Belfer Center Deepens Impact on Defense Policy in D.C. Ashton B

Winter 2011–2012 www.belfercenter.org Belfer Center Deepens Impact on Defense Policy in D.C. Ashton B. Carter and Eric Rosenbach Get Senior Pentagon Posts

Cyber Shield: Eric Rosenbach (left), former executive director for research at the Belfer Center, was appointed deputy DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy on September 26, 2011. In this position, he leads efforts to improve Department of Defense capability to operate in cyberspace.

Assistant Secretary of Defense for Global Strategic Affairs, is tasked with overseeing efforts to develop and install cyber-related policies, strategies, and plans. Commenting on Carter’s appointment, Securing the Nation: Ashton B. Carter (left) is sworn in as the 31st deputy secretary of defense by Jeh C. Johnson, Department of Defense general counsel, while Carter’s wife, Stephanie, holds the Bible. Belfer Center Director Graham Allison said, “As under secretary for acquisition, Ash has he Belfer Center is keeping up its impres- who lectures at the Kennedy School and is a been in the middle of the toughest calls about Tsive track record of sending Center affili- Belfer Center faculty affiliate. the future of the greatest military in the ates to take up senior positions in the federal world. With budgets shrinking, his challenges Ash has been in the middle of government. This fall, two Center veterans will be even more severe. But he’s the right were tapped for jobs that are among the most the toughest calls about the man for the right job at the right time.” challenging in the Department of Defense. future of the greatest military in Regarding Rosenbach, Allison said, “Eric Ashton B. Carter was sworn in on Octo- the world. . . . [H]e’s the right man is a tremendous leader who brings extensive ber 6 as deputy secretary of defense, the sec- cybersecurity policy and technical experience for the right job at the right time. to his new job as DASD for cyber policy. At a ond highest-ranking official in the Pentagon. —Graham Allison Unanimously confirmed by the U.S. Senate time when our country’s cybersecurity chal- for the position, Carter had served since 2009 In his new role, Carter’s responsibilities lenges demand great leadership, Eric will be a as under secretary of defense for acquisition, include identifying and carrying out billions major asset to DoD and the national security technology and logistics. Previously, he was of dollars in defense cuts mandated by Con- community.” co-director of the Belfer Center’s Preventive gress in a budget deal agreed upon this sum- See page 6 for a Q&A with Ashton B. Carter. Defense Project and he was director of the mer to reduce the projected federal deficit. A listing of Belfer Center affiliates serving in Center from 1990–93. He is on leave from the Rosenbach, working within the Office of the government is on page 4. Belfer Center Board of Directors. In September, Eric Rosenbach, who See Inside . . . served as executive director for research in the Belfer Center from 2007 to 2010 and taught Papademos Named Prime Minister of Greece 2 cyber terrorism classes at Harvard Kennedy Area Scholars Brainstorm Technology Innovation 3 School, was appointed deputy assistant secre- Belfer Center Presence in the Capital 4 tary of defense for cyber policy. Rosenbach, a veteran Army intelligence officer who served First U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment 5 on the staff of the Senate Select Committee Q&A with Ashton B. Carter 6 on Intelligence, was most recently in a senior Spotlight on James Schlesinger 7 position with Good Harbor Consulting, a leading consulting firm on cybersecurity and Fresh Ideas Essential to Security: Mowatt-Larssen 9 related issues founded by Richard Clarke— Impact of Palestinian Bid for Statehood 12 himself a former top White House official Diana Buttu on Palestinian bid. FROM THE DIRECTOR

uring the Cold War, one of the Dsignal contributions of scholars at the Harvard Kennedy School was to encourage communication between Soviet and American scien-

tists seeking to reduce the threat of a DEPARTMENT OF STATE nuclear Armageddon. The work of Paul Doty, John Holdren, and many others in the Belfer Center for Sci- ence and International Affairs was rightly acknowledged with the award of the Nobel Peace Prize in 1995 to the Pugwash Conferences. As we approach the 20th anniversary of the collapse of the Soviet Head of State: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (right) meets with the State Union on Christmas Day 1991, we can note with some satisfaction the Department’s International Security Advisory Board, which includes the Belfer Center’s Graham Allison and William Tobey (far end of table, left and right). ongoing role of the Belfer Center in addressing what Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama both called “the single largest threat to American national security.” This fall, former Kennedy School Associate Dean Robert Blackwill Two decades later, three strategic nuclear arsenals (Ukraine, Kazakh - and I co-chaired a new report examining why Russia still matters cru- stan, Belarus) have been zeroed out, 14,000 tactical nuclear weapons cially to the United States—especially with Vladimir Putin now poised (left in the 14 former Soviet republics) have been eliminated, and not to return to the presidency next year. This report was produced jointly a single nuclear weapon has been found loose in international arms by the Belfer Center and the Center for the National Interest in Wash- bazaars or another country. ington, with whom we have worked on U.S.-Russian relations for more than a decade. The Belfer Center is staying relevant and involved as It is with pride that we applaud Ash Carter as he begins work as the challenges shift from Cold War strategic nuclear deputy secretary of defense. President Obama chose him for this posi- weapons to . . . terrorist drones and dirty bombs. tion on the basis of his outstanding work as under secretary for acquisitions and logistics in the first two years of the Obama administration. This summer, specialists from the Belfer Center published the first- Other Belfer alumni with whom Ash will be working at the Defense ever joint threat assessment by U.S. and Russian experts on the threat Department include Under Secretary for Policy Michèle Flournoy, of nuclear terrorism. The report’s recommendations have been closely Deputy Under Secretary Jim Miller and now Eric Rosenbach, execu- studied in Washington and Moscow. This effort was led by senior fel- tive director for research from 2007 to 2010, who recently became low Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, Associate Professor Matt Bunn, senior fel- deputy assistant secretary of defense for cybersecurity. This is a field low Will Tobey, fellow Simon Saradzhyan, and Executive Director for where the Belfer Center is deepening its expertise thanks in part to Research Kevin Ryan, working with experts from the Institute for U.S. Venky Narayanamurti and Joe Nye, who are building up the new and Canadian Studies in Moscow. Explorations in International Cyber Relations project. Tobey, a former senior official in the National Nuclear Security In these ways, the Belfer Center is staying relevant and involved as Administration, is director of our U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent the challenges shift from Cold War strategic nuclear weapons to con- Nuclear Terrorism. That project is an important conduit for cooperation. tending with the threats of terrorist drones and dirty bombs.

Belfer Faculty Member Lucas Papademos Named Prime Minister of Greece

ucas Papademos, the Minos A. Zombanakis Professor at Harvard Papademos has taught courses on “Macroeconomic and Financial Pol- LKennedy School, has been named prime minister of Greece fol- icy in the Global Economy,” and “The Global Financial Crisis: Policy lowing the resignation of PM George Papandreou. Papademos will Responses and Challenges.” lead an interim government of national unity until elections in just Papademos was named Zombanakis Professor in April 2011. The over three months. professorship, which is based at the Belfer Center, was established last Papademos is a former vice-president of the European Central year with a $4 million endowment honoring Minos Zombanakis, a Bank and was governor of the Bank of Greece from 1994 to 2002. Harvard alumnus and member of the Belfer Center’s International “The course will not be easy,” Council. Zombanakis earned Harvard degrees in economics and public Papademos was quoted in news administration and has spent his career in banking. He is recognized for reports. “But the problems, I’m con- founding roles in the Euroloan markets, the syndicated loan market, vinced, will be solved. They will be and the creation of the London Interbank Offered Rate, or LIBOR.

MARTHA STEWART solved faster, with a smaller cost and “I am very pleased to have a man of the stature of Lucas Papademos in an efficient way, if there is unity, as the first person to occupy the Zombanakis chair,” Zombanakis said agreement and prudence.” when the professorship was announced. “These are trying times for Papademos is a visiting professor international markets, and I’m hopeful that Professor Papademos’ at Harvard Kennedy School, a profes- research will help enhance the understanding of the global financial New Greek Prime Minister Lucas sor of economics at the University system and identify ways in which we might improve it.” Papademos (left) with Minos A. of Athens, and senior fellow at the Papademos addressed a dinner of the Belfer Center International Zombanakis, Belfer Center Center for Financial Studies, Goethe Council’s annual meeting in April, describing Europe’s economic crisis International Council member. University, Frankfurt. At Harvard, and the prospects for getting through it without severe damage. 2 Scholars Weigh Info-Tech Policy Challenges

• How do you transform an invention into that triggered a lively discussion on the inter- an innovation that changes society? section of information and communications • Why does the transition to a new Internet technology and public policy/global eco- protocol amount to a “brain transplant?” nomic development. • How can schools use technology as more than just as a hood ornament? Key challenges ahead for Internet governance include a new These were some of the questions tackled by Internet Protocol, likened to a industry and academic experts from Harvard, brain transplant for the Internet. Connecting the Dots: Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) MIT, and other Boston-area universities at a Professor Archon Fung examines the intersection of three-day conference in September, convened The conference heard Peter Bol, the technology and politics. Fung is a professor of public by the Belfer Center’s project in Information Charles H. Carswell Professor of East Asian policy at HKS. and Communications Technology and Public Languages and Civilizations, describe the Policy. The event examined policy choices project he directs with partners at Fudan Uni- use “constructive defiance” to keep govern- facing the fast-changing field of information versity in Shanghai to create a geospatial ments from crushing free speech with Internet and communications technology. information system covering 2,000 years of censorship. Professor Venkatesh (Venky) Narayana- Chinese history, just one example of the tran- Chris Dede, Timothy E. Wirth Professor murti, faculty chair and director of Belfer’s sition from passive, static mapping to interac- in Learning Technologies at Harvard’s Grad- Science, Technology, and Public Policy pro- tive geospatial mapping. uate School of Education, described the inno- gram (STPP), challenged the audience of “It has to be more than a really cool map,” vative thinking behind the 2010 National technology executives to build organizations Bol said. Education Technology Plan. A key lesson, he able to translate inventions into innovations Belfer Center fellow Tolu Odomuso said, is to stop thinking first about the tech- over the long haul. “It might be a radical warned of key challenges ahead for Internet nological devices and focus instead on stu- invention like a light bulb: It’s complex, it’s governance, including the transition to a new dent-centric teaching and learning models, interactive, and you need to understand that Internet Protocol known as “version six” that using concepts such as “intelligence amplifi- both science and engineering are involved in he likened to a brain transplant for the Inter- cation” and “distributed education.” innovation,” said Narayanamurti, the found- net. MIT Professor Nazli Choucri and Belfer The Ash Center’s Archon Fung, Ford ing dean of Harvard’s School of Engineering Fellow Aadya Shukla said improved perfor- Foundation Professor of Democracy and Citi- and Applied Sciences. “You need leaders who mance on cybersecurity requires fundamental zenship at the Kennedy School, examined the understand and provide insulation because it agreements on the language used to describe intersection of technology and politics. He cannot be done in the short term.” cyber events. said he doubted there would or even could be The Belfer Center’s STPP Program Tom Vallely, director of the Vietnam Pro- a killer app in politics like those transforming launched the info-tech policy project in 2010 gram at Harvard Kennedy School, described the economy, production, and social relations. to suggest new policies to address these chal- the explosive growth of cell phone use The Shorenstein Center’s Nicco Mele, a lenges. Many of the speakers’ presentations throughout Southeast Asia, and how that is veteran of the earliest Internet campaigns, are posted online on the project’s new web- transforming economies and creating oppor- regaled participants with war stories and a page http://belfercenter.org/ICTP/. tunities for investors. succession of “Wow. Huh?” moments, from Calestous Juma, director of the Belfer Ethan Zuckerman, director of the Center the earliest days of Internet campaigning to Center’s Science, Technology, and Globaliza- for Civic Media at MIT, challenged technology what lies ahead. tion project, delivered a luncheon address companies working in autocratic countries to —James F. Smith Juma Lauded for Role in First Innovation Advisory Council in Africa

“Cities that fail to harness the power of inno- that would “advise the governor in identifying Juma . . . [whose] voice is one of the most vation will eventually become the customers new investment areas that could help the respected on our planet . . . [O]ur government of those that do,” said Babatunde Fashola, economy grow and generate new jobs.” owes a debt of gratitude for his inspirational governor of Lagos, in announcing the cre- Several participants in the executive pro- and motivational role in bringing us this far ation of the Lagos Innovation Advisory gram were named to the Council. and keeping our dream alive.” Council in September. —Dominic Contreras The Council—the first of its kind in Our government owes [Juma] a Africa and possibly in the developing world— debt of gratitude for his was an outgrowth of a Harvard Kennedy inspirational and motivational School (HKS) executive program in Lagos in role in bringing us this far and 2010 led by the Belfer Center’s Calestous keeping our dream alive. Juma, director of the Science, Technology, —Governor Fashola, Lagos and Globalization Project. The HKS training program, Juma said, “Our road to this day started in October “was put together to help the state government 2010,” said Governor Fashola during the inau- of Lagos reposition itself as a leader in innova- guration of the Council, “when the Lagos State tion in the region.” A year later, what began as Government in a partnership with the Har- a program to ease new cabinet members and vard Kennedy School convened a high-level Innovative Counsel: Calestous Juma speaks at the ministers into government, had reinvented executive program attended by 50 partici- info-tech conference about technology, innovation, and global policy development. itself into the 19-member Innovation Council pants.” It was “chaired by Professor Calestous 3 On the Job in Washington D.C.

Dozens of members of the Belfer Center community are currently serving or have until recently served in positions within the United States government. The group’s experience and expertise span many of the international challenges confronting the nation today. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Paul Anastas: Assistant Administrator, Office of Michèle Flournoy: Under Secretary of Defense Research and Development; Science Advisor to for Policy the Environmental Protection Agency Position while at Belfer Center: Research Fellow, Position while at Belfer Center: Senior Associate, International Security Program Environment and Natural Resources Program John P. Holdren: Assistant to the President for Rand Beers: Under Secretary for the National Science and Technology; Director, White House Michèle Flournoy, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Protection and Programs Directorate Office of Science and Technology Policy Position while at Belfer Center: Faculty Affiliate Position while at Belfer Center: Director, Science, Samantha Power: Senior Director for Multilateral Jennifer C. Bulkeley: Strategist, Office of the Technology, and Public Policy Program; Member, Board of Directors (on leave) Affairs, National Security Council Secretary of Defense Position while at Belfer Center: Director, Belfer Position while at Belfer Center: Research Fellow, Laura Holgate: Senior Director, WMD Terrorism Center Human Rights Initiative International Security Program; Research & Threat Reduction, National Security Council Assistant, Belfer Center/Stanford Preventive Position while at Belfer Center: Staff Assistant, Liz Sherwood Randall: Special Assistant to the Defense Project International Security Program President and Senior Director for European Affairs, National Security Council Kurt Campbell: Assistant Secretary of State for Bonnie Jenkins: State Department Coordinator Position while at Belfer Center: Founding Senior East Asian and Pacific Affairs for Threat Reduction Programs in the Bureau of Adviser, Belfer Center/Stanford Preventive Position while at Belfer Center: Assistant Director; International Security and Nonproliferation Defense Project Research Fellow, International Security Program Position while at Belfer Center: Research Fellow, Eric Rosenbach: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Ashton B. Carter: Deputy Secretary of Defense; Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program Defense for Cyber Policy, Department of Defense Previously, Under Secretary of Defense for Position while at Belfer Center: Executive Director Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Juliette Kayyem: Former Assistant Secretary of for Research Positions while at Belfer Center: Director; Homeland Security for Intergovernmental Co-director, Belfer Center/Stanford Preventive Programs Dennis Ross: Special Assistant to the President Defense Project; Member, Board of Directors Current position with Belfer Center: Lecturer in and Senior Director for the Central Region (on leave) Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School; Member, Current position with Belfer Center: Member, Belfer Center International Council Ivo Daalder: United States Permanent Board of Directors Representative, Council of the North Atlantic Matthew Kroenig: Former Special Advisor in the Benjamin Runkle: Professional Staff Member, Treaty Organization (NATO) Office of the Secretary of Defense House Armed Services Committee Position while at Belfer Center: Research Fellow, Position while at Belfer Center: Research Fellow, Position while at Belfer Center: Research Fellow, International Security Program Project on Managing the Atom/International International Security Program Paul De Sa: Chief of Strategic Planning and Security Program Gary Samore: Coordinator for Arms Control and Policy Analysis, Federal Communications James N. Miller, Jr.: Principal Deputy Under Weapons of Mass Destruction, Proliferation, and Commission Secretary of Defense for Policy Terrorism, National Security Council Position while at Belfer Center: Research Fellow, Position while at Belfer Center: Research Fellow, Position while at Belfer Center: Research Fellow, Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program International Security Program International Security Program Martin Feldstein: Former Member, White House Michael Nacht: Former Assistant Secretary of James A. Schear: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Economic Recovery Advisory Board Defense for Global Strategic Affairs Defense for Partnership Strategy and Stability Current position with Belfer Center: Member, Position while at Belfer Center: Assistant Director, Operations Board of Directors Center for Science and International Affairs (now Position while at Belfer Center: Research Fellow, International Security Program Steve Fetter: Assistant Director, White House Belfer Center) Office of Science and Technology Policy Daniel Poneman: Deputy Secretary of Energy Matthew Sharp: State Department Fellow, Position while at Belfer Center: Associate, Science, Position while at Belfer Center: Research Fellow, American Institute of Physics, Washington D.C. Technology, and Public Policy Program International Security Program Position while at Belfer Center: Research Fellow, Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program Maria J. Stephan: Strategic Planner, Department

PCAST of State’s Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization Science in Focus: Assistant to the President for Science and Technology John P. Position while at Belfer Center: Research Fellow, Holdren (left) makes a point to President Intrastate Conflict Program/International Barack Obama (right) at a meeting of the Security Program President’s Council of Advisors on Science Lawrence Summers: Former Director, White and Technology (PCAST). Holdren is co- House National Economic Council chair of PCAST and serves also as director of the White House Office of Science and Current position with Belfer Center: Member, Technology Policy. He is the former Board of Directors director of the Belfer Center’s Science, Paul Volcker: Former Chair, White House Technology, and Public Policy program and Economic Recovery Advisory Board is a member (on leave) of the Center’s Current position with Belfer Center: Member, board of directors. International Council 4 U.S. and Russian Experts Assess Threat of Nuclear Terror

esearchers from the United States and released on June 6, in Cambridge, Massachu- RRussia issued in June a joint assessment of setts, and in Moscow, resulted from a nearly the global threat of nuclear terrorism, warning year-long partnership between nuclear secu- of a persistent danger that terrorists could rity experts from the Belfer Center and The obtain or make a nuclear device and use it Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies in with catastrophic consequences. Moscow, a leading Russian research center. The first joint threat assessment by experts from the world’s two major nuclear powers This [document] can now concludes: “If current approaches toward be used as a basis for driving eliminating the threat are not replaced with a action in both governments. sense of urgency and resolve, the question will —Rolf Mowatt-Larssen become not if but when, and on what scale, the first act of nuclear terrorism occurs.” The lead U.S. and Russian authors are The study recommends measures to Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, a senior fellow in the tighten security over existing nuclear weapons Belfer Center and a former director of intel- and the nuclear materials terrorists would ligence and counter-intelligence at the U.S. need to make a crude nuclear bomb, along Department of Energy, and Pavel S. with expanded police and intelligence cooper- Zolotarev, a retired army general who is ation to interdict nuclear smuggling and stop deputy director of Moscow’s Institute for Kulikov (former Minister of Interior) and terrorist nuclear plots. The report also calls for U.S. and Canadian Studies, at the Russian General Eugene E. Habiger (former STRAT- improved protection of nuclear facilities that Academy of Sciences, and former head of the COM commander). This “Elbe Group” was might be sabotaged, and of radiological mate- Information and Analysis Center of the Russ- established by Kevin Ryan, the Belfer Center’s rials that might be used in a dirty bomb. ian Ministry of Defense. executive director for research, in October The report, titled “The U.S.-Russia Joint “The United States and Russia had never 2010 to create an informal communication Threat Assessment on Nuclear Terrorism,” produced a document that could be said to channel on security issues of concern to both represent a common understanding of the the United States and Russia. nuclear terrorism threat,” said Mowatt- The Joint Threat Assessment was coordi- Larssen. “This can now be used as a basis for nated by the Kennedy School’s U.S.-Russia

K E V I N R Y A N driving action in both governments.” Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism directed by William Tobey, a senior fellow in The threat of nuclear terrorism is the Belfer Center and former top official in increasing. Our response should the National Nuclear Security Administra- anticipate the dynamics of the tion. The assessment project was supported threat rather than lag behind it. by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a non-profit —Pavel S. Zolotarev organization in Washington that works to reduce threats from nuclear, chemical, and Dual Endorsement:The “Elbe Group,” a gathering of The researchers’ joint assessment was biological weapons. retired U.S. and Russian senior military and intelligence reviewed and endorsed by a group of retired ofﬁcers, reviews the joint threat assessment during a U.S. and Russian senior military and intelli- See full report at: http://belfercenter.org/ meeting in Cascais, Portugal, in June. gence officers, led by General Anatoliy S. USRussiaJTA/

Task Force Prescribes Steps to Strengthen U.S. Policy on Russia

ow will Vladimir Putin’s return to the Kremlin impact American national interests? HShould the U.S. allow Georgia to block Russia’s entry into the World Trade Organization? How can the U.S. engage Russia to reach further cuts in nuclear arsenals and reduce the global threat of nuclear terrorism? These thorny policy questions and others are tackled in a new report by the Task Force on Russia and U.S. National Interests, a group of business leaders and former military officers, senior government officials, and diplomats. The task force report assesses Russia from the perspective of American national interests and offers prescriptions for coherent, realistic management of the U.S.-Russia relationship as the two nations approach the 20th anniversary of the Soviet Union collapse on Dec. 25, 1991. The study also makes the case that Russia remains one of a handful of countries in the world that deeply affect American economic and security interests, demanding constant U.S. attention. While recognizing that the Obama administration’s reset policy has led to significant improvements in U.S.-Russia relations, the report warns that relations remain fragile— Powers That Be: Belfer Center Director Graham Allison (left) and that an undertow of mutual distrust is more at fault than specific disputes. and former Ambassador Robert D. Blackwill discuss the The task force was co-chaired by Belfer Center Director Graham Allison and Robert D. report “Russia and U.S. National Interests: Why Should Blackwill, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. The project director was Dim- Americans Care?” during an event co-sponsored by the Belfer Center and the Center for the National Interest (CNI) itri K. Simes, president of the Center for the National Interest. The Center’s Executive Direc- in Washington, D.C. tor Paul J. Saunders served as editor for the report. 5 Q&A Ashton B. Carter Ashton B. Carter, a member of the Belfer Center Board of Directors (on leave), is a former director of the

Belfer Center and was co-director of the Center’s Preventive Defense Project until leaving in 2009 to serve as DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE under secretary of defense for acquisition, technology and logistics. Following his recent selection as deputy secretary of defense, we asked Carter about the challenges and opportunities of his new position.

What do you see as your major chal- threat of Improvised Explosive Devices, bet- Qlenges as deputy secretary of defense? ter intelligence, surveillance, and reconnais- We are still a nation at war, and one of my sance capabilities, or better logistical support. foremost responsibilities as deputy is to help This effort remains one of my highest priori- Secretary [Leon] Panetta prosecute current ties as deputy. operations around the world: against al I also insisted that we deliver better value Qaeda and its affiliated groups, in Iraq and to the taxpayer and warfighter for each Afghanistan, Libya, and elsewhere. defense dollar we spend. In September 2010, respond to rapidly changing global threats. As But we also are turning a strategic corner, Secretary Gates and I issued guidance to our former Secretary Gates famously asked in a as we prepare to wind down two long wars acquisition workforce, entitled “Better Buying 2009 Foreign Affairs article, “Why [is] it nec- and enter a new era of defense spending in Power,” which identified the principal changes essary to bypass existing institutions and pro- response to the country’s fiscal situation. In we felt were necessary to improve the way the cedures to get the capabilities needed to this unprecedented budgetary environment, Department of Defense does business—for protect U.S. troops and fight ongoing wars?” one of my principal managerial challenges example, making more appropriate use of In my own experience as under secretary of will be to find savings—in efficiencies, per- contract type, insisting on paying what our AT&L, I have had to cut through reams of sonnel costs, force structure, and moderniza- products and services should cost rather than bureaucratic red tape to deliver the capabili- tion—that are driven by strategy and a vision fatalistically accepting what budget estimators ties our warfighters need on their timetable, of the future, and not just by expediency. We forecast they will cost without managerial and not on the timetable of the Pentagon’s have botched previous drawdowns after intervention, leveraging real competition as ponderous acquisition and budgeting major wars in our history, and this time we opposed to settling for a series of directed processes. Fixing this problem will be a prior- need to do it right. buys, mandating affordability as a require- ity of mine as deputy. ment for the acquisition of future weapon sys- I also believe that we must continue to Having just completed two and a half tems, and improving our tradecraft in deliver better value to the taxpayer and Qgrueling years as under secretary of contracting for services. These reforms would warfighter for our defense dollars. Our busi- defense for acquisition, technology and be important to apply in any budget environ- ness performance, in my view, is still not logistics (AT&L), what would you identify as ment, but they take on added significance acceptable, and our relentless pursuit of value two or three accomplishments of which given the defense budget cuts we face. The must continue to expand in scope, with you’re proudest? days when ever-rising budgets could cover important advances still needed in our When former Secretary of Defense Gates poor program management are gone. approaches to services acquisition, cyber, offered me the under secretary job, he said, These changes are already showing information technology, control of total life- “The troops are at war and the Pentagon is results in such big-ticket programs as the cycle costs, iteration with the requirements not, and especially AT&L.” He made KC-46 Tanker (where an unprotested con- process, engagement of small and innovative absolutely clear he wanted that to change, and tract award ended a many-year drama and business partners, the industrial base, and I am most proud that we have been able to set obtained a great deal for the Air Force), and other areas. a faster tempo of support to our troops our largest tactical aircraft, shipbuilding, and Having spent most of the prior quarter around the world. As under secretary, I would satellite programs. century at Harvard’s Kennedy School as wake up every morning and ask myself what Q What about frustrations in that job, or a professor, director of the Belfer Center, and my office could do that day to accelerate the Qitems still on the not-yet-completed list? founding chair of the International and delivery of equipment and material to the- Global Affairs concentration, in what ways I remain concerned that we have yet to estab- ater: whether it be Mine Resistant Ambush did that experience prepare you for your job lish a so-called “fast lane” for support to con- Protected All-Terrain Vehicles and bomb- as under secretary and now deputy secretary? sniffing dogs to protect our troops against the tingency acquisitions and, more generally, to The Kennedy School’s output is everywhere in national security circles—in Washington Terrain Tough: Ashton B. Carter speaks and around the world. The seminal strategic during a presentation in 2009 of the ideas of giants like Schelling, Nye, Allison, MRAP All-Terrain Vehicle. Then under and others underlie every policy or crisis dis- secretary of defense for acquisition, cussion. Secretary Panetta’s special assistant technology, and logistics, Carter noted that bigger tires were added to the and my special assistant are both former stu- shorter body size of the vehicles, which dents of mine—just two of so many alumni are also lighter than their predecessors who make our government and world better. AP PHOTO/MANUEL BALCE CENETA but with the same size engine. These When I visited the Japanese Ministry of characteristics, he explained, make it Defense a while back, the minister surprised easier for the vehicles to navigate Afghanistan’s difficult mountainous me with a roomful of Kennedy School alumni terrain. The M-ATVs are used by all who work there. What a wonderful institu- military branches. tion to be associated with!

6 SPOTLIGHTJames Schlesinger Belfer Center Director Graham Allison spearheaded the campaign to create a Harvard professorship in honor of James Schlesinger to honor his lifetime of extraordinary achievement and his service as a model public servant. Schlesinger’s long list of responsibilities includes his current role as chairman of the Belfer Center International Council. Here Allison reflects on Schlesinger the man, and on how an institution like Harvard comes to honor him.

hy will there now be in perpetuity a At that dinner, I described Jim’s impact: DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE WJames R. Schlesinger Professorship of “Jim Schlesinger has the unique distinction as Energy, National Security, and Foreign Policy the only individual who has served the United at Harvard? There was no such position last States as Secretary of Defense, Director of year, or a decade or one hundred years ago. But CIA, and Secretary of Energy. What better there will be one hundred years hence. symbol of a commitment to apply the best of Why does Harvard have no Franklin Roo- the mind to the most difficult challenges of early gift from Frank Cilluffo that had grown sevelt Professorship of Government? No energy, national security, and foreign policy?” over the years thanks to the prudent invest- Theodore Roosevelt Professorship? I also pointed out that “in perpetuity” at ments of Harvard Management Company The inconvenient truth is that the reason Harvard means a long time. Harvard was meant that the amount to be raised to meet why—and the only reason why—is that founded 150 years before the United States the $4 million required was much smaller donors gave Harvard money to establish the became an independent country. It is the old- than it would otherwise have been. A number one, and not the others. est continuous human institution on the terri- of major supporters of the Belfer Center Most students and faculty members at the tory of the North American continent today. stepped up in response to a call for “seven University take for granted the opportunities The first endowed professorship in America stalwarts” who each gave $100,000 to finish Harvard provides. Few stop to ask why there was established at Harvard in 1721, the Hollis the effort. These include Louis Appell, is the greatest private library in the world Professorship of Theology. For almost 300 Robert Belfer, Les Goldman, Peter Peterson, (named Widener), a home for a Kennedy years, holders of that professorship have been Alfred and Robert Taubman, Herbert School of Government (named Littauer), or conducting research and teaching. “In perpe- Winokur (and myself). classrooms and conference spaces (like the tuity,” means that a decade from now, and a The celebratory dinner in Washington Malkin Penthouse and Wiener Auditorium). century from now—assuming the world con- included many highlights. Jim Schlesinger Nature did not create these structures. tinues in something like its current form—at told a wonderful story about the encounter Harvard presidents, deans, and bureaucrats Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government between Pat Moynihan (then a Senator, for- did not create these learning environments there will be a James R. Schlesinger Professor- merly Harvard professor) and Danny Ros- with their own resources. Specific donations ship of Energy, National Security, and Foreign tenkowski (a Chicago-based chairman of the of dollars from the donors for whom these Policy, advancing the frontiers of policy-rele- House Ways and Means Committee) that buildings, professorships, and scholarships vant knowledge about these critical issues. cannot be recounted in print. Robert Hefner are named made possible these benefits fac- John F. Kennedy’s line about success hav- related a number of personal stories summa- ulty and students enjoy. ing “a thousand fathers and mothers” is cer- rized aptly by his conclusion that Jim is for To return to the main storyline: the cre- tainly true in the case of the creation of the him, as for so many of those who have been ation of the James R. Schlesinger Professor- Schlesinger professorship. A project initiated inspired by him, a “hero.” Les Goldman ship of Energy, National Security, and Foreign more than a decade ago languished until sev- offered a menu of adjectives that he suggested Policy. eral years ago when Mary Beth Pearlberg applied to the Jim he knew, each of which Who is Jim Schlesinger? As I noted at a (director of development at Harvard’s struck responsive chords with most members dinner in October celebrating Schlesinger Kennedy School), Fred Glimp (former direc- of the audience. and the donors whose generosity made it tor of development at Harvard), and I, along Ash Carter (a former director of the possible to create this chair, Jim is a “great with several others, were stirred by an indi- Belfer Center), who had just come from his American; a great son of Harvard; a great vidual sometimes called the “Chinese wind.” swearing in ceremony to become deputy sec- patriotic American;” in the vocabulary of That refers to MeiLi Hefner, the Chinese- retary of defense, offered a toast to Jim as his Gilbert and Sullivan, “the very model of a born wife of Robert Hefner (an outstanding mentor and model in the application of “an modern public servant.” energy entrepreneur and great admirer of objective, analytic mind to the most difficult Schlesinger). MeiLi, Robert, and challenges of public policy.” the others energized each other After dinner, in an unscripted initiative, in a determination to move the one of Jim’s daughters reminded the group campaign across the goal line. that he had often serenaded his children with Les Goldman (an associate of verses of “Fair Harvard” and urged Jim to rise Schlesinger’s from Schlesinger’s for this occasion. While he remained sitting, days at the Energy Department), he did his own version of the verse that con-

STEVE BARRETT PHOTOGRAPHY who had been present at the cludes, “Till the stock of the Puritans die.” beginnings, joined the effort. An —Graham Allison

Academic Honors: James Schlesinger (center) with Belfer Center Director Graham Allison (left) and Deputy Secretary of Defense Ashton B. Carter during Harvard Kennedy School’s celebration in October of the new James Schlesinger Professorship. 7 These pages feature a few of the talented women and men who are current and former faculty, fellows, staff, and associates of the Belfer Center whose work is making significant contributions in public and private sectors around BELFERthe world. Faculty, Fellows, Staff, C Featured Fellows—Focus on Research YVONNE YEW seeks better understanding of the Non-Aligned Movement in Nuclear Global Order Yew is a research fellow with the Project on Managing the Atom and International Security Program ince the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) emerged 50 years ago to She explains that the behavior of NAM’s indi- Scounter the dominant power blocs of the Northern Hemisphere, a vidual members falls into three categories: “lead- new global order has taken shape. In her June 2011 discussion paper, ers,” like South Africa or Egypt, which utilize NAM “Diplomacy and Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Navigating the Non- to assert their stewardship in the developing world; Aligned Movement,” Belfer Center fellow Yvonne Yew argues that devel- “spoilers,” notably Iran, which seek to promote a oping countries now stand at a pivotal moment for nuclear engagement. divisive, anti-American agenda through NAM’s Yvonne Yew While the Obama administration continues to push a cooperative platform; and “others”—the majority of NAM approach to stemming the spread of nuclear weapons, Iran is posi- members—comprised of smaller states with less clout and resources to tioned to become NAM Chair in 2012. Because such an appointment significantly influence nuclear dialogue. is likely to further complicate nuclear cooperation, Yew argues the Yew, a past fellow with the Future of Diplomacy Project and cur- importance of understanding that NAM positions do not always rent joint fellow with the Belfer Center’s Project on Managing the cohere to NAM members’ actions. Atom/International Security Program, occupies a unique vantage point for distinguishing the complexity of NAM’s non-proliferation The differences between the NAM and the Western positions. She was Singapore’s representative to the IAEA in Vienna, world frame the nuclear non-proliferation discourse. Austria, where she served on the agency’s Board of Governors from —Yvonne Yew 2004 to 2006. As a former diplomat, she brings a practitioner’s insights into the complex machinations of NAM discussions. “A few key actors have played an active role in . . . creating a false “The differences between the NAM and the Western world frame perception of homogeneity of the 120 members to outside actors,” the nuclear non-proliferation discourse,” she says. writes Yew. “The reality is much more complicated.” As much of the projected growth in nuclear energy use is expected Yew, therefore, calls for the need to “understand why moves to to take place in the developing world, Yew says, the path taken by key strengthen non-proliferation measures have been opposed by the NAM developing countries will play an important role in shaping the future as unfair, unnecessary, and burdensome to developing countries.” nuclear order. —Joseph Leahy

HANNE HAGTVEDT VIK Studies Human Rights and Implementation of Protective Laws Vik is a research fellow with the International Security Program anne Hagtvedt Vik, a professor of international history at the research led to a recent paper, which explores how constitutional law HUniversity of Oslo and Belfer Center research fellow, has spent severely limits the United States when it comes to ratifying human much of her career studying human rights and the implementation of rights treaties. international laws and treaties to protect oppressed and indigenous peoples. Vik said the driving force behind her work is the exact opposite When we talk about ratification of human of the racism that motivated a fellow Norwegian citizen to carry out the rights treaties . . . we must not conflate terrorist attacks in Oslo on July 22 this year. ratification with practice. “It was a tremendous shock to everyone when the bomb went off,” Vik —Hanne Hagtvedt Vik said in a recent interview. “Most thought it was Muslim extremists who were behind it, so it was kind of a relief when we got to know it was a “One thing that’s very important to remember when we talk about white, middle-class male in Oslo who was behind everything.” ratification of human rights treaties is that we must not conflate ratifi- Norway has not always been the peaceful utopia some journalists cation with practice,” Vik said, “Many states that are parties to human describe. Vik traces her own interest in international history and poli- rights treaties never had any intention of changing their domestic laws tics back to a surge of neo-Nazism during her teens. and practices to better live up to the ideals of the human rights “It was a small group, but they were so frightening in their ideas,” Vik treaties.” She lists the U.S. among those who have not ratified many said. “I believed it was really important for everyone to stand up against human rights treaties, but have used national and state law to show a racism and such ideas, and my interest eventually evolved into more commitment to protecting human rights. international issues with foreign aid, security politics, and human rights.” Vik’s unique work has found a welcome home at the Belfer Center Her roles as a student activist, government officer, and now and she has enjoyed interacting with other fellows and colleagues. researcher have given Vik a myriad of angles through which to view her “The Belfer Center in the Kennedy School is doing a wonderful job postdoctoral work, most specifically on the struggle of the Sami people, of bringing people together from different sectors of society,” she said. the most prominent group of indigenous peoples living in Norway. This “They come from literally all over the world, so it’s a place where you can come and meet others who have had very different experiences in their lives that color their views on important issues.” Human Rights and Wrongs: Hanne At the end of her fellowship, Vik will return to her teaching post at Hagtvedt Vik (left) is interviewed by the University of Oslo and continue her work in the fields of human and Meredith Blake, Belfer Center indigenous rights and the history of international organizations. communications intern. —Meredith Blake 8 Belfer Center Programs and Projects: International Security Program; Science, Technology, and Public Policy; Environment and Natural Resources Program; Dubai Initiative; Energy Technology Innovation Policy; Manag- ing the Atom; Science, Technology, and Globalization Project; Broadmoor Project; Harvard Project on Interna- and Alums tional Climate Agreements; Initiative on Religion in International Affairs; Agricultural Innovation in Africa; U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism; Middle East Initiative; Future of Diplomacy Project; India ENTERand South Asia Program; Information and Communications; Technology and Public Policy; Geopolitics of Energy Terrorist Threat Demands Creative Intelligence

olf Mowatt-Larssen, a former director of such as airplanes or inconspicuous chemical “It’s outrageous Rintelligence and counterintelligence at the substances. This has forced those in the intel- that we have an Department of Energy, argues that despite not ligence and national security community to IAEA that’s got falling victim to a major terrorist event in the cast aside 60 years of state-to-state-based no intelligence last 10 years, the United States must not be security thinking and replace it with a new capacity, what I complacent in its counter-terrorism efforts. state-to-non-state-actor paradigm. call genuine ana- Mowatt-Larssen said in a Belfer Center lytical capacity, seminar in September that he believes the Mowatt-Larssen believes the much less a col- possibility of a major attack is higher in the possibility of a major attack is lection capability,” he said, referencing next 10 years than in the preceding decade. higher in the next ten years than shortcomings in the global institution charged Hosted by Belfer Center Director Graham in the preceding decade. with regulating and safeguarding nuclear Allison, Mowatt-Larssen’s talk centered material and programs. Unfortunately, he largely on what the former Central Intelli- According to Mowatt-Larssen, effectively said, “I suspect it will take the next big attack gence Agency officer perceives is a deficit in combating this threat requires a multilateral to stimulate this kind of thinking.’’ creative thinking regarding counter-terrorism approach in which information sharing and and nuclear security. cooperation within and among governments We’re living in a world where “What we need most of all is ideas,” he are the cornerstone in successful counter-ter- everything is in tremendous said. “We need new ideas. We’re living in a rorism and counter-proliferation policies. dynamic change, and by world where everything is in tremendous Using this approach, the U.S. and its allies simply reflexively applying dynamic change, and by simply reflexively “probably stopped . . . at least a half dozen or old methodologies . . . we applying old methodologies, whether they are more specific terrorist attacks . . . in the defense or intelligence or counter-proliferation 2002–2003 timeline because of the way we are sure to fail. . . . we are sure to fail.” shared information,” he said. “No country is an —Rolf Mowatt-Larssen Mowatt-Larssen, a senior fellow in the island. . . . [and] if you did give everything to Belfer Center, said that creative thinking and everybody you couldn’t stop anything.” Mowatt-Larssen suggested a “strategic the exploitation of dynamic opportunities He said the belief in the efficacy of intelli- reorientation of how we think of threats and can allow small groups of focused individu- gence sharing was so strong, especially in the how we think of actors, [and] how we think of als—like al Qaeda and alleged anthrax attack aftermath of 9/11, that in 2003 a decision was risk management.” He emphasized the need to perpetrator Bruce Ivins—to accomplish that made by the U.S. to share, through an inter- move away from an ad-hoc, reactionary which was previously the domain of states mediary, sensitive information with the Iran- approach to combating terrorism, and move and militaries. Rather than relying on mili- ian government that a terrorist attack was toward a more doctrinal based approach, akin tary contingents and weapons of mass possibly being planned within its borders. The to that used by the U.S. military in Iraq and destruction, which are easier to track and exact details of this incident remain classified. Afghanistan. For the intelligence community, regulate, terrorists seek what Mowatt- Mowatt-Larssen suggested the creation of this lack of a long-term, doctrinal approach “is Larssen termed “weapons of mass effect,” what he called a global intelligence capacity. one of our worst shortcomings.” That said, the United States and its allies have seen tangible and measurable successes in their fight against extremism, Mowatt- Larssen said. Even before the May 2 raid that killed former al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden, the group’s popularity and effective- ness in the region had been steadily declining. “They’re on the run,” he said. “Their narrative is not as appealing in the Middle East because other things [like the Arab Spring] have tran- scended it or superseded it.” Effectively dealing with terrorism demands “new solutions, new thinking, imag- ination, and most of all taking it seriously as being part of a body of things, not some isolated threat that you have to believe in or not believe in.” —Dominic Contreras See Rolf Mowatt-Larssen’s report with a Creative Security: Rolf Mowatt-Larssen (right), a Belfer Center senior fellow, discusses the threat of “weapons of timeline illustrating terrorists’ efforts to mass effect” at a Belfer Center seminar. Stephen Palmer (left) of Raytheon took part in the discussion. acquire WMD at http://AlQaedaTimeline/. 9 JAY O’CONNOR BELFER More from Less: RA Mashelkar, chair of the National Innovation Foundation in India, discusses innovation with Harvard Kennedy School students in classes taught by the Belfer Center’s Calestous Juma. A leading advocate of inclusive innovation for economic development and India’s Distinguished Service: Richard N. Haass (right), president of the Council top science and on Foreign Relations, discusses his views on diplomacy, policy, and technology policy leadership with the Belfer Center’s Meghan O’Sullivan (left), Jeane architect, Mashelkar is a member of 30 leading scientific and engineering academies around Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, at the JFK Jr. the world. He has received over 50 prestigious medals and awards as well as 25 honorary Forum. Haass, a former assistant to President George H.W. Bush and one- degrees in recognition of his outstanding contributions to advancing science, technology, time director of policy planning for the State Department, has authored and innovation worldwide. 12 books and numerous articles on critical global issues.

Nuclear Power Principles: Ariel Levite (left), a non-resident senior associate with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, speaks Diplomacy and Development: Former Congressman and U.S. Ambassador to India Timothy on “Nuclear Power Plant Exporters Principles of Conduct: Evolution, Status Roemer (right) discusses U.S.-India relations with students, faculty, and fellows during a Belfer and Prospects,” at a Project on Managing the Atom seminar. Levite is a Center seminar. Roemer served as U.S. ambassador to India during a period in which U.S.- former deputy national security advisor and head of the Bureau of Indian cooperation greatly increased on a host of issues. Prior to becoming ambassador, International Security in the Israeli Ministry of Defense. Steven E. Miller Roemer served as a member of the 9/11 Commission. Eben Harrell, research associate with (right), director of the Belfer Center’s International Security Program, took the Project on Managing the Atom and a former journalist with Time magazine, took part in part in the discussion. the discussions.

Offense and Defense: Eric Schmitt (center) and Thom Shanker (left), award winning journalists with the New York Times, discuss their new book, Counterstrike: The Untold Story of America’s Secret Campaign against Tops in Science: Cherry Murray (right), dean of the Harvard School of Engineering and Al Qaeda, during a Belfer Center seminar in October. In Counterstrike, Applied Sciences, discusses technology and public policy during a Belfer Center Board of Schmitt and Shanker tell the story of how, after 9/11, analysts within the Directors’ lunch. Named by Discovery Magazine as one of the 50 most important women in military, intelligence, and law enforcement agencies fashioned an science, Murray has led a distinguished career in both academia and the professional world. innovative and effective new strategy to fight terrorism. Belfer Center Also pictured is Harvard Kennedy School’s Venkatesh (Venky) Narayanamurti, director of Communications Director James F. Smith, who organized the visit, is the Center’s Science, Technology, and Public Policy program and founding dean of Harvard’s pictured on right. engineering school.

10 SPEAKERS TOM FITZSIMMONS

Safer Today? Juliette Kayyem (mid-left), former assistant secretary for intergovernmental affairs at the Department of Homeland Security, makes a point during a JFK Jr. Forum titled “9/11 Ten Years On: Experts Urge Greater Diplomacy.” Moderated by Belfer Center Director Game Changer: Amos Yadlin (left), former chief of intelligence for Israel, Graham Allison (left), the panel included Nicholas Burns (far-right), faculty chair of the discusses the Arab uprisings at a Center event with Richard Rosecrance (center) Center’s Future of Diplomacy Project, and Michael Leiter, former director of the National and Matthew Bunn. A Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) Wexner Fellow (’93–’94), Counterterrorism Center. Yadlin has noted that his HKS experience convinced him to remain in the military and to change his leadership style from giving commands to providing a vision, mobilizing support, and bringing others on board through persuasion. Subsequently, he sent his junior officers to the HKS for leadership training.

Words and Deeds: Jacqueline (Jill) Hazelton, a former research fellow with the International Security Program, speaks to faculty and fellows about “Compellance and Accommodation in Counterinsurgency Warfare,” at an International Security Program brown bag lunch. Currently a visiting assistant professor at the University of Rochester, Hazelton’s work focuses on international security, counterinsurgency, terrorism, and U.S. foreign policy and military power. Prevention and Protection: John Brennan (center), chief counterterrorism advisor to President Barack Obama, discusses terrorism and counterterrorism issues with faculty and fellows at the Center. Brennan is responsible for overseeing plans for protecting the country from terrorist attacks. Among those taking part in the discussion were Belfer Center senior fellows David Sanger (left) and Olli Heinonen (right).

China Transformed: Ezra F. Vogel (right), professor emeritus of social sciences at Harvard, speaks about his new book Deng and the Transformation of China, at a West Greets East: China’s Ambassador to the United States, Zhang Yesui (right), answers Center Board of Directors’ Lunch. Vogel is a leading expert on East Asian affairs questions during a presentation on “U.S.-China Relations and China’s Role in the World.” and has published numerous articles, reviews, and books on the subject. He was introduced by Nicholas Burns (left), Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and Harvard’s James Sebenius (left), director of the Project on Negotiation, and the International Politics and faculty chair of the Belfer Center’s Future of Diplomacy project. Belfer Center’s Richard Rosecrance, director of Harvard Kennedy School’s Yesui is a career diplomat who has also held positions as vice-minister in the Chinese Project on U.S.-China Relations, took part in the discussion. Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

11 NEWSMAKERSInternational Security • Environment and Natural

Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer, assistant professor at the Norwegian Defence University College and former research fellow with the Inter- Impact of the Palestinian Bid for Statehoo national Security Program and Project on Managing the Atom, received the Michal Ben-Josef Hirsch Nicholas Burns annual Michael Nicholson Thesis Prize from Associate, International Security Program; Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and the British International Studies Association for her dissertation, Nuclear Entrepreneurs: Fellow, Schusterman Center for Israel Studies, International Politics Drivers of Nuclear Proliferation. Brandeis University “It’s a diplomatic trainwreck for all concerned.

Thomas Hegghammer’s book, Prior to the September Palestinian request for I think every country involved in this in a prin-

Jihad in Saudi Arabia, was awarded full membership at the United Nations, many cipal way is going to lose. The Palestinians are the Silver Medal for the 2011 Arthur warned about a diplomatic train wreck at the going to end up with a relationship with the Ross Book Award from the Council international level and violence—even a third United States that’s fraying, if not worse. The on Foreign Relations. Hegghammer intifada—at the local level. Others made the Israelis, already isolated by the Arab revolu- is a senior research fellow at the Norwegian case that a move to the UN would add a sense tions, will be further isolated. . . . [The U.S.] did

Defence Research Establishment and a former of urgency that could spur the much needed not want to be put in the position of essentially research fellow and associate with the Initiative push for peace talks. In reality not much of the vetoing statehood for the Palestinians. . . . Most on Religion in International Affairs and Inter- above has materialized. The referral to the of the world is going to be supportive of this national Security Program. Security Council’s admission committee bid. In practical terms, it does not bring us any

In May 2011 Ben Heineman, a bought time and averted at least for now any closer to a resolution 63 years on from the Belfer Center senior fellow, was potential international showdown. Locally, Israeli-Palestinian dispute. I think it will actu- elected to the prestigious American beyond some rallies and a handful of clashes ally bring us further away from that. It’s a sad Philosophical Society. America’s first learned society, it was founded there was relatively little violence. And judging day, I think, whether you support the Palestini- in 1743 by Benjamin Franklin and continues to by how both sides stall their responses to the ans or the Israelis, nobody gains from this.” promote useful knowledge in the sciences and Quartet’s request to draft their proposal for (Comments from “Palestinian leaders seek full humanities “through excellence in scholarly negotiation there seems to be no new sense of recognition at the United Nations,” Greater research, professional meetings, publications, urgency. As it stands, the expected lengthy pro- Boston with Emily Rooney, September 22, 2011) library resources, and community outreach.” cedure at the UN is unlikely to help turn the

Palestinian bid for statehood into a real or even Diana Buttu Juliette Kayyem, lecturer in public policy with the Belfer Center and a symbolic game-changer. Fellow, Middle East Initiative

member of the Belfer Center Board (Comments for this article, October 2011) “I think the old negotiations process has com- of Directors, has been asked to serve pletely run its tired course. You’ve got countries on the World Economic Forum’s around the world recognizing that you can’t just Global Agenda Council on the United States have this process of endless negotiations with 2011, which aims to consider U.S. responses to contemporary challenges through the exami- nation of policy decisions and leadership. Paul Staniland, former research fellow with the International Security Program and Intrastate Conflict Program, won the 2011 Kenneth N.

Waltz Dissertation Award from the

American Political Science Association’s Inter- national Security and Arms Control section for best dissertation submitted during 2010: Explaining Cohesion, Fragmentation, and Con- trol in Insurgent Groups. He is currently assistant professor of political science at the University of Chicago. Moshik Temkin, assistant professor of public policy and Belfer Center faculty affiliate, was named to the Big Think Delphi Fellows, a group of top academics, intellectuals, and other thought leaders committed to informing the public of the “biggest trends and changes” in their fields today.

Journalist and author Fareed Zakaria,

host of CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS

and a former Belfer Center Interna- Peace proposal? Diana Buttu, fellow with the Belfer Center’s Middle East Initiative (MEI), discusses the Palestinian bid tional Security Program research fel- for statehood at a Harvard Kennedy School event hosted by MEI Director Hilary Rantisi (left). low, has been selected as Harvard’s 2012 Commencement speaker. 12 Resources • Science, Technology, and Public Policy • Diplomacy and International Politics

d: Views from Center Scholars

the so-called honest broker who’s not so honest to negotiate. If the Palestinians doubt at all. This has put the final nail in the coffin of Netanyahu’s commitment to negotiations let the United States being the honest broker. Now them put him to the test. Having already it’s being seen for what it actually is, which is rejected two dramatic Israeli peace proposals, Israel’s lawyer. The next step depends on what in 2000 and 2008, it is time to learn how to say Abbas does. Is he going to continue to pander to yes to less than 100% of their demands. Make the Americans? Or is he really going to try to believe UN resolutions are not the answer. build up an international coalition that will deal (Comments for this article, October 2011) with this in a very different way to how it’s been Rami G. Khouri dealt with in the past?” Associate, Dubai Initiative (Quoted in “Palestinian statehood goes to UN in key moment for peace process,” The “In the end, all we can judge are the words of Guardian, September 23, 2011) the various parties, because the past week has been a festival of rhetoric above all else. Shai Feldman Nobody has made any substantive moves on Member, Belfer Center Board of Directors; the ground, with even the Palestinian request Director, Crown Center for Middle East Studies, for UN recognition being words on paper that Brandeis University signal intent rather than any tangible accom- “I think from [the Palestinians’] standpoint, it’s plishment. The intent that Abbas has signaled, Beyond Kumbaya: Michal Ben-Josef Hirsch, associate with the Center’s International Security Program (ISP), really an act of frustration. They, in a way, have though, is potentially a game-changer, if he speaks at an ISP brown bag lunch, on the use of symbolic been seeking a negotiated resolution of this sticks to his position and refuses to resume the reparations in the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process. conflict. That does not mean they did not make diplomatic game according to the old rules . . .

mistakes. I think conditioning the negotiations If Abbas persists in refusing to resume negotia- UN legally “upgrades” the Palestinian territo- with this Israeli government on a total con- tions while the Israelis continue their settle- ries, this new status won’t change anything on struction freeze in the settlements was a mis- ment building, this would turn out to be the take. The Palestinian demands should have dramatic change that could have far-reaching the ground—increasing Palestinian despair and the chances of violence. been focused on trying to get the Israeli gov- consequences—but only if several things were ernment to agree to resume negotiations from to happen in the coming months and years.” (Comments for this article, October 2011) where the negotiations ended at the end of the (Comments from “After the Festival of Stephen M. Walt Bush administration and the end of the Olmert Rhetoric,” Agence Global, September 28, 2011) Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of government. In a way, all three parties—the International Affairs Israelis, the Palestinians, the Americans—all James K. Sebenius got sidetracked. . . . I do not think the real Belfer Center Faculty Affiliate; Professor, “[T]he problem with our ‘unwavering’ support drama is at the UN—I think the real drama is Harvard Business School; Director, Harvard for the policies of the Israeli Prime Minister what happens on the street.” Negotiation Project Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is that it rests on a questionable assumption: that the (Comments from “Palestinian leaders seek full Although the statehood bid can be seen as an Palestinians represent the main obstacle to recognition at the United Nations,” Greater alternative route to independence, it is also a peace today. The Palestinians’ and the rest of Boston with Emily Rooney, September 22, 2011) Palestinian negotiating tactic to pressure Israel. It could add legitimacy to the Palestinian state- the Arab World’s unwillingness to recognize the Chuck Freilich hood cause and boost prospects for Palestinians Jewish state may have been the primary road- Senior Fellow, International Security Program to bring actions against Israelis in the Interna- block to peace in the past. But since the Arab The Palestinian bid for recognition in the UN tional Criminal Court. And since a U.S. Secu- League’s March 2002 Beirut Declaration offer- will provide them with a significant diplomatic rity Council veto would be deeply unpopular in ing recognition of Israel in exchange for a achievement, but will not bring them one inch today’s Arab world, the U.S. urgently seeks to Palestinian state and the coming to power in closer to statehood. For that to happen the West avoid it by pressing Israel to be more forthcom- the West Bank of a moderate and effective gov- Bank and Gaza must reunite and the Palestini- ing in direct Palestinian talks. ernment under President Mahmoud Abbas and ans have to agree to return to negotiations. A If these pressures mount, the Palestinian Prime Minister Fayyad Salam, Israel now has… negotiated two-state solution is the only means leadership must judge the point of maximum real partners for peace. Indeed, had the Pales- to a Palestinian state. There are no shortcuts. value to “trade” it—by suspending the bid—for tinians focused their struggle for self-determi- The UN bid is, unfortunately, another among real movement in direct talks with Israel. But nation in the UN 40 years ago, we all would many Palestinian efforts to avoid the painful there are risks. The pressures may prove insuf- have been thrilled.” concessions a negotiated settlement requires. It ficient. The bid may take on a political life of its (Comments from “Swim against the tide: Rec- is infinitely easier to turn to the UN, where an own, “tradeable” only at unacceptable domestic ognize Palestine at the U.N.,” A Realist in an Ide- automatic anti-Israeli majority is assured, than costs to the Palestinian leadership. And if the ological Age, Foreign Policy, September 14, 2011)

13 HOT OFF

THE PRESSES Compiled by Susan Lynch ISP/STPP Militarizing Men: Gender, Conscription, and presents the first comprehensive study on the rise enormous interest coming from policymakers War in Post-Soviet Russia of carbon trading and the role business played in and the media. By Maya Eichler, former Research Fellow, making this policy instrument a central pillar of Demography is the most predictable of the International Security Program/Women and global climate governance. social sciences: children born in the last five Public Policy Program “. . . [T]he author’s goal is not to explain years will be the new workers, voters, soldiers, Stanford University Press (Autumn 2011) climate change outcomes per se, but to and potential insurgents of 2025 and the political elites of the 2050s. Whether in the West or A state’s ability to maintain explain the conditions under which the developing world, political scientists mandatory conscription and business influence made a difference to urgently need to understand the tectonics of wage war rests on the idea that a those outcomes.” demography in order to grasp the full context of “real man” is one who has served “What we gain from reading this book is a today’s political developments. in the military. Yet masculinity clearer understanding of business influence—the has no inherent ties to mili- author’s goal is not to explain climate change Our Own Worst Enemy? Institutional tarism. The link between men outcomes per se, but to explain the conditions Interests and the Proliferation of Nuclear and the military, argues Maya Eichler, must be under which business influence made a difference Weapons Expertise produced and reproduced in order to fill the to those outcomes.” By Sharon Weiner; Belfer Center Studies in ranks, engage in combat, and mobilize the pop- —Virginia Haufler, Department of Govern- International Security ulation behind war. ment and Politics, University of Maryland The MIT Press (October 2011) In the context of Russia’s post-communist transition and the Chechen wars, men’s milita- Civilization: The West and the Rest When the Soviet Union col- rization has been challenged and reinforced. By Niall Ferguson, Member, Belfer Center lapsed in 1991, many observers Eichler uncovers the challenges by exploring Board of Directors feared that terrorists and rogue widespread draft evasion and desertion, anti- states would obtain weapons of The Penguin Press (November 2011) draft and anti-war activism led by soldiers’ mass destruction (WMD) or mothers, and the general lack of popular sup- In Civilization: The West and the knowledge about how to build port for the Chechen wars. However, the book Rest, Niall Ferguson argues that, them from the vast Soviet also identifies channels through which milita- beginning in the fifteenth cen- nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons com- rized gender identities have been reproduced. tury, the West developed six plex. The United States launched a major effort Eichler’s empirical and theoretical study of mas- powerful new concepts that the to prevent former Soviet WMD experts, sud- culinities in international relations applies for Rest lacked: competition, sci- denly without salaries, from peddling their the first time the concept of “militarized mas- ence, the rule of law, con- secrets. In Our Own Worst Enemy, Sharon culinity,” developed by feminist international sumerism, modern medicine, and the work Weiner chronicles the design, implementation, relations scholars, to the case of Russia. ethic. These were the “killer applications” that and evolution of four U.S. programs that were central to this nonproliferation policy and “. . . [F]ills a gap in our understanding allowed the West to leap ahead of the Rest. Yet assesses their successes and failures. of masculinity and regime now, he argues, the days of Western predomi- Weiner examines the parlous state of the for- legitimation strategies.” nance are numbered because the Rest have mer Soviet nuclear, biological, and chemical now downloaded the six killer apps we once “This important and engaging piece of scholarship weapons complex, the contentious domestic monopolized—while the West has literally neatly fills a gap in our understanding of mas- political debate within the United States, and lost faith in itself. culinity and regime legitimation strategies. Eich- most critically, the institutional interests and dynamics of the Defense, State, and Energy ler’s thoroughly researched, multi-methodological Political Demography: How Population departments, which were charged with prevent- study reveals the contested nature of militarized Changes Are Reshaping International ing the spread of WMD expertise. She explains masculinity and its political ramifications.” Security and National Politics —Valerie Sperling, Clark University Edited by Jack A. Goldstone, Eric P. Kaufmann, why—despite unprecedented cooperation former Research Fellow, Initiative on Religion between the former Cold War adversaries—U.S. Carbon Coalitions: Business, Climate in International Affairs/International Security nonproliferation programs did not succeed at Politics, and the Rise of Emissions Trading Program, and Monica Duffy Toft, Associate redirecting or converting to civilian uses signifi- By Jonas Meckling, Research Fellow, Professor of Public Policy cant parts of the former Soviet weapons complex. Geopolitics of Energy Project Paradigm (November 2011) “. . . [A] must-read for scholars, The MIT Press (October 2011) policymakers, and other readers with an The field of political demogra- Over the past decade, carbon interest in . . . why it has been so hard to phy—the politics of population trading has emerged as the control the spread of knowledge about change—is dramatically under- industrialized world’s primary nuclear weapons.” represented in political science. policy response to global climate At a time when demographic “Our Own Worst Enemy? is a must-read for change despite considerable con- changes—aging in the rich scholars, policymakers, and other readers with an troversy. With carbon markets world, youth bulges in the interest in how government decisions get made worth $144 billion in 2009, car- developing world, ethnic and and why it has been so hard to control the spread bon trading represents the largest manifestation religious shifts, migration, and urbanization— of knowledge about nuclear weapons.” of the trend toward market-based environmental are waxing as never before, this neglect is espe- —Cindy Williams, principal research scientist, governance. In Carbon Coalitions, Jonas Meckling cially glaring and starkly contrasts with the Security Studies Program, MIT 14 MacArthur Grant Enriches Managing the Atom Fellowships he Belfer Center’s Project on Managing every setting where they are used. The number Tthe Atom (MTA) has received a major of individuals capable of providing sound grant from the John D. and Catherine T. ideas for improving policies is not keeping MacArthur Foundation to support a fellow- pace,” Bunn said. ship and training program aimed at helping In addition to pursuing their own to prepare the next generation of nuclear pol- research during their stay at Harvard, MTA icy leaders. fellows participate in seminars, issue-focused The four-year $2.2 million grant extends working groups, and professional training and expands the MTA fellowship program, sessions. They also have an opportunity to open to experts from around the world and interact with high-level policy makers and High Value: Robert L. Brown, Stanton Nuclear Security across the academic disciplines. The fellows other experts visiting the Belfer Center and Junior Faculty Fellow with the Project on Managing the conduct policy research and receive training Kennedy School. Atom/International Security Program (MTA/ISP), focused on reducing the risks from nuclear “After their time at Belfer, some of our fel- discusses with Belfer Center faculty and fellows and radiological terrorism, stopping nuclear lows will lead aspects of the development of attributes that make the International Atomic Energy Agency a valuable agent for producing, collecting, and proliferation and reducing nuclear arsenals, their government’s nuclear policies. Others disseminating information on nuclear nonproliferation. and lowering the barriers to safe and secure will provide much-needed independent pol- MTA Executive Director Martin Malin (right) and nuclear energy use. icy analysis in non-governmental settings,” ISP/MTA fellow Sungyeol Choi took part. “Effective policy making depends on peo- said MTA Executive Director Martin Malin. ple who are comfortable grappling with both “This support from the MacArthur Founda- School’s principal research group and fellows the technical and political challenges associ- tion provides the time and space for talented program focused on nuclear policy issues. ated with nuclear energy, nuclear weapons, people from around the world to learn from John P. Holdren established the project and and connections between the two,” said Asso- one another while they sharpen ideas, led the group until 2009, when he accepted ciate Professor Matthew Bunn, the MTA pro- research, and policy proposals for improving the position of White House science advisor. ject’s lead principal investigator. “The need is national and international security.” The project is affiliated with the Belfer Cen- growing for more effective management of Established in 1996, the Project on Man- ter’s programs on Science, Technology, and nuclear technologies and materials in almost aging the Atom is the Harvard Kennedy Public Policy and International Security.

International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary security issues and discusses their conceptual and historical foundations. Vol. 36 No. 2 The journal is edited at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and published quarterly by the fall 2011 MIT Press. Questions may be directed to [email protected].

“Muslim ‘Homegrown’ Terrorism in the United States: How Serious Is prevent humanitarian disaster, manage regional refugees, and ensure stable the Threat?” U.S.-Chinese relations. Civil war or war on the peninsula would only Risa A. Brooks increase these requirements. Despite a surge of arrests in 2009, evidence suggests that Muslim American “India’s Nuclear Odyssey: Implicit Umbrellas, Diplomatic Disappoint- terrorist activity—a phenomenon sometimes referred to as “homegrown” ments, and the Bomb” terrorism—is not on the rise. The 2009 arrest count is likely a combination Andrew B. Kennedy of more aggressive law enforcement and an accident of data: several long- After decades of flirting with nuclear weapons, India finally emerged as a term plots led to arrests in 2009, and many of the plots involved groups, nuclear power in the 1990s. New evidence suggests that India was able to increasing the number of arrests per incident. In addition, many plots have hold off in part because it was able to secure protection through an alternate been detected with the help of inside informants. It is therefore crucial not method: implicit “umbrellas” from superpowers. In the late 1970s, however, to overreact to statistics in a way that could alienate the Muslim community. U.S. support for India waned as it began to improve its relations with Pak- “States in Mind: Evolution, Coalitional Psychology, and istan, and India lost its other major backer with the dissolution of the Soviet International Politics” Union. By the late 1980s, India could no longer protect itself through diplo- Anthony C. Lopez, Rose McDermott, and Michael Bang Peterson matic means, and acquisition of the bomb became an inevitable response to Viewing coalitions through the lens of evolutionary psychology leads to sev- its security needs. eral hypotheses that can help generate important predictions about group “Veto Players, Nuclear Energy, and Nonproliferation: Domestic Institu- behavior. For example, studies show that humans represent coalitions as a tional Barriers to a Japanese Bomb” special category of relatively unreliable individual, which has implications for Jacques E.C. Hymans theories on conflict and cooperation among states. The study of psychologi- Although Japanese politicians have expressed interest in the bomb in the cal mechanisms also indicates that factors such as a man’s strength, whether past, the country’s veto players make acquisition unlikely. Early research or not a woman has children, and the size of a coalition can help predict viewed proliferation exclusively as a response to security needs. Since the whether or not an individual will support an aggressive foreign policy. 1980s, most models have included domestic factors, but they have focused “The Collapse of North Korea: Military Missions and Requirements” exclusively on a single actor whose influence can be negated if veto power is Bruce W. Bennett and Jennifer Lind widely enough dispersed. Thus, despite Japan’s intimidating plutonium sup- The upcoming transition in North Korea’s leadership will not inevitably ply, and its persistence in building a complete fuel cycle, the country’s large bring about a collapse of government, but the potential consequences of and growing number of veto players suggests the continuation of a rigid such an event necessitate advance and combined planning. It is imperative nuclear weapons policy. As this analysis indicates, historical institutional that China, South Korea, and the United States develop a coordinated analysis is crucial to understanding a state’s propensity for proliferation and response, as each of these countries could take destabilizing action to pro- should be considered alongside other contributing factors. tect their individual interests. A relatively benign collapse could require 260,000 to 400,000 troops to gain control of North Korea’s nuclear weapons, Compiled by International Security staff.

15 Nonproﬁt Org. U. S. Postage PAID The Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Nashua, NH Science and International Affairs Permit No. 375 Graham Allison, Director 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, MA 02138 Tel: 617-495-1400 • Fax: 617-495-8963 www.belfercenter.org Belfer Center Newsletter Editor: Sharon Wilke, Associate Director, Communications, [email protected] James Smith, Director, Communications [email protected] Traci Farrell, Communications Assistant [email protected] The Belfer Center has a dual mission: (1) to provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge The Communications Office was assisted in production of this newsletter by Meredith Blake, Dominic Contreras, about the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues where science, tech- Emily Hough, Joseph Leahy, and Susan Lynch. nology, environmental policy, and international affairs intersect; and (2) to prepare future generations of Photographs: All photos courtesy of the Belfer Center unless leaders for these arenas. otherwise noted. Visit our website at www.belfercenter.org to learn more about the Belfer Center. BELFER IN BRIEF Harvard Service and Honors Focus on Cyber Sean Lynn-Jones, editor of the Belfer Center’s International Security Joseph S. Nye, Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor, Journal, was honored at a Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) event in co-chaired with former National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft a June for 20 years of service to Harvard and the Belfer Center; Kather- summer study of cyber security at the Aspen Strategy Group ine (Katie) Gordon, project coordinator for Agricultural Innovation in in Colorado. Africa, and Zachary Tumin, special project assistant with the Science, Technology, and Public Policy program, were recognized for five years of service. Neal Doyle, former program coordinator for the project on Managing the Atom (MTA), received the Dean’s Award for his outstanding contributions to HKS and MTA. Lovita Strain, Belfer Center financial associate, received a Kennedy School All Star Award for her outstanding assistance and support to Belfer Center International Global Affairs (IGA) student fellows. Tolu Odumosu, research fellow with the Science, Technology, and Pub- lic Policy program, was honored in October with a Harvard University Center Congratulations: Belfer Center Director Graham Allison (left) hosted a Certificate of Distinction in Teaching award for his “excellent” teaching reception to celebrate the recent marriage of Niall Ferguson (right), a member of the Belfer Center Board of Directors, and Ayaan Hirsi Ali (2nd from right). Harvard of an “Introduction to Technology and Society” class last spring. Law School Professor Charles Freid (2nd from left) joined in the celebration. Leading Edge Ali Wyne, a Belfer Center research assistant, delivered the welcome address at this year’s St. Gallen Symposium in Switzerland. The Sym- posium is a leading global platform for dialogue on key issues in management, the entrepreneurial environment and interfaces between business, politics, and civil society. New Arrival Congratulations to Michael Sechrist, project manager with the Explo- rations in Cyber International Relations initiative, and his wife, Diana, on the recent arrival of daughter Genevieve Sechrist. Public Service in Action: The Belfer Center’s Courtney Anderson (left) and Sarah Kneezle took part in a weekend of service in Vermont to help with flood recovery in Research and Policy the aftermath of Hurricane Irene. Organized by Harvard Kennedy School’s Student Laura Diaz Anadon, director of the Energy Technology Innovation Public Service Collaborative, the Center ambassadors presented Vermont towns Policy research group, presented on “Changing Roles of Government with the Belfer Center’s guidebook “Lessons from Katrina” with suggestions for a and Research” at a plenary session of the U.S. Association of Energy community’s post-disaster redevelopment based on the successful recovery efforts Economics conference in Washington, D.C. in October. of New Orleans’ Broadmoor neighborhood. 16 P Printed on recycled paper.