IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH POLITICAL MONITOR February 2021

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How do you intend to use your first (constituency) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?

Headline voting intention All with a voting intention

SNP 52% SNP 52%

Conservative 23% Conservative 22%

Labour 15% Labour 15%

Lib Dems 5% Lib Dems 6%

Green Party 3% Green Party 3%

Other 2% Other 2%

SNP lead = +29 SNP lead = +30

Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+,15-21 February 2021; Headline voting intention: all expressing a voting intention and 9 or 10/10 likely to vote (761); All with a voting intention: all expressing a voting Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor intention (907). Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

3 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Holyrood Voting Intention: List Vote

How do you intend to use your second (list) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?

Headline voting intention All with a voting intention

SNP 47% SNP 47%

Conservative 22% Conservative 21%

Labour 14% Labour 14%

Green Party 8% Green Party 8%

Lib Dems 6% Lib Dems 7%

Other 3% Other 3%

SNP lead = +25 SNP lead = +26

Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+, 15-21 February 2021; Headline voting intention: all expressing a voting intention and 9 or 10/10 likely to vote (767); All with a voting intention: all expressing a voting Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor intention (920). Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.

4 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Holyrood Voting Intention: Constituency Vote

How do you intend to use your first (constituency) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?

October 2020 – February 2021 75%

February 2021 58% 55% 52% 50% SNP 23% Conservative 15% 22% 25% 19% Labour 13% 14% 5% Liberal Democrat 8% 6% 1% 3% 1% Green Party 0% Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

Base: c. 800-900 Scottish adults aged 16+ per wave, expressing a voting intention and likely to vote. Latest wave: :15-21 February 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

5 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Holyrood Voting Intention: List Vote

How do you intend to use your second (list) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election?

October 2020 – February 2021 75%

February 2021 47% 47% 50% 47% SNP 22% Conservative 14% 22% Labour 25% 19% 16% 8% 13% Green Party 9% 7% 6% 8% Liberal Democrat 0% 6% Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21

Base: c. 800-900 Scottish adults aged 16+ per wave, expressing a voting intention and likely to vote. Latest wave: 15-21 February 2021. Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

6 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Constituency voting: Have you definitely decided who to vote for? Have you definitely decided to vote for the [NAME OF PARTY] on your constituency vote, or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote?

Definitely decided May change my mind

Among all expressing a voting intention

67% 31% Among all Conservative Party supporters 76% 21% Among all SNP supporters 73% 25% Among all Labour Party supporters 46% 53%

Base: 849 Scottish adults 16+ giving a voting intention, including Conservative (189), SNP (446), Labour (122) supporters, 15-21 February 2021

7 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Constituency voting: Have you definitely decided who to vote for?

Have you definitely decided to vote for the [NAME OF If you do change your mind about voting for this party on your PARTY] on your constituency vote, or is there a chance constituency vote, which party would you vote for instead? you may change your mind before you vote? Among all expressing a voting intention All giving a voting intention who “may change my mind”

Labour 20% Definitely 2% SNP 12% decided Green Party 9%

31% Liberal Democrats 8% May change my mind Conservative 7% Independent candidate 2%

Don’t None of them 2% 67% know Other 1%

Undecided 39%

Base: 849 Scottish adults 16+ giving a voting intention, 15-21 February 2021 Base: 265 Scottish adults 16+ giving a voting intention who may change their mind, 15-21 February 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Regional list voting: Have you definitely decided who to vote for? Have you definitely decided to vote for the [NAME OF PARTY] on your regional list vote, or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote?

Definitely decided Don’t know May change my mind

Among all expressing a voting intention

68% 31% Among all Conservative Party supporters 73% 23% Among all SNP supporters 73% 26% Among all Labour Party supporters 58% 41%

Base: 880 Scottish adults 16+ giving a voting intention, including Conservative (196), SNP (449), Labour (132) 15-21 February 2021

9 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Regional list voting: Have you definitely decided who to vote for?

Have you definitely decided to vote for the [NAME OF If you do change your mind about voting for this party on your PARTY] party on your regional list vote, or is there a regional list vote, which party would you vote for instead? chance you may change your mind before you vote? Among all expressing a voting intention All giving a voting intention who “may change my mind”

Labour 20% Definitely 2% Scottish National Party (SNP) 11% decided Green Party 9%

31% Liberal Democrats 7% May change my mind Conservative 7% Action for Independence 1%

Don’t Independent candidate 1% 68% know None of them 1%

Undecided 44%

Base: 880 Scottish adults 16+ giving a voting intention, 15-21 February 2021 Base: 277 Scottish adults 16+ giving a voting intention who may change their mind, 15-21 February 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Which issues are Among all 9/10 likely to vote in the Scottish Parliamentary election going to help voters Scottish independence/ 44% decide which party to devolution vote for? Education 32%

Looking ahead to the Scottish Parliamentary election, which, if Healthcare/ NHS 25% any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping Coronavirus 20% you decide which party to vote for?

Only issues mentioned by 10% or more are Managing the economy 18% shown here. For the full list of issues, see the data tables on the Ipsos MORI website. Brexit/ EU 12%

Environment/ climate change 12%

Base: 834 Scottish adults 16+ at least 9/10 likely to vote, 15-21 February 2021

11 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Which issues are going to help decide which party to vote for in the Scottish Parliamentary election? Top five issues by party vote (among those at least 9/10 likely to vote) Looking ahead to the Scottish Parliamentary election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? Among SNP supporters Among Conservative supporters Among Labour supporters

Scottish independence/ devolution 48% 51% 39%

Education 28% 35% 38%

Coronavirus 25% 13% 20%

Healthcare/ NHS 22% 24% 31%

Managing the economy 15% 23% 17%

Base: 834 Scottish adults 16+ at least 9/10 likely to vote, including SNP (395), Conservative (188) and Labour (122) supporters, 15-21 February 2021

12 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public PARTY LEADERS

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Holyrood 2021 Election Tracker | November 2020 | Public Net Satisfaction with Nicola Sturgeon Scottish party satisfied Feb '21 64%4% 32% +32 leaders Oct '20 72%4% 24% +48 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. Douglas Ross is doing his/her job… Feb '21 28% 32% 40% -12 as First Minister of Scotland/ leader of the Scottish Oct '20 22% 40% 39% -17 Conservative and Unionist Party/ the Scottish Liberal Willie Rennie Democrats/ co-leader of the Feb '21 35% 36% 29% +6 Scottish Green Party? Oct '20 29% 41% 30% -1 Satisfied Don’t know Patrick Harvie Feb '21 35% 42% 23% Dissatisfied +12

Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+, 15-21 February 2021

14 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Net Satisfaction with Boris Johnson leaders and satisfied opposition Feb '21 26% 5% 69% -43 Are you satisfied or Oct '20 19% 5% 76% -58 dissatisfied with the way… is doing his/her job… Nicola Sturgeon as Prime Minister/First Minister of Scotland/leader Feb '21 64%4% 32% +32 of the UK Labour Party?

Oct '20 72% 4% 24% Satisfied +48

Don’t know Keir Starmer

Dissatisfied Feb '21 38% 27% 35% +3

Oct '20 44% 29% 27% +16

Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+, 15-21 February 2021

15 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Net Satisfaction with Nicola Sturgeon party leaders: satisfied Feb '21 95% 4% +91 Among own Oct '20 6% party supporters 93% +87 Douglas Ross Are you satisfied or Feb '21 dissatisfied with the way…. 73% 16% 11% +62 is doing his/her job… Oct '20 66% 20% 14% +52 as Prime Minister/First Minister of Scotland/leader Boris Johnson of the UK Labour Feb '21 77%4% 19% +58 Party/Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party? Oct '20 56% 6% 38% +19 Satisfied Keir Starmer Don’t know Feb '21 64% 16% 19% +45 Dissatisfied Oct '20 66% 22% 12% +54

Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+, including SNP supporters (465), Conservative supporters (209), Labour supporters (142), 15-21 February 2021

16 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Who should be the next Scottish Labour leader? As you may know, the Scottish Labour Party is electing a new leader. Which of the following do you feel would make the best leader for Scottish Labour?

Anas Sarwar Don’t know Monica Lennon

Among all 28% 44% 25% Among Labour Party supporters 40% 25% 35% Among Conservative Party supporters 34% 40% 21% Among SNP supporters 26% 43% 29%

Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+, including Labour (142), Conservative (209) and SNP (465) supporters, 15-21 February 2021

17 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Impact of Alex Salmond inquiry on public views of the SNP Has the Scottish Parliament inquiry into how the Scottish Government handled accusations against Alex Salmond made you…?

Less favourable towards the SNP No difference either way More favourable

Among all

36% 58% 2%

Among those who voted SNP at the 2019 General Election

21% 73% 5%

Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+, including 2019 SNP voters (310), 15-21 February 2021

18 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Governments’ handling of the Coronavirus outbreak Overall, how well or badly do you think each of the following have handled the coronavirus outbreak so far?

Well Badly

The Scottish Government

67% 18%

The UK Government

30% 54%

Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+, 15-21 February 2021

19 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Governments’ handling of the vaccine rollout Do you think the Scottish Government/ UK Government has done a good job or bad job at…?

Good job Bad job

Ensuring the public are vaccinated as soon as possible

Scottish Government 78% 18%

UK Government 75% 17%

Making sure different groups of the population are vaccinated in the right order

Scottish Government 77% 18%

UK Government 72% 19%

Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+, 15-21 February 2021

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 21 Support for Scottish independence: February 2021

If a referendum were held tomorrow about Scotland's constitutional future, how would you vote in response to the following question: Should Scotland be an independent country?

Among all likely to vote All likely to vote and expressing a voting intention

7% Yes Yes

No No 48% 48% 52% 44% Undecided

Lead for “Yes”: +4% Lead for “Yes”: +4%

Base: All Scottish adults aged 16+ who are 9/10 or 10/10 likely to vote in a Scottish independence referendum (923); All Scottish adults 16+ who are 9/10 or 10/10 likely to vote in a Scottish independence referendum and expressing a voting intention (859) , 15-21 February 2021. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Support for Scottish independence: Change over time

If a referendum were held tomorrow about Scotland’s constitutional future, how would you vote in response to the following question: Should Scotland be an independent country?

February 2013 – February 2021 80% 2014 Scottish 2016 EU Independence Referendum Referendum 60% 52% Yes

40% 48% No

20%

0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Base: c.1,000 Scottish adults aged 16+ per wave. Based on all likely to vote, excluding undecideds/don’t knows Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

If the SNP wins a majority of seats in the 2021 Scottish Parliament elections, do you think the UK Government should or should not allow them to hold another independence referendum within the next five years?

Definitely should Probably should Probably should not Definitely should not

February 2021

43% 13% 7% 34%

October 2020

51% 12% 7% 27%

Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+, 15-21 February 2021

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public 24 What should happen if Accept that a referendum cannot be the UK Government held in the next 5 years, unless the 42% refuses to allow UK Government changes its mind another independence Take the UK Government to court to referendum? try and establish a legal basis for 34% holding a referendum If the SNP wins a majority of seats in May, but the UK Government Hold the referendum anyway, without refuses to allow another the consent of the UK Government 18% independence referendum, what do you think the Scottish Government should do? Should they…. Something else 2%

Don't know 3%

Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+, 15-21 February 2021

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public 25 What should happen if the UK Government 82% Accept that a referendum cannot be refuses to allow held in the next 5 years, unless the UK Government changes its mind another independence 9% referendum?

If the SNP wins a majority of seats 10% in May, but the UK Government Take the UK Government to court to refuses to allow another try and establish a legal basis for holding a referendum independence referendum, what 54% do you think the Scottish Government should do? Should they…. 4% Among “No” supporters Hold the referendum anyway, without the consent of the UK Government Among “Yes” supporters 33%

Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+, including “Yes” supporters (462) and “No” supporters (472), 15-21 February 2021

Ipsos MORI Scotland interviewed a representative sample of 1,031 adults aged 16+ across Scotland. Interviews were conducted by telephone: 15-21 February 2021. Data are weighted by age, sex, region, social grade, working status, tenure, education and country of birth to match the profile of the population.

Where percentages do not sum to 100 this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of “don’t know” categories, or multiple answers. An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less than half a per cent.

Questions are asked of the total sample of n=1,031 unless otherwise stated. Ipsos MORI

Scottish Political Monitor 2021

For more information

Emily Gray Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland [email protected]

Rachel Ormston Research Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland [email protected]

Cameron Garrett Senior Research Executive, Ipsos MORI [email protected]