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KOREA Morning Focus December 14, 2017 KOREA Morning Focus Company News & Analysis Major Indices Close Chg Chg (%) Hanwha Corp. (000880/Buy/TP: W56,000) Upgrade rating & Present TP ' KOSPI 2,480.55 19.55 0.79 Earnings to improve on Hanwha E&C s normalization KOSPI 200 326.18 2.11 0.65 KOSDAQ 772.22 11.82 1.55 Sector News & Analysis Turnover ('000 shares, Wbn) Non-ferrous metals (Overweight) Volume Value Impact of Glencore’s zinc production restart KOSPI 251,104 5,028 KOSPI 200 89,459 4,107 KOSDAQ 1,131,049 5,394 Market Cap (Wbn) Value KOSPI 1,613,324 KOSDAQ 274,605 KOSPI Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 1,443 1,648 -205 Institutional 1,585 886 698 Retail 1,945 2,461 -515 KOSDAQ Turnover (Wbn) Buy Sell Net Foreign 412 324 88 Institutional 285 192 93 Retail 4,695 4,869 -174 Program Buy / Sell (Wbn) Buy Sell Net KOSPI 1,513 1,206 307 KOSDAQ 206 120 86 Advances & Declines Advances Declines Unchanged KOSPI 566 244 67 KOSDAQ 733 408 100 KOSPI Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value Samsung Electronics 2,566,000 -39,000 570 Hynix 76,800 -1,000 265 KODEX KOSDAQ150 LEVERAGE 17,680 280 191 NCsoft 488,000 22,000 189 KODEX 200 32,670 255 160 KOSDAQ Top 5 Most Active Stocks by Value (Wbn) Price (W) Chg (W) Value SillaJen 89,100 1,100 319 New Pride 4,850 145 263 Celltrion Healthcare 93,100 6,100 231 TissueGene(Reg.S) 54,100 4,300 225 Celltrion 210,000 4,400 205 Note: As of December 13, 2017 Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Hanwha Corp. (000880 KS) Earnings to improve on Hanwha E&C’s normalization Holding Companies Upgrade to Buy and Present TP of W56,000 We upgrade our rating on Hanwha Corp. to Buy (from Hold) and present a target price Company Update of W56,000. Our target price reflects our expectations on the profit growth of the in- December 14, 2017 house business and Hanwha E&C’s operating earnings normalization in 2018. Hanwha Corp.’s stock appreciated 48% earlier in the year on the anticipated earnings recovery of Hanwha E&C (its wholly-owned subsidiary). Since then, however, the stock has given back most of its gains, as overseas losses at the construction company reemerged in 2Q-3Q17. (Upgrade) Buy Looking ahead, we expect Hanwha E&C’s overseas uncertainties to dissipate in 4Q17 Target Price(12M, W) ▲ and operating earnings to normalize in 2018, as the company has already booked the 56,000 maximum amount of losses that could potentially arise from the completion of its overseas plant contracts. From this perspective, we think Hanwha Corp.’s stock is Share Price (12/13/17, W) 41,500 deeply undervalued. The stock is currently trading at a historically high discount of 49% to its NAV and a 2018F P/B of 0.7x. Expected Return 35% Simply put, we believe Hanwha E&C’s overseas plant risk reduction and earnings recovery will help lift Hanwha Corp.’s consolidated earnings and net asset value, leading to a significant reduction in the stock’s valuation discount and an upturn in OP (17F, Wbn) 2,256 share prices. Consensus OP (17F, Wbn) - ‘Hanwha E&C 2018F OP to recover to W207.5bn; Iraqi housing project to get back on track EPS Growth (17F, %) 13.0 1) For 2018, we forecast Hanwha E&C to post revenue of W3.6tr and operating profit of W207.5bn. Market EPS Growth (17F, %) 45.5 P/E (17F, x) 6.0 We believe the biggest earnings contributor will be revenue from the lucrative Iraqi Market P/E (17F, x) 10.1 housing project. Hanwha E&C’s current order backlog stands at W17tr, of which the Iraqi housing project accounts for 50.8%. Ongoing domestic housing projects (which KOSPI 2,480.55 have recently exhibited strong presales) and continued orders from group affiliates (Hanwha Q Cells Korea, Yeochun NCC, etc.) should further support the company’s Market Cap (Wbn) 3,111 operating earnings recovery. Shares Outstanding (mn) 98 Free Float (%) 56.1 2) Additional interim payment to come in December; Iraqi housing project to get back on track in 2018 Foreign Ownership (%) 30.8 Beta (12M) 0.78 Regarding the Iraqi project, Hanwha E&C has kept cost input fairly tight to better 52-Week Low 34,600 manage risks in case of delays in the recovery of interim payments (following the receipt of US$560mn in December 2016). As such, we estimate revenue from the Iraqi 52-Week High 52,000 housing project will decline 4.3% YoY to W397.6bn in 2017 (from W415.7bn in 2016). (%) 1M 6M 12M However, the company is likely to receive an additional interim payment of around Absolute 0.2 -13.5 13.2 W150bn by the end of this month, which should reduce risks and allow the company to Relative 2.3 -17.2 -7.1 step up the pace of the project. We thus see revenue from the Iraqi housing project expanding 41.6% YoY to W563bn in 2018. 160 Hanwha Corp. KOSPI In-house business 2018 OP to grow to W295.5bn; Focus on product 140 development and export expansion to continue 120 We expect Hanwha Corp.’s in-house business to continue earnings growth, led by the explosives, defense, and machinery segments. In particular, the company could see 100 new revenue opportunities from the development of advanced weapons and export expansion through its collaboration with affiliates like Hanwha Techwin. (Hanwha 80 12.16 4.17 8.17 12.17 Group’s goal is to become one of the top 10 global defense players by 2025, with revenue of W12tr and operating profit of W1tr.) Meanwhile, the trading business is likely to experience an overall revenue decline due to restructuring, but margins Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. should slightly improve. [ Holding companies/IT services] FY (Dec.) 12/13 12/14 12/15 12/16 12/17F 12/18F Revenue (Wbn) 38,725 37,457 41,376 47,120 49,761 56,350 Dae-ro Jeong +822-3774-1634 OP (Wbn) 864 516 758 1,686 2,256 2,639 [email protected] OP margin (%) 2.2 1.4 1.8 3.6 4.5 4.7 Su Yeon Lee NP (Wbn) 130 -364 -285 492 673 780 +822-3774-7162 EPS (W) 1,723 -4,831 -3,778 6,082 6,870 7,968 [email protected] ROE (%) 3.0 -8.4 -6.7 11.5 14.5 14.9 P/E (x) 22.1 - - 5.8 6.0 5.2 P/B (x) 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 Dividend yield (%) 1.0 1.6 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.4 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. December 14, 2017 Hanwha Corp. Upgrade to Buy and Present TP of W56,000 We upgrade our rating on Hanwha Corp. to Buy (from Hold) and present a target price of W56,000. Our target price reflects our expectations on the profit growth of the in-house business and Hanwha E&C’s operating earnings normalization in 2018. We expect Hanwha E&C’s overseas uncertainties to dissipate in 4Q17 and operating earnings to normalize in 2018, as the construction company has already booked the maximum amount of losses that could potentially arise from the completion of its overseas plant contracts. From this perspective, we think Hanwha Corp.’s stock is deeply undervalued at current levels. Table 1. Target price calculation (Wbn, W, %) 2017F 2018F Notes 1. Value of in-house businesses 4,118 4,288 Operating value 3,168 3,212 8 x 2017/18F EBITDA 15x based on 30bps brand royalty rate (minus Brand royalties 947 1,072 cost) Real estate 4 4 Book value of real estate investments 2. Value of investment assets 5,243 5,431 Listed subsidiaries 3,559 3,559 Unlisted subsidiaries 1,684 1,872 3. Total asset value (1+2) 9,361 9,718 4. Net borrowings (-) 2,775 2,775 As of end-3Q17 5. NAV (3+4) 6,586 6,943 Discount to NAV 46.4 49.1 Market cap 3,533 3,533 Based on Dec. 13th closing price Shares outstanding (including preferred shares, 6. Share count (‘000 shares) 92,030 92,030 excluding treasury shares) 7. NAV per share 71,561 75,446 8. Theoretical target price 53,671 56,584 2 5% discount to NAV per share Target price 53,000 56,000 Current price 41,500 41,500 Based on Dec. 13th closing price Upside potential 27.7 34.9 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 2. Valuation of investment securities (Wbn) No. of shares Stake Book value Market price 2017F 2018F Notes Listed subsidiaries 3,559 3,559 Dec. 13th closing Hanwha Life 157,600,000 18.2% 914 7,250 1,143 1,143 Hanwha Chemical 59,545,978 36.8% 972 30,200 1,798 1,798 Hanwha Techwin 17,189,609 32.4% 825 35,950 618 618 Unlisted subsidiaries 1,684 1,872 Hanwha H&R 5,864,847 50.6% 219 219 219 Book value Hanwha E&C 28,000,000 100.0% 1,259 1,259 1,447 Fair value Other 206 206 206 Book value Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 3.
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