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Viewpoint Strong All-Round Performance Viewpoint Strong all-round performance Key points Dabur India Strong performance continues; revenues View: Positive | CMP: Rs371 and PAT grew in double digit: Dabur India Ltd (Dabur) registered yet another quarter of strong performance in Q4FY2018 with consolidated Company details revenues (on comparable basis) and PAT Market cap: Rs65,352 cr growing 11% and 19%, respectively, during the quarter. The double-digit revenue growth 52-week high/low: Rs383/265 can be attributed to strong 10% comparable NSE volume: (No of shares) 14.4 lakh growth in the domestic business (driven by 7.7% volume growth) and strong 16.8% growth BSE code: 500096 in the international business. The gross margins NSE code: DABUR improved by 167 basis points (bps) y-o-y to 50.7% mainly on account of lower raw material Sharekhan code: DABUR prices. In line with reduction in the raw material cost, the operating margins (OPM) expanded Free float: (No of shares) 56.3 cr by 206bps y-o-y to 23.9% and the operating profit grew 16.2% y-o-y to Rs. 485.2 crore. This, Shareholding pattern along with lower incidence of tax led to 19.1% Public and growth in the PAT to Rs. 397.4 crore (ahead of others our estimates of Rs. 361.4 crore). 5% Foreign 17% Domestic and international business registered strong performance: Dabur’s Institutions domestic business revenues grew 10% on 9% comparable basis and the operating profit Non-promoter grew 14.5% during the quarter. The double- Promoters corporate 1% digit growth can be attributed to categories 68% such as oral care, growing by 11% (toothpaste category grew 13.7%), hair care category grew ~9% (shampoo category registered robust growth of 31.3%) and healthcare category grew 11.2% during the quarter. The strong growth in Price chart toothpaste category can be attributed to strong 380 growth of 20% in premium portfolio (including Dabur Meswak and Red Toothpaste). In the hair 360 care space, the company continues to gain 340 market share standing at 23% (improved by 100 320 bps on y-o-y basis) during the quarter. The hair oil category grew ~9% led by strong demand 300 for perfumed oils and coconut oils during the 280 quarter. Dabur Honey continues to gain strong 260 acceptance and grew by 23.7% resulting in 17 17 18 18 - - - - double-digit growth in health supplement Jan Sep May May category in Q4FY2018. Beverages category registered a muted performance with revenue growth of 2% affected by enhanced competition. Price performance After several quarters of dull performance, (%) 1m 3m 6m 12m Dabur’s international business registered strong constant currency revenue growth of 16.8% Absolute 12.5 3.9 11.4 29.7 in Q4FY2018. The MENA region saw strong Relative to Sensex 5.5 6.1 5.0 9.0 recovery with Egypt and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) registering strong growth of 38% May 02, 2018 12 Sharekhan Viewpoint and 50.7% (led by 81.9% growth in Saudi Arabia) promotional spends expected to remain high, the respectively during the quarter. consolidated OPM is expected to see marginal improvement and would stay in the range of 21- Outlook – Domestic business volumes to grow 22% over the next two years. steadily; international business’ double-digit growth to sustain: Dabur’s domestic business Maintain Positive view with 14-16% upside: We volume growth stood at ~8% in Q4 in-line with have revised upwards our earnings estimates our expectation. With rural demand gaining for FY2019 and FY2020 by 2% and 4%, momentum (rural growth stood at 12.6% in Q4), respectively, to factor in better than expected we expect the domestic business volume growth performance in Q4FY2018. With sustenance of to sustain in the range of 8-10% in the coming strong performance in the domestic business quarters. The key categories which will drive the and expected improvement in the international domestic business performance are shampoo, business, we expect the double-digit earning hair oil, health supplements and toothpaste, growth to sustain in the coming quarters. which are likely to post double-digit growth in Despite 15% run-up in the stock price in last the near term. Further, the key international one month, we maintain our Positive view on markets such as Egypt, GCC and Saudi Arabia the stock with 14-16% potential upside in view of have posted recovery with strong double- up-gradation in earnings estimates and future digit revenue growth during the quarter. In the growth prospects. Dabur remains one of our top stable currency environment, we expect the picks in the FMCG space, as it will be one of the international business to deliver mid-teen revenue key beneficiaries of improving rural demand in growth in the near term. With advertisement and the domestic market. Valuations (consolidated) Rs cr Particulars FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019E FY2020E Net Sales 7,868.8 7,701.4 7,748.3 8,872.6 10,067.1 Adjusted PAT 1,251.2 1,280.3 1,368.7 1,629.5 1,903.6 EPS (Rs.) 7.1 7.3 7.8 9.3 10.8 OPM (%) 19.3 19.6 20.9 21.5 22.1 PE(X) 52.2 51.0 47.7 40.1 34.3 EV/EBIDTA (X) 42.1 42.1 38.8 32.6 27.7 RoE (%) 33.5 28.4 26.0 26.6 27.0 RoCE (%) 33.9 30.1 27.9 29.8 31.0 Results (consolidated) Rs cr Particulars Q4FY18* Q4FY17 yoy% Q3FY18 qoq% Net sales# 2032.9 1914.7 6.2 1966.4 3.4 Total expenditure 1547.7 1497.1 3.4 1563.0 -1.0 Operating profit 485.2 417.6 16.2 403.5 20.3 Other income 73.2 65.0 12.6 66.3 10.4 Interest expenses 13.2 11.7 13.6 13.2 0.2 Depreciation 42.6 39.5 7.7 40.5 5.3 Profit before tax 502.6 431.4 16.5 416.2 20.8 Tax 105.2 97.7 7.7 83.3 26.3 Reported PAT (before minority int.) 397.4 333.7 19.1 333.0 19.3 EPS (Rs.) 2.3 1.9 19.1 1.9 19.4 Gross margins (%) 50.7 49.0 167BPS 51.6 -88BPS OPM(%) 23.9 21.8 206BPS 20.5 335BPS *Q4FY2018 is the second quarter under GST implementation # Under the GST regime, revenue is calculated net of GST and, hence, is not comparable on YoY basis Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article. May 02, 2018 13 Sharekhan Stock Ideas Automobiles Infrastructure / Real estate Apollo Tyres Gayatri Projects Ashok Leyland ITNL Bajaj Auto IRB Infrastructure Developers Gabriel India Jaiprakash Associates Hero MotoCorp Larsen & Toubro M&M NBCC (India) Maruti Suzuki Sadbhav Engineering Rico Auto Industries TVS Motor Oil & gas Oil India Banks & Finance Petronet LNG Axis Bank Reliance Industries Bajaj Finance Selan Exploration Technology Bajaj Finserv Bank of Baroda Pharmaceuticals Bank of India Aurobindo Pharma Capital First Cipla Federal Bank Cadila Healthcare HDFC Divi’s Labs HDFC Bank Glenmark Pharmaceuticals ICICI Bank Lupin LIC Housing Finance Sun Pharmaceutical Industries PTC India Financial Services Torrent Pharmaceuticals Punjab National Bank SBI Building materials Union Bank of India Grasim Yes Bank The Ramco Cements Shree Cement Consumer goods UltraTech Cement Britannia Emami Discretionary consumption GSK Consumers Arvind Ltd Godrej Consumer Products Century Plyboards (India) Hindustan Unilever Cox and Kings ITC Inox Leisure Jyothy Laboratories Info Edge (India) Marico Kewal Kiran Clothing Zydus Wellness Orbit Exports Relaxo Footwear IT / IT services Thomas Cook India Firstsource Solutions Wonderla Holidays HCL Technologies Zee Entertainment Infosys Persistent Systems Diversified / Miscellaneous Tata Consultancy Services Aditya Birla Nuvo Wipro Bajaj Holdings Bharti Airtel Capital goods / Power Bharat Electronics CESC Gateway Distriparks CG Power & Industrial Solutions Max Financial Services Finolex Cable PI Industries Greaves Cotton Ratnamani Metals and Tubes Kalpataru Power Transmission Supreme Industries KEC International UPL PTC India Skipper Thermax Triveni Turbine V-Guard Industries Va Tech Wabag.
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