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Election Redux for Financial Services ​

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Election Redux for Financial Services ​ MEMORANDUM From: FS Vector ​ Date: November 4, 2020 ​ RE: Quick Reaction: Election Redux for Financial Services ​ The Morning After: Election Redux for Financial Services On the presidential front… After a grueling night of ups and downs for both camps, we are ​ right back where we started: Paths to victory exist for both candidates, but Biden’s is clearer; NV + MI + WI = Biden at 270 (does not need PA). A lot of ballots left to be counted in ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ urban/suburban areas trending towards Biden make this the likely outcome. Legal battles already underway will make this a murky road. As for Congress… Republicans win by not losing. No Blue Wave in House or Senate. In fact, ​ the Dem 17-seat majority in the House could slip to 10 with flipped seats in FL-26, FL-27, ​ ​ ​ ​ MN-7, NM-2, NY-11, OK-5, and SC-1. With votes still coming in, only Dem pickups so far are ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ in remapped seats in heavily favored NC-2 and NC-6. The Senate is 47-47 w/ AK both GA ​ ​ ​ ​ races, ME, MI & NC unclear. As of now, Dems are net 1 (pickups in AZ and CO and loss in AL). ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ They need +3 to take the majority with a Biden win. Jan runoff guaranteed in GA-special. ​ ​ The committees… It looks more likely that the Senate Banking Committee (SBC) will be ​ chaired by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) for two years (until he retires). As he said recently, he ​ ​ would like to prioritize housing finance reform, lowering the cost of investing for middle income investors, and “exciting changes” in fintech, payments systems, and the possibility of a digital currency. SBC election night losers: Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) and Sen. Martha McSally ​ ​ ​ (R-AZ). SBC election night winner: Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN). Still uncalled races (although ​ ​ ​ ahead as of 11/4 AM): Sen. David Perdue (R-GA) and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). ​ ​ ​ ​ A good night for incumbents… House Financial Services Committee Republican incumbents ​ in close races came out on top (Rep. French Hill (AR-2), Rep. Van Taylor (TX-3), Rep. Ann ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Wagner (MO-2), and Rep. Lee Zeldin (NY-1)), while Democrats are trending towards wins ​ ​ ​ (Rep. Cindy Axne (D-IA) and Rep. Ben McAdams (UT-4)). As the House Dem majority looks ​ ​ ​ ​ likely to shrink, so too will the ratio of Ds to Rs on the House Financial Services Committee, leaving Chairwoman Maxine Waters (D-CA) with less leeway to pass priority legislation. Some new faces… A number of newly-elected Members of Congress will bring financial ​ services policymaking and/or business experience to the Hill, including: Byron Donalds ​ (R-FL-19), Scott Franklin (R-FL-15), Andrew Garbarino (R-NY-2), Nancy Mace (R-SC-1), Matt ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Rosendale (R-MT-At large), Marilyn Strickland (D-WA-10), and Ritchie Torres (D-NY-15). ​ ​ ​ ​ ​ Some old faces… A pair of former Members moved Districts and found victory: Darrell Issa ​ ​ (R-CA-50) and Pete Sessions (R-TX-17). Both have previously been active on financial ​ ​ ​ services issues with Sessions likely to return to HFSC and lobby for seniority. .
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