Government Formation in Multi-Level Settings Comparative Territorial Politics Series editors: Charlie Jeffery, Professor of Politics, School of Social and Political Science, Uni- versity of Edinburgh, UK. Michael Keating, Professor of Politics, University of Aberdeen, UK. Territorial politics is one of the most dynamic areas in contemporary political science. Devolution, regional government and federal reform have reshaped the architecture of government at sub-state and transnational levels, with profound implications for public policy, political competition, democracy and the nature of political community. Important policy fields such as health, education, agri- culture, environment and economic development are managed at new spatial levels. Regions, stateless nations and metropolitan areas have become political arenas, contested by old and new political parties and interest groups. 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Titles include: Alain-G Gagnon and Michael Keating (editors) POLITICAL AUTONOMY AND DIVIDED SOCIETIES Imagining Democratic Alternatives in Complex Settings Michel Seymour and Alain-G Gagnon (editors) MULTINATIONAL FEDERALISM Problems and Prospects IrinaStefuriuc ¸ GOVERNMENT FORMATION IN MULTI-LEVEL SETTINGS Party Strategy and Institutional Constraints The Comparative Territorial Politics series Series Standing Order ISBN 978–0230–29293–2 (outside North America only) You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a standing order. Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to us at the address below with your name and address, the title of the series and the ISBN quoted above. Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, England Government Formation in Multi-Level Settings Party Strategy and Institutional Constraints IrinaStefuriuc ¸ Senior Researcher, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium ©Irina¸Stefuriuc 2013 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2013 978-0-230-30083-5 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, Saffron House, 6–10 Kirby Street, London EC1N 8TS. Any person who does any unauthorized act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted her right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. First published 2013 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN Palgrave Macmillan in the UK is an imprint of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan in the US is a division of St Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries. ISBN 978-1-349-33652-4 ISBN 978-1-137-30074-4 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781137300744 This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. 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A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. 10987654321 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 Contents List of Figures and Tables vi Acknowledgements viii List of Party Acronyms x Introduction 1 1 Towards a Theory of Coalition Formation in Multi-Level Settings 10 2 Research Design – Concepts, Methods and Country Selection 33 3 Multi-Level Polities – Institutions, Decision-Making, Parties and Party Systems 41 4 Regional Coalition Governments in Spain and Germany – A Statistical Exploration 68 5 Sub-National Coalition Formation as a Multi-Level Game 89 6 Coalition Formation – The Process 100 7 Conclusions – Sub-National Coalition Formation in Multi-Level Settings 133 Appendix A: List of Governments Included in the Conditional Logit Analysis (Only Real Governments Listed) 152 Appendix B: Additional Tables 155 Notes 158 References 168 Index 179 v Figures and Tables Figures 6.1 Basque Country 2005: party policy positions in a two-dimensional policy space 105 6.2 Asturias 2003: party policy positions on the left-right dimension 110 6.3 North Rhine-Westphalia 2005: party policy positions in a two-dimensional space 113 6.4 Berlin 2006: party policy positions in a two-dimensional policy space 116 6.5 Catalonia 2003: party positions in a two-dimensional policy space 122 6.6 Canary Islands 2005: party policy positions on the left-right dimension 127 6.7 Mecklenburg-West Pomerania 2006: party policy positions in a two-dimensional policy space 130 Tables 3.1 Timing of national and regional elections in Spain (1982–2008) 46 3.2 Timing of federal and Land elections in Germany (1990–2008) 48 3.3 National election results Spain (1977–2008) – concentration of electoral results by party type 54 3.4 Regional elections in Spain: concentration of results by party type and the electoral dissimilarity index (1980–2006) 55 3.5 National government composition and support parties in Spain (1979–2008) 56 3.6 Federal election results in Germany (1990–2005) – concentration of electoral results by party type 59 3.7 Regional elections in Germany: concentration of results by party type and the electoral dissimilarity index (1990–2006) 60 vi List of Figures and Tables vii 4.1 Determinants of coalition formation: office, policy and incumbency 74 4.2 Spain and Germany compared: minimal winning and ideological connectedness 77 4.3 Spain and Germany compared: the median legislator and incumbency 80 4.4 Classical variables and coalition formation: how many correct predictions? 83 4.5 Determinants of minority governments 86 5.1 Frequency of different coalition types 94 5.2 Coalition formation as a multi-level game 96 6.1 Classification of governments for case studies 102 7.1 The composition of regional governments in Scotland and Wales, 1999–2011 146 B1.1 Government composition in Germany (1990–2006) 156 B1.2 Government composition in Spain (1982–2007) 157 Acknowledgements This book is the result of research at the Department of Political Science of the Vrije Universiteit Brussels (VUB), carried out with the generous funding of the ‘GOA’ Concerted Research Action project ‘Politics beyond the state’ and the Inter-University Attraction Pole project PARTIREP (Political participation and representation in modern democracies). My gratitude first goes to Kris Deschouwer, who has guided me in the way a wise father looks after his child: I had to find the way on my own, but he was always there when I stumbled. I cannot imagine this project reaching fruition without his advice and encouragement. Three other faculty members – Patrick Stouthuysen, Theo Jans and Michel Huysseune – have also been patient listeners and good advis- ers over the years. Those who have been my fellow researchers either in Brussels (especially Martine Van Assche, Pieterjan De Vlieger, Christine Mahoney, Irina Tanasescu, Ionut Sasu, Jo Buelens, Koen Marchand and Sam Depauw) or in Barcelona, where I spent three fruitful months as a visiting researcher at the Pompeu Fabra University (Sunnee Billingsley, Andreu Orte and David Rivas), were wonderful colleagues with whom I shared many inspiring thoughts. Thank you all for your guidance and friendship. I am also indebted to everyone I interviewed. The interviews were undoubtedly the most fascinating task of the whole research process. I am thankful for the kindness with which politicians and public offi- cials, as well as a handful of academic experts, took the time to talk to me about coalition formation. Over the years I presented various stages of this research at con- ferences and workshops. Numerous scholars I met on these occasions provided me with valuable feedback. Although there were many more than can be mentioned here, my thanks go to Elodie Fabre, Tània Verge, Marc Debus, Wilfried Swenden, Richard Katz, Peter Mair, Mariano Torcal, Francesc Pallarés, Kerstin Hamann, Bonnie Field, Josep Colomer, Patrick Dumont, Hanna Bäck, Josep Reniu, Lori Thorlakson, Pieter van Houten, Marco Steenbergen, Ferdinand Müller-Rommel, Eve Hepburn, Oscar Rodríguez and José Adrián García for their precious comments and support. viii Acknowledgements ix I would also like to thank a host of people who are special for various reasons: Gábor Tóka and Zsolt Enyedi from the Central European Uni- versity, for stirring my appetite for political science research, and Marina Popescu, for taking the challenge of co-authoring with me when I was still a novice. Thanks to my mother, Aida Vo¸stinaru, and to my brother, Victor Nechifor, for being such dedicated supporters and giving me the courage to pursue this project to its end. And finally, my very special thanks go to my son. Even before you were born, you gave me such a tremendous amount of energy and con- fidence that the completion of this project seemed like a piece of cake. Four years later, you were still patiently sharing your mom with this and (too many) other work projects. Thank you, Matei Desmedt, for filling my heart with serenity and joy.