Stability in Russia's Chechnya and Other Regions of the North Caucasus: Recent Developments
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Stability in Russia’s Chechnya and Other Regions of the North Caucasus: Recent Developments Jim Nichol Specialist in Russian and Eurasian Affairs December 13, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RL34613 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Stability in Russia’s Chechnya and Other Regions of the North Caucasus Summary Terrorist attacks in Russia’s North Caucasus—a border area between the Black and Caspian Seas that includes the formerly breakaway Chechnya and other ethnic-based regions—appeared to increase substantially in 2007-2009. Moreover, civilian and government casualties reached levels not seen in several years and terrorist attacks again took place outside the North Caucasus. Although the number of terrorist incidents may have leveled off or even declined slightly in 2010 from the high levels of 2009, the rate of civilian and government casualties continued to increase throughout the North Caucasus in 2010 and a rising number of terrorist incidents took place outside of Chechnya. Illustrative of the new range and scope of violence, the Moscow subway system was bombed in March 2010, resulting in over 40 deaths and dozens of injuries. Before the recent rise in terrorism, it seemed that government security forces had been successful in tamping down their range and scope by aggressively carrying out over a thousand sweep operations (“zachistki”) in the North Caucasus. During these operations, security forces surround a village and search the homes of the residents, ostensibly in a bid to apprehend terrorists. Critics of the operations allege that the searches are illegal and that troops frequently engage in pillaging and gratuitous violence and are responsible for kidnapping for ransom and “disappearances” of civilians. Through these sweeps, as well as through thousands of direct clashes, most of the masterminds of previous large-scale terrorist attacks were killed. Some observers suggest that the increasing scope of public discontent against zachistki and deep economic and social distress are contributing to growing numbers of recruits for terrorist groups and to increasing violence in the North Caucasus. Interethnic and religious tensions are also responsible for some of the increased violence. Many ethnic Russian and other nonnative civilians have been murdered or have disappeared, which has spurred the migration of most of the nonnative population from the North Caucasus. Russian authorities argue that foreign terrorist groups continue to operate in the North Caucasus and to receive outside financial and material assistance. The United States generally has supported the Russian government’s efforts to combat terrorism in the North Caucasus. However, successive Administrations and Congress have continued to raise concerns about the wide scope of human rights abuses committed by the Russian government in the North Caucasus. The conference agreement on Consolidated Appropriations for FY2010 (P.L. 111-117), calls for $7.0 million to continue humanitarian, conflict mitigation, human rights, civil society and relief and recovery assistance programs in the North Caucasus. It also repeats language used for several years that directs that 60% of the assistance allocated to Russia will be withheld (excluding medical, human trafficking, and Comprehensive Threat Reduction aid) until the President certifies that Russia is facilitating full access to Chechnya for international nongovernmental organizations providing humanitarian relief to displaced persons. Congressional Research Service Stability in Russia’s Chechnya and Other Regions of the North Caucasus Contents Background ................................................................................................................................1 Recent Changes in the Range and Scope of Violence...................................................................2 Impact of the August 2008 Russia-Georgia Conflict ....................................................................7 Recent Developments in the North Caucasus...............................................................................8 Chechnya..............................................................................................................................8 Ingushetia ...........................................................................................................................10 Dagestan.............................................................................................................................12 Other Areas of the North Caucasus......................................................................................13 Contributions to Instability........................................................................................................14 Implications for Russia .............................................................................................................18 International Response..............................................................................................................20 Implications for U.S. Interests...................................................................................................22 Tables Table 1. The North Caucasus: Basic Facts ...................................................................................2 Table 2. U.S. Assistance to Russia’s North Caucasus Region, FY2007 and FY2008...................25 Contacts Author Contact Information ......................................................................................................26 Congressional Research Service Stability in Russia’s Chechnya and Other Regions of the North Caucasus Background During and after the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, the North Caucasus area of Russia experienced substantial disorder. Among such disorder, breakaway conflicts in neighboring Georgia rallied some North Caucasians to support their efforts; Chechen separatism gained ground, contributing to the breakup of the then-Chechen-Ingush Republic along ethnic lines; and ethnic Ingush clashed with ethnic North Ossetians over disputed territory. Russia’s then-President Boris Yeltsin implemented a federal system that permitted substantial regional autonomy over governance and taxes. While most North Caucasus republics agreed to remain as parts of Russia, Chechnya was at the forefront in demanding independence. In 1994-1996, Russia fought against Chechen separatists in a bloody campaign that led to thousands of Russian and Chechen casualties and hundreds of thousands of displaced persons, but ceasefire accords in 1996 resulted in de facto self-rule in Chechnya. Organized crime and Islamic extremism subsequently greatly increased in Chechnya and spilled out into bordering and other areas of Russia, including the alleged bombing of apartment buildings in Moscow and elsewhere in 1999 by Chechen terrorists. Ostensibly in response to the rising cross-border violence, Russia’s then-Premier Putin ordered military, police, and security forces to reenter Chechnya in late 1999. By early 2000, these forces occupied most of the region, resulting again in large numbers of civilian casualties and displaced persons. Over the next few years, government security forces acted extremely aggressively to tamp down the range and scope of the insurgency by aggressively carrying out over a thousand counter- terrorism operations (termed “zachistki” or “cleaning-up” operations) in Chechnya and elsewhere in the North Caucasus. During these operations, security forces surround a village and search the homes of the residents, ostensibly in a bid to apprehend terrorists. Critics of the operations allege that the searches are illegal and that troops frequently engage in pillaging and gratuitous violence and are responsible for kidnapping for ransom and “disappearances” of civilians. Through these sweeps, as well as through thousands of direct clashes, most of the masterminds of previous large-scale terrorist attacks were killed and such attacks became rarer, although they did not cease completely. In September 2004, terrorists attacked the Beslan grade school in North Ossetia, where 300 or more civilians, police, and troops were killed, and in October 2005, terrorists attacked the town of Nalchik in Kabardino-Balkaria, where 50 or more were killed. Although local Islamic extremist insurgents outside of Chechnya had cooperated to some degree with the Chechen insurgents for several years, in May 2005, then-Chechen rebel leader Abdul- Khalim Saydullayev decreed the formation of a Caucasus Front against Russia among Islamic believers in the North Caucasus. The goal of the front was to enhance Chechen ideological, logistical, and financial support for wider hostilities. In October 2007, his successor, Doku Umarev, declared a Caucasus Emirate embracing the North Caucasus and other Muslim areas of Russia. Congressional Research Service 1 Stability in Russia’s Chechnya and Other Regions of the North Caucasus Table 1. The North Caucasus: Basic Facts Republic Population Ethnic Groups Adygea Republic 447,000 Russians (64.5%), Adyghe (24.2%), Armenians (3.4%), Ukrainians (2%), and others. Chechnya Republic 1.1 million Chechens (93.5%), Russians (3.7%), Kumyks (0.8%), and others. Dagestan Republic 2.577 million Avars (29.4%), Dargins (16.5%), Kumyks (14.2%), Lezgins (13.1%), Russians (6.7%), Laks (5.4%), Tabasarans (4.3%), Azeris (4.3%), Chechens (3.4%), Nogais (1.5%), and others. Ingushetia Republic 467,000 Ingush (77.3%), Chechens (20.4%), Russians