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Morocco: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report 05/419; July 21, 2005

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Morocco: Selected Issues; IMF Country Report 05/419; July 21, 2005 © 2005 International Monetary Fund November 2005 IMF Country Report No. 05/419 April 13, 2004 January 29, 2001 January 29, 2001 February 24, 2004 January 29, 2001 Morocco: Selected Issues This Selected Issues Paper for Morocco was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 21, 2005. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Morocco or the Executive Board of the IMF. The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents by the IMF allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information. To assist the IMF in evaluating the publication policy, reader comments are invited and may be sent by e-mail to [email protected]. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services 700 19th Street, N.W. • Washington, D.C. 20431 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Telefax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: [email protected] • Internet: http://www.imf.org Price: $15.00 a copy International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND MOROCCO Selected Issues Prepared by Sena Eken, Abdourahmane Sarr, Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe, and Jérôme Vandenbussche (all MCD) Approved by Middle East and Central Asia Department July 21, 2005 Contents Page I. Morocco: Growth Performance ..........................................................................................4 A. Introduction.................................................................................................................4 B. Stylized Trends in Growth...........................................................................................5 C. Sources of Long-Term Growth: Estimates for Underlying Growth..........................12 D. The Role of Macroeconomic Stability and Structural Reforms as Determinants of Morocco’s Growth Performance ..........................................................................18 E. Conclusions...............................................................................................................27 Tables 1. GDP Growth, 1971–2004............................................................................................5 2. Estimation of the Production Function......................................................................15 3. Growth Decomposition for the Whole Economy......................................................15 4. Growth Decomposition for the Nonagricultural Sector ............................................16 5. Employment Scenarios, 2004–14..............................................................................18 6. Changes in Annual Average Per Capita Growth Between Periods...........................25 7. Expected Contributions to Annual Average Growth Changes Between Periods......27 8. Stationarity Tests.......................................................................................................34 9. Cointegration Rank Test (Trace): Production Function ............................................34 10. Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue): Production Function..................35 11. Vector Error Correction, Model with 1 Lag..............................................................35 12. Misspecification Tests, Model with 1 Lag ................................................................36 13. Definitions and Sources of Variables Used in Section D..........................................39 14. Determinants of Economic Growth, Basic Regression in Loayza and Others (2005).............................................................................................................40 Figures 1a. Real GDP Per Capita, 1971–2004...............................................................................6 1a. Real GDP Per Capita, 1991–2004...............................................................................6 2a. Real GDP Growth Rate ...............................................................................................7 2b. Nonagricultural Real GDP Growth Rate.....................................................................7 3. Volatility of Real GDP Growth...................................................................................7 - 2 - 4. Sectoral Shares in Nominal GDP ................................................................................8 5. Components of Fixed Gross Capital Formation..........................................................8 6. Real Sectoral Growth ..................................................................................................9 7. Growth of Components of Real Demand ..................................................................10 8. Real Growth of Exports of Goods and Services........................................................10 9. Government and Nongovernment Investment...........................................................10 10. Investment .................................................................................................................11 11. Savings......................................................................................................................11 12. Foreign Direct Investment.........................................................................................12 13. Growth Determinants, 1971–2004 ............................................................................23 14. Explaining Changes in Per-Capita Growth: 1998–2004 vs. 1991–98.......................26 15. Changes in Per-Capita Growth Due to Structural Reforms and Stabilization Policies: 1998–2004 vs. 1991–98..............................................................................26 Appendices 1. Mathematical Derivations, Econometric Application, and Data Used in Section C...............................................................................................................31 2. Econometric Procedure and Data Used in Section D................................................37 References................................................................................................................................29 II. Morocco: Exchange Rate Regime ....................................................................................41 A. Introduction...............................................................................................................41 B. Exchange Rate Regime and Performance .................................................................42 C. Analytical Considerations on the Choice of the Exchange Rate Regime .................50 D. Forward-Looking Considerations and Exchange Rate Policy Recommendation .....54 E. Desirable Degree of Flexibility .................................................................................56 F. Exiting from the Exchange Rate Peg.........................................................................57 G. Conclusions and Recommendations..........................................................................61 Boxes 1. A Natural Classification of Exchange Rate Regimes in Retrospect..........................43 2. Main Theoretical Approaches to Determining “Equilibrium” Exchange Rate .........48 3. Initial Conditions for Inflation Targeting..................................................................59 Tables 1. Quantitative Assessment of Factors Affecting the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes.............................................................................................................53 2. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 1990, 1995–2004...............................62 3. Direction of Trade, 1990, 1999–2004 .......................................................................63 4. Balance of Payments, 1999–2004 .............................................................................64 5. Chronology of Exchange Rate Arrangements, 1924–2004.......................................65 6. Stationarity Test (Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock DF-GLS Test)......................................73 7. Cointegration Trace Test: Exports, REER, and GDPADV.......................................74 8. Cointegration Eigenvalue Test: Exports, REER, and GDPADV..............................74 9a. Estimating Long-Run Exports, Based on 1989–91 Trade Weights ..........................75 - 3 - 9b. Estimating Long-Run Exports, Based on 1999–2001 Trade Weights ......................75 10a. Cointegration Trace Test: Balance of Payments Equilibrium Exchange Rate, Based on 1989–91 Trade Weights.............................................................................76 10b. Cointegration Trace Test: Balance of Payments Equilibrium Exchange Rate, Based on 1999–2001 Trade Weights.........................................................................76 11a. Cointegration Eigenvalue Test: Balance of Payments Equilibrium Exchange Rate, Based on 1989–91 Trade Weights ...................................................................77 11b. Cointegration Eigenvalue Test: Balance of Payments Equilibrium Exchange Rate, Based on 1999–2001 Trade Weights ...............................................................77 12. Estimating the Long-Run or Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER)...78 13a. Chi-Squared Test Statistics for Lag Exclusion, Based on 1989–91 Trade Weights......................................................................................................................79
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