Changing Transportation Needs in the Developing and Industrialized World: Similar Problems, Similar Solutions? Andreas Schafer, David H.Marks MIT ALLIANCE FOR GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY ANNUAL CONFERENCE, MARCH 21-23 INCAE, SAN JOSE, COSTA RICA WORKSHOP OUTLINE • Urban Mobility: trends, challenges, and policy-lessons learned • Alternative transportation futures • The role of institutions and infra- structures in shaping transportation futures ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS CONSIDERED • Suburbanization and land-use • Congestion • Noise • Pollution • Accidents • Energy use • Anthropogenic greenhouse effect SUBURBANIZATION AND LAND-USE “Our property seems to me to be the most beautiful in the world: It is so close to Babylon that we enjoy all the advantages of the city, and yet when we come home we are away from all the noise and the dust” (539 B.C.) Source: Jackson (1985) CONGESTION Congestion as an old phenomenon. Left: a London traffic jam in the late 1860’s. Top: New York City in 1917. Source: Lay (1992), Scientific American (October 1997). ACCIDENTS Traffic Fatalities per 100 million vehicle-km: U.S. 20 18 Horses 16 14 Automobiles 12 10 Fatalities 8 6 4 2 0 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year Source: Lay (1992), U.S. Department of Commerce (2000) ANTHROPOGENIC GREENHOUSE EFFECT Source: IPCC (1996): Climate Change 1995, The Science of Climate Change A REALISTIC THREAT? SESSION 1 Urban Mobility: trends, challenges, and policy-lessons learned Changing Transportation Needs in the US 1 Chris Zegras (MIT) • Trends in metro areas: population, income, motorization, mode share (trips and vkt) • Problems: congestion (TTI data), air pollution (EPA data), accidents • Infrastructure (DOT data) • Current Realities from a few cities: Houston, Atlanta, New York City, Portland Changing Transportation Needs in the US 2 • Major debates: – Smart Growth vs. Sprawl – Light Rail as "Silver Bullet" – Congestion pricing – Bus innovations: LA – Car Share – ITS – Role and Future of Vehicle Technologies Angelica Castro Bogotá - Colombia GENERAL INFORMATION •7 million inhabitants, 210 persons/Hectare. •1 million cars to transport 19% of the population. •30.000 buses to transport 72% of the population. • Urban bus speed (peak hour) = 10 Km/hr. •2 hour and 20 minutes into public transport p/day. STRATEGIES •PUBLIC SPACE RECUPERATION •BICYCLE •DISCOURAGE PRIVATE CAR USE •MASS TRANSPORTATION PUBLICPUBLIC SPACESPACE RECUPERATIONRECUPERATION • 285.500 mt2 constructed in walkways, green space, road dividers, sidewalks. • 3.149 neighborhood parks • 323 pocket parks • 11 metropolitan parks BICYCLES • BIKEWAYS . • BICYCLE DAYDAY . • BIKE-PARKINGS. BICYCLE • Bikeway network • 210 Km of bikeways under construction • Bicycle utilization grows from 1% in 1995 to 4% today DISCOURAGEDISCOURAGE PRIVATEPRIVATE CARCAR USEUSE • RESTRICTION DURING PEAK HOURS • FUEL SURCHARGE TAX • CAR-FREE WEEKDAYS • PARKING SPACES TRANSMILENIOTRANSMILENIO •18.000 direct jobs during the construction. •3.000 direct jobs in operation. •Just 72 jobs are from the government. TRANSMILENIOTRANSMILENIO •Ticket $900 (US $ 0.40). •148.000.000 passengers transportated. •650.000 passengers per day. •63.500 passengers during peak hours. •457 troncal buses and 198 feeder buses. •59 stations and 3 under construction. •38 kilometers operating. •26 Km/h BOGOTA 2016, TOTAL SYSTEM BOGOTA - COLOMBIA Megacities in Asia as “Transit-Metropolises” ? Contents 1) Megacities in Asia 2) Problems and challenges to be “Transit-Metropolises” 3) Difficulties to be overcome and things to be done Prof. Dr. Hitoshi IEDA TRIP Transport Research and Infrastructure Planning Lab, Dept.of Civil Eng., University of Tokyo 1) Megacities in Asia - Large part of world population. - Many of world megacities - Rapid economic growth in magacities [Basic problems] - Immense and Rapid Demographic Concentration - Poverty or Large Disparity in Wealth - Dense Habitation and Inadequate Living Conditions - (Potentially) Terrible Traffic Problems 2) Problems and challenges to be “Transit-Metropolises” -1 [Points in transport in developing countries in Asia] - Transit-based cites and motorcycle-based cites - Basis of para-transit service supply - Imbalance in transport demand in passenger and freight [Transit development in megacities] • Japan and NIES. Already transit-metropolises mostly • Manila and Bangkok. Light rail network development • Jakarta. Modernization of existing rail system • China. Bus or rail? • India. Too poor to develop transit systems of good quality 3) Difficulties to be overcome and things to be done [Difficulties] - Handicaps in price and in competitors to develop transit systems - Weak institutional systems in urban development - Flexible and practical approach/ Often too weak enforcement - Strong market competition/ Often insufficient coordination [Are large cites in developing countries “sustainable”?] “Sustainable Cities” - High density in cores - Use of public transit Mobility and Accessibility 1 Prof. Bjorn Malbert (Chalmers) Mobility and Accessibility: A brief account on research approaches at Chalmers Presented at the AGS annual meeting in Costa Rica, March 2002, at the workshop “The Future of Mobility – Transportation” by Professor Björn Malbert, Chalmers Environmental Initiative, Chalmers Architecture. (the presentation is based on information from Anders Hagson, unit director at the Dept. of City and Mobility, Chalmers Architecture) Sweden is a large country with very few inhabitants compared to other parts of Europe. Accordingly, our problems and research responses might not properly represent the European situation. However, in our largest cities traffic problems occur and are on the agenda of urban planning practice as well as research. The research at the department of City and Mobility, Chalmers Architecture, lead by Anders Hagson started in late 1980s. It concerns different aspects on the relations between mobility systems and urban land-use development and focus on GIS-based tools for analysis and simulation to enhance policy and decision making of the different actors involved. In other words: "What is the present situation? What could be done if certain policy should be implemented? How can such measures be evaluated before and after action?" Mobility and Accessibility 2 Points of departure: Social problems: Congestion, air pollution, noise problems etc. in cities, especially in the larger cities along the national motorway systems. Proposed and partly implemented policy: Investments in by pass solutions in order to separate local and distant traffic, following the strong Swedish tradition of traffic separation. Research questions: What impacts will these changes in the transport systems have on the overall urban land-use development and how can such changes be simulated and analysed in beforehand. This led to the development of GIS-based applications for analysis with a key-focus on accessibility that later are used and developed for several purposes, for instance the impact of external shopping centres concerning traffic generation and environmental emissions. Conclusions: Changes in the urban transport systems result in changed and not always expected land-use patterns that in turn generate new transportation behaviour and demands followed by new, or rather moved, congestion and environmental problems. About 30% of all new urban development in Sweden over the last decades is located along the newly built by pass roads. Thus, they have become "local streets" with mixed local and distant traffic in an urban structure that is very difficult to support with efficient public transportation systems. Mobility and Accessibility 3 Current research in brief: 1. Traffic Calming following the ZERO-vision policy for preventing serious accidents. As a result of the above-described measures, cities got many roads designed for faster by pass traffic that became local streets with need for a slower traffic. The aim for the research is to identify street characteristics that affect car speed. Except for speed studies, a traffic environmental simulator will be used for studies of how different physical elements in the traffic environment affect car speed and drivers’ behaviour. 2. Accessibility for different groups of people using different modes of transportation. All types of geographical areas can be studied with population information on real estate coordinates. • Direct distances between the homes of urban residents and the nearest service unit (post office, schools, food stores etc.) have been analysed for the 45 largest towns in Sweden 1980 and 1995. Comprehensive accessibility analysis • Distances (travel time) between any origin/destination in actual or planned street, public transport, foth path and bike lane networks with the respect to traffic safety, security and comfort for children, elderly and women. Detailed accessibility analysis Mobility and Accessibility 4 3. City Logistics for the efficient localisation of cargo terminals and routes in the urban region. The idea is how to describe, understand and handle flows of people and goods in urban areas. • Analysis of the consequences of changed retail structure concerning the transport demands of the consumers as well as the providers. • Strategic plan for improving the efficiency of flows of goods by locating terminals and identifying infrastructure improvements. • Development of solutions for a more efficient and environmentally friendly city distribution. 4. Rapid Bus Transit - Subway on the ground, a flexible and step by step approach for the development