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International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues ISSN: 2146-4138 available at http: www.econjournals.com International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2015, 5(Special Issue) 1-7. Economics and Society in the Era of Technological Changes and Globalization Management of the Economic Capacity of the Region on the Basis of Foresight (on the Example of Adygea, Russia) Elena Nikolaevna Zakharova1*, Elena Evgenyevna Kardava2, Rita Rafaelovna Avanesova3, Elena Petrovna Avramenko4 1Adyghe State University, Maikop, Russia, 2Branch Adygeya State University, ul. 8 Marta, 57/1, Belorechensk, 352630, Russia, Krasnodar Region, 352630, 3Branch Adygeya State University, Belorechensk Street, Krasnodar Region, Belorechensk, 352630, Russia, 4Branch Adygeya State University, Belorechensk Street, Krasnodar Region, Belorechensk, 352630, Russia. *Email: [email protected] ABSTRACT In connection with the aggravation of crisis phenomena in the economy of Russia caused by the events in Ukraine, the sanctions of the west, oil prices reduction and a decline in the ruble, a new approach to strategic planning is required. Foresight technology is the most appropriate one. The purpose of this article is to give a brief description of the foresight as a technology of foreseeing and identifying the most promising points of regional capacity, aimed at improving the competitiveness on the example of a particular region of the Russian Federation – the Republic of Adygea. The authors note that conducting the regional foresight project must be preceded by an analysis of economic, natural, innovative, and information-technological capacity of the region. The article reviews the methods for foresight, gives the characteristics of natural, economic, innovation and information- technological capacity of the Republic of Adygea. In the article the development problems of the region, uncertainty factors and trends of socio-economic changes in the republic have been identified. The implementation of the foresight project will allow to form the basis for social partnership of government, business and social community in order to better exploit opportunities and the implementation of the economic capacity of the region. Keywords: Foresight, Forecasting, Anticipation, Socio-economic Development, Regional Capacity, Long-term Strategy, Uncertainty JEL Classifications: D81, O18 1. INTRODUCTION the current regions capacity and identification of breakthrough areas in which a real socio-economic impact can be achieved Expanding opportunities of the strategic development of Russian (Galieva and Zhilina, 2015; Efimov et al., 2013). regions is a prerequisite for the formation of a competitive economy of the country. Leadership position of the subjects of Regional policy should be based on understanding of long-term the Russian Federation are determined by their ability to actively trends in development of social, economic and technological integrate in the development processes, corresponding to the phase capacity of the territory. The foresight technology is one of the of formation of post-industrial society, as well as by the ability most effective technologies with such opportunities, that allows to produce new promising activities, consumption formats and to anticipate the possible development processes in the long- lifestyles. term (Krasnopolskaya and Mersiyanova, 2014; Zakharova and Avramenko, 2012). In today’s economy the strategic decision-making takes place in an uncertain and challenging macroeconomic conditions and, International companies use foresight studies in order to identify therefore, requires new practical approaches to the assessment of the future corporate strategy. The foresight methodology is International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues | Vol 5 • Special Issue • 2015 1 Zakharova, et al.: Management of the Economic Capacity of the Region on the Basis of Foresight (on the Example of Adygea, Russia) used in the regional development in order to prepare long-term • Anticipation of the future. Identification of the underlying regional concepts and identify promising directions of the region trends in socio-economic development of the region. The development. In addition, the foresight studies are recommended foresight is aimed at identifying different long-term scenarios by the European Commission as a tool for promoting long-term for the future, including zones of inevitable, possible and thinking (Efimov and Lapteva, 2010). impossible future. • Management of the future. The harmonization of views of key An overall goal of the regional foresight is to make a valuable stakeholders on possible options for the future, selection of the contribution to the strategy and development plans of the regions, most promising scenario, combination of strategic objectives municipalities, communities, as well as mobilize collective and co-organization of the efforts of all stakeholders, the strategic actions (Kalyuzhnova and Verkhoturova, 2013; formation of a broad coalition for the future. Zakharova and Avramenko, 2010). The systematic use of the • Routing of the future. Development of the “road map” of the regional foresight and related approaches in the public and private future, which presents future targets of the desired future, sector is becoming increasingly important, as the regions play a “points” of changes in the public discourse, priorities and tasks critical role in creating a unified research environment in Russia. that need to be solved, the necessary administrative decisions, targeted research and developments. The road map allows Theoretical and methodological aspects and problems of practical making key changes providing the possibility for movement application of the foresight technology in the development of long- into the desired future. term development strategies of Russian regions were considered in the works of Sokolov, Tretyak, Kalyuzhnaya, Ageev, Voronov, The totality of foresight methods can be structured around three Kovalchuk, and other authors. At the same time, it should be stated categories. The first category includes qualitative methods. They that when carrying out foresight studies more or less standard are often used to represent the meaning of events and observations. sequence of actions is not sufficiently reflected in the literature Such interpretations are usually based on certain attitudes, beliefs (Tretyak, 2008). and knowledge that are quite difficult to track, because the methods give a great scope for creative and subjective thinking. This In this regard, the analysis of the practice and methodology of category also includes such methods as retrospective analysis, foresight, determination of possibilities of applying the foresight brainstorming, expert panels, futures workshops, simulation technology for development of long-term strategies of the region games, interviews, literature review, morphological analysis; development acquire a particular relevance. questionnaires and surveys; SWOT analysis (Mikova and Sokolov, 2014). The purpose of this article is to give a brief description to the foresight as a technology of anticipation and identification of the The second category consists of semi-quantitative methods most promising points in the regional capacity development aimed based on the use of mathematical calculations, for example, for at improving the competitiveness on the example of a particular a quantitative assessment of expert opinion. The database of the region of the Russian Federation – the Republic of Adygea. foresight study includes several methods: Structural analysis, Delphi-survey; key/critical technologies; multi-criteria analysis; 2. METHODOLOGY quantitative scenarios (statutory minimum wage index), mapping technologies for road mapping. Foresight as a special practice of the future planning has been developing since 60s of XX century, constantly expanding the The third category of foresight methods involves quantitative scope of application: Firstly, a technological foresight for large methods. They are often used for monitoring measurable variables, companies and branch ministries; then a social, regional, national and the statistical methods are used for processing and analysis foresight used for professional communities, authorities and of “fixed parameters.” These methods include modeling and governments. simulation, bibliometrics and extrapolation of trends. Foresight is a specially organized process of systematic assessment A variety of methods, the multiplicity and diversity of expert of long-term development prospects of the region with the knowledge allow to “look beyond the horizon” and/or find the participation of business, academia, public authorities and civil “gaps” – essentially new (lying outside the permitted existing society institutions. Foresight allows to estimate the possible ontologies of forecasts and models) possibilities of the future. specialization of a particular region and coordinate the projects development with key stakeholders as an inevitable part of the The set of methods used in foresight studies is chosen taking into goal achievement (European Commission, 2009). account possible resource and time restrictions, the availability of experts of the required qualification, an access to information The foresight methodology allows to predict, and, in some sources, etc. cases, form the future, taking into account all possible changes in such spheres as: Science and technology, economics, public The foresight process is considered as the interaction
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