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Judul Artikel : “Urbanization and Increasing Flood Risk in the Northern Coast of Central -: An Assessment Towards Better Land Use Policy and Flood Management” Kode Naskah : C.4 Nama Jurnal : Land Penerbit : MDPI

No Kegiatan Tanggal Lampiran pendukung 1. Submitted to the 6 Juni 2020 - Submission received (e- mail) journal “LAND” - Naskah awal 8 Juni 2020 - Assistant editor assigned (-e-mail) - APC confirmation (e-mail) - Additional word version (e-mail) 2. Editor Decision – 1: 30 Juni 2020 - Invitation to revise (-e-mail) encourages resubmission after revision Reviewer 1 Reviewer 2 Reviewer 3 3. 1st Revised Version 14 Agustus 2020 - Submission received (e- mail) Submitted/Resubmission - Naskah perbaikan v1 17 Agustus 2020 - Assistant editor assigned (-e-mail) - APC confirmation (e-mail) 24 Agustus 2020 - Request point-by-point responses (e-mail) - Point-by-point responses to reviewers (v1) 4. Editor Decision – 2: 16 September 2020 - Minor revision confirmation (e-mail) Minor revision 17 September 2020 - Revision request reminder (e-mail) Reviewer 1 Reviewer 2 Reviewer 3 5. 2nd Revised Version 19 September 2020 - Submission received (e-mail) Submitted - Naskah perbaikan v2 - Respon to reviewer v2 6. Journal Announcement: 21 September 2020 - Paper accepted confirmation (e-mail) Accepted 23 September 2020 - Paper has been published (e-mail) 9 Oktober 2020 - Paper has been published – final version (e-mail)

Wiwandari Handayani

[Land] Manuscript ID: land-843822 - Submission Received 1 message

Editorial Office 6 June 2020 at 21:53 Reply-To: [email protected] To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Wiwandari Handayani , Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri

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Journal name: Land Manuscript ID: land-843822 Type of manuscript: Article Title: Urbanization and Floods in the Northern Coast of : Towards A Responsive Land Use Policy at the River Basin Level Authors: Wiwandari Handayani, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto, Intan Hapsari Surya Putri Received: 6 June 2020 E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Land, Women, Youths, and Land Tools or Methods https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/special_issues/land_women

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1 Article 2 Urbanization and Floods in the Northern Coast of 3 Central Java: Towards A Responsive Land Use Policy 4 at the River Basin Level

5 Wiwandari Handayani 1, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu 2,*, Iwan Rudiarto 1 and Intan Hapsari Surya 6 Putri 1

7 1 Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Diponegoro University, Semarang 50275, Indonesia; 8 [email protected] (W.H.); [email protected] (I.R.); 9 [email protected] (I.H.S.P.) 10 2 Chair of Land management, Faculty of Aerospace and Geodesy, Technical University of Munich (TUM), 11 80333 Munich, Germany; [email protected] (U.E.C.) 12 * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +49-(0)89-289-22518 (U.E.C.); 13 [email protected] (W.H.)

14 Received: date; Accepted: date; Published: date

15 Abstract: The issue of flood regarding urbanization is complicated as flood risk is identified based 16 on water system delineation. Water flows without recourse to administrative jurisdictions while 17 spatial planning (which is used to control urbanization) is administered with recourse to 18 administrative boundaries. This study aims to explore urbanization and flood events in the northern 19 coast of Central Java by using river basin as the basis of unit analysis. Urbanization is represented 20 by the land conversion from non-built-up to built-up area based on the premise that population 21 growth requires more land consumption which results in rapid urban expansion. Spatial analysis 22 was applied to investigate land conversion and flood events at the up-, mid-, and downstream of 23 four river basin areas by using Landsat data 2009 and 2018 in combination with GIS-based data 24 analyses. Findings show that urbanization, indicated from the growth rate of the built-up area, is 25 very significant. Besides, land conversion has been expanding from the downstream to the upstream 26 due to changing rain and flood patterns. Proper land use planning and control of the river basin 27 level is an essential instrument for safeguarding urban areas (such as the case study area), and the 28 whole of Java in Indonesia. The emerging discussion indicate that flood phenomena is a 29 consequence of urbanization and river basin interactions; and river basins have dual spatial identity 30 in the urban system (policy and land-use related). It also shows that problematizing urbanizing river 31 basins is an opportunity for an eco-based approach to tackling the urban flood crises.

32 Keywords: Central Java; flood; Indonesia; land use; land-use change; river basins; urban areas; 33 urbanization 34

35 1. Introduction 36 Flood is one of the most frequent disasters happening across the globe [1-4]. Rapid urbanization 37 in low-lying areas creates a higher exposure to various types of floods in addition to the increase of 38 coastal flooding caused by sea-level rise and changing rainfall patterns due to climate change [5-9]. 39 Land subsidence appears as another big issue. It is the densification of the coastal area is not followed 40 by a proper water supply system. Furthermore, sprawling phenomena (which happens due to urban 41 extension) also contributes to the increase in flood events. This happens when the land conversion 42 expands, not only by concentrating in the downstream but also by taking place in the upstream area. 43 For land-use change to accommodate the needs and activities of the growing urban populations, it 44 leads to changes in the hydrological system which then result in dangerous floods [10]. Deng et al.

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45 [11] (p. 1341) and Chin [12] (p. 469) assert that urbanization is a significant contributor to the changing 46 of the river system and structure as it usually increases flood risk. 47 The issue of flood and urbanization is complicated. Flood risk is identified based on water 48 system delineation. The delineation is mostly defined based on water (river) flow pattern that is 49 gravity-driven and following landscape ecology, which is then formed as a river basin [13]. 50 Accordingly, a river basin is usually characterized by a land area that consists of various types of 51 land use and a number of watersheds that drains from upstream to the downstream area [14]. 52 Apparently, water flows without recourse to administrative jurisdictions while spatial planning (i.e. 53 land use policy) to control urbanization are examined based on the administrative jurisdiction. In 54 Indonesia, it is common that river basins are in more than one administrative boundary or local 55 government authority. This means that a river basin can be found within and outside the local 56 authority that is responsible for river management. It, therefore, creates a challenge in the land use 57 planning, and in developing controlling mechanisms for river management. 58 The water cycle has particular characteristics that are connected to types of land use across local 59 government administrative boundaries. This is important because flood does not happen in a void. 60 “It can only happen within ecosystems” — “be it water, forest, air or the physical soil” [15] (p. 176). 61 Consequently, land use planning — being “a culmination of all activities and decisions concerned 62 with guiding the allocation and use of land in patterns that enable improvements in peoples’ way of 63 living—is a crucial process for mitigating floods [16] (p. 8). From a natural resource or environmental 64 perspective, land use planning provides the opportunity to conduct a systematic assessment of land 65 and water potentials and identify options to improve flood-prone areas and mitigate floods 66 occurrences [17]. Land use planning is crucial for identifying the critical elements in a hydrological 67 system (which includes water flow and infiltration). It is relevant because hydrological systems are 68 very much influenced by the pervious surface of land areas [18,19]. Therefore, there is a strong 69 connection between water system performance and land-use changes. It is also important to note that 70 water flow and availability are very much related to types and rates of soil erosion in the upstream, 71 which then creates deposit materials in the downstream. Hegger et al. [20] proposes flood risk 72 prevention to decreasing the exposure of people/property through spatial planning as a critical 73 approach on Flood Risk Management (FRM). Flood risk prevention is very vital in the flood 74 adaptation cycle. It relates to the capacity to transform and adapt long-term perspectives of 75 addressing disturbance in achieving a more sustainable urbanization [21]. 76 Recent studies in various parts of Asia show a significant connection between urbanization (that 77 is influenced by land-use change) and flooding events [20-25]. Chen et al. [22] investigated the 78 connection of population growth and land-use changes in relation to natural hazards events in China. 79 They found that the Pearl River Basin is increasingly exposed to floods because of rising population 80 growth and land conversion. Song et al. [23] assessed water level dynamics in the Yangtze River Delta 81 because of precipitation and urbanization and linked it to the increasing flood risk. Focusing on 82 drainage adaptation, Zhou et al. [24] revealed that land-use changes in Northern China exacerbated 83 increase in the surface runoff due to flooding caused by poor planning on the drainage system. Zope 84 et al. [25] have investigated Land Use-Land Cover (LULC) change in Oshiwara river basin in 85 Mumbai-India and revealed that increase in LULC changes leads to a corresponding increase in flood 86 events. Suriya and Mudgal [10], based on a case study at Thirusoolam watershed in Chennai, further 87 emphasized the importance of integrated flood management to minimize the negative impact of 88 land-use change on increasing flood. Evidence from Miller and Douglass’ [2] arguments in their 89 edited book, Disaster Governance in Urbanizing Asia, show that urbanization has been a leading 90 factor in the exposure of human settlements to floods and vulnerabilities of various forms. All the 91 studies mentioned above have influenced this study to infer that controlling urbanization and 92 enhancing flood management cannot be executed in isolation from their connections to urbanization 93 (in an urban area). It needs to be treated as full (not a partial) element of the whole urban system at 94 the regional level. After all, most “sites of intense urbanization are prone to natural hazards - such as 95 flood, landslide, drought, and tidal flood” in Indonesia [26] (p. 287). It is, therefore, pertinent to Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 23

96 investigate how to tackle natural hazards that emanate from urbanization-linked river basins 97 comprehensively. 98 This study aims to explore urbanization and flood events in the northern coast of Central Java 99 by using river basin as the basis of unit analysis. Urbanization is represented by the land conversion 100 from non-built-up to built-up area based on the premise that population growth requires more land 101 consumption that results in rapid urban expansion [27]. It is also susceptible to pluvial flooding (takes 102 place because of urban densification that is not supported by a proper drainage system) and fluvial 103 flooding (flood that happens when a river cannot accommodate rainfall). Both types of floods take 104 place in Semarang because of urban growth and extensive land conversion in the upstream area. 105 Apart from the introduction and conclusion (first and fifth or last sections), the study is divided into 106 three sections. The next (second) section is a description of the study area and the methods used in 107 this study. It then presents the results (third section) of the analyses which are divided into two sub- 108 sections. These include results that explain the land-use changes and those that describe the flood 109 events in the study area. The fourth section discusses the issues emerging from the results, with focus 110 on the importance of understanding the spatial distribution of the flood events and the changing 111 urban and rural status at the river basins.

112 2. Materials and Methods

113 2.1. Study Area 114 Java Island is the most populous island in Indonesia. The number of inhabitants reach 60% of 115 the total Indonesian population while the area is only less than 7% of the total Indonesian areas [28]. 116 According to the Presidential Decree [29], the Island has around 1.200 watersheds and 24 river basins. 117 Some of those basins are considered as National Strategic River Basins — meaning that the basin has 118 strategic socioeconomic and environmental functions to be preserved. The study area is located in 119 the mid-northern part of the Island (see Figure 1), which consists of four river basins. Most of the area 120 include the Central Java Province which stretches through several local government authorities (or 121 municipalities) that are categorized as either regencies or cities. The existence of arterial and toll roads 122 in the northern corridor has been a leading infrastructural boost to the rapid economic development 123 of the area. Accordingly, some emerging issues are threatening the functions of the river basins 124 mostly triggered by uncontrolled population growth that results in the reduction of the non-built-up 125 area because of land conversion from forest and agriculture to settlement and industrial uses. As 126 shown in the results of the study, the land conversion has been influencing the water cycle, which is 127 evidenced by changing rainfall patterns and increasing floods in the area. 128 The total area of the river basins is 16.403 sq. km. The location of the river basins cuts across four 129 cities (Tegal, Pekalongan, Semarang, and Salatiga) and 17 regencies (Brebes, Tegal, Pemalang, Pekalongan, 130 Batang, Kendal, Temanggung, Demak, Jepara, Kudus, Pati, Rembang, Blora, Grobogan, Sragen, and Boyolali, 131 Semarang). Table 1 explains the main features of the basins, namely Pemali-Comal, Bodri Kuto, Wiso 132 Gelis, and Jratunseluna basin. Jratunseluna is the biggest river basin in the study area. It is a National 133 Strategic River Basin with several vital functions and a significant number of people living in the 134 basin area. Jratunseluna river basin flows across two cities (Semarang and Salatiga) and ten regencies 135 with 69 watersheds. On the contrary, Wiso-Gelis is the smallest river basin which cuts across only one 136 regency (named Jepara), covering much smaller areas compared to Jratunseluna that is 663 sq. km. The 137 other river basins are the Pemali basin which is located in five regencies (Brebes, Tegal, 138 Pemalang, Pekalongan, and Batang) with a total of 32 watersheds; and Bodri-Kuto with the smallest 139 number of watersheds compared to the three other river basins (12 watersheds). Bodri Kuto River 140 Basin covers the entire administrative area of the Kendal Regency, part of the administrative area of 141 Batang Regency, Semarang City, Semarang Regency, and Temanggung Regency. Indeed, proper 142 governance/institutional setting are very crucial in managing the basins considering that the river 143 basin areas are not administratively based. 144 Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 23

145 Table 1. River Basin in the Northern Coast of Central Java Territorial River Basin Area (sq. km) Watershed Area of Jurisdiction 10 Regencies, 2 Cities Jratunseluna 9.216 69 (2.231 Villages/Kelurahans) 1 Regency Wiso-Gelis 663 27 (92 Villages/Kelurahans) 3 Regencies Bodri-Kuto 1.662 12 (396 Villages/Kelurahans) 4 Regencies, 2 Cities Pemali-Comal 4.860 32 (961 Villages/Kelurahans) 146 *Kelurahan is a village that is located in cities

147

148 Figure 1. Study Area 149 150 At the regional level, the study area is located between two big urban agglomerations. There is 151 a mega-urban agglomeration of DKI , the capital city of Indonesia (on the western side) and 152 Surabaya Metropolitan, on the eastern part. Both areas are in the downstream of the most dynamic 153 river basins in the Island, the -Cisadane and Bengawan Solo. These river basins are bigger in 154 comparison to the other four basins in the study area. To illustrate, Ciliwung-Cisadane with the total 155 catchment area of 5.200 sq. km has around 25.1 million inhabitants, and the area of Bengawan Solo, the Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 23

156 biggest river basin in the Island is 20.000 sq. km with 15.9 million people living there. Meanwhile, the 157 Jratun-Seluna basin (as the biggest river basin in the study area) is 9.216 sq. km, with a total population 158 of 8.92 million people. With a more sizeable area and a relatively smaller urban population living in 159 the basins, it is expected that the river basin could be better managed and controlled.

160 2.2 Methods of Data Collection

161 2.1.1. Spatial Data 162 Remote sensing data was used to produce Land-Use-Land Cover (LULC) map of 2009 and 2018 163 with a resolution of 30 x 30 m to assess the land use-land cover change in the upstream-downstream 164 areas of Central Java. Meanwhile, slope and elevation data were processed from terrain data to define 165 the characteristics of each river basin. Table 2 explains detail of spatial data that were processed for 166 the analysis. 167 168 Table 2. Spatial Data Collection Data No Name of Data Year Type Source Format Landsat Satellite 2009 and 1 Primary Image United States Image 2018 Geological Survey 2 Slope 2014 Primary DEM (USGS) 3 Elevation 2014 Primary DEM Presidential Decree No. 12/2012 4 Watershed delineation 2018 Secondary SHP Ministry of Environment and Forestry

169 2.1.2. Urban and Rural Classification Data 170 Rural and urban areas are classified based on administrative jurisdiction in combination with 171 Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) criteria as well as consideration of the direction of built-up area 172 expansion. There are five classifications: Two classifications of urban areas based on administrative 173 jurisdiction, rural-urban area that is defined based on CBS criteria, rural-urban potential, and rural 174 area (see Table 3). 175 To further comprehend the classification explained in Table 3, it is important to note that village 176 is the lowest administrative jurisdiction in Indonesia. Accordingly, there are several types of villages 177 based on its rural and urban status. The first is the villages also called desa, which are located in 178 regencies and characterized as rural. The second are the villages called kelurahan which are 179 categorized as urban villages. So, kelurahan are the villages that are located in cities. Thirdly, there is 180 also classification to show villages that are characterized as urban, based on several criteria from CBS, 181 but still referred to as desa instead of kelurahan. These are the villages called rural-urban area. Another 182 essential differentiation of desa and kelurahan is that the local people elect the head of desa while the 183 head of kelurahan is appointed by the mayors or regents who are government employees. Despite 184 differentiation of village and urban village, there are also two types of urban villages. The first is 185 urban villages that are located in the urban area as a single (or autonomous) city. The second is the 186 urban villages that acts as the capital of a regency. An urban area in a regency does not have the 187 authority to manage the area as it is under the authority of the local government at the regency level. 188 189 Table 3. Rural and Urban Classification No Classification Delineation Urban – as an 1 Jurisdiction based on government regulation autonomous area Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 23

Urban – capital of 2 regency CBS scoring result [30] based on census data 2010 that is calculated according to selected variables including population density, Rural – urban percentage of farming households, percentage of households 3 (village with urban served by electricity, percentage of households served by characteristic) telephone network, access to main urban facilities, and access to supporting facilities (also explained in [7]) Neighboring villages classified as rural-urban area in 2010 that has Rural - urban built-up area more than 28.6% in 2018 (the number is based on the 4 potential average of built-up in the rural-urban area in 2010 (classification no. 3). 5 Rural The rest of the area

190 2.1.3. Disaster Data 191 The primary data source for flood events is Disaster Management Board (DMB) of Central Java 192 Province. According to DMB, based on Law concerning Disaster Management [31], flood is an event 193 or condition where an area or land is submerged due to increased water volume. There is also flash 194 flood defined as fluvial flood that comes suddenly with a large water discharge caused by a river 195 flow obstruction in the river channel. The DMB flood data is a compilation data based on reports 196 from local (Cities/Regencies) government informing the location (name of villages/kelurahans), 197 duration, height, and damages/loss status. However, not all local government report the disaster 198 events as that is not an obligatory procedure to do. Accordingly, this study also investigated data on 199 flood events that were published by mass media websites or other institutions and used them to 200 validate the formal data released by the government. The internet-based data were collected using 201 specific three keywords in the web search done in Google search engine. The three keywords include 202 flood, name of the district or city concerned, and the year incidents occur. 203 Data collection on flood events was done by looking for news articles that contain information 204 about the location of the flood (sub-district and villages or kelurahans), time of occurrence, inundation 205 height, the time needed for inundation to recede (inundation duration), and the magnitude of the 206 impact or loss due to flooding. Information search regarding flood events in regencies/cities and the 207 specified year were deemed to be completed whenever the search engine (Google) detects that no 208 articles related to the keywords were found. 209 The news reports on flood events from 2014 to 2018 were collected, totaling 1936 from 210 approximately 96 sources, including mass media or institutions website. The total number of flood 211 events was 1648, of which 1458 were reported by one news source (single rapporteur) while the rest 212 were reported by more than one news source (joint rapporteur). Table 4 explains the number of total 213 incidents reported from five sources which give the largest contribution in disaster news. Formal 214 government report only covers around 55% of the total incidents, showing that there is still a 215 significant number of incidents that happens but not formally reported to the authorized 216 government. 217 218 Table 4. Largest Contribution of Flood Data Sources Sources Total Incidents Reported Contributions (%) Formal Government Report Disaster Management Board 1025 55.32 of Central Java Province Online Newspapers Tribune News 73 3.77 Kompas 69 3.56 Merdeka 46 2.37 Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 23

Sources Total Incidents Reported Contributions (%) Media Indonesia 46 2.17

219 2.2 Methods of Data Analyses 220 Figure 2 explains the method used in analyzing data for this study. There are two types of 221 analysis, spatial data analysis and non-spatial data analysis. The spatial analysis focused on assessing 222 Land Use-Land Cover (LULC) change based on Landsat Imagery, and Digital Elevation Model 223 (DEM) data processing to classify the up-, mid-, and down-stream area. The non-spatial data (i.e. 224 rural-urban classification and flood event) was utilized as the attributes to be overlaid with the result 225 of spatial data analyses. Figure 2 illustrates detail steps of analyses. 226 The classification of land use -cover is based on the Indonesian National Standard Regulation 227 [32], which then summarized into five types of LULC. They are built-up, industry, rice fields, forest, 228 and mix plantations (see Table 5). The technique used to classify the land cover imagery is a 229 supervised classification which involved determining the training sample by using Maximum 230 Likelihood Classification in ArcGIS. This tool produced tentative LULC which needs further check for 231 the accuracy. Accordingly, the accuracy of interpretation testing was done through field 232 observations, using the instrument conformity table. The accuracy test was carried out at 306 233 observation points. The results of the accuracy-test were then used as a basis for improving the 234 interpretation of the LULC.

235 236 Figure 2. Flow Chart of The Methods for Analysis 237 238 The variables used in classifying the upstream, midstream, and downstream areas include the 239 slope, elevation, and the dominant land cover type. The upstream is the area with the slope level of 240 15% and located at >500 m asl, midstream is located at the slope of 8-15% and 200-500 m asl, and 241 downstream is located at the slope of <8% and 200 m asl [33-35]. The upstream area is dominated by Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 23

242 forest land cover while the downstream is dominated by built-up areas and rice fields. DEM 2014 243 data was processed to further present elevation and slope with the assumption that there was no 244 significant topographic change between 2014 and the base year of the study. Data on land cover types 245 were obtained through analysis done in the initial stage. As illustrated in Figure 2, the result of spatial 246 data analysis was then overlaid with two data attributes at the village level; i.e. rural-urban 247 classification, and flood events. The step was combining urban-rural classification data (as explained 248 in Table 5) and flood events with river basin classification and land-use change 2009-2018. 249 250 Table 5. Land Use Classification in Study Area Land use type Description Built-up - Land covered by buildings, dominated by grey color, are likely to cluster Settlements and/or following road network. Built-up - Industry Land covered by big buildings, dominated by light grey/white color, are likely to cluster and/or following road network. Rice fields Land for agricultural with or without slopping terraces, dominated by light green color, mostly characterized as dike pattern with a smooth texture Forest Forest area formed by natural forest as well as forest developed by humans, covered by approximately 75% of trees, dominated by dark green color and rough texture. Mix Plantation Different types of vegetation with various density, the color and texture are in between rice fields and forest. 251 Source: Authors, developed from SNI 7645 (2010)

252 3. Results or Outcomes

253 3.1 Land Use Change in the Northern Coast of Java 2009-2018 254 There has been a significant urban expansion taking place in the Northern Coast of Java. Table 255 3 explains the land conversion growth rate in each river basin based on its geographical location. All 256 river basins experience a higher growth rate of land conversion in the upstream and midstream 257 compared to land conversion in the downstream. Bodri-Kuto River Basin experienced the highest 258 growth rate, followed by Pemali-Comal, Jratunseluna, and Wiso-Gelis, respectively. As illustrated in 259 Figure 3, the urban centers within most of the basins located in the downstream has been quite dense 260 and compact for various built-up uses in the earlier period, and accordingly urban expansion is 261 extended to the direction of the upstream and midstream even though there is more vacant land 262 available for use. Toll road development and establishment of industrial zones have very much 263 influenced the growth and direction of land conversion. To illustrate, the land allocation for industrial 264 lands in Bodri-Kuto increased significantly, from less than 10 sq. km up to more than 60 sq. km. This 265 is then followed by the expansion of residential and commercial activities in the surrounding area for 266 accommodating the employees of the industry’s needs. 267 268 Table 6. Land Conversion in the Selected River Basins 2009-2018 Area (sq. km) Average of River Basin 2009 2018 Annual Growth Change (%) Built-Up Built-Up Rate (%) Jratunseluna 1132.8 1257.54 11.01 1.22 Upstream 14.13 20.81 47.28 5.25 Midstream 205.12 313.3 52.74 5.86 Downstream 913.55 923.43 1.08 0.12 Wiso-Gelis 70.7 75.69 7.06 0.78 Upstream 1.78 1.8 1.12 0.12 Midstream 17.45 21.31 22.12 2.45 Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 23

Area (sq. km) Average of River Basin 2009 2018 Annual Growth Change (%) Built-Up Built-Up Rate (%) Downstream 51.47 52.58 2.16 0.24 Bodri-Kuto 112.54 159.14 41.41 4.60 Upstream 9.76 30.2 209.43 23.27 Midstream 13.73 52.15 279.83 31.09 Downstream 74.05 76.79 3.70 0.41 Pemali-Comal 480.52 569.68 18.55 2.06 Upstream 57.54 73.51 27.75 3.08 Midstream 58.59 78.85 34.58 3.84 Downstream 364.39 417.32 14.53 1.61 269

270 271 Figure 3. Land Conversion, 2009-2018 272 273 Each basin has a particular growth rate pattern. The pattern very much depends on how dense 274 the built-up area in the downstream is and how economic activities develop in the midstream and 275 upstream. The built-up area in Jratunseluna has expanded from 1132.8 to 1257.5 sq. km from 2009 to 276 2018. Most of the expansion has taken place in the midstream area, which is about 52.74%. The built- 277 up expansion also occurred in Pemali-Comal River Basin (around 18%) over the nine years. The growth 278 of the built-up area in Wiso-Gelis was significantly higher in the midstream area (22.12%) than in the 279 upstream (1.12%) and downstream (2.16%) areas. This scenario is indicative that urbanization that 280 substantially happens in the study area [7] has led to a significant land conversion that expanded up 281 to the upstream (which is supposed to function as a water infiltration zone). On the governance side, 282 administrative autonomy which has devolved authority to local government in land use allocation, 283 has left the land conversion uncontrolled due to a lack of coordination among local governments in 284 the downstream, midstream, and upstream area. Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 23

285 Figure 4 illustrates the land-use changes in several types of land allocation. Rice field, forest and 286 mix plantation land allocation are still dominant all over the river basins. However, there was 287 considerable loss of mix plantation land in most of the river basins, except in Jratunseluna. Bodri-Kuto 288 which had the highest loss of mix plantation (that is up to 42% sq. km between 2009 and 2018), 289 followed by Pemali-Comal (12.66%) and Wiso-Gelis (12.21%). Despite the significant reduction of land 290 for mix plantation, Figure 4 depicts that there was a slight increase in the forest area in Bodri-Kuto and 291 Wiso-Gelis, which reached around 6800 sq. km and 140 sq. km respectively, during the nine years. 292 Growth of forest area in some river basins in Central Java is in line with the enacted regulations from 293 Governor of Central Java [36] and Minister of Environment and Forestry Regulation [37]. The 294 regulation provides evidence that the policy should serve as a strategic instrument in controlling land 295 allocation and better river performance. 296

297 298 Figure 4. Land Use Change in the Selected River Basins, 2009-2018 299 300 The land conversion that has been happening in the study area, eventually, can be expressed in 301 rural or urban terms. Figure 5 illustrates the rural-urban status in each river basin. Increasing built- 302 up areas, especially in some regencies or rural areas, has been encouraging more rural areas to be 303 promoted as rural-urban potential areas and at some point, will become urban areas. Within this 304 scenario, Java Island will become an urban island (whereas built-up area expands from the 305 downstream to the upstream creating problems on the environment) in the nearest future. Based on 306 the built-up ratio of 2018 (which reflects that the total area is categorized as a rural-urban potential 307 area), more than 600,000 inhabitants living there covered approximately 250 villages. This indicates 308 that more rural areas have been urbanized due to the increasing population and built-up area 309 expansion. For example, Pati Regency experienced the highest number of rural-urban potential areas Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 23

310 which is approximately 57 villages, followed by Demak Regency, where 40 villages are potentially 311 categorized as rural-urban area. Both regencies are located at the downstream of Jratunseluna river 312 basin.

313 314 Figure 5. Urban and Rural Classification Map in the Study Area

315 3.2 Flood Events based on River Basins 316 The frequency of flood in the four river basins area fluctuates. It was very high in 2014 and 317 decreased significantly in 2015, and then steadily increased afterwards until 2018. On average, the 318 height of the flood is 20-40 cm (the worst reaches 2 meters). The duration varies as it could happen 319 so fast (less than an hour) but also in worst situations the inundation remains up to more than 24 320 hours. Figure 6 presents the number of floods in the upstream, midstream, and downstream areas of 321 the river basin over the past five years. It was evident that flood dominantly occurs in the 322 downstream area rather than in the upstream and midstream area. Beside any necessary disaster risk 323 reduction initiative that should be taken, the number of flood events is very much influenced by 324 rainfall intensity. Increasing urbanization promotes flooding with excess rainfall due to the increase 325 of the total impervious areas. These phenomena may explain the intense flooding in the downstream 326 area compared to floods in the upstream and midstream. Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 23

500 494

386 400

300 244 248 183 200

100

Number of Flood Events Number ofFlood 22 14 15 2 6 6 9 2 11 6 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year

Upstream Midstream Downstream 327 328 Figure 6. Flood Events in Upstream, Midstream, Downstream 329 in the North Coast of Central Java 2014-2018 330 331 According to Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency – MCGA [38], evidence 332 from nine climatology stations (located in the regencies/cities of Semarang, Tegal, Kudus and Pati), 333 show that high intensity of rainfalls was experienced in 2014. The average rainfall intensity from these 334 nine stations was 2,220 mm/year in 2014, then declined sharply to 1,421 mm/year in 2015. Hence, 335 reducing rainfall intensity in 2015 then led to a decrease in flood events, especially in the downstream 336 area. However, there was an extreme rainfall in 2016, which reached a peak of 2.603 mm/year on 337 average. Accordingly, between 2016 and 2018, the number of flood events in midstream and 338 downstream areas considerably increased. 339 Since 2003, Java Island had a shorter term and higher intensity of rainfall [39]. Research 340 conducted by Siswanto and Supari [40] present that the extreme rainfall event over Java Island is 341 characterized by an irregular pattern which is spatially distributed across the island and is 342 proportional between positive and negative trend with the statistically insignificant dominance in its 343 changing pattern. The western part of Java shows an increasing trend of rainfall while the rest is 344 decreasing. High population density is naturally related to intense urbanization, which results in an 345 increase of the impervious surface and, consequently, in total run-off volumes. Besides that, the 346 geographical location also contributes to increased vulnerability to the rainfall hazard. 347 Figure 7 further illustrates flood events in each river basin. Regarding the biggest river basin, 348 Jratunseluna, it has the highest number of floods compared to other river basins. The flood event 349 concentrates on specific flood-prone area, namely Pati Regency, Demak Regency and Semarang City. 350 The highest frequency of flood events was recorded in Pati Regency with 97 events spread in 59 351 villages. This is followed by Semarang City with 42 incidents spread in 22 kelurahans during 2018. 352 Some villages have been experiencing flood intensively in both districts up to 12 flood events in five 353 years period. Even though floods occur most frequently in downstream areas. However, floods in 354 the midstream area of Jratunseluna considerably increased from 2015 to 2018. Urban extension from 355 the downstream and deforestation in the upstream contribute or play a role in the increasing flood 356 event in the midstream area. As found by Rudiarto et al. [41], deforestation in upland area in Central 357 Java has significantly contributed to the higher level of soil erosion as well as flood events in upstream 358 area. Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of 23

359 360 Figure 7. Flood Events based on River Basin 361 362 Pemali-Comal River Basin has a similar experience as the Jratunseluna River Basin with the 363 number of flood events occurring at its peak in 2014 (up to 205 incidents). Most of the villages on the 364 coast of Pekalongan City, and Tegal City are prone to flood. This is proven by the 365 high number of flood events (see Figure 7). Similar to villages in Jratunseluna, 12 floods were 366 experienced in five years in the most flood-prone villages in this river basin area. The number of flood 367 events in the upstream area of the Pemali-Comal river basin was higher than that of Jratunseluna. It 368 included some areas in the southern part of Brebes Regency and which are located 369 in the highland area. There was a significant growth of the built-up area in the upstream and 370 midstream of Pemali-Comal River Basin, which is about 27% and 34% respectively, followed by a rise 371 in flood events in those areas. 372 With smaller size compared to Jratunseluna and Pemali-Comal, there were fewer flood events in 373 the two river basins of Bodri-Kuto and Wiso-Gelis. In the downstream of Bodri-Kuto, there was a 374 considerable fluctuation of flood events from 2014 to 2017. This then reached its peak of 55 flood 375 events in 2018. It mainly occurred on the north coast of the Kendal Regency, where the highest flood 376 events occurred (13 incidents) at the village level. As noted by Disaster Management Agency [42], 377 flood in Kendal urban area was caused by river runoff and low drainage capacity for water 378 conveyance. 379 Similarly, Wiso-Gelis as the smallest river basin experienced the worst flood in 2014 with a total 380 of 15 incidents in the downstream area. There is an indication that floods occur only occasionally in 381 the midstream and upstream areas of the river basin. Since 2015, Wiso-Gelis River basin showed a 382 negative trend of flooding, following the decreasing number of flood events in the upstream, 383 midstream, and downstream areas. 384 385 386 Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 23

387 4. Discussion and Policy Issues Emerging from The Study 388 The results that emerged from this study have both policy and spatial planning dimensions. 389 They reflect land use dynamics that would depend on policy decisions (and implementations) for 390 improvement. This is imperative because an essential prerequisite in the flood risk management of 391 an area needs to be supported by a sufficient comprehension of the policy situation at the river basin 392 level. Depending on the geographical, cultural or disciplinary perspectives, it is possible to deduce 393 several critical issues evoked by this study. For the sake of a solution-oriented discussion, two issues 394 emerging from this study have been identified. First, the need to create a better understanding of 395 urbanization and flooding phenomena to engender more solution-oriented awareness. This is crucial, 396 especially in countries like Indonesia. This is why the authors have emphasized Indonesia through 397 the use of case studies. Second, there is a need to identify the role governance can play in the flood 398 management processes meant to curb urban flooding. Apart from these, other issues emanating from 399 this study include issues that allude to the role of river basins in urban hydrometeorology (and 400 related subjects); and how problematizing river basins have the potential to result into an approach 401 for dealing with urban flood problems. All of these are discussed in the following sub-sections.

402 4.1 River Basins have Dual Spatial Identity in Urban Systems. They Embrace Policy and Land Use Issues 403 The understanding of river basins dynamics in the urban system is still vague. It is, in most cases, 404 simply viewed as a landscape or an appendage of water bodies [43]. Though it is often used as a point 405 of departure when discussing several issues related to urbanization, it is unduly taken for granted in 406 terms of its functions in the urban system. The analytical aspect of this study offers a renewed 407 systematic way of looking at river basins as a sub-ecosystem embedded within the urban system, and 408 as a concept in the urban discourse. As can be deduced from the case presented in this study (at least 409 in the context of Java), river basins have a dual spatial identity in the urban system. It is both a natural 410 land object, as well as land use. 411 River basins are part of the land because they are sections of the “earth surface with all physical, 412 chemical and biological features” [44] (p. xix). They can be viewed as land object because they are 413 unique embedment to (as well as a natural embodiment of) the physical urban system, and yet are 414 distinguishable in legal (invisible) ecosystems recognized in policies, laws and statutes. In fact, within 415 a land administration system, the river basin can be categorized as a cadastral object as a unique legal 416 entity which can be both fiat (i.e. invisible) and bona fide (i.e. visible). It has a boundary and can be 417 surveyed and can be measured in physical, ecological, socioeconomic, and cultural terms. It can also 418 be viewed as a “property” because it is an embodiment of several “set of rights and a set of duties or 419 obligations” (including interests and privileges) that subsist in the urban land, and which urban 420 people expect to leverage or enjoy [45] (p. 2). A river basin can be the estate of the state or 421 communities (including indigenous peoples). Hence, it has various forms of values attached to it — 422 including ecological, economic, political, cultural, social, touristic, aesthetic, and other urban 423 functional values. As a result of these, the river basin should be viewed as land meant to be 424 administered, managed, and controlled to ensure that it fulfils its function within the urban system. 425 In this regard, the floods emanating from the effect of river basins are consequences (of the river basin 426 and urban relationship) that make the urban area unlivable for urban people. 427 River basins also constitute an essential land use in the urban system. The perspective of 428 conceiving the river basin as land use is best illustrated by answering the question: why do urban 429 people want to live around river basins? In the context of Java, the river basin is a sub-system that 430 embodies vegetation and waterways needed by urban people for food, energy, water, biodiversity, 431 and shelter (among many others). It serves as a cooling effect in the urban heat island concerns [46]. 432 Hence, river basins constitute land uses because they are part of the decisions people make regarding 433 land or natural resources available to them within permissible natural and administrative restrictions. 434 Land use is, therefore, a purposeful intervention by humans concerning what and how to exploit, 435 explore, protect or conserve aspects of the land system [47,48]. Urban river basins are, therefore, land 436 uses that are adoptable by urban people according to permissible natural and legal (or 437 administrative) characteristics, leading to transformations in the way they live in the urban system. Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 23

438 What has all of these to do with tackling urban flooding? River basins land uses that come with 439 dual spatial identities (as both land objects and land use in the urban system) offers an opportunity 440 to mitigate flooding in coastal areas as well as threats if it cannot be managed well. Based on the case 441 of Java, it can be argued that built-up areas expansion up to the upstream area of the river basins lead 442 to significant negative consequences. It is not only threatening the food and water supply 443 sustainability (referring to river basin as land) but also generating issues of infrastructure provisions 444 (such as to manage flood) and ownership because of rapid settlement growth in the area which has 445 a strategic role in the river system (conflict of interest of land use). 446 There is, indeed, a government responsibility to provide the public infrastructure which requires 447 not only technical capacity and funding but also proper coordination among different government 448 institutions. On the other hand, there is an increasing role of developers since most of the land is 449 owned privately. They are a dominant player in developing industrial and housing estates – those 450 regarded as the majority of land conversion happening in the study area. Accordingly, collaborations 451 with private sectors (landowners) is an excellent opportunity to further managing river basins mostly 452 to mitigate flood that is unavoidable in the situation where urbanization (i.e. land conversion) has 453 been spreading over the whole area.

454 4.2 Flood Phenomena is a Consequence of Urbanization and River Basin Interactions 455 This study has shown that the phenomena of urbanization and flood in the middle-northern part 456 of the island, at least in the last decade, is linked to land-use changes in four river basins of various 457 sizes. Indeed, the study found that there has been a very significant land conversion for more than 458 two centuries in the part of Java Island investigated in this study. The population in Java has 459 significantly grown from four million (at the beginning of 19th century) to 40 million (in early 20th 460 century) and now to more than 150 million inhabitants in 2018 [49,50]. The implications are that land 461 conversion and deforestation have grown to a significant level that impacts water cycle and rainfall 462 pattern. There are also longer dry seasons which creates significant problems on water supply as the 463 area keeps growing and experiencing rapid population growth.

464 Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 16 of 23

465 Figure 8. Urbanization and Flood Events in the Four Selected River Basins Area 466 467 Figure 8 shows the flood events distribution in the study area. The most significant exposure of 468 flood is at the downstream area that is mostly defined as the urban center. This is also in line with 469 the previous study done by Rudiarto et al., [7] where 40% of flooding events were found within the 470 range of 10 km while 80% of tidal flooding was distributed mostly in the areas of less than 5 km from 471 the coastline. A flood happens as a result of various factors, and urban flooding mostly takes place 472 not only because of the overflow of the water from the river (so-called as fluvial flooding) but also 473 because of pluvial flooding (caused due to land conversion in combination with weak drainage 474 system). The floods mostly take place in the urbanized area. This means that densification has a 475 significant influence on the increasing event of pluvial flooding. The densification is mostly due to 476 land conversion where agricultural land is converted into settlement and industrial land which 477 makes lots of the area vulnerable to the floods [51]. Zhou et al. [52] have shown through their study 478 that the drainage system is vital for reducing the risk of urban flood. Based on their case of some 479 major cities in Northern China, they [52] revealed that increasing flood events happen because of the 480 failure of the urban drainage system. A similar case in the UK [53] revealed that drainage is essential 481 for reducing flood risk since flooding is very much influenced by urban densification and a changing 482 rainfall pattern. Accordingly, a proper drainage system is very critical to accommodate water 483 conveyance during intensive rainfall. Even though there is still much debate, just as in the UK, there 484 is evidence of a changing rain pattern in Java because of rapid urban growth and deforestation [54,49]. 485 Likely, the number of rainy days is significantly decreasing with a higher intensity of rain. This is 486 very much influencing the surface water runoff and putting more pressure on river and drainage 487 systems. This type of rain requires a robust and adaptive drainage arrangement. 488 Despite the pluvial flooding (which happens mostly in urban fabric area), fluvial flooding 489 (which occurs because of the overbank of the water from the river) has a significant influence in peri- 490 urban and rural areas. In this regard, it is caused by land-use changes that relate to the forest to built- 491 up area transformations in the upstream area. Figure 8 illustrates some spots in the upstream area 492 that has experienced flooding. However, it happens not only because of the deforestation but also it 493 connects to in situ urbanization process. As Handayani [55] has revealed, two types of urbanization 494 derived from the industrialization path in Central Java. The study found that industrialization from 495 below is happening in Central Java. This type of industrialization is potentially leading to an 496 increasing flood risk that is not necessarily located in the big urban center.

497 4.3 Problematizing Urbanizing River Basins is an Opportunity for an Eco-Based Approach to Tackling the 498 Urban Flood Crises 499 Any serious effort at tackling urban flooding induced or influenced by river basins demands 500 problematizing river basins (that is, viewing them as a problem requiring a solution). This is 501 important in urban policymaking or urban reform efforts targeted towards urban flood management. 502 Historically, river basin development “has been used to structure water resource management” [56] 503 (p. 839). Evidence from the cases presented in this study shows that the management of these river 504 basins (if geared towards solving the flood problems) would have a mitigative effect in controlling 505 the situation. This is indicative that the effects of intensive land conversion at the upstream of the 506 river basins can have an impact in urban centers in the downstream area. Compact city concept has 507 been thought to be the most sustainable urban form to limit the uncontrolled effects of infrastructure 508 provision caused by the need to contain urban growth. Sprawl development patterns that are 509 happening in cities (globally) usually lead to an increasing load of emission because of the increasing 510 use of transportation. However, what is usually not written much about is that sprawl development 511 patterns cause problems that limit water conveyance and supply. Rudiarto et al. [7] stated that 512 urbanization in the north of Central Java has been very significant since the 1990s. It has been 513 followed by an increasing climate disaster evidenced by incessant floods. Handayani and Rudiarto 514 [57] have further examined these phenomena in Semarang Metropolitan as the biggest urban center 515 in the area. In this regard, Douglass [2] has argued that it creates an urbanizing disaster in Asia (that Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 17 of 23

516 is, a situation where agglomerations affect urban areas). Thus, there is an urgent call to focus on 517 managing urban growth in an integrated framework following an ecosystem-based (or eco-based) 518 regional approach. 519 In the context of urbanizing river basins and flooding, an eco-based approach would involve 520 conceiving the river basins as unique ecosystems, and employing a wide range of ecosystem 521 management activities to reduce the vulnerability urban people (and the urban environment) are face 522 as a result of flood. In this regard, the approach would tackle the urban challenges people due to the 523 location of the river basins. Hence, where flooding is a critical problem linked to the river basins, it 524 can be mitigated as part of the broader ecological system management. 525 Furthermore, the study shows that densification has been compacted in the urban centers in the 526 downstream area. Accordingly, urbanization is potentially spreading over the surrounding area, 527 reaching the mid- and upstream (refer back to Figure 5). This is indicative of the land conversion that 528 takes place in all the river basins (with significant occurrence from the midstream up to the upstream 529 area) (see Table III). This is why the eco-based approach can play a critical role in managing 530 urbanization to avoid extending beyond the limit of the ecological system.

531 4.4 There are Several Opportunities for Broadening the Role of Governance in Flood Management 532 Understanding the several opportunities available (through governance) in flood management 533 should be a critical aspect of urban development. The governance of river basins in particular (or 534 water resources in general) would allow the urban administrators to explore the various technical 535 and socio-political strategies for mitigating flood at different levels (basin, local, regional and 536 national). Consequently, a governance approach capable of addressing general urban issues, together 537 with flood challenges is imperative. Governance related urban policy instruments can serve as an 538 essential factor in ensuring proper flood intervention capable of managing urbanization and flood 539 prevention. In this regard, Friend et al. [58] argued that there is always a gap between policy planning 540 and implementation. The policy requires communication and negotiation among actors. 541 In the context of Java, the requirements even become more critical in the flood prevention in 542 Java, as shown in Figure 9 because there are many authorities with different roles and functions to 543 manage a river basin. Both vertical and horizontal coordination is needed to ensure an integrated 544 policy. Vertical coordination is essential because the National Government (i.e. Ministry of Public 545 Works through River Management Centre) is responsible for managing the rivers from upstream to 546 downstream while the drainage systems that cross two different regencies are under the 547 responsibility of the Provincial Government. Both institutions in different level of authority need to 548 work intensively with the local governments (cities and regencies) in the river basin. This is a spatial 549 planning policy that includes various infrastructure provisions that are under the local government 550 authority. Accordingly, horizontal coordination is also crucial, mostly because urban expansion due 551 to rapid urbanization takes place beyond administrative jurisdiction. Indeed, integration and 552 collaboration would enable more sustained urbanization. 553 In principle, the governance arrangement reflects subsidiarity. Each level deals with a specific 554 role and decision making is made at both the top and the lowest level. However, in practice (and 555 focusing on river basin), decision making in water management is not made at the lowest level where 556 the water is used (since it is the national and provincial authorities that carry out the roles of river 557 management and drainage systems respectively). This, therefore, necessitates better interagency 558 collaboration to allow for effective communication and co-designing of strategies for action. Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 18 of 23

559 560 Figure 9. Role and Responsibility of River Management and Land Use Allocation 561 562 Tackling disaster governance as part of the role in flood management is essential. However, this 563 is an issue that is relatively a new term that has not been further discussed [59,2]. The term becomes 564 vital in the current situation because flood disasters cannot be solved by only one organization. After 565 all, it is a multifaceted challenge that affects housing, farming and forestry, transport, among many 566 others. It requires an effective decision-making process that involves various sectors and different 567 authorities. It requires integrated approaches that are certainly not limited to infrastructural works 568 [60,61]. That is why Hegger et al. [20] categorized flood risk management in five types of strategies: 569 flood risk prevention, flood defense, flood risk mitigation, flood preparation, and flood recovery. 570 According to Hegger’s strategy typology, land-use changes that should be controlled through proper 571 spatial planning can serve as policy instruments for flood risk prevention. However, it is interesting 572 to note that based on Hegger et al.’s [20] and Raikes et al.’s [62] investigation in some selected 573 countries across the globe, there is still lack of integration among types of strategies being used. There 574 is also a fragmentation of policy related to water supply, flood management, and spatial planning. 575 Even though both scholars [20,62] also argue that fragmentation is inevitable because of so many 576 diverse strategies and each country has particular policy direction on flood management with 577 different strengths and weaknesses. 578 Raikes et al. [62] reveal that most government policies are too focused on infrastructural work 579 rather than comprehensive flood prevention (through spatial planning policy). Handayani et al. [21] 580 hold a similar position based on their two case scenarios, also done in Indonesia. Accordingly, Pardoe 581 et al. [60] have argued that infrastructural work will not be sufficient to accommodate the balance of 582 land, people, and water interactions. Instead, Pardoe et al. [60] argued for a holistic policy instrument, 583 which is vital to ensuring a sustainable space availability for people and water. Many countries 584 around the world have their country-specific strategy for managing flood situations. The Netherlands 585 with the concept of “Room for the River” [63] (p. 369) and the UK with “Making Space for Water” 586 [64] (p. 534) approach demonstrate a case on how the flood could be managed by suitable land use 587 allocation. The findings of this study have further provided evidence that spatial (land use) planning 588 is a fundamental policy instrument in flood risk management in Indonesia. A considerable amount 589 of investment allocated for significant infrastructural work for flood prevention will only act as a 590 short-term and reactive solution rather than provide long-term solutions.

591 5. Conclusions 592 Limited attention has been paid to the potential effects of river basins on urbanization associated 593 floods. In general terms (that is historical), it is well known that “most cities are historically developed 594 near rivers or oceans to ensure the supply of water” [65] (p. 1). It is therefore not surprising that Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 19 of 23

595 Indonesia — a country sandwiched within waters and having many rivers — has cities that are 596 located around waters. Therefore, this study confirms Zhang et al.’s [66] (p. 384) thesis that the 597 process of urbanization “exacerbate flood responses” in coastal cities. Using this case study, the study 598 identified a possible urban land use component in the global urban flooding crises. This also implies 599 that rapid urbanization accompanied by the lack of land-use planning (or inappropriate application 600 of it) increases the amount of land exposed to floods [65] (p. 1). One key issue that can be deduced 601 from the results of this study is that there is a relationship between flooding and urbanization. 602 However, this relationship between urbanization and flood is not always straightforward. It can vary 603 from country to country depending on planning and development strategy, human behavior or 604 response to flood and urbanization scenarios; and most importantly, the role of governance in the 605 management of floods. From the context of land use and management, this study has shown that the 606 linkage factor or object in the flood-and-urbanization relationship can be the river basin. 607 This study highlights the importance of investigating the role of river basins on flood events in 608 highly urbanized coastal areas. In specific terms, the study has shown that land-use changes and 609 flood events in four river basins located in Java Island have impact relationships. The river basin area 610 has been significantly urbanized as indicated by substantial growth of built-up areas. It has 611 influenced the water cycle that resulted in changing rainfall patterns and intensity. Eventually, the 612 phenomena create various types of floods that are not necessarily located in the downstream but also 613 the mid- and upstream. Infrastructural works such as river normalization, drainage improvement, 614 and building retention ponds will not provide a long-term solution. Disaster risk reduction through 615 proper land use planning and controlling is an essential instrument for safeguarding urban areas 616 (such as the case study area, and the whole of Java in Indonesia). This provides an opportunity for 617 sustaining coastal or island settlements from turning into urban islands characterized by complex 618 environmental problems, including extreme precipitation or water-related disasters, and 619 hydrometeorology associated events. However, technical measures alone will not be enough to 620 improve the situation without taking appropriate management measures. In this regard, the role of 621 governance of flood management is crucial. This aspect is a missing link in the urban environmental 622 risk management strategy of Indonesia. The country’s decentralization policy, which has been in 623 operation since 1999, has instead led to a cumbersome process of coordination in land use allocation, 624 instead of a solution-oriented one. Proper coordination mechanisms have not followed the greater 625 authority given to the local governments by the decentralization policy. Instead, each local 626 government (or municipality) have focused on achieving economic development that is highly 627 dependent on a massive land conversion without recourse to geographical delineations in the 628 upstream, midstream, or downstream. This situation will continue to have dire environmental 629 consequences so far as appropriate knowledge and actions for tackling the situation are not 630 developed. Hence, the effect of urban land-use-induced extreme precipitation and flooding must be 631 more explicitly studied. The study presented in this paper, therefore, is an urgent call to comprehend 632 urbanization beyond a mere administrative based process. Urbanization is importantly a land-use 633 process, and urban environmental risk generating events can be mitigated by understanding their 634 land use components. That is what this study has done. It explained the link and contributions of 635 urbanizing river basins in the complex structure of urban flood events in Java. This was done with 636 the objective that other scholars around the world (especially in the global south) will be motivated 637 to investigate the role of river basins in other urban areas in the search to identify solutions for 638 sustainable environmental risk governance in urban areas.

639 Author Contributions: All authors have read and agree to the published version of the manuscript. 640 Conceptualization, W.H. and U.E.C.; methodology, W.H. and I.R.; Resources, W.H., I.R., U.E.C., and I.H.S.P.; 641 Formal analysis, W.H., I.R, and I.H.S.P.; Investigation, W.H., I.R., and I.H.S.P.; writing—original draft 642 preparation, W.H., I.R, and I.H.S.P; writing—review and editing, W.H. and U.E.C.; Validation, W.H., I.R., U.E.C., 643 and I.H.S.P.; visualization, I.H.S.P. 644 Funding: This research was funded by University of Diponegoro and Ministry of Research, Technology, and 645 Higher Education, and the APC was funded by Technical University of Munich. Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 20 of 23

646 Acknowledgments: Acknowledgement is given to the Director General of Higher Education, Ministry of 647 Research and Technology Indonesia, Diponegoro University, and Technical University of Munich for supporting 648 this research. This publication was supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and the Technical 649 University of Munich (TUM) in the framework of the Open Access Publishing Program.

650 Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

651 References

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697 20. Hegger, D.L.; Driessen, P.P.; Wiering, M.; Van Rijswick, H.F.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Matczak, P.; Crabbé, A.; 698 Raadgever, G.T.; Bakker, M.H.N; Priest, S.J.; Larrue, C.; Ek, K. Toward more flood resilience: Is a 699 diversification of flood risk management strategies the way forward? Ecology and Society 2016, 21(4). 700 21. Handayani, W.; Fisher, M.R.; Rudiarto, I.; Setyono, J.S.; Foley, D. Operationalizing resilience: A content 701 analysis of flood disaster planning in two coastal cities in Central Java, Indonesia. International Journal of 702 Disaster Risk Reduction 2019, 35, 101073. 703 22. Chen, Y.; Xie, W.; Xu, X. Changes of Population, Built-up Land, and Cropland Exposure to Natural Hazards 704 in China from 1995 to 2015. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2019, 1-16. 705 23. Song, S.; Xu, Y.P.; Wu, Z.F.; Deng, X.J.; Wang, Q. The relative impact of urbanisation and precipitation on 706 long-term water level variations in the Yangtze River Delta. Science of The Total Environment 2019, 648, 460- 707 471. 708 24. Zhou, Q.; Leng, G.; Su, J.; Ren, Y. Comparison of urbanisation and climate change impacts on urban flood 709 volumes: Importance of urban planning and drainage adaptation. Science of The Total Environment 2019, 658, 710 24-33. 711 25. Zope, P.E.; Eldho, T.I.; Jothiprakash, V. Impacts of land use–land cover changes and urbanisation on 712 flooding: A case study of Oshiwara River Basin in Mumbai, India. Catena 2016, 145, 142-154. 713 26. Handayani, W.; Rudiarto, I.; Setyono, J.S.; Chigbu, U.E.; Sukmawati, A.M. Vulnerability assessment: A 714 comparison of three different city sizes in the coastal area of Central Java, Indonesia. Advances in Climate 715 Change Research 2017, 8(4), 286-296. 716 27. UN-Habitat. Sustainable Development Goal 11+ Make Cities and Human Settlements Inclusive, Safe, 717 Resilient and Sustainable: A Guide to Assist National and Local Governments to Monitor and Report on 718 SDG Goal 11+ Indicators. Monitoring Framework—Definitions—Metadata—UN-Habitat Technical 719 Support. 2018. Available online: 720 smartnet.niua.org/sites/default/files/resources/sdg_goal_11_monitoring_framework.pdf (accessed on 15 721 April 2019). 722 28. Handayani, W.; Waskitaningsih, N. Kependudukan dalam Perencanaan Wilayah dan Kota; Teknosain: 723 Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 2019. 724 29. Indonesia Government. Presidential Decree No. 12/2012: The Determination of River Areas, 2012. 725 30. Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). Head of Central Bureau of Statistics Regulation No. 37/2010: Urban Rural 726 Classification in Indonesia, 2010. 727 31. Indonesia Government. Law No. 24/2007: Disaster Management, 2007. 728 32. National Standardization Agency of Indonesia. Indonesian National Standard Regulation Number 7645: 729 2010 Land Cover Classification, 2010. 730 33. Tanika, L.; Rahayu, S. Fungsi Hidrologi pada Daerah Aliran Sungai; World Agroforestry Centre: , 731 Indonesia, 2016. 732 34. Hidayati, I.N. Plausibility Function Analysis of Elevation Effect for Optimizing Land Use Classification. 733 Globe 2013, 15(1), 1–11. 734 35. Asdak, C. Hidrologi Dan Pengelolaan Daerah Aliran Sungai; Gadjah Mada University Press: Yogyakarta, 735 Indonesia, 2010. 736 36. Central Java Government. Governor of Central Java Regulation No. 46/2012: The Provincial Level of 737 Forestry Plan 2011-2030, 2012. 738 37. Indonesian Ministry of Environment and Forestry. Minister of Environment and Forestry Regulation No. 739 P.41/MENLHK/SETJEN/KUM.1/7/2019: The National Level of Forestry Plan 2011-2030, 2019. 740 38. MCGA (Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency). Data Online - Data Iklim: Pusat 741 Database BMKG, Semarang-Indonesia, 2018. Available online: https://www.bmkg.go.id/iklim/?p=tren- 742 curah-hujan (accessed on 15 April 2019). 743 39. MCGA (Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency). Data Online - Data Iklim: Pusat 744 Database BMKG, Semarang-Indonesia, 2017. Available online: http://dataonline.bmkg.go.id/data_iklim 745 (accessed on 15 April 2019). 746 40. Siswanto, S.; Supari, S. Rainfall Changes Over Java Island, Indonesia. Journal of Environment and Earth 747 Science 2015, 5(14). 748 41. Rudiarto, I.; Rahmawati, I.; Sejati A.W. Land Degradation and Community Resilience in Rural Mountain 749 Area of Java, Indonesia. In Gully Erosion Studies from India and Surrounding Regions; Shit, P., Pourghasemi, 750 H., Bhunia, G., Eds.; Springer: Cham, Switzerland, 2020; pp. 449-460. Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 22 of 23

751 42. Kendal Disaster Management Agency. Banjir Limpas Sungai Kendal, 2019. Available online: 752 http://bpbd.kendalkab.go.id/berita/id/20190127001/banjir_limpas_sungai_kendal (accessed on 15 April 753 2019). 754 43. Das, S.; Teron, R.; Duary, B.; Bhattacharya, S.S.; Kim, K.H. Assessing C–N balance and soil rejuvenation 755 capacity of vermicompost application in a degraded landscape: A study in an alluvial river basin with 756 Cajanus cajan. Environmental research 2019, 177, 108591. 757 44. Fleischhauer, E.; Eger, H. Can Sustainable land Use be Achieved? An Introductory View on Scientific and 758 Political Views. In Towards Sustainable land Use: Furthering Cooperation Between People and Institutions 759 (Volume 1); Blume, H.P., Eger, H., Fleischhauer, E., Hebel, A., Reij, C., Steiner, K.G., Eds.; Catena Verlag 760 GMBh: Germany, 1998; pp. xix-xxxii. 761 45. Gwaleba, M.J.; Chigbu, U.E. Participation in Property Formation: Insights From Land-Use Planning in An 762 Informal Urban Settlement in Tanzania. Land Use Policy 2020, 92, 104482. 763 46. Yao, R.; Wang, L.; Gui, X.; Zheng, Y.; Zhang, H.; Huang, X. Urbanisation Effects on Vegetation and Surface 764 Urban Heat Islands in China’s Yangtze River Basin. Remote Sensing 2017, 9(6), 540. 765 47. Zhanlu, Z.; Zhang, Z. Land Use Planning; China Renmin University Press: Beijing, China, 2006. 766 48. Wang, W.; Han, T. Land Use Planning; China Agriculture Press: Beijing, China, 2013. 767 49. Pawitan, H. Perubahan Penggunaan Lahan dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap Hidrologi Daerah Aliran Sungai (Effect of 768 land use change to the hydrology in watersheds); Laboratorium Hidrometeorologi FMIPA IPB: Bogor, 769 Indonesia, 2004. 770 50. Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). Statistik Indonesia 2018 (Indonesian statistic 2018). Central Bureau of 771 Statistics: Jakarta, Indonesia, 2018. 772 51. Rudiarto, I.; Handayani, W.; Wijaya, H.B.; Insani, T.D.; Land Resource Availability and Climate Change 773 Disasters in The Rural Coastal of Central Java–Indonesia. IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 2018, 202, 774 012029. 775 52. Zhou, Q.; Leng, G.; Su, J.; Ren, Y. Comparison of urbanisation and climate change impacts on urban flood 776 volumes: Importance of Urban Planning and Drainage Adaptation. Science of The Total Environment 777 2019, 658, 24-33. 778 53. Miller, J.D.; Hutchins, M. The Impacts of Urbanisation and Climate Change on Urban Flooding and Urban 779 Water Quality: A Review of The Evidence Concerning The United Kingdom. Journal of Hydrology: Regional 780 Studies 2017, 12, 345-362. 781 54. Haryani, G.S. Ecohydrology in Indonesia: Emerging Challenges and Its Future Pathways. Ecohydrology & 782 Hydrobiology 2016, 16(2), 112-116. 783 55. Handayani, W. Rural-Urban Transition in Central Java: Population and Economic Structural Changes 784 Based on Cluster Analysis. Land 2013, 2, 419-436. 785 56. Fatch, J.J.; Manzungu, E.; Mabiza, C. Problematising and Conceptualising Local Participation in 786 Transboundary Water Resources Management: The Case of Limpopo River Basin in Zimbabwe. Physics and 787 Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 2010, 35(13-14), 838-847. 788 57. Handayani, W.; Rudiarto, I. Dynamics of urban growth in Semarang Metropolitan-Central Java: An 789 examination based on built-up area and population change. Journal of Geography and Geology 2014, 6(4), 80. 790 58. Friend, R.; Jarvie, J.; Reed, S.O.; Sutarto, R.; Thinphanga, P.; Toan, V.C. Mainstreaming urban climate 791 resilience into policy and planning; reflections from Asia. Urban Climate 2014, 7, 6-19. 792 59. Tierney, K. Disaster Governance: Social, Political, and Economic Dimensions. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 793 2012, 37, 341-63. 794 60. Pardoe, J.; Penning-Rowsell, E.; Tunstall, S. Floodplain Conflicts: Regulation and Negotiation. Natural 795 hazards and earth system sciences 2011, 11(10), 2889-2902. 796 61. Heintz, M.D.; Hagemeier-Klose, M.; Wagner, K. Towards A Risk Governance Culture in Flood Policy— 797 Findings from The Implementation of The “Floods Directive” in Germany. Water 2012, 4(1), 135-156. 798 62. Raikes, J.; Smith, T.F.; Jacobson, C.; Baldwin, C. Pre-disaster Planning and Preparedness for Floods and 799 Droughts: A Systematic Review. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 2019, 101207. 800 63. Rijke, J., Van Herk, S.; Zevenbergen, C.; Ashley, R. Room for The River: Delivering Integrated River Basin 801 Management in The Netherlands. International journal of river basin management 2012, 10(4), 369-382. 802 64. Jones, P.; Macdonald, N. Making Space for Unruly Water: Sustainable Drainage Systems and The 803 Disciplining of Surface Runoff. Geoforum 2007, 38(3), 534-544. Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 23 of 23

804 65. Bae, S.; Chang, H. Urbanisation and Floods in The Seoul Metropolitan Area of South Korea: What Old Maps 805 Tell Us. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 2019, 37, 101186. 806 66. Zhang, W.; Villarini, G.; Vecchi, G.A.; Smith, J.A. Urbanisation Exacerbated The Rainfall and Flooding 807 Caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston. Nature 2018, 563(7731), 384-388. © 2020 by the authors. Submitted for possible open access publication under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 808 Wiwandari Handayani

[Land] Manuscript ID: land-843822 - Assistant Editor Assigned 1 message

Janie Liu 8 June 2020 at 09:21 Reply-To: [email protected] To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Janie Liu , Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office

Dear Dr. Handayani,

Your manuscript has been assigned to Janie Liu for further processing who will act as a point of contact for any questions related to your paper.

Journal: Land Manuscript ID: land-843822 Title: Urbanization and Floods in the Northern Coast of Central Java: Towards A Responsive Land Use Policy at the River Basin Level Authors: Wiwandari Handayani , Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri

Received: 06 June 2020 E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

You can find it here: https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/review_info/fe85baf852e68207398049e00d4de485

Best regards, Ms. Janie Liu Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected]

-- MDPI Branch Office, Beijing Land Editorial Office E-mail: [email protected] http://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/

MDPI AG St. Alban-Anlage 66, 4052 Basel Switzerland Tel. +41 61 683 77 34; Fax +41 61 302 89 18 http://www.mdpi.com/ ------Land is affiliated to IALE http://www.landscape-ecology.org/home.html Wiwandari Handayani

[Land] Manuscript ID: land-843822 - Article Processing Charge Confirmation 2 messages

Janie Liu 8 June 2020 at 09:19 Reply-To: [email protected] To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office

Dear Dr. Handayani,

Thank you very much for submitting your manuscript to Land:

*Please reply us to confirm APC when you receive this email. If you have any questions about APC, please contact with me in time. Thank for your understanding and cooperation.*

Journal name: Land Manuscript ID: land-843822 Type of manuscript: Article Title: Urbanization and Floods in the Northern Coast of Central Java: Towards A Responsive Land Use Policy at the River Basin Level Authors: Wiwandari Handayani, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto, Intan Hapsari Surya Putri Received: 6 June 2020 E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Land, Women, Youths, and Land Tools or Methods https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/special_issues/land_women

We confirm that, if accepted for publication, the following Article Processing Charges (APC) will apply to your article:

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Kind regards, Ms. Janie Liu Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected]

-- MDPI Branch Office, Beijing Land Editorial Office E-mail: [email protected] http://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/ MDPI AG St. Alban-Anlage 66, 4052 Basel Switzerland Tel. +41 61 683 77 34; Fax +41 61 302 89 18 http://www.mdpi.com/ ------Land is affiliated to IALE http://www.landscape-ecology.org/home.html

Wiwandari Handayani 8 June 2020 at 11:59 To: Janie Liu Cc: Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office

Dear Ms. Janie Liu, I confirm you the APC to have an open access publishing. The corresponding author, Dr. Uchendu Eugene Chigbu via the Institutional Open Access Program (IOAP): Technical University of Munich (TU München) ) will process it.

Best, Wiwi -- Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS Associate Professor

Research Group in Regional Development and Environmental Management Department of Urban and Regional Planning | Diponegoro University Semarang 50275, Indonesia [Quoted text hidden] -- Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS Associate Professor

Research Group in Regional Development and Environmental Management Department of Urban and Regional Planning | Diponegoro University Semarang 50275, Indonesia Wiwandari Handayani

Re: [Land] Manuscript ID: land-843822 - Assistant Editor Assigned - Need Word Version 3 messages

Janie Liu 8 June 2020 at 09:26 To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office

Dear Dr. Handayani,

Thank you for your submission. Please provide the word version of this paper via the email today.

We are looking forward to hearing from you. Have a nice day!

Best Regards, Janie

Best Regards, Ms. Janie Liu, Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected] ------

On 2020/6/8 10:21, Janie Liu wrote: Dear Dr. Handayani,

Your manuscript has been assigned to Janie Liu for further processing who will act as a point of contact for any questions related to your paper.

Journal: Land Manuscript ID: land-843822 Title: Urbanization and Floods in the Northern Coast of Central Java: Towards A Responsive Land Use Policy at the River Basin Level Authors: Wiwandari Handayani , Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri

Received: 06 June 2020 E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

You can find it here: https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/review_info/fe85baf852e68207398049e00d4de485

Best regards, Ms. Janie Liu Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected]

-- MDPI Branch Office, Beijing Land Editorial Office E-mail: [email protected] http://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/

MDPI AG St. Alban-Anlage 66, 4052 Basel Switzerland Tel. +41 61 683 77 34; Fax +41 61 302 89 18 http://www.mdpi.com/ ------Land is affiliated to IALE http://www.landscape-ecology.o rg/home.html

Wiwandari Handayani 8 June 2020 at 09:37 To: Janie Liu Cc: Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office

Dear Ms. Janie Liu, Please find enclosed the word version of the paper. Thank you.

Best, Wiwi -- Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS Associate Professor

Research Group in Regional Development and Environmental Management Department of Urban and Regional Planning | Diponegoro University Semarang 50275, Indonesia [Quoted text hidden] -- Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS Associate Professor

Research Group in Regional Development and Environmental Management Department of Urban and Regional Planning | Diponegoro University Semarang 50275, Indonesia

Land_article_urbanization and flood_Central Java.docx 2781K

Janie Liu 8 June 2020 at 09:46 To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office

Dear Wiwandari,

Thank you so much for your reply. The word version has been uploaded on the system. Please also confirm APC with us. If you have any questions about APC, please contact with me in time.

Have a nice day!

Best Regards, Ms. Janie Liu, Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected] ------

On 2020/6/8 10:37, Wiwandari Handayani wrote: Dear Ms. Janie Liu, Please find enclosed the word version of the paper. Thank you.

Best, Wiwi -- *Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS* Associate Professor

Research Group in Regional Development and Environmental Management Department of Urban and Regional Planning | Diponegoro University Semarang 50275, Indonesia

On Mon, 8 Jun 2020 at 09:26, Janie Liu > wrote:

Dear Dr. Handayani,

Thank you for your submission. Please provide the word version of this paper via the email today.

We are looking forward to hearing from you. Have a nice day!

Best Regards, Janie

Best Regards, Ms. Janie Liu, Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected] ------

On 2020/6/8 10:21, Janie Liu wrote: Dear Dr. Handayani,

Your manuscript has been assigned to Janie Liu for further processing who will act as a point of contact for any questions related to your paper.

Journal: Land Manuscript ID: land-843822 Title: Urbanization and Floods in the Northern Coast of Central Java: Towards A Responsive Land Use Policy at the River Basin Level Authors: Wiwandari Handayani , Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri

Received: 06 June 2020 E-mails: [email protected] , [email protected] , [email protected] , [email protected]

You can find it here: https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/review_info/fe85baf852e68207398049e00d4de485

Best regards, Ms. Janie Liu Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected]

-- MDPI Branch Office, Beijing Land Editorial Office E-mail: [email protected] http://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/

MDPI AG St. Alban-Anlage 66, 4052 Basel Switzerland Tel. +41 61 683 77 34; Fax +41 61 302 89 18 http://www.mdpi.com/ ------Land is affiliated to IALE http://www.landscape-ecology.org/home.html

-- *Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS* Associate Professor [Quoted text hidden] Wiwandari Handayani

[Land] Manuscript ID: land-843822 - Declined for Publication - Encourage Resubmission after Revisions 9 messages

Janie Liu 30 June 2020 at 10:01 Reply-To: [email protected] To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office , Cosette Yuan

Dear Dr. Handayani,

I am writing to you concerning the manuscript you recently submitted to Land. Based on the review reports, the manuscript is not suitable for publication in Land in its present format. Significant revisions or new data are required in the manuscript to warrant further consideration for publication of this manuscript in Land.

Manuscript ID: land-843822 Type of manuscript: Article Title: Urbanization and Floods in the Northern Coast of Central Java: Towards A Responsive Land Use Policy at the River Basin Level Authors: Wiwandari Handayani, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto, Intan Hapsari Surya Putri Received: 6 June 2020 E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Land, Women, Youths, and Land Tools or Methods https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/special_issues/land_women https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/review_info/fe85baf852e68207398049e00d4de485

You can find the review reports at: https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/resubmit/fe85baf852e68207398049e00d4de485

Based on reviewer input and editorial evaluation, we encourage resubmission of your manuscript after extensive revisions. During resubmission, you must clearly indicate the manuscript ID (land-843822) of this paper. All changes must be highlighted and a cover letter with responses to reviewers’ comments included. Note that the Editorial Office may send the paper to the same reviewers or invite new reviewers.

Please resubmit your revised manuscript through the following link: https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/upload?pre_hash_key=fe85baf852e68207398049e00d4de485

Thanks again for submitting your work to Land. If you have any questions, please contact the Editorial Office at [email protected].

Kind regards,

Ms. Janie Liu Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected]

-- MDPI Branch Office, Beijing Land Editorial Office E-mail: [email protected] http://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/

MDPI AG St. Alban-Anlage 66, 4052 Basel Switzerland Tel. +41 61 683 77 34; Fax +41 61 302 89 18 http://www.mdpi.com/ ------Land is affiliated to IALE http://www.landscape-ecology.org/home.html

Chigbu, Uchendu 30 June 2020 at 15:02 To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri

Dear Wiwi,

Not a good decision for us by the Editor again (despite more reviewers requesting for a revision).

What next step do you suggest? Take your time to look at the reviewer comments before any further step.

Best wishes,

Eugene

...... Dr.-Ing. Uchendu Eugene Chigbu

Researcher & Doctoral Program Coordinator Technical University of Munich, Chair of Land Management, Arcisstraße 21, 80333 Munich, Germany. Tel.: +49 (0)89 289-22518 / Fax: +49 (0)89 289-23933 I Available on I Twitter I LinkedIn I Researchgate I

From: [email protected] on behalf of Janie Liu Sent: 30 June 2020 05:01 To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Chigbu, Uchendu; Iwan Rudiarto; Intan Hapsari Surya Putri; Land Editorial Office; Cosee Yuan Subject: [Land] Manuscript ID: land-843822 - Declined for Publicaon - Encourage Resubmission aer Revisions

[Quoted text hidden]

Wiwandari Handayani 30 June 2020 at 20:45 To: "Chigbu, Uchendu" Cc: Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri

Dear Eugene, Indeed, sad decision. Do you have any suggestions for the next step? Better to re-submit to Land or consider other journals?

I will certainly thinking for the needed improvement and get back to you for further discussion.

Best, Wiwi [Quoted text hidden]

Chigbu, Uchendu 30 June 2020 at 22:07 To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri

Dear Wiwi,

From the system, I think the editor recommended: "reject and encourage resubmission". Can you send an email to the Editorial assistant to confirm that we can rework it and resubmit as a new paper? If they can confirm that then I suggest we stick to rewriting it and resubmitting. I will seek for Open Access fund from my institution again during resubmission.

Best wishes,

Eugene

...... Dr.-Ing. Uchendu Eugene Chigbu

Researcher & Doctoral Program Coordinator Technical University of Munich, Chair of Land Management, Arcisstraße 21, 80333 Munich, Germany. Tel.: +49 (0)89 289-22518 / Fax: +49 (0)89 289-23933 I Available on I Twitter I LinkedIn I Researchgate I

From: Wiwandari Handayani Sent: 30 June 2020 15:45 To: Chigbu, Uchendu Cc: Iwan Rudiarto; Intan Hapsari Surya Putri Subject: Re: [Land] Manuscript ID: land-843822 - Declined for Publicaon - Encourage Resubmission aer Revisions

[Quoted text hidden]

Wiwandari Handayani 1 July 2020 at 21:07 To: "Chigbu, Uchendu" Cc: Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri

Dear Eugene, The editorial assistant has sent an email suggesting us to improve and re-submit. She has also given the link for re- submission. I agree with you to re-submit to land. I will further check and think the reviewers' comments get back to you sometime next week. Thank you so much for all the support.

Best, Wiwi [Quoted text hidden] -- Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS Associate Professor

Research Group in Regional Development and Environmental Management Department of Urban and Regional Planning | Diponegoro University Semarang 50275, Indonesia

Chigbu, Uchendu 1 July 2020 at 23:17 To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri

Ok. look at some of the reviewers comments to see if they are realistic.

Best wishes Eugene

On 1 Jul 2020, at 16:07, Wiwandari Handayani wrote:

[Quoted text hidden]

Wiwandari Handayani 8 July 2020 at 21:14 To: "Chigbu, Uchendu" Cc: Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri

Dear Eugene, I have been thinking about the paper and briefly discussed it with Iwan and Intan. We will make some improvements in the following week. There are some constructive comments from the 1st, 2nd and 4th reviewer. I feel bad with the 3rd reviewer's comment :) though. that is ok. There will be some major revisions: 1. re-structure the background, and try to strengthen the novelty 2. add data on rainfall and fatalities 3. improve the quality and format of the map 4. re-state the unclear sentences/paragraph I will keep most of the discussion part. Please let me know if you think that might be better if we develop the discussion in a certain way/direction. I have some work that needs to be completed this week. I hope that I am able to send the draft to you in about 2 weeks from now.

Best, Wiwi

[Quoted text hidden]

Chigbu, Uchendu 8 July 2020 at 21:30 To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri

Dear Wiwi,

Good to read from you, and to know you are sll movated to go ahead with a resubmission.

Please do what you can aerwards. I will see if there is more I can add to it based on the reviewers' comments.

Do not feel too bad. Land just received 2.4 impact factor assessment, so the editors are scaling up the rejecon rate to maintain a new standard. I just had a paper rejected by land and one of their complaints was English edit. In contrast, I had a similar paper accepted by Town Planning Review (Brish) in current form aer more than one month of review without any minor/major revision. The problem with Land is that they do an open review, some unprofessional reviewers can profile the authors' names first, and that affects their comments somemes. The third reviewer maybe the editor

Best wishes,

Eugene

[Quoted text hidden]

Wiwandari Handayani 8 July 2020 at 21:58 To: "Chigbu, Uchendu"

Dear Eugene, Sure, I am still motivated with a resubmission. Thank you so much for your motivation and explanation.

Best, Wiwi [Quoted text hidden] Wiwandari Handayani

[Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Submission Received 9 messages

Editorial Office 14 August 2020 at 13:05 Reply-To: [email protected] To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri

Dear Dr. Handayani,

Thank you very much for uploading the following manuscript to the MDPI submission system. One of our editors will be in touch with you soon.

Journal name: Land Manuscript ID: land-916140 Type of manuscript: Article Title: Urbanization and Floods in the Northern Coast of Central Java: Towards A Responsive Land Use Policy at the River Basin Level Authors: Wiwandari Handayani, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto, Intan Hapsari Surya Putri Received: 14 August 2020 E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Land, Women, Youths, and Land Tools or Methods https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/special_issues/land_women

You can follow progress of your manuscript at the following link (login required): https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/review_info/006103563f1b73d21369ffe38c9a0c6f

The following points were confirmed during submission:

1. Land is an open access journal with publishing fees of 1400 CHF for an accepted paper (see https://www.mdpi.com/about/apc/ for details). This manuscript, if accepted, will be published under an open access Creative Commons CC BY license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), and I agree to pay the Article Processing Charges as described on the journal webpage (https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/apc). See https://www.mdpi.com/about/openaccess for more information about open access publishing.

Please note that you may be entitled to a discount if you have previously received a discount code or if your institute is participating in the MDPI Institutional Open Access Program (IOAP), for more information see https://www.mdpi.com/about/ioap. If you have been granted any other special discounts for your submission, please contact the Land editorial office.

2. I understand that:

a. If previously published material is reproduced in my manuscript, I will provide proof that I have obtained the necessary copyright permission. (Please refer to the Rights & Permissions website: https://www.mdpi.com/authors/rights).

b. My manuscript is submitted on the understanding that it has not been published in or submitted to another peer-reviewed journal. Exceptions to this rule are papers containing material disclosed at conferences. I confirm that I will inform the journal editorial office if this is the case for my manuscript. I confirm that all authors are familiar with and agree with submission of the contents of the manuscript. The journal editorial office reserves the right to contact all authors to confirm this in case of doubt. I will provide email addresses for all authors and an institutional e-mail address for at least one of the co-authors, and specify the name, address and e-mail for invoicing purposes.

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact the Land editorial office at [email protected]

Kind regards,

Land Editorial Office St. Alban-Anlage 66, 4052 Basel, Switzerland E-Mail: [email protected] Tel. +41 61 683 77 34 Fax: +41 61 302 89 18

*** This is an automatically generated email ***

Chigbu, Uchendu 14 August 2020 at 14:51 To: Wiwandari Handayani , Land Editorial Office Cc: Land Editorial Office

I noticed that the title on the manuscript is not exactly the same as the one used on the submission website. The correct title is on the manuscript (with "Indonesia". The "Indonesia" is missing in the title used on the website.

Can "Land" correct this?

Best wishes,

Eugene

...... Dr.-Ing. Uchendu Eugene Chigbu

Researcher & Doctoral Program Coordinator Technical University of Munich, Chair of Land Management, Arcisstraße 21, 80333 Munich, Germany. Tel.: +49 (0)89 289-22518 / Fax: +49 (0)89 289-23933 I Available on I Twitter I LinkedIn I Researchgate I From: [email protected] on behalf of Editorial Office Sent: 14 August 2020 08:05 To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Chigbu, Uchendu; Iwan Rudiarto; Intan Hapsari Surya Putri Subject: [Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Submission Received

[Quoted text hidden]

Land Editorial Office 14 August 2020 at 14:53 Reply-To: [email protected] To: "Chigbu, Uchendu" , Wiwandari Handayani

Dear Eugene,

Thanks for your message. We will correct that. However, we did not receive authors' detailed reply to previous reviewers' comments. Could you please provide it to us today?

I expect your reply soon!

Best Regards, Ms. Cosette Yuan, Land Managing Editor Email: [email protected] ------/Land/ is indexed in SSCI - Web of Science and Scopus! Impact Factor: 2.429 (2019) CiteScore 2019 (Scopus): 2.8.

On 2020/8/14 15:51, Chigbu, Uchendu wrote:

I noticed that the title on the manuscript is not exactly the same as the one used on the submission website. The correct title is on the manuscript (with "Indonesia". The "Indonesia" is missing in the title used on the website.

Can "Land" correct this?

Best wishes,

Eugene

......

Dr.-Ing. Uchendu Eugene Chigbu

Researcher & Doctoral Program Coordinator TechnicalUniversity of Munich, Chair of Land Management, Arcisstraße 21, 80333 Munich, Germany. Tel.: +49 (0)89 289-22518 / Fax: +49 (0)89 289-23933 I Available onITwitter ILinkedIn IResearchgate I

------

*From:* [email protected] on behalf of Editorial Office *Sent:* 14 August 2020 08:05 *To:* Wiwandari Handayani *Cc:* Chigbu, Uchendu; Iwan Rudiarto; Intan Hapsari Surya Putri *Subject:* [Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Submission [Quoted text hidden]

Wiwandari Handayani 14 August 2020 at 15:12 To: "Chigbu, Uchendu"

Dear Eugene, I am so sorry, I will re check again. Hoping Land can fix this issue.

Best, Wiwi [Quoted text hidden]

Chigbu, Uchendu 14 August 2020 at 15:14 To: Wiwandari Handayani

Dear Wiwi,

You don't have to do anything about the title. The Editorial Assistant will do it - see email below. Also, the Editorial Assistant noted that we still have to respond to the reviewers' feedback from the last review. Can you do it? The main thing is to indicate that we revamped the paper entirely give specific response to their issues.

Best wishes,

Eugene

...... Dr.-Ing. Uchendu Eugene Chigbu

Researcher & Doctoral Program Coordinator Technical University of Munich, Chair of Land Management, Arcisstraße 21, 80333 Munich, Germany. Tel.: +49 (0)89 289-22518 / Fax: +49 (0)89 289-23933 I Available on I Twitter I LinkedIn I Researchgate I

From: Land Editorial Office Sent: 14 August 2020 09:53 To: Chigbu, Uchendu; Wiwandari Handayani Subject: Re: [Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Submission Received

[Quoted text hidden] Wiwandari Handayani 14 August 2020 at 15:51 To: "Chigbu, Uchendu"

Dear Eugene, I have a full meeting today. Since the editor asked for today, would that be possible for you to provide that? Otherwise, I will try my best to make it later today.

Best, Wiwi [Quoted text hidden] -- Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS Associate Professor

Research Group in Regional Development and Environmental Management Department of Urban and Regional Planning | Diponegoro University Semarang 50275, Indonesia

Chigbu, Uchendu 14 August 2020 at 18:44 To: "[email protected]" , Cosette Yuan Cc: Wiwandari Handayani

Dear Cosette,

Please find attached the responses to reviewers 1, 2, 3 & 4 in one document. It is important to notify the reviewers that this current version is a rewritten manuscript. Also, the four reviewers had contradictory views (even those who rejected it did so on contradictory reasons) of the paper. It is important to put this into consideration while reviewing or editorial decisioning.

Thanks for your editorial help always.

Best wishes,

Eugene

...... Dr.-Ing. Uchendu Eugene Chigbu

Researcher & Doctoral Program Coordinator Technical University of Munich, Chair of Land Management, Arcisstraße 21, 80333 Munich, Germany. Tel.: +49 (0)89 289-22518 / Fax: +49 (0)89 289-23933 I Available on I Twitter I LinkedIn I Researchgate I From: Land Editorial Office Sent: 14 August 2020 09:53 To: Chigbu, Uchendu; Wiwandari Handayani Subject: Re: [Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Submission Received

[Quoted text hidden]

Handayani et al_response.docx 17K

Wiwandari Handayani 14 August 2020 at 22:04 To: "Chigbu, Uchendu"

Dear Eugene, Thank you so much for the response to reviewer comments. Great that finally you did it. You write nicely but at the same time are able to show our position. I initially thought to reply them only with a brief general statements informing that we have rewritten and accommodate most of the relevant inputs.

I wish you a nice weekend.

Best, Wiwi [Quoted text hidden]

Chigbu, Uchendu 14 August 2020 at 22:59 To: Wiwandari Handayani

Have a good weekend.

Let us hope they send the paper to reviewers who are experienced and considerate that a paper is not written in one particular way.

Best wishes,

Eugene

...... Dr.-Ing. Uchendu Eugene Chigbu

Researcher & Doctoral Program Coordinator Technical University of Munich, Chair of Land Management, Arcisstraße 21, 80333 Munich, Germany. Tel.: +49 (0)89 289-22518 / Fax: +49 (0)89 289-23933 I Available on I Twitter I LinkedIn I Researchgate I

From: Wiwandari Handayani Sent: 14 August 2020 17:04:44 To: Chigbu, Uchendu [Quoted text hidden]

[Quoted text hidden]

1 Article 2 Urbanization and Increasing Flood Risk in the 3 Northern Coast of Central Java – Indonesia: an 4 Assessment towards Better Land Use Policy and 5 Flood Management

6 Wiwandari Handayani 1, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu 2,*, Iwan Rudiarto 1 and Intan Hapsari Surya 7 Putri 1

8 1 Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Diponegoro University, Semarang 50275, Indonesia; 9 [email protected] (W.H.); [email protected] (I.R.); 10 [email protected] (I.H.S.P.) 11 2 Chair of Land management, Faculty of Aerospace and Geodesy, Technical University of Munich (TUM), 12 80333 Munich, Germany; [email protected] (U.E.C.) 13 * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +49-(0)89-289-22518 (U.E.C.); 14 [email protected] (W.H.)

15 Received: date; Accepted: date; Published: date

16 Abstract: This study aims to explore urbanization and flood events in the northern coast of Central 17 Java by using river basin as the basis of unit analysis. This study uses two types of analysis: spatial 18 data and non-spatial data analysis of four river basin areas located in Central Java – Indonesia. The 19 spatial analysis is focused on assessing LULC change in 2009-2018 based on Landsat Imagery. The 20 non-spatial data (i.e. rural-urban classification and flood events) were overlaid with the results of 21 spatial data analyses. Findings show that urbanization, indicated from the growth rate of the built- 22 up area, is very significant. A notable exposure of flood is taken place in the urban and potentially 23 urban areas. The emerging discussion indicate that flood phenomena is a consequence of 24 urbanization and river basin interactions; and river basins have dual spatial identity in the urban 25 system (policy and land-use related). Proper land use planning and controlling is an essential 26 instrument for safeguarding urban areas (such as the case study area), and the whole of Java in 27 Indonesia. It also shows that problematizing urbanizing river basins is an opportunity for an eco- 28 based approach to tackling the urban flood crises in which the role of governance in flood 29 management is crucial.

30 Keywords: Central Java; flood; Indonesia; land use; land-use change; urbanization

31

32 1. Introduction 33 Flood is one of the most frequent disasters happening across the globe [1-4]. Rapid urbanization 34 in low-lying areas creates higher exposure to various types of floods, in addition to the increase of 35 coastal flooding caused by sea-level rise and changing rainfall patterns due to climate change [5-9]. 36 Urbanization can be clearly indicated by land conversion to residential areas based on the premise 37 that the growing urban population requires more land. Land conversion expands both downstream 38 and upstream to accommodate the needs and activities of the growing urban populations. Deng et

Land 2020, 9, x; doi: FOR PEER REVIEW www.mdpi.com/journal/land Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 22

39 al. [10] (p. 1341) and Chin [11] (p. 469) assert that urbanization is a significant contributor to the 40 changing river system and structure as it usually increases flood risk. 41 Land use policy provides the opportunity to conduct systematic assessment of land and water 42 potentials and to identify options to improve flood-prone areas and mitigate floods occurrences. As 43 “a culmination of all activities and decisions concerned with guiding the allocation and use of land 44 in patterns that enable improvements in peoples’ way of living”, land use planning policy is a crucial 45 process for mitigating floods [12] (p. 8). On this basis, Hegger et al. [13] propose flood risk prevention 46 as a way to decrease the exposure of people/property using spatial planning policy as a critical 47 approach to Flood Risk Management (FRM). Therefore, flood risk prevention is very vital in the flood 48 adaptation cycle. It relates to the capacity to transform and adapt long-term perspectives of 49 addressing disturbance in achieving more sustainable urbanization. The Hyogo Framework for 50 Action 2005–2015 [14] and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 [15] have 51 strengthened the role of land use policy to contribute to disaster risk reduction. Both global 52 commitments prioritize land use allocation through policy instrument to reduce risk factors, 53 considering that the policy will accommodate physical and ecological characteristics in allocating 54 various types of land use. 55 Recent studies in various parts of Asia have shown a significant connection between 56 urbanization (influenced by land-use change) and flooding events [13,16-20]. Some of these studies 57 are worth mentioning here. Chen et al. [17] investigated the connection between population growth 58 and land-use changes in relation to natural hazard occurrence in China. They found that the Pearl 59 River Basin is increasingly exposed to floods because of population growth and land conversion. 60 Song et al. assessed the water level dynamics in the Yangtze River Delta and found that precipitation 61 and urbanization caused increased flood risk. Focusing on drainage adaptation, Zhou et al. [19] 62 revealed that land-use changes in Northern China exacerbated the increase of surface runoff due to 63 flooding, which is caused by poor drainage system planning. Zope et al. [20] investigated Land Use- 64 Land Cover (LULC) changes in Oshiwara River Basin in Mumbai-India and revealed that increase of 65 LULC correspondingly led to the increase in flood frequency. In the book Disaster Governance in 66 Urbanizing Asia, Miller and Douglass’ [2] argued that that urbanization is a leading factor in the 67 exposure of human settlements to floods and vulnerabilities of various forms. All of the studies 68 mentioned above have influenced this study to infer that controlling urbanization and reducing flood 69 risk cannot be executed in an isolation process. The whole urban system at the regional level needs 70 to be considered. After all, most “sites of intense urbanization are prone to natural hazards - such as 71 flood, landslide, drought, and tidal flood” in Indonesia [21] (p. 287). 72 All of these studies [13,16-21] indicate that flood and urbanization are complex issues. Flood 73 risk is identified based on water system delineation, and defined based on gravity-driven river flow 74 pattern following landscape ecology, which then forms a river basin [22]. Accordingly, a river basin 75 is usually characterized by a land area that consists of various types of land use and a number of 76 watersheds that drain from upstream to downstream area [23]. Water flows without recourse to 77 administrative jurisdictions, while spatial planning (i.e. land use policy) to control urbanization are 78 examined based on the administrative jurisdiction. In Indonesia, it is common that river basins cover 79 more than one administrative boundary or local government authority. This means that a river basin 80 can be found within and beyond a particular local authority responsible for river management. This 81 type of scenario therefore, creates a challenge in land use planning, and in developing controlling 82 mechanisms for river management. 83 This study aims to explore urbanization and flood events in the northern coast of Central Java 84 by using river basin as the basis of unit analysis. We addressed two main research questions herein: 85 (1) How urbanization and flood events have taken place from the perspective of river basin 86 delineation? (2) To what extent the comprehension of river basin as land and land use could 87 contribute in reducing flood risk through land use policy and better flood management? To answer 88 these questions, the remaining part of the paper is divided into three main sections respectively. 89 Section 2 is a description of the scope and methods used in this study; section 3 provides an analysis 90 on land-use changes and flood events within the scope of study; and section 4 discusses the issues Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 22

91 emerging from the analysis, with focus on the importance of understanding on the spatial identity of 92 river basin to contribute to better land use policy and governance mechanism on flood management.

93 2. Materials and Methods

94 2.1. Study Area 95 Java is the most populous island in Indonesia. Its number of inhabitants constitutes 60% of the 96 total Indonesian population, while the area is only less than 7% of the total Indonesian areas [24]. 97 According to the Presidential Decree [25], the Island has around 1,200 watersheds and 24 river basins. 98 Some of them are categorized National Strategic River Basins — meaning that their strategic 99 socioeconomic and environmental functions should be preserved. The study area is located in the 100 mid-northern part of the Island (see Figure 1), which consists of four river basins. A large part of the 101 area belongs to Central Java Province, which stretches through several local government authorities 102 (or municipalities) that are categorized as either regencies or cities. The existence of arterial and toll 103 roads in the northern corridor is a leading infrastructural boost to rapid economic development in 104 the area. Accordingly, some emerging threats on the functions of river basins are mostly triggered 105 by uncontrolled population growth. Such growth results in the reduction of non-built-up areas, as 106 forest and agriculture lands are converted to settlement and industrial zones. 107 Pemali-Comal, Bodri Kuto, Wiso Gelis, and Jratunseluna River Basins cover a total area of 108 16.403 sq. km that cuts across four cities (Tegal, Pekalongan, Semarang, and Salatiga) and 17 regencies 109 (Brebes, Tegal, Pemalang, Pekalongan, Batang, Kendal, Temanggung, Demak, Jepara, Kudus, Pati, 110 Rembang, Blora, Grobogan, Sragen, and Boyolali, Semarang) (Figure 1). Table 1 explains the main 111 features of these basins. Jratunseluna is the biggest river basin in the study area. It is a National 112 Strategic River Basin with several vital functions and a significant number of people living in the 113 area. . Indeed, proper governance/institutional setting are very crucial in managing the basins 114 considering that the river basin areas are not administratively based.

115 Table 1. River Basins in the Northern Coast of Central Java Territorial Population River Basin Area (sq. km) Watershed Areas of Jurisdiction 10 Regencies, 2 Cities 8.9 million Jratunseluna 9.216 69 (2.231 Villages/Kelurahans) 1 Regency 1.2 million Wiso-Gelis 663 27 (92 Villages/Kelurahans) 3 Regencies 1.3 million Bodri-Kuto 1.662 12 (396 Villages/Kelurahans) 4 Regencies, 2 Cities 6.9 million Pemali-Comal 4.860 32 (961 Villages/Kelurahans) 116 *Kelurahan refers to a village that is located in a city 117 Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 22

118

119 Figure 1. Study Area

120 In general, as shown in Figure 2, rainfall in the four river basins fluctuated over nine years 121 period. In most cities and regencies in which all basins, except for Pemali-Comal, are located, the 122 rainfall increased from 2009, reaching its peak in 2010, followed by a sharp decline the year after. In 123 Jratunseluna, there were some critical years in which the frequency of rainfall was the highest 2010, 124 2013, and 2016. Rainfall in Bodri Kuto River Basin went up and down widely over nine years. In 2010, 125 2014, and 2016, the rainfall in Bodri Kuto continued to increased, peaking at approximately 3600 126 mm/year. In contrast, the average rainfall in Pemali-Comal River Basin considerably increased in 2012 127 and 2015 and then remained constant until 2018. However, the data on the rainfall pattern in Wiso- 128 Gelis River Basin, which only covers one regency and was generated from only one climatological 129 station, is different when compared to other river basins. A steady increase was observed from 2009 130 to 2011 and 2012 to 2015, followed by a decrease in 2016. 131

132 Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 22

133 Source: Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (MCGA) and Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) 2009- 134 2018 135 *No data available in Wiso Gelis (2014, 2017, 2018) 136 **Rainfall data in Wiso-Gelis (collected from one climatology station), Jratunseluna (9 climatology stations), Bodri-Kuto 137 (4 climatology stations), Pemali-Comal (7 climatology stations)

138 Figure 2. Rainfall in the Study Area 2009-2018

139 2.2 Methods of Data Collection

140 2.2.1. Spatial Data 141 Remote sensing data was used to produce Land-Use-Land Cover (LULC) map for 2009 and 2018 142 with a resolution of 30 x 30 m to assess the LULC change in Central Java North Coast. In addition, 143 watershed data was used to delineate the river basin area according to Presidential Decree and 144 Ministry Regulation. Table 2 explains detail of spatial data that were processed for the analysis.

145 Table 2. Spatial Data Collection No Data Type Year Data Format Source Landsat 8 Satellite 2009 and United States Geological Survey 1 Image Image 2018 (USGS) Presidential Decree No. 12/2012 Watershed 2 2018 Shapefile Ministry of Environment and delineation Forestry

146 2.2.2. Urban and Rural Classification Data 147 Rural and urban areas are classified based on administrative jurisdiction, Central Bureau of 148 Statistics (CBS) criteria [30], as well as the direction of built-up area expansion. These resulted into 149 three classifications, namely urban, potentially urban and rural areas. An area is classified as urban 150 when its administrative jurisdiction lies in the city or the capital of a regency. Meanwhile, a 151 potentially urban area refers to any area categorized as rural-urban according to the CBS criteria, in 152 which its rural-urban potential is also considered (see Table 3). 153 To further comprehend the classification explained in Table 3, it is important to note that a 154 village is the lowest administrative jurisdiction in Indonesia. Accordingly, there are three types of 155 villages based on their rural and urban status. The first is desa, which are villages located in a regency 156 and characterized as rural. The second is kelurahan, which are categorized as urban villages and are 157 located in a city. Third, some villages are characterized as urban according to the CBS criteria, yet 158 they are referred to as desa instead of kelurahan. Therefore, they are categorized as potentially urban. 159 Another essential differentiation of desa and kelurahan is that the local residents elect the head of desa, 160 while the head of kelurahan is appointed by the mayor or regent, both of which are government 161 employees.

162 Table 3. Rural and Urban Classifications No Classification Definition Delineation Consist of kelurahan (located in cities) and Jurisdiction based on government 1 Urban area urban villages regulation (as capital of regency) • CBS scoring [30] based on census data Consist of villages (desa) 2010 that is calculated according to Potentially Urban which are characterized 2 selected variables, including Area as urban, located in population density, percentage of regencies farming households, percentage of Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 22

No Classification Definition Delineation households served by electricity, percentage of households served by telephone network, access to main urban facilities, and access to supporting facilities (also explained in [7]) • Neighboring villages of the rural- urban area 2010 that has built-up area more than 28.6% in 2018 (the number is based on the average of built-up in the rural-urban area in 2010 (classification no. 3). Consist of villages (desa) 3 Rural Area which located in The rest of the area regencies

163 2.2.3. Disaster Data 164 The primary data source for flood events is the Disaster Management Board (DMB) of Central 165 Java Province. According to DMB, based on Law concerning Disaster Management [26], flood is an 166 event or condition where an area or land is submerged due to increased water volume. Flash flood, 167 also known as fluvial flood, involves sudden water discharge in large volume caused by river flow 168 obstruction. The DMB flood data is based on a compilation of reports from local (City/Regency) 169 government informing the location (name of villages/kelurahan), duration, depth, and damage/loss 170 status. However, not all local government report the events as it is not an obligatory procedure. 171 Accordingly, this study also investigated data on flood events and fatalities that were published by 172 mass media websites or other institutions and used them to validate formal data released by the 173 government. The internet-based data were collected using three keywords via Google search engine: 174 flood, name of the district or city concerned, and the year of occurrence. 175 Data collection on flood events was done by looking for news articles that contain information 176 on flood location (sub-district and village or kelurahan), time of occurrence, height of inundation, the 177 time required for inundation to recede (duration of inundation), and the magnitude of impact or loss 178 due to flooding. Information search regarding flood events in regencies/cities and the specified year 179 were deemed to be completed when the search engine (Google) detects that no more articles related 180 to the keywords were found. 181 The news reports on flood events from 2009 to 2018 were collected, totaling in 2,123 news pieces 182 from approximately 98 sources, including the mass media or institutional website. The total number 183 of flood events was 1925, of which 1609 were reported by one news source (single rapporteur), while 184 the rest were reported by more than one news source (joint rapporteur). Table 4 describes the number 185 of total incidents reported from five sources that had the largest contribution in disaster news. Formal 186 government report only covers around 52% of the total incidents, showing that a significant number 187 of incidents took place yet they were not formally reported to the authorized government.

188 Table 4. Largest Contribution of Flood Data Sources

Sources Total Incidents Reported Contributions (%) Formal Government Report Disaster Management Board 1104 52.00 of Central Java Province Online Newspapers Tribune News 107 5.04 Kompas 86 4.05 Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 22

Sources Total Incidents Reported Contributions (%) Sindo Newa 63 2.97 Detik News 60 2.83 Others Media (85 Media which reported less than 60 incidents) 703 33.11 Total 2.123 100

189 2.3 Methods of Data Analyses 190 This study uses two types of analysis: spatial data and non-spatial data analysis (Figure 3). The 191 spatial analysis is focused on assessing LULC change in 2009-2018 based on Landsat Imagery. The 192 non-spatial data (i.e. rural-urban classification and flood events) were overlaid with the results of 193 spatial data analyses. 194 LULC is classified into five types based on the Indonesian National Standard Regulation [27], 195 namely the built-up, industry, rice fields, forest, and mix plantations (see Table 5). Supervised 196 classification was done on land cover imagery, in which the training sample was determined using 197 Maximum Likelihood Classification in ArcGIS. The accuracy of tentative LULC produced in this step 198 was confirmed through field observations and using the instrument conformity table, totaling in 306 199 observation points. This was then used to improve LULC interpretation. 200

201 202 Figure 3. Analytical Method Flowchart Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 22

203 As illustrated in Figure 3, the result of spatial data analysis was overlaid with two data attributes 204 at the village level; i.e. rural-urban classification and flood events. This step combined urban-rural 205 classification data (as explained in Table 5) and flood events with river basin classification and land- 206 use change in 2009-2018. In the next stage, descriptive analysis was conducted to identify and the 207 relationship between land use change, i.e. from built-up to non-built up areas, with the occurrence of 208 flood over nine years period. In this case, a matrix composed of four elements, including river basin, 209 urban-rural status, land use change and flood events, was generated. The built-up areas consist of 210 settlements and industrial areas, while the non-built up area include forests, rice fields and mix- 211 plantations.

212 Table 5. Land Use Classification in Study Area

Land use type Description Built-up - Land covered by buildings, dominated by grey color, are likely to cluster Settlement and/or to be built around the road network. Built-up - Industry Land covered by big buildings, dominated by light grey/white color, are likely to cluster and/or to be built around the road network. Rice field Land for agricultural with or without slopping terraces, dominated by light green color, mostly characterized as dike pattern with a smooth texture Forest Natural and man-made forests, approximately 75% covered by trees, dominated by dark green color and a rough texture. Mix Plantation Different types of vegetation with various density, the color and texture are in between that of rice fields and forest. 213 Source: Authors, developed from SNI 7645 [27]

214 3. Results or Outcomes

215 3.1 Land Use Change in the Northern Coast of Java 2009-2018 216 Significant urban expansion has taken place in the Northern Coast of Java. Land conversion 217 growth rate for each river basin based on its rural-urban classification is listed in Table 6. Each basin 218 has a particular growth rate pattern. Bodri Kuto River Basin experienced the most critical changes (up 219 to 108%) over nine years compared to the others, which means that massive built-up development 220 occurred in this river basin in terms of settlements and industrial area. It is then followed by 221 Jratunseluna River Basin, which built-up area has expanded from 1,222 to 1,581 sq. km since 2009 to 222 2018. Most of the expansion took place in the urban area at approximately 137%. Meanwhile, the 223 development of Pemali Comal River Basin mostly occurred in the potentially urban area (43.31%), 224 specifically in Tegal and Pekalongan Regency. The growth of the built-up area in Wiso-Gelis was 225 significantly higher in the rural area (36.13%) than in the potentially urban (17.54%) and urban 226 (10.08%) areas. This scenario is indicative that substantial urbanization within the study area [7] has 227 led to significant land conversion that expanded to rural areas surrounding the urban centers. On the 228 governance side, administrative autonomy, which devolves the authority over land use allocation to 229 local government, has left land conversion uncontrolled due to a lack of coordination among local 230 governments.

231 Table 6. Land Conversion in the Selected River Basins 2009-2018 Area (sq. km) Average Annual River Basin 2009 2018 Change (%) Growth Rate (%) Built-Up Built-Up Jratunseluna 1222.58 1581.26 29.34 3.26 Urban 89.19 211.93 137.62 15.29 Potentially Urban 330.88 467.69 41.35 4.59 Rural 802.51 901.64 12.35 1.37 Wiso-Gelis 70.72 89.81 26.99 3.00 Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 22

Area (sq. km) Average Annual River Basin 2009 2018 Change (%) Growth Rate (%) Built-Up Built-Up Urban 2.38 2.62 10.08 1.12 Potentially Urban 31.42 36.93 17.54 1.95 Rural 36.92 50.26 36.13 4.01 Bodri Kuto 117.17 244.56 108.72 12.08 Urban 12.34 17.4 41.00 4.56 Potentially Urban 41.51 88.39 112.94 12.55 Rural 63.32 138.77 119.16 13.24 Pemali-Comal 556.14 670.71 20.60 2.29 Urban 63.27 69.7 10.16 1.13 Potentially Urban 204.47 293.02 43.31 4.81 Rural 288.4 307.99 6.79 0.75 232 233 The land conversion status for each river basin varies. Bodri-Kuto River Basin experienced the 234 highest rate of land conversion tobuilt-up areas over nine years, followed by Jratunseluna, Wiso-Gelis 235 and Pemali Comal, respectively. The highest increase in built-up area is in the urban area of 236 Jratunseluna River Basin. In contrary, in Pemali Comal and Bodri Kuto River Basin, there was 237 significant increase of built-up area in the potentially urban area, specifically in Tegal and Kendal 238 Regency. 239 As illustrated in Figure 4, the increase of built-up area was not only concentrated in urban areas. 240 The three river basins showed that there was a significant development in potentially urban and rural 241 areas during the 2009-2018 period. Thus, growth in potentially urban areas is also influenced by 242 nearby urban activities. Accordingly, urban expansion is extended to areas surrounding the city 243 centers even though there are more vacant lands available for use. Toll road development and 244 industrial zone establishment have very much influenced the growth and direction of land 245 conversion. To illustrate this, the land allocation for industrial lands in Bodri-Kuto increased 246 significantly, from less than 10 sq. km to more than 60 sq. km. This is then followed by the expansion 247 of residential and commercial activities in surrounding areas to accommodate the needs of industrial 248 employees.

249

250 Figure 4. Land Conversion, 2009-2018 Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 22

251 Figure 5 further illustrates land-use changes in several types of land allocation. Rice fields, 252 forests and mix plantations are dominant throughout the river basins. However, there was a 253 considerable loss of mix plantation land in most of the river basins, except in Jratunseluna. Bodri-Kuto 254 experienced the highest loss of mix plantation areas (that is up to 221 sq. km between 2009 and 2018), 255 followed by Pemali-Comal (13.98%) and Wiso-Gelis (3.28%). In all river basins, the loss of mix 256 plantation areas occurred in potentially urban areas, for example in Tegal, Pekalongan and Demak 257 Regency. Despite the significant reduction of land use for mix plantations, Figure 4 depicts that there 258 was a slight increase in the rural forest area in Bodri-Kuto which went up to approximately 53 sq. km 259 over nine years. Growth of forest area within some river basins in Central Java is in line with the 260 enacted regulations of the Governor of Central Java [29] and the Minister of Environment and 261 Forestry Regulation [30]. The regulation provides evidence that a policy should serve as a strategic 262 instrument in controlling land allocation and improving river performance. 263 The increase of built-up areas, especially in certain regencies or rural areas, occurred because 264 land has been converted into rural-urban potential areas and, and at some point, urban areas. Within 265 this scenario, in the nearest future Java will become an urban island, in which whereas built-up areas 266 will expand from the downstream to the upstream, overall creating problems in the environment). 267 Based on the built-up ratio in 2018 (which categorizes the area as a rural-urban potential area), more 268 than 600,000 inhabitants are spread throughout approximately 250 villages. This indicates that more 269 rural areas have been urbanized due to the increasing population and expanding built-up areas. For 270 example, Pati Regency the highest number of villages belonging to the potentially urban areas (129 271 villages), followed by Kudus Regency, where 113 villages are potentially categorized as urban area. 272 Both regencies are located at the downstream of Jratunseluna river basin. 273

274 275 Figure 5. Land Use Change in the Selected River Basins, 2009-2018

276 3.2 Flood Events based on River Basins 277 The frequency of flood in the four river basins fluctuates. There are limited data for flood events 278 in the initial years, 2009-2011, because the local disaster management board has yet been established 279 and the mass online media have not been widely used in reporting disaster news in details. 280 Accordingly, in 2009-2011, a small number of floods occurred in all areas, including in the urban, 281 rural-urban and rural areas (Figure 6). There was an increased number of flooding in the rural and 282 urban areas in 2012 and 2013 since of the disaster data report has been updated. In addition, in 2014, Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 22

283 flood occurrence sharply increased, especially for the rural-urban areas. In the rural areas alone, there 284 were more than 200 incidents of flooding reported. Two most prominent river basins in the study 285 area, Jratunseluna and Pemali Comal River Basin, contribute to a high number of flood events. 286 Specifically, up to 2014, a majority of flood events in the Jratunseluna River Basin happened in 287 namely Pati, Kudus and Jepara Regency. Meanwhile, in the Pemali-Comal river basin, Pekalongan 288 Regency contributes to a massive number of flood incidents. 289 It is notable that the peak of flood events in North Coast of Central Java occurred in 2014, 290 followed by a dramatic drop in 2015 and a steady increase afterwards up to 2018. On average, the 291 height of flood in the study area is 20-40 cm. The flood duration varies from less than one hour to 292 more than 24 hours. In more details, 56 out of 925 flood events analyzed in this study reached a 293 height of 1.5 meters or more and are categorized as severe flooding. This occurred mainly in Pati 294 Regency, Rembang Regency and Semarang City, which are part of the Jratunseluna River Basin, and 295 in several cities or regencies within Pemali Comal River Basin, including Pekalongan City and 296 Pemalang Regency. In particular, the worst flood reached up to 3.5 meters in Pemalang Regency in 297 2018. In addition, 259 flood events that went up to 1-meter height, most frequently in Kudus, 298 Pekalongan and Jepara Regency. 299 Figure 6 presents the number of floods in the urban, potentially urban and rural areas 300 surrounding river basins over the past nine years. It is evident that flood mostly took place in the 301 rural areas rather than in the urban and rural urban areas. The total number of flood events in urban, 302 rural-urban and rural areas in 2009-2018 is 485, 642 and 798 incidents respectively. Flooding is very 303 much influenced by rainfall intensity. The expansion of urbanization promotes flooding due to the 304 increase of the total impervious areas, leading to excessive rainfall. In addition, disaster risk reduction 305 initiatives are also of importance. 306

250

200

150

100

50 Number of EventsFlood 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Years

Urban Potentially Urban Rural 307 308 *Flood events data in 2009-2011 are highly depend on online news due to limited data from DMB

309 Figure 2. Flood Events in Urban, Potentially Urban and Rural Areas 310 in the North Coast of Central Java 2009-2018

311 In the study area, flood events occurred during the rainy seasons. It was identified that 70% of 312 flood events happened in January to March, during which the highest frequency of rainfall was 313 reported, especially in 2014. For example, Pekalongan Regency contributed to the most significant 314 flood events in 2014 (around 45%). According to the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical 315 Agency [31] the highest rainfall in Pekalongan Regency was recorded in January – February at 991 mm 316 and 1,117 mm per month, respectively. In contrast, the rate of rainfall in the same month of the 317 previous and following years was lower, at approximately 500-800 mm per month [32,33]. As 318 revealed by other studies on rainfall patterns, since 2003, Java Island had a shorter term and higher 319 intensity of rainfall [34]. Siswanto and Supari [35] revealed that extreme rainfall in Java tends to be Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 22

320 irregular, in which such event is spatially distributed across the island and the positive and negative 321 trends are proportional. 322 Figure 7 further illustrates flood events in each river basin. Jratunseluna, the biggest river basin, 323 experiences the highest number of floods compared to other river basins. The flood events are 324 concentrated in specific flood-prone area, namely Pati Regency, Kudus Regency and Semarang City, 325 all of which represent the rural, potentially urban, and urban characteristics within Jratunseluna River 326 Basin. In total, there were 1,057 flood events in Jratunseluna River Basin, accounting for up to 48% of 327 total flooding in the rural area over nine years. The rural area of Pati Regency contributes to the 328 highest frequency of flood events, amounting to 219 out of 509 events spread out through 88 rural 329 villages. In addition, up to 31% of flood events in Jratunseluna happened in the potentially urban area, 330 with Kudus Regency experiencing the highest flood frequency with 102 flood events spread 331 throughout 28 villages. In urban areas, the highest frequency of flood events was recorded in 332 Semarang City, which contributes up to 80% of total urban flood events spread throughout 26 333 kelurahan in 2009-2018. Flood events in the urban area remain to increase considerably over nine 334 years, in contrast to the fluctuating flood in rural and potentially urban areas. The worst flood event 335 in Jratunseluna River Basin took place in Grobogan Regency in 2013, which inundated approximately 336 5,000 houses due to broken embankments. Demak Regency was also hit by the severe flooding (1-2 337 meters in height) in 2017, forcing 1,450 households to abandon their homes. Thus, from the 338 Jratunseluna condition, it concludes that flood mostly happens in the rural area compared to the 339 urban and potentially urban area, which have a lower number of flood events. 340 Similarly, the flood events in Pemali-Comal River Basin peaked in 2014, with up to 236 incidents. 341 In total, there were 671 incidents throughout 2009-2018 in the region, spreading through 290 villages 342 dominantly categorized as potentially urban areas. In detail, the number of flood events in potentially 343 urban area within Pemali Comal River Basin is up to 269 flood events, which contribute to 344 approximately 40% of total incidents. There was also a significant growth of built-up areas in the 345 potentially urban areas within Pemali-Comal River Basin, which is about 39%, followed by a rise in 346 flood events in those areas. Pekalongan had the most significant number of flood events compared to 347 other regencies, with 154 incidents spread throughout 46 potentially urban villages. In respected to 348 flood events in rural area, Pekalongan Regency also contributes to the most significant number (43%) 349 of total incidents. In Pemali Comal and Jratunseluna River Basin, flood incidents in the urban area are 350 lower than in the rural and potentially urban area. Interestingly, floods events in Pekalongan City is 351 higher than in other cities/regencies, which contribute up to 30% from total incidents in the urban 352 area. Additionally, Tegal City and Brebes Regency also contribute to high number of floods at 353 approximately 25% and 24% of overall urban floods, respectively. Thus, it proves that most villages 354 on the coast of Pekalongan and Tegal Greater Area are prone to flood. More than 10 floods events 355 occurred over nine years in the most flood prone villages within both river basins. Severe flooding in 356 Pemali Comal River Basin took place in Pemalang Regency in 2018. Due to river runoff following 357 heavy rainfall, a 3.5-meter flood waters as high as 3.5 meters inundated thousands of houses in 358 several villages. 359 With their smaller size compared to Jratunseluna and Pemali-Comal, there were fewer flood events 360 in Bodri-Kuto and Wiso-Gelis River Basins. In Bodri-Kuto, there was a considerable fluctuation of flood 361 events from 2009 to 2017, which peaked in 2018 with 53 flood events. Approximately 90% of flood 362 events in this river basin occurred in Kendal Regency, while the rest were in Semarang City. The urban 363 area of Bodri-Kuto River Basin has the highest contribution of flood events at 60% of total flood events 364 spread throughout 16 villages. It mainly occurred in Kendal Regency, where 13 flood events were 365 reported at the village level. As noted by the Disaster Management Agency [36], flooding in Kendal 366 urban area was caused by river runoff and low drainage capacity for water conveyance. Meanwhile, 367 there was a slightly increase in flood events in potentially urban and rural villages in Bodri-Kuto, 368 amounting to 36 and 37 flood events during the nine-year period, respectively. The worst flood in 369 Bodri-Kuto River Basin took place in Kendal Regency in early 2014, during which almost ten districts 370 were affected by a 1.5-meter flood. Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of 22

371 Similarly, Wiso-Gelis as the smallest river basin experienced the worst flood around 1-1.5 meters 372 in height in 2014. The flood submerged 990 houses in Jepara Regency. In total, 17 flood events were 373 recorded from 2009-2018. This shows that flood events mainly occurred in four villages within the 374 rural and urban areas, in which with the number of flood events in the rural area was slightly higher 375 than in the urban area. Accordingly, there is an indication that floods occur only occasionally in the 376 potentially urban areas of the river basin. Since 2016, flooding in Wiso-Gelis River Basin has been 377 trending negatively, as shown by the decreasing number of flood events in the urban, potentially 378 urban and rural areas of this river basin.

379 380 Figure 7. Urbanization and Flood Events in the Four Selected River Basins

381 3.3 Land Use Change and Flood Phenomenon in River Basins

382 The population in Java has significantly grown from four million (at the beginning of the 19th 383 century) to 40 million (in the early 20th century), to more than 150 million inhabitants in 2018 [37,38]. 384 Moreover, the population in our study are has increased from 17.1 million in 2009 to 18.3 million lives 385 in 2018. Population growth led to significant land conversion and deforestation, which create an 386 impact on water cycle and rainfall pattern. Longer dry seasons lead to significant water supply 387 problems as the area keeps developing and experiencing rapid population growth. A previous study 388 showed that during the dry seasons (June and July), the rainfall pattern in a wide area in most part 389 in Indonesia, including Central Java, tend to deviate from its normal conditions. 390 The overall contributions of land use and flood events over nine years (between 2009 and 2018) 391 in four river basins are shown in Table 7. Approximately 80% of the river basin areas belong to the 392 non-built-up area, which consists of rice fields, forests and mixed plantation area. However, over the 393 same time, the overall built-up area also increased significantly in all river basins while the non-built 394 up decreased. Bodri-Kuto River Basin shows the highest loss in non-built up area. In 2018, the non- 395 built up area contributed to 85% of the total area within this river basin, while in 2009 the percentage 396 was higher. Nonetheless, there was an upward trend of non-built up area in urban part of 397 Jratunseluna in 2018, which was sharply expanded up to 30%. In contrast, the non-built up area in all 398 other river basins showed a downward trend. The rise of the non-built up area in urban part of the 399 Jratunseluna River Basin was caused by the transformation of settlement areas into mixed plantations Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 22

400 or wetlands. For example, in the shoreline of Semarang City and Demak Regency, the increase of non- 401 built up area occurred due to erosion in the area [40]. Accordingly, coastal erosion and inundation 402 have caused a substantial loss of coastal land surrounding Demak Regency. Water as Leverage for 403 Resilient Cities Asia Program Report [41] explained that Semarang’s dynamic shoreline is shifting 404 faster over the last decade due to the changing climate and land subsidence, eroding mangrove areas, 405 fishponds, villages and city assets. Also, the area of Demak Regency has experienced the most 406 significant coastal erosion and loss of mangroves and aquaculture.

407 Table 7. Contribution of Land Use and Flood Events in the Study Areas

408 409 A significant exposure of flood is taken place in the urban and potentially urban areas following 410 the increase of built-up areas (Table 7). Flood events are more frequent in the urban and potentially 411 urban areas, most of which are located nearby the coastal line. This is also in line with a previous 412 study by Rudiarto et al., [7] where 40% of flooding events were found within the range of 10 km from 413 the coastline, while 80% of tidal flooding was distributed mostly in the areas of less than 5 km from 414 the coastline. Flooding is a result of various factors, and urban flooding mostly take place not only 415 because of water overflowing from the river (fluvial flooding) but also due to land conversion in 416 combination with weak drainage system (pluvial flooding). As Flooding is more common in the 417 urbanized area, which means that densification has a significant influence on the increasing event of 418 pluvial flooding. Densification is typically occurred due to the conversion of agricultural land into 419 settlement and industrial land, leaving a lot of the areas vulnerable to flooding [42]. It is likely that 420 the number of rainy days significantly decreases with higher rain intensity. This is very much 421 influences the surface water runoff and put more pressure on river and drainage systems. Robust 422 and adaptive drainage arrangements, therefore, is of importance in this circumstance. 423 Despite the pluvial flooding (which happens mostly in urban fabric area), fluvial flooding 424 (which occurs because of the overbank of the water from the river) has a significant influence in rural- 425 urban and rural areas. In this regard, it is caused by a land-use change that transforms forests in the 426 rural area into a built-up area. Some rural areas have been hit by intensive flooding, especially in the 427 Jratunseluna and Wiso-Gelis River Basin, which contribute to more than 40% of the total flood events 428 over nine years (Table 7). However, flooding in this region is not only connected to deforestation but Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 22

429 also to in situ urbanization process. Handayani [43] found that industrialization from below (industry 430 that starts from rural area) is happening in Central Java. This type of industrialization may potentially 431 lead to the increase of flood risk in areas that are not necessarily located in the big urban center.

432 4. Discussion and Issues Emerging from The Study 433 The results that emerged from this study has some particular urban development and policy 434 implications. The study reflect that land use dynamics would depend on policy decisions and 435 implementations for improvement. Sufficient comprehension on policies at the river basin level is an 436 essential prerequisite in flood risk management. For the sake of solution-oriented discussions, two 437 issues emerged from this study. First, the need to create a better understanding on urbanization and 438 flooding phenomenon to raise more solution-oriented awareness through land use policy. This is 439 crucial, especially in countries like Indonesia. This is why the authors have put an emphasis on 440 Indonesia through the use of case studies. Second, there is a need to identify the role of governance 441 in flood management, particularly in curbing urban flooding. Both issues are discussed further in the 442 following sub-sections.

443 4.1 River Basins have Dual Spatial Identity that Embrace Policy and Land Use Issues in the Urban System 444 Knowledge concerning river basins dynamics in the urban system is still vague. It is, in most 445 cases, simply viewed as a landscape or an appendage of water bodies [44]. Though it is often used as 446 a point of departure when discussing several issues related to urbanization, it is unduly taken for 447 granted in terms of its functions in the urban system. The analytical aspect of this study offers a 448 renewed systematic way of looking at river basins as a sub-ecosystem embedded within the urban 449 system, and as a concept in the urban discourse. As can be deduced from the case presented in this 450 study (at least in the context of Java), river basins have a dual spatial identity in the urban system. It 451 is both a natural land object, as well as a form of land use. 452 A river basin is a part of the land because it is a section of the “earth surface with all physical, 453 chemical and biological features” [45] (p. xix). It can be viewed as a land object because it is uniquely 454 embedded to (as well as a natural embodiment of) the physical urban system, and yet are 455 distinguishable in legal (invisible) ecosystems recognized in policies, laws and statutes. In fact, within 456 the land administration system, the river basin can be categorized as a cadastral object and as a 457 unique legal entity, which can be both fiat (i.e. invisible) and bona fide (i.e. visible). It has a boundary 458 and can be surveyed and measured in physical, ecological, socioeconomic, and cultural terms. It can 459 also be viewed as a “property” because it is the embodiment of several “set of rights and a set of 460 duties or obligations” (including interests and privileges) that subsist in the urban land, which the 461 urban people expect to leverage or enjoy [46] (p. 2). Hence, it has various forms of values attached to 462 it — including ecological, economic, political, cultural, social, touristic, aesthetic, and other urban 463 functional values. As a result, a river basin should be viewed as a portion of land meant to be 464 administered, managed, and controlled to ensure that it fulfils its function within the urban system. 465 In this regard, floods are negative consequences of the relationship between a river basin and its 466 urban surroundings, which make the area unavailable for urban people. 467 River basins also constitute an essential type of land use in the urban system. The perspective of 468 conceiving the river basins for land use is best illustrated by answering the question: why do urban 469 people want to live around the river basins? In the context of Java, the river basin is a sub-system that 470 embodies vegetation and waterways required for food, energy, water, biodiversity, and shelter, 471 among many others. It serves a cooling effect in the urban heat island concerns [47]. Hence, river 472 basins constitute land use because they are part of the decisions people make regarding land or 473 natural resources available to them within permissible natural and administrative restrictions. Land 474 use is, therefore, a purposeful intervention by humans concerning what and how to exploit, explore, 475 protect or conserve aspects of the land system [48,49]. Urban river basins are, therefore, subject to 476 land use adoptable by urban people according to permissible natural and legal (or administrative) 477 characteristics, leading to transformations in the way they live in the urban system. Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 16 of 22

478 How does the above idea relate to tackling urban flooding? River basins land use that comes 479 with dual spatial identities (both as a land object and land use in the urban system) offers an 480 opportunity to mitigate flooding, mostly in coastal areas, as well as to pose as a threat if it is not 481 managed well. Based on the case of Java, it can be argued that built-up area expansion to the upstream 482 area of the river basins lead to significant negative consequences. Not only it threatens the food and 483 water supply sustainability (referring to river basin as land), but it also generates issues in 484 infrastructure provisions (such as to manage flood) and ownership due to rapid settlement growth 485 in areas that play a strategic role in the river system (conflict of interest regarding land use). 486 Chen et al. [50] argued that, based on the experience in China, the sprawling built-up land 487 increase the difficulty and costs to deploy and manage hazard-resistant infrastructure, construction- 488 wise. Accordingly, the compact city concept is perceived as the most sustainable urban form to limit 489 uncontrolled effects of infrastructure provision caused by the need to contain urban growth. Sprawl 490 development in many cities globally usually leads to an increasing load of emission because of the 491 increased use of transportation. However, what is usually not written much about is that sprawl 492 development causes problems that limit water conveyance and supply. Rudiarto et al. [7] stated that 493 urbanization in the north of Central Java has been very significant since the 1990s. This is followed 494 by the increase of climate disasters, as shown by incessant floods. Handayani and Rudiarto [51] have 495 further examined this phenomenon in Semarang Metropolitan as the biggest urban center in the area. 496 In this regard, Douglass [2] argued that it creates an urban disaster in Asia, that is, a situation where 497 agglomerations affect urban areas. Thus, there lies an urgent call to focus on managing urban growth 498 in an integrated framework following an ecosystem-based (or eco-based) regional approach. An eco- 499 based approach would involve conceiving the river basins as unique ecosystems, and employing a 500 wide range of ecosystem management activities to reduce the vulnerability of urban people and 501 urban environment due to flooding. In this regard, the approach would tackle urban challenges that 502 arise from the location of river basins. Hence, whereas flooding is a critical problem linked to the 503 river basins, it can be mitigated as part of broader ecological system management. 504 Focusing on the use of urban infrastructure provision to check flood events, Zhou et al. [19] have 505 shown through their study that the drainage system is vital in reducing the risk of urban flood. Based 506 on several cases in major cities in Northern China, they [19] revealed that frequency of flooding is 507 caused by a lack of or failure of the urban drainage system. A similar case in the UK [52] revealed 508 that drainage is essential in reducing flood risk since flooding is very much influenced by urban 509 densification and changing rainfall pattern. Accordingly, a proper drainage system is very critical to 510 accommodate water conveyance during intensive rainfall. Even though there is still much debate on 511 this matter in Indonesia, just as in the UK, there is evidence of a change in rain pattern in Java due to 512 rapid urban growth and deforestation [53,37]. Likely, the number of rainy days is significantly 513 decreasing with a higher intensity of rain. This very much influences the surface water runoff and 514 puts more pressure on river and drainage systems. Such situation requires robust and adaptive 515 drainage arrangements.

516 4.2 There are Several Opportunities to Broaden the Role of Governance in Flood Management 517 Any serious effort to tackle urban flooding induced or influenced by river basins demands the 518 problematization of river basins, that is, viewing them as a problem that requires a solution. This is 519 important in urban policymaking or urban reform efforts targeted towards urban flood management. 520 Historically, river basin development “has been used to structure water resource management” [54] 521 (p. 839). Evidence from cases presented in this study shows that the management of river basins, if 522 geared towards solving the flood problems, would have a mitigative effect in controlling the 523 situation. 524 Understanding the opportunities available in flood management through governance should be 525 a critical aspect of urban development. The governance of river basins in particular, or water 526 resources in general, would allow urban administrators to explore various technical and socio- 527 political strategies to mitigate flood at various levels (basin, local, regional and national). 528 Consequently, a governance approach capable of addressing both general urban issues and flood Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 17 of 22

529 challenges is imperative. Governance-related urban policy instruments can serve as an essential 530 factor in ensuring proper flood intervention to manage urbanization and flood prevention. In this 531 regard, Friend et al. [55] argued that there is always a gap between policy planning and 532 implementation, while there is a need for communication and negotiation among actors. 533 In the context of Java, such interactions are even more critical in respect to flood prevention, as 534 there are many authorities with different roles and functions in managing the river basins (Figure 8). 535 Both vertical and horizontal coordination are needed to ensure integrated policies. Vertical 536 coordination is essential because the National Government (i.e. Ministry of Public Works through 537 River Management Centre) is responsible in managing the rivers from upstream to downstream 538 while the drainage systems that cross through two different regencies are under the responsibility of 539 the Provincial Government. Institutions at different level of authority need to work intensively with 540 the local governments (cities and regencies) in regards to the river basin management. This involves 541 spatial planning policies that include various infrastructure provisions that are under the local 542 government authority. Accordingly, horizontal coordination is also crucial, mostly because urban 543 expansion due to rapid urbanization takes place beyond the administrative jurisdiction. Indeed, 544 integration and collaborations would enable more sustained urbanization. 545 In principle, the governance arrangement reflects subsidiarity. Each level deals with a specific 546 role and decision making is made at both the top and the lowest level. However, in practice (and 547 focusing on river basin), decision making in water management is not made at the lowest level, where 548 water is used. The national and provincial authorities are the ones who carry out the roles of river 549 management and drainage systems, respectively. This, therefore, leads to the need for better 550 interagency collaborations to allow for effective communication and co-designing of strategies for 551 action.

552 553 Figure 8. Roles and Responsibilities Related to River Management and Land Use Allocation

554 It is essential to introduce governance in flood management. However, this is a relatively new 555 concept that has yet been discussed further [56,2]. The term becomes vital in the current situation 556 because the issue of flooding cannot be solved by one sole organization. After all, it is a multifaceted 557 challenge that affects housing, farming and forestry as well as transport, among many others. It 558 requires an effective decision-making process that involves various sectors and authorities. It also 559 prompts for integrated approaches that are certainly not limited to infrastructural work [57,58]. For 560 this reason, Hegger et al. [13] categorized five types of strategies in flood risk management: flood risk 561 prevention, flood defense, flood risk mitigation, flood preparation and flood recovery. According to 562 Hegger’s strategy typology, land-use change should be controlled through proper spatial planning 563 and this may serve as a policy instrument for flood risk prevention. However, it is interesting to note 564 that based on Hegger et al.’s [13] and Raikes et al.’s [59] investigation in selected countries across the 565 globe, there is still a lack of integration among different types of strategies in place. Policies related Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 18 of 22

566 to water supply, flood management and spatial planning are also fragmented. Despite that, both 567 scholars [13,59] also argued that fragmentation is inevitable because there are many strategies 568 involved and each country has their own policy direction on flood management, with varying 569 strengths and weaknesses. 570 Raikes et al. [59] reveal that most government policies are too focused on infrastructural work 571 rather than on comprehensive flood prevention (through spatial planning policy). Handayani et al. 572 [16] hold a similar position based on their two case scenarios, also done in Indonesia. Accordingly, 573 Pardoe et al. [57] argued that infrastructural work will not be sufficient to accommodate the balance 574 of land, people, and water interactions. Instead, Pardoe et al. [57] proposed for a holistic policy 575 instrument, which is vital to ensure the availability of a sustainable space for people and water. Many 576 countries around the world have their own country-specific strategy for managing flood situations. 577 The Netherlands with the concept of “Room for the River” [60] (p. 369) and the UK with “Making 578 Space for Water” [61] (p. 534) approach demonstrate a case on how flood could be managed through 579 suitable land use allocation. 580 There is, indeed, a responsibility for the government to provide public infrastructures to mitigate 581 flood events. Infrastructure provision requires not only technical capacity and funding but also 582 proper coordination among different government institutions. A considerable amount of investment 583 allocated for significant infrastructural work for flood prevention will only act as a short-term and 584 reactive solution rather than a long-term one. On the other hand, there is an increasing role of 585 developers since most of the land is owned privately. They are dominant players in developing 586 industrial and housing estates, which is regarded as major land conversion happening within the 587 study area. Accordingly, collaborations with private sectors (landowners) is an excellent opportunity 588 to further manage river basins, mostly to mitigate flood, which is unavoidable in the situation where 589 urbanization (i.e. land conversion) has spread through the whole area.

590 5. Conclusions 591 Limited attention has been paid to the potential effects of river basins on urbanization-associated 592 floods. In general terms, it is well known that “most cities are historically developed near rivers or 593 oceans to ensure the supply of water” [62] (p. 1). It is therefore not surprising that Indonesia — a 594 country surrounded with waters that has many rivers — has cities that are located around waters. 595 Therefore, this study confirms Zhang et al.’s [63] (p. 384) thesis that the process of urbanization 596 “exacerbates flood responses” in low-lying areas. Using this case study, we identified possible urban 597 land use component in the global urban flooding crises. This also implies that rapid urbanization in 598 addition to the lack of land-use planning (or inappropriate implementation of the plan) increases the 599 amount of land exposed to floods [62] (p. 1). One key issue deduced from this study is that there is a 600 relationship between flooding and urbanization. However, such relationship may not always be 601 straightforward. It can vary from country to country depending on their respective planning and 602 development strategies, human behavior or response to flood and urbanization scenarios; and most 603 importantly, the role of governance in the management of floods. From the context of land use and 604 management, this study has shown that the river basin is a linkage factor or object in the flood- 605 urbanization relationship. 606 This study highlights the importance of investigating the role of river basins in impacting flood 607 events in highly urbanized areas. Disaster risk reduction through proper land use planning and 608 controlling is an essential instrument for safeguarding urban areas (such as the case study area, and 609 the entire island of Java in Indonesia). This provides an opportunity to sustain coastal or island 610 settlements and prevent them from being converted into urban islands, which may face complex 611 environmental issues, including extreme precipitation or water-related disasters, and 612 hydrometeorology-associated events. However, without proper management measures, technical 613 measures alone are not sufficient to improve this situation. In this regard, the role of governance in 614 flood management is crucial. This aspect is a missing link in the urban environmental risk 615 management strategy in Indonesia. The country’s decentralization policy, which has been in 616 operation since 1999, has instead led to a cumbersome coordination process for land use allocation, Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 19 of 22

617 instead of a solution-oriented one. The coordination mechanisms have not followed by a proper 618 authority given to the local governments by the decentralization policy. Instead, each local or 619 municipality government has focused on achieving economic development, which is highly 620 dependent on massive land conversion with no recourse to geographical delineations of the river 621 basin. Such action will continue to bring dire environmental consequences, especially given that no 622 appropriate actions are taken to alleviate them. Hence, the effect of urban land-use on extreme 623 precipitation and flooding should be studied more explicitly. The study presented in this paper, 624 therefore, is an urgent call to comprehend urbanization beyond a mere administrative-based process. 625 Urban environmental risks generated from urbanization can be mitigated by understanding their 626 land use components. This study was done with the objective that other scholars around the world 627 (especially in the global south) will be motivated to investigate the role of river basins in other urban 628 areas in search of solutions for sustainable environmental risk governance in urban areas.

629 Author Contributions: All authors have read and agree to the published version of the manuscript. 630 Conceptualization, W.H. and U.E.C.; methodology, W.H. and I.R.; Resources, W.H., I.R., U.E.C., and I.H.S.P.; 631 Formal analysis, W.H., I.R, and I.H.S.P.; Investigation, W.H., I.R., and I.H.S.P.; writing—original draft 632 preparation, W.H., I.R, and I.H.S.P; writing—review and editing, W.H. and U.E.C.; Validation, W.H., I.R., U.E.C., 633 and I.H.S.P.; visualization, I.H.S.P.

634 Funding: This research was funded by University of Diponegoro and Ministry of Research, Technology, and 635 Higher Education, and the APC was funded by Technical University of Munich.

636 Acknowledgments: Acknowledgement is given to the Director General of Higher Education, Ministry of 637 Research and Technology Indonesia, Diponegoro University, and Technical University of Munich for supporting 638 this research. This publication was supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and the Technical 639 University of Munich (TUM) in the framework of the Open Access Publishing Program.

640 Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

641

642 References

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[Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Assistant Editor Assigned 1 message

Janie Liu 17 August 2020 at 12:48 Reply-To: [email protected] To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Janie Liu , Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office

Dear Dr. Handayani,

Your manuscript has been assigned to Janie Liu for further processing who will act as a point of contact for any questions related to your paper.

Journal: Land Manuscript ID: land-916140 Title: Urbanization and Increasing Flood Risk in the Northern Coast of Central Java – Indonesia: an Assessment towards Better Land Use Policy and Flood Management Authors: Wiwandari Handayani , Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri

Received: 14 August 2020 E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]

You can find it here: https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/review_info/006103563f1b73d21369ffe38c9a0c6f

Best regards, Ms. Janie Liu Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected]

-- MDPI Branch Office, Beijing Land Editorial Office E-mail: [email protected] http://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/

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[Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Article Processing Charge Confirmation 1 message

Janie Liu 17 August 2020 at 12:40 Reply-To: [email protected] To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Land Editorial Office

Dear Dr. Handayani,

Thank you very much for submitting your manuscript to Land:

*Please reply us to confirm APC when you receive this email. If you have any questions about APC, please contact with me in time. Thank for your understanding and cooperation.*

Journal name: Land Manuscript ID: land-916140 Type of manuscript: Article Title: Urbanization and Increasing Flood Risk in the Northern Coast of Central Java – Indonesia: an Assessment towards Better Land Use Policy and Flood Management Authors: Wiwandari Handayani, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto, Intan Hapsari Surya Putri Received: 14 August 2020 E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Land, Women, Youths, and Land Tools or Methods https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/special_issues/land_women

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-- MDPI Branch Office, Beijing Land Editorial Office E-mail: [email protected] http://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/

MDPI AG St. Alban-Anlage 66, 4052 Basel Switzerland Tel. +41 61 683 77 34; Fax +41 61 302 89 18 http://www.mdpi.com/ ------Land is affiliated to IALE http://www.landscape-ecology.org/home.html Wiwandari Handayani

Re: Fwd: Re: [Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Submission Received - Please Provide Detailed Point-by-point Responses 6 messages

Janie Liu 24 August 2020 at 21:14 To: "Chigbu, Uchendu" Cc: Land Editorial Office , Wiwandari Handayani

Dear Eugene,

Sorry for bothering you again. The reviewers would like to see the detailed point-by-point responses to the reviewers. Please provide them *within in two days*.

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Best Regards, Janie

Best Regards, Ms. Janie Liu, Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected] ------

On 2020/8/17 14:04, Janie Liu wrote: Dear Eugene,

Thank you for your reply. We will further process this paper.

You will be informed in time if we receive any new feedback.

Have a nice day!

Best Regards, Janie

Best Regards, Ms. Janie Liu, Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected] ------/Land/ is indexed in SSCI - Web of Science and Scopus! Impact Factor: 2.429 (2019) CiteScore 2019 of Land: 2.8 https://www.scopus.com/sourceid/21100811521 ------Call for Review for Land, for more details, please check : https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/announcements ------Land Best Paper Award: https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/awards ------Subscribe Land at: https://susy.mdpi.com/user/subscriptions ------The 8th World Sustainability Forum https://sciforum.net/conference/WSF-8 will be held from 14.-19. September 2020 in Geneva, Switzerland. Register at: http://sci.fo/60c ------

------Forwarded Message ------Subject: Re: [Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Submission Received Date: Fri, 14 Aug 2020 11:44:15 +0000 From: Chigbu, Uchendu To: [email protected] , Cosette Yuan CC: Wiwandari Handayani

Dear Cosette,

Please find attached the responses to reviewers 1, 2, 3 & 4 in one document. It is important to notify the reviewers that this current version is a rewritten manuscript. Also, the four reviewers had contradictory views (even those who rejected it did so on contradictory reasons) of the paper. It is important to put this into consideration while reviewing or editorial decisioning.

Thanks for your editorial help always.

Best wishes,

Eugene

......

Dr.-Ing. Uchendu Eugene Chigbu

Researcher & Doctoral Program Coordinator TechnicalUniversity of Munich, Chair of Land Management, Arcisstraße 21, 80333 Munich, Germany. Tel.: +49 (0)89 289-22518 / Fax: +49 (0)89 289-23933 I Available onITwitter ILinkedIn IResearchgate

I

------

*From:* Land Editorial Office *Sent:* 14 August 2020 09:53 *To:* Chigbu, Uchendu; Wiwandari Handayani *Subject:* Re: [Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Submission Received Dear Eugene,

Thanks for your message. We will correct that. However, we did not receive authors' detailed reply to previous reviewers' comments. Could you please provide it to us today?

I expect your reply soon!

Best Regards, Ms. Cosette Yuan, Land Managing Editor Email: [email protected] ------/Land/ is indexed in SSCI - Web of Science and Scopus! Impact Factor: 2.429 (2019) CiteScore 2019 (Scopus): 2.8.

On 2020/8/14 15:51, Chigbu, Uchendu wrote:

I noticed that the title on the manuscript is not exactly the same as the one used on the submission website. The correct title is on the manuscript (with "Indonesia". The "Indonesia" is missing in the title used on the website.

Can "Land" correct this?

Best wishes,

Eugene

......

Dr.-Ing. Uchendu Eugene Chigbu

Researcher & Doctoral Program Coordinator TechnicalUniversity of Munich, Chair of Land Management, Arcisstraße 21, 80333 Munich, Germany. Tel.: +49 (0)89 289-22518 / Fax: +49 (0)89 289-23933 I Available onITwitter ILinkedIn IResearchgate

I

------

*From:* [email protected] on behalf of Editorial Office *Sent:* 14 August 2020 08:05 *To:* Wiwandari Handayani *Cc:* Chigbu, Uchendu; Iwan Rudiarto; Intan Hapsari Surya Putri *Subject:* [Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Submission Received Dear Dr. Handayani,

Thank you very much for uploading the following manuscript to the MDPI submission system. One of our editors will be in touch with you soon.

Journal name: Land Manuscript ID: land-916140 Type of manuscript: Article Title: Urbanization and Floods in the Northern Coast of Central Java: Towards A Responsive Land Use Policy at the River Basin Level Authors: Wiwandari Handayani, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto, Intan Hapsari Surya Putri Received: 14 August 2020 E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Land, Women, Youths, and Land Tools or Methods https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/special_issues/land_women

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Chigbu, Uchendu 24 August 2020 at 21:29 To: Wiwandari Handayani

Hi Wiwi,

What do you understand by this message as detailed point by point response? I am not sure I understand it since the paper has changed (including title). I am not sure the reviewers are asking for this but more of an administrative thing. I do not know what they expect really.

Best wishes,

Eugene

From: Janie Liu Sent: 24 August 2020 16:14:25 To: Chigbu, Uchendu Cc: Land Editorial Office; Wiwandari Handayani Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: [Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Submission Received - Please Provide Detailed Point- by-point Responses

[Quoted text hidden]

Wiwandari Handayani 24 August 2020 at 21:38 To: "Chigbu, Uchendu"

Dear Eugene, Indeed, it is confusing. I will check again the reviewers' comment and try to address them point by point. I will send it to you tomorrow afternoon or evening.

Best, Wiwi [Quoted text hidden]

Wiwandari Handayani 25 August 2020 at 20:31 To: "Chigbu, Uchendu"

Dear Eugene, Please find enclosed the response in Table format. I don't put a lot of explanations as we think the paper has considerably changed. Please kindly add some necessary explanation and send it to Janie. I think that it would be better to continue your communication with her.

Best, Wiwi [Quoted text hidden] -- Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS Associate Professor

Research Group in Regional Development and Environmental Management Department of Urban and Regional Planning | Diponegoro University Semarang 50275, Indonesia

Response_Land Paper River Basin_point by point.docx 40K

Chigbu, Uchendu 25 August 2020 at 20:54 To: Janie Liu Cc: Land Editorial Office , Wiwandari Handayani

Dear Janie,

Thanks for your message. Please find aached, the expanded responses to revuewers. For both review and administrave purposes, it is important to note that this manuscript has considerably changed due to the recommendaons of 4 different reviewers in various (and overlapping/contradictory) aspects of the paper. That makes it impossible for us to fully sasfy the expectaons of one parcular reviewer. We hope that the reviewers and the academic editor would consider this while revaluang this current version of the manuscript.

Best wishes, Eugene ...... Dr.-Ing. Uchendu Eugene Chigbu

Researcher & Doctoral Program Coordinator Technical University of Munich, Chair of Land Management, Arcisstraße 21, 80333 Munich, Germany. Tel.: +49 (0)89 289-22518 / Fax: +49 (0)89 289-23933 I Available on I Twitter I LinkedIn I Researchgate I

From: Janie Liu Sent: 24 August 2020 16:14:25 To: Chigbu, Uchendu Cc: Land Editorial Office; Wiwandari Handayani Subject: Re: Fwd: Re: [Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Submission Received - Please Provide Detailed Point- by-point Responses

[Quoted text hidden]

Response_Land Paper River Basin_point by point.docx 43K

Chigbu, Uchendu 25 August 2020 at 21:16 To: Wiwandari Handayani

Dear Wiwi,

Thanks for making out time to do this.

Best wishes [Quoted text hidden]

[Quoted text hidden] REVIEW LAND PAPER

Urbanization and Floods in the Northern Coast of Central Java: Towards A Responsive Land Use Policy at the River Basin Level

Reviewer 1

No Comments Explanation 1 The aim of the paper is to explore urbanization and flood We would like to thank this reviewer because she/he events by using river basin as the basis of unit analysis. The gave a highly favorable recommendation (acceptable article is well-written with a suitable structure and with minor revision) to our manuscript. However, as proportions. The authors have chosen the northern coast of some other reviewers recommended a complete Central Java as the area of interest. The applied overhaul of the manuscript, we have had to change the methodology (spatial data analysis and non-spatial data entire manuscript considerably, including the title. analysis) is presented understandably. The results are Despite this we adopted all aspects of this reviewer’s elaborated in enough detail and in line with the aim of the recommendations that still apply to the current draft. In paper. I highly appreciate the expanded discussion. I find the this regard, we did the following as recommended by paper acceptable for publication with a minor revision. the reviewer: • Retained an elaboration of our results in line with the aim of the paper • Justified the time span of the data used in the research. • Specified the LULC classification categories and accuracy. • Introduced the extent of precipitation • Improved on the figures, tables and maps Once again we thank this reviewer and can assure that we have improve this paper based on her/hers and other feedback received from 4 different reviewers. 2 Please justify time span of the data used in the research. The We have expanded the flood events data to 2009-2018 LULC data are from the years 2009 and 2018, and data (even though there are some limitations in certain regarding flood events covers the period 2014–2018. Is a period). It is now the time span is the same as the LULC divergence caused by the availability of data, or is it an data. Accordingly, we have synchronizing bot variables in intended selection in line with the research assumption. the analysis. 3 If the data availability allows, I would suggest synchronizing data for LULC and flood events and conducting the study for the period 2014-2018, taking into account annual changes. 4 Page 7 row 230–234, please specify the LULC classification We have added some details (2.2.1 spatial data and accuracy. Such information strengthens confidence of data. Figure 3) 5 Page 8 row 268, Table 6, is information about the Average of We have changed the table format and point of analysis Annual Growth Rate (%) of Built-Up areas needed. The value (Table 6). We are now focused on the annual growth in provided is not subject to further analysis, and land use each river basin based on the urban-rural characteristic changes differ in time. (i.e. urban, potentially urban, and rural) 6 Page 10 row 288 please explain units, in which the value of We have adjusted that part. loss of mix plantation is presented – % or sq. km. 7 Page 12 row 330-338, the authors emphasized the impact of We don’t have detail data based on survey. We illustrate rainfall on the flood events. I would suggest detailing data the secondary rainfall data as presented in Figure 2 and on rainfall. Would it be possible to estimate and compile the further analysis in Figure 6. sums of precipitation for river basins for every years covered by the survey. 8 As for Figures 3,5,7,8, I suggest using the chart (hachure) to We have changed the perspective of analysis and not indicate areas of upstream, midstream and downstream, using upstream, midstream and downstream term because the imposition of signatures related to the type of anymore. administrative unit or the number of flood events makes these distinctions invisible. It is particularly difficult to read the range of downstream. Also the symbol of ‘Alterila Road’ needs scaling. 9 Figure 7 is very interesting but some of its elements are hard We have improved and make it in slightly different to read, especially the legend. Why the flood events were version (Figure 7) marked on the map only for 2018, and the table shows the number of events for each year from 2014–2018.

Reviewer 2

No Comments Explanation 1 In general, this study aims to explore urbanization and flood This reviewer rated our paper badly but provided events in the northern coast of Central Java by using river basin as very useful feedback for its improvement. We the basis of unit analysis. The methodology is based on the appreciate the comments of this reviewer, and we analysis of two remote sensing images and other do agree that (in the words of the review) that geomorphological data in combination with collected flood data “the paper is not so well written (some parts of the by several sources. The paper is not so well written (some parts of paper were well written, e.g. Discussion section) the paper were well written, eg. Discussion section) and needs and needs much additional information, much additional information, improvements and justifications (see improvements and justifications (see detail detail comments). Therefore, the manuscript is not acceptable for comments).” This situation can occur in a multiple publication and I encourage a re-submission as a new paper when co-authored manuscript where different authors the above comments and remarks are taken into account. have to provide texts for different parts of the Addressing these comments will improve the scientific quality of paper. Taking the reviewer’s feedback into the paper to the international standards of the Land journal consideration, we have a completely overhaul of (MDPI). the manuscript, we have had to change the entire manuscript considerably, including the title.

In doing this, we followed the reviewer’s ideas to redress issues of incoherencies in the paper. Furthermore, we did the following as recommended by the reviewer: • Made the entire writing more coherent through tighter editing • Retained an elaboration of our results in line with the aim of the paper • Justified the time span of the data used in the research. • Specified the LULC classification categories and accuracy. • Introduced the extent of precipitation • Improved on the figures, tables and maps We hope that considering the full re-writing of this manuscript that this reviewer to review this paper with an understanding of the limitations posed by time and resources in a study of this type. Once again we thank this reviewer and can assure that we have improve this paper based on her/hers and other feedback received from 4 different reviewers.

2 Page 1 We have reconstructed the introduction part, we Row 19: where is Central Java, please include prefecture and cannot address all the comments in this part one country by one. Row 25: I should check the results for this Row 27: change it with to safeguard. Protect urban areas from what? Row 28: word island (or area, territory, etc.) is missing Row 31: i should check the results about this. Eco-based approach such us ....? Row 39-40: ??? Page 2 Row 52 : i want to know about the terminology and when it should be used. Row 54 : does the authorities cooperate ? what is the relation between them?Row 63: ???? Row 66-67: please justify this sentence. How is land use planning crucial for identifying the critical elements in a hydrological system? I do not think that this is correct. Land use planning can affect a hydrological system and is a critical element in the response of the hydrological system. Row 68-73: Please rephrase No Comments Explanation Row 73-74: Can you provide me the terminology of the flood adaptation cycle? The sentence is confusing for the reader. Please rephrase. Row 74-75: What is related to what. Maybe it is better to merge the sentences, or rephrase them in order to provide more clear message to the reader. Row 76: maybe is better to use the phrase high correlation between urbanization and the frequency of floods (or the rise in flood event). Row 79: rising in population affect the percentage of the urban area. Therefore, the rise of the urban area (changes in land use) affect the flood frequency. as Chen et al writing "identified the hot spots of increased built-up land exposure to floods in the coastal areas of East China" Row 82: Please Rephrase

3 Page 1 Row 29 We understand the concern and have tried to i do not agree with the authors that flood phenomena are rewrite/restructure the introduction part. consequence of urbanization. Flood phenomena produced by the hydrometeorological conditions. Urbanization may alter the way of the flow routing (due to human intervations) but the factor that generate flood phenomena still remain the hydrometeorological conditions. In the entire world we have flood phenomena without urbanization nor severe river basin interaction. Floods are physical phenomena that lately trouble humans due to the losses (fatalities, economical and other) in urbanized and agricultural areas.

Urbanization in flood plain areas increases the risk of flooding due to increased peak discharge and volume, and decreased time to peak.

Maybe the authors want to say that The emergine discusion deals with the effects of urban development on floods and river interactions .....

Urbanization in the watershed and in other areas can increase the surface runoff and consiquently the discharge. With higher discharges we can have higher frequency in flood phenomena 14 Page 3 row 110 It has been changed as follow (line 85-89): Thus, the main aim of this study is to investigate the correlation This study aims to explore urbanization and flood between the spatial distribution of the flood events and the land events in the northern coast of Central Java by cover alterations at river basin scale. using river basin as the basis of unit analysis. We addressed two main research questions herein: (1) Maybe this summation of the work can be used to generate a new How urbanization and flood events have taken title and reorganize the introduction section. The investigation at place from the perspective of river basin basin scale should be highlighted (comparison with other delineation? (2) To what extent the presented studies). Moreover, authors should highlit the fact that comprehension of river basin as land and land use they use pluvial and fluvial flood incidents (comparison with other could contribute in reducing flood risk through presented studies). land use policy and better flood management? 15 Figure 1 Page 4 We have removed the image and the text, and How does the ciliwung- basin and the bengawan make some improvement to explain the study basin are related to the specific study. Please remove area(part 2.1) them from the image and the text. I believe that all the information provided for the other two river basins are irrelevant from the presented study. A recommendation to the authors is to provide some info about the meteorological conditions, the geology of the area, elevation and river basin charateristics [except the area that is presented] etc. (the important factors for fluvial and pluvial floods except the urbanization) of the study river basins. Moreover, i believe that a short brief of the current situation with the interaction of the administrative agencies about the water resources managements should be presented in this section. The reader should understand the problematic situation, if any (relation and interactions of watershed management agency No Comments Explanation with municipalities etc). Authors should give the reader a hint about the situation and inform him that his info will be presented in the following paragraphs. The Arterial road element is not presented correctly in the legend. The red lines of the image are not presented in the legend. Please recreate the image using higher resolution (at least 300dpi). Maybe the upper part of the image is not necessary (the study area can be seen in the image in the lower right part of the image). 16 Page 5 Row 164 We have added some details (2.2.1 spatial data what is the resolution of the DEM? It should be mentioned and Figure 3) because the use of course resolution data can extrapolate the elevation values and to generate erroneous results. 17 Page 5 Table 2 What does the type declare? Maybe this is not so useful to be presented in the table. I did not found such categorization within the manuscript. please provide the number of the landsat satelite used in this study. e.g. Landsat 8 18 Page 5 Row 169 We rewrite and simplify the classification (line 149- The description o the data used is very complicated and difficult 165). It is now only 3 classifications (Table 3) for the reader to understand. The classification is presented in table 3 but the authors should explain some things about the criteria selected and write a description of the table within the manuscript. Moreover, i believe that the entire paragraph with the desa and kelurahan village categorization should be rewritten. 19 Page 5 Table 3 reconstruct the table in order to present properly the delineation of 2nd and 3rd category. In the manuscript are presented a supplementary naming of the classification (it should be included within the table). 20 Page 6 Row 190 We try to improve the narrative and the Table The entire sub section should be recreated based on the (present the total of 100%) suggested guides. Better description of all data is needed.

Good suggestion for better description of the disaster data can be found on the works of : Macchione, F.; Costabile, P.; Costanzo, C.; De Lorenzo, G. Extracting quantitative data from non-conventional information for the hydraulic reconstruction of past urban flood events. A case study. J. Hydrol. 2019, 576, 443–465. or Papaioannou, G.; Varlas, G.; Terti, G.; Papadopoulos, A.; Loukas, A.; Panagopoulos, Y.; Dimitriou, E. Flood Inundation Mapping at Ungauged Basins Using Coupled Hydrometeorological–Hydraulic Modelling: The Catastrophic Case of the 2006 Flash Flood in Volos City, Greece. Water 2019, 11, 2328. or Diakakis, M., Mavroulis, S. & Deligiannakis, G. Floods in Greece, a statistical and spatial approach. Nat Hazards 62, 485–500 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0090-z 21 Page 6 Table 4: The table should present the total (100%) of the sources. Authors should create a table using different categorization in order to include all data used in this analysis. 22 Page 7 Row 223-224: The flood events have spatial distribution, as We have rewritten this part (including the Figure): well as the classification of rural-urban areas. Is this correct? I do line 193-217. not understand the exact process in this sentence. 23 Page 7 Row 228-229: Please rephrase. e.g. The classification of land cover is based on the Maximum livelihood classification method (supervised classification) that ...... 24 Page 7 Row 231-232: I do not understand how the accuracy test is implemented. No Comments Explanation Why the test is implemented only in 306 observation points? Are the observation points generated for different flood events or some of them are included within the same flood event? 25 Page 7 Figure 2: Better resolution should be used (at least 300 dpi) because the image is blur. For better understanding of the flow chart all elements should be explained in the caption of the figure. What is the green dashed lines? what does the red dashed line separate? etc. Disaster dataset is not following the same period used in the Land Use-Land Cover dataset. So, how do we know that urbanization severely affected the flood incidents. There is a gap. Authors should provide justification about this serious issue. 26 Page 7 Row 239-240: Please rephrase 27 Page 8 Row 242: What is the DEM 2014 data? This is the first time that the authors deferring to DEM 2014 data. I suppose that the authors want to say about the DEM used for the analysis. Please rephrase. 28 Page 8 Row 253: Many parts of the sub-chapter should be written We have changed the table format and point of again. It is difficult for the reader to understand what the authors analysis (Table 6). We are now focused on the want to state. annual growth in each river basin based on the 29 Page 8 258-261 & 264: Please rephrase. In general i suggest the urban-rural characteristic (i.e. urban, potentially authors to use smaller sentences. urban, and rural). 30 Page 9 Figure 3: Figure 3 should be created using better resolution We have improved the resolution as well (Figure 3 (at least 300dpi). The image is blur. becomes Figure 4, we adjust the legend as now we 31 Page 10 Row 300-305: Please rephrase. do not differentiate the up-, mid-, and down- stream anymore but rather focused on the urban characteristic (as explain in Table 6).. 32 Page 11 Row 315: A big issue for the specific paper is the use of We have expanded the flood events data to 2009- different periods for the disaster data and the urbanization data. 2018 (even though there are some limitations in Moreover it is very difficult to follow up the results presented in certain period). It is now the time span is the same this sub-section. The severity of the flood incidents should be as the LULC data. Accordingly, we have taken into account (fatalities is a very important factor in a flood synchronizing bot variables in the analysis incident). 33 Page 11 Row 322-323: Please rephrase. We have rewritten part 3.2 Line 281-383), provide 34 Page 12 Row 332: Is the number of the stations used sufficient for Figure 6 to generally illustrate the flood event the specific analysis? What is the distribution of the stations? based on rural-urban categorization, improve and What is the altitude of the stations? How certain we are about the slightly change the figure resolution reduction and later the increase of the rainfall intensity. The authors talk about rainfall intensity but they present the annual precipitation data (is 2200mm/year rainfall intensity or annual rainfall). The correlation of the rainfall data and the flood incidents needs better justification. 35 Page 12 Row 347-357: Please rephrase. The text is very confusing. 36 Page 13 Figure 7: Figure 7 should be generated using higher resolution. It is very difficult for the reader to read and understand the specific figure. Are the flood events depicted as watersheds? This should be noted here and within the manuscript. 37 Page 13 Row 362, 372, 374: Please rephrase. 38 Page 14 Row 398-400: Very confusing sentence. Please rephrase. We have restructured the discussion part from 39 Page 14 Row 406-407: The authors should provide better four parts to two parts. justification about this statement. We hope the new structure is easier to understand. We are now focused on: River Basins Spatial Identity that Embrace Policy and Land Use 40 Page 14 Row 420: I do not understand what the authors want to Issues in the Urban System the Role of Governance say in Flood Management. 41 Page 14 Row 423: What these? e.g. of the above-mentioned factors 42 Page 14 Row 435: how do we separate urban river basins from other types of river basins (or watersheds)? When we speak about urban river basins we are thinking only for pluvial floods? With the statement Urban river basin, does the authors follow specific terminology? 43 Page 15 Row 440: This is the first time in the entire paper that we see the coastal cities. (There is only two mentions of coastal areas in the introduction section) No Comments Explanation 44 Page 15 Row 454: In general the authors have made a good bibliographic review but they are not supporting their work. Authors mention pluvial floods in other works but we do not see similar correlation in their work (pluvial and fluvial floods are not separated in this work). Floods in urban areas does not automatically categorized to pluvial floods. In many worldwide cases, floods within towns are correlated to fluvial flood events. 45 Page 15 Row 460-462: Justification using reference is missing. 46 Page 16 Figure 8: Figure 8 should be generated using higher resolution. The image is blur 47 Page 16 Row 485-486: Justification using reference is missing. 48 Page 16 Row 494-495: This statement is very general and can be justified without using the specific work. Industrialization and urbanization can potentially lead to increase in flood risk. 49 Page 16 Row 499: Please rephrase 50 Page 16 Row 503-504: It is better to provide these evidences. 51 Page 16 Row 512: increasing climate disaster? 52 Page 17 Row 519: I do not understand the eco-based approach. What is the eco-based approach? what are the measures that can be taken according to the eco-based approach. I believe that detailed information is missing about the eco-based approach. 53 Page 17 Row 525-528: This information is repeated (previous parts of the discussion section). 54 Page 18 Figure 9: Figure 9 should be generated using higher resolution. The image is blur. It is difficult to read some words. 55 Page 18 Row 587-589: So, what is the authors suggestion about the government policies that should be taken in central java area (or Indonesia). 56 Page 19 Row 597-598: This is the first time in the entire paper that we see the coastal cities. I do not understand what the authors want to claim with this sentence. 57 Page 19 Row 601 We have rewritten the conclusion, adjusted it with How do we see the relationship within the study? Do we have the current aims and result of analyses as we have some statistical analysis? How is this verified (solid verification)? also expanded the flood events data. The authors provided data of the difference of the land cover and summarized the flood incidents (providing flood incidents numbers). This conclusion is missing justification. The urbanization comparison is from 2009-2018 while the flood data are from 2014- 2018. Moreover, in 2014 we have more flood incidents than every other year. In order to provide solid evidence of the correlation between urbanization and flood events, a very good hydrometeorological analysis should be taken (even using other works). The hydrometeorological analysis will help the authors to justify if the flood incidents are correlated with the urbanization or the hydrometeorological conditions of the study area.

Reviewer 3

No Comments Explanation 1 The topic addressed by the authors is well known This reviewer rated our paper badly but provided very useful in the technical community. The effect produced feedback for its improvement. We appreciate that this reviewer by the increase in urban areas at any basin over took time to read our paper. However, it is difficult to understand the flood effects is a comon topic everywhere. I why this reviewer rejected the paper because he/she presented only have read other papers in the journal, and most a none-scientific opinion which were more complimentary than of the addresss new topics of interest, not like damaging. this anuscript. 2 It is possible to find relationships between land There is nothing for us to agree or disagree here because there are uses and floods, but not all the floods have many ways of doing the same thing. However, we have noted this produced same damages over the terrain. This reviewer’s stand concerning our paper but we would beg that the point is not considered in the manuscript and it reviewer present a more scientific opinion for the dismissal of a should be done. Floods can be classified in low, paper in a journal of this type. Otherwise, the essence of peer- medium or severe and the effects are not the reviewing would be lost. Once again we thank this reviewer and can same. Just to summarize something so obvious assure that we have improve this paper based on her/hers and as the increase of urbanization has an effect over other feedback received from 4 different reviewers. the floods does nor deserve to be published

Reviewer 4

No Comments Explanation 1 Lack of scientific question In our opinion, this reviewer was fair with the feedback. We As stated in detail below, the authors failed to identify appreciate that this reviewer took time to read our paper. the scientific question. Whilst a number of previous We thank this reviewer for acknowledging that our paper studies were cited, it is still unclear what is the “was well written” but “found two major concerns, which research gap in them. In the present form, the paper hesitates me to recommend this paper to be published.” seems just a trial of comparison between land use change and flood events, which is not scientifically The reviewer complained of us not having a clear question? new. The core thesis of the paper was at least decipherable from 2 Lack of significance the title and discussed in the introduction, and then The findings from the study are weak in order to be followed up in the methodology – which the reviewer called as scientific significance. For instance, findings claimed to have been well written. Does this reviewer mentioned in the conclusion are: implying that we must state a “question”? We do not know - “this study has shown that the linkage factor or because it was not directly said but it appears the other object in the flood-and-urbanization relationship can reviewers may disagree with this. The problem statement of be the river basin.” the paper was discussed in detail. However, considering this - “Disaster risk reduction through proper land use reviewer negative feedback on the paper (and as some other planning and controlling is an essential instrument for reviewers recommended), we have had to change the entire safeguarding urban area” manuscript considerably, including the title. These are commonly told and not new. We hope this reviewer will find the current draft acceptable and also consider that we had four review feedbacks that in many areas were contradictory to each other. Once again we thank this reviewer and can assure that we have improve this paper based on her/hers and other feedback received from 4 different reviewers.

3 P 1 L 15–16, P 2 L 47–48, P 2 L 69 We have reconstructed the introduction part I cannot figure out what you mean in saying “water system delineation” or “water system performance”. “Water system” is too abstract and is used in various contexts, so it needs further specification. 4 P 2 L 49 I am not sure why the authors emphasize landscape ecology, which is not relevant to the content of the article. 5 P 2 L 52–53 This is basically a common issue around the world, and it is unclear why this point is underscored. 6 P 2 L 76–97 Here the authors listed a number of previous studies; however, they just praise them in that they “have influenced this study to infer that …”. This is obviously not a healthy attitude of science. As a rule, the purpose of literature review is to identify research gap and your research question based on it. In the present case I cannot find neither of them and suddenly it proceeds to “This study aims to …”. Judging from these, I cannot say this study is scientific research. 7 P 6 L 198–200 The formal flood data collection in Indonesia was available How reliable is the data collected from the Internet? only since the establishment of Disaster Management Board. Isn’t there any prospect that the flood events on the In some area including in Central Java, the board was Internet but not on the formal government report are formally activated in 2012-2015 in which they were not not so serious ones? Does the Internet-based ready with data collection system. That is a reason why we information give detailed or the latest information on add/validate data collected from internet. flood events such as casualties or economic losses? 8 P 7 L 239–241 We do not us this term anymore as it creates so many Explain how to determine the threshold of division of complications. upstream/downstream. 9 P 8 L 255 Helpful input, thank you. Table 6, not Table 3. 10 P 11 L 318 The collocation of “height of flood” is not commonly used. No Comments Explanation 11 P 11 L 321–322, L 325–326 We are fully understand, that is a reason also why we decide This finding is anything but new for two reasons. First, not to focused on this terminology anymore. in general, river discharge becomes larger downstream compared to upstream channels. Second, the total area of downstream is larger than midstream and upstream. I think more meaningful analyses will be required. 12 P 12 L 333 Helpful input, thank you. “Cumulative rainfall” is more commonly used in this context than “rainfall intensity”. 13 P 13 L 359 We change the figure/create the new one (Figure 7) This figure is too ambiguous and readers cannot understand it. 14 P 14 L 403–404 We have rewritten and restructure all the discussion part. Who simply views river basin dynamics as “a landscape or an appendage of water bodies”? I strongly disagree with the statement “The understanding of river basins dynamics in the urban system is still vague” in honour of the accumulation of previous achievements in hydrological-hydraulic modelling. 15 P 14 L 411–453 Not limited to this part, but overall the paper seems to have something to tell Indonesian government to alter their mind regarding flood mitigation strategy. That also makes me feel that this paper should be called a technical report, not a scientific paper. 16 P 18 L 588–590 This is a misleading statement. The importance of structural countermeasures such as river dikes should not be underestimated. 17 P 19 L 605–607, L 613–615 Again, these statements are listed as findings of the present study, but unfortunately they are a kind of shared understanding among people working in the field of river flood community.

Wiwandari Handayani

[Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Minor Revisions (Deadline: 09/19/2020) 1 message

Janie Liu 16 September 2020 at 17:24 Reply-To: [email protected] To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office

Dear Dr. Handayani,

Thank you for submitting your manuscript:

Manuscript ID: land-916140 Type of manuscript: Article Title: Urbanization and Increasing Flood Risk in the Northern Coast of Central Java – Indonesia: an Assessment towards Better Land Use Policy and Flood Management Authors: Wiwandari Handayani, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto, Intan Hapsari Surya Putri Received: 14 August 2020 E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Land, Women, Youths, and Land Tools or Methods https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/special_issues/land_women

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MDPI AG St. Alban-Anlage 66, 4052 Basel Switzerland Tel. +41 61 683 77 34; Fax +41 61 302 89 18 http://www.mdpi.com/ ------Land is affiliated to IALE http://www.landscape-ecology.org/home.html Wiwandari Handayani

[Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Revision Reminder 5 messages

Janie Liu 17 September 2020 at 07:46 Reply-To: [email protected] To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office

Dear Dr. Handayani,

We sent you a revision request a couple of days ago for the following manuscript:

Manuscript ID: land-916140 Type of manuscript: Article Title: Urbanization and Increasing Flood Risk in the Northern Coast of Central Java – Indonesia: an Assessment towards Better Land Use Policy and Flood Management Authors: Wiwandari Handayani, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto, Intan Hapsari Surya Putri Received: 14 August 2020 E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Land, Women, Youths, and Land Tools or Methods https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/special_issues/land_women https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/review_info/006103563f1b73d21369ffe38c9a0c6f

We notice that the latest version of your manuscript has not yet been downloaded from our server. We kindly remind you to find the manuscript and review reports at the following link: https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/resubmit/006103563f1b73d21369ffe38c9a0c6f

We look forward to receiving your revision by 23 September 2020.

Kind regards, Ms. Janie Liu Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected]

-- MDPI Branch Office, Beijing Land Editorial Office E-mail: [email protected] http://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/

MDPI AG St. Alban-Anlage 66, 4052 Basel Switzerland Tel. +41 61 683 77 34; Fax +41 61 302 89 18 http://www.mdpi.com/ ------Land is affiliated to IALE http://www.landscape-ecology.org/home.html

Chigbu, Uchendu 17 September 2020 at 09:44 To: "[email protected]" Cc: Wiwandari Handayani , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office

Dear Janie, Your message was received. I will contact the lead author. Best wishes Eugene

> On 17 Sep 2020, at 02:46, Janie Liu wrote: > > Dear Dr. Handayani, [Quoted text hidden]

Wiwandari Handayani 17 September 2020 at 10:12 To: "Chigbu, Uchendu"

Dear Eugene, Thank you for replying to Janie. I am so sorry, I have been so hectic in the last 2 days, I've just opened the email and downloaded the paper. Happy with the review comments, it was only a minor improvement needed. I will try to respon the third reviewer comment somewhere on the paper and send the file to you. Hope you are able to help check the english as requested by the editor, or do you think I need to send the paper to a proofreader? Please let me know...

Best, Wiwi [Quoted text hidden] -- Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS Associate Professor

Research Group in Regional Development and Environmental Management Department of Urban and Regional Planning | Diponegoro University Semarang 50275, Indonesia

Chigbu, Uchendu 17 September 2020 at 10:24 To: Wiwandari Handayani

Dear Wiwi,

Good to know you are ok. I can understand the hectic schedules, and I hope it turns out well for you.

Yes the paper is good news. The “English” issue is always a general comments added by most reviewers to ensure they provide accuracy feedback. I will go through it, but you have someone else who can read it, that would be helpful. Usually, the more people read a paper the better with editing.

Best wishes Eugene

On 17 Sep 2020, at 05:12, Wiwandari Handayani wrote:

[Quoted text hidden]

Wiwandari Handayani 17 September 2020 at 12:41 To: "Chigbu, Uchendu"

Noted Eugene... I will get back to you soon (later today or tomorrow), send the paper with my additional explanation to address the 3rd reviewer. Thank you...

Best, Wiwi [Quoted text hidden] Wiwandari Handayani

[Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Revised Version Received 1 message

Janie Liu 19 September 2020 at 07:58 Reply-To: [email protected] To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office

Dear Dr. Handayani,

Thank you very much for providing the revised version of your paper:

Manuscript ID: land-916140 Type of manuscript: Article Title: Urbanization and Increasing Flood Risk in the Northern Coast of Central Java – Indonesia: an Assessment towards Better Land Use Policy and Flood Management Authors: Wiwandari Handayani, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto, Intan Hapsari Surya Putri Received: 14 August 2020 E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Land, Women, Youths, and Land Tools or Methods https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/special_issues/land_women https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/review_info/006103563f1b73d21369ffe38c9a0c6f

We will continue processing your paper and will keep you informed about the submission status.

Kind regards,

Ms. Janie Liu Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected]

-- MDPI Branch Office, Beijing Land Editorial Office E-mail: [email protected] http://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/

MDPI AG St. Alban-Anlage 66, 4052 Basel Switzerland Tel. +41 61 683 77 34; Fax +41 61 302 89 18 http://www.mdpi.com/ ------Land is affiliated to IALE http://www.landscape-ecology.org/home.html

1 Article 2 Urbanization and Increasing Flood Risk in the 3 Northern Coast of Central Java – Indonesia: an 4 Assessment towards Better Land Use Policy and 5 Flood Management

6 Wiwandari Handayani 1, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu 2,*, Iwan Rudiarto 1 and Intan Hapsari Surya 7 Putri 1

8 1 Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Diponegoro University, Semarang 50275, Indonesia; 9 [email protected] (W.H.); [email protected] (I.R.); 10 [email protected] (I.H.S.P.) 11 2 Chair of Land management, Faculty of Aerospace and Geodesy, Technical University of Munich (TUM), 12 80333 Munich, Germany; [email protected] (U.E.C.) 13 * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +49-(0)89-289-22518 (U.E.C.); 14 [email protected] (W.H.) 15 Received: date; Accepted: date; Published: date

16 Abstract: This study explores urbanization and flood events in the northern coast of Central Java with 17 river basin as its unit of analysis. Two types of analysis were applied (i.e. spatial data and non-spatial 18 data analysis) at four river basin areas in Central Java – Indonesia. The spatial analysis is focused on 19 the assessment of LULC change in 2009-2018 based on Landsat Imagery. The non-spatial data (i.e. 20 rural-urban classification and flood events) were overlaid with results of spatial data analyses. Our 21 findings show that urbanization, as indicated by the growth rate of built-up areas, is very significant. 22 Notable exposure to flood has taken place in the urban and potentially urban areas. The emerging 23 discussion indicates that river basins possess dual spatial identity in the urban system (policy- and 24 land-use-related). Proper land use planning and control is an essential instrument to safeguard urban 25 areas (such as the case study area) and the entire island of Java in Indonesia. More attention should 26 be put upon the river basin areas in designing eco-based approach to tackle the urban flood crises. In 27 this case, the role of governance in flood management is crucial.

28 Keywords: Central Java; flood; flood management; Indonesia; land policy; land use; land-use change; 29 urbanization 30

31 1. Introduction 32 Flood is the most common disaster across the globe [1-4]. Rapid urbanization in low-lying areas 33 leads to higher exposure to various types of floods, in addition to the increase of coastal flooding 34 caused by sea-level rise and rainfall pattern deviation as a result of climate change [5-9]. Urbanization 35 can be clearly indicated by the conversion of land into residential areas based on the premise that the 36 growing urban population requires more land. Land conversion expands both downstream and 37 upstream to accommodate the needs and activities of the growing urban populations. Deng et al. [10] 38 (p. 1341) and Chin [11] (p. 469) assert that urbanization is a significant contributor to changes in the 39 river system and structure as it usually increases flood risk.

Land 2020, 9, x; doi: FOR PEER REVIEW www.mdpi.com/journal/land Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 2 of 22

40 Land use policy provides the opportunity to conduct systematic assessment of land and water 41 potential and to identify options to improve flood-prone areas and mitigate flood occurrence. As “a 42 culmination of all activities and decisions concerned with guiding the allocation and use of land in 43 patterns that enable improvements in people’s way of living”, land use planning policy is a crucial 44 process for mitigating floods [12] (p. 8). On this basis, Hegger et al. [13] propose flood risk prevention 45 as a way to decrease the exposure of people/property using spatial planning policy as a critical 46 approach to Flood Risk Management (FRM). Therefore, flood risk prevention is vital in the flood 47 adaptation cycle. It is related to the capacity to transform and to adapt long-term perspectives in 48 addressing disturbance to achieve sustainable urbanization. The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005– 49 2015 [14] and Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 [15] have strengthened the 50 role of land use policy to contribute to disaster risk reduction. Both global commitments prioritize 51 land use allocation through policy instrument to reduce risk factors, considering that the policy will 52 accommodate physical and ecological characteristics in allocating various types of land use. 53 Many factors affect the occurrence of flooding. However, recent studies in various parts of Asia 54 have shown a significant connection between urbanization (influenced by land-use change) and 55 flooding events [7,13,16-20]. Some of these studies are worth mentioning here. Chen et al. [17] 56 investigated the connection between population growth and land-use changes in relation to natural 57 hazard occurrence in China. They found that the Pearl River Basin is increasingly exposed to floods 58 because of population growth and land conversion. Song et al. [18] assessed the water level dynamics 59 in the Yangtze River Delta and found that precipitation and urbanization caused increased flood risk. 60 Focusing on drainage adaptation, Zhou et al. [19] revealed that land-use changes in Northern China 61 exacerbated the increase of surface runoff due to flooding, which is caused by poor drainage system 62 planning. Zope et al. [20] investigated Land Use-Land Cover (LULC) changes in Oshiwara River 63 Basin in Mumbai-India and revealed that increase of LULC correspondingly led to the increase in 64 flood frequency. In the book Disaster Governance in Urbanizing Asia, Miller and Douglass’ [2] 65 argued that that urbanization is a leading factor in the exposure of human settlements to floods and 66 vulnerabilities of various forms. All of the studies mentioned above have influenced this study to 67 infer that controlling urbanization and reducing flood risk cannot be executed separately. The whole 68 urban system at the regional level needs to be considered. After all, most “sites of intense 69 urbanization are prone to natural hazards - such as flood, landslide, drought, and tidal flood” in 70 Indonesia [21] (p. 287). 71 All of these studies [13,16-21] indicate that flood and urbanization are complex issues. Flood risk 72 is identified based on water system delineation and defined based on gravity-driven river flow 73 pattern following landscape ecology, which then forms a river basin [22]. Accordingly, a river basin 74 is usually characterized by a land area that consists of various types of land use and a number of 75 watersheds that drain from the upstream to downstream area [23]. Water flows without recourse to 76 administrative jurisdictions, while spatial planning (i.e. land use policy) to control urbanization are 77 examined based on the administrative jurisdiction. In Indonesia, it is common that a river basin cover 78 more than one administrative boundaries or local government authorities. This means that a river 79 basin may be subject to the management of more than one responsible parties. Such a scenario creates 80 a challenge in land use planning and in developing control mechanisms for river management. 81 This study explores urbanization and flood events in the northern coast of Central Java using 82 the river basin as its unit of analysis. We addressed two main research questions herein: (1) How 83 have urbanization and flood events taken place from the perspective of river basin delineation? (2) 84 To what extent the comprehension of river basin as land and land use could contribute to reducing 85 flood risk through land use policy and better flood management? To answer these questions, this 86 paper is divided into three main sections. Section 2 is a description of the scope and methods used in 87 this study; section 3 provides an analysis on land-use changes and flood events within the scope of 88 study; and section 4 discusses issues emerging from the analysis, focusing on the importance of 89 understanding the spatial identity of river basins to contribute to better land use policy and 90 governance mechanism for flood management.

91 2. Materials and Methods Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 22

92 2.1. Study Area 93 Java is the most populous island in Indonesia. Its inhabitants constitute 60% of the total 94 Indonesian population, even though it is less than 7% of the total area in Indonesia [24]. According 95 to the Presidential Decree [25], the Island has around 1,200 watersheds and 24 river basins. Some of 96 them are categorized as National Strategic River Basins — meaning that their strategic socioeconomic 97 and environmental functions should be preserved. Our study area is located in the mid-northern part 98 of the Island (see Figure 1), which consists of four river basins. A large part of the area belongs to 99 Central Java Province, which stretches through several local government authorities (or 100 municipalities) that are categorized as either regencies or cities. The existence of arterial and toll roads 101 in the northern corridor is an infrastructural boost that has led to rapid economic development in the 102 area. Accordingly, some emerging threats on the functions of river basins are mostly triggered by 103 uncontrolled population growth. Such growth results in the reduction of non-built-up areas, as forest 104 and agriculture lands are converted to settlement and industrial zones. 105 Pemali-Comal, Bodri Kuto, Wiso Gelis, and Jratunseluna River Basins cover a total area of 16.403 106 sq. km that cuts across four cities (Tegal, Pekalongan, Semarang, and Salatiga) and 17 regencies (Brebes, 107 Tegal, Pemalang, Pekalongan, Batang, Kendal, Temanggung, Demak, Jepara, Kudus, Pati, Rembang, Blora, 108 Grobogan, Sragen, Boyolali, and Semarang) (Figure 1). Table 1 highlights the main features of these 109 basins. Jratunseluna is the biggest river basin in the study area. It is a National Strategic River Basin 110 with several vital functions and a significant number of people living in the area. Indeed, proper 111 governance/institutional setting is crucial in managing the basins, considering that the river basin 112 areas are not under local authorities.

113 Table 1. River Basins in the Northern Coast of Central Java Territorial Population River Basin Area (sq. km) Watershed Areas of Jurisdiction 10 Regencies, 2 Cities 8.9 million Jratunseluna 9.216 69 (2.231 Villages/Kelurahans) 1 Regency 1.2 million Wiso-Gelis 663 27 (92 Villages/Kelurahans) 3 Regencies 1.3 million Bodri-Kuto 1.662 12 (396 Villages/Kelurahans) 4 Regencies, 2 Cities 6.9 million Pemali-Comal 4.860 32 (961 Villages/Kelurahans) 114 *Kelurahan refers to a village that is located in a city 115 Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 22

116

117 Figure 1. Study Area

118 In general, as shown in Figure 2, rainfall in the four river basins fluctuated over nine years 119 period. In most cities and regencies in which all basins, except for Pemali-Comal, are located, the 120 rainfall increased from the previous year and peaked in 2010, followed by a sharp decline the year 121 after. In Jratunseluna, critical years with the highest frequency of rainfall were 2010, 2013, and 2016. 122 Throughout 2010, 2014, and 2016, the rainfall in Bodri Kuto continued to increase, peaking at 123 approximately 3600 mm/year. In contrast, the average rainfall in Pemali-Comal River Basin 124 considerably increased in 2012 and 2015 and then remained constant until 2018. However, the rainfall 125 patterns in Wiso-Gelis River Basin, which covers only one regency and was generated from only one 126 climatological station, differ from that of the other river basins. A steady increase was observed from 127 2009 to 2011 and 2012 to 2015, followed by a decrease in 2016. 128 129 130

131 Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 5 of 22

132 Source: Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (MCGA) and Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) 2009- 133 2018 134 *No data available in Wiso Gelis (2014, 2017, 2018) 135 **Rainfall data in Wiso-Gelis (collected from one climatology station), Jratunseluna (9 climatology stations), Bodri-Kuto 136 (4 climatology stations), Pemali-Comal (7 climatology stations)

137 Figure 2. Rainfall in the Study Area in 2009-2018

138 2.2 Methods of Data Collection

139 2.2.1. Spatial Data 140 Remote sensing data was used to produce Land-Use-Land Cover (LULC) map for 2009 and 2018 141 30 x 30 m resolution to assess LULC change in Central Java North Coast. In addition, watershed data 142 was used to delineate the river basin area according to Presidential Decree and Ministry Regulation. 143 Table 2 details the spatial data that were processed for the analysis.

144 Table 2. Spatial Data Collection Data No Data Type Year Source Format Landsat 8 Satellite 2009 and United States Geological Survey 1 Image Image 2018 (USGS) Presidential Decree No. 12/2012 Watershed 2 2018 Shapefile Ministry of Environment and delineation Forestry

145 2.2.2. Urban and Rural Classification Data 146 Rural and urban areas are classified based on their administrative jurisdiction, Central Bureau 147 of Statistics (CBS) criteria [26], as well as the direction of built-up area expansion. These resulted in 148 three classifications, namely urban, potentially urban and rural areas. An area is classified as urban 149 when its administrative jurisdiction lies in the city or the capital of a regency. Meanwhile, a 150 potentially urban area refers to any area categorized as rural-urban according to the CBS criteria, in 151 which its rural-urban potential is also considered (see Table 3). 152 To further comprehend the classification explained in Table 3, it is important to note that a 153 village is the lowest administrative jurisdiction in Indonesia. Accordingly, there are three types of 154 villages based on their rural and urban status. The first is desa, which are villages located in a regency 155 and characterized as rural. The second is kelurahan, which are categorized as urban villages and are 156 located in a city. Third, some villages are characterized as urban according to the CBS criteria, yet 157 they are referred to as desa instead of kelurahan. Therefore, they are categorized as potentially urban. 158 Another essential difference between desa and kelurahan is that the local residents elect the head of 159 desa, while the head of kelurahan is appointed by the mayor or regent, both of which are government 160 employees.

161 Table 3. Rural and Urban Classifications No Classification Definition Delineation Consist of kelurahan (located in cities) and Jurisdiction based on government 1 Urban area urban villages regulation (as capital of regency) • CBS scoring [26] based on census data Potentially Urban Consist of villages (desa) 2 2010 that is calculated according to Area that are characterized as selected variables, including Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 6 of 22

No Classification Definition Delineation urban, located in population density, percentage of regencies farming households, percentage of households served by electricity, percentage of households served by telephone network, access to main urban facilities, and access to supporting facilities (also explained in [7]) • Neighboring villages of the rural- urban area 2010 that has more than 28.6% built-up area in 2018 (the number is based on the average of built-up in the rural-urban area in 2010 (classification no. 3). Consist of villages (desa) 3 Rural Area that are located in The rest of the area regencies

162 2.2.3. Disaster Data 163 The primary data source for flood events is the Disaster Management Board (DMB) of Central 164 Java Province. According to DMB, based on the Law concerning Disaster Management [27], flooding 165 is an event or condition where an area or land is submerged due to water volume increase. Flash 166 flood, also known as fluvial flood, involves sudden water discharge in large volume due to river flow 167 obstruction. The DMB flood data is based on a compilation of reports from local (City/Regency) 168 government informing the location (name of villages/kelurahan), duration, depth, and damage/loss 169 status. However, not all local governments have reported the events as it is not an obligatory 170 procedure. Accordingly, this study also investigated data on flood events and fatalities published by 171 mass media websites or other institutions and used them to validate formal data released by the 172 government. The internet-based data were collected using three keywords via Google search engine: 173 flood, name of the district or city concerned, and the year of occurrence. 174 Data collection on flood events was done by looking for news articles that contain information 175 on flood location (sub-district and village or kelurahan), time of occurrence, height of inundation, the 176 time required for inundation to recede (duration of inundation), and the magnitude of impact or loss 177 due to flooding. Information search regarding flood events in regencies/cities and the specified year 178 were deemed to be completed when the search engine (Google) detected that no more articles related 179 to the keywords were found. 180 The news reports on flood events from 2009 to 2018 were collected, totaling in 2,123 news pieces 181 from approximately 98 sources, including the mass media or institutional website. The total number 182 of flood events was 1925, of which 1609 were reported by one news source (single rapporteur), while 183 the rest were reported by more than one news source (joint rapporteur). Table 4 describes the number 184 of total incidents reported from five sources that had the largest contribution in disaster news. Formal 185 government report only covers around 52% of the total incidents, showing that a significant number 186 of incidents took place yet they were not formally reported to the authorized government.

187 Table 4. Largest Contribution of Flood Data Sources

Sources Total Incidents Reported Contributions (%) Formal Government Report Disaster Management Board 1104 52.00 of Central Java Province Online Newspapers Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 22

Sources Total Incidents Reported Contributions (%) Tribune News 107 5.04 Kompas 86 4.05 Sindo Newa 63 2.97 Detik News 60 2.83 Others Media (85 Media which reported less than 60 incidents) 703 33.11 Total 2.123 100

188 2.3 Methods of Data Analyses 189 This study uses two types of analysis: spatial data and non-spatial data analysis (Figure 3). The 190 spatial analysis was focused on assessing LULC change in 2009-2018 based on Landsat Imagery. The 191 non-spatial data (i.e. rural-urban classification and flood events) were overlaid with the results of 192 spatial data analyses. 193 LULC was classified into five types based on the Indonesian National Standard Regulation [28], 194 namely the built-up, industry, rice fields, forest, and mix plantations (see Table 5). Supervised 195 classification was done on land cover imagery, in which the training sample was determined using 196 Maximum Likelihood Classification in ArcGIS. The accuracy of tentative LULC produced in this step 197 was confirmed through field observations and using the instrument conformity table, totaling in 306 198 observation points. This was then used to improve LULC interpretation. 199

200

201 Figure 3. Analytical Method Flowchart Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 8 of 22

202 As illustrated in Figure 3, the result of spatial data analysis was overlaid with two data attributes 203 at the village level; i.e. rural-urban classification and flood events. This step combined urban-rural 204 classification data (as explained in Table 5) and flood events with river basin classification and land- 205 use change in 2009-2018. In the next stage, descriptive analysis was conducted to identify the 206 relationship between land use changes, i.e. from built-up to non-built up areas, with the occurrence 207 of flood over nine years period. In this case, a matrix composed of four elements, including river 208 basin, urban-rural status, land use change and flood events, was generated. The built-up areas consist 209 of settlements and industrial areas, while the non-built up area include forests, rice fields and mix- 210 plantations.

211 Table 5. Land Use Classification in Study Area

Land use type Description Built-up - Land covered by buildings, dominated by grey color, are likely to cluster Settlement and/or to be built around the road network. Built-up - Industry Land covered by big buildings, dominated by light grey/white color, are likely to cluster and/or to be built around the road network. Rice field Land for agricultural with or without slopping terraces, dominated by light green color, mostly characterized as a dike pattern with a smooth texture Forest Natural and man-made forests, approximately 75% covered by trees, dominated by dark green color and a rough texture. Mix Plantation Different types of vegetation with various density, the color and texture are in between that of the rice fields and forests. 212 Source: Authors, developed from SNI 7645 [28]

213 3. Results or Outcomes

214 3.1 Land Use Change in the Northern Coast of Java 2009-2018 215 Significant urban expansion has taken place in the Northern Coast of Java. The land conversion 216 rate for each river basin based on its rural-urban classification is listed in Table 6. Each basin has a 217 particular growth rate pattern. Bodri Kuto River Basin experienced the most critical changes (up to 218 108%) over nine years compared to the others, which means that massive built-up development 219 occurred in this river basin in terms of settlements and industrial area. It is then followed by 220 Jratunseluna River Basin, which built-up area has expanded from 1,222 to 1,581 sq. km since 2009 to 221 2018. Most of the expansion took place in the urban area at approximately 137%. Meanwhile, the 222 development of Pemali Comal River Basin mostly occurred in the potentially urban area (43.31%), 223 specifically in Tegal and Pekalongan Regency. The growth of built-up area in Wiso-Gelis was 224 significantly higher in the rural area (36.13%) than in the potentially urban (17.54%) and urban 225 (10.08%) areas. This scenario is indicative that substantial urbanization within the study area [7] has 226 led to a significant land conversion that expanded to rural areas surrounding the urban centers. On 227 the governance side, administrative autonomy, which devolves the authority over land use allocation 228 to local government, has led to uncontrollable land conversion due to a lack of coordination among 229 local governments.

230 Table 6. Land Conversion in the Selected River Basins 2009-2018 Area (sq. km) Average Annual River Basin 2009 2018 Change (%) Growth Rate (%) Built-Up Built-Up Jratunseluna 1222.58 1581.26 29.34 3.26 Urban 89.19 211.93 137.62 15.29 Potentially Urban 330.88 467.69 41.35 4.59 Rural 802.51 901.64 12.35 1.37 Wiso-Gelis 70.72 89.81 26.99 3.00 Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 22

Area (sq. km) Average Annual River Basin 2009 2018 Change (%) Growth Rate (%) Built-Up Built-Up Urban 2.38 2.62 10.08 1.12 Potentially Urban 31.42 36.93 17.54 1.95 Rural 36.92 50.26 36.13 4.01 Bodri Kuto 117.17 244.56 108.72 12.08 Urban 12.34 17.4 41.00 4.56 Potentially Urban 41.51 88.39 112.94 12.55 Rural 63.32 138.77 119.16 13.24 Pemali-Comal 556.14 670.71 20.60 2.29 Urban 63.27 69.7 10.16 1.13 Potentially Urban 204.47 293.02 43.31 4.81 Rural 288.4 307.99 6.79 0.75 231 The land conversion status for each river basin varies. Bodri-Kuto River Basin experienced the 232 highest rate of land conversion to built-up area over nine years, followed by Jratunseluna, Wiso-Gelis 233 and Pemali Comal, respectively. The highest increase in built-up area is in the urban area of 234 Jratunseluna River Basin. In contrary, in Pemali Comal and Bodri Kuto River Basin, there was significant 235 increase of built-up area in the potentially urban area, specifically in Tegal and Kendal Regency. 236 As illustrated in Figure 4, the increase of built-up area was not only concentrated in urban areas. 237 Among the three river basins, there was a significant development in potentially urban and rural 238 areas during the 2009-2018 period. Thus, growth in potentially urban areas is also influenced by 239 nearby urban activities. Accordingly, urban expansion is extended to areas surrounding the city 240 centers even though there are more vacant lands available for use. Toll road development and 241 industrial zone establishment have very much influenced the growth and direction of land 242 conversion. To illustrate this, the land allocation for industrial lands in Bodri-Kuto increased 243 significantly, from less than 10 sq. km to more than 60 sq. km. This is then followed by the expansion 244 of residential and commercial activities in surrounding areas to accommodate the needs of industrial 245 employees.

246

247 Figure 4. Land Conversion, 2009-2018 Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 22

248 Figure 5 further illustrates land-use changes in several types of land allocation. Rice fields, 249 forests and mix plantations are dominant throughout the river basins. However, there was a 250 considerable loss of mix plantation land in most of the river basins, except in Jratunseluna. Bodri-Kuto 251 experienced the highest loss of mix plantation areas (that is up to 221 sq. km between 2009 and 2018), 252 followed by Pemali-Comal (13.98%) and Wiso-Gelis (3.28%). In all river basins, the loss of mix 253 plantation areas occurred in potentially urban areas, for example in Tegal, Pekalongan and Demak 254 Regency. Despite the significant reduction of land use for mix plantations, Figure 4 depicts that there 255 was a slight increase in the rural forest area in Bodri-Kuto which went up to approximately 53 sq. km 256 over nine years. Growth of forest area within some river basins in Central Java is in line with the 257 enacted regulations of the Governor of Central Java [29] and the Minister of Environment and 258 Forestry Regulation [30]. The regulation provides evidence that a policy should serve as a strategic 259 instrument in controlling land allocation and improving river performance. 260 The increase of built-up area, especially in certain regencies or rural areas, occurred because land 261 has been converted into rural-urban potential area, and at some point, urban area. Within this 262 scenario, in the nearest future Java will become an urban island, in which built-up areas will expand 263 downstream to upstream, overall creating problems in the environment. Based on the built-up ratio 264 in 2018 (which categorizes the area as a rural-urban potential area), more than 600,000 inhabitants are 265 spread throughout approximately 250 villages. This indicates that more rural areas have been 266 urbanized due to the increasing population and expanding built-up area. For example, Pati Regency 267 has the highest number of villages belonging to the potentially urban area (129 villages), followed by 268 Kudus Regency, where 113 villages are potentially categorized as urban area. Both regencies are 269 located at the downstream of Jratunseluna River Basin. 270

271 272 Figure 5. Land Use Change in Selected River Basins, 2009-2018

273 3.2 Flood Events in the River Basins 274 The frequency of flood in the four river basins fluctuates. There are limited data for flood events 275 in the initial years (2009-2011) because the local disaster management board has yet been established 276 and the mass online media have not been widely used in reporting disaster news in details. 277 Accordingly, in 2009-2011, a small number of floods occurred in all areas, including in the urban, 278 rural-urban and rural areas (Figure 6). The number of flooding in the rural and urban areas has 279 increased in 2012 and 2013 since the disaster data report has been updated. In addition, in 2014, flood Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 22

280 occurrence sharply increased, especially for the rural-urban areas. In the rural areas alone, there were 281 more than 200 incidents of flooding reported. Two most prominent river basins in the study area, 282 Jratunseluna and Pemali Comal River Basin, contribute to a high number of flood events. Specifically, 283 up to 2014, a majority of flood events in the Jratunseluna River Basin happened in namely Pati, Kudus 284 and Jepara Regency. Meanwhile, in the Pemali-Comal river basin, Pekalongan Regency contributes to 285 a massive number of flood incidents. 286 It is notable that the peak of flood events in North Coast of Central Java occurred in 2014, 287 followed by a dramatic drop in 2015 and a steady increase afterwards up to 2018. On average, the 288 height of flood in the study area is 20-40 cm. The flood duration varies from less than one hour to 289 more than 24 hours. In more details, 56 out of 925 flood events analyzed in this study reached a height 290 of 1.5 meters or more and are categorized as severe flooding. This occurred mainly in Pati Regency, 291 Rembang Regency and Semarang City, which are part of the Jratunseluna River Basin, and in several 292 cities or regencies within the Pemali-Comal River Basin, including Pekalongan City and Pemalang 293 Regency. In particular, the worst flood reached up to 3.5 meters in Pemalang Regency in 2018. In 294 addition, 259 flood events were up to 1-meter high, most frequently in Kudus, Pekalongan and Jepara 295 Regency. 296 Figure 6 presents the number of floods in the urban, potentially urban and rural areas 297 surrounding river basins over the past nine years. It is evident that flood mostly took place in the 298 rural areas rather than in the urban and rural-urban areas. The total number of flood events in urban, 299 rural-urban and rural areas in 2009-2018 is 485, 642 and 798 incidents, respectively. Flooding is very 300 much influenced by rainfall intensity. The expansion of urbanization promotes flooding due to the 301 increase of total impervious areas, leading to excessive rainfall. In addition, disaster risk reduction 302 initiatives are also of importance. 303

250

200

150

100

50 Number of Eventsof FloodNumber 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Years

Urban Potentially Urban Rural 304 305 *Flood events data in 2009-2011 are highly depend on online news due to limited data from DMB

306 Figure 2. Flood Events in Urban, Potentially Urban and Rural Areas 307 in the North Coast of Central Java 2009-2018

308 In the study area, flood events occurred during the rainy season. It was identified that 70% of 309 flood events happened in January to March, during which the highest frequency of rainfall was 310 reported, especially in 2014. For example, Pekalongan Regency contributed to the most significant 311 flood events in 2014 (around 45%). According to the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical 312 Agency [31] the highest rainfall in Pekalongan Regency was recorded in January – February at 991 mm 313 and 1,117 mm per month, respectively. In contrast, the rate of rainfall in the same month of the 314 previous and following years was lower, at approximately 500-800 mm per month [32,33]. As 315 revealed by other studies on rainfall patterns, since 2003, Java Island had a shorter term and higher 316 intensity of rainfall [34]. Siswanto and Supari [35] revealed that extreme rainfall in Java tends to be Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 22

317 irregular, in which such event is spatially distributed across the island and the positive and negative 318 trends are proportional. 319 Figure 7 further illustrates flood events in each river basin. Jratunseluna, the biggest river basin, 320 experienced the highest number of floods compared to other river basins. The flood events were 321 concentrated in specific flood-prone area, namely Pati Regency, Kudus Regency and Semarang City, 322 all of which represent the rural, potentially urban, and urban characteristics within Jratunseluna River 323 Basin. In total, there were 1,057 flood events in Jratunseluna River Basin, accounting for up to 48% of 324 total flooding in the rural area over nine years. The rural area of Pati Regency contributed to the 325 highest frequency of flood events, amounting to 219 out of 509 events spread out through 88 rural 326 villages. In addition, up to 31% of flood events in Jratunseluna happened in the potentially urban area, 327 with Kudus Regency experiencing the highest flood frequency with 102 flood events spread 328 throughout 28 villages. In the urban areas, the highest frequency of flood events was recorded in 329 Semarang City, which contributed up to 80% of total urban flood events spread throughout 26 330 kelurahan in 2009-2018. Flood events in the urban area continued to increase considerably over nine 331 years, in contrast to the fluctuating flood in rural and potentially urban areas. The worst flood event 332 in Jratunseluna River Basin took place in Grobogan Regency in 2013, which inundated approximately 333 5,000 houses due to broken embankments. Demak Regency was also hit by severe flooding (1-2 meters 334 in height) in 2017, forcing 1,450 households to abandon their homes. For the case of Jratunseluna, 335 floods mostly hitthe rural area compared to the urban and potentially urban areas. 336 Similarly, the flood events in Pemali-Comal River Basin peaked in 2014, with up to 236 incidents. 337 In total, there were 671 incidents throughout 2009-2018 in the region, spreading through 290 villages 338 dominantly categorized as potentially urban areas. In detail, the number of flood events in potentially 339 urban area within Pemali Comal River Basin was up to 269 flood events, which contribute to 340 approximately 40% of total incidents. Significant built-up land expansion (39%) in the potentially 341 urban areas within Pemali-Comal River Basin was also observed, followed by a rise in flood events in 342 those areas. Pekalongan had the most significant number of flood events compared to other regencies, 343 with 154 incidents spread throughout 46 potentially urban villages. In respect to flood events in rural 344 areas, Pekalongan Regency also contributed to the most significant number (43%) of total incidents. 345 In Pemali-Comal and Jratunseluna River Basin, flood incidents in the urban areas were less frequent 346 than in the rural and potentially urban areas. Interestingly, flooding was more frequent in Pekalongan 347 City compared to in other cities/regencies, which contributed up to 30% of total incidents in the urban 348 area. Additionally, Tegal City and Brebes Regency also contribute to a high number of floods at 349 approximately 25% and 24% of overall urban floods, respectively. This indicates that most villages 350 on the coast of Pekalongan and Tegal Greater Area are prone to flood. More than 10 floods events 351 occurred over nine years in the most flood prone villages within both river basins. Severe flooding in 352 Pemali Comal River Basin took place in Pemalang Regency in 2018. Due to river runoff following 353 heavy rainfall, a flood as high as 3.5 meters inundated thousands of houses in several villages. 354 With their smaller size compared to Jratunseluna and Pemali-Comal, there were fewer flood events 355 in Bodri-Kuto and Wiso-Gelis River Basins. In Bodri-Kuto, there was a considerable fluctuation of flood 356 events from 2009 to 2017, which peaked in 2018 with 53 flood events. Approximately 90% of flood 357 events in this river basin occurred in Kendal Regency, while the rest took place in Semarang City. The 358 urban area of Bodri-Kuto River Basin has the highest contribution of flood events at 60% of total flood 359 events spread throughout 16 villages. It mainly occurred in Kendal Regency, where 13 flood events 360 were reported at the village level. As noted by the Disaster Management Agency [36], flooding in 361 Kendal urban area was caused by river runoff and low drainage capacity for water conveyance. 362 Meanwhile, there was a slight increase in flood events in potentially urban and rural villages in Bodri- 363 Kuto, amounting to 36 and 37 flood events during the nine-year period, respectively. The worst flood 364 in Bodri-Kuto River Basin took place in Kendal Regency in early 2014, during which almost ten districts 365 were affected by a 1.5-meter flood. 366 Similarly, Wiso-Gelis as the smallest river basin experienced the worst flood around 1-1.5 meters 367 in height in 2014. The flood submerged 990 houses in Jepara Regency. In total, 17 flood events were 368 recorded from 2009-2018. This shows that flood events mainly occurred in four villages within the Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of 22

369 rural and urban areas, in which with the number of flood events in the rural area was slightly higher 370 than in the urban area. Accordingly, there is an indication that floods occur only occasionally in the 371 potentially urban areas of the river basin. Since 2016, flooding in Wiso-Gelis River Basin has been 372 trending negatively, as shown by the decreasing number of flood events in the urban, potentially 373 urban and rural areas of this river basin.

374 375 Figure 7. Urbanization and Flood Events in the Four Selected River Basins

376 3.3 Land Use Change and Flood Phenomenon in River Basins

377 The population of Java has significantly grown from four million (at the beginning of the 19th 378 century) to 40 million (in the early 20th century), to more than 150 million inhabitants in 2018 [37,38]. 379 Moreover, the population within our study has increased from 17.1 million in 2009 to 18.3 million 380 lives in 2018. Population growth led to significant land conversion and deforestation, which create 381 an impact on water cycle and rainfall pattern. Longer dry seasons lead to significant water supply 382 problems as the area keeps developing and experiencing rapid population growth. A previous study 383 [39] showed that during the dry season (June and July), the rainfall patterns in most parts of 384 Indonesia, including Central Java, tend to deviate from its normal conditions. 385 The overall contributions of land use and flood events over nine years (between 2009 and 2018) 386 within four river basins are shown in Table 7. Approximately 80% of the river basin areas belong to 387 the non-built-up area, which consists of rice fields, forests and mixed plantation areas. However, at 388 the same time, the overall built-up area also increased significantly in all river basins, while the non- 389 built up area decreased. Bodri-Kuto River Basin showed the highest loss in non-built up area. In 2018, 390 the non-built up area contributed to 85% of the total area within this river basin, while in 2009 the 391 percentage was higher. Nonetheless, there was an upward trend of non-built up area in urban part 392 of Jratunseluna in 2018, which was sharply expanded up to 30%. In contrast, the non-built up area in 393 all other river basins showed a downward trend. The rise of the non-built up area in urban part of 394 the Jratunseluna River Basin was caused by the transformation of settlement areas into mixed 395 plantations or wetlands. For example, in the shoreline of Semarang City and Demak Regency, the 396 increase of non-built up area occurred due to erosion in the area [40]. Accordingly, coastal erosion 397 and inundation have caused a substantial loss of coastal land surrounding Demak Regency. Water as Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 14 of 22

398 Leverage for Resilient Cities Asia Program Report [41] explained that Semarang’s dynamic shoreline 399 has been shifting faster over the last decade due to the changing climate and land subsidence, eroding 400 mangrove areas, fishponds, villages and city assets. Also, the area of Demak Regency has experienced 401 the most significant coastal erosion and loss of mangroves and aquaculture.

402 Table 7. Contribution of Land Use and Flood Events in the Study Areas

403 404 A significant exposure to flood has taken place in the urban and potentially urban areas 405 following the increase of built-up areas (Table 7). Flood events are more frequent in the urban and 406 potentially urban areas, most of which are located nearby the coastal line. This is also in line with a 407 previous study by Rudiarto et al., [7,42] where 40% of flooding events were found within the range 408 of 10 km from the coastline, while 80% of tidal flooding was distributed mostly in the areas of less 409 than 5 km from the coastline. Flooding is a result of various factors, and urban flooding is not only 410 mostly caused by water overflowing from the river (fluvial flooding) but also by land conversion in 411 combination with weak drainage systems (pluvial flooding). As Flooding is more common in the 412 urban areas, which means that densification has a significant influence on the increasing event of 413 pluvial flooding. Densification typically occurs due to the conversion of agricultural land into 414 settlement and industrial land, leaving a lot of the areas vulnerable to flooding [43]. It is likely that 415 the number of rainy days significantly decreases with higher rain intensity. This very much 416 influences the surface water runoff and put more pressure on the river and drainage systems. Robust 417 and adaptive drainage arrangements, therefore, is of importance in this circumstance. 418 Aside from pluvial flooding (which happens mostly in urban fabric area), fluvial flooding 419 (which occurs because of the overbank of the water from the river) also has a significant influence in 420 the rural-urban and rural areas. In this regard, it is caused by land-use change that transforms forests 421 in the rural area into a built-up area. Some rural areas have been hit by intensive flooding, especially 422 in the Jratunseluna and Wiso-Gelis River Basin, which contributed to more than 40% of the total flood 423 events over nine years (Table 7). However, flooding in this region is not only connected to 424 deforestation but also to in situ urbanization. Handayani [44] found that industrialization at the rural 425 level is happening in Central Java. This type of industrialization may potentially lead to the increase 426 of flood risk in areas that are not necessarily located in the big urban center. Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 15 of 22

427 4. Discussion and Issues Emerging from the Study 428 The results that emerged from this study have some implications to the urban development and 429 policies. This study reflects that land use dynamics would depend on policy decisions and 430 implementations for improvement. Sufficient comprehension on policies at the river basin level is an 431 essential prerequisite in flood risk management. For the sake of solution-oriented discussions, two 432 issues emerged from this study. First, the need to create a better understanding on urbanization and 433 flooding phenomenon to raise more solution-oriented awareness through land use policy. This is 434 crucial, especially in countries like Indonesia. For that reason, the authors have put an emphasis on 435 Indonesia through case studies. Second, there is a need to identify the role of governance in flood 436 management, particularly in curbing urban flooding. Both issues are discussed further in the 437 following sub-sections.

438 4.1 River Basins have Dual Spatial Identity that Embraces Policy and Land Use Issues in the Urban System 439 Knowledge concerning river basins dynamics in the urban system is still vague. It is, in most 440 cases, simply viewed as a landscape or an appendage of water bodies [45]. Though it is often used as 441 a point of departure in discussing several issues related to urbanization, it is unduly taken for granted 442 in terms of its functions in the urban system. The analytical aspect of this study offers a renewed 443 systematic way of looking at river basins as a sub-ecosystem embedded within the urban system, and 444 as a concept in the urban discourse. As can be deduced from the case presented in this study (at least 445 in the context of Java), river basins have a dual spatial identity in the urban system. It is both a natural 446 land object, as well as a form of land use. 447 A river basin is a part of the land because it is a section of the “earth surface with all physical, 448 chemical and biological features” [46] (p. xix). It can be viewed as a land object because it is uniquely 449 embedded to (as well as a natural embodiment of) the physical urban system, and yet are 450 distinguishable in legal (invisible) ecosystems recognized in policies, laws and statutes. In fact, within 451 the land administration system, the river basin can be categorized as a cadastral object and as a 452 unique legal entity, which can be both fiat (i.e. invisible) and bona fide (i.e. visible). It has a boundary 453 and can be surveyed and measured in physical, ecological, socioeconomic, and cultural terms. It can 454 also be viewed as a “property” because it is the embodiment of several “set of rights and a set of 455 duties or obligations” (including interests and privileges) that subsist in the urban land, which the 456 urban people expect to leverage or enjoy [47] (p. 2). Hence, it has various forms of values attached to 457 it — including ecological, economic, political, cultural, social, touristic, aesthetic, and other urban 458 functional values. As a result, a river basin should be viewed as a portion of land meant to be 459 administered, managed, and controlled to ensure that it fulfils its function within the urban system. 460 In this regard, flooding is a negative consequence of the relationship between a river basin and its 461 urban surroundings, which makes the area unavailable to urban people. 462 River basins also constitute an essential type of land use in the urban system. The perspective of 463 conceiving the river basins for land use is best illustrated by answering the question: why do urban 464 people want to live around a river basin? In the context of Java, the river basin is a sub-system that 465 embodies vegetation and waterways required for food, energy, water, biodiversity, and shelter, 466 among many others. It serves a cooling effect in the urban heat island concerns [48]. Hence, river 467 basins constitute land use because they are part of the decisions people make regarding land or 468 natural resources available to them within permissible natural and administrative restrictions. Land 469 use is, therefore, a purposeful intervention made by humans concerning what and how to exploit, 470 explore, protect or conserve aspects of the land system [49,50]. Urban river basins are, therefore, 471 subject to land use adoptable by urban people according to permissible natural and legal (or 472 administrative) characteristics, leading to transformations in the way they live in the urban system. 473 How does the above idea relate to tackling urban flooding? The dual spatial identity of river 474 basins (both as a land object and land use in the urban system) offers an opportunity to mitigate 475 flooding, mostly in coastal areas. However, it will also pose a threat if it is not managed well. In the 476 case of Java, it can be argued that built-up area expansion to the upstream area of the river basins 477 lead to significant negative consequences. Not only it threatens the food and water supply Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 16 of 22

478 sustainability (referring to river basin as land), but it also generates issues in infrastructure provisions 479 (such as to manage flood) and ownership due to rapid settlement growth in areas that play a strategic 480 role in the river system (conflict of interest regarding land use). 481 Chen et al. [51] argued that, based on the experience in China, the sprawling built-up land 482 increases the difficulty and costs to deploy and manage hazard-resistant infrastructures, 483 construction-wise. Accordingly, the compact city concept is perceived as the most sustainable urban 484 form to limit the uncontrolled effects of infrastructure provision caused by the need to contain urban 485 growth. Global urban sprawl usually leads to the increase of emission load due to the increased use 486 of transportation. However, what is usually not written much about is that sprawl development 487 causes problems that limit water conveyance and supply. Rudiarto et al. [7] stated that the 488 urbanization of north Central Java has been very significant since the 1990s. This is followed by the 489 increase of climate disasters, as shown by incessant floods. Handayani and Rudiarto [52] have further 490 examined this phenomenon in Semarang Metropolitan, the biggest urban center in the area. In this 491 regard, Douglass [2] argued that it creates an urban disaster in Asia, a situation where agglomerations 492 affect urban areas. Thus, there lies an urgent call to focus on urban growth management in an 493 integrated framework following an ecosystem-based (or eco-based) regional approach. An eco-based 494 approach would involve conceiving the river basins as a unique ecosystem and employing a wide 495 range of ecosystem management activities to reduce the vulnerability of urban people and urban 496 environment due to flooding. In this regard, the approach would tackle urban challenges that arise 497 from the location of river basins. Hence, whereas flooding is a critical problem linked to the river 498 basins, it can be mitigated as part of broader ecological system management. 499 Focusing on the use of urban infrastructure provision to check flood events, Zhou et al. [19] have 500 shown through their study that the drainage system is vital in reducing the risk of urban flood. Based 501 on several cases in major cities in Northern China, they [19] revealed that frequency of flooding is 502 caused by the lack of or failure in the urban drainage system. A similar case in the UK [53] revealed 503 that drainage is essential in reducing flood risk, since flooding is very much influenced by urban 504 densification and changing rainfall patterns. Accordingly, a proper drainage system is very critical 505 to accommodate water conveyance during intensive rainfall. Even though there is still much debate 506 on this matter in Indonesia, just as in the UK, there is evidence of a change in rain patterns in Java 507 due to rapid urban growth and deforestation [54,37]. The number of rainy days is likely to decrease 508 significantly but with a higher intensity of rainfall. This very much influences the surface water runoff 509 and puts more pressure on the river and drainage systems. Such situation requires robust and 510 adaptive drainage arrangements.

511 4.2 There are Several Opportunities to Broaden the Role of Governance in Flood Management 512 Any serious effort to tackle urban flooding induced or influenced by the river basins demands 513 the problematization of river basins, that is, viewing them as a problem that requires a solution. This 514 is important in urban policymaking or urban reform efforts that are targeted for urban flood 515 management. Historically, river basin development “has been used to structure water resource 516 management” [55] (p. 839). Evidence from cases presented in this study shows that the management 517 of river basins, if geared towards solving the flood problems, would have a mitigative effect in 518 controlling the situation. 519 Understanding the opportunities for flood management through governance should be a critical 520 aspect of urban development. The governance of river basins in specific, or water resources in 521 general, would allow urban administrators to explore various technical and socio-political strategies 522 to mitigate flood at various levels (basin, local, regional and national). Consequently, a governance 523 approach capable of addressing both general urban issues and flood challenges is imperative. 524 Governance-related urban policy instruments can serve as an essential factor in ensuring proper flood 525 intervention to manage urbanization and flood prevention. In this regard, Friend et al. [56] argued 526 that there is always a gap between policy planning and implementation, while there is a need for 527 communication and negotiation among actors. Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 17 of 22

528 In the context of Java, such interactions are even more critical in respect to flood prevention, as 529 there are many authorities with different roles and functions that manage the river basins (Figure 8). 530 Both vertical and horizontal coordination are needed to ensure integrated policies. Vertical 531 coordination is essential because the National Government (i.e. the Ministry of Public Works through 532 the River Management Centre) is responsible in managing the rivers from upstream to downstream, 533 while the drainage systems that cross through two different regencies are under the responsibility of 534 the Provincial Government. Institutions at different levels of authority need to work intensively with 535 the local governments (cities and regencies) in regard to the river basin management. This involves 536 spatial planning policies that include various infrastructure provisions under the local government 537 authority. Accordingly, horizontal coordination is also crucial, mostly because urban expansion due 538 to rapid urbanization takes place beyond the administrative jurisdiction. Indeed, integration and 539 collaborations would enable more sustainable urbanization. 540 In principle, the governance arrangement reflects subsidiarity. Each level deals with a specific 541 role and decision making is made at both the top and the lowest level. However, in practice (and 542 focusing on the river basins), decision making in water management is not made at the lowest level, 543 where water is used. The national and provincial authorities are the ones who carry out the roles of 544 river management and drainage systems, respectively. This, therefore, leads to the need for better 545 interagency collaborations to allow for effective communication and co-designing of strategies for 546 action.

547 548 Figure 8. Roles and Responsibilities Related to River Management and Land Use Allocation

549 It is essential to introduce governance in flood management. However, this is a relatively new 550 concept that needs to be discussed further [57,2]. The term becomes vital in current situation because 551 the issue of flooding cannot be solved by one sole organization. After all, it is a multifaceted challenge 552 that affects housing, farming and forestry as well as transport, among many others. It requires an 553 effective decision-making process that involves various sectors and authorities. It also prompts for 554 integrated approaches that are certainly not limited to infrastructural work [58,59]. For this reason, 555 Hegger et al. [13] categorized five types of strategies in flood risk management: flood risk prevention, 556 flood defense, flood risk mitigation, flood preparation and flood recovery. According to Hegger’s 557 strategy typology, land-use change should be controlled through proper spatial planning and this 558 may serve as a policy instrument for flood risk prevention. However, it is interesting to note that 559 based on Hegger et al.’s [13] and Raikes et al.’s [60] investigation in selected countries across the 560 globe, there is still a lack of integration among different types of strategies in place. Policies related 561 to water supply, flood management and spatial planning are also fragmented. Despite that, both 562 scholars [13,60] also argue that fragmentation is inevitable because there are many strategies involved 563 and each country has their own policy direction on flood management, with varying strengths and 564 weaknesses. Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 18 of 22

565 Raikes et al. [60] reveal that most government policies are more focused on infrastructural work 566 rather than on comprehensive flood prevention (through spatial planning policy). Handayani et al. 567 [16] hold a similar position based on their two case scenarios, also done in Indonesia. Accordingly, 568 Pardoe et al. [58] argued that infrastructural work will not be sufficient to accommodate the balance 569 among land, people, and water interactions. Instead, Pardoe et al. [58] proposed for a holistic policy 570 instrument, which is vital to ensure the availability of a sustainable space for people and water. Many 571 countries around the world have their own country-specific strategy for managing flood situations. 572 The Netherlands with the concept of “Room for the River” [61] (p. 369) and the UK with “Making 573 Space for Water” [62] (p. 534) approach demonstrate a case on how flood could be managed through 574 suitable land use allocation. 575 There is, indeed, a responsibility of the government to provide public infrastructures to mitigate 576 flood events. Infrastructure provision requires not only technical capacity and funding but also 577 proper coordination among different government institutions. A considerable amount of investment 578 allocated for significant infrastructural work for flood prevention will only act as a short-term and 579 reactive solution rather than a long-term one. On the other hand, there is an increasing role of 580 developers since most of the land is owned privately. They are dominant players in developing 581 industrial and housing estates, which are regarded as major land conversion within the study area. 582 Accordingly, collaborations with private sectors (landowners) is an excellent opportunity to further 583 manage river basins, mostly to mitigate flood, which is unavoidable in the situation where 584 urbanization (i.e. land conversion) has spread through the whole area.

585 5. Conclusions 586 Limited attention has been paid to the potential effects of river basins on urbanization-associated 587 floods. In general terms, it is well known that “most cities are historically developed near rivers or 588 oceans to ensure the supply of water” [63] (p. 1). It is therefore not surprising that Indonesia — a 589 country surrounded by waters from many rivers — has cities that are located around waters. 590 Therefore, this study confirms Zhang et al.’s [64] (p. 384) thesis that the process of urbanization 591 “exacerbates flood responses” in low-lying areas. Using this case study, we identified possible urban 592 land use components of the global urban flooding crisis. This also implies that rapid urbanization, in 593 addition to the lack of land-use planning (or inappropriate implementation of the plan), have 594 increased the amount of land exposed to floods [63] (p. 1). One key issue deduced from this study is 595 that there is a relationship between flooding and urbanization. However, such relationship may not 596 always be straightforward. It can vary from country to country depending on their respective 597 planning and development strategies, human behavior or response to flood and urbanization 598 scenarios; and most importantly, the role of governance in the management of floods. From the 599 context of land use and management, this study has shown that the river basin is a linkage factor or 600 object in the flood- urbanization relationship. 601 The study highlights the importance of investigating the role of river basins in impacting flood 602 events in highly urbanized areas. Disaster risk reduction through proper land use planning and 603 controlling is an essential instrument for safeguarding urban areas (such as the case study area, and 604 the entire island of Java in Indonesia). This provides an opportunity to sustain coastal or island 605 settlements and prevent them from being converted into urban islands, which may face complex 606 environmental issues, including extreme precipitation or water-related disasters, and 607 hydrometeorology-associated events. However, without proper management measures, technical 608 measures alone are not sufficient to improve this situation. In this regard, the role of governance in 609 flood management is crucial. This aspect is a missing link in the urban environmental risk 610 management strategy in Indonesia. The country’s decentralization policy, which has been in 611 operation since 1999, has led to a cumbersome coordination process for land use allocation instead of 612 a solution-oriented one. Due to the decentralization policy, the local government is lacking of 613 authorities in this context. Instead, each local or municipality government is focused on the 614 economic development, which is highly dependent on massive land conversion with no recourse to 615 geographical delineations of the river basins. Such action will continue to bring dire environmental Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 19 of 22

616 consequences, especially given that no appropriate actions have been taken to alleviate them. Hence, 617 the effect of urban land-use on extreme precipitation and flooding should be studied more explicitly. 618 The study presented in this paper is an urgent call to comprehend urbanization beyond a mere 619 administrative-based process. Urban environmental risks generated from urbanization can be 620 mitigated by understanding their land use components. We hope that this study will motivate other 621 scholars from the Global South to investigate the role of river basins in other urban areas in search of 622 solutions for sustainable environmental risk governance in urban areas.

623 Author Contributions: All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. 624 Conceptualization, W.H. and U.E.C.; methodology, W.H. and I.R.; Resources, W.H., I.R., U.E.C., and I.H.S.P.; 625 Formal analysis, W.H., I.R, and I.H.S.P.; Investigation, W.H., I.R., and I.H.S.P.; writing—original draft 626 preparation, W.H., I.R, and I.H.S.P; writing—review and editing, W.H. and U.E.C.; Validation, W.H., I.R., U.E.C., 627 and I.H.S.P.; visualization, I.H.S.P. 628 Funding: This research was funded by University of Diponegoro and Ministry of Research, Technology, and 629 Higher Education, and the APC was funded by Technical University of Munich.

630 Acknowledgments: Acknowledgment is given to the Director General of Higher Education, Ministry of 631 Research and Technology Indonesia, Diponegoro University, and Technical University of Munich for supporting 632 this research. This publication was supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and the Technical 633 University of Munich (TUM) in the framework of the Open Access Publishing Program.

634 Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest. 635

636 References

637 1. Deng, X.; Xu, Y. Degrading Flood Regulation Function of River Systems in the Urbanisation Process. Science 638 of the Total Environment 2018, 622, 1379-1390. 639 2. Miller, M.A.; Douglass, M (Eds.). Disaster Governance in Urbanising Asia; Springer: Singapore, 2016; pp. 1- 640 12. 641 3. Sarauskiene, D.; Kriauciuniene, J.; Reihan, A.; Klavins, M. Flood Pattern Changes in the Rivers of the Baltic 642 Countries. Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management 2015, 23(1), 28-38. 643 4. Adhikari, P.; Hong, Y.; Douglas, K.R.; Kirschbaum, D.B.; Gourley, J.; Adler, R.; Brakenridge, G.R. A 644 digitized global flood inventory (1998–2008): compilation and preliminary results. Natural Hazards 2010, 645 55(2), 405-422. 646 5. Bertilsson, L.; Wiklund, K.; de Moura Tebaldi, I.; Rezende, O. M.; Veról, A. P.; Miguez, M. G. Urban flood 647 resilience–A multi-criteria index to integrate flood resilience into urban planning. Journal of Hydrology 2019, 648 573, 970-982. 649 6. Buchori, I., et al. Adaptation to coastal flooding and inundation: Mitigations and migration pattern in 650 Semarang City, Indonesia. Ocean and Coastal Management 2018, 163, 445–455. 651 7. Rudiarto, I.; Handayani, W.; Setyono, J.S. A Regional Perspective on Urbanisation and Climate-Related 652 Disasters in the Northern Coastal Region of Central Java, Indonesia. Land 2018, 7(1), 34. 653 8. McGranahan, G.; Balk, D.; Anderson, B. The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human 654 settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environment and urbanization 2007, 19(1), 17-37. 655 9. Neumann, B.; Vafeidis, A.T.; Zimmermann, J.; Nicholls, R.J. Future Coastal Population Growth and 656 Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding-A Global Assessment. PloS one 2015, 10(3), e0118571. 657 10. Deng, X.; Xu, Y.; Han, L.; Song, S.; Yang, L.; Li, G.; & Wang, Y. Impacts of Urbanisation on River Systems 658 in the Taihu Region, China. Water 2015, 7(4), 1340-1358. 659 11. Chin, A. Urban Transformation of River Landscapes in A Global Context. Geomorphology 2006, 79, 460-487. 660 12. Chigbu, U.E.; Kalashyan, V. Land-use planning and public administration in Bavaria, Germany: towards a 661 public administration approach to land-use planning. Geomatics, Land management and Landscape 2015, 4(1), 662 7-17. 663 13. Hegger, D.L.; Driessen, P.P.; Wiering, M.; Van Rijswick, H.F.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Matczak, P.; Crabbé, A.; 664 Raadgever, G.T.; Bakker, M.H.N; Priest, S.J.; Larrue, C.; Ek, K. Toward more flood resilience: Is a 665 diversification of flood risk management strategies the way forward? Ecology and Society 2016, 21(4). Land 2020, 9, x FOR PEER REVIEW 20 of 22

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772 60. Raikes, J.; Smith, T.F.; Jacobson, C.; Baldwin, C. Pre-disaster Planning and Preparedness for Floods and 773 Droughts: A Systematic Review. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 2019, 101207. 774 61. Rijke, J., Van Herk, S.; Zevenbergen, C.; Ashley, R. Room for The River: Delivering Integrated River Basin 775 Management in The Netherlands. International journal of river basin management 2012, 10(4), 369-382. 776 62. Jones, P.; Macdonald, N. Making Space for Unruly Water: Sustainable Drainage Systems and the 777 Disciplining of Surface Runoff. Geoforum 2007, 38(3), 534-544. 778 63. Bae, S.; Chang, H. Urbanisation and Floods in the Seoul Metropolitan Area of South Korea: What Old Maps 779 Tell Us. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 2019, 37, 101186. 780 64. Zhang, W.; Villarini, G.; Vecchi, G.A.; Smith, J.A. Urbanisation Exacerbated the Rainfall and Flooding 781 Caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston. Nature 2018, 563(7731), 384-388. © 2020 by the authors. Submitted for possible open access publication under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 782 REVIEW LAND PAPER Urbanization and Increasing Flood Risk in the Northern Coast of Central Java – Indonesia: an Assessment towards Better Land Use Policy and Flood Management

Thank you so much for all the valuable comments/inputs. They have been very useful in helping us improve the manuscript. In principle, we fully understand and agree that flood happens because of many factors (land-use is not the only factor). We have made some clarifications in several parts:

Line/sentence Explanation Line 36-37: … in addition to the increase of The sentence recognizes sea level rise and coastal flooding caused by sea-level rise and increasing precipitation due to climate change. rainfall pattern deviation as a result of climate change [5-9]. Line 56-58: Many factors affect the occurrence The paper recognizes other factors (with of flooding. However, recent studies in various reference to places were this reflects in the parts of Asia have shown a significant paper). But the focus of the research was on connection between urbanization (influenced land-use because it is recognized in the by land-use change) and flooding events literatures as the most significant. [7,13,16-20]. Line 619-621: This also implies that rapid Another point that shows that the paper urbanization, in addition to the lack of land-use recognizes other factors apart from planning (or inappropriate implementation of urbanization. the plan), have increased the amount of land exposed to floods [63] (p. 1).

Line 98-117 (particularly line 107-109): The sentence (including the whole paragraph) Accordingly, some emerging threats on the may explain why the change of land use (here functions of river basins are mostly triggered by the increase of the built-up area) increases the uncontrolled population growth. Such growth flooding compared to the other areas. results in the reduction of non-built-up areas, as forest and agriculture lands are converted to settlement and industrial zones.

Wiwandari Handayani

[Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140 - Accepted for Publication 1 message

Janie Liu 21 September 2020 at 07:53 Reply-To: Janie Liu , Land Editorial Office To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office , Janie Liu

Dear Dr. Handayani,

We are pleased to inform you that the following paper has been officially accepted for publication:

Manuscript ID: land-916140 Type of manuscript: Article Title: Urbanization and Increasing Flood Risk in the Northern Coast of Central Java – Indonesia: an Assessment towards Better Land Use Policy and Flood Management Authors: Wiwandari Handayani, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto, Intan Hapsari Surya Putri Received: 14 August 2020 E-mails: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Land, Women, Youths, and Land Tools or Methods https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/special_issues/land_women https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/review_info/006103563f1b73d21369ffe38c9a0c6f

We will now make the final preparations for publication, then return the manuscript to you for your approval.

If, however, extensive English edits are required to your manuscript, we will need to return the paper requesting improvements throughout.

We encourage you to set up your profile at SciProfiles.com, MDPI’s researcher network platform. Articles you publish with MDPI will be linked to your SciProfiles page, where colleagues and peers will be able to see all of your publications, citations, as well as your other academic contributions.

We also invite you to contribute to Encyclopedia (https://encyclopedia.pub), a scholarly platform providing accurate information about the latest research results. You can adapt parts of your paper to provide valuable reference information for others in the field.

Kind regards, Ms. Janie Liu Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected]

-- MDPI Branch Office, Beijing Land Editorial Office E-mail: [email protected] http://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/

MDPI AG St. Alban-Anlage 66, 4052 Basel Switzerland Tel. +41 61 683 77 34; Fax +41 61 302 89 18 http://www.mdpi.com/ ------Land is affiliated to IALE http://www.landscape-ecology.org/home.html Wiwandari Handayani

[Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140; doi: 10.3390/land9100343. Paper has been published. - Final Confirmation 2 messages

Janie Liu 23 September 2020 at 16:46 To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Uchendu Eugene Chigbu , Iwan Rudiarto , Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office

Dear Wiwi,

Thank you again for your proofreading. This paper has been published online. Please take a moment to check the online version if everything is correct.

Please check the online version to make sure they are correct, especially Author Names, Affiliations, Figures, Equations, Funding Information, etc. If you would like correct those information, please contact us within 24 hours.

Please note that we are not allowed any corrections after that date.

Sorry for the inconvenience that may cause you. Please let me know your comments.

Best Regards, Janie

Best Regards, Ms. Janie Liu, Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected] ------

On 2020/9/22 16:47, Wiwandari Handayani wrote: Dear Janie, Thank you so much for your kind reminder. I am still working on it. I will send it to you as soon as possible (today my time).

Best, Wiwi

On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 at 15:07, Janie Liu > wrote:

Dear Dr. Handayani,

We recently invited you to proofread your manuscript prior to publication:

Manuscript ID: land-916140 Type of manuscript: Article Title: Urbanization and Increasing Flood Risk in the Northern Coast of Central Java – Indonesia: an Assessment towards Better Land Use Policy and Flood Management Authors: Wiwandari Handayani, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto, Intan Hapsari Surya Putri Received: 14 August 2020 E-mails: [email protected] , [email protected] , [email protected] , [email protected] Land, Women, Youths, and Land Tools or Methods https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/special_issues/land_women

We look forward to receiving your feedback soon. Please refer to the instructions in the previous email, and advise us if there will be any delay. A reminder that you can download your manuscript from:

https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/proof/file/006103563f1b73d21369ffe38c9a0c6f

and upload at:

https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/resubmit/006103563f1b73d21369ffe38c9a0c6f

Supplementary and other additional files can be found at the second link.

Kind regards,

Ms. Janie Liu Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected]

-- MDPI Branch Office, Beijing Land Editorial Office E-mail: [email protected] http://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/

MDPI AG St. Alban-Anlage 66, 4052 Basel Switzerland Tel. +41 61 683 77 34; Fax +41 61 302 89 18 http://www.mdpi.com/ ------Land is affiliated to IALE http://www.landscape-ecology.org/home.html

-- *Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS* Associate Professor

Research Group in Regional Development and Environmental Management Department of Urban and Regional Planning | Diponegoro University Semarang 50275, Indonesia

Wiwandari Handayani 24 September 2020 at 05:25 To: Janie Liu Cc: Intan Hapsari Surya Putri

Dear Janie. Thank you so much for this very good news. Unfortunately, there are still some but very minor corrections might be needed. I am so sorry that we have missed identifying it earlier. There are on page (3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12), due to: 1. use of . and , in the numbers in Table 1 and 4 2. name of the river basin: few are still in italic, miss the (-), and lowercase

Please find enclosed the file with my corrections. Hope it is possible to revise it. Thank you...

Best, Wiwi

[Quoted text hidden] -- Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS [Quoted text hidden]

land-09-00343-manuscript_ed.docx 2697K Wiwandari Handayani

Re: [Land] Manuscript ID: land-916140; doi: 10.3390/land9100343. Paper has been published. - Final Confirmation - Reply 2 messages

Janie Liu 9 October 2020 at 12:44 To: Wiwandari Handayani Cc: Intan Hapsari Surya Putri , Land Editorial Office

Dear Wiwi,

Sorry for my late reply. We had a holiday recently for the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in China. I just got back to work.

The issues you pointed have been updated. You could check it online.

We have posted an announcement of your article on our Twitter and LinkedIn channels, please check and retweet at:

https://twitter.com/Land_MDPI/status/1308962225877647360?s=20

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/landoamdpi_urbanization-flood-coast-activity-6714727941697343488-4NYH

Thank you again for choosing Land to publish your work, we look forward to receiving further contributions from your research group in the future.

Best Regards, Janie

Best Regards, Ms. Janie Liu, Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected] ------

On 2020/9/24 6:25, Wiwandari Handayani wrote: Dear Janie. Thank you so much for this very good news. Unfortunately, there are still some but very minor corrections might be needed. I am so sorry that we have missed identifying it earlier. There are on page (3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 11, 12), due to: 1. use of . and , in the numbers in Table 1 and 4 2. name of the river basin: few are still in /italic, /miss the (-), and lowercase

Please find enclosed the file with my corrections. Hope it is possible to revise it. Thank you...

Best, Wiwi

On Wed, 23 Sep 2020 at 16:46, Janie Liu > wrote:

Dear Wiwi,

Thank you again for your proofreading. This paper has been published online. Please take a moment to check the online version if everything is correct.

Please check the online version to make sure they are correct, especially Author Names, Affiliations, Figures, Equations, Funding Information, etc. If you would like correct those information, please contact us within 24 hours.

Please note that we are not allowed any corrections after that date.

Sorry for the inconvenience that may cause you. Please let me know your comments.

Best Regards, Janie

Best Regards, Ms. Janie Liu, Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected] ------

On 2020/9/22 16:47, Wiwandari Handayani wrote: Dear Janie, Thank you so much for your kind reminder. I am still working on it. I will send it to you as soon as possible (today my time).

Best, Wiwi

On Tue, 22 Sep 2020 at 15:07, Janie Liu >> wrote:

Dear Dr. Handayani,

We recently invited you to proofread your manuscript prior to publication:

Manuscript ID: land-916140 Type of manuscript: Article Title: Urbanization and Increasing Flood Risk in the Northern Coast of Central Java – Indonesia: an Assessment towards Better Land Use Policy and Flood Management Authors: Wiwandari Handayani, Uchendu Eugene Chigbu *, Iwan Rudiarto, Intan Hapsari Surya Putri Received: 14 August 2020 E-mails: [email protected] >, [email protected] >, [email protected] >, [email protected] > Land, Women, Youths, and Land Tools or Methods https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/special_issues/land_women

We look forward to receiving your feedback soon. Please refer to the instructions in the previous email, and advise us if there will be any delay. A reminder that you can download your manuscript from:

https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/proof/file/006103563f1b73d21369ffe38c9a0c6f

and upload at:

https://susy.mdpi.com/user/manuscripts/resubmit/006103563f1b73d21369ffe38c9a0c6f

Supplementary and other additional files can be found at the second link.

Kind regards,

Ms. Janie Liu Section Managing Editor Email: [email protected] >

-- MDPI Branch Office, Beijing Land Editorial Office E-mail: [email protected] > http://www.mdpi.com/journal/land/

MDPI AG St. Alban-Anlage 66, 4052 Basel Switzerland Tel. +41 61 683 77 34; Fax +41 61 302 89 18 http://www.mdpi.com/ ------Land is affiliated to IALE http://www.landscape-ecology.org/home.html

-- *Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS* Associate Professor

Research Group in Regional Development and Environmental Management Department of Urban and Regional Planning | Diponegoro University Semarang 50275, Indonesia

-- *Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS* Associate Professor

Research Group in Regional Development and Environmental Management Department of Urban and Regional Planning | Diponegoro University Semarang 50275, Indonesia

Wiwandari Handayani 9 October 2020 at 15:05 To: Janie Liu

Dear Janie, Thank you so much for the update. I have checked the final online version and am aware that the improvement has been made. Hope there will be other opportunities to publish in LAND again in the future.

Best, Wiwi [Quoted text hidden] -- Dr.-Ing. Wiwandari Handayani, ST, MT, MPS [Quoted text hidden]