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INFORMATION to USERS This Manuscript Has Been Reproduced from the Microfilm Master. UMI Films the Text Directly from the Origina INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleedthrough, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand corner and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each original is also photographed in one exposure and is included in reduced form at the back of the book. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. UMI University Microfilms International A Bell & Howell Information Company 300 North Zeeb Road. Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 USA 313/761-4700 800/521-0600 Order Number 9407439 Determinants of Soviet foreign policy: A study of Soviet policy toward Pakistan, 1960-1971 Hussain, Farhat, Ph.D. The American University, 1993 Copyright ©1994 by Hussain, Farhat. All rights reserved. UMI 300N.ZeebRd. Ann Arbor, MI 48106 DETERMINANTS OF SOVIET FOREIGN POLICY: A STUDY OF SOVIET POLICY TOWARD PAKISTAN, 1960-1971 by Farhat Hussain submitted to the Faculty of the School of International Service of The American University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations Signatures of Committee: Chair: Linda L. Lubrano . 'M^gr William H. Kincade . Thomas P. Thornton . Dean of School of International Servicer* , Louis W. Goodman . /\4\*o. tO. (S^<km^. Date: April 26, 1993 1993 The American University 7+3°1 Washington D.C. 20016 THE AMERICA!! UKIVEESITY. LIBRABY To My mother and father who made this dissertation possible ABSTRACT DETERMINANTS OF SOVIET FOREIGN POLICY: SOVIET POLICY TOWARD PAKISTAN, 1960-1971 by Farhat Hussain Foreign policy is the outcome of a complex interaction among situational variables at the global, regional, bilateral, and domestic levels, which are filtered through a country's unique perceptual prism. While recognizing the role of perceptual factors in Soviet foreign policy, this study stresses the importance of situational variables in foreign policy formulation. It is asserted that, like other countries in the international system, the Soviet Union responded to the demands of realpolitik, pursued its national interest, and tried to maximize its power. This study attempts to delineate the determinants of Soviet policy toward Pakistan and to draw some general conclusions about Soviet foreign policy behavior. The author challenges many dominant assumptions and explanations regarding Soviet policy toward Pakistan and provides alternative interpretations of particular policies and events. The relative impact of global, regional, and bilateral factors on Soviet policy toward Pakistan is analyzed for the period 1960-1971. Hypotheses at each level establish linkages between changes in Soviet relations with other countries and fluctuations in Soviet-Pakistan relations. At the global level, Soviet-Chinese relations were found to be most significant in the determination of Soviet policy toward Pakistan; at the regional level, Soviet-Indian relations were most significant; and at the bilateral level, Pakistan-China relations were most significant. In comparing variables from these three levels, inputs from the global ii level were found to have the maximum influence on the formulation of Soviet policy toward Pakistan. This dissertation is a contribution to the literature on foreign policy analysis and Soviet studies in several ways: a case study approach is successfully combined with a broader theoretical and conceptual framework; hypotheses regarding the influence of variables at different levels of analysis are empirically tested; and, unlike previous studies, the Soviet perspective of events is presented. Finally, the multi-level approach employed here provides a more comprehensive understanding of Soviet objectives toward Pakistan. The conceptual framework and hypotheses outlined in this dissertation can be used to study Soviet-Pakistan relations in other periods and also Soviet relations with other countries. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS During the course of my research and writing, I obtained the assistance of many institutions, organizations, and individuals, to whom I would like to express my gratitude. My chairperson and advisor, Professor Linda L. Lubrano has been a source of inspiration for me since the beginning of my education at The American University. She has always taught me to pursue my goals relentlessly and to strive for the highest academic standards. Had it not been for her sound scholarly advice and criticism, her emphasis on empirical and logical analysis, her meticulous editing, and her patience, this thesis would have been an entirely different product, and I would not have benefited as much as I did from writing it. Her belief in my abilities and her personal commitment to the successful completion of my dissertation meant a great deal to me. I would also like to thank my other committee members, Professor William H. Kincade of The School of International Service (The American University) and Professor Thomas P. Thornton of the School of Advanced International Affairs (Johns Hopkins University) for their able suggestions and constructive criticism, their intellectual input, their flexibility, and their accessibility. Professor Kincade's overall knowledge of international affairs, and his broader perspective of issues were an asset for me in writing my thesis. Professor Thornton's in-depth knowledge of South Asian affairs and first-hand experience with policy-making in this area were also invaluable for me. My home institution. The Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad, made its staff and facilities readily available to me during my research in Pakistan, and my colleagues at the Institute were always willing to help. I am particularly grateful to Dr. Imtiaz H. Bokhari, a iv former colleague and family friend, for his intellectual guidance, his invaluable help and advice at many difficult junctures in my life, and for having faith in me. I am thankful also to my professors at the Quaid-e-Azam University in Islamabad, from where I graduated, particularly Dr. Pervaiz I. Cheema (head of the Department of International Relations), for their guidance and encouragement. I would like to thank Dr. Iurii V. Gankovskii* (former director of the Middle East and South Asia section of the Institute of Oriental Studies in Moscow) for arranging my visit to and stay in Moscow, and for providing me access to the library and scholars of the Institute; the director of the Middle East and South Asia section of the Institute, Dr. V. Y. Belokrinitskii, and South Asia specialist, Dr. Raila Mukimdjanova for helping me understand the Soviet perspective; and other scholars at the Institute, particularly Dr. Dimitri Novoselov and Dr. Marina Morozova, who guided and assisted me in my research there during summer 1988. I would also like to thank the researchers and staff of the following institutions for their help in providing me access to material and to xeroxing facilities: Pakistan Institute of International Affairs, Karachi; National Defence University Library, Rawalpindi; the National Assembly Library, Islamabad; the newspaper library of the Press Information Department (Pakistan Ministry of Information); the library of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs; Institut vostokovedeniia Akademiia nauk (IVAN), Moscow; Institut mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia i mirovaia ekonomika (IMEMO), Moscow; the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), London; the British Newspaper Library at Collinsdale, London; and the Institute of International Affairs, London. My thanks also to all the decision-makers, politicians, military personnel, and academicians in Pakistan, the United States, England, and Russian names and sources already transliterated are cited as published. Sources transliterated from the original follow the U.S. Library of Congress system (without diacritical marks). v the Soviet Union (some of whom preferred to remain anonymous), who made the time to be interviewed and gave me an opportunity to benefit from their experience and knowledge. A merit scholarship from the Government of Pakistan enabled me to finance my education in the United States. I was also supported by a generous grant from the Social Science Research Council, which made it possible, amongst other things, for me to travel to the former Soviet Union, to spend a semester at SAIS, and to finance my Russian language training. I am grateful to Dr. Louis W. Goodman, Dean of the School of International Service, who has been extremely accommodating and ready to help in whatever manner possible. Various assistantships in SIS, obtained with his cooperation, saw me through
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