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Morning Focus March 19, 2018 KOREA Morning Focus Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Hanwha Techwin (012450/Buy/TP: W37,400) KOSPI 2,493.97 1.59 0.06 Cheap valuation vs. uncertainties KOSPI 200 322.88 0.14 0.04 KOSDAQ 894.43 4.00 0.45 Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Volume Value KOSPI 372,335 6,391 KOSPI 200 74,341 4,746 KOSDAQ 797,854 5,611 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,656,858 KOSDAQ 287,884 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 2,171 2,070 100 Institutional 1,145 1,235 -89 Retail 3,059 3,059 0 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 776 667 109 Institutional 194 265 -70 Retail 4,643 4,666 -23 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,997 1,873 124 KOSDAQ 453 382 71 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 438 377 72 KOSDAQ 574 581 100 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 2,557,000 -20,000 615 Hynix 89,800 200 443 Celltrion 324,000 1,500 440 KODEX LEVERAGE 17,255 -80 275 KODEX KOSDAQ150 24,760 170 222 LEVERAGE KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value NATURECELL 62,200 8,200 404 Diostech 40,600 2,550 356 SillaJen 119,100 2,200 313 TELCON 14,800 1,800 176 Celltrion Healthcare 109,200 1,000 113 Note: As of March 16, 2018 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research This document is a summary of a report prepared by Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) and published on our website. Please review the compliance notices contained in the original report. Information and opinions contained herein have been compiled in good faith from sources deemed to be reliable. However, the information has not been independently verified. Mirae Asset Daewoo makes no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Mirae Asset Daewoo accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for informational purposes only. It is not and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This document may not be reproduced, further distributed or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Hanwha Techwin (012450 KS) Cheap valuation vs. uncertainties Technology Investors taking note of cheap valuation, but also earnings/business structure uncertainties Results Comment March 19, 2018 We recently held foreign investor meetings on Hanwha Techwin. Many investors took note of the company’s low valuation, which currently stands at a 2018F P/B of just 0.8x, in line with the levels seen in 2015, during the ownership transition from Samsung to Hanwha group. But investors also expressed concerns over some uncertainties, including those surrounding earnings. (Maintain) Buy 1) Aircraft engine/parts: In 2015, Hanwha Techwin signed a risk and revenue sharing Target Price(12M, W) 37,400 program (RSP) deal (2.3% stake) with Pratt & Whitney to jointly develop geared turbofan engines (GTF). While the program has promising long-term potential, the Share Price (03/16/18, W) 29,250 problem is that, in the short term, it only incurs costs. RSP expenses ballooned from W7.2bn in 2016 to W48.9bn in 2017 and are expected to grow further to W90bn in Expected Return 28% 2019. 2) Security camera: Revenue from the security camera business grew to W719.3bn in 2013 following the acquisition of Samsung Electronics’ (SEC) CCTV business, but it has OP (17F, Wbn) 83 since declined (W580bn in 2017). OP margin, which was once around 20%, has also Consensus OP (17F, Wbn) 84 slipped into negative territory (-6.4% in 2017). What’s more worrying is that all of this EPS Growth (17F, %) - happened despite the company’s restructuring efforts. Market EPS Growth (17F, %) 45.2 The second source of uncertainty is business structure. In April 2017, Hanwha Techwin P/E (17F, x) - spun off its existing businesses into Hanwha Land Systems, Hanwha Power Systems, Market P/E (17F, x) 10.4 Hanwha Precision Machinery, Hanwha Defense, and Hanwha Systems. In February KOSPI 2,493.97 2018, the company announced plans to spin off its security camera business and Market Cap (Wbn) 1,539 instead focus on the aircraft engine/parts business, renaming itself Hanwha Shares Outstanding (mn) 53 Aerospace. While the move will allow for more independent/accountable management (and while an IPO would be good for cash flow), a lot of uncertainties remain over how Free Float (%) 67.1 the situation will unfold. Foreign Ownership (%) 12.8 Beta (12M) 1.14 Limited prospects of earnings recovery; Security camera business will be key 52-Week Low 27,250 For 1Q18, we expect revenue of W822.2bn (+6.2% YoY, -46.5% QoQ) and operating 52-Week High 53,100 profit of W2.8bn (-75.2% YoY, -94.0% QoQ). Earnings should be weighed down by: 1) a (%) 1M 6M 12M decline in defense-related earnings; and 2) continued sluggishness in security cameras Absolute 5.8 -22.2 -36.1 and aircraft engine/parts. We think the company could even record an operating loss Relative 2.7 -25.6 -44.9 due to RSP expenses. 130 Hanwha Techwin KOSPI Maintain Buy and TP of W37,400 110 While valuation is indeed cheap, we do not see any meaningful earnings recovery in 90 the near term. RSP is a promising business from a long-term perspective, but not all investors are in it for the long haul. We believe a recovery in security camera earnings 70 and more clarification on RSP and the subsidiary structure is needed. In light of the 50 stock’s cheap valuation, we maintain our Buy rating and target price of W37,400. 3.17 7.17 11.17 3.18 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Telecom Equipment/Electronic FY (Dec.) 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F 12/19F Components] Revenue (Wbn) 2,616 2,613 3,519 4,215 4,283 4,598 Wonjae Park OP (Wbn) 8 -60 151 83 69 137 +822-3774-1426 OP margin (%) 0.3 -2.3 4.3 2.0 1.6 3.0 [email protected] NP (Wbn) -119 6 345 -48 40 95 SeungHo Yoo EPS (W) -2,236 108 6,498 -913 773 1,824 +822-3774-1832 ROE (%) -7.1 0.3 15.1 -2.1 1.9 4.2 [email protected] P/E (x) - 329.2 6.7 - 37.9 16.0 P/B (x) 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. March 19, 2018 Hanwha Techwin Earnings and forecasts Table 1. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, %p) 2017P 2018F 1Q18F 2016 2017P 2018F 1Q 2Q 3Q 4QP 1QF 2QF 3QF 4QF YoY QoQ Revenue 774.3 1,036.3 868.6 1,536.2 822.2 999.4 1,160.2 1,301.6 3,518.8 4,215.4 4,283.4 6.2 -46.5 CCTV 136.7 168.1 143.5 136.2 123.0 142.9 157.9 147.1 637.8 584.5 570.9 -10.0 -9.7 Engine/energy equip. 221.2 234.6 213.3 271.2 199.1 210.0 266.6 217.0 1,050.7 940.3 892.6 -10.0 -26.6 Hanwha Power Systems 23.5 67.7 36.6 72.0 47.0 47.4 54.9 68.4 197.1 199.8 217.7 100.0 -34.7 Hanwha Precision Machinery 55.9 73.1 56.3 68.1 64.7 71.2 81.8 77.7 169.3 253.4 295.4 15.7 -5.0 Hanwha Systems 134.6 153.0 150.3 385.5 154.2 185.0 203.5 285.0 217.3 823.4 827.7 14.6 -60.0 Hanwha Land Systems 110.5 187.7 149.8 323.4 129.4 168.2 201.8 282.5 714.4 771.4 781.9 17.1 -60.0 Hanwha Defense 92.0 152.1 129.5 296.7 118.7 188.6 207.4 238.5 532.0 670.3 753.2 29.1 -60.0 Operating profit 11.2 23.2 2.2 46.3 2.8 9.8 29.3 27.4 150.7 82.9 69.2 -75.2 -94.0 CCTV -0.1 -3.7 -10.3 -23.2 -12.3 -14.3 -12.6 -7.4 33.7 -37.3 -46.6 RR RR Engine/energy equip. 12.6 5.2 -1.3 -20.5 -2.0 -4.2 7.5 -6.5 58.0 -4.0 -5.2 TTR RR Hanwha Power Systems -7.1 -2.2 -0.7 6.5 1.4 1.4 1.1 3.1 -12.8 -3.5 7.0 TTB -78.3 Hanwha Precision Machinery 3.7 10.0 4.1 3.3 3.3 4.6 5.9 4.4 -15.4 21.2 18.2 -11.9 0.0 Hanwha Systems -1.5 -1.8 2.2 25.4 2.3 2.8 5.1 10.0 13.5 24.3 20.2 TTB -90.9 Hanwha Land Systems 1.3 9.9 2.6 44.9 10.3 14.3 16.1 15.5 38.6 58.7 56.3 709.6 -77.0 Hanwha Defense 2.3 5.8 9.4 14.4 3.9 9.3 10.4 12.5 35.1 31.9 36.1 67.8 -73.2 OP margin 1.4 2.2 0.3 3.0 0.3 1.0 2.5 2.1 4.3 2.0 1.6 -1.1 -2.7 Pretax profit 5.9 19.1 -10.1 3.0 0.4 3.2 24.2 19.7 418.5 17.8 47.5 -92.8 -85.8 Net profit 9.9 17.1 -17.6 -57.7 0.4 2.7 20.6 16.8 345.2 -48.2 40.4 -96.4 TTB Pretax margin 0.8 1.8 -1.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 2.1 1.5 11.9 0.4 1.1 -0.7 -0.1 Net margin 1.3 1.7 -2.0 -3.8 0.0 0.3 1.8 1.3 9.8 -1.1 0.9 -1.3 3.8 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Figure 1.
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