Coastal Communities and the Currents of Vulnerability

Coastal Communities and the Currents of Vulnerability A novel approach to Australian sea level rise adaptation research Maximilian Maddison Supervisor: David Schlosberg Bachelor of Arts, Honours Government and International Relations The University of Sydney, 2019 Word Count: 19,787 Student ID: 450401138 Declaration This is to certify that the content of this research is substantially my own, and where any part of this work is not my own, I have indicated this by acknowledging the source of that part or those parts of the work. i Acknowledgements First and foremost, to my supervisor David Schlossberg for his patient guidance and impeccable advice throughout the year. And, as always, to my parents for their unwavering support. ii Abstract Sea levels are rising at an unprecedented rate. Using a novel approach in Australian sea level rise (SLR) adaptation research, this Honours thesis uses three case studies in New South Wales - Botany Bay, Lake Macquarie and Collaroy-Narrabeen - to consider the broad threat of rising sea levels to coastal communities. First, document analysis of current sea level rise adaptation plans shows that each local council perceives “adaptation as resilience”, prioritising the exposure of the built-environment over human vulnerability. However, using socio-spatial mapping highlights the inadequacy of current approaches, which by neglecting the currents of social vulnerability create incomplete perceptions of risk. Evidence of potential climate disadvantage – the simultaneous threat of ecological exposure and social vulnerability – in both Botany Bay and Lake Macquarie, is augmented by the identification of a vulnerable sub-population in Collaroy-Narrabeen. These findings underline the inadequacy of each councils’ risk-based adaptation policies. Last, the community-based research used in this dissertation demonstrates three clear benefits: (1) enabling community members to assign the factors that contribute to their own vulnerability; (2) highlighting social factors integral to individual and community vulnerability; and (3) including the voices of marginalised residents excluded from current decision-making processes. The research concludes by recommending that risk-management approaches adopt social vulnerability assessments to ensure existing disadvantage isn’t compounded by rising sea levels or adaptation planning. iii Table of Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 Research Problem .................................................................................................................. 1 Research Findings and Significance ........................................................................................ 3 Major finding & original contribution - Identification of climate disadvantage in Australia .............................................................................................................................. 3 Additional finding - First analysis of multiple Australian local councils SLRAPs ................. 4 Additional finding - First Australian assessment of local councils’ sea-level rise adaptation engagement strategies .................................................................................... 5 Additional finding - First NSW research assessing multiple communities’ considerations of “fair” adaptation............................................................................................................. 5 Chapter 1 Literature Review ...................................................................................................... 7 1.1 Risk-management ............................................................................................................. 7 1.1.1 Risk management approaches in Australia ............................................................... 8 1.1.2 Issues in risk-management approaches .................................................................... 8 1.2 Vulnerability ..................................................................................................................... 9 1.2.1 Social Vulnerability .................................................................................................. 12 1.2.2 Capabilities approach .............................................................................................. 15 1.3 Mapping vulnerability .................................................................................................... 16 1.4 Intersection between adaptation planning, social vulnerability and socio-spatial mapping ................................................................................................................................ 18 1.5 Chapter summary ........................................................................................................... 19 Chapter 2 Methods and Methodology .................................................................................... 21 2.1 Case study selection ....................................................................................................... 21 2.1.1 Local governments .................................................................................................. 22 2.1.2 Community-based research .................................................................................... 23 2.2 Methods ......................................................................................................................... 24 2.2.1 Document Analysis .................................................................................................. 24 2.2.2 Socio-spatial mapping ............................................................................................. 25 2.2.3 Questionnaires ........................................................................................................ 26 2.3 Ethics Approval ............................................................................................................... 28 2.4 Analysis of data .............................................................................................................. 28 2.4.1 Text Analysis ............................................................................................................ 28 2.4.2 Excel analysis ........................................................................................................... 28 iv 2.5 Strengths and limitations ............................................................................................... 29 2.6 Chapter summary ........................................................................................................... 30 Chapter 3 Botany Bay .............................................................................................................. 31 3.1 Climate profile ................................................................................................................ 31 3.2 Community profile ......................................................................................................... 32 3.3 Current SLR adaptation policy ........................................................................................ 32 3.4 Identifying climate disadvantage ................................................................................... 33 3.5 Questionnaire responses ............................................................................................... 37 3.5.1 Attitudes towards sea-level rise .............................................................................. 39 3.5.2 Local council SLRAP ................................................................................................. 40 3.5.3 Adaptive capacity .................................................................................................... 40 3.5.4 Well-being ................................................................................................................ 41 3.5.5 Focus of current and future SLR adaptation ........................................................... 43 3.6 Research findings ........................................................................................................... 45 Chapter 4 Lake Macquarie ....................................................................................................... 47 4.1 Climate profile ................................................................................................................ 48 4.2 Community profile ......................................................................................................... 49 4.3 Current SLRAP ................................................................................................................ 50 4.4 Climate disadvantage ..................................................................................................... 56 4.5 Questionnaire results ..................................................................................................... 60 4.5.1 Attitudes towards sea-level rise .............................................................................. 62 4.5.2 Local council SLRAP ................................................................................................. 63 4.5.3 Adaptive capacity .................................................................................................... 64 4.5.4 Well-being ................................................................................................................ 64 4.5.5 Focus of current and future

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