributors to diets and documents shifts in levels and composition of food supply at the country level. The analysis reveals: 1) a trend towards greater per capita calorie supplies for most countries; 2) a diversification in the composition of food supply; 3) a cassava revolution in some Coastal Non-Sahelian countries; 4) some diet upgrading in terms of protein availability; and 5) growth in daily fat supply per capita for most countries. Chapter 3 estimates the effects of urbanization and gross domestic product per capita on starchy staples (SS) demand in Senegal, Mali and Benin using an Error-Corrected Linearized Almost Ideal Demand System. Short-run and long run-elasticities are estimated using per capita food availability data obtained from FAO’s FBS and supplementary data. Support for a statistical association between urbanization and SS demand is found only in the case of millet in Mali. The results suggest mixed evidence on the effect of relative prices on SS demand and on substitution between coarse grains and rice. Evidence also supports more expenditure-elastic demand for millet and sorghum than for rice in Senegal and Mali, contrary to conventional expectations. Aggregate-level analysis of food demand ignores the effects of the distribution of income and of differences in food supply across regions on food demand. As a result, Chapter 4 uses Mali’s 2006 household budget survey data to estimate a censored Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System model for cereals in Mali. Cereals demand parameters are estimated by rural/ urban location and by income group. All expenditure elasticities were positive, as expected. Uncompensated own-price elasticities also support downward-sloping demand curves for all cereals. The results suggest high substitution between rice and coarse grains in both the rural and the urban areas and across income groups. Chapter 5 measures the welfare effects of cereals price shocks observed from 2008 to 2011 by means of a proportional compensating variation that allows for second-order demand responses to cereal price changes. Across all income groups and place of residence, the full effect is only slightly lower than the first-order effect. This reflects the fact that during this period all cereals prices were rising sharply, limiting the scope for substitution to “cheaper” cereals. Without considering the possibility of producer supply response in the rural areas, the magnitude of the welfare loss was higher for rural households than urban households. In both the rural and the urban areas, the welfare loss from observed price changes, in terms of relative share of income affected, was greater for poorer households than richer households from 2008 to 2011. However, the absolute income loss was greater for the higher income groups. The findings present a scope to encourage ongoing diversification of staple food sources to give consumers more opportunity for substitution and choice. Price transmission across cereals suggests a need for a cereals policy rather than just, for example, a rice policy. The results suggest strong future growth in demand (pressure on prices if supply is not increased), and a need to focus on driving down unit costs throughout the food system. To My God who makes all things possible! Unless the Lord builds the house, They labor in vain who build it; Unless the Lord guards the city, The watchman stays awake in vain. (Psalms 127:1) iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am greatly indebted to my major professor and dissertation supervisor, Dr. John Staatz, for his guidance and encouragement during this dissertation process. I also wish to express my gratitude to my other committee members, Dr. Robert Myers, Dr. Songqing Jin, and Dr. Kimberly Chung for their useful feedback. I acknowledge the work of FAO for making available to researchers the FBS data upon which a part of this dissertation is based. Many thanks to Dr. Nango Dembele and Dr. Boubacar Diallo for moral and academic support. Enormous thanks to Maurice Taondyandé (IITA/RESAKSS) who provided the household budget survey used in this research, and was willing to respond to data queries. My gratitude to Steve Longabaugh for encouraging me and for generating the map used in this research. I am grateful for financial support received from the Syngenta Foundation for Sustainable Agriculture through the Strengthening Regional Agricultural Integration project with MSU, under which this research took place. I also would like to thank the following AFRE faculty who supported and encouraged me throughout my stay at MSU: Drs. Scott Swinton, Roy Black, Eric Crawford, Valerie Kelly, Colletta Moser, Cynthia Donovan and Veronique Theriault. Special thanks to Debbie Conway for moral support and for always making things easier. A special thanks to my colleagues and friends, Ramziath Adjao, Helder Zavale, Berthe Abdrahamane, Milu Muyanga, Jordan Chamberlin, Mukumbi Kudzai, and Vivek Pandey, who were always available to share their knowledge and expertise, and whose friendship was a source of strength throughout this process. Heartfelt thanks to my son, Karsten for cheering me along the way; to my mom–for all the sacrifices of love; and to my siblings, nieces and nephew. I thank my A/G church family and childhood friends for the love and prayers. Many thanks to Patricia Johannes for editing and formatting this work. v TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF FIGURES .....................................................................................................................xv KEY TO ABBREVIATIONS...................................................................................................xvii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................1 1.1. Issue and Background ......................................................................................................1 1.2. Problem Statement ...........................................................................................................4 1.3. Research Objectives .........................................................................................................7 1.4. Literature Review and Research Gap ............................................................................7 1.5. Research Contributions .................................................................................................10 CHAPTER 2. TRENDS IN PER CAPITA FOOD AVAILABILITY IN WEST AFRICA .14 2.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................14 2.2. Objectives and Hypotheses ............................................................................................14 2.3. Data and Reliability of Food Balance Sheet Consumption Estimates .......................15 2.4. Methodological Approach .............................................................................................20 2.5. Findings ...........................................................................................................................21 2.5.1. Determinants of Food Consumption Patterns ...................................................21 2.5.1.1. Population ...............................................................................................21 2.5.1.2. Urbanization ...........................................................................................23 2.5.1.3. Economic Growth ...................................................................................24 2.5.2. Trends in Per Capita Food Availability .............................................................25 2.5.2.1. Trends in Daily Food Energy Availability (kcal/capita).....................25 2.5.2.2. Trends in the Composition of Per Capita Food Availability by Major Food Group.................................................................................30 2.5.2.2.1. Non-Coastal Sahel..................................................................31 2.5.2.2.2. Coastal Non-Sahel..................................................................32 2.5.2.2.3. Coastal Sahel...........................................................................33 2.5.2.3. Trends in the Availability of Major Starchy Staple Types (kg/capita/year).......................................................................................34 2.5.2.3.1. Major Starchy Staples Availability in the Non- Coastal Sahel..........................................................................35 2.5.2.3.2. Major Starchy Staples Availability in the Coastal Sahel....37 2.5.2.3.3. Major Starchy Staples Availability