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JSE Presentation Useful Charting Tips COMMON TRADING MISTAKES Little Preparation or Training Being Too Emotional About Money Lack of Recordkeeping Anticipating Profits Blindly Following Mechanical Systems Not Learning How to Short Improper Timing COMMON CHARTING MISTAKES Not using bigger time frames & trading against the trend Using too many indicators & misusing them Following emotions rather than signals 5 STOCK MARKET STAGES Greed Stage Mark-Up Distribution Stage Stage Mark-down Accumulation Stage Stage 3 PHASES OF A TREND Excess Participation Accumulation Bull Trend Accumulation Participation Excess Bear Trend DATE BACK YOUR A USEFUL TIP CHARTS History repeats itself Dating back trendlines gives you an idea of how far 1 the momentum of the trend could go KEY HISTORICAL LEVELS Breaching important, dated back levels indicate a potential reversal and where price is potentially 2 headed Correction or reversal Prevents one from trading against the trend 3 The ability to distinguish between a reversal or correction in trend SGL (MONTHLY CHART) SGL (WEEKLY CHART) SGL (DAILY CHART) TOP-DOWN APPROACH TIP gives you such invaluable information about the markets Monthly stipulates which stage the trend is at Chart its like a certificate that indicates how the main market participants are behaving and thinking Weekly Chart most widely used by traders Daily reveal how the daily fluctuations are fitting in to the overall Chart picture Intra-day earlier entry and exit points Chart CHART FIRST Remember TRADING INDICATORS SECOND TOO MANY INDICATORS COULD GET YOU BROKE It could lead to contradiction or confusion THAT’S BECAUSE Leading indicators & Lagging Indicators Relative Strength Index Rate Of Change Stochastics COMMON Moving Average INDICATORSBollinger Bands Percent Price Oscillator Coppock Curve SuperTrend LESS KNOWN Know Sure Thing Why Are Oscillators Necessary? Often to confirm the direction of the trend and a breakout – a second opinion to the movement on the price chart To determine when a trend is running out of steam – a reversal Identify overbought or oversold conditions Crossovers Divergence Moving AverageDetermine a trend MY PERSONAL FAVORITES For Overbought/Oversold Relative StrengthExtremes Index MACD Crossover trading MOVING AVERGE Smooths out price action over time Removes the “noise” from random price fluctuations By looking at the slope of the moving average, you can better determine the potential direction of market prices Two major types of moving averages: SIMPLE MA EXPONENTIAL MA Simple Moving Average – 20 WEEK SELL SELL SELL BUY BUY Simple Moving Average – In Non-trends SELL SELL SELL Whipsaws SELL BUY BUY BUY Simple Moving Average – 50 WEEK Greed Stage TIP Mark-Up Stage Distribution Stage Accumulation Stage Simple Moving Average – 50 WEEK Greed Stage Mark-Up Stage Accumulation Stage Simple Moving Average – 50 WEEK Greed Stage Mark-Up Stage Distribution Stage Accumulation Stage Mark-down Accumulation Stage Stage MOVING AVERGE DIVERGENCE CONVERGENCE HOLD SELL SELL BUY BUYMACD LINE SIGNAL LINE BUY Moving average crossovers Histogram MACD H istogram Measures the distance between MACD and its signal line (the 9-day EMA of MACD) Is also an oscillator that fluctuates above and below the zero line Designed to identify convergence, divergence and crossovers ABOVE ZERO: Upside, bullish momentum 0 0 BELOW ZERO: Downside, bearish momentum The Importance Of The Histogram Bridges the time gap between the price movement and MACD The histogram values increase as MACD diverges further from its signal line An indication of a ripe crossover is given when the histogram values start to decrease and head for the zero line In other words, the decrease in height when above and below the zero line signifies that the underlying momentum is getting weaker Indicates extremes – overbought/oversold conditions Divergence Negative divergence Prepare to close long & sell Prepare to BUY Above major Positive divergence prepare resistance to close short & buy TRADE THE HISTOGRAM SUGESTION LET THE CROSSOVER BE CONFIRMATION When the current bar is higher than the preceding bar – bulls are in control – prepare to go long or buy When the current bar is lower than the previous bar – bears are in control – prepare to go short or sell TRADING RULES BUY o When the MACD-Histogram stops falling and ticks up o Then place a protective stop – usually below the low of the previous candle SELL o When MACD-Histogram stops rising and ticks down o Then place a protective stop – usually above the high of the previous candle Maintain different time frames Look at a greater time frame and then execute your trade on a smaller time frame A USEFUL TIP WHY? Monthly/Weekly signals are more important than those on daily charts Use monthly/weekly signals to determine market direction and the daily signals to fine-tune entry and exit points HOW TO CHERRY PICK STOCKS IN AN INDEX RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX 0 Oscillates 100 Above 50 Many traders would consider the market bullish Below 50 Indicates bearish price momentum > 80 or 70 RSI considered overbought < 20 or 30 RSI considered oversold OVERBOUGHT Price is expensive, a pull-back is expected – prepare to SELL OVERSOLD Price is cheap, a recovery is anticipated – prepare to BUY Relative Strength Index Chart SELL BUY OVERBOUGHT OVERSOLD Relative Strength Index Periods There is no right or wrong period Set according to whatever best serves a trading strategy or style LONGER PERIOD SHORTER PERIOD • smoother RSI • volatile or sensitive RSI • lesser trading signals triggered • more trading signals given 21 DAY RSI 14 DAY RSI (default) 7 DAY RSI 3 DAY RSI (popular) TIP when the WEEKLY RSI is overbought or is negatively diverging BUY when the WEEKLY RSI is oversold or turns bullish SELL Control Your Emotions m …. more crucial than learning any trading i strategy n d s 80% 10% 10% e Risk Trading Mindset Management Strategy t MASTER YOUR EMOTIONS AND YOU’LL MASTER THE MARKET Control your emotions FEAR greed Makes you react contrary You become over-confident – to human nature feeling like a god Substantial losses can be Your temptation to increase traumatic you exposure in the market is heightened Good trading opportunities are lost Trading becomes associated You’re at your most dangerous with a painful experience Traders emotional Cycle Point of maximum financial risk Point of maximum financial opportunity Optimism WHEN in a trade ask yourself these questions Do I love this trade? Am I confident in this trade and my decision? Is this an impulsive trade? Am I revenge trading? MY VIEWS ON THE TOP40 INDEX 55,195 49,230 43,770 49,925 31,395 TOP40 INDEX (MONTHLY CHART) 55,195 52,800 49,230 48,060 49,925 TOP40 INDEX (WEEKLY CHART) TOP40 INDEX (MACD CHART) Greed Stage Mark-Up Stage Distribution Stage Accumulation Stage TOP40 INDEX (50 week MA) ANY QUESTIONS?.
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