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Community OR Organisers: Martha Vahl, Eliseo Vilalta-Perdomo And Community OR Organisers: Martha Vahl, Eliseo Vilalta-Perdomo and Alejandro Ochoa-Arias Martha Vahl Eliseo Vilalta-Perdomo 8/9/2010 : 09:30 : Room Windsor 0.03 Code:COR1 Modelling Dynamic Preferences of Disruptive Agents to Assess Risks of Violence Outbreaks Sumitra Sribhashyam*, Gilberto Montibeller** *The London School of Economics and Political Science,, **LSE Modelling threats caused by disruptive agents has been a booming area of interest, emphasised since the 9/11 terrorist strikes and especially in the field of insurances. Several modelling approaches have been attempted, including Monte Carlo simulations. Arguably, these methods may help in assessing natural disasters, but they may not be as accurate to model threats caused by agents within a system. Agents are subject to change their behaviour based on the system in which they evolve, and hence, observed past behaviour may prove to be an irrelevant factor in determining their future one. The proposed research aims to develop a framework for determining dynamic preferences over time of disruptive agents, which may help anticipate a motivation to cause social unrest and help understand how this impacts agents’ choice of a harmful action. The focus will be on modelling preferences changes induced by changes in beliefs, objectives or desired outcomes caused by various exogenous factors. The integration of multi-criteria decision analysis and system dynamics is investigated in order to achieve the aims. We propose to model the preference ordering of the disruptive agents based on their objectives to identify the most probable disruptive actions that such agents may perpetrate. To model exogenous changes, which may have an impact on the agents’ preferences, we propose using a system dynamics model. Combining the two approaches would inform how the agents may re-prioritise their objectives in response to changes in their environment. 8/9/2010 : 10:00 : Room Windsor 0.03 Code:COR2 Evaluating Entrepreneurship Models from a Community Development Viewpoint: A case study from central Mexico Eliseo Vilalta-Perdomo*, Cynthia Montaudón-Tomas** *Tecnológico de Monterrey, Guadalajara, **Tecnológico de Monterrey, Irapuato Entrepreneurship is considered a dynamo for economic development. Certainly it has arise also the belief that it might be useful to foster social development in deprived communities. This assumption is challenged through a research done in central Mexico. Nine different entrepreneurship models are recognized. Entrepreneurship programs from two different rural communities in the state of Guanajuato are analyzed also from a community viewpoint. Among the findings of this project, probably the most promising is to recognize that individual economic development and community social development are not as linked as we suspected initially. They seem to be subjects from different domains. A proposal to increase the life quality for future generations on rural communities is presented. It is centered on creating and maintaining self-organized web-based networks. 8/9/2010 : 11:00 : Room Windsor 0.03 Code:COR3 Influence of heterogeneous groups on solving problems: the need of diverse perspectives and heuristics Ricardo Barros, Luis Pinzón Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia Group composition has been considered as an important factor in solving difficult problems. Differences among members such as socio-demographic variables, abilities, ways of representing situations and problems - perspectives, use of algorithms to generate solutions - heuristics, are examples of approaches to understand diversity. In these approaches, some studies have shown that homogeneity in groups is required to generate cohesion, deep discussions, and agreements. Others studies have presented the need of heterogeneity in groups to generate better performance. In this paper, primary school students participated in an experiment of solving mathematical problems. Students were organized in groups having into account diversity in perspectives and heuristics to analyze the influence of this kind of diversity on performance in comparison to homogeneous groups. Implications of group composition on effectiveness in community group projects are explored. 8/9/2010 : 11:30 : Room Windsor 0.03 Code:COR4 Knowledgeland and the knowledgegap Chris Sigaloff vice chair of Knowledgeland, a think tank in the Netherlands Knowledgeland and the knowledgegap Sparking social innovations to improve society is an arduous task. Knowledgeland, an independent think tank in the Netherlands, has ten years of experience in setting up projects that create social innovation in the field of education, government, creative industry, heritage and social media. These innovations are not realized by introducing a new law, regulation or a comprehensive report - although these might help- but we tend to empower the community's agents and stimulate innovation from bottom up. This calls for better cooperation between multiple objectives, innovative power of professionals and a culture stimulating innovation from the inside. However, we are confronted with a research and knowledge gap in how to actually create a sustainable impact. Recipes or theories of innovation have little value for our daily practice. This uncovers the paradox that knowledge about innovation is not knowledge for creating innovation in real life. Established theory is in any case not supportive for achieving improvements and often creates too many negative side effects. At this conference we would like to investigate, with the help of the audience, if Community Operational Research can provide us with research principles that support our ambition in making Dutch society smarter. Not only by setting up projects to stimulate social innovation but also by building up a body of knowledge and research for innovation. Presenter: Chris Sigaloff, vice chair of Knowledgeland, an independent think tank in the Netherlands geared towards strengthening the knowledge economy. 9/9/2010 : 09:30 : Room Windsor 0.03 Code:COR5 Challenging Inequality? Vertical Interventions to Horizontal Problems? A study of a Healthy Living Centre within Lincolnshire Probation Jennifer Jackson, Rebecca Herron Community Operational Research Unit, University of Lincoln Health inequalities are not a ‘new’ issue, rather successive governments and policies have sought to understand and redress the structural and lifestyle causes of health outcomes. Health inequalities nevertheless remain a ‘wicked’ problem with ill-defined areas of resolution. One governmental solution has been the setting up of Healthy Living Centres amongst vulnerable groups who access health services least, the most unique being a Healthy Living Centre set up within Lincolnshire Probation in 2003. As this paper explores the Community Operational Research Unit (CORU) was given a unique opportunity to examine from 2003-8 the issues that this Healthy Living Centre (HLC) represents through a sustained engaged research project. In particular to examine the impact and dynamics of state intervention and public programmes for specific community groups and how organisational objectives for ‘improvement’ vie with ‘community’ engagement and individual belief systems and actions. That moreover engaging and evaluating ‘messy’ interventions and hard to reach groups is in itself a ‘messy’ process. This paper explores the nature of community OR practice in unravelling the multiple levels that impact on interventions and how it seeks to help policy makers and practitioners with their ‘wicked’ problems and potential solutions of how to act. 9/9/2010 : 10:00 : Room Windsor 0.03 Code:COR6 Evaluating the impact of a Wellness Recovery Action Plan training for members of the East Midlands Black Minority Ethnic community as a social intervention. Martha Vahl A training to deal with mental health issues using a self help WRAP method is deemed particularly suitable for members of the BME community. Some of their problems are that they are either overrepresented in some mental health services or fail to access them at all. The NHS commissioner of the project expected WRAP to support the BME communities to engage and that the training would become widely available throughout the East Midlands (Leicestershire, Nottinghamshire and Lincolnshire). The impact evaluation aims to identify how successful the training has been. It is intended to help participants to develop models for dealing with their community or mental health issues. During the training changes in these models is expected, e.g resulting in participants being able to act together inside their WRAP groups and to transfer the use of their models to the communities of which they are part. A training is usually evaluated as a technical intervention, e.g. a self assessment measurement of changes on certain variables (confidence, hope, skills, etc.) before and after a training. The WRAP training is being evaluated as a social intervention. Both the method of evaluation and the results are presented. 9/9/2010 : 10:30 : Room Windsor 0.03 Code:COR8 Working to develop an integrated programme of work operating as an OR analyst to a local voluntary sector Andrew Dobson Self-employed analyst The speaker will describe his efforts over the last year to develop an integrated programme of work operating as a pro-bono OR analyst and consultant to a local voluntary sector in south London. This has involved working to develop productive working relationships with several different targeted local voluntary organisations
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