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Minsk II a Fragile Ceasefire
Briefing 16 July 2015 Ukraine: Follow-up of Minsk II A fragile ceasefire SUMMARY Four months after leaders from France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia reached a 13-point 'Package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements' ('Minsk II') on 12 February 2015, the ceasefire is crumbling. The pressure on Kyiv to contribute to a de-escalation and comply with Minsk II continues to grow. While Moscow still denies accusations that there are Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly admitted in March 2015 to having invaded Crimea. There is mounting evidence that Moscow continues to play an active military role in eastern Ukraine. The multidimensional conflict is eroding the country's stability on all fronts. While the situation on both the military and the economic front is acute, the country is under pressure to conduct wide-reaching reforms to meet its international obligations. In addition, Russia is challenging Ukraine's identity as a sovereign nation state with a wide range of disinformation tools. Against this backdrop, the international community and the EU are under increasing pressure to react. In the following pages, the current status of the Minsk II agreement is assessed and other recent key developments in Ukraine and beyond examined. This briefing brings up to date that of 16 March 2015, 'Ukraine after Minsk II: the next level – Hybrid responses to hybrid threats?'. In this briefing: • Minsk II – still standing on the ground? • Security-related implications of the crisis • Russian disinformation -
REGLUGERÐ Um Breyting Á Reglugerð Um Þvingunaraðgerðir Varðandi Úkraínu Nr
Nr. 745 9. júlí 2015 REGLUGERÐ um breyting á reglugerð um þvingunaraðgerðir varðandi Úkraínu nr. 281/2014, ásamt síðari breytingum. 1. gr. Þvingunaraðgerðir. Á eftir 33. tölul. 1. mgr. 2. gr. reglugerðar um þvingunaraðgerðir varðandi Úkraínu nr. 281/2014, ásamt síðari breytingum, komi eftirfarandi töluliðir sem hljóði svo: 34) Ákvörðun ráðsins 2014/933/SSUÖ frá 18. desember 2014 um breytingu á ákvörðun 2014/386/SSUÖ um þvingunaraðgerðir vegna ólöglegrar innlimunar Kríms og Sevastopol. 35) Ákvörðun ráðsins (SSUÖ) 2015/959 frá 19. júní 2015 um breytingu á ákvörðun 2014/386/SSUÖ um þvingunaraðgerðir vegna ólöglegrar innlimunar Kríms og Sevastopol. 36) Reglugerð ráðsins (ESB) nr. 1351/2014 frá 18. desember 2014 um breytingu á reglugerð (ESB) nr. 692/2014 um þvingunaraðgerðir vegna ólöglegrar innlimunar Kríms og Sevastopol. 37) Ákvörðun ráðsins 2014/801/SSUÖ frá 17. nóvember 2014 um breytingu á ákvörðun 2015/145/SSUÖ um þvingunaraðgerðir með tilliti til aðgerða sem grafa undan eða ógna landamærahelgi, fullveldi og sjálfstæði Úkraínu. 38) Ákvörðun ráðsins 2014/855/SSUÖ frá 28. nóvember 2014 um breytingu á ákvörðun 2015/145/SSUÖ um þvingunaraðgerðir með tilliti til aðgerða sem grafa undan eða ógna landamærahelgi, fullveldi og sjálfstæði Úkraínu. 39) Ákvörðun ráðsins (SSUÖ) 2015/241 frá 9. febrúar 2015 um breytingu á ákvörðun 2015/145/SSUÖ um þvingunaraðgerðir með tilliti til aðgerða sem grafa undan eða ógna landamærahelgi, fullveldi og sjálfstæði Úkraínu. 40) Ákvörðun ráðsins (SSUÖ) 2015/432 frá 13. mars 2015 um breytingu á ákvörðun 2015/145/SSUÖ um þvingunaraðgerðir með tilliti til aðgerða sem grafa undan eða ógna landamærahelgi, fullveldi og sjálfstæði Úkraínu. 41) Framkvæmdarreglugerð ráðsins (ESB) nr. -
Russia's Hybrid Warfare
Research Paper Research Division – NATO Defense College, Rome – No. 105 – November 2014 Russia’s Hybrid Warfare Waging War below the Radar of Traditional Collective Defence by H. Reisinger and A. Golts1 “You can’t modernize a large country with a small war” Karl Schlögel The Research Division (RD) of the NATO De- fense College provides NATO’s senior leaders with “Ukraine is not even a state!” Putin reportedly advised former US President sound and timely analyses and recommendations on current issues of particular concern for the Al- George W. Bush during the 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest. In 2014 this liance. Papers produced by the Research Division perception became reality. Russian behaviour during the current Ukraine convey NATO’s positions to the wider audience of the international strategic community and con- crisis was based on the traditional Russian idea of a “sphere of influence” and tribute to strengthening the Transatlantic Link. a special responsibility or, stated more bluntly, the “right to interfere” with The RD’s civil and military researchers come from countries in its “near abroad”. This perspective is also implied by the equally a variety of disciplines and interests covering a 2 broad spectrum of security-related issues. They misleading term “post-Soviet space.” The successor states of the Soviet conduct research on topics which are of interest to Union are sovereign countries that have developed differently and therefore the political and military decision-making bodies of the Alliance and its member states. no longer have much in common. Some of them are members of the European Union and NATO, while others are desperately trying to achieve The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the this goal. -
Ukraine's Foreign Affairs
No. 2 THE UKRAINIAN WEEKLY SUNDAY, JANUARY 12, 2003 5 2002: THE YEAR IN REVIEW came in a letter to the National Remembrance Institute, and Germany, while meeting in St. Petersburg, signed a Ukraine’s foreign affairs: addressed to a conference being held on the matter. statement of understanding and cooperation on the con- Poland and Ukraine also worked to continue to tinued use of Ukraine’s pipeline for transporting Russian strengthen economic ties in 2002. Poland’s recently natural gas to Germany. pluses and minuses elected Prime Minister Leszek Miller made his first visit The document envisaged European participation in a to Kyiv on February 4 to meet with his Ukrainian coun- multinational consortium that would guarantee the gas kraine’s foreign affairs this past year, like a terpart, Anatolii Kinakh, as well as with President supply. The signing came a day after Presidents Kuchma potluck dinner, consisted of good and bad Kuchma. Talks centered on the Odesa-Brody-Gdansk oil and Putin signed a separate declaration of strategic coop- moments. At the top of a very uneven year in for- pipeline. Prime Minister Miller expressed his full sup- eration in the natural gas sector, which would give eign relations was the Kolchuha affair, which increasing- port for the plan and Poland’s intention to find business Russia joint management and developmental influence ly overshadowed other developments as the year wore U partners to complete the pipeline’s Polish section over the Ukrainian tube in return for its agreement to on. However, even with accusations of President Leonid through to the Baltic seaport city of Gdansk. -
Ukraine Resolution on Mariupol.Pdf (23.08
DAV15155 S.L.C. 114TH CONGRESS 1ST SESSION S. RES. ll Expressing the sense of the Senate regarding the January 24, 2015, attacks carried out by Russian-backed rebels on the civilian population in Mariupol, Ukraine, and the provision of lethal and non-lethal military assistance to Ukraine. IN THE SENATE OF THE UNITED STATES llllllllll Mr. JOHNSON (for himself and Mrs. SHAHEEN) submitted the following resolution; which was referred to the Committee on llllllllll RESOLUTION Expressing the sense of the Senate regarding the January 24, 2015, attacks carried out by Russian-backed rebels on the civilian population in Mariupol, Ukraine, and the provision of lethal and non-lethal military assistance to Ukraine. Whereas Russian-backed rebels continue to expand their cam- paign in Ukraine, which has already claimed more than 5,000 lives and generated an estimated 1,500,000 refu- gees and internally displaced persons; Whereas, on January 23, 2015, Russian rebels pulled out of peace talks with Western leaders; DAV15155 S.L.C. 2 Whereas, on January 24, 2015, the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol received rocket fire from territory in the Donetsk region controlled by rebels; Whereas, on January 24, 2015, Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of the Russian-backed rebel Donetsk People’s Re- public, publicly announced that his troops had launched an offensive against Mariupol; Whereas Mariupol is strategically located on the Sea of Azov and is a sea link between Russian-occupied Crimea and Russia, and could be used to form part of a land bridge between Crimea and -
List of Persons and Entities Under EU Restrictive Measures Over the Territorial Integrity of Ukraine
dhdsh PRESS Council of the European Union EN List of persons and entities under EU restrictive measures over the territorial integrity of Ukraine List of Persons Name Identifying Reasons Date of listing information 1. Sergey Valeryevich DOB: 26.11.1972. Aksyonov was elected 'Prime Minister of Crimea' in the Crimean 17.3.2014 AKSYONOV, Verkhovna Rada on 27 February 2014 in the presence of pro-Russian POB: Beltsy (Bălţi), gunmen. His 'election' was decreed unconstitutional by the acting Sergei Valerievich now Republic of Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov on 1 March 2014. He actively AKSENOV (Сергей Moldova lobbied for the 'referendum' of 16 March 2014 and was one of the co- Валерьевич signatories of the ’treaty on Crimea´s accession to the Russian AKCëHOB), Federation’ of 18 March 2014. On 9 April 2014 he was appointed acting Serhiy Valeriyovych ‘Head’ of the so-called ‘Republic of Crimea’ by President Putin. On 9 AKSYONOV (Сергiй October 2014, he was formally ‘elected’ 'Head' of the so-called 'Republic Валерiйович Аксьонов) of Crimea'. Aksyonov subsequently decreed that the offices of ‘Head’ and ‘Prime Minister’ be combined. Member of the Russia State Council. 1/83 dhdsh PRESS Council of the European Union EN Name Identifying Reasons Date of listing information 2. Rustam Ilmirovich DOB: 15.8.1976 As former Deputy Minister of Crimea, Temirgaliev played a relevant role 17.3.2014 TEMIRGALIEV in the decisions taken by the ‘Supreme Council’ concerning the POB: Ulan-Ude, ‘referendum’ of 16 March 2014 against the territorial integrity of Ukraine. (Рустам Ильмирович Buryat ASSR He lobbied actively for the integration of Crimea into the Russian Темиргалиев) (Russian SFSR) Federation. -
International Crimes in Crimea
International Crimes in Crimea: An Assessment of Two and a Half Years of Russian Occupation SEPTEMBER 2016 Contents I. Introduction 6 A. Executive summary 6 B. The authors 7 C. Sources of information and methodology of documentation 7 II. Factual Background 8 A. A brief history of the Crimean Peninsula 8 B. Euromaidan 12 C. The invasion of Crimea 15 D. Two and a half years of occupation and the war in Donbas 23 III. Jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court 27 IV. Contextual elements of international crimes 28 A. War crimes 28 B. Crimes against humanity 34 V. Willful killing, murder and enforced disappearances 38 A. Overview 38 B. The law 38 C. Summary of the evidence 39 D. Documented cases 41 E. Analysis 45 F. Conclusion 45 VI. Torture and other forms of inhuman treatment 46 A. Overview 46 B. The law 46 C. Summary of the evidence 47 D. Documented cases of torture and other forms of inhuman treatment 50 E. Analysis 59 F. Conclusion 59 VII. Illegal detention 60 A. Overview 60 B. The law 60 C. Summary of the evidence 62 D. Documented cases of illegal detention 66 E. Analysis 87 F. Conclusion 87 VIII. Forced displacement 88 A. Overview 88 B. The law 88 C. Summary of evidence 90 D. Analysis 93 E. Conclusion 93 IX. Crimes against public, private and cultural property 94 A. Overview 94 B. The law 94 C. Summary of evidence 96 D. Documented cases 99 E. Analysis 110 F. Conclusion 110 X. Persecution and collective punishment 111 A. Overview 111 B. -
Citizens and the State in the Government-Controlled Territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk Regions Problems, Challenges and Visions of the Future
Citizens and the state in the government-controlled territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions Problems, challenges and visions of the future Funded by: This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union through International Alert. The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of International Alert and UCIPR and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. Layout: Nick Wilmot Creative Front cover image: A mother and daughter living in temporary accommodation for those displaced by the violence in Donetsk, 2014. © Andrew McConnell/Panos © International Alert/Ukrainian Center for Independent Political Research 2017 Citizens and the state in the government-controlled territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions Problems, challenges and visions of the future October 2017 2 CONTENTS 1. Introduction 3 2. Methodology 6 3. Findings 7 4. Statements from interviewees 22 5. Conclusions and recommendations 30 Citizens and the state in the government-controlled territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions 3 1. INTRODUCTION The demarcation line (the line of contact)1 and the ‘grey zone’ between the government-controlled2 and uncontrolled territories3 of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions separates the parties to the conflict in the east of Ukraine. The areas controlled by the Ukrainian authorities and bordering the ‘grey zone’ are very politically sensitive, highly militarised, and fall under a special governance regime that is different from the rest of the country. In the absence of a comprehensive political settlement and amid uncertain prospects, it is unclear how long this situation will remain. It is highly likely that over the next few years, Ukrainians in areas adjacent to the contact line will live under very particular and unusual governance structures, and in varying degrees of danger. -
Spinning Russia's 21St Century Wars
Research Article This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative The RUSI Journal Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-NoDerivatives License (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Spinning Russia’s 21st Century Wars Zakhar Prilepin and his ‘Literary Spetsnaz’ Julie Fedor In this article, Julie Fedor examines contemporary Russian militarism through an introduction to one of its most high-profile representatives, the novelist, Chechen war veteran and media personality Zakhar Prilepin. She focuses on Prilepin’s commentary on war and Russian identity, locating his ideas within a broader strand of Russian neo-imperialism. he Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 brand of militarism that has come to pervade the and the war in the Donbas which began Russian media landscape, Prilepin warrants our T that same year have been accompanied by attention. Studying his career and output can help a remarkable drive to mobilise cultural production to illuminate the context and underpinnings of the in Russia in support of a new brand of state- domestic support for the official military doctrine sponsored militarism. Using a variety of media and policy that is more commonly the subject of platforms and reaching mass popular audiences, scholarship on Russian military and security affairs. a range of cultural celebrities – actors, writers, This article focuses on Prilepin’s commentary rock stars, tabloid war correspondents – have on the nature of war and Russian identity, locating played a key role in framing and shaping domestic his ideas within a broader strand of Russian perceptions of Russia’s 21st Century wars. Despite neo-imperialism in which war is claimed as a vital their prominence in Russian media space, their source of belonging, power and dignity.1 It shows activities have received surprisingly little scholarly how the notion of a special Russian relationship attention to date. -
Ukraine After Minsk II: the Next Level Hybrid Responses to Hybrid Threats?
Briefing 16 March 2015 Ukraine after Minsk II: the next level Hybrid responses to hybrid threats? SUMMARY One month after leaders from France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia reached a 13‐point peace agreement in Minsk on 12 February 2015 – Minsk II, a follow‐up to the September 2014 Minsk Protocol – the ceasefire is shaky, although it has at least reduced the number of deaths in combat, and the pressure on the international community to act continues. While Russia denies accusations that it has been sending troops and weapons to support separatists in Ukraine's east, the undeclared 'hybrid war' is developing on all fronts. In the face of a shaky ceasefire and Ukraine's crumbling economy, the EU, the US and major international actors are discussing possible political, military, and economic responses to the deteriorating crisis. At the same time, EU Member States and NATO are stepping up efforts to counter Russia's 'information warfare'. The on‐going crisis in Ukraine erupted after former President Viktor Yanukovych refused to sign an Association Agreement with the EU in November 2013 and sought closer ties to Russia. Russia's active role in the eastern Ukraine crisis has exposed divides in the EU and the international community on how to react to hybrid threats. It comes at a time when the effectiveness of the EU's Neighbourhood Policy, including the Eastern Partnership, is being questioned. This briefing is a follow‐up to the 12 February 2015 briefing 'Minsk peace agreement: still to be consolidated on the ground'. In this briefing: Minsk -
The Kremlin's Irregular Army: Ukrainian Separatist Order of Battle
THE KREMLIN’S IRREGULARY ARMY: UKRAINIAN SEPARATIST ORDER OF BATTLE | FRANKLIN HOLCOMB | AUGUST 2017 Franklin Holcomb September 2017 RUSSIA AND UKRAINE SECURITY REPORT 3 THE KREMLIN’S IRREGULAR ARMY: UKRAINIAN SEPARATIST ORDER OF BATTLE WWW.UNDERSTANDINGWAR.ORG 1 Cover: A Pro-Russian separatist sits at his position at Savur-Mohyla, a hill east of the city of Donetsk, August 28, 2014. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov. Reproduced with permission. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing or from the publisher. ©2017 by the Institute for the Study of War. Published in 2017 in the United States of America by the Instittue for the Study of War. 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 | Washington, DC 20036 understandingwar.org 2 Franklin Holcomb The Kremlin’s Irregular Army: Ukrainian Separatist Order of Battle ABOUT THE AUTHOR Franklin Holcomb is a Russia and Ukraine Research Analyst at the Institute for the Study of War where he focuses on the war in Ukraine, Ukrainian politics, and Russian foreign policy in Eastern Europe. His current research focuses on studying the development of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Russian-backed separatist formations operating in Eastern Ukraine, as well as analyzing Russian political and military activity in Moldova, the Baltic, and the Balkans. Mr. Holcomb is the author of “The Order of Battle of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: A Key Component in European Security,” “Moldova Update: Kremlin Will Likely Seek to Realign Chisinau”, “Ukraine Update: Russia’s Aggressive Subversion of Ukraine,” as well as ISW’s other monthly updates on the political and military situation in Ukraine. -
Where-The-East-Meets-The-West-1.Pdf
ICIT Contributor Series Where the East Meets the West: How Western Internet and Modern Communications Technology Helped Soviet-style Propaganda in Donbass October 2018 By: Ms Jamila Mammadova, Research Assistant at the Henry Jackson Society A publication is supported by the Institute’s CCIOS initiative: 1 The ICIT Contributor Series publishes original content from national security and cybersecurity contributors around the world in support of ICIT’s mission. The views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent that of the Institute or its Fellows, members, donors or other contributors. The author(s) have confirmed to ICIT the originality of this body of work and have provided all citations where appropriate. Copyright © 2018 Institute for Critical Infrastructure Technology 2 Where the East Meets the West: How Western Internet and Modern Communications Technology Helped Soviet-style Propaganda in Donbass “We must spread our priciples, not with words but with deeds, for this is the most popular, the most potent, and the most irresistible form of propaganda”1 - Mikhail Bakunin (1870) Perhaps nowhere has information warfare been as pronounced and aggressive in the last couple of years as in Ukraine. Since 2014, the Ukrainian government in Kyiv has been battling against separatists in Donbass on both the military and informational fronts. There should be no surprise therefore, that the country has turned into a “cyber safe haven”, with the ongoing political, economic and military crises providing little hope that Ukraine will climb down in the world's top cyber crime list in the foreseeable future.2 The separatists have not only managed to disrupt the central government's infrastructure and its presence in the digital space.