497 9 - 15 April 2010 16 Pages Rs 30 Prachanda’S Choice
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#497 9 - 15 April 2010 16 pages Rs 30 Prachanda’s choice PRASHANT JHA n more than twenty years of will not be willing to accept heading a ‘revolutionary’ Dahal as the Prime Minister. I party, Maoist Chairman Bhattarai’s name has been thrown Pushpa Kamal Dahal has had to up as a compromise candidate. make difficult decisions on Since the peace process began, several occasions. But the next the party has been driven by month may well be the ultimate Dahal’s leadership and test of his political judgment, Bhattarai’s political line. But this priorities and leadership. would overturn that formula. At Khula Manch this week, Dahal is understandably Dahal made it clear there could insecure. He has told aides that a no peace or constitution as long ‘deep conspiracy’ is underway to as this government is in place. sideline him and divide the To oust Madhav Kumar Nepal, party. Critics allege that this Maoists could table a no- insecurity is essentially a result confidence motion and get 301 of Dahal’s excessive ambition and seats. This approach has been fear that Bhattarai could develop under consideration in the party, his own power base and emerge but senior leaders like as a better PM than he was. But Dr Baburam Bhattarai have Dahal supporters say that he is opposed replacing one majority more concerned about the government with another. implications on party structure He is reported to have argued and the balance between its that the country needs a national various factions. unity government to complete Dahal is being asked to give the transition, not merely a up on certain key instruments of Maoist-led government with the the party machinery (like the support of a few smaller groups. PLA and YCL); dilute his Bhattarai believes that the political agenda; convince the Maoists should project this cadre about the need to government as a total failure, transform; sideline dogmatists; wage a public campaign to and accept Baburam Bhattarai or discredit it further, and then someone from another party as assert its claim to the leadership the compromise prime minister as May 28 approaches. of a national government. For a national unity It is a tough check-list, government to be formed, NC and requiring statesmanship, UML have laid out strict sacrifice, confidence about one’s conditions – an agreement on the own personal strengths, and faith future of former Maoist in colleagues. Dahal’s decisions combatants, and the dismantling and political skills will of the YCL. Even then, determine the future of Nepali non-Maoist parties and India politics. KIRAN PANDAY 2| 9 - 15 APRIL 2010 #497 PUBLISHER’S NOTE the dead. back to war unless they get total power. The portrait There hasn’t been a public reorientation of the party to of Stalin on the walls of Maoist leaders isn’t there just peaceful pluralism. And until that happens, there just won’t for show. NOT IMPOSSIBLE be the requisite trust among the non-Maoist parties and A majority of Nepalis don’t really care if the the main international players to agree to hand over the constitution is written by the deadline or not, they just In all the distraction of the political meanderings and responsibility of power to them again. don’t want to die in another war, and they want their shadow boxing of the past month, what is often forgotten What is bizarre is the tolerance shown by missions of lives to improve. The priority now is to defuse the is that the Maoist party hasn’t abjured violence. In fact, supposedly democratic and civilised countries in explosive uncertainty over May 28. The meeting it is just the opposite. Kathmandu to such incendiary rhetoric. Anyone calling on between the president and the three parties (including Pushpa Kamal Dahal, in his speech to supporters at the Maoists to give up violence is immediately labelled a the Maoists) on Sunday cleared the air a bit. More Tundikhel on Wednesday, once more threatened fire ‘rightist status quoist’. Or fingers are pointed at the needs to be done. and brimstone, and the mother of all rebellions. His relatively docile youth wings of other parties, which If the Maoists now publicly commit to non-violent speech, of course, wouldn’t have been complete without sprang up in reaction to the YCL. Since when did politics a lot of things will fall into place, and could a threat to unleash another bloodbath if his party was speaking for ahimsa become reactionary? Why does a pave the way for a Maoist-led national government. not allowed to capture state power. And sure enough it party that won power through the ballot still need the Such a coalition can then quickly agree on integration came: “This time it won’t just be 15,000 people who’ll bullet? numbers and the operating principles of a new be killed but 30,000.” The argument usually is that the Maoists need to say constitution to be announced on May 28, the details of One could only take perverse satisfaction in the such things (and lie to the UN about guerrilla strength) to which can be fleshed out later. downsizing of the threat. Six months ago the Chairman appease their hardcore cadre. That argument may have said 1,000,000 would be killed. And this time he worked before, but it doesn’t anymore. This is the familiar mercifully didn’t threaten to “swim in the blood” of Maoist method of blackmailing with the threat of going countries prefer to work behind It was because we couldn’t the scenes to influence manage our internal conflict that decisions. Recent years have we had to invite the United shown that China may also be Nations. We brought them here Diplomatic disaster trying to exert influence not just initially for six months, they to counter its traditional rival, have been here for two years. but also to reflect its growing Until we have an internal international stature. agreement about army integration GUEST COLUMN Indo-Nepal relations are and the kind of military we want, Bhekh B Thapa influenced less by what New no foreigner can give us Delhi wants and more by our suggestions, nor can we resolve leaders’ beggarly conduct, based those issues ourselves. Which is on selfish rather than broad why we can neither keep UNMIN, he year 2066 will go down national interests, even to the nor can we do without them. in history as a time when extent of inviting interference in Not only do we have a weak T Nepal became more interpersonal and intra party foreign policy, it is looking like dependent than ever before conflicts. The ‘traditional’ parties we don’t have a policy at all. A on the outside world. always behaved as if they country’s foreign policy is the Diplomatically speaking, it was couldn’t get ahead without a nod extension of its national interest, a year of uncertainty, difficulty from Delhi, and the new parties and it rarely changes with a and a lack of clarity. In 2066, Nepal became less independent are also not immune to this change in government. But here Our immediate neighbours attitude. As a result, in recent we are assuring foreign powers India and China and indeed the than ever before in its history years, outside powers have also that we will be their friend if they rest of the international been consulting India in propel us individually or community had hoped that after thought of as law-abiding and influence on Nepal, but China formulating their Nepal policy. organisationally to power. Even the restoration of peace in 2006, benign. Not any more. has also increased its interest, as Nepal is increasingly seen by those who use a different Nepal would reap the peace At a diplomatic level, the manifest in the greater number of other countries as a country vocabulary sooner or later show dividend, and there would be national interest has been visits by Chinese dignitaries and that is incapable of taking care that they are beholden. stability, development and the replaced by our selfish, clannish security delegations. of itself. Few had expected this rule of law. Now that hope has and partisan behaviour. Instead When there is internal For their part, the Europeans country to be so dependent on the been replaced by concern, if not of selecting representatives to instability, outsiders will be have always prioritised outside world as it is today. fear, that the country may slide other countries on the basis of more vigilant and active to development and human rights. Which is why, instead of into an ethnic or sectarian merit, character and competence safeguard their own national But they have been dismayed by empathy, all we get from the conflict. Nepalis themselves are they are chosen through inter- interest. India and China are Nepal’s confusion and how international community is an not just wondering if the party swapping. This has not just global geopolitical rivals, and political infighting has made attitude of pity. The challenge is constitution will be written on weakened our foreign relations some of this competition is even relatively easy activities within us, not beyond our time, but whether it will be but also muddied Nepal’s reflected in Nepal as well. much more difficult to borders. written at all. international reputation. While the Indians have implement. They thought they Nepal may have been poor, The past year saw a marked traditionally been active across could be helpful to the peace Bhekh B. Thapa, former foreign but it was always regarded with increase in the activity of foreign the board, the Chinese were process and constitution writing minister, was also Nepali affection in the international powers in Nepal.