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Monthly Insight a Spring Cold Spell

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Monthly Insight a Spring Cold Spell April 2018 Monthly InsighT A spring cold spell Wonjae Park Chuljoong Kim +822-3774-1426 +822-3774-1464 [email protected] [email protected] Young-gun Kim SeungHo Yoo +822-3774-1583 +822-3774-1832 [email protected] [email protected] Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. Contents I. Investment strategy .......................................... 3 II. Top picks ........................................................... 8 III. Sector view ....................................................... 10 IV. Think big ......................................................... 15 V. Global IT navigation ...................................... 22 Spotlight stocks & other notable stocks …………….… 25 2| Monthly InsighT Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Investment strategy Strong demand for semiconductors/passive components and home appliances/TVs vs. sluggish smartphone sales, declining panel prices, and won appreciation II. Top picks III. Sector view IV. Think big V. Global IT navigation Spotlight stocks & other notable stocks 3| Monthly InsighT Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Investment strategy Mirae Asset Daewoo IT universe share performance March: -0.7% for spotlight stocks and +7.7% for other notable stocks Monthly InsighT cumulative returns Cumulative returns Avg. of spotlight stocks -0.7 Avg. of spotlight stocks 106.3 SKC Kolon PI 14.6 Avg. of other notable stocks -31.0 KOSPI 18.2 Samsung SDI 12.6 KOSDAQ 52.8 (%) -100 0 100 200 LGE 9.6 Note: September 2014 – March 2018 Humax 2.2 -1Y Avg. of spotlight stocks 14.9 LG Innotek -4.5 Avg. of other notable stocks 14.1 KOSPI 13.2 Innox Advanced Materials -10.2 KOSDAQ 40.7 (%) -20-100 1020304050 LGD -12.4 Note: April 2017-March 2018 SSC -17.0 March Avg. of spotlight stocks -0.7 Avg. of other notable stocks 7.7 Avg. of other notable stocks 7.7 Hanwha Techwin 1.5 KOSPI 0.8 1.6 SEMCO 13.9 KOSDAQ (%) -20246810 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 4| Monthly InsighT Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Investment strategy Strong demand for semiconductors/passive components and home appliances/TVs vs. sluggish smartphone sales, declining panel prices, and won appreciation ■ IT sector update Share performance & OP consensus revision rates for Korean IT large caps - Display: Panel prices remained on the decline in March, but are projected to stabilize (%) gradually in 2Q-3Q; valuation re-ratings are expected for OLED suppliers, given the (%) prospects for earnings recovery in 2H and robust demand for foldables/OLED TVs. 8 Share performance (1M, L) 1Q OP consensus revision rate (R) 25 - Handsets/components: iPhone X shipments have been disappointing; expectations on the Galaxy S9 have been lowered. - Consumption will become increasingly polarized, with the sales mixes of high-priced 4 0 products, including home appliances and TVs, likely to remain on the rise. - Companies continue to search for new growth drivers. Chipmakers/passive 0 -25 component suppliers should benefit. - F/X trends are viewed as a headwind for 1Q18 earnings (1Q18 average US$/W rate of 1,072.3 vs. 4Q17 average of 1,107.3) -4 -50 ■ Strategy LG SEMCO LGE Hanwha SSC LGD SEC SK Hynix Samsung 1) Semiconductor supply/demand conditions are expected to be more positive than Innotek Techwin SDI expected: The valuation trend is worth tracking amid upward revisions to consensus earnings. 2) Solid OLED TV sales: Relevant supply chain will likely be re-rated. 3) Concerns over iPhone X weakness have already been priced in; we prefer OLED materials suppliers that are likely to post solid 1Q18 earnings. Source: WISEfn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4) We prefer passive components/home appliances/TV suppliers with robust earnings prospects and small/mid-cap stocks with improving earnings. ■ Spotlight stocks - LGE, Samsung SDI, LGD, SEMCO, Innox Advanced Materials, Humax Korean IT large caps (W, %, x) Current Share performance P/E P/B ROE Company Rating TP Upside price (3/30) 1W 1M 17 18F 17 18F 17 18F LGE Buy 147,000 109,500 34.2 2.8 9.6 10.3 8.9 1.3 1.1 13.4 13.3 LGD Buy 40,000 26,150 53.0 -0.4 -12.4 15.0 9.0 0.6 0.6 4.3 6.7 Samsung SDI Buy 270,000 192,500 40.3 -3.5 12.6 15.5 11.7 1.1 1.0 7.5 9.2 SEMCO Buy 134,000 105,500 27.0 4.5 13.9 19.4 16.1 1.7 1.5 9.4 10.2 LG Innotek Buy 167,000 126,000 32.5 5.0 -4.6 11.5 8.9 1.4 1.2 12.5 14.1 SSC Buy 29,100 19,800 47.0 0.8 -17.0 16.0 13.3 1.6 1.5 11.1 11.7 Hanwha Techwin Buy 37,400 29,600 26.4 1.9 1.5 32.4 19.8 0.7 0.7 2.2 3.5 SEC - 2,461,000 -1.0 4.6 7.5 7.4 1.3 1.2 21.0 18.2 SK Hynix - 81,300 -2.2 5.9 4.2 4.6 1.2 1.0 34.6 24.4 Note: 2018 SEC and SK Hynix data are consensus estimates; 2017 Hanwha Techwin data are based on estimates. Source: WISEfn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 5| Monthly InsighT Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Investment strategy Earnings forecast revisions for large-cap IT plays (Wbn, %) Previous Revised % chg. Notes 1Q18F 2018F 2019F 1Q18F 2018F 2019F 1Q18F 2018F 2019F LGE Revenue 16,018 68,663 74,877 16,050 69,904 76,451 0.2 1.8 2.1 OP 922 3,473 4,199 1,024 3,672 4,400 11.1 5.7 4.8 Strong OLED TV sales NP 795 2,239 2,736 678 2,381 2,876 -14.7 6.3 5.1 LGD Revenue 6,387 27,287 31,022 6,335 27,043 30,071 -0.8 -0.9 -3.1 OP 95 1,044 2,095 -37 521 1,346 TTR -50.1 -35.8 Declining panel prices NP 54 751 1,534 -60 346 977 TTR -53.9 -36.3 Samsung SDI Revenue 1,939 8,317 9,513 1,939 8,317 9,513 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 81 491 690 81 491 690 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 175 946 1,086 175 946 1,086 0.0 0.0 0.0 SEMCO Revenue 1,873 7,948 8,650 1,873 7,948 8,650 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 132 553 619 132 553 619 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 71 303 350 71 303 350 0.0 0.0 0.0 LG Innotek Revenue 2,022 8,528 9,033 1,806 8,157 8,655 -10.7 -4.4 -4.2 OP 84 410 424 36 321 390 -57.1 -21.7 -8.0 Sluggish iPhone X shipments NP 55 265 271 18 196 244 -67.3 -26.0 -10.0 SSC Revenue 282 1,270 1,551 282 1,270 1,551 0.0 0.0 0.0 OP 22 109 134 17 104 128 -22.7 -4.6 -4.5 Won appreciation NP 14 71 89 9 66 84 -35.7 -7.0 -5.6 Hanwha Revenue 822 4,283 4,598 822 4,283 4,598 0.0 0.0 0.0 Techwin OP 2.8 69 137 2.8 69 137 0.0 0.0 0.0 NP 0.440950.440950.0 0.0 0.0 SEC Revenue 61,070 260,657 269,979 61,494 261,257 270,723 0.7 0.2 0.3 (Consensus) OP 14,595 63,301 63,774 14,694 63,131 63,924 0.7 -0.3 0.2 NP 10,845 47,898 48,565 10,852 47,850 48,687 0.1 -0.1 0.3 SK Hynix Revenue 8,780 37,632 38,617 8,800 38,001 39,059 0.2 1.0 1.1 (Consensus) OP 4,342 17,702 16,321 4,373 18,138 16,742 0.7 2.5 2.6 NP 3,258 13,651 12,612 3,300 14,011 12,961 1.3 2.6 2.8 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6| Monthly InsighT Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I. Investment strategy Consensus vs. Mirae Asset Daewoo estimates (Wbn, %) Mirae Asset Daewoo Consensus % diff. Notes 1Q18F 2018F 2019F 1Q18F 2018F 2019F 1Q18F 2018F 2019F LGE Revenue 16,050 69,904 76,451 15,322 65,612 69,473 4.8 6.5 10.0 OP 1,024 3,672 4,400 849 3,134 3,493 20.6 17.2 26.0 Solid TV sales NP 678 2,381 2,876 472 1,923 2,215 43.6 23.8 29.8 LGD Revenue 6,335 27,043 30,071 6,128 26,075 27,488 3.4 3.7 9.4 OP -37 521 1,346 70 937 1,533 TTR -44.4 -12.2 Declining panel prices NP -60 346 977 50 625 1,045 TTR -44.6 -6.5 Samsung SDI Revenue 1,939 8,317 9,513 1,882 8,003 9,119 3.0 3.9 4.3 OP 81 491 690 71 425 619 14.1 15.5 11.5 NP 175 946 1,086 158 876 1,154 10.8 8.0 -5.9 SEMCO Revenue 1,873 7,948 8,650 1,910 8,122 8,962 -1.9 -2.1 -3.5 OP 132 553 619 136 645 773 -2.9 -14.3 -19.9 Lackluster Galaxy S9 shipments NP 71 303 350 87 422 509 -18.4 -28.2 -31.2 LG Innotek Revenue 1,806 8,157 8,655 1,915 8,729 9,628 -5.7 -6.6 -10.1 OP 36 321 390 56 401 499 -35.7 -20.0 -21.8 Lackluster iPhone X shipments NP 18 196 244 37 260 334 -51.4 -24.6 -26.9 SSC Revenue 282 1,270 1,551 278 1212 1334 1.4 4.8 16.3 OP 17 104 128 21 108 127 -19.0 -3.7 0.8 NP 9 66 84 15 72 87 -40.0 -8.3 -3.4 Hanwha Revenue 822 4,283 4,598 876 4,377 4,617 -6.2 -2.1 -0.4 Techwin OP 2.8 69 137 3 87 126 -6.7 -20.7 8.7 NP 0.4 40 95 -2 48 79 - -16.7 20.3 SEC Revenue - - - 61,494 261,257 270,723 --- OP - - - 14,694 63,131 63,924 --- NP - - - 10,852 47,850 48,687 --- SK Hynix Revenue - - - 8,800 38,001 39,059 --- OP - - - 4,373 18,138 16,742 --- NP - - - 3,300 14,011 12,961 --- Source: WISEfn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 7| Monthly InsighT Mirae Asset Daewoo Research I.
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