THE ANSO REPORT Page 1

CONFIDENTIAL— NGO use only No copy, forward or sale © INSO 2011

Issue 91 REPORT 1‐15 February 2012 Index COUNTRY SUMMARY Central Region 1-3 As January concluded with armed opposi- providing significant portions of present 4-7 Northern Region tion attributed incident volumes below incident volumes (see graphic p. 15). Western Region 8-9 trending expectations, the first half of Feb- The noted shift in dynamics for the con- ruary indicates that this month is set to flict has also proven to extend into the Eastern Region 10-13 follow. While this month typically accounts NGO incident realm. 2011 concluded with for slightly lower volumes than January, at Southern Region 14-17 the attribution of incidents at a roughly mid-month the level is 70% lower than the ANSO Info Page 18 60/30 split, with the armed opposition af- Jan total and 76% lower than February fording the larger portion. At the time of 2011 (see chart below). The opening writing, there has been a near reversal of months of this year are suggestive that the this, with criminal events affecting the HIGHLIGHTS consistent and considerable growth rates community at a much higher rate than pre- recorded since the conflicts inception have vious (see graphic p. 15). While the data  Lower than average plateaued, with the possibility that it is now sample size (9 incidents) and timeframe is AOG incident vol- entering a period of retraction. Having said umes admittedly limited, what can be discerned that, many regions have noted that the is that the ‘slashed tire scam’ remains a cen- harsh climatic conditions being experi-  Activity levels high- tral, and successful, criminal tactic which enced this winter, when coupled with on- est in East has now diffused beyond Kabul, as noted going withdrawal/transition plans by secu- with the recent incident affecting an IO in rity forces, may be key factors driving this  Criminal events af- Herat. There were also two abductions fecting NGOs dynamic. It is likely that a true evaluation involving NGO national staff members of combatant capacity and will shall be af- this period. In what is presently assessed forded only come the spring. as a criminal event, 2 staff were detained Further to this, geographic distribution of for 5 days in Faryab, though the exact im- combatant activity is also demonstrating a petus in this incident remains unclear. The ANSO is supported by significant shift in favour of the Eastern second, which is attributed to an AOG, Region at present. While suicide attacks was reported from the volatile Zhari Dis- still factor heavily in the South, overall inci- trict of Kandahar, marking the Southern dent volumes are well below the norm, Regions first NGO incident reported thus with such provinces as Kunar and Khost far for 2012.

AOG Attack Rate ‐ Jan/Feb Comparison

900

800

700

600 January 500 February 400

300

200

100

0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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C ENTRAL REGION

NGO Incidents KABUL K ABUL Year to Date 3 50 This Report Period 2 Whilst media and the aid commu- 40 nity focused on dire conditions A bold burglary was also recorded 30 nd inside the 40 plus informal settle- in Kolola Pushta, PD 4, on the 2 20 ments in Kabul; attention which when an individual pretending to 10 be a plumber presented himself at sparked an influx of winter assis- 0 tance into this underserviced seg- the door of a private residence ment of the urban population, occupied by an expatriate advisor criminality came to the fore in to a GOA ministry. Assuming KABUL AOG KABUL Crime other parts of Kabul City and in- that the worker was sent to check cluded two NGO incidents. water-pipes in the house, the ex- pat allowed the individual in and months although the activity actually peaks in On the 31st of January, an INGO walked him towards the bath- the summer months which currently stand at reported a case of the ‘slashed room. The ‘plumber’ managed to 40% of the reported cases. tyre’ scheme in down-town Kabul secure the bathroom door behind In Kabul City and in Shakardara, 5 instances of between Wazir Akbar Khan and his host, blocking her inside, criminal violent disputes incl. shootings and Abdul Haq Square. Out of 53 snatched a purse with valuables stabbings completed the criminal record. In direct & successful criminal at- from the next room and ran away. Deh Sabz, unidentified attackers threw acid tacks on NGOs in Kabul city Anecdotal evidence suggests that into the face of a local journalist employed since 2006, 13 cases pertained to home robberies have become a with a media agency, an incident which is yet the flat tyre scheme alone. Of more common occurrence in the to be assessed. In Qarabagh, ANP arrested a note, current trending demon- recent weeks. Harsh weather con- husband accused of assaulting and causing strates a noticeable shift from ran- ditions and the increased cost of burn injuries to his wife. ANSF indeed domi- dom attacks on high-profile vehi- living weighs heavily on low and nated this period authoring over 70% of re- cles towards a more deliberate middle-income households, even- ported incidents. On 8 occasions, ANSF tar- focus on clients of financial insti- tually prompting a wider range of geted criminal gangs or individual crime sus- tutions and offices (banks, ex- individuals to engage in criminal pects, including the case of a weapons smug- change and hawala offices, jewel- activity. Crime statistics provide gler arrested in Doghabad Area of PD 7 and lery shops) whereas the territorial only a partial picture of the actual accused of stealing weaponry from IMF for re- distribution also newly encom- volume, a fact that has to do sale to organized crime. An additional 5 nar- passes other regional centers; mainly with the victims’ reluc- cotics-related arrests were reported from Ka- Mazar-e Sharif and Herat for in- tance to report to the authorities. bul City whilst 3 conflict-related arrests of sus- stance. It is reasonable to assume Lack of trust in law enforcement pected AOG members were reported from PD that criminal rings are actually able and justice structures, as well as 5 (Khushal Khan), Paghman (Khawaja Jam) to place informants either directly the ANP reputation for pressuriz- and Surobi (Tapa Khan). The arrest in Surobi inside or in the immediate vicinity ing the actual victims of crimes saw ANP and IMF apprehend an ANP officer of the banks, a feature to be ad- during investigation are usually with suspected ties to AOG during a night- dressed in NGO’s movement and put forward as the major reasons time raid in his residence. Also in Surobi, an cash-handling protocols. Later, why crime goes under-reported. RCIED collected by ANP from the Eshpulb- on the 12th of February, an INGO Of note, the documented volumes aba section of the highway remained the sole reported a night-time break into of home robberies in the capital manifestation of intentional AOG activity this its training site in PD 7 during have progressively decreased since period. While IED placement on the highway which an unidentified group of the last six years. Three times less remains an outlier the timing of the discovery burglars attempted to steal a piece cases were recorded in 2011 com- (1400 hrs) warrants against complacency. of machinery. The attempt failed pared to 2006. Nearly 30% of the but the perpetrators damaged the cases occurred during the winter item in process. THE ANSO REPORT Page 2

NGO Incidents KAPISA K APISA Year to Date 0 50

This Report Period 0 40 The incident volumes fell by a half compared to the previous the strike received considerable 30 cycle with AOG attacks alone publicity and prompted a whole 20 dropping from 15 to 6 cases. Yet, range of IMF and GOA institu- 10 tional players to run independent the engagements remained lethal 0 on both sides and once again took probes into the incident. In Chu- a particularly heavy toll amongst rakhel, a locality in the Ishpi Val- civilians. The conflict dynamics in ley of Alasay, another IMF air- Kapisa stand in sharp contrast to strike was on the mark and killed KAPISA AOG KAPISA Crime the winter respite in the rest of two AOG fighters including a an additional three young men. Paradoxically, the Central Region. commander. the remaining 4 AOG strikes, all staged against th Yet, civilians were also impacted On the 7 , IMF commandos de- ANP infrastructure in Tagab, did not result in in AOG attacks. Once again in ployed to carry out a cordon and any further casualties. The pro-active ap- the Afghaniya Valley of Nijrab, an search operation in Geyawe Pay- proach on both sides of the conflict feeds into RCIED detonated against a civil- een in the Afghaniya Valley in an ever escalating spiral of violence, a point for ian vehicle on the 1st, killing one Nijrab. At the sight of IMF ap- the NGOs to factor into their operations in and injuring five. On the 7th, proaching, a group of seven chil- Nijrab, Tagab and Alasay throughout the year. AOG set an ambush on the Ta- dren and a young adult attempted With the exception of the provincial capital, gab – Alasay road in Tatarkhel to run away from the outskirts of which has at times attracted AOG spectacular presumably in an attempt to en- the village where they were herd- attacks, AOG overt activity in the north- gage local ALP units known to ing cattle. They were mistakenly western districts remains limited, though prec- move around in unmarked Toyota taken for combatants, engaged edents do exist and include a recent record of Corollas. Instead, the fighters from the air and killed. Feeding NGO casualties. Stand-off tactics, including engaged a civilian vehicle, killing into the current debate on the US- random IED deployment on the roads, remain the driver and causing injuries to Afghanistan strategic agreement, the main conflict manifestation there.

NGO Incidents WARDAK W ARDAK Year to Date 0 50 This Report Period 0 40 Though February typically de- notes the lowest levels of AOG bad. Three days later, a joint 30 activity throughout the year, the IMF-ANP night raid led to the 20 capture of two AOG members in fact that this cycle passed without 10 Kote Ashru, a reputed hub of an AOG strike is quite unusual. 0 In total, AOG activity reverted to AOG sympathizers. Since the last four IED attempts interdicted by 12 months, this particular locality witnessed seven IMF and ANSF ANP and IMF in Chaki Wardak WARDAK AOG WARDAK Crime and Saydabad. The actual lack of arrest operations or weapons sei- zures whilst AOG networks en- AOG initiative is best explained A point is to be made for the overland access gaged the security forces on four by the combination of bad weath- from Maydan Shahr to the Behsuds and on- different occasions with IDF and er, the on-going ‘rest & recreation’ wards to Panjab, by extension also the only SAF. The recent appointment of period , as well as continued access road to Daykundi from Kabul. Besides an IEA commander from Kanda- ANSF-IMF pressure along the snow and ice on the road, increased risks of har to take over the role of the critical infrastructure. The latest avalanches have been reported from at least Provincial Shadow Governor as, factor is perhaps the least decisive three different sections including Sare Tala, well as the first signs of AOG as for instance this cycle even Mangul Qul (Behsud Awal) and Pushte Daha- mobilization (including an influx ANSF-IMF operations remained ne Awodila in Behsud Markaz where ava- of external fighters and local re- low-key. On the 11th, an IMF lanches did occur in the past. NGOs will ben- cruitment efforts) will likely re- patrol shot and killed two AOG efit from re-assessing the road conditions prior verse the current calm in the com- operatives emplacing an IED on to undertaking travels or using public transpor- ing weeks. the highway in Qalai Aziz, Sayda- tation along this itinerary. THE ANSO REPORT Page 3

NGO Incidents DAYKUNDI D AYKUNDI Year to Date 0 50

This Report Period 0 40 Bad weather and precarious road conditions continued to hamper ents had actually left the vehicles 30 for a break in a road-side road access. In the most flagrant 20 case, an avalanche buried a con- chaikhana. Whilst there is a con- 10 voy of five mini-vans in the Gurbi sensus as to the fact that the on- section of the main road leading going harsh winter amplifies local 0 up to the Qunakh Pass between needs for humanitarian assistance, Miramor and Waras. Five local the NGO community denoted drivers perished in the accident quite a manipulative stance of the DAYKUNDI AOG DAYKUNDI Crime while an additional two individu- provincial authorities, at times als were evacuated with injuries. pressurizing individual agencies to absorbed 12 out of 16 AOG-initiated escala- The toll could have been substan- allocate ad hoc resources into are- tions in the province, the majority impacting tially higher were there passengers as prioritized by the government. the road network along the district borders aboard the vehicles at the time of In Kajran, IMF killed three and with Helmand and Urozghan. AOG activity the accident. Awaiting a snow- injured four AOG members dur- there follows the migration flows in and out clearance gang to re-open the ing an engagement in the Chahar from the battlefields in the South and similar road after heavy snowfall, the cli- Chelah Area. Last year, Kajran dynamics may be expected throughout 2012.

NGO Incidents P ARWAN Year to Date 0 PARWAN 50 This Report Period 0 Besides prolonged traffic disrup- 40 tions and the extant risk of ava- bekistan affiliates transiting from 30 the North-East via Salang but the lanches in the Salang Pass, report- 20 actual report has not been corrob- ing from Parwan reverted to a 10 handful of conflict-related arrests. orated by independent sources. 0 In Chaharikar, NDS arrested a From the Bagram Airfield Base, cleric active in one of the IMF reported the arrests of two mosques in the downtown whose Afghan interpreters for suspected PARWAN AOG PARWAN Crime family ties extend to the Ushtor collusion with AOG. The future Area in Shinwari. An additional of IMF detention facility in already been transferred to GOA-controlled AOG suspect was detained during Bagram came to the fore as GOA prison in Puli Charkhi. IMF detention facili- the operation. NDS also released required the premises be handed ties are indeed a hotly debated point within the information about the arrest of a over to domestic custody by the on-going negotiations on the US-GOA strate- cell of Islamic Movement of Uz- end of March. It appears that a number of Bagram inmates have gic agreement.

NGO Incidents L OGAR Year to Date 0 LOGAR This Report Period 0 50 Armed opposition authored two targeted a water-supply tanker en 40 out of seven incidents this cycle. 30 Despite low volumes, two features route from the IMF base in Puli 20 of significance could be discerned. Alam District Center. The attack In the first place, both AOG at- initiated with a ‘Molotov cocktail’ 10 tacks targeted unarmed civilian and continued with SAF which 0 contractors linked to ANSF and caused injuries to the driver. A IMF. On the 12th, AOG executed series of three conflict-related a local tailor in Qalai Naw, arrests by ANSF/IMF in Puli LOGAR AOG LOGAR Crime Charkh with the victim known to Alam preceded the AOG attack periphery back to the main population centers provide and repair uniforms for and denoted an gradual return of and along key infrastructure. ANA. On the 15th, an AOG unit conflict engagements from the THE ANSO REPORT Page 4

N ORTHERN REGION

NGO Incidents S AR- E PUL Year to Date 0 SAR‐E PUL 50 This Report Period 0 Sar-e Pul witnessed an active re- 40 porting period, highlighted by main high as the anti-PG group 30 continued civil unrest initiated by waits for a response to their com- 20 the group bent on the removal of plaints from Kabul. The situation 10 the Provincial Governor (PG). is a difficult one, as both parties 0 After setting up tents outside of (the PG and the anti-PG group) the PG’s office on the 4th, the have support from influential in- SAR‐E PUL AOG SAR‐E PUL Crime anti-PG group demonstrated on dividuals, and while the govern- the 5th, eventually rushing the ment seems unable to keep the the abduction of 3 telecommunication workers PG’s office as the ANP fired PG in position due to the poten- along the main Sar-e Pul - Shibirghan road on warning shots. The group briefly tial for more violence, it may also the 1st, and the ambush of an ANP patrol on occupied the structure amidst be unwilling to remove him, as the 12th (which resulted in the stealing of an demonstration violence that left 1- other groups might accept this as ANP Ranger). Also of interest, IMF shot and 2 dead, and an additional 4-9 in- a precedent to use violence to get killed one of their own privately hired gate jured. Following this, numerous other PGs removed (plus the PG guards at their HQ in Sar-e Pul on the 3rd, but meetings were held as demonstra- has at least one strong supporter this appears not to have effected the commu- tion leadership met with govern- in the President’s inner circle). nity thus far due to pro-active efforts by IMF ment officials from the province The situation remains ongoing. with his family, and because the individual was and Kabul to air complaints about Outside of this, Sar-e Pul District an independently hired security guard—not the PG and the demonstration witnessed a number of other sig- ANP/ANSF—who was also reportedly not violence. Although stores reo- nificant incidents including in- from the area. pened on the 13th, tensions re- creased AOG activity resulting in

NGO Incidents T AKHAR Year to Date 0 TAKHAR This Report Period 0 50 Takhar was mostly quiet this re- 40 porting period, recording only 5 as originally scheduled. 30 security incidents. Despite this, Otherwise, the most significant 20 the transition ceremony— incident was a land dispute that 10 originally scheduled for the PRP, got violent in Warsaj District on 0 and then moved to February the 14th. Reporting from the area 13th—did not occur as planned. suggests that 2 groups were TAKHAR AOG TAKHAR Crime The ceremony—marking the tran- fighting when the ANP arrived to sition of the responsibility for se- attempt to control the situation. records security incidents of any type—with curity from IMF to the GOA Although still unconfirmed by the only 1 security incident prior to this in the last (ANSF)—was originally sched- GOA, multiple sources suggest year (the arrest of a suspected AOG member uled for the end of January before that the ANP then proceeded to in June 2011)—and although land disputes are it was temporarily postponed due shoot into the crowd (others relatively common, one resulting in excessive to weather conditions and possi- claim the ANP only fired warning violence between the ANP and those involved bly security concerns (as a truck shots) and the crowd turned on (such as this one did) are rarely reported in the carrying explosives was discov- them, leaving 1-2 dead and 7-8 North. At this time the exact events remain ered en route into Taluqan at the (including 1 ANP) injured. An unclear, but tensions remain relatively high, end of the PRP). No new date investigation into the exact cir- and until they return to normal, this may result has surfaced as of the writing of cumstances remains ongoing. in a short term shift to the security paradigm. this report, but the transition is This is notable, as Warsaj rarely expected to take place this phase THE ANSO REPORT Page 5

NGO Incidents F ARYAB Year to Date 1 FARYAB This Report Period 1 50 Although Faryab recorded a rela- 40 tively consistent volume of securi- orded NGO abduction for the 30 ty incidents—13 this period as entire North (which marks a sig- 20 opposed to 15 the previous one— nificantly decreased volume for 10 the first NGO direct incident in the region compared to the prior 0 the North occurred there on the year), but marked an increase last day of the PRP when 2 NGO within the province itself when staff members were abducted on compared to 2010 (which saw FARYAB AOG FARYAB Crime only 5). This was accentuated by the 31st of January from along the ment and another ANP policeman. main Andkhoy – Maymana road. the fact that most of them took The abduction occurred at ap- place late in the year, with the last Otherwise, most incident reporting remained proximately 1200 hours (as the 2 3 occurring between October 30th in the “southern cradle” of the province, with were moving to Andkoy for and November 3rd, and one of 3 incidents recorded in Qaysar, and 3 in Almar lunch), with both staff members those resulting the deaths of 2 of (and only 1 in Pashtun Kot). Although the being subsequently released on those abducted. Although it has incidents in Almar were notable in that they the 4th due to interventions con- been previously noted that AOGs involved IED discoveries in 2 of them, ducted by local elders (conflicting had been pushed towards Dawlat- Qaysar’s level of activity actually represented a reports exist as to the exact cir- abad and Qaramqol districts, fur- relative lull, as all 3 happened in Naghara cumstances around their abduc- ther time and assessment will be Khana village, with 2 of them taking place on tion and release). The incident needed to see if the most current the 7th, and none of them involving an IED was especially notable in that it incident was an outlier. Howev- detonation (although one of those on the 7th marked the first NGO abduction er, of further interest, a second involved the discovery of an IED). That being in the northern districts of Faryab incident occurred along this said, incident reporting in these southern dis- since August 2010, despite the stretch of road at 1000 hours on tricts is expected to remain active for the im- fact that Faryab witnessed 6 NGO the 9th, when an AOG ambushed mediate future and even increase with the abductions in 2011. The 6 inci- an ANP vehicle killing the Deputy coming spring (“fighting season”). dents in 2011 included every rec- Chief of the Intelligence Depart-

NGO Incidents B AGHLAN Year to Date 0 BAGHLAN This Report Period 0 50 Despite a statistically significant 40 drop in overall security reporting been suggested as the likely actual 30 (Baghlan recorded only 9 security target). This activity—though 20 somewhat reduced—remains gen- incidents this cycle, as opposed to 10 erally consistent with previously 16 the PRP), the security para- 0 digm remained relatively con- existing trends in Baghlani Jadid, and IED activity in Northern sistent, with Baghlani Jadid seeing BAGHLAN AOG BAGHLAN Crime the greatest percentage of report- Baghlan is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. ing (4 of the 9 incidents), and Puli Other notable incidents in the province includ- Khumri coming in second with 2. In Puli Khumri, the more notable ed the surrender of 13 alleged AOG members The make-up of incident report- of the 2 incidents was a 4 man in Puli Hisar (Baghlan has seen a number of ing in Baghlani Jadid remained ACG stopping and attempting to surrenders the last few weeks), and the firing primarily IED related, with 2 IED rob the occupants of a public bus of 2 BM1 missiles at the Dushi DAC at 1700 th detonations, 1 IED discovery, and at 0100 on the 14 in Chishmae on the 3rd. In this latter incident, nobody was the discovery of 2 suicide vests. Shir area (Puli Khumri –Mazar injured and no damage was noted, but it re- The IED detonations occurred road). They were stopped by the mains relatively notable as the first attack in a against a Pro-Government Militia ANP. Although incidents along year to occur within Dushi’s DAC itself, and vehicle (injuring 1 PGM member), this well travelled road are nota- only the 8th incident in the district over the last and against a doctor’s vehicle ble, ACG activity that late in the 6 months. (which sources claim was parked night is generally consistent with near an ANP vehicle, which has North Region security dynamics. THE ANSO REPORT Page 6

NGO Incidents B ALKH Year to Date 0 BALKH 50 This Report Period 0 Although Balkh doubled the vol- 40 ume of security incident reporting AOG, eventually taking 6 other 30 this cycle (going from 9 in late members of the CIP with them. 20 Unlike many of the CIPs in Balkh, January to 18 in early February), it 10 was the resurgence of this group consisted of re- 0 AOG/ACG movements in Chim- integrees, and it remains unclear tal (and to a lesser extent Chahar whether the latter 6 were abduct- Bolak) that suggested the strong- ed—as reported by open media BALKH AOG BALKH Crime est potential shift to the prov- sources—or went on their own ince’s security paradigm. By the free will. This could potentially cluded an IED discovery in Chahar Bolak and numbers, the 2 districts were rela- be a dynamic that is repeated else- a joint operation in Chimtal, few of the other tively quiet—recording only 2 where throughout the region as incidents were of strong note, but the locations incidents in Chimtal and 1 in Cha- AOGs move to take back strong- of reporting are of some interest, with 5 of the har Bolak—but anecdotal reports holds that were held by CIPs dur- 18 taking place in Balkh District, 4 in Mazar suggest that armed groups have ing the winter lull. The situation (criminal), and 2 each in Nahri Shahi and begun to move around in these may have been further exacerbat- Khulm. The most interesting of these— districts (mostly in the Alburz ed by the fact that CIP payments outside of the fact that Balkh saw the most sub-district of Chimtal), although for January were late region wide activity—was an armed skirmish that occurred there remain strongly conflicting due to the continuing negotiations in Khulm on the 2nd involving a Jamyiat com- reports as to whether these con- between IMF and the GOA over mander and the ANP in Tashqurghan, result- sist of ACGs or AOGs. Of the 3 the existence of CIPs and their ing in injuries to 3 bystanders and the killing of incidents that were recorded, the role in the future, with most 1 of the commander’s bodyguards. Although most notable occurred on the sources suggesting that they will the commander escaped, the incident is not 10th, when a CIP consisting of 12 soon be vetted by the MoI and expected to create a long term shift to the se- men were in the Alburz moun- absorbed into either ALP or curity paradigm for the district. That being tains area when 3 of them decided APPF programs. said, as AOGs move back into the province (as to leave the CIP to re-join an Outside of these—which also in- noted above), activity is expected to increase.

NGO Incidents B ADAKHSHAN Year to Date 0 BADAKHSHAN 50 This Report Period 0 Relatively consistent with the cur- 40 rent security paradigm for Ba- tions conducted by local elders). 30 dakhshan Province, all 4 of the Of note when assessing security in 20 security incidents that took place Warduj, all 4 of the current inci- 10 in the province this cycle occurred dents were related in some way to 0 in Warduj District. While each of this AOG operating in Warduj. the incidents had some level of In other incidents, NDS arrested BADAKHSHAN AOG BADAKHSHAN Crime significance, the most notable was individuals carrying food items to the February 7th abduction of 3 the AOG, 2 former jihadi com- civilians from Mala Village. In manders joined the AOG in Teer influential individual in the area—and that may this incident, armed members of Garan village, and 1 AOG com- have caused the shooting, but this had not the existing AOG in Warduj ab- mander shot another AOG mem- been confirmed as of the writing of this report. ducted the head of the CDC, an- ber who was allegedly working As previously noted, the AOG has continued other member of the CDC, and a with the GOA. This last may to grow in numbers and support, and this is local commander. The next day have involved the same situation likely to continue. However, another GOA (February 8th), the head of the which brought about the abduc- initiated operation in the area is probable as CDC’s dead body was returned to tion. At least 1 source from the the drug trafficking season grows closer, as the village and the other CDC area suggests that 2 AOG leaders Warduj has a strategic position along the traf- member was released, with the from the district had had a disa- ficking route, and is therefore too important to commander being released 2 days greement after the killing of the allow strong instability to disturb it. More as- later on the 11th (after negotia- head of the CDC—a popular and sessment is necessary. THE ANSO REPORT Page 7

NGO Incidents UNDUZ Year to Date 0 KUNDUZ K 50 This Report Period 0 As of the 15th, Kunduz had rec- 40 orded only 11 security incidents, a Kunduz (which saw 7 of the 10 30 volume that represents approxi- IED related incidents the PRP), 20 mately half that recorded the PRP although there was 1 seizure of a 10 (which witnessed over 20). Con- suicide vest in Kunduz. 0 sistent with the existing security The most significant dynamic for paradigm, the majority (6) oc- this reporting period is the relative KUNDUZ AOG KUNDUZ Crime curred in Kunduz District itself, decline of security incident report- with an additional 3 taking place ing and IED related incidents, but in Khanabad (and Chahar Dara 1 other incident is worth noting. different parts of the region in the past, but no and Alibad notching the last 2). In Khanabad on the 15th, IMF such occurrence had yet been noted. Only 2 of the 11 involved IED conducted a night raid that alleg- This aside, the existing lull—and absence of related incidents (both of them edly killed 2 civilians (including a spectacular attacks—is not expected to contin- being discoveries and disarming, teenage boy) and injured another ue, and increased incident reporting is ex- as opposed to detonations), with (a woman). These types of inci- pected as the “fighting season” approaches. neither of these taking place in dents have caused civil unrest in

NGO Incidents J AWZJAN Year to Date 0 JAWZJAN 50 This Report Period 0 While the most notable incident 40 in the province this period was only 5 security incidents prior to 30 the ambush of an ANP patrol in this one over the last 14 months. 20 The extent of an AOG presence Mingajik (causing a prolonged 10 in the district remains unclear at firefight), the situation surround- 0 ing CIPs in Qush Tepa and Dar- this time, but a follow up opera- tion occurred after this that result- zab Districts within the Tri- JAWZJAN AOG JAWZJAN Crime Provincial Area (TPA) remains ed in the arrest of a large number of individuals, although it is ex- worth monitoring. The province are unlikely to give up their territory willingly. pected that many of them will be witnessed only 7 security incidents How the CIPs handle this, and how they are released after questioning. this period (1 less than the PRP), supported, could be a pre-cursor of region with 3 of those occurring in the Fitting into dynamics witnessed wide dynamics. the PRP, 3 members of an AOG TPA (1 in Qush Tepa and 2 in Further to this, if CIPs are transferred to ALPs who had previously surrendered Darzab). or APPFs—as rumored may happen—it is to the GOA returned back to the In Mingajik, an ANP patrol that possible their salaries will decrease significantly AOG. Darzab and Qush Tepa included the District Chief of Po- (although this remains unclear at this time). In remain the site of a large number lice (DCOP) was ambushed in such an event, they might then demonstrate a of CIPs—many of which are filled Qezel Ayaq Odakar village as the lower threshold for sustained targeting. How- with ex-AOG members (unlike in group was investigating a report ever, these conclusions are pre-mature, and Balkh and Kunduz, where most about a relatively large AOG in more information and assessment will be re- CIPs consist of deputized existing the area. The ANP were eventu- quired. Despite the above, 12 more AOG militias)—and it remains unclear ally reinforced by the Provincial members surrendered to the GOA in Qush what will happen in these highly Chief of Police and ANP from Tepa this cycle, demonstrating that the recruit- contested districts as AOGs begin Aqcha, but the firefight—which ment process continues strongly. to return to them, as multiple re- took place from approximately Lastly, ANSF removed an IED from in front 1300 to 1800—killed 4 ANP and ports suggest they have begun to of the Kabul Bank in PD#1 of Shibrighan on 1 AOG, as well as injuring an ad- (although movements remain the 1st. IED related incidents are rare in ditional 1 of each. Although there hampered by the continuing cold weather). It is likely that in the Shibirghan, with the last being an IED detona- were rumors last year of an in- tion that occurred against an ANP ranger on creased AOG presence in next month or two, individuals April 10th. At this time, this remains a relative Mingajik, the district rarely sees from CIPs here will either turn outlier rather than denoting any shift. manifested insecurity, notching back to the AOGs or undergo strong targeting by AOGs, who THE ANSO REPORT Page 8

W ESTERN REGION

NGO Incidents H ERAT Year to Date 1 HERAT 50 This Report Period 0 While the severe weather condi- 40 tion continued to curtail AOG active as seen in an IED detona- 30

activity, ANSF initiated incidents tion in Obe (which killed 2 ANA 20 remained dominant in Herat this soldiers and wounded 4 others), 10 reporting period. The focus of and the long-term impact, particu- ANSF operations appears to have larly after the winter, remains 0 shifted to Gulran, an AOG questionable due to the limited stronghold in the western dis- capacity of the GOA. HERAT AOG HERAT Crime tricts, arresting 11 AOG mem- In the northern districts, despite bers, including the District Shad- the 11 day long ANSF clearing civilian and the injury of 2 others. ow Judge, and 6 individuals sus- operation conducted in Khushk pected for narcotic traffic. As for Herat City, while no AOG incident has during the first fortnight of the been recorded for the past 2 months, ACG In the eastern districts, ANSF last month, 2 IEDs were discov- activity remained a major concern. Particular- remaining along the Herat- ered along the Herat-Turghundi ly, ACG used the “slashed tire” scheme and Chaghcharan Highway persuaded Highway­­ demonstrate that AOG stole a substantial amount of cash from a vehi- a prominent commander in elements also continue to have a cle belonging to an IO right after its staff came Chishti Sharif and his 18 followers presence in the area. back from a money exchange office. While to join the APRP. While the sig- As for the southern districts, Shin- this incident could be an isolated case, this tac- nificant number of AOG and ma- dand continued to be an AOG tic is commonly used in Kabul City and the jor commanders continuously hotspot with 2 separate IED at- NGO community in Herat City is advised to joining the APRP would likely tacks killing 4 ANP officers and be aware of the potential risk of being involved result in a positive impact on the injuring 3 others. Another IED in a similar case. security situation along the high- attack struck a local transport, way, at least for the short term, resulting in the death of 1 local some AOGs have still remained

NGO Incidents F ARAH Year to Date 0 FARAH 50 This Report Period 0 This reporting cycle, Farah experi- 40 enced a considerable drop in secu- Highway. ANSF/IMF conducted 30 rity incidents compared to the a 5 day long joint clearing opera- 20 tion in the area, killing 5 AOG PRP (from 32 to 16). This sharp 10 members, arresting 10 others, and drop was likely attributed to the 0 worsening weather conditions establishing a few additional check which has limited the mobility of posts. While this operation as most actors. The clear result was well as the remaining presence of FARAH AOG FARAH Crime a noteworthy reduction in the considerable size of ANSF/IMF operations and AOG ANSF/IMF in Bala Buluk likely guards and 1 ANA soldier and wounding 6 incidents in Bala Buluk, a tradi- encouraged 40 AOG members PSC guards and 2 ANA soldiers. tional AOG stronghold. In spite and a few commanders from both Stretching the ANSF/IMF operation/presence of the overall decline of security Bakwa and Bala Buluk to join the eastward likely influenced Gulistan, a large part incidents throughout the prov- APRP, it was not able to com- of which area was under AOG control. No- ince, ANSF/IMF maintained the pletely curtail AOG activity in ticeably, the district hosted 2 AOG incidents focus of operations in Bakwa, Bakwa since 5 AOG incidents this reporting period alone, while only 6 AOG another AOG hotspot, apparently (most being IED attacks) subse- incidents had been recorded since the last Au- to secure the military logistic sup- quently targeted security force gust. ply along the Herat-Kandahar related convoys, killing 5 PSC THE ANSO REPORT Page 9

NGO Incidents B ADGHIS Year to Date 0 BADGHIS This Report Period 0 50 This reporting period Badghis and 40 Farah remained the focal points AOG members were wounded). 30 for insecurity in the Western Re- This noteworthy number of casu- 20 gion. Nonetheless (and in line alties (mainly on the AOG side) 10 with seasonal trends) incident vol- was due in particular to one inci- 0 umes recorded in the province dent that occurred in the Ajrim area of Ab Kamari, when, follow- continued to decrease. Early Feb- BADGHIS AOG BADGHIS Crime ruary in Badghis saw a total of 14 ing an AOG the attack on an ANP CP, a protracted fire fight security events, of which 7 were with information about IED emplacement in ensued that alone resulted in the AOG initiated. This figure dis- the area. plays a significant drop when deaths of 4 AOG and injuries to Qala-I-Naw city remained calm and was compared to the 24 that were re- an additional 3. marked by another reconciliation of an AOG ported over the PRP (including 12 IED deployment was limited this (composed of AOG elements from Ab Kama- AOG). Although limited in num- period with only 4 incidents re- ri) that occurred on 12 February. Although the ber, the main AOG tactic de- ported from Muqur, Murghab and recent string of reconciliations across the ployed in the province remained Ab Kamari (Khalashkak area), Western Region appears significant - with sev- direct attacks, with 4 separate inci- with all of them consisting of IED eral groups joining the process in Herat and dents recorded in Ab Kamari, discoveries/disposals by ANSF. Farah provinces – the main question still re- Qadis and Murghab. These AOG In the last fortnight AOG intimi- mains the sustainability on the long term of the attacks targeted ANP/ALP check dation efforts came to the fore in APRP. Although not related to the APRP, the points, and resulted in a number Murghab with a drastic incident, inverse was also noted when a local command- of casualties (with reports suggest- when an AOG chopped-off the er from Qala-I-Naw was reported to join ing that 4 AOG members were ears of a local teenager boy who AOGs in the area. killed, and one ALP and another 5 was accused of providing ANSF

NGO Incidents G HOR Year to Date 0 GHOR This Report Period 0 50 During the two first weeks of 40 February the winter lull in activi- civilian in the area of Allahyar. 30 The incident, according to local ties continued in Ghor and was 20 sources, was the outcome of a demonstrated by the fact that only 10 family dispute. The second inci- 4 security events were recorded, a 0 number consistent with the exist- dent was reported on the 10th, ing security paradigm in the prov- when a group of gunmen, be- ince, with them being mostly re- lieved to be members of an ACG, GHOR AOG GHOR Crime lated to criminal activity. Apart stopped local transport vehicles from an ANP operation that re- and commercial trucks, and poses challenge to road travel throughout the sulted in the detention of an indi- robbed passengers of their cash province. vidual and seizure of a small and valuables while travelling The continuing difficult weather conditions, as amount of weapons in the usually through Dahane Qishlaq area, well as the ever-present potential for criminal quiet district of Lal Wa Sarjangal, along the main Herat – Chagh- activity in Ghor, demonstrates the need ever Chaghcharan came to the fore this charan road. Criminal activity, in present need for caution on the part of NGOs, cycle with 2 separate incidents. particular armed robbery along particularly when planning road movements. Firstly, on 2 February, unknown district roads, remains a distinctive armed men shot and killed a local concern in Ghor and frequently THE ANSO REPORT Page 10

E ASTERN REGION

NGO Incidents N ANGARHAR Year to Date 2 NANGARHAR This Report Period 1 50 Nangarhar saw the region’s only 40 NGO incident, when a local cook killed, and the original target in- jured. Finally in Khogyani, an 30 for the NGO-run Khogyani dis- 20 trict hospital was shot in the IMF vehicle was struck with an 10 stomach by gunmen that burst IED. into his home on the evening of Elsewhere, the Bati Kot District 0 the 6th; the man remains in hospi- Governor was replaced, seemingly

tal in Jalalabad, with non-life because of slow progress in tack- NANGARHAR AOG NANGARHAR Crime threatening injuries. The reasons ling the highly resilient AOG for the attack remain unclear, as presence in the district; in the days former Kunar governor Asadullah Wafa. As the man was reportedly well-liked immediately after the change, two such, it appears that this will for now cease to in the area, and indeed, comes separate attacks took place against be a security concern, although efforts are still from a family of Islamic prayer ANSF targets in the district, alt- ongoing to resolve the precise details of the leaders who perform at local hough without casualties, and it land issue. mourning ceremonies, and as such will remain true that the GOA has is considered to be amongst the their work cut out there in regards Jalalabad City continued to enjoy a post- area’s holy men. Moreover, were to tackling opposition forces in transition quiet, with just a small number of the intention to specifically target the area. To the east, in Shinwar, IED discoveries recorded in the city. On the the NGO, practically or symboli- IMF conducted two notable oper- outskirts, however, some notable security inci- cally, it is extremely unlikely that ations that led to AOG deten- dents were recorded, including a grenade at- the gunmen would have targeted a tions, while on the 13th ANP de- tack on a GOA official’s house in the Base-e cook, as opposed to a clinic man- tained 4 AOG fighters travelling Ekmalati area, and two shootings in the Farm- ager or a doctor – and the NGO in a vehicle on the Shinwar stretch e Hadda/Ringroad area. This is in sharp con- also enjoys widespread acceptance of Highway 7, who were reported- trast to the same period last year, where the in the area. Khogyani was also ly on their way to conduct an at- city was home to a highly elevated number of home to two other targeted at- tack in Jalalabad; the planned lo- IED attacks, as well as a number of suicide tacks. In one, gunmen attacked a cation of the attack remains un- attacks; while it may partly be the case that Kunar-based judge as he was trav- clear, but were it to have been a AOGs are intentionally waiting to allow for elling through Miagano China in a team of four gunmen as appears transition to happen, the general absence of vehicle with his family; he, his likely, it would have been a seri- the HQN from the provincial game, and weak- wife and his young son were ous, potentially complex assault nesses in the province’s AOG leadership, seem killed, and four other family mem- against a high-profile target. Dur- to also be factors at work in keeping Jalalabad bers wounded. In the second, an ing the period, however, positive significantly safer than it was at the same time ANP officer was attacked by gun- developments also occurred in last year. men in Pirakhel, with ANP sup- Shinwar, with the two tribes in the port responding to the scene; in land dispute signing both a 3-year the battle, 3 AOG fighters were ceasefire through the mediation of

NOTICE: The graphs provided in the report are accurate as of the 15th of February 2012. THE ANSO REPORT Page 11

NGO Incidents K UNAR Year to Date 0 KUNAR 100 This Report Period 0 While the winter continued to 80 contribute to Kunar’s low incident namely the contested provincial 60 volumes during the fortnight, oth- council elections for a new chair- 40 er factors also played a role, as the man, with both the incumbent 20 overall level of incidents for the chairman and the newly elected 0 first half of February roughly winner originating from 50% the level of the same period Manogai’s Bar Kanday area. With in 2011, with the difference be- the incumbent, backed by the KUNAR AOG KUNAR Crime tween opposition-initiated inci- Provincial Governor, refusing to dents roughly the same too. The recognise the victory, the latter’s operation misidentified and attacked an ANA bulk of this difference is made up supporters staged a series of 4 detachment in the Charki Jumat area, killing by a significant reduction in inci- demonstrations in the centre of one soldier and injuring another before realis- dents in Manogai, the traditional Asadabad over the second week ing their mistake. Given that the Khas Kunar centre of the province’s conflict; of the period, with each growing ALP programme is Kunar’s oldest, this is un- this can be attributed to both the in size and anger as their demands likely to cause any effects on the starting of harsher winter this year, as well as failed to be met. The issue re- other such programmes in neighbouring dis- recent inter-AOG conflict that mained unresolved at the time of tricts, but the incident points to the growing has diverted their focus away writing, but it is likely that the dangers of misidentification amongst an in- from IMF targeting. On the lat- victor will be confirmed as the creasingly diverse and uncoordinated set of ter, two AOG factions engaged in new chairman, and because of a ANSF actors. violent clashes with each other in large, diverse coalition in Kunar Kandagal, over the detention by who are increasingly vocal in op- In Asadabad city, apart from the protests, the one group of a local engineer; this posing the governor, often for most notable incident was a successful mortar is the latest of a long series of in- their own reasons, it is also likely attack on the IMF base at Yar Gul, in which ter-AOG clashes over the past 2 that unless the governor can se- two rounds impacted inside, killing 1 local em- years in Manogai and Chapa Dara, cure the intervention of Kabul on ployee and injuring 2 others. There was also where AOG strength is at a his side, he will soon be replaced. an IED attack on an NDS vehicle in Nawabad, which however failed to cause any casualties. threshold that allows them to be If Manogai was somewhat quieter, Further north, in Nari’s Sawo area opposition as concerned with rivalry with the Sirkanay-Marawara nexus re- fighters amputated the hand of a local accused other groups as they are with mained highly volatile, with multi- of theft, the first time this type of punishment ANSF and IMF harassment. That ple attacks on ALP, IMF and has been recorded in Kunar since the fall of being said, opposition cadres still ANP targets, as well as the abduc- the Taliban government in 2001. Given that found the time to stage two at- tion of two people in Marawara. this was a judicial punishment handed out only tacks on IMF/ANSF convoys in IMF conducted one operation in once the Taliban had firmly established their the district, but even this figure this district, killing two fighters, authority and could afford to met out such pales in comparison to early but that remains the only recorded harsh forms of justice, seeing such incidents 2011’s intensity of attacks on the- significant IMF incident across today can be understood as an indication of se actors. the province. In Khas Kunar, the the strength of the armed opposition in parts Manogai was also at the heart of first ANSF friendly fire incident in of northern Kunar. the province’s political develop- Kunar’s history was recorded, ments in the past two weeks, when an ALP unit conducting an THE ANSO REPORT Page 12

NGO Incidents N URISTAN Year to Date 0 NURISTAN 50 This Report Period 0 Nuristan saw a small number of 40 incidents during this period, took place on the same day. First, 30 which nonetheless marked the in the Taki area of the district, 20 highest number of incidents dur- opposition fighters attacked an 10 ANP CP, leading to a firefight ing a reporting period since the 0 second half of November. The that killed one AOG fighter and incidents were concentrated in injuring a number of others, one of whom was then arrested. two districts, the capital district NURISTAN AOG NURISTAN Crime Wama and the western district of Then, just an hour later in the Do Ab. In the first district, armed DAC area, ANP conducted an operation against a group of op- Do Ab is one of the less cold districts in the opposition fighters fired a single mountainous province. If this year follows rocket at Parun City, which position fighters that had erected an illegal CP along the main road trends from previous ones, March is likely to missed anything of substance, but be the time when there is a measurable uptick more seriously, a few days later an to the DAC, harassing motorists although not reportedly detaining in AOG activity, and when AOG priorities for unidentified group of armed men the year will begin to become clear. shot and killed an ANP policeman any. in the city’s Shaba area. This volume of incidents is unu- In Do Ab, two related incidents sual for this time of year, although

NGO Incidents L AGHMAN Year to Date 0 LAGHMAN 50 This Report Period 0 In Laghman, the most significant 40 development in the past 2 weeks cle, injuring 4 soldiers, while an- 30 other IED struck an IMF vehicle was a discernable AOG presence 20 on roads leading into Mihtarlam in the Mihtarlam Baba area of the City. Most seriously, in the Kala- district. The only other incident 10 kot area of the road leading into of note in Laghman was a person- 0 Mihtarlam from Surkhakan, ANP al dispute in the Parwaii area of intercepted and fought with an Alingar which descended into a AOG unit that was conducting firefight that cost the lives of 3 LAGHMAN AOG LAGHMAN Crime illegal checks on, and stealing locals. In all, the first half of Feb- from, passing vehicles on the ruary was substantially quieter the prevalence of incidents on main access evening of the 6th. No casualties than January, consistent with wid- roads to the provincial capital, following on were reported. In another inci- er regional and seasonal trends, as from the IEDs on the main Surkhakan- dent, on the main road between well as calmer than the same peri- Mihtarlam road in the previous period, do the Alishing DAC and Mihtarlam od last year – again matching oth- point to a threat that needs to be paid attention City, an IED struck an ANA vehi- er eastern provinces. However, to by those visiting the provincial capital. THE ANSO REPORT Page 13

NGO Incidents K HOST Year to Date 1 KHOST This Report Period 0 100 Although both Paktya and Paktika 80 respective DACs and main IMF saw highly unusual degrees of 60 calm in incident occurrence in the facilities. The IED campaign, however, remained the central 40 past fortnight – with conflict inci- 20 dents in single figures – Khost form of threat away from the bor- 0 remained home to a very high der, with detonations particularly number of security events, sum- focused on northern Gurbuz and Khost City (of which more be- ming to the most intense conflict KHOST AOG KHOST Crime dynamic in the eastern region: the low). IED detonations were also province registered 114 security registered in Sabari and Tere Zayi, and as a parking area for campaign forces, and incidents, including 45 initiated by but in these districts the security so it remains a risky area within which to travel the armed opposition and almost forces managed to defuse almost in the city, especially for the unpredictability of 20 major IMF operations. How- all attempts at IED attacks. In- the IEDs there. The final IED incident in the ever, while the difference in con- deed, while the long-run average city targeted an ANP CP in the butcher market flict intensity between the low- ratio of detonations to discoveries area, which also prematurely detonated. land, warmer Khost, on the one over the past 2 years across the hand, and its two snow-covered, province is roughly 1:1, during On the IMF side, operations focused on mountainous high altitude neigh- this period it was closer to 1:2 (20 Khost, Tere Zayi, Nadir Shah Kot, Gurbuz bours, on the other, is exceptional detonations to 38 discoveries), and Sabari, keeping up their operational inten- in its extent, it remains normal demonstrating a substantial im- sity against the province’s HQN cadres. In all, within the broader seasonal pat- provement in the success rate of across all operations, 26 AOG fighters were terns across the southeast region. the security forces in this key di- detained – continuing the non-lethal trend in Because of the length of time it mension of the armed opposi- the province which contrasts so strongly with takes for the weather to warm in tion’s provincial campaign. Paktika during its fighting season. Moreover, Paktya and Paktika, it’s not usually In Khost city, however, the ratio in two unusual incidents, in Khost IMF de- until May/June that these prov- was closer to the long-run aver- tained ANP officers suspected of being in- inces reach the threshold of 100 age, with 4 detonations and 5 dis- volved in opposition activities, including the AOG-initiated incidents per coveries. The most destructive of chief of staff at the Khost prison – indicating month (with the latter continuing these was an IED in the wood some of the ambiguities in allegiances in the upwards to 200 and above in late market which sparked a fire, ulti- province’s security establishment, particularly summer); by contrast, Khost tra- mately destroying 300 shops and in former mujahedeen networks. ditionally sustains levels of con- causing substantial economic For the near-term, the province will remain a flict intensity close to that from damage – which was likely unin- highly kinetic environment, but the city itself January, and this year is evidently tentional beyond the specific shop may remain reasonably insulated from the no different. targeted, almost certainly for com- main conflict dynamics affecting the border In terms of the details of Khost’s mercial reasons. There were also and interior areas. Key questions for the oper- security environment, the conflict three IED detonations on second- ating environment in and around the city are remains within established out- ary roads in Bilan Manzel, in two whether a pattern of complex attacks or a lines. On the one side, AOG separate incidents, all of which more concerted IED campaign will re-emerge fighters continued to pressurise prematurely detonated – exhibit- in the provincial capital in the coming months; border forces in Tere Zayi, Tani, ing both an intentionality and an if it does, all current indications are that this Khost District and Spera, with a incompetence in the IED cell op- will remain focused upon ANSF and GOA small number of direct and IDF erating in this part of the city. targets. attacks deeper in these districts The area is frequently used for also recorded, mostly against their transportation of IMF logistics, THE ANSO REPORT Page 14

S OUTHERN REGION

NGO Incidents KANDAHAR K ANDAHAR Year to Date 1 100 This Report Period 1 80 This period Kandahar Province 60 experienced an NGO direct inci- and that something about the dent, marking the first such occur- NGO staff member fit that pro- 40 rence this year. During the se- file, but more information about 20 cond week of the PRP (on 26 Jan- the abduction (and the other 4 0 uary) an NGO-off duty staff individuals, of whom little infor- member was abducted while trav- mation has surfaced) will be nec- elling in a public transport from essary for further assessment. KANDAHAR AOG KANDAHAR Crime Kabul. According to the victim’s Outside of this, the previous fort- account, he was singled out at an night saw a re-concentration of enced IED incidents. AOG illegal checkpoint in Zhari AOG efforts on Kandahar City in District along with 4 other indi- line with trends that have ob- While two targeted killings were reported this viduals, and then transported to served since early January. This reporting period (in districts 10 and 3 of Kan- an unknown location. During the period it was manifested in the dahar City, respectively against an NDS officer captivity the NGO staff was as- latest in a series of high-profile and a civilian), AOG direct attacks accounted saulted physically and accused of attacks. On 5 February, a Toyota for more than 60% of all AOG initiated inci- cooperating with “the Ameri- Corolla rigged with explosives dents, and were concentrated in particular on cans.” Following the initial ab- detonated in an ANP parking lot Zhari and Maywand, with other attacks report- duction, it seems that the AOG in District 1, killing 9 persons ed in Arghandab, Reg and Arghistan. This discovered that he was working (including 4 civilians) and wound- included an attack on the convoy of Zhari Dis- th for a de-mining agency. The vic- ing at least another 21 people, trict Governor that occurred on February 12 . tim’s relatives, as well as local el- marking the 6th high profile attack The official escaped the incident unharmed, ders, subsequently engaged the recorded in the city since the be- but 1 ANP was wounded during the fire fight. abductors in negotiations which ginning of this year. The potential for further spectacular AOG eventually concluded with the safe On the provincial level 60 inci- activity, in particular in Kandahar City, was release of the detainee on Febru- dents were recorded in Kandahar highlighted with the detention by NDS of an ary, 3rd. The circumstances of the this period, of which 18 were au- AOG cell composed of 5 members, which incident seem to indicate that it thored by AOG. IED emplace- included 2 teenager suspected suicide attackers. was an AOG targeted operation, ment remains robust throughout It is worth noting, that one of the detained as the road is heavily trafficked the province, with at least 19 IED teenagers had been arrested by IMF a few and the AOG pulled only specific related incidents, including 4 deto- months ago, accused of attempting to conduct people off the bus, however it is nations. Besides Kandahar City, a suicide attack on IMF. The suspect had been unclear why the NGO staff was which in addition to 4 discoveries released from the jail following the tradition of one of those singled out for ab- saw a detonation of a bicycle- pardoning criminals during the Holy month of duction. It is likely that the AOG mounted RCIED in District 5 Ramadan via a special presidential decree, and had prior intelligence and were (resulting in 2 civilians injured), was subsequently re-arrested this period in searching for a specific target(s), Arghandab and Zhari also experi- Kandahar.

ACRONYMS: Please see the final page for a list of ANSO-utilized acronyms. THE ANSO REPORT Page 15

NGO Incidents H ELMAND Year to Date 0 HELMAND This Report Period 0 100 In the last two weeks the incident 80 that when an ANP EOD team volume recorded in Helmand has 60 decreased when compared to the was attempting to defuse the de- previous cycle (with at least 61 vice, it was remotely detonated 40 security incidents whereas the killing 2 ANP and wounding one 20 PRP recorded 72). This reporting other. This incident is another 0 period the province experienced example that that in the case of an IED/RCIED detonation or dis- 18 incidents attributed to AOG HELMAND AOG HELMAND Crime (which displays a rate of 29 % of covery, the possibility of a sec- ondary device or a follow-up at- all incidents recorded across the Although usually IDF attacks play a minor role province), but the majority of en- tack should not be dismissed. With this in mind, it is important in the province (as compared to the wide- tries were related to ANSF/IMF spread use of IEDs and direct attacks), a nota- activities. for NGOs to avoid such areas until these incidents have been ble incident – due to its impact on civilians – In the last fortnight there were no completely cleared by security occurred in Nahri Sarraj, when 4 civilians were high profile attacks in Helmand forces. injured following a mortar attack. (as of the writing this report), but Also this reporting period security forces con- IED deployment featured heavily As is frequently the case, IED related incidents accounted for tinued to put pressure on AOGs across the in the security paradigm for the province, with at least 29 documented opera- province. the bulk of reported casualties in the province, with this period be- tions recorded in Nahri Sarraj, Musa Qala, During this reporting cycle at least ing no exception. Besides 5 PSC Marja, Naw Zad, Washer and Lashkar Gah. 23 IED related incidents (both guards and one civilian wounded As a result of these operations, 30 suspected detonations and discoveries) were in Taxi Adda area of Lashkar Gah AOG were arrested (including several mid- recorded in the province and were following an RCIED detonation, level commanders) and an additional 14 killed. focused on the districts of Nahri a total of 3 civilians and 3 ANP Besides operations targeting AOG manpower Sarraj, Sangin, Lashkar Gah and were killed, whereas 5 ANP, 4 and various weapons and ammunition caches, Nad Ali. The provincial capital PSC, and one civilian were security forces’ efforts remain focused on the Lashkar Gah saw a noteworthy wounded during 5 separate inci- drug business with an eradication campaign incident on 9 February, when dents reported from Nahri Sarraj, ongoing in several areas of Helmand Province. ANP located an explosive device Washer, Naw Zad and Sangin. in Karta-e-Lagan area. It seems 2012 AOG Attributed Incidents— 2012 NGO Incidents– Actor Distribution Regional Distribution

SOUTH 36%

NORTH AOG WEST 6% 33% 10% NORTH EAST 2% ACG CENTRAL 67% 5%

EAST 41% THE ANSO REPORT Page 16

NGO Incidents U RUZGAN Year to Date 0 URUZGAN This Report Period 0 50 The reporting period was marked 40 by a continuation of the lull in IED detonated against an IMF AOG activity evident in the previ- vehicle, beginning an attack of a 30 ous two weeks. However, there joint IMF/ANSF patrol, primarily 20 were several significant AOG op- involving SAF. Two AOG mem- 10 erations, including an attempted bers were killed as a result, with 0 suicide attack in Dihrawud and an no reported casualties from the attack on IMF in Tirin Kot City. IMF/ANSF forces. URUZGAN AOG URUZGAN Crime The remaining incidents primarily IEDs continued to have a major consisted of IEDs throughout impact in the province particularly killing one child and wounding four others Tirin Kot District. ANSF opera- in the district of Tirin Kot. A who were playing in the vicinity. In counter- tions were few in number, with roadside IED took the lives of point, IMF/ANSF activity was mostly limited patrols engaged in IED discov- five ANP members in the to IED discovery/disposal operations, with ery/disposal operations in various Charmistan area while in the vil- these taking place in the districts of Khas parts of the province. lage of Khero Kariz, an RCIED Uruzgan and Tirin Kot, for a total of seven In the bazaar area of Dihrawud, which was emplaced in front of separate IEDs neutralized. an individual wearing a BBIED the house of an ANP contractor Lastly, a ceremony took place in Khas Uruzgan vest approached a joint IM- (who was providing food supplies during which 13 AOG turned in their weapons F/ANSF base, however before to a nearby ANP unit) detonated, and other equipment as part of the controver- reaching his target the bomber killing the him and wounding two sial peace and reconciliation process. As dis- was identified by IMF/ANSF at a others. Lastly, a roadside IED cussed in past reports the effectiveness and checkpoint and was engaged with near the village of Kash Khanjak, validity of this process has been placed in SAF, resulting in the detonation hit a local Saracha vehicle, killing doubt, and it is difficult to make any conclu- of his vest. Only the bomber was one civilian occupant, wounding sive statements regarding the effect this partic- killed. Two days later, several another and severely damaging ular process will have on the conflict dynamics individuals, including an ANP the vehicle. In the area of Naw of the immediate area, or indeed the South officer, were arrested as accom- Abad of Dihrawud District an Region as a whole. plices in this attack. In the Qala- IED emplaced near the house of a E-Naw area of Tirin Kot City, an prominent tribal elder detonated,

NGO Incidents G HAZNI Year to Date 0 GHAZNI This Report Period 0 50

The continuation of harsh winter 40 weather has resulted in another speak both to the challenges faced report period of decreased inci- by AOG as a result of the weath- 30 dent levels, especially in AOG- er/terrain effects, but also most 20 likely represent a period of re- initiated events. IMF operations 10 have continued apace, with several grouping following several signifi- 0 operations resulting in the deten- cant incidents in the previous re- tion of suspected AOG members. port periods, most notably the re- capture of the NAWA DAC by GHAZNI AOG GHAZNI Crime AOG operations occurred in the IMF last month, depriving AOG District Center of Dih Yak and of a stronghold which had been amount of assorted weapons and ammunition. the Sardar Qala area of Andar held for several years. In that case a total of four AOG were detained District. In the first incident by IMF. AOG attacked an ANP post with IMF operations were maintained at a moderately high pace, slightly The last incident of note occurred near the SAF and escaped afterwards, with village of Nawagi, in Khwaja Umari District, no casualties reported on either down from recent report periods. Most notably, Khogyani District wherein an IMF airstrike killed three civilian side. In the second AOG at- occupants of a vehicle mistaken for AOG. tacked an IMF patrol, again with witnessed the arrest of five AOG during a search operation in Pasha The reason for the error is, at time of writing, SAF, but avoided a prolonged not known and thus far no reports of commu- exchange and disengaged before village, as well as the rescue of an abducted civilian during an opera- nity protests or any other reaction has been any casualties were incurred. The reported. lack of any large scale operations tion which also netted a small THE ANSO REPORT Page 17

NGO Incidents Z ABUL Year to Date 0 ZABUL 100 This Report Period 0 Zabul Province has witnessed an 80 almost total absence of AOG- Shahjoy District, another ANP 60 operation netted two AOG mem- initiated incidents during the past 40 bers along with their personal two weeks, a continuation of the 20 minimal activity reported in the weapons. 0 most recent reporting cycle. IM- IMF operations in Shahjoy Dis- F/ANSF units conducted a num- trict yielded positive results, first ber of successful operations in the area of Bazargan where five ZABUL AOG ZABUL Crime against AOG, which may have AOG were detained, and then in resulted in putting AOG units in the village of Jafar where a further Qalat District. The following day, also in the province on a defensive foot- three AOG were taken into custo- Qalat District, an ANP operation resulted in ing. In addition, climate and ter- dy. A night raid conducted near the arrest of 10 members of a criminal gang rain effects were most likely a fac- the DAC of Qalat also resulted in (including an ANP officer) who were involved tor in the low level of AOG activ- three suspected AOG being ar- in stealing IMF contracted fuel tankers. Dur- ity during this period. Criminality rested. Although night raids by ing the operation ANP officers also retrieved figured rather prominently over IMF have been inflammatory in two IMF contracted fuel tankers. It is not yet the past two weeks, with four inci- the past, there have been no re- known whether the two incidents are related. dents being recorded, primarily in ports of protests resulting from Lastly, in Hazari village of Qalat District, ANP Qalat District. this particular operation. The arrested two individuals, including an ANP largest success for IMF/ANSF In the lone AOG operation re- officer, while they were in the process of steal- came in the area of Bagh in Ar- ported, AOG abducted an ANP ing money from a private residence. The de- ghandab District, where a joint official while he was travelling in a tention of two ANP for theft in two separate operation yielded five AOG fight- private vehicle along the Kabul- cases, while somewhat droll, underlines the ers, a sizable amount of ammuni- Kandahar highway, near the vil- serious challenges faced by ANP with respect tion nitrate, and some AOG- lage of Jaldak. There is as yet no to recruitment and retention of quality candi- related documents. Lastly, an more information on the fate of dates, and the subsequent detrimental effect IMF patrol mistakenly shot and the official, nor if any communi- these types of cases have on public confidence wounded a civilian male during a cations have been received from of the police and by extension the state. the abductors. patrol in the town of Shahjoy. Thus far there have been no re- The last incident of note was a helicopter crash As mentioned, IMF/ANSF units ports of local protests arising in Shinkay District, which killed all four of its were active during the report peri- from this incident. occupants. The civilian aircraft in question od. An ANP operation resulted was tasked by IMF for logistical purposes, With respect to criminal incidents in the arrest of a mid-level AOG providing food supplies to bases in the area. ANP units apprehended eight commander near the village of Technical issues were cited as the reason for individuals who were caught steal- Arghato in Mizan District, along the crash. with several vehicles and weap- ing fuel from three IMF contract- ons. In the area of Lodin, in ed tankers in the Senak area of

NOTICE: We are pleased to announce that Mr. Peter Dimitroff has returned to the post as ANSO South RSA and is presently insitu, having recently taken over responsibility for the region. Joining him is Dr. Mohibullah Roshaan who has taken over as the South Counterpart, bringing the office to its full complement of staff. Their contact details can be found on the last page of this report, and any questions or inquiries regarding the dynamics of the region would be welcome by the team. Contact List Mukhtar Dr. Nic Tomas Peter Naseer Nathan Brian COUNTRY CENTRAL Sayed Taro WEST SOUTH Rory EAST NORTH Firoz Camille Patrick ‐ od Device Islamic mili Explosive Police ACG Pro

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