CONFIDENTIAL— NGO use only No copy, forward or sale © INSO 2011 Issue 91 REPORT 1‐15 February 2012 Index COUNTRY SUMMARY Central Region 1-3 As January concluded with armed opposi- providing significant portions of present 4-7 Northern Region tion attributed incident volumes below incident volumes (see graphic p. 15). Western Region 8-9 trending expectations, the first half of Feb- The noted shift in dynamics for the con- ruary indicates that this month is set to flict has also proven to extend into the Eastern Region 10-13 follow. While this month typically accounts NGO incident realm. 2011 concluded with for slightly lower volumes than January, at Southern Region 14-17 the attribution of incidents at a roughly mid-month the level is 70% lower than the ANSO Info Page 18 60/30 split, with the armed opposition af- Jan total and 76% lower than February fording the larger portion. At the time of 2011 (see chart below). The opening writing, there has been a near reversal of months of this year are suggestive that the this, with criminal events affecting the HIGHLIGHTS consistent and considerable growth rates community at a much higher rate than pre- recorded since the conflicts inception have vious (see graphic p. 15). While the data Lower than average plateaued, with the possibility that it is now sample size (9 incidents) and timeframe is AOG incident vol- entering a period of retraction. Having said umes admittedly limited, what can be discerned that, many regions have noted that the is that the ‘slashed tire scam’ remains a cen- harsh climatic conditions being experi- Activity levels high- tral, and successful, criminal tactic which enced this winter, when coupled with on- est in East has now diffused beyond Kabul, as noted going withdrawal/transition plans by secu- with the recent incident affecting an IO in rity forces, may be key factors driving this Criminal events af- Herat. There were also two abductions fecting NGOs dynamic. It is likely that a true evaluation involving NGO national staff members of combatant capacity and will shall be af- this period. In what is presently assessed forded only come the spring. as a criminal event, 2 staff were detained Further to this, geographic distribution of for 5 days in Faryab, though the exact im- combatant activity is also demonstrating a petus in this incident remains unclear. The ANSO is supported by significant shift in favour of the Eastern second, which is attributed to an AOG, Region at present. While suicide attacks was reported from the volatile Zhari Dis- still factor heavily in the South, overall inci- trict of Kandahar, marking the Southern dent volumes are well below the norm, Regions first NGO incident reported thus with such provinces as Kunar and Khost far for 2012. AOG Attack Rate ‐ Jan/Feb Comparison 900 800 700 600 January 500 February 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ANSO is a project of the International NGO Safety Organisation (INSO), a registered charity in England & Wales no.1140276 and a company limited by guarantee no.7496737 THE ANSO REPORT Page 1 C ENTRAL REGION NGO Incidents KABUL K ABUL Year to Date 3 50 This Report Period 2 Whilst media and the aid commu- 40 nity focused on dire conditions A bold burglary was also recorded 30 nd inside the 40 plus informal settle- in Kolola Pushta, PD 4, on the 2 20 ments in Kabul; attention which when an individual pretending to 10 be a plumber presented himself at sparked an influx of winter assis- 0 tance into this underserviced seg- the door of a private residence ment of the urban population, occupied by an expatriate advisor criminality came to the fore in to a GOA ministry. Assuming KABUL AOG KABUL Crime other parts of Kabul City and in- that the worker was sent to check cluded two NGO incidents. water-pipes in the house, the ex- pat allowed the individual in and months although the activity actually peaks in On the 31st of January, an INGO walked him towards the bath- the summer months which currently stand at reported a case of the ‘slashed room. The ‘plumber’ managed to 40% of the reported cases. tyre’ scheme in down-town Kabul secure the bathroom door behind In Kabul City and in Shakardara, 5 instances of between Wazir Akbar Khan and his host, blocking her inside, criminal violent disputes incl. shootings and Abdul Haq Square. Out of 53 snatched a purse with valuables stabbings completed the criminal record. In direct & successful criminal at- from the next room and ran away. Deh Sabz, unidentified attackers threw acid tacks on NGOs in Kabul city Anecdotal evidence suggests that into the face of a local journalist employed since 2006, 13 cases pertained to home robberies have become a with a media agency, an incident which is yet the flat tyre scheme alone. Of more common occurrence in the to be assessed. In Qarabagh, ANP arrested a note, current trending demon- recent weeks. Harsh weather con- husband accused of assaulting and causing strates a noticeable shift from ran- ditions and the increased cost of burn injuries to his wife. ANSF indeed domi- dom attacks on high-profile vehi- living weighs heavily on low and nated this period authoring over 70% of re- cles towards a more deliberate middle-income households, even- ported incidents. On 8 occasions, ANSF tar- focus on clients of financial insti- tually prompting a wider range of geted criminal gangs or individual crime sus- tutions and offices (banks, ex- individuals to engage in criminal pects, including the case of a weapons smug- change and hawala offices, jewel- activity. Crime statistics provide gler arrested in Doghabad Area of PD 7 and lery shops) whereas the territorial only a partial picture of the actual accused of stealing weaponry from IMF for re- distribution also newly encom- volume, a fact that has to do sale to organized crime. An additional 5 nar- passes other regional centers; mainly with the victims’ reluc- cotics-related arrests were reported from Ka- Mazar-e Sharif and Herat for in- tance to report to the authorities. bul City whilst 3 conflict-related arrests of sus- stance. It is reasonable to assume Lack of trust in law enforcement pected AOG members were reported from PD that criminal rings are actually able and justice structures, as well as 5 (Khushal Khan), Paghman (Khawaja Jam) to place informants either directly the ANP reputation for pressuriz- and Surobi (Tapa Khan). The arrest in Surobi inside or in the immediate vicinity ing the actual victims of crimes saw ANP and IMF apprehend an ANP officer of the banks, a feature to be ad- during investigation are usually with suspected ties to AOG during a night- dressed in NGO’s movement and put forward as the major reasons time raid in his residence. Also in Surobi, an cash-handling protocols. Later, why crime goes under-reported. RCIED collected by ANP from the Eshpulb- on the 12th of February, an INGO Of note, the documented volumes aba section of the highway remained the sole reported a night-time break into of home robberies in the capital manifestation of intentional AOG activity this its training site in PD 7 during have progressively decreased since period. While IED placement on the highway which an unidentified group of the last six years. Three times less remains an outlier the timing of the discovery burglars attempted to steal a piece cases were recorded in 2011 com- (1400 hrs) warrants against complacency. of machinery. The attempt failed pared to 2006. Nearly 30% of the but the perpetrators damaged the cases occurred during the winter item in process. THE ANSO REPORT Page 2 NGO Incidents KAPISA K APISA Year to Date 0 50 This Report Period 0 40 The incident volumes fell by a half compared to the previous the strike received considerable 30 cycle with AOG attacks alone publicity and prompted a whole 20 dropping from 15 to 6 cases. Yet, range of IMF and GOA institu- 10 tional players to run independent the engagements remained lethal 0 on both sides and once again took probes into the incident. In Chu- a particularly heavy toll amongst rakhel, a locality in the Ishpi Val- civilians. The conflict dynamics in ley of Alasay, another IMF air- Kapisa stand in sharp contrast to strike was on the mark and killed KAPISA AOG KAPISA Crime the winter respite in the rest of two AOG fighters including a an additional three young men. Paradoxically, the Central Region. commander. the remaining 4 AOG strikes, all staged against th Yet, civilians were also impacted On the 7 , IMF commandos de- ANP infrastructure in Tagab, did not result in in AOG attacks. Once again in ployed to carry out a cordon and any further casualties. The pro-active ap- the Afghaniya Valley of Nijrab, an search operation in Geyawe Pay- proach on both sides of the conflict feeds into RCIED detonated against a civil- een in the Afghaniya Valley in an ever escalating spiral of violence, a point for ian vehicle on the 1st, killing one Nijrab. At the sight of IMF ap- the NGOs to factor into their operations in and injuring five. On the 7th, proaching, a group of seven chil- Nijrab, Tagab and Alasay throughout the year. AOG set an ambush on the Ta- dren and a young adult attempted With the exception of the provincial capital, gab – Alasay road in Tatarkhel to run away from the outskirts of which has at times attracted AOG spectacular presumably in an attempt to en- the village where they were herd- attacks, AOG overt activity in the north- gage local ALP units known to ing cattle.