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Calwater Science Plan Updated: 6 July 2010

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Calwater Science Plan Updated: 6 July 2010 CalWater Science Plan Updated: 6 July 2010 CalWater Science Plan Executive Summary 1.0 Introduction 1.1 CalWater’s Science Drivers 1.1.1 Challenges of Changing Climate 1.1.2 California’s Water Resources Management Goals 1.1.3 NOAA’s Strategic Goals and Mission Requirements 1.2 CalWater History 1.3 Executive Overview of CalWater Science Plan 2.0 CalWater Science Plan 2.1 Overarching Goals and Objectives 2.2 Implementation Strategy 2.2.1 CalWater Participating Agencies and Organizations 2.2.2 CalWater Management Council 2.2.3 CalWater Science Team 2.2.4 Timeline 2.3 Operating Plan 2.3.1 Communication 2.3.2 General Timeline and Milestones 3.0 CalWater Cross-cutting Strategies 3.1 Overview 3.2 Observation Systems 3.3 Numerical Modeling 3.4 Intensive Observing Period (IOP) Planning and Execution 3.5 Coordination with Other Programs, e.g., HMT, EFREP, Unmanned aircraft systems (Manta – Scripps/NOAA; Global Hawk – NASA/NOAA) 4.0 CalWater Major Activity Areas and Projects 4.1 Overview 4.2 Atmospheric Rivers 4.2.1 Hypotheses 4.2.2 Background Science 4.2.3 Experimental Design - Approach and Tasks 4.2.3.1 Field Study 4.2.3.2 AR Structure 4.2.3.3 Downscaling Approaches for ARs 4.2.3.4 Uncertainty in Reanalysis and IPCC Models 4.2.3.5 AR Precipitation Subprocesses 4.2.3.6 Tropical-Extratropical Interactions 4.3 Aerosols Impact on Precipitation 4.3.1 Hypotheses 4.3.2 Background Science 4.3.3 Experimental Design - Approach and Tasks 4.3.3.1 Field Study 4.3.3.2 Aerosol Precipitation Mechanisms 1 of 1 CalWater Science Plan Updated: 6 July 2010 4.3.3.3 Numerical Modeling Integration 4.3.3.4 Effect of Black Carbon on Mountain Snow Packs 5.0 Schedule and Milestones 6.0 Budget 7.0 References 8.0 Appendices Appendix A: Acronyms Appendix B: CalWater Bibliography Appendix C: Observing Systems Descriptions Appendix D: Numerical Models Descriptions Appendix E: Synopsis of CalWater Major Activities for 2009 Appendix F: White Papers Appendix G: Previous meeting reports 2 of 2 CalWater Science Plan Updated: 6 July 2010 List of Participants Gary Wick NOAA ESRL/PSD [email protected] Allen White NOAA ESRL/PSD [email protected] Paul Neiman NOAA ESRL/PSD [email protected] Mimi Hughes NOAA ESRL/PSD [email protected] Marty Ralph NOAA ESRL/PSD [email protected] Duane Waliser JPL [email protected] John Helly (CMMAP) SIO/SOSC/UCSD [email protected] Mike Dettinger SIO/USGS [email protected] Dan Cayan SIO/USGS [email protected] Bin Guan UCLA/JPL [email protected] Jinwan Kim UCLA [email protected] Park Williams UCSB [email protected] David Kingsmill CU/ NOAA ESRL/PSD [email protected] Luc Lenain SIO/UCSD [email protected] Ruby Leung PNNL [email protected] Jim Means SIO [email protected] Joe O’Hagan CEC [email protected] Christopher Williams CU/ NOAA ESRL/PSD [email protected] Tapash Das SIO/UCSD [email protected] Kei Yoshimura SIO/UCSD [email protected] Yucheng Song (by phone) NOAA/NWS/NCEP [email protected] Sandra Yuter North Carolina State Univ. [email protected] Allen B White <[email protected]>, Bin Guan <[email protected]>, "Christopher R. Williams" <[email protected]>, Dan Cayan <[email protected]>, David Kingsmill <[email protected]>, Duane Waliser <[email protected]>, Gary A Wick <[email protected]>, George N Kiladis <[email protected]>, Guido Franco <[email protected]>, [email protected], Jinwan Kim <[email protected]>, Jim Means <[email protected]>, Joe O'Hagan <[email protected]>, Joe O'Hagan <[email protected]>, John Helly <[email protected]>, Kei Yoshimura <[email protected]>, Beat Schmid <[email protected]>, Marty Ralph <[email protected]>, 3 of 3 CalWater Science Plan Updated: 6 July 2010 Mike Dettinger <[email protected]>, Mimi Hughes <[email protected]>, Park Williams <[email protected]>, Paul J Neiman <[email protected]>, Ruby Leung <[email protected]>, Sandra Yuter <[email protected]>, Tapash Das <[email protected]>, [email protected], Steve Cliff <[email protected]>, Odelle Hadley <[email protected]>, Kim Prather <[email protected]>, Daniel Rosenfeld <[email protected]>, Thomas Painter <[email protected]>, Thanos Nenes <[email protected]>, Paul DeMott <[email protected]>, Dan Cziczo <[email protected]>, Greg Roberts <[email protected]>, "Tom K." <[email protected]>, Lynn Johnson <[email protected]>, Ellen Sukovich <[email protected]>, Rob Cifelli [email protected] 4 of 4 CalWater Science Plan Updated: 6 July 2010 Executive Summary 5 of 5 CalWater Science Plan Updated: 6 July 2010 1.0 Introduction 1.1 CalWater’s Science Drivers 1.1.1 Atmospheric Rivers and the CalWater Project Atmospheric rivers (ARs) - constantly moving, narrow bands of intense water vapor transport through the lower atmosphere - play a critical role in the global hydrologic cycle. When ARs impinge on California coast and Sierra Mountains during the winter storm season they contribute major portions of the state’s annual water budget, supply renewable hydropower energy generation and often prompt extreme flood events. Figure 1 illustrates an example of a strong AR seen in SSM/I satellite data stretching across Pacific to Central California; the event resulted in greater than 15 inches rainfall in one day. Figure 1 Example of a strong AR seen in SSM/I satellite data stretching across Pacific to Central California Understanding AR characteristics and impacts are critical for water management policy decisions. Figure 2 illustrates the contributions of AR days to total precipitation for water years 1998 to 2006; 25-50% of total annual rainfall was associated with AR days in much of California. In addition to the AR precipitation phenomenon, there is a need to understand the influence of changing aerosol contents on AR precipitation amounts and distribution. In particular, identifying any potential changes in event frequency and severity in a changing climate is essential because of the implications to water supply, flood control, and extreme storms. 6 of 6 CalWater Science Plan Updated: 6 July 2010 Figure 2 AR events contribute major portions of total annual rainfall to regions along the US Pacific Coast This CalWater Science Plan documents a collaborative research effort to define the contribution of atmospheric rivers to the total precipitation and its distribution, the impact of aerosols on atmospheric rivers, uncertainties in the total water vapor budget of atmospheric rivers, relationships between atmospheric rivers and climate indices and climate change, and the contribution of atmospheric rivers to black carbon transport and deposition. 1.1.2 Challenges of Changing Climate Climate change poses additional challenges for California water management due to the potential changes in the annual water budget and for increased severity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. Most climate projections fall within a fairly narrow range of precipitation changes in much of the US. In Northern California; "small change" is the most common projection (Dettinger 2005; Figure 3). However, as with Arctic Pack Ice projections from IPCC (Figure 4) it is unclear that the current models capture the full range of uncertainty in annual precipitation. 7 of 7 CalWater Science Plan Updated: 6 July 2010 Figure 3 Projected trends in annual precipitation by an ensemble of climate change models indicate a small change in annual precipitation in northern California. Figure 4 Uncertainty of climate model projections is illustrated for Arctic Sea ice extent which is observed to be decreasing at a faster rate than predicted. Courtesy J. Stroeve - personal communication And even with no change in annual totals, the extreme events (storms/droughts) are expected to increase. A statistical summary of climate change models’ projections of extreme precipitation events indicates a trend towards increasing frequency of flood 8 of 8 CalWater Science Plan Updated: 6 July 2010 worthy storms during the winter season (Dec-Jan-Feb). Currently there are about 6 extreme precipitation days and the climate change projections indicate perhaps 9 extreme events per year in 2100, a 50 percent increase by the year 2100 (Figure 5). Figure 5 Climate change models project an increased frequency of extreme precipitation events during the winter storm season in California. (Courtesy Mike Dettinger, Scripps Institute of Oceanography) Regardless of the climate change models there are indications that the flood frequency characteristics of California’s rivers are changing. As an example, tabulation of the annual maximum daily flows for the American River basin for the period 1905 – 2005 show that the top 8 daily maximum flows have occurred since 1950 and the largest of record occurred in 1997 (Figure 6). 9 of 9 CalWater Science Plan Updated: 6 July 2010 Figure 6 Tabulation of annual maximum daily flows for the American River above the Folsom Dam site indicate an increased frequency of extreme floods since the 1950’s. (Courtesy Lester Snow, CA-DWR) 1.1.3 California’s Water Resources Management Goals As noted in the California Water Plan (CDWR 2009) the State is facing one of the most significant water crises in its history—one that is hitting hard because it has so many aspects. Growing population and reduced water supplies are worsening the effects of a multi-year drought. Climate change is reducing snowpack storage and increasing floods. There is a need to act proactively to provide integrated, reliable, and secure water resources and management systems for our health, economy, and ecosystems.
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