IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH POLITICAL MONITOR February 2021 © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential VOTING INTENTION © Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential Holyrood Voting Intention: Constituency Vote How do you intend to use your first (constituency) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Headline voting intention All with a voting intention SNP 52% SNP 52% Conservative 23% Conservative 22% Labour 15% Labour 15% Lib Dems 5% Lib Dems 6% Green Party 3% Green Party 3% Other 2% Other 2% SNP lead = +29 SNP lead = +30 Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+,15-21 February 2021; Headline voting intention: all expressing a voting intention and 9 or 10/10 likely to vote (761); All with a voting intention: all expressing a voting Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor intention (907). Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. 3 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Holyrood Voting Intention: List Vote How do you intend to use your second (list) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? Headline voting intention All with a voting intention SNP 47% SNP 47% Conservative 22% Conservative 21% Labour 14% Labour 14% Green Party 8% Green Party 8% Lib Dems 6% Lib Dems 7% Other 3% Other 3% SNP lead = +25 SNP lead = +26 Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+, 15-21 February 2021; Headline voting intention: all expressing a voting intention and 9 or 10/10 likely to vote (767); All with a voting intention: all expressing a voting Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor intention (920). Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4%. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. 4 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Holyrood Voting Intention: Constituency Vote How do you intend to use your first (constituency) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? October 2020 – February 2021 75% February 2021 58% 55% 52% 50% SNP 23% Conservative 15% 22% 25% 19% Labour 13% 14% 5% Liberal Democrat 8% 6% 1% 3% 1% Green Party 0% Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Base: c. 800-900 Scottish adults aged 16+ per wave, expressing a voting intention and likely to vote. Latest wave: :15-21 February 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 5 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Holyrood Voting Intention: List Vote How do you intend to use your second (list) vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election? October 2020 – February 2021 75% February 2021 47% 47% 50% 47% SNP 22% Conservative 14% 22% Labour 25% 19% 16% 8% 13% Green Party 9% 7% 6% 8% Liberal Democrat 0% 6% Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Base: c. 800-900 Scottish adults aged 16+ per wave, expressing a voting intention and likely to vote. Latest wave: 15-21 February 2021. Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 6 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Constituency voting: Have you definitely decided who to vote for? Have you definitely decided to vote for the [NAME OF PARTY] on your constituency vote, or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Definitely decided May change my mind Among all expressing a voting intention 67% 31% Among all Conservative Party supporters 76% 21% Among all SNP supporters 73% 25% Among all Labour Party supporters 46% 53% Base: 849 Scottish adults 16+ giving a voting intention, including Conservative (189), SNP (446), Labour (122) supporters, 15-21 February 2021 7 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Constituency voting: Have you definitely decided who to vote for? Have you definitely decided to vote for the [NAME OF If you do change your mind about voting for this party on your PARTY] on your constituency vote, or is there a chance constituency vote, which party would you vote for instead? you may change your mind before you vote? Among all expressing a voting intention All giving a voting intention who “may change my mind” Labour 20% Definitely 2% SNP 12% decided Green Party 9% 31% Liberal Democrats 8% May change my mind Conservative 7% Independent candidate 2% Don’t None of them 2% 67% know Other 1% Undecided 39% Base: 849 Scottish adults 16+ giving a voting intention, 15-21 February 2021 Base: 265 Scottish adults 16+ giving a voting intention who may change their mind, 15-21 February 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Regional list voting: Have you definitely decided who to vote for? Have you definitely decided to vote for the [NAME OF PARTY] on your regional list vote, or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote? Definitely decided Don’t know May change my mind Among all expressing a voting intention 68% 31% Among all Conservative Party supporters 73% 23% Among all SNP supporters 73% 26% Among all Labour Party supporters 58% 41% Base: 880 Scottish adults 16+ giving a voting intention, including Conservative (196), SNP (449), Labour (132) 15-21 February 2021 9 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Regional list voting: Have you definitely decided who to vote for? Have you definitely decided to vote for the [NAME OF If you do change your mind about voting for this party on your PARTY] party on your regional list vote, or is there a regional list vote, which party would you vote for instead? chance you may change your mind before you vote? Among all expressing a voting intention All giving a voting intention who “may change my mind” Labour 20% Definitely 2% Scottish National Party (SNP) 11% decided Green Party 9% 31% Liberal Democrats 7% May change my mind Conservative 7% Action for Independence 1% Don’t Independent candidate 1% 68% know None of them 1% Undecided 44% Base: 880 Scottish adults 16+ giving a voting intention, 15-21 February 2021 Base: 277 Scottish adults 16+ giving a voting intention who may change their mind, 15-21 February 2021 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Which issues are Among all 9/10 likely to vote in the Scottish Parliamentary election going to help voters Scottish independence/ 44% decide which party to devolution vote for? Education 32% Looking ahead to the Scottish Parliamentary election, which, if Healthcare/ NHS 25% any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping Coronavirus 20% you decide which party to vote for? Only issues mentioned by 10% or more are Managing the economy 18% shown here. For the full list of issues, see the data tables on the Ipsos MORI website. BreXit/ EU 12% Environment/ climate change 12% Base: 834 Scottish adults 16+ at least 9/10 likely to vote, 15-21 February 2021 11 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Which issues are going to help decide which party to vote for in the Scottish Parliamentary election? Top five issues by party vote (among those at least 9/10 likely to vote) Looking ahead to the Scottish Parliamentary election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for? Among SNP supporters Among Conservative supporters Among Labour supporters Scottish independence/ devolution 48% 51% 39% Education 28% 35% 38% Coronavirus 25% 13% 20% Healthcare/ NHS 22% 24% 31% Managing the economy 15% 23% 17% Base: 834 Scottish adults 16+ at least 9/10 likely to vote, including SNP (395), Conservative (188) and Labour (122) supporters, 15-21 February 2021 12 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public PARTY LEADERS © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Holyrood 2021 Election Tracker | November 2020 | Public Net Satisfaction with Nicola Sturgeon Scottish party satisfied Feb '21 64%4% 32% +32 leaders Oct '20 72%4% 24% +48 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. Douglas Ross is doing his/her job… Feb '21 28% 32% 40% -12 as First Minister of Scotland/ leader of the Scottish Oct '20 22% 40% 39% -17 Conservative and Unionist Party/ the Scottish Liberal Willie Rennie Democrats/ co-leader of the Feb '21 35% 36% 29% +6 Scottish Green Party? Oct '20 29% 41% 30% -1 Satisfied Don’t know Patrick Harvie Feb '21 35% 42% 23% Dissatisfied +12 Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+, 15-21 February 2021 14 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Net Satisfaction with Boris Johnson leaders and satisfied opposition Feb '21 26% 5% 69% -43 Are you satisfied or Oct '20 19% 5% 76% -58 dissatisfied with the way… is doing his/her job… Nicola Sturgeon as Prime Minister/First Minister of Scotland/leader Feb '21 64%4% 32% +32 of the UK Labour Party? Oct '20 72% 4% 24% Satisfied +48 Don’t know Keir Starmer Dissatisfied Feb '21 38% 27% 35% +3 Oct '20 44% 29% 27% +16 Base: 1,031 Scottish adults 16+, 15-21 February 2021 15 © Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | February 2021 | Public Net Satisfaction with Nicola Sturgeon party leaders: satisfied Feb '21 95% 4% +91 Among own Oct '20 6% party supporters 93% +87 Douglas Ross Are you satisfied or Feb '21 dissatisfied with the way….