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2020 Election Roadmap

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2020 Election Roadmap 2020 Election Roadmap A guide to the 2020 congressional and gubernatorial elections Brought to you by The ESOP Association October 7, 2020 Keys to the 2020 Senate election State of play § To gain majority in the Senate, Democrats would need to gain four seats or three seats and the presidency to break a 50-50 partisan tie 1 § Out of the 35 seats up for reelection, 12 are currently held by Democrats and 23 are currently held by Republicans § Five Republican seats are rated as Toss Up by The Cook Political Report (Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Montana, and North Carolina) Compounding effect of multiple competitive races § In Arizona, the race between incumbent Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and retired astronaut 2 Mark Kelly (D) has become increasingly competitive and Arizona’s role as a swing state in the presidential election will bring a slew of spending and effort to increase turnout for both elections § In North Carolina, the 2020 Senate, gubernatorial, and presidential race are all competitive Republicans mostly on defense 3 § The 2020 Senate election map put Senate Republicans on defense for this election § Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), currently rated as Lean R, and Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI), currently rated as Lean D, seem to be the only opportunity for Republicans to increase their majority in the Senate SOURCE 270towin, The Cook Political Report, Politico. 2 Keys to the 2020 House election State of play § To win the majority in the House, Republicans must pick up 18 seats 1 § Out of the 28 seats rated as Toss Ups by The Cook Political Report, 16 belong to incumbent Democrats while 12 belong to incumbent Republicans § Out of the 89 seats rated as competitive, 43 belong to Democrats and 46 belong to Republicans Democrats’ strong position in the House § Heading into the 2020 election, about three times as many Republicans (27) will not 2 seeking reelection as Democrats (10) § Democrats hold a wide lead in most generic ballot polls and hold a strong advantage due to strong fundraising efforts at the candidate level and weak recruitment efforts for House Republicans SOURCE 270towin, The Cook Political Report, Politico. 3 Senators up for re-election In states won by the opposing party’s 2016 presidential candidate Democrats ■ Democratic Senator ■ Republican Senator Doug Jones (AL) Ed Markey (MA) Clinton Victory Trump Victory Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Jeff Merkley (OR) Chris Coons (DE) Gary Peters (MI) Cory Booker (NJ) Jack Reed (RI) Dick Durbin (IL) Tina Smith (MN) AK Michigan Maine ME Tom Udall (NM)* Mark Warner (VA) Gary Peters (D) won Susan Collins (R) won in 2014 by 13.3% in 2014 by 37.0% VT NH Republicans WA ID MT ND MN IL WI MI NY RI MA Dan Sullivan (AK) Cory Gardner (CO) Mitch McConnell (KY) OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT Jim Risch (ID) Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) Thom Tillis (NC) CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE Lamar Alexander (TN)* Shelley Moore Capito (WV) Martha McSally (AZ) David Perdue (GA) AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC Joni Ernst (IA) Bill Cassidy (LA) Steve Daines (MT) Jim Inhofe (OK) OK LA MS AL GA Lindsey Graham (SC) Mike Enzi (WY)* Colorado Tom Cotton (AR) Kelly Loeffler (GA) Cory Gardner (R) TX FL Susan Collins (ME) won in 2014 by 1.9% Alabama Pat Roberts (KS)* Mike Rounds (SD) Doug Jones (D) won Ben Sasse (NE) in a 2017 special John Cornyn (TX) HI election by 1.5% *Senators not seeking reelection in 2020 SOURCE US Senate. 2/2/20 4 Republicans hold 8 out of 10 Senate seats most likely to flip party control Hotline’s 2020 Senate power rankings POWER RANKINGS IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL 1. Alabama: ■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat • Incumbent: Doug Jones (D) Outline indicates it is in top five states most likely to flip • Challenger: Former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville (R) 2. Colorado: • Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R) 7 5 • Challenger: Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 3. Arizona: 9 • Incumbent: Martha McSally (R) 6 • Challenger: Veteran & retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) 2 4. North Carolina: 4 • Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R) • Challenger: Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) 3 10 1 8 5. Maine: • Incumbent: Susan Collins (R) • Challenger: State House Speaker Sara Gideon (D) 6. Iowa — Joni Ernst (R) 7. Montana — Steve Daines (R) 8. Georgia — Kelly Loeffler (R) 8. Georgia — David Perdue (R) 9. Michigan — Gary Peters (D) 10. South Carolina — Lindsey Graham (R) SOURCE US Senate. 9/16/20 5 Split ticket voting is on the decline in recent years Percent of House districts won by the opposite party for president DATA FROM THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION’S 2019 VITAL STATISTICS ON CONGRESS Possible reasons for the decrease: • Increased political polarization 44.1% 43.7% • Self-sorting of the population • The advantages of incumbency 33.3% 34.0% 29.9% 32.0% 32.8% 25.2% 28.5% 26.1% 25.1% 21.3% 24.1% 18.9% 19.3% 19.8% 14.1% 19.1% 14.6% 11.8% 10.5% 14.1% 13.6% 11.2% 8.0% 6.7% 3.4% 6.0% 3.2% 1.6% '00 '04 '08 '12 '16 '20 '24 '28 '32 '36 '40 '44 '48 '52 '56 '60 '64 '68 '72 '76 '80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16 SOURCE US Senate. 2/2/20 6 Democrats hold 14 of the 20 most likely House seats to flip, but will likely retain their majority POWER RANKINGS Hotline’s 2020 House power rankings IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL 1. TX-23: Rep. Will Hurd (R)* 2. OK-5: Rep. Kendra Horn (D) ■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat 3. SC-1: Rep. Joe Cunningham (D) 4. NM-2: Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D) 5. NY-22: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) 6. GA-7: Rep. Rob Woodall (R)* 7. IA-1: Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) 8. GA-6: Rep. Lucy McBath (D) 9. MN-7: Rep. Collin Peterson (D) 10. IA-3: Rep. Cindy Axne (D) 11. ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D) 12. TX-24: Rep. Kenny Marchant (R)* 13. NY-11: Rep. Max Rose (D) 14. CA-21: Rep. T.J. Cox (D) 15. PA-10: Rep. Scott Perry (R) 16. TX-7: Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) 17. NJ-3: Rep. Andy Kim (D) 18. IL-13: Rep. Rodney Davis (R) 19. CA-48: Rep. Harley Rouda (D) 20. TX-22: Rep. Pete Olson (R)* * Incumbent not seeking reelection in 2020 SOURCE National Journal. 7/27/20 7 National GOP committees have raised about $195 million more than their Democratic counterparts Total receipts by national party PACs AS OF AUGUST 31, 2020 ■ Democratic PAC ■ Republican PAC 5 5 RNC $533M DNC $282M 3 3 2 DCCC 2 $249M NRCC $191M NRSC $168M DSCC $165M Total Dem $696M Total GOP $891M SOURCE FEC 9/29/20 8 Roadmap § Congressional elections § Gubernatorial elections 9 Keys to 2020 gubernatorial races Few possibilities for party flips 1 § Currently, Democrats hold 24 governorships while Republicans hold 26 § In the 2020 elections, seven GOP seats are up for election while four Democratic seats are up for election § However, only two seats are likely to possibly flip parties (NC-Cooper (D) and MT-Open (D)) High visibility during COVID-19 outbreak could favor incumbents § State response has been in the spotlight during the COVID-19 outbreak, leading to coverage of 2 governors and more exposure to the public § In multiple public polls, governors have a higher approval rating than President Trump on their handling of the coronavirus Governorships do not always align with partisanship for other offices § Presidential and Senate elections do not necessarily indicate which party will win the governor seat in a state 3 § Although President Trump won Montana by 20 points in 2016, Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) won his election although it was a slimmer margin § Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) (up for reelection in 2022) has won two consecutive gubernatorial elections despite Maryland electing two Democratic senators and Democrats winning the state in presidential elections since 1992 SOURCE The Cook Political Report, 270towin. 12/13/19 10 There are only two open seats up for election in 2020 2020 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status ■ Dem incumbent (3) ■ GOP incumbent (6) ■ Dem open (1) ■ GOP open (1) AK ME VT NH WA ID MT ND MN IL WI MI NY RI MA OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC OK LA MS AL GA HI TX FL SOURCE The Cook Political Report 12/13/19 11 Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) has raised over $19 million Total receipts in 2020 governor races by state (in millions of dollars) AS OF MOST RECENT FILING PERIOD DE IN MO MT NH NC ND UT VT WA WV $19.3 $6.7 $6.9 $7.0 $4.5 $4.0 $2.7 $2.4 $1.9 $1.1 $1.5 $0.5 $0.7 $0.6 $1.0 $0.7 $1.0 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.5 Lenz (D) Cox (R) Culp (R) Murray (R) Myers (D) Feltes (D) Forest (R) Scott* (R) Inslee* (D) Carney* (D) Parson* (R) Cooney (D)Sununu* (R) Cooper* (D) Justice* (R)Salango (D) Holcomb* (R) Galloway (D)Gianforte (R) Burgum* (R) Peterson (D) Zuckerman (D) *Denotes incumbent Displays receipts for front-runners SOURCE Indiana Election Division, Missouri Ethics Commission, CERS Montana, North Carolina State Board of Elections, North Dakota Secretary of State, Utah Disclosures, Vermont Elections Divisions Campaign Finance, Washington Public Disclosure Commission, West Virginia Secretary of State.
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