Changing Transportation Needs in the Developing and Industrialized World: Similar Problems, Similar Solutions?

Andreas Schafer, David H.Marks MIT

ALLIANCE FOR GLOBAL ANNUAL CONFERENCE, MARCH 21-23 INCAE, SAN JOSE, COSTA RICA WORKSHOP OUTLINE

• Urban Mobility: trends, challenges, and policy-lessons learned • Alternative transportation futures • The role of institutions and infra- structures in shaping transportation futures ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS CONSIDERED

• Suburbanization and land-use • Congestion • Noise • Pollution • Accidents • Energy use • Anthropogenic greenhouse effect SUBURBANIZATION AND LAND-USE

“Our property seems to me to be the most beautiful in the world: It is so close to Babylon that we enjoy all the advantages of the , and yet when we come home we are away from all the noise and the dust” (539 B.C.)

Source: Jackson (1985) CONGESTION

Congestion as an old phenomenon. Left: a London traffic jam in the late 1860’s. Top: New York City in 1917. Source: Lay (1992), Scientific American (October 1997). ACCIDENTS

Traffic Fatalities per 100 million vehicle-km: U.S. 20 18 Horses 16

14 Automobiles 12

10 Fatalities 8

6 4

2

0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year

Source: Lay (1992), U.S. Department of Commerce (2000) ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE EFFECT

Source: IPCC (1996): Climate Change 1995, The Science of Climate Change A REALISTIC THREAT? SESSION 1

Urban Mobility: trends, challenges, and policy-lessons learned Changing Transportation Needs in the US 1

Chris Zegras (MIT)

• Trends in metro areas: population, income, motorization, mode share (trips and vkt) • Problems: congestion (TTI data), (EPA data), accidents • (DOT data) • Current Realities from a few : Houston, Atlanta, New York City, Portland Changing Transportation Needs in the US 2

• Major debates: – Smart Growth vs. Sprawl – Light Rail as "Silver Bullet" – Congestion pricing – Bus innovations: LA – Share – ITS – Role and Future of Vehicle Technologies Angelica Castro

Bogotá - Colombia GENERAL INFORMATION

•7 million inhabitants, 210 persons/Hectare.

•1 million to transport 19% of the population.

•30.000 buses to transport 72% of the population.

• Urban bus speed (peak hour) = 10 Km/hr.

•2 hour and 20 minutes into p/day. STRATEGIES

•PUBLIC SPACE RECUPERATION

•

•DISCOURAGE PRIVATE CAR USE

•MASS TRANSPORTATION PUBLICPUBLIC SPACESPACE RECUPERATIONRECUPERATION • 285.500 mt2 constructed in walkways, green space, road dividers, sidewalks.

• 3.149 neighborhood parks

• 323 pocket parks

• 11 metropolitan parks

• BIKEWAYS ......

• BICYCLE DAYDAY ......

• BIKE-...... BICYCLE

• Bikeway network

• 210 Km of bikeways under construction

• Bicycle utilization grows from 1% in 1995 to 4% today DISCOURAGEDISCOURAGE PRIVATEPRIVATE CARCAR USEUSE

• RESTRICTION DURING PEAK HOURS

• FUEL SURCHARGE TAX

• CAR-FREE WEEKDAYS

• SPACES TRANSMILENIOTRANSMILENIO

•18.000 direct jobs during the construction.

•3.000 direct jobs in operation.

•Just 72 jobs are from the government. TRANSMILENIOTRANSMILENIO

•Ticket $900 (US $ 0.40). •148.000.000 passengers transportated. •650.000 passengers per day. •63.500 passengers during peak hours. •457 troncal buses and 198 feeder buses. •59 stations and 3 under construction. •38 kilometers operating. •26 Km/h BOGOTA 2016, TOTAL SYSTEM BOGOTA - COLOMBIA Megacities in Asia as “Transit-Metropolises” ?

Contents

1) Megacities in Asia 2) Problems and challenges to be “Transit-Metropolises” 3) Difficulties to be overcome and things to be done

Prof. Dr. Hitoshi IEDA TRIP Transport Research and Infrastructure Planning Lab, Dept.of Civil Eng., University of Tokyo 1) Megacities in Asia - Large part of world population.

- Many of world megacities

- Rapid economic growth in magacities

[Basic problems]

- Immense and Rapid Demographic Concentration

- Poverty or Large Disparity in Wealth

- Dense Habitation and Inadequate Living Conditions

- (Potentially) Terrible Traffic Problems 2) Problems and challenges to be “Transit-Metropolises” -1

[Points in transport in developing countries in Asia]

- Transit-based cites and motorcycle-based cites

- Basis of para-transit service supply

- Imbalance in transport demand in passenger and freight [Transit development in megacities]

• Japan and NIES. Already transit-metropolises mostly

• Manila and Bangkok. Light rail network development

• Jakarta. Modernization of existing rail system

• . Bus or rail?

• India. Too poor to develop transit systems of good quality 3) Difficulties to be overcome and things to be done

[Difficulties]

- Handicaps in price and in competitors to develop transit systems

- Weak institutional systems in urban development

- Flexible and practical approach/ Often too weak enforcement

- Strong market competition/ Often insufficient coordination [Are large cites in developing countries “sustainable”?]

“Sustainable Cities”

- High density in cores

- Use of public transit Mobility and Accessibility 1

Prof. Bjorn Malbert (Chalmers)

Mobility and Accessibility: A brief account on research approaches at Chalmers

Presented at the AGS annual meeting in Costa Rica, March 2002, at the workshop “The Future of Mobility – Transportation” by Professor Björn Malbert, Chalmers Environmental Initiative, Chalmers Architecture.

(the presentation is based on information from Anders Hagson, unit director at the Dept. of City and Mobility, Chalmers Architecture)

Sweden is a large country with very few inhabitants compared to other parts of Europe. Accordingly, our problems and research responses might not properly represent the European situation. However, in our largest cities traffic problems occur and are on the agenda of urban planning practice as well as research.

The research at the department of City and Mobility, Chalmers Architecture, lead by Anders Hagson started in late 1980s. It concerns different aspects on the relations between mobility systems and urban land-use development and focus on GIS-based tools for analysis and simulation to enhance policy and decision making of the different actors involved. In other words: "What is the present situation? What could be done if certain policy should be implemented? How can such measures be evaluated before and after action?" Mobility and Accessibility 2

Points of departure:

Social problems: Congestion, air pollution, noise problems etc. in cities, especially in the larger cities along the national motorway systems.

Proposed and partly implemented policy: Investments in by pass solutions in order to separate local and distant traffic, following the strong Swedish tradition of traffic separation.

Research questions: What impacts will these changes in the transport systems have on the overall urban land-use development and how can such changes be simulated and analysed in beforehand.

This led to the development of GIS-based applications for analysis with a key-focus on accessibility that later are used and developed for several purposes, for instance the impact of external shopping centres concerning traffic generation and environmental emissions.

Conclusions: Changes in the urban transport systems result in changed and not always expected land-use patterns that in turn generate new transportation behaviour and demands followed by new, or rather moved, congestion and environmental problems. About 30% of all new urban development in Sweden over the last decades is located along the newly built by pass roads. Thus, they have become "local streets" with mixed local and distant traffic in an urban structure that is very difficult to support with efficient public transportation systems. Mobility and Accessibility 3

Current research in brief:

1. Traffic Calming following the ZERO-vision policy for preventing serious accidents. As a result of the above-described measures, cities got many roads designed for faster by pass traffic that became local streets with need for a slower traffic. The aim for the research is to identify street characteristics that affect car speed. Except for speed studies, a traffic environmental simulator will be used for studies of how different physical elements in the traffic environment affect car speed and drivers’ behaviour.

2. Accessibility for different groups of people using different modes of transportation. All types of geographical areas can be studied with population information on real estate coordinates.

• Direct distances between the homes of urban residents and the nearest service unit (post office, schools, food stores etc.) have been analysed for the 45 largest towns in Sweden 1980 and 1995. Comprehensive accessibility analysis

• Distances (travel time) between any origin/destination in actual or planned street, public transport, foth path and bike lane networks with the respect to traffic safety, security and comfort for children, elderly and women. Detailed accessibility analysis Mobility and Accessibility 4 3. City Logistics for the efficient localisation of cargo terminals and routes in the urban region. The idea is how to describe, understand and handle flows of people and goods in urban areas.

• Analysis of the consequences of changed retail structure concerning the transport demands of the consumers as well as the providers.

• Strategic plan for improving the efficiency of flows of goods by locating terminals and identifying infrastructure improvements.

• Development of solutions for a more efficient and environmentally friendly city distribution.

4. Rapid Bus Transit - Subway on the ground, a flexible and step by step approach for the development of efficient urban public transportation systems. There is a need for practical alternatives to expensive rail solutions as congested streets and poor public transport have decreased the quality of the environment in urban areas around the world. Together with Volvo Mobility Systems and Volvo do Brazil the department work on the improvement of the “Curitiba system” in four main areas of development:

• Design of vehicles to provide visually appealing and customer oriented high-speed and high capacity service.

• Design of infrastructure, stations and stops to increase the speed, reduce the delays from boarding, crossings and congestion.

• Design of inter-modality and transit enhancing services.

• Development of principles for integration between land-use planning, transportation planning and traffic management. SESSION 2

Alternative transportation futures Carfree City 1

The Carfree City as a Critical Building Block for Equitable, Sustainable Societies

J.H. Crawford

AGS Conference San José, Costa Rica 21 March 2002 Carfree City 2 Abstract • Rapid urbanization will continue, especially in developing nations. • Resource and pollution constraints may limit increasing motorization in cities. • The adverse social effects of intensive motoring are a further brake on continuing motorization. • Billions of city dwellers need a better life, but continuing motorization is a poor means to achieve this end, even if technical innovation offers clean cars and sustainable energy. Carfree City 3 • The carfree city is the logical extension of urban planning approaches that reduce the intrusiveness of cars. Carfree cities, based on rail transport of passengers and freight, provide greater benefits, and at nearly irreducible economic and environmental costs. • Evidence suggests that many city dwellers in rich nations are seeking car-reduced living environments as a way to improve their lives. At least some of these people are ready for carfree neighborhoods. • The carfree city offers developing nations a sustainable means of greatly improving both the mobility and the quality of life of their citizens. Carfree City 4 Toward Global Mobility

Andreas Schafer MIT

ALLIANCE FOR GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY ANNUAL CONFERENCE, MARCH 21-23 INCAE, SAN JOSE, COSTA RICA TRAVEL BUDGETS AND IMPLICATIONS • On high aggregation levels, humans spend a fixed share of both money and time on transportation on average • As incomes rise, so does the demand for travel • Traveling greater distances within the same amount of time requires shifts toward faster modes – Urban areas: from and public modes toward automobiles – Intercity travel: from automobiles toward high-speed rail and aircraft TRAVEL TIME BUDGET: GLOBAL DATA

5.0 African Villages in: City Surveys: National Travel Surveys: I Tanzania, 1986 1 Tianjin (China), 1993 19 Paris (France), 1983 A , 1965/66 4.5 II Ghana, 1988 2 Kazanlik (Bulgaria), 1965/66 20 Paris (France), 1991 B Austria, 1983 3 Lima-Callao (Peru), 1965/66 21 Sendai (Japan), 1972 C Great Britain, 1985/86 4 Pskov (Former USSR), 1965/66 22 Sapporo (Japan), 1972 D , 1976 5 Maribor (Former Yugoslavia), 1965/66 23 Kanazawa (Japan), 1974 E Netherlands, 1979 4.0 6 Kragujevac (F. Yugoslavia), 1965/66 24 Kagoshima (Japan), 1974 F Great Britain, 1989/91 7 Torun (Poland), 1965/66 25 Kumamoto (Japan), 1973 G Finland, 1986 8 Gyoer (Hungary), 1965/66 26 Hamamatsu (Japan), 1975 H Netherlands, 1987 3.5 9 Olomouc (Former CSFR), 1965/66 27 Fukui (Japan), 1977 I France, 1984 10 Hoyerswerde (Former GDR), 1965/66 28 Niigata (Japan), 1978 J Germany, 1982 11 Sao Paulo (Brazil), 1987 29 Hiroshima (Japan), 1978 K Netherlands, 1989 3.0 12 Sao Paulo (Brazil), 1977 30 Osaka (Japan), 1980 L USA, 1990 13 Warsaw (Poland), 1993 31 Tokyo (Japan), 1980 M Germany, 1989 14 6 Cities (France), 1965/66 32 Osaka (Japan), 1985 N Switzerland, 1984 15 Osnabruck (Germany), 1965/66 33 Tokyo (Japan), 1985 O Switzerland, 1989 2.5 16 44 Cities (USA), 1965/66 34 Cities No. 21-29 in 1987 P Australia, 1986 17 Jackson (USA), 1965/66 35 Tokyo (Japan), 1990 Q Singapore, 1991 18 Paris (France), 1976 36 Osaka (Japan), 1990 R Norway, 1985 2.0 S Norway, 1992 T Japan, 1987

3 2 4 18 19 20

Travel Time Budegt, h/cap/d 13 1.5 G 6 16 7 H 35 O 1 12 31 D B J 17K P R 5 22 23 N S L 8 21 25 29 33 1.0 III 11 32 T 9 A 24 30 E M 36 10 14 15 28 F 26 27 C I 34 0.5 Q

0.0

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 GDP/cap, US$(1985) Source: Schafer and Victor (2000) TRAVEL MONEY BUDGET: 16 COUNTRIES

6 100 90 50 5 80 45 4 70 60 Belgium 40 3 50 Denmark 40 2 France 30 35 FRG 1 20 Share of Households, % 30 10 Greece 0 0 Ireland

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Cumulative Share of Households, % 25 Travel Money Expenditures, % total Expenditures Italy Japan 20 NL 15 Portugal Travel Money Budget, % 10 UK USA 5 Thailand Tunisia Sri Lanka 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 GDP/cap, US$(1985)

Source: Schafer and Victor (2000) BUDGET IMPLICATIONS: NATIONAL LEVEL

5 1 Delhi (1978-80) 14 Netherlands (1985) 2 U.K. (1975/76) 15 Netherlands (1990) 3 U.K. (1985/86) 16 Netherlands (1995) 4 U.K. (1989/91) 17 Australia (1985/86) 4 5 U.K. (1995/97) 18 U.S. (1977) 21 6 Germany (1976) 19 U.S. (1983) 7 Germany (1982) 20 U.S. (1990) 8 Germany (1989) 21 U.S. (1995) 3 9 Switzerland (1984) 10 Switzerland (1989) 20 Walk 11 Switzerland (1994) 17 19 Bike 12 Norway (1985) 13 Norway (1992) 18 13 Public 2 12 Auto 4 5 14 3 15 9 10,16 Trip Rate, Trips/cap/d 2 8 7 6 1

1 0 0 10203040506070 Per Capita Traffic Volume, pkm/cap/d

Source: Schafer (2000) BUDGET IMPLICATIONS: WORLD MOBILITY (Data Points: 1960 - 1990; Curves: 1960 - 2050) 1000000 Industrialized Regions North America Target Point Western Europe Pacific OECD 100000 Reforming Regions Eastern Europe Former Soviet Union

10000

Developing Regions Latin America 1000 Middle East & North Africa

Per Capita Traffic Volume, pkm Per Capita Traffic Sub-Saharan Africa Centrally Planned Asia South Asia Other Pacific Asia 100 100 1000 10000 100000 1000000 GDP/cap, US$(1985) Source: Schafer and Victor (2000); economic growth rates based on IPCC IS92a/e scenario MODAL SHARES: EUROPE (Data Points: 1960 - 1990; Curves: 1960 - 2050)

100 Automobiles 90 Buses Railways WEU 80 High-Speed Modes EEU 70 60 50 40 30 (pkm), % 20 10 0 100 1000 10000 100000 Per Capita Traffic Volume, pkm

Source: Schafer and Victor (2000) AA SCANSCAN OFOF ALTERNATIVEALTERNATIVE MOBILITYMOBILITY FUTURESFUTURES

Annual Conference March 21 - 23, 2002 San José Costa Rica

Germán C. Lleras E. MCP/MST Candidate Massachusetts Institute of Technology Perception of mobility futures

1 Imaginary Visions

2 Projections and Forecasts

3 Descriptive Scenarios Imaginary Visions Salient Characteristics of Projections and Forecasts

Stock of Forecasts and Real Figures Automobiles (Mill) Auto Ownership in Germany  Demand for mobility will increase worldwide

 Shift from slower to faster modes

Relevance of the automobile (has been underestimated in the past!)

Until 1991 data for Western Germany only Source: Mobility and Climate (1994),German Parliament Descriptive Scenarios

 Economic growth in some developing countries  More stringent environmental regulation and a more demanding global community  Urbanization / Suburbanization trend continues  Access and availability of oil is limited

Technology Driven (Shell)  Continuing growth of automobile use  Commercial hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles

Policy Driven Scenarios (APTA ------Car-Free Cities)  Improvements in transit and slow-modes  Declining auto-dependence at the urban level  Urban Design encouraging higher densities Questions - Conclusions

 What will be the role of the private automobile in different parts of the world?

 What will be the role of transit and slow modes?

 What will be the role of technology as a tool to reduce the undesired effects of mobility, pollution (efficient fuels), congestion (ITS), accidents (safety devices)?

 What could be the unintended effects of following a technology driven solution or following radical changes in human behavior?

 Are developing countries just following the path of the developed world, or is there room for leapfrogging and therefore to take advantage of technologies and policies that would help them save valuable resources? SESSION 3

The role of institutions and in shaping transportation futures Institutional Capacities 1

Prof. Ralph Gakenheimer (MIT)

I. The Problem of Long Range Planning for Urban Mobility • Typical lack of interest in the long range because it doesn't identify individual stakes in that future. • The problem of attachment to high cost solutions such as subways,beyond the means of most cities (especially in Central America). • The problem of metropolitan fragmentation into different political subunits (comunas, distritos, or whatever) Institutional Capacities 2

• Therefore the need is for: – Government commitment to the importance of preparations for future serious problems – Participatory incrementalism--that engages stakeholders in the long range by initially relating them to near term projects. – Budgetary realism – Metroplitanization of government (examples such as the frictions between the Distrito Federal and the State of Mexico, etc.) Institutional Capacities 3 III. Particular issues • The need for anticipation (e.g. the sudden appearance of massive private parking garages when their rental prospects become financially attractive, without expansion of street capacity) • The need for central access to protect the develop- ment of the city center (e.g. the apparent roles of Latin American metros in keeping the cities that have metros more viable than others. Potential roles for high capacity bus transport (on dedicated lanes, etc.) • The need for entrepreneurial effort (Possibilities for car sharing to reduce potential auto ownership--our case that examines the numbers for Santiago, Chile) Prof. Alberto Trejos (INCAE)

A Study of Connectivity in Latin America