POLS 585: International Security Spring 2012 Prof. Kyle Beardsley Office Hours: Thursdays 2:30-4:00 & by appointment
Overview This is one of two graduate courses on international conflict and security. It is not a prerequisite for the other course (POLS 512), nor does it assume that you have taken that course. It does assume that you have taken World Politics (POLS 510) or an equivalent course at another institution. While some in the field might make a distinction between the study of security studies (usually a normative focus with strong policy implications) and conflict processes or peace science (usually a positive focus with reliance on game theory and quantitative analysis), the division of topics between the two courses (512 and 585) is based more on instructor strengths than any meaningful divides. We will spend much of this course studying emerging research related to intrastate conflict, but will also touch on a number of other relevant topics to the subfield of international conflict and security.
There are three requirements for this course:
Class Participation (20%) The course will rely heavily on class discussion, so each student is expected to come to class with all the required reading completed. The recommended readings are exactly that, but note that serious students of international politics who do not do any of the recommended reading or related outside reading will be doing themselves a tremendous disservice in preparation for the final paper, comprehensive exams and research beyond.
Each week, a student will present on the readings from the week. The presenter should speak for 10-15 minutes on the overall context and contribution of the readings. There should be two components of the discussion. First, the presenters should relate the week’s readings to each other. How do they agree? How do they differ? How do they build on each other? Do some of the readings touch on completely different topics? Second, the presenters should discuss how these readings fit into the broader literature. Using the literature reviews in the assigned readings, what are the major pieces of the literature on which these pieces build? What are the major pieces of the literature that these readings call into question? Also, doing a search of the major political science journals and reading the abstracts, what are some of the important pieces of the literature that were either contemporaries of the assigned reading or came after? The purpose of this exercise is to gain experience in doing literature reviews and to introduce the class to major pieces of the literature that we do not have time to discuss in depth.
Short Response Papers (30% total) During the weeks in which the students do not present, they are required to write a 2-3 page (double spaced) critique of one of the readings for that week. The students should first identify the question being addressed and the core argument. They will then briefly give an overall assessment of the reading, in terms of its general strengths and weaknesses. The bulk of the paper will be devoted to providing recommendations to make the research stronger. What are the key shortcomings, and how might one address them? The exercise is meant to strengthen the student’s ability to not just poke holes in an argument but to be able to critically think about addressing the problems that arise. The students should try to avoid “low hanging fruit” such as mere recommendations for control variables and instead focus on bigger issues related to theoretical development and research design.
Research Paper (50%) At the end of the semester, students will turn in a research paper between 30 and 40 pages in length (double spaced, including the bibliography). The paper must address a theoretical question, make a contribution to the literature, provide a coherent argument, evaluate in depth an historical case and provide the sketch for a research design. On February 8, students will turn in an abstract of their paper topic and research question, including an overview of the research contribution. On March 21, students will turn in an annotated bibliography that includes the full citation and 1-2 sentences of summary of the works relevant to the research project. This will be approximately six pages in length. The final paper is due on May 9, by 5:00pm.
Schedule Most of the required readings are available on DiscoverE, EUCLID, Google Scholar or JSTOR. The book chapters and shorter book excerpts can be found on Reserves Direct through EUCLID.
1/18: Introduction to Intrastate Conflict
Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, “Greed and Grievance in Civil War,” Oxford Economic Papers 56 (2004): 563-595.
Stathis Kalyvas ad Laia Balcells, “International System and Technologies of Rebellion: How the End of the Cold War Shaped Internal Conflict,” American Political Science Review 104 (August 2010): 415-429.
Macartan Humphries and Jeremy M. Weinstein, “Who Fights? The Determinants of Participation in Civil War,” American Journal of Political Science 52 (April 2008), 436-455.
Recommended:
James D. Fearon and David P. Laitin, “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil Wars,” American Political Science Review 97 (February 2003): 75-90. Ted Robert Gurr, Why Men Rebel (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1970), 3-58.
1/25: Civil War Onset
Havard Hegre and Nicholas Sambanis, “Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (August 2006): 508-535. 2
Havard Hegre, Tanja Ellingsen, Scott Gates, and Nils Petter Gleditsch, “Towards a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816- 1992,” American Political Science Review 95 (March 2001): 33-48.
Barbara Walter, “Building Reputation: Why Governments Fight Some Separatists but Not Others,” American Journal of Political Science 50 (April 2006): 313-330.
Havard Hegre, Gudrun Ostby and Clionadh Raleigh, “Poverty and Civil War Events: A Disaggregated Study of Liberia,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (August 2009): 598-623.
Halvard Buhaug, “Climate Not to Blame for African Civil Wars,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107 (September 21, 2010): 16477-16482.
2/1: Ethnic Conflict
Lars-Erik Cederman, Halvard Buhaug and Jan Ketil Rød, “Ethno-Nationalist Dyads and Civil War,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (August 2009): 496-525.
Lars-Erik Cederman, Nils B. Weidmann and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, “Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War: A Global Comparison, American Political Science Review 105 (August 2011): 478-495.
James Habyarimana, Macartan Humphreys, Daniel N. Posner and Jeremy M. Weinstein, “Why Does Ethnic Diversity Undermine Public Goods Provision?” American Political Science Review 101 (November 2007): 709-725.
James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, “Explaining Interethnic Cooperation,” American Political Science Review 90 (December 1996): 715-735.
Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham, “Divide and Conquer or Divide and Concede: How do States Respond to Internally Divided Separatists?” American Political Science Review 105 (May 2011): 275-297.
Recommended:
David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild, “Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict,” International Security 21 (Fall 1996): 41-75. Halvard Buhaug, Lars-Erik Cederman and Jan Ketil Rød, “Disaggregating Ethno- Nationalist Civil Wars: A Dyadic Test of Exclusion Theory,” International Organization 62 (2008): 531-551. Donald L. Horowitz, Ethnic Groups in Conflict (Berkeley, CA: California University Press, 1985), 3-288; 443-559. Stuart J. Kaufman, Modern Hatreds: The Symbolic Politics of Ethnic War (Ithaca: Cornell, 2001). 3
Monica Duffy Toft, Geography and Ethnic Violence (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2003), pp. 1-44. Rui J. P. De Figueiredo and Barry R. Weingast, “The Rationality of Fear: Political Opportunism and Ethnic Conflict,” in Barbara F. Walter and Jack Snyder (eds.), Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention (New York: Columbia University Press, 1999): 261-302. Barry Posen, “The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict,” Survival vol. 35 no. 1 (1993): 27-47. V. P. Gagnon, Jr., “Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia,” International Security 19 (Winter 1994/95): 130-166.
2/8: Civil War Termination Abstract of paper topic due
Halvard Buhaug, Scott Gates and Päivi Lujala, “Geography, Rebel Capability, and the Duration of Civil Conflict,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (August 2009): 544-569.
David Cunningham, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and Idean Salehyan, “It Takes Two: A Dyadic Analysis of Civil War Duration and Outcome,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (August 2009): 570-597.
Thomas Chapman and Philip G. Roeder, “Partition as a Solution to Wars of Nationalism: The Importance of Institutions,” American Political Science Review 101 (November 2007): 677-692.
David E. Cunningham, “Veto Players and Civil War Duration,” American Journal of Political Science 50 (October 2006): 875-892.
James D. Fearon, “Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?” Journal of Peace Research 41 (May 2004): 275-301.
Recommended:
Nicholas Sambanis, “Partition as a Solution to Ethnic War: An Empirical Critique of the Theoretical Literature,” World Politics 52 (July 2000): 437-483. Patrick M. Regan, “Third-Party Intervention and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46 (February 2002): 55-73. Daniel Byman, “Forever Enemies? The Manipulation of Ethnic Identities to End Ethnic Wars,” Security Studies 9 (Spring 2000): 149-190.
2/15: Transnational Dynamics of Intrastate Conflict
4 Idean Salehyan and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, “Refugees and the Spread of Civil War,” International Organization 60 (Spring 2006): 335-366.
Lars-Erik Cederman, Luc Girardin and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, “Ethnonationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars,” World Politics 61 (July 2009): 403-37.
Halvard Buhaug and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, “Contagion or Confusion? Why Conflicts Cluster in Space,” International Studies Quarterly 52 (June 2008): 215- 233.
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Idean Salehyan and Kenneth Schultz, “Fighting at Home, Fighting Abroad: How Civil Wars Lead to International Disputes,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 52 (August 2008): 479-506.
Jacob Kathman, “Civil War Contagion and Neighboring Interventions,” International Studies Quarterly 54 (December 2010): 989-1012.
Recommended:
Idean Salehyan, Rebels without Borders (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2009). Navin A. Bapat, “Understanding State Sponsorship of Militant Groups,” British Journal of Political Science 42 (January 2012): 1-29. Idean Salehyan, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch and David E. Cunningham, “Explaining External Support for Insurgent Groups,” International Organization 65 (October 2011): 709-744. Kenneth Schultz, “The Enforcement Problem in Coercive Bargaining: Interstate Conflict over Rebel Support in Civil Wars,” International Organization 64(Spring 2010): 281-312. David R. Davis and Will H. Moore, “Ethnicity Matters: Transnational Ethnic Alliances and Foreign Policy Behavior,” International Studies Quarterly 41 (1997): 171- 184.
2/22: Resources and Intrastate Conflict
Christa N. Brunnshweiler and Erwin H. Bulte, “Natural Resources and Violent Conflict: Resource Abundance, Dependence, and the Onset of Civil Wars,” Oxford Economic Papers 61 (October 2009): 651-674.
Paivi Lujala, “Deadly Combat over Natural Resources: Gems, Petroleum, Drugs, and the Severity of Armed Civil Conflict,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (February 2009): 50-71.
Hanna Fjelde, “Buying Peace? Oil Wealth, Corruption and Civil War, 1985-99,” Journal of Peace Research 46 (March 2009): 199-218. 5
Jeremy Weinstein, “Resources and the Information Problem in Rebel Recruitment,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (August 2005): 598-624.
Kyle Beardsley and Brian McQuinn, “Rebel Groups as Predatory Organizations: The Political Effects of the 2004 Tsunami in Indonesia and Sri Lanka,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (August 2009): 624-645.
2/29: The Use of Violence
Jason Lyall, “Does Indiscriminant Violence Incite Insurgent Attacks? Evidence from Chechnya,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (June 2009), 331-362.
Benjamin Valentino, Paul Huth, and Dylan Balch-Lindsey, “’Draining the Sea’: Mass Killing and Guerrilla Warfare,” International Organization (April 2004): 375- 407.
Macartan Humphreys and Jeremy M. Weinstein, “Handling and Manhandling Civilians in Civil War,” American Journal of Political Science 100 (August 2006): 429- 447.
Stathis Kalyvas, The Logic of Violence in Civil War (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006). pp. 146-209.
Nils B. Weidmann, “Violence ‘from above’ or ‘from below’? The Role of Ethnicity in Bosnia’s Civil War,” The Journal of Politics 73 (October 2011): 1178-1190.
Recommended:
Jeremy M. Weinstein, Inside Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
3/7: Terrorism
Ethan Bueno de Mesquita, “Conciliation, Counterterrorism, and Patterns of Terrorist Violence,” International Organization 59 (2005): 145-176.
Robert Pape, “The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism,” American Political Science Review 97 (August 2003): 343-361.
Andrew H. Kydd and Barbara Walter, “Sabotaging the Peace: The Politics of Extremist Violence,” International Organization 56 (2002): 263-296.
Eric Neumayer and Thomas Plümper, “International Terrorism and the Clash of Civilizations,” British Journal of Political Science 39 (October 2009): 711-734. 6
Erica Chenoweth, “Democratic Competition and Terrorist Activity,” Journal of Politics 72 (January 2010): 16-30.
Recommended:
Sara Jackson Wade and Dan Reiter, “Does Democracy Matter? Regime Type and Suicide Terrorism,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (April 2007): 329-348. Quan Li, “Does Democracy Promote or Reduce Transnational Terrorist Incidents?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (April 2005): 278-297. Robert Powell, “Defending against Terrorist Attacks with Limited Resources,” American Political Science Review 101 (August 2007): 527-542. Quan Li and Drew Schaub, “Economic Globalization and Transnational Terrorism: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (April 2004): 230-258. Todd Sandler, John T. Tschirhart and Jon Cauley, “A Theoretical Analysis of Transnational Terrorism,” American Political Science Review 77 (March 1983): 36-54.
3/21: Peacekeeping Annotated bibliography for paper due
Virginia Page Fortna, “Does Peacekeeping Keep Peace? International Intervention and the Duration of Peace after Civil War,” International Studies Quarterly 48 (June 2004): 269-292.
Michael W. Doyle and Nicholas Sambanis, “International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis,” American Political Science Review 94 (December 2000): 779-801.
Michael J. Greig and Paul F. Diehl, “The Peacekeeping-Peacemaking Dilemma,” International Studies Quarterly 49 (December 2005): 621-645.
Roland Paris, “Peacebuilding and the Limits of Liberal Internationalism,” International Security 22 (Autumn 1997): 54-89.
Kyle Beardsley, “Peacekeeping and the Contagion of Armed Conflict,” Journal of Politics 73 (October 2011): 1051-1064.
Recommended:
Virginia Page Fortna, Does Peacekeeping Work? (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008). Dan Lindley, Promoting Peace with Information (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007). 7 Roland Paris, At War’s End: Building Peace after Civil Conflict (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004). Michael Gilligan and Ernest J. Sergenti, “Do UN Interventions Cause Peace? Using Matching to Improve Causal Inference,” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 3 (2008): 89-122. Mark J. Mullenbach, “Deciding to Keep Peace: An Analysis of International Influences on the Establishment of Third-Party Peacekeeping Missions,” International Studies Quarterly 49 (September 2005): 529-555. Michael Gilligan and Stephen John Stedman, “Where Do the Peacekeepers Go?” International Studies Review 5 (December 2003): 37-54.
3/28: Mediation
Kyle Beardsley, “Agreement without Peace?” American Journal of Political Science 52 (2008): 723-740
Scott S. Gartner and Jacob Bercovitch, “Overcoming Obstacles to Peace: The Contribution of Mediation to Short-Lived Conflict Settlements," International Studies Quarterly 50 (2006): 819-840.
Andrew Kydd, “Which Side Are You On? Bias, Credibility, and Mediation,” American Journal of Political Science 47 (October 2003): 597-611.
Andrew H. Kydd, “When Can Mediators Build Trust?” American Political Science Review 100 (2006): 449-462.
Mark Fey and Kristopher W. Ramsay, “When is Shuttle Diplomacy worth the Commute? Information Sharing through Mediation,” World Politics 62 (October 2010: 529- 560.
Recommended:
Robert Rauchhaus, “Asymmetric Information, Mediation and Conflict Management,” World Politics 58 (2006): 207-241. Alastair Smith and Allan Stam, “Mediation and Peacekeeping in a Random Walk Model of Civil and Interstate War,” International Studies Review 5 (December 2003): 115-135. J. Michael Greig, “Moments of Opportunity” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45 (December 2001): 691-718. Sara McLaughlin Mitchell, “A Kantian System? Democracy and Third-Party Conflict Resolution,” American Journal of Political Science 46 (October 2002): 749-759 Lesley G. Terris and Zeev Maoz, “Rational Mediation: A Theory and a Test,” Journal of Peace Research 42 (2005): 563-583. Kyle Beardsley, David Quinn, Bidisha Biswas and Jonathan Wilkenfeld, “Mediation Style and Crisis Outcomes,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 50 (2006): 58-86.
8 Patrick Regan and Allan C. Stam, “In the Nick of Time: Conflict Management, Mediation Timing, and the Duration of Interstate Disputes,” International Studies Quarterly 44 (2000): 239-260. William J. Dixon, “Third-Party Techniques for Preventing Conflict Escalation and Promoting Peaceful Settlement,” International Organization 50 (Autumn 1996): 653-81) J. Michael Greig, “Stepping into the Fray: When Do Mediators Mediate?” American Journal of Political Science 49 (2005): 249-266.
4/4: Class is cancelled, while Professor Beardsley attends the ISA conference.
4/11: Proliferation
Matthew Kroenig, “Exporting the Bomb: Why States Provide Sensitive Nuclear Assistance,” American Political Science Review 103 (2009): 113-133.
Erik Garzke and Dong-Joon Jo, “Bargaining, Nuclear Proliferation, and Interstate Disputes,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (April 2009): 209-233.
Kyle Beardsley and Victor Asal, “Winning with the Bomb,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (April 2009): 278-301.
Michael Horowitz, “The Spread of Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict: Does Experience Matter?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53 (April 2009): 234-257.
Singh, Sonali and Christopher Way, “The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48 (2004): 859-885.
Recommended:
Robert Jervis, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1989). Etel Solingen, Nuclear Logics (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2007). Dong-Joon Jo and Erik Gartzke, “Determinants of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation: A Quantitative Model” Journal of Conflict Resolution 51 (2007): 167-194. Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and William H. Riker, “An Assessment of the Merits of Selective Nuclear Proliferation,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 25 (1982):283- 306. Scott D. Sagan, “Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb,” International Security 21 (Winter 1996/97): 54-86. Asal, Victor and Kyle Beardsley, “Proliferation and International Crisis Behavior,” Journal of Peace Research 44 (2007): 139-156. Geller, Daniel S, “Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Crisis Escalation,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 34 (1990): 291-310. Brito, Dagobert L. and Michael D. Intrilligator, “Proliferation and the Probability of War: A Cardinality Theorem,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (1996):206-214. 9 Stephen L. Quackenbush, “National Missile Defense and Deterrence,” Political Research Quarterly 59 (December 2006): 533-541.
4/18: The Capitalist Peace
Erik Gartzke, “The Capitalist Peace,” American Journal of Political Science 51 (January 2007): 166-191.
Seung-Whan Choi, “Re-Evaluating Capitalist and Democratic Peace Models,” International Studies Quarterly 55 (September 2011): 759-769.
Erik Gartzke, Quan Li, and Charles Boehmer, “Investing in the Peace: Economic Interdependence and International Conflict,” International Organization 55 (Spring 2001): 391-438.
Michael Mousseau, “The Social Market Roots of Democratic Peace,” International Security 33 (April 2009): 52-86.
John R. Oneal, “Assessing the Liberal Peace with Alternative Specifications: Trade Still Reduces Conflict,” Journal of Peace Research 36 (July 2007): 423-442.
James D. Morrow, “How Could Trade Affect Conflict,” Journal of Peace Research 36 (July 1999): 481-489.
Recommended:
David Bearce, “Grasping the Commercial Institutional Peace,” International Studies Quarterly 47 (September 2003): 347-370. Katherine Barbieri and Gerald Schneider, “Globalization and Peace: Assessing New Directions in the Study of Trade and Conflict,” Journal of Peace Research 36 (July 1999): 387-404. Katherine Barbieri and Jack S. Levy, “Sleeping with the Enemy: The Impact of War on Trade,” Journal of Peace Research 36 (July 1999): 463-479. Patrick J. McDonald, “The Purse Strings of Peace,” American Journal of Political Science 51 (July 2007): 569-582. Quan Li and Erik Gartzke, “Measure for Measure: Concept Operationalization and the Trade Interdependence-Conflict Debate,” Journal of Peace Research 40 (2003) 553-571.
4/25: Peace Agreements & Legal Dispute Resolution
Paul K. Huth, Sarah E. Croco and Benjamin J. Appel, “Does International Law Promote the Peaceful Settlement of International Disputes? Evidence from the Study of Territorial Conflicts since 1945,” American Political Science Review 105 (May 2011): 415-436. 10
Michaela Mattes and Burcu Savun, “Information, Agreement Design, and the Durability of Civil War Settlements,” American Journal of Political Science 54 (April 2010): 511-524.
Todd L. Allee and Paul K. Huth, “Legitimizing Dispute Settlement: International Legal Rulings as Domestic Political Cover," American Political Science Review 100 (2006): 219-234.
Sara McLaughlin Mitchell and Paul R. Hensel, “International Institutions and Compliance with Agreements,” American Journal of Political Science 51 (October 2007): 721-737.
Stephen E. Gent and Megan Shannon, “The Effectiveness of International Arbitration and Adjudication; Getting into Bind,” Journal of Politics 72 (April 2010): 366-381.
Recommended:
Nigel Lo, Barry Hashimoto and Dan Reiter, “Ensuring Peace: Foreign-Imposed Regime Change and Postwar Peace Duration, 1914-2001,” International Organization 62 (Fall 2008): 717-736. Michaela Mattes and Burcu Savun, “Fostering Peace after Civil War: Commitment Problems and Agreement Design,” International Studies Quarterly 53 (September 2009): 737-760. Virginia Page Fortna, Peace Time (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004). pp. 1-38; 114-172. Suzanne Werner and Amy Yuen, “Making and Keeping Peace,” International Organization (2005): 261-292. Suzanne Werner, “The Precarious Nature of Peace: Resolving the Issues, Enforcing the Settlement, and Renegotiating the Terms,” American Journal of Political Science 43 (July 1999): 912-934.
5/9: Final Papers due by 5:00.
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