A COUNTRY PRIVATE SECTOR DIAGNOSTIC SECTOR PRIVATE COUNTRY A A COUNTRY PRIVATE SECTOR DIAGNOSTIC CREATING MARKETS IN NIGERIA Crowding in the Private Sector: Nigeria’s Path to Faster Job Creation and Structural Transformation October 2020 About IFC IFC—a sister organization of the World Bank and member of the World Bank Group—is the largest global development institution focused on the private sector in emerging markets. We work with more than 2,000 businesses worldwide, using our capital, expertise, and influence to create markets and opportunities in the toughest areas of the world. In fiscal year 2018, we delivered more than $23 billion in long-term financing for developing countries, leveraging the power of the private sector to end extreme poverty and boost shared prosperity. For more information, visit www.ifc.org © International Finance Corporation 2020. All rights reserved. 2121 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 www.ifc.org The material in this report was prepared in consultation with government officials and the private sector in Senegal and is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. IFC does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the content included in this work, or for the conclusions or judgments described herein, and accepts no responsibility or liability for any omissions or errors (including, without limitation, typographical errors and technical errors) in the content whatsoever or for reliance thereon. The findings, interpretations, views, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the International Finance Corporation or of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (the World Bank) or the governments they represent. This publication uses U.S. spelling. All mentions of dollars refer to U.S. dollars, unless otherwise indicated. All data are current as of February 2020 Cover Photos: Yosef Hadar, Arne Hoel / World Bank, LAPO, Santos Akhilele Aburime / Shutterstock.com NIGERIA A COUNTRY PRIVATE SECTOR DIAGNOSTIC ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report was prepared by a core team that includes Olasupo Olusi (co-task team lead and senior economist), Denny Lewis-Bynoe (co-task team lead and senior economist), Anita Okemini (private sector development specialist), and Helen Akanisi (consultant). Other team members include Emilija Timmis (economist), Nneamaka Okechukwu (private sector specialist), Ubong Awah (senior financial sector specialist), Jonathan Gigin (senior financial sector specialist), Lindsey Tan Lim (financial sector specialist), Robert Homans (consultant), Sharon Onyango (financial sector specialist), Grace Ogola (financial sector specialist), Sara Nyman (senior economist), Jakob Engel (economist), Yulia Vnukova (consultant), Ayobambo Salami (investment officer), Ugo Amoretti (senior strategy officer), Muhammad Wakil (energy specialist), Wayne Omonuwa (consultant), Stefan Apfalter (senior evaluation officer), Farhad Ahmed (senior transport specialist), Khairy Al-Jamal (senior water supply and sanitation specialist), Mary Agboli (senior private sector specialist), Olumide Okunola (senior health specialist), Edda Ivan Smith (senior social development specialist), Victoria Stanley (senior land administration specialist), David Ivanovic (senior private sector specialist), Teleola Kola-Edun (consultant), Adetunji Oredipe (senior agriculture economist), Ibrahim Adamu (country officer); Jacob Adeyemo (consultant), Olumide Taiwo (consultant), Ifeoma Johnson (program assistant), Oluwatoyin Jinadu (team assistant), and Irene Marguerite Nnomo Ayinda-Mah (program assistant). The team acknowledges the guidance of Mona Haddad, Rachid Benmessaoud, Shubham Chaudhuri, Kevin Njiraini, Eme Essien, Alejandro Alvarez de la Campa, Rashmi Shankar, Sebastien Dessus, Femi Akinrebiyo, Volker Treichel, Vincent Palmade, Dilip Ratha, Sonia Plaza, Hiroshi Tsubota, Marco Hernandez, Andrej Popovic, Michael Wong, Rajul Ashwati, Olivier Mussat, Feyi Boroffice, Ahmed Rostom, Wenye (Sophie) Dong, James Emery, Khwima Nthara, Jeremy Strauss, Veronica Navas, Muna Meky, Noora Arfaa, Kofi Nouve, Masami Kojima, Siegfried Zottel, Luiz Alcoforado, Rogati Kayani, and Bernadette D’Amico in preparing this report. The team also acknowledges the guidance and comments received from various ministries and agencies of the government of Nigeria. ii CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS II ABBREVIATIONS VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY VIII 1. INTRODUCTION AND COUNTRY CONTEXT 1 1.1 Volatile Growth and High Inequality despite Significant Resource Base 1 1.2 The Challenges of Nigeria’s Oil-Dependent Economy 3 1.3 Beyond Oil — A Path to Sustainable and Inclusive Growth 7 2. STATE OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR 9 2.1 Predominance of the Micro, Small, and Informal Sector 9 2.2 Low Productivity Prevalent Across Sectors 10 3. CROSS-CUTTING CONSTRAINTS IN THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY 11 3.1 Weak Macroeconomic and Financial Sector Policy Framework 12 Fiscal, Monetary, and Exchange Rate Policies 12 Trade Policies 13 Restricted Access to Banking Services 15 3.2 Infrastructure Deficiencies 20 Inadequate Power Supply 21 Grid Power Supply 22 Off-Grid Power Supply 23 Inadequate Public-Private Partnership Framework 25 3.3 Other Constraints 30 Inefficient Anti-Monopoly and Competition Policies 30 Ongoing Violence and Insecurity 32 Corruption 33 Poor Human Capital 34 Inadequate Skills and Education for Private Sector Jobs 35 Weak Health Outcomes 36 Poor Access to Land Because of Inefficient Land Administration 37 4. IDENTIFYING SECTOR OPPORTUNITIES 39 4.1 Agribusiness 40 4.2 Mining 48 4.3 Manufacturing 54 Potential High-Growth Subsectors 56 4.4 ICT and the Digital Economy 60 iii NIGERIA A COUNTRY PRIVATE SECTOR DIAGNOSTIC APPENDIXES 64 A. Choice of Peers: Selecting Comparator Countries 64 B. A Discussion of the 2014–16 Oil Price Shock in Nigeria 66 C. Opportunities for Nigeria: GIFF Methodology 68 D. Identifying Constraints in Enabling Sectors: Nigeria versus Peers 69 E. Public-Private Partnership Opportunities in Infrastructure 71 F. Key Competition Restrictions Identified in Various Sectors 73 G. Identifying Opportunities: Sectors 80 H. Opportunities for Key Minerals in Nigeria 84 REFERENCES 86 NOTES 92 FIGURES Figure 1.1 Economic and Population Growth (2000–18) 2 Figure 1.2 Recent GDP Growth: Nigeria versus Peers 2 Figure 1.3 Exports of Goods and Services (2013–17): Nigeria versus Peers 4 Figure 1.4 Merchandise Exports Composition (by value) in 2017: Nigeria versus Peers 4 Figure 1.5 Doing Business 2020 Comparison for Nigeria versus Select Peers 6 Figure 1.6 Nigeria’s FDI Trends 6 Figure 1.7 Average FDI Net Inflows 2015–17 6 Figure 2.1 MSMEs in Nigeria by Size 10 Figure 2.2 Ownership of MSMEs in Nigeria by Gender 10 Figure 2.3 Low Productivity across Sectors 10 Figure 3.1 Most Problematic Factors for Doing Business in Nigeria, 2017 11 Figure 3.2 Trade Openness of Goods and Services (2008 and 2017): Nigeria versus Peers 14 Figure 3.3 Domestic Credit to Private Sector 15 Figure 3.4 Percent of Firms with Bank Loan/Line of Credit 15 Figure 3.5 Comparison of Nigeria’s PPP Frameworks, 2018 26 Figure 3.6 Nigeria’s Score versus Peers’ Scores on Market-Based Competition and Anti-Monopoly Policy 30 Figure 3.7 Nigeria’s Score versus Peers’ on Perceived Business Risks Related to Weak Competition Policies 30 Figure 3.8 Share of Firms Experiencing Bribes 33 Figure 3.9 Inflation and Corruption Perception Index 33 Figure 3.10 Nigeria’s Poor Human Capital Outcomes, 2015 35 Figure 3.11 Digital Skills among Population: Nigeria versus Peer Countries 36 iv Figure 4.1 Opportunities for Agribusiness across Nigeria 41 Figure 4.2 Mining Opportunities in the North of Nigeria 49 Figure 4.3 Economic Complexity 55 Figure 4.4 Manufacturing Subsectors by Development Characteristics 55 Figure 4.5 Blending Plants for Batches 1 and 2 of the Presidential Fertilizer Inititative 57 Figure 4.6 Entry Rate of New Firms and Innovation among New Firms (2012–17) 61 Figure A.1 Comparisons with Indonesia and Malaysia 65 Figure B.1 Evolution of Government Revenues and Comparisons with International Peers 66 Figure B.2 Oil Price Shock and Fiscal Indicators 67 Figure B.3 Oil Price Shock and Monetary Indicators 67 Figure C.1 Potential Opportunities based on Growth Identification and Facilitation Framework for Nigeria 68 Figure D.1 The State of Business Environment “Enablers”: Nigeria versus Peers 69 Figure G.1 Sector Fitness Analysis 82 TABLES Table 3.1 Sectoral Distribution of Banking Sector Credit, December 2018 16 Table 4.1 GDP and Labor Intensity of Sectors 39 Table 4.2 Production Levels 43 Table 4.3 Profitability of Agribusiness Value Chains 44 Table E.1 Public-Private Partnership Opportunities in Infrastructure 71 Table F.1 Government Interventions that Affect Competition 73 Table G.1 Top 20 Products by Revealed Comparative Advantage 80 Table G.2 Distance Index by Product 81 Table G.3 Potential Opportunities on the Basis of Sector Fitness 83 Table H.1 Opportunities for Key Minerals in Nigeria 84 BOXES Box 3.1 Raising Long-Term Financing: The Limited Role of Nigeria's Capital Markets 29 Box 3.2 Innovations for Better Large-Scale Land Investment: FRILIA and LARF 38 Box 4.1 Community Block Farming 45 Box 4.2 Repositioning Nigeria's Insurance Industry to De-Risk Key Sectors like Agribusiness 46 Box 4.3 Informal Mining in the Gold Subsector 50 Box 4.4 Developing the Leasing Sector: Opportunity for Equipment Financing for Small Producers 52 Box