F OCHA Nepal - Fortnightly Situation Overview Issue No. 25, covering the period 15 -28 April 2008 Kathmandu, 29 April 2008 Highlights: • Constituent Assembly Election proceeds with re-polling in 12 districts and announcement of results for FPTP and PR • CPN/M wins 220 seats overall, NC 110, UML 103, and Terai based parties 81. Twenty-five parties will be represented in 601-member Assembly • Parties discuss formation of Assembly, government, constitutional questions and implementation of earlier agreements • Violence recedes, with sporadic and isolated confrontations continuing • Armed Terai groups continue activities, but limited to certain areas • Operational space normalizes after elections • Onset of summer heat leads to outbreaks of kala-azar and other diseases CONTEXT 601 seat assembly 6 parties and independents, 2 each 6 parties, 1 each Vacant (By-election), 5 Constituent Assembly election and politics Vacant (to be appointed), 26 Rastriya Janshakti Party, 3 Nep Workers and Peasants Party, 4 Rastriya Janamorcha, 4 Re-polling and election results Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal, 4 Communist Party of Nepal (Utd.), 5 Janamorcha Nepal, 7 Communist Party of Nepal (M .L.), 8 CPN (M aoists), 218 Following the 10 April elections to the Constituent Assembly Rastriya Prajatantra Party, 8 (CA), the re-polling in 12 of 75 districts was completed Sadhvawana Party, 9 according to schedule with the last constituency voting on 19 Tarai M adhes Loktantrik Party, 20 M adhesi People's Rights Forum, April. Counting in all district counting centers was completed 50 by 23 April and results were announced accordingly. CPN (U.M .L.), 103 According to the final tally, the Communist Party of NC, 109 Nepal/Maoists (CPN/M) won 120 out of the total 240 seats under First-Past the Post-System (FPTP). Nepali Congress Based on provisional results announced so far. SPA allies underlined. (NC) came second with 37 seats followed by the CPN/Unified Marxist Leninist (UML) with 33 seats, and the Madhesi Sporadic political violence Janadhikar Forum (MJF, or MPRF) with 30 seats in that system. Together with the Terai Madhes Democratic Party Physical violence between party supporters has decreased (TMDP) and the Sadbhavana Party (SP) the parties that led the significantly after 10 April, although a number of isolated February agitation in the Terai thus won in 43 constituencies. scuffles and clashes between parties continued to be reported Several other parties also won in a small number of FPTP seats. from across the country (including Bajhang, Panchthar and Baglung). In some constituencies, such incidents hampered or Under the proportional representation (PR) system, the delayed re-polling by some days. In other places, victory rallies CPN/M won 29.28 percent of the vote, the NC and UML won triggered violent confrontations between party supporters. The 21.14 and 20.33 percent, whereas the MJF and TMDP secured newly elected CA member and Finance Minister Ram Sharan 6.32 percent and 3.16 percent of the vote respectively. The EC Mahat (NC) and several others were injured when a group of subsequently allocated 335 constituent assembly seats under Maoist supporters attacked him and his entourage in a village the PR system to all parties that received at least 23,512 votes. in Nuwakot on 14 April. Media also reported that 22 NC The CA will therefore have representation of 25 political activists were displaced from villages in Rukum district due to parties. threats from Maoist cadres. The EC has asked the parties to submit the final names of the Senior leaders of the NC and the UML have accused the CPN/M candidates representing different quotas under the closed list of having won the election primarily due to intimidation and within seven days, i.e. by 2 May 2008. This does not yet threats. On the other hand, the numerous killings of Maoists constitute the ”final results‘ as stipulated in the Interim prior to the election have yet to be investigated. However, Constitution, which will only be announced once parties have despite allegations against each other, the major political finalised their PR representatives and the EC has signed off on parties have accepted the results of the election. these. When this is complete and the EC announces the final results of the election, the first meeting of the CA must take Political reorientation and formation of a new government place within 21 days. According to the current timetable, this would be late May. Following the news on the election results, the CPN/M has been in an positive about its success, and is widely expected to Altogether the allocation of seats for the 601-member CA lead the new government, to be formed after the convening of pending the appointment by the Council of Ministers of the CA. Notably, the CPN/M will be the strongest party, but will another 26 members looks as follows. CPN-Maoist achieved fall short of commanding a simple majority, let alone a two- 220 representative seats followed by NC with 110, CPN-UML thirds majority required for amendments to the Interim 103, MPRF 52, TMDP 20, SP 9, RPP and CPN-ML 8 each, PFN Constitution or the adoption of the new Constitution itself. 7, CPN-U 5 and others 33 seats. By-elections will be held for 5 Meanwhile, the Interim Constitution requires the government seats as several candidates have won in two constituencies to be formed on the basis of consensus among the —Seven Party (CPN/M-2, NC-1 and MPRF-2). Alliance“, i.e. the CPN/M, the NC, the UML, as well as several OCHA Nepal Situation Overview, Issue No. 25 / 29 April 2008 1 other smaller parties. It also requires a two-thirds majority for Safety and Security changing the government. The United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) has praised the Disappointed by the results, and following the resignation of Nepal Army and Maoist People‘s Liberation Army for their role the erstwhile party leader, UML ministers in the current during the election. The temporary security force established government (Foreign Minister Sahan Pradhan, Minister for specifically for the elections, has been dissolved. Education Pradip Nepal, Minister for Agriculture Chhabi Lal Biswokarma, Minister for Tourism and Civil Aviation Prithvi Meanwhile, the activities of different Terai armed groups and Subba Gurung, Minister for General Administration Ram criminality remain a large concern, even though their impact is Chandra Yadav) have tendered their joint resignation. The localized and limited. IED explosions have continued to occur, Prime Minister, Girija Prasad Koirala (NC) has yet to accept and other activities such as abductions, threats and extortion these and has urged the UML to reconsider. The UML is yet to have been reported. Notably, in an area in Siraha, the voter take a final decision about joining a future government. turnout on 10 April was nil, due to threats issued to the population by armed groups. Meanwhile, the NC is apparently split on whether it will join the CPN/M in a new government, as several senior leaders and On 14 April, the Nepal Army defused a bomb placed on the party factions have called for not joining the Maoists. Others premises of Damak municipality (Jhapa), which a group known have called for the fulfillment of certain conditions by the as Limbuwan Army claimed it had placed to press its demand CPN/M, such as renouncing violence, and the dissolution of for autonomy to Limbuwan region in eastern Nepal. the YCL, or the destruction or surrender of all arms held by the Maoist army before talking about cooperation. The latest talks On 21 April four persons were injured in an explosion in Gaur are reported to foresee a possible power-sharing agreement (Rautahat) at the residence of the local Chamber of Commerce between the major parties. president, which was later claimed by the Terai Cobra —on the charge of spying and not providing donation to the party“. The Interim Constitution is not precise on a number of transitional arrangements, such as the continuation of the In Birgunj (Parsa) the series of explosions continued. On 16 incumbent interim government, the formation of a new one, April, four persons including two women were injured in an and the nomination of the appointed CA members. The explosion at the office of the Federation of Nepalese Constitution is also silent about the role of the Head of State Journalists. Nobody has claimed responsibility for the incident. after the formal abolishment of the monarchy by the first CA On 19 April, an explosive detonated at the house of a session. Negotiations are being held among the three major businessman after he has reportedly refused to pay ransom to parties as well as the MJF, the largest of the Terai based parties the JTMM. On 24 April six persons were hurt in two separate to resolve the outstanding issues. explosions claimed by the Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM) œPrithvi. The MJF, which will have considerable clout in the new assembly but is not included in the ”seven-party‘ formula, has The JTMM has also taken responsibility for having detonated stated that it will not join an all-party government until the bombs at three places in Rautahat district on 15 April, causing eight-point and the 22-point agreements reached with the no casualties. government are implemented. MJF leader Yadav said on 24 April that the party would launch an agitation program if the Reach of the State government disregarded his demands for a declaration of Madhesi region as one Pradesh (federal state). The situation regarding the presence of VDC secretaries and other government officials in many rural areas across the CPN/M leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal, alias Chairman country remains unchanged.