Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States Through Resilience and Resistance
Research Report C O R P O R A T I O N STEPHEN J. FLANAGAN, JAN OSBURG, ANIKA BINNENDIJK, MARTA KEPE, ANDREW RADIN Deterring Russian Aggression in the Baltic States Through Resilience and Resistance Introduction The governments and citizens of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—the Baltic states—are subject to daily Russian strategic information operations and propaganda activities that are part of campaigns designed to undermine trust in their institutions, foment ethnic and social tensions, and erode confidence in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) KEY FINDINGS collective defense commit- ■ Total Defense and Unconventional Warfare (TD/UW) techniques and ments. These three countries forces can support deterrence, early warning, de-escalation, defense are also vulnerable to low-level, against invading forces, and liberation from occupation during the hybrid, and full-scale attacks by course of a hybrid or conventional conflict. Russian special operations and ■ Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are committed to enhancing the size and regular military forces deployed capabilities of their national guards and reserve forces and increasing close to their borders. In light whole-of society resilience and resistance efforts. All three countries of these concerns, and given are improving and expanding their small special operations forces. the imbalance between Russian ■ The United States, other NATO allies and partners, and the European and NATO conventional forces Union could take further concrete steps to support the development deployed in the Baltic region, of Baltic TD/UW capabilities by strengthening cooperation on crisis these governments and others management, intelligence sharing, civilian resilience, and countering Russian information warfare and hybrid attacks.
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