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Shipping Intelligence Weekly Shipping Intelligence Weekly Issue No. 835 29-Aug-2008 ISSN: 1358-8028 ClarkSea Index $34,174 The Atlantic Market This Week …… 55 50 $,000/day 45 Capesize: Weaker Panamax: Steady Handy: Softer 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Jan-08 Jan-07 Jan-06 Jan-05 Jan-04 Jan-03 Sep-07 Sep-06 Sep-05 Sep-04 Sep-03 Sep-02 May-08 May-07 May-06 May-05 May-04 May-03 Highlights VLCC Market Confidence returned to the MEG, with some rates rising WS30…..p.2 Suezmax Market Rates firmed in both markets, led by the WAF market…………….p.2 Aframax Market Rates remained relatively steady in the Black Sea/Med market……..p.2 Products Market Dirty products average earnings Selection of ports covered by the various market sectors in this report weakened this week….....……...p.3 Capesize Market The Pacific Market This Week …… The Capesize market continued its downward trend………………..p.4 Capesize: Weaker Panamax: Softer Handy: Steady Panamax Market The Panamax market had a quiet week with rates slightly down….p.4 Handymax Market The Handymax market remained steady………………………...…p.5 S & P Market Grand Union has arranged a reverse merger involving the sale of twenty dry bulk vessels to a Canadian IPO buyer..…………………………..p.i Newbuilding This summer has been subdued, with containership activity being particularly quiet...…………....p.10 Demolition Prices for recently concluded deals declined further to approximately $700/ldt…………………....….p.11 Crude Tanker Spot Market Crude Tanker Spot Earnings ($,000's/day) Crude Tanker Highlights • 240 VLCCs: The MEG has seen the long-awaited return of confidence, 220 with rates rising by more than WS30 on some routes over 200 the last few days. The Atlantic market has also 180 VLCC strengthened somewhat, buoyed by a firmer Suezmax Suezmax market. But, with a US holiday this coming Monday, next 160 Aframax week may see the market slow. Overall, average VLCC 140 earnings strengthened by 102% w-o-w to $47,252/day. 120 • Suezmaxes: Rates firmed in both markets this week, possibly as a result 100 of fears of the potential disruption that could be caused by 80 tropical storm Gustav, with rates in the WAF market 60 leading the charge. Overall, average earnings rose to 40 $64,008/day, up by 57% w-o-w. • Aframaxes: 20 Although rates in the Baltic market were subdued and even slipped marginally, rates remained steadier in the Black Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sea/Med market as an influx of enquiry allowed owners to '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 sustain rates at fairly constant levels. VLCC Single WS 2008 Average earnings $ per day VLCC Earnings Voyage..... Aug 22 Aug 29 2008 2006 2007 2008 Aug 22 Aug 29 This Week .... 2 280,000t Gulf - Europe 68 83 110 52,652 44,805 82,489 25,859 40,740 FIRMER 58% 2 280,000t Gulf - US Gulf * 68 83 110 50,599 43,986 80,502 23,840 38,710 FIRMER 62% 2 265,000t Gulf - Japan * 68 95 154 63,599 63,691 121,756 16,714 44,777 FIRMER 168% 2 265,000t Gulf - S.Korea * 68 95 154 60,809 61,778 117,365 17,120 44,372 FIRMER 159% 2 270,000t Gulf - Sing 68 100 158 64,796 64,827 123,967 17,147 49,781 FIRMER 190% 2 280,000t Gulf - Red Sea 68 100 165 69,404 70,143 133,589 19,065 51,987 FIRMER 173% 2 260,000t WAF - East * 68 90 129 55,203 50,286 92,098 19,251 41,337 FIRMER 115% 2 260,000t WAF - US Gulf * 88 115 148 71,234 55,155 109,670 40,162 67,065 FIRMER 67% 2 280,000t Med - UKC 95 125 155 89,805 70,271 136,509 62,452 94,796 FIRMER 52% 2 260,000t WAF - WC India^ 3.50 3.75 6.30 62,749 53,103 94,898 26,574 29,761 FIRMER 12% 2 VLCC Ave. Earnings * 60,289 54,979 104,278 23,417 47,252 FIRMER 102% ^ WAF - WC India route quoted in WS until 11-Aug-06; quoted as a lump-sum figure thereafter (in $ million). Suezmax Single WS 2008 Average earnings $ per day Suezmax Earnings Voyage..... Aug 22 Aug 29 2008 2006 2007 2008 Aug 22 Aug 29 This Week .... 4 130,000t Gulf - S.China 150 160 176 41,224 38,781 60,634 40,612 44,158 FIRMER 9% 4 130,000t WAF - USAC * 140 183 194 47,370 39,175 69,421 35,638 57,750 FIRMER 62% 4 130,000t WAF - Med 140 183 196 70,125 46,722 82,382 43,970 68,849 FIRMER 57% 4 130,000t Med - Med * 135 175 208 58,315 49,110 95,835 45,721 70,266 FIRMER 54% 4 Suezmax Ave. Earnings * 52,843 44,142 82,628 40,679 64,008 FIRMER 57% Aframax Single WS 2008 Average earnings $ per day Aframax Earnings Voyage..... Aug 22 Aug 29 2008 2006 2007 2008 Aug 22 Aug 29 This Week .... 680,000t Gulf - East * 183 170 210 32,193 29,654 38,913 25,834 20,290 WEAKER -21% 680,000t Med - Med * 220 205 225 34,097 31,685 55,358 51,178 44,343 WEAKER -13% 680,000t Med - USAC 215 225 225 39,199 35,821 52,165 44,473 47,081 FIRM.... 6% 680,000t UKC - UKC * 250 170 198 43,829 39,706 73,941 104,074 55,173 WEAKER!! -47% 680,000t UKC - USAC 255 210 224 40,414 35,733 51,431 59,501 41,936 WEAKER!! -30% 680,000t UKC - Med 240 165 189 33,853 27,801 42,324 59,372 28,559 WEAKER!! -52% 680,000t Indo - Japan * 185 180 205 34,395 29,493 39,563 28,950 25,471 WEAKER -12% 670,000t Carib - US Gulf * 163 255 216 27,600 22,455 34,408 15,895 41,518 FIRMER 161% 680,000t Black Sea - Med * 230 230 233 58,029 45,812 73,419 69,547 68,212 STEADY -2% 6 Aframax Ave. Earnings * 38,357 33,134 52,600 49,246 42,501 WEAKER -14% Note: In June 2008, all tanker earnings since start 2004 were re-evaluated on the basis of revised voyage calculations; "Earnings" are timecharter equivalents of spot freight rates (see footnote on page 4); */# Indicates constituent routes of "Average Earnings" for each sector since start 2004. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Clarkson Research Services Page 2 29-Aug-08 Product Tanker Spot Market Product Tanker Spot Earnings ($,000's/day) Product Tanker Highlights 65 • Clean Products Tight tonnage in the Middle East has kept rates there firm 60 Dirty Clean - MR despite fewer cargoes becoming available. LR1 rates are 55 Clean - Handy looking slightly softer, with vessels willing to ballast from 50 the West to pick up West Coast Indian or even MEG cargoes. Overall, ‘MR’ average earnings weakened by 45 10% w-o-w to $28,458/day, whilst ‘Handysize’ earnings 40 firmed by 14% w-o-w to $24,965/day. 35 • 30 Dirty Products Panamaxes had a very slow start to the week. Rates in the 25 Caribs softened, and the Europe/TA market was 20 completely inactive. However, mid-week vessels were 15 fixed at WS262, and since then there has been more enquiry in the market. Vessels are generally being fixed 10 between WS260 and WS265. Most vessels are being fixed 5 and as a consequence, higher rates should be seen next Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul week. However, average dirty earnings this week '06 '06 '07 '07 '07 '07 '07 '07 '08 '08 '08 '08 weakened 11% w-o-w to $34,350. Clean Product WS 2008 Average earnings $ per day Clean Earnings Single Voyage... Aug 22 Aug 29 2008 2006 2007 2008 Aug 22 Aug 29 This Week .... 875,000t Gulf - Japan 350 350 212 31,851 23,704 35,368 73,639 71,918 STEADY -2% 955,000t Gulf - Japan 385 365 243 28,253 24,194 30,275 59,559 53,358 WEAKER -10% 13 35,000t Gulf - Japan * 360 360 297 25,467 22,930 22,326 28,329 27,239 SOFTER -4% 13 35,000t Gulf - E.Africa * 490 460 330 28,053 27,401 29,027 47,941 42,936 WEAKER -10% 13 37,000t UKC - USAC * 335 310 296 27,626 28,810 27,809 31,628 27,270 WEAKER -14% 13 38,000t Caribs - USAC * 308 290 298 30,330 28,820 30,474 30,072 26,852 WEAKER -11% 13 30,000t Sing - Japan * 330 325 234 18,748 14,116 10,439 20,150 18,443 WEAKER -8% 14 30,000t Med - USAC # 310 340 301 21,749 23,231 22,093 21,029 24,312 FIRMER 16% 14 30,000t Med - UKC # 260 295 259 21,449 22,467 20,228 18,504 22,663 FIRMER 22% 14 30,000t Med - Med 260 280 265 35,785 36,313 36,493 35,228 39,359 FIRMER 12% 14 30,000t Black Sea - Med 250 290 255 28,821 27,571 27,077 24,647 31,053 FIRMER 26% 14 30,000t Baltic - UKC # 280 295 250 22,212 21,538 21,575 25,914 27,921 FIRM.... 8% 14 30,000t UKC - UKC § 275 295 279 New timeseries 35,811 40,225 FIRMER 12% Clean 'MR' Ave.
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