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Hydrometeorological Analysis of Tropical Storm Hermine and Central Texas Flash Flooding, September 2010

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Hydrometeorological Analysis of Tropical Storm Hermine and Central Texas Flash Flooding, September 2010 DECEMBER 2015 F U R L E T A L . 2311 Hydrometeorological Analysis of Tropical Storm Hermine and Central Texas Flash Flooding, September 2010 CHAD FURL,HATIM O. SHARIF,ALMOUTAZ EL HASSAN, AND NEWFEL MAZARI Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas DANIEL BURTCH AND GRETCHEN L. MULLENDORE Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, North Dakota (Manuscript received 23 July 2014, in final form 9 July 2015) ABSTRACT Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with Tropical Storm Hermine occurred on 7–8 September 2010 across central Texas, resulting in several flood-related fatalities and extensive property damage. The largest rainfall totals were received near Austin, Texas, and immediately north, with 24-h accumulations at several locations reaching a 500-yr recurrence interval. Among the most heavily impacted drainage basins was the 2 Bull Creek watershed (58 km2) in Austin, where peak flows exceeded 500 m3 s 1. Storm cells were trained over the small watershed for approximately 6 h because of the combination of a quasi-stationary synoptic feature slowing the storm, orographic enhancement from the Balcones Escarpment, and moist air masses from the Gulf of Mexico sustaining the storm. Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations with and without the Balcones Escarpment terrain indicate that orographic enhancement affected rainfall. The basin 2 received nearly 300 mm of precipitation, with maximum sustained intensities of 50 mm h 1. The Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model was used to simulate streamflow from the event and to analyze the flood hydrology. Model simulations indicate that the spatial organization of the storm during intense rainfall periods coupled with surface conditions and characteristics mediate stream response. 1. Introduction storm near D’Hanis (560 mm in 2 h 45 min), and the 1978 event near Bluff (790 mm in 24 h; Caran and Baker 1986; In central Texas, the unique combination of flood- Caracena and Fritsch 1983). Numerous events over the prone physiography and susceptibility to extreme mete- past century in FFA have exceeded 24-h accumulations of orological events has produced some of the largest rainfall 750 mm (Asquith and Slade 1995). events and flood magnitudes in the United States and the While FFA is prone to short-lived intense convective world (Smith et al. 2000; Baker 1975). Moreover, Texas outbreaks in the absence of tropical disturbances, many consistently leads the nation in flash flood–related deaths, of the largest events are of tropical origin. These storms the majority of which occur across central Texas in an are characterized by easterly waves of air masses con- area dubbed Flash Flood Alley (FFA; Zahran et al. 2008; taining enormous moisture amounts from passage over Sharif et al. 2012). FFA is oriented from north to south warm seas (Nielsen-Gammon et al. 2005). If the moist across the central portion of the state, extending approx- air masses are able to protrude inland far enough, they imately from San Antonio to Dallas, Texas (TX). FFA are met by the Balcones Escarpment, which is thought to holds several world-record rainfall rates on time scales less serve as a barrier (Caran and Baker 1986). Orographic than 24 h (Slade and Patton 2003). Notable events include barriers act to force an air mass upward. If the upward the 1921 storm near Thrall (965 mm in 24 h), the 1935 lift forces the air mass to cool down enough, water vapor condenses to produce clouds and precipitation. Severe flash flood events have been known to occur in areas of Corresponding author address: Chad Furl, Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Texas at San Antonio, 1 UTSA orographically enhanced rainfall (Lin et al. 2001). Circle, San Antonio, TX 78249. Once precipitation falls to the surface, the physio- E-mail: [email protected] graphic features of the landscape control hydrologic DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0146.1 Ó 2015 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/30/21 03:35 PM UTC 2312 JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY VOLUME 16 response. The Balcones Escarpment separates the lime- simulation along with the Gridded Surface Subsurface stone terrain of the Edwards Plateau from the gently Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) model (Downer and sloping clay and sand terrain of the Blackland Prairies and Ogden 2006) for hydrologic analysis. Coastal Plain. Landscape features augmenting stream response along the Edwards Plateau and Balcones 2. Storm description Escarpment include shallow stony soils underlain by bedrock, steep terrain, high rill densities on hillslopes, Features of the storm that produced flooding across and sparse scrubby vegetation. At the bottom of the the Bull Creek watershed are examined through analysis escarpment, clay soils permit little infiltration when of synoptic- and mesoscale features leading to and saturated (Patton and Baker 1976). In addition to en- evolving during the event. Hermine began as a depression vironmental factors, the region has experienced size- south of Mexico’s southern Pacific coast. The depression able urbanization over the last several decades, which moved northward over Mexico, becoming a remnant low can exacerbate the flood potential through the increase as it crossed land. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, deep of the impervious areas. convection formed and thunderstorm activity became On 7–8 September 2010, persistent, heavy rainbands organized with the formation of cyclonic bands. As the associated with Tropical Storm Hermine produced one storm moved away from land, it gained further organi- of the heaviest rain events in nearly 30 years for Travis zation and became a tropical storm at approximately and Williamson Counties (central Texas). While the 0600 UTC 6 September. Deep convection continued to tropical storm–associated rainfall showed similarities to develop near the storm’s center throughout the day as it other extreme events in the region, it was different from trekked across the Gulf of Mexico at an average speed of 2 most floods associated with dissipating tropical cyclones 12 knots (kt; 1 kt 5 0.51 m s 1; Avila 2010). in that heavy rains developed well away from the rem- Hermine made landfall at around 0200 UTC 7 Sep- nant center. Predecessor rain events developing on the tember, 40 km south of Brownsville, TX, along the poleward side of recurving tropical cyclones have received northeastern coast of Mexico. A minimum pressure of 2 recent attention (e.g., Schumacher 2011; Galarneau et al. 989 mb was sustained here with peak winds of 110 km h 1. 2010); however, rainfall from Hermine developed well Hermine tracked to the north-northwest across Texas, behind the center. The 24-h rainfall totals of 250–400 mm remaining a tropical storm for 16 h after making landfall. resulted in a 500-yr event at several locations along the At around 0000 UTC 8 September, the storm was Balcones Escarpment. Flash flooding occurred across downgraded to a tropical depression. The system con- numerous area watersheds, with unit runoff values near- tinued north and northeast through Oklahoma before ing the United States envelope curve at the North Fork becoming a remnant low and dissipating over Kansas 2 2 San Gabriel River (52 m3 s 1 km 2) north of Austin, TX (Avila 2010). Figure 1a displays the storm’s progression (Winters 2012). Among the most heavily impacted wa- and track (NOAA 2010). tersheds included the semiurbanized Bull Creek catch- At 1200 UTC 7 September, Hermine was located in ment (58 km2) in Austin. During the 2-day period, the southern Texas with a stalled front positioned in the 58 km2 catchment received over 290 mm of rain, sustain- panhandle region of Texas (Fig. 1b). The 500-mb height ing large amounts of flood-related damage and a fatality. field (not shown) indicates an area of high pressure be- In the present work, we examine the primary hydro- hind the stalled front with a large gradient in atmospheric meteorological controls leading to heavy rainfall across moisture present along its edge. Precipitable water values central Texas and flooding along Bull Creek. The man- greater than 50 mm (central Texas September mean ’ uscript is divided into three sections analyzing meteo- 36.6 mm, standard deviation 5 12.0 mm) covered all of rological aspects of the storm, rainfall across the Bull southern and central Texas with values at approximately Creek basin, and flood hydrology of the catchment. half in the western portion of the state (Fig. 1c; Ware Specifically, we seek to characterize the structure, mo- et al. 2000). The 1200 UTC 7 September radiosonde from tion, and evolution of the storm along with determining Brownsville (data not shown) indicated the atmosphere the effect of terrain-aided forcing from the Balcones was nearly saturated through the troposphere (pre- Escarpment. Gauge-adjusted radar is used to describe cipitable water 5 67.5 mm). CAPE values from this re- 2 spatiotemporal rainfall patterns across the catchment cording were in excess of 2000 J kg 1 indicating moderate and calculate recurrence intervals. Physics-based dis- instability. Precipitable water values measured from the tributed hydrologic modeling is conducted to examine Midland radiosonde, located near the edge of the front, the important hydrologic mechanisms of the flood event. were about one-third of those at Brownsville. Models used include the Weather Research and Fore- As Hermine moved farther into Texas, the precipi- casting (WRF) Model (Skamarock et al. 2008) for storm tation shield began to change its structure and no longer Unauthenticated | Downloaded 09/30/21 03:35 PM UTC DECEMBER 2015 F U R L E T A L . 2313 FIG. 1. (a) Tropical Storm Hermine’s track through Texas. Times are given as four-digit hour (UTC) and day (in September 2010) for every other point.
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