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Info Edge (India) Ltd Info Edge (India) Ltd. April 9, 2019 Analyst: Kunal Bhatia Initiating Coverage @ Dalal & Broacha BUY Highest Market Share by traffic coupled with robust industry growth in flagship products (Naukri and 99acres) and investee companies to drive performance Current Price 1,856 Naukri.com Target Price Naukri is benefiting from strong hiring and churning trends in the IT services sector in FY18 2,423 and 9MFY19 (IT sector directly contributes 31% to Naukri.com’s revenues which in turn Upside/Downside 31% contributes 71% to Total standalone sales of Info Edge). Management stated that top 4-5 IT services companies contribute 4-5% to topline whereas Mid to Small tier companies 52 Week Range 1,126/1,930 contribute a larger chunk. Net Additions have been strong in mid to bottom bucket of the companies as well. Naukri revenues reported a growth of 17% YoY in 9MFY19 whereas 5 Key Share Data year CAGR between FY14 and FY18 stood at 12.4% Market M M Market Cap (Rs.bn) 229 99acres (17% of standalone revenues) Market Cap (US$ mn) 3319 99acres has also reported steady performance in the past 2 quarters after the real estate No of o/s shares (mn) 122 industry has moved past the overhang of De-mon, GST and RERA. 99acres grew 40% YoY in Face Value 10 9MFY19 whereas 5 year CAGR was 11.9%. The split between Brokers : Builders is 50 : 50 and company maintains that participation from brokers compared to builders has increased Monthly Avg. 343.8 massively during 9MFY19. Management is of the view that the real estate market has vol(BSE+NSE) Nos’000 stabilized, which is evident through an increase in transactions in Q3FY19 and heightened BSE Code 532777 activity of the broker segment (43% in FY16 to 51% as of December 2018). Management of NSE Code NAUKRI the view the current liquidity issues in the real estate industry is related to Developer Finance (in-line with slowdown in business from new launches for Info Edge) while Retail Bloomberg INFOE:IN finance remains unaffected Price Performance Expect PolicyBazaar to be “The Next Big Thing” in Info Edge’s investee company portfolio An under-penetrated insurance industry coupled with an even more under-penetrated online insurance activity indicates a massive opportunity for PolicyBazaar. While only 4% of Info-edge Sensex the Indian population is insured and even lower – 2% of this activity (premium renewal or 170 new insurance policy purchases) takes place ‘online’. PolicyBazaar dictates a 95% market 160 150 share of ‘online insurance comparison’ and 50% share of online insurance transactions. We 140 believe that as the Millenials and Generation Z population matures and takes control over 130 financial decision making and handling, we will witness a major shift from the current 120 “agent-policy holder” industry model to an “online model”. This demographic dynamic 110 should be supported by maturing digital technologies such as Analytics, AI and Automation. 100 90 Info Edge owns 9.84% stake in Policy Bazaar and Tamasek Holdings owns another 9.84% stake in EtechAces (which owns and operates PolicyBazaar) through a subsidiary - MakeSense Technologies. Other investors include Softbank and Tiger Global. % Shareholding Dec-18 Sept-18 Outlook & Valuation Promoters 41.4 41.3 Info Edge is currently trading at 62x and 52.3x FY20e and FY21e EPS. We value Info Edge’s standalone business (Naukri, 99acres, Jeevansaathi and Shiksha.com) at 40x FY21e EPS of Institutions 58.5 58.6 INR 35.5 to arrive at a target price of INR 1,420. As far as Investee companies are concerned, Others 0.2 0.1 we consider two major investments – Zomato and PolicyBazaar in our valuation. As per the Total 100 100 latest round of funding for Zomato (February 2019) coupled with our estimates, we value Zomato at INR 828 per share. PolicyBazaar is valued at INR 175 per share. As per sum of the parts valuation, we assign a BUY rating on the stock with a target price of INR 2,423 (31% upside from CMP). Standalone Financials (INR Mn) Net Sales % Growth EBITDA Margin (%) PAT PAT Margin (%) EPS % Growth P/E (x) ROE (%) ROCE (%) FY17 8,021 11.8% 2,275 28.4% 2,084 25.5% 17.2 52% 109.9x 18.7% 8.4% FY18 9,155 14.1% 2,973 32.5% 2,737 19.9% 22.5 31% 123.7x 18.4% 8.7% FY19E 10,939 19.5% 3,352 30.6% 3,081 26.7% 25.3 13% 77.2x 17.3% 10.2% FY20E 12,812 17.1% 4,109 32.1% 3,638 28.4% 29.9 18% 62.0x 19.0% 11.1% FY21E 14,637 14.2% 4,918 33.6% 4,314 29.5% 35.5 19% 52.3x 15.9% 11.9% Info Edge (India) Ltd. April 9, 2019 Analyst: Kunal Bhatia Initiating Coverage @ Dalal & Broacha Naukri Service-wise Revenue Contribution Industry-wise Revenue Contribution 4% 1% 5% 20% 30% 7% 11% 6% 59% 6% 13% 14% 25% Resume Database Access IT & ITeS Recruitment Firms Job Listings Job Seeker Services Infratructure BFSI Source: Company, Dalal & Broacha Research Strong trends in hiring by domestic IT sector a major driver for Naukri The domestic IT sector contributes 30% to Naukri’s revenues and 50% of revenues through Recruitment Consultants come from the IT sector; which means that ~42-43% of Naukri’s are derived from domestic IT companies. The Indian IT sector witnessed hieghtened demand through 9MFY19 due to traction insegments like BFSI, Telecom and Manufacturing and healthy deal wins across the sector. Robust demand and deal wins percolated into increased hiring which in turn benefited Info Edge. Additional phenomenon like reduced campus hiring and more skill based hiring was an added growth driver. To gain perspective, additions increased by 2.5x to 15x across top 5 Teir I IT companies in 9MFY19 vs 9MFY18. Whereas the the same figure had reported a drop of 40-85% in 9MFY18 vs 9MFY17. This phenomenon is also reflected in Info Edge’s 4Q Billing CQGR which was 4.4% in Q3FY19 vs 3.1% in quarter ending Q3FY18 and 2.9% in quarter ending Q3FY17. Net Additions of Top 5 domestic companies spiked between Q1-Q3FY19 Naukri Quarterly Billing and Growth (% YoY) & % Change YoY 40000 600% 2500 30% 500% 26% 30000 25% 400% 2000 20000 21% 300% 20% 1500 19% 10000 200% 14% 15% 15% 0 100% 13% 13% 1000 12% 12% 0% 11% 10% -10000 9% -100% 500 -20000 5% -200% 1284 1982 1821 1464 1632 2163 1622 1442 1,841 1,936 2,101 -30000 -300% 0 0% Total Net Additions % Change YoY Naukri Billing (INR Mn) % Change YoY The graph above (on the left) plots the quarterly Total Net Additions of Top 5 domestic IT Services companies whereas the one to the right plots Naukri’s Quarterly Billing numbers. It is noteworthy that Naukri’s quarterly billing spiked from an average of 12-14% in Q2FY17 to Q4FY18 to an average of 20% between Q1FY19 to Q3FY19 which was directly proportional to a spike in Total Net Additions of domestic top 5 IT services companies. Info Edge (India) Ltd. April 9, 2019 Analyst: Kunal Bhatia Initiating Coverage @ Dalal & Broacha Going ahead, we believe that the IT sector will continue the past trend of healthy growth due to the following reasons: 1) Deal wins in 9MFY19 for Tier 1 IT companies have grown 2-2.5x YoY (Although Top IT companies contribute 4-5% of Naukri’s revenues, we consider the deal wins as representative sample of the outsourcing industry). For instance: a) TCS: Quarterly order win for TCS grew to $5.9 Bn in Q3FY19 vs $4.9 Bn in Q2FY19 and Q1FY19 respectively b) Infosys: Large Deal wins for Infosys grew by 104% to $4.7 Bn in 9MFY19 from $2.31 Bn in 9MFY18 2) Strong guidance in BFSI, Telecom and Manufacturing segment whereas Retail is expected to bounceback in FY20. Recruitment Management System (RMS) to provide customer stickiness In FY17, Naukri introduced a cloud based Recruitment Management system with plans of transforming the company from a purely ‘sourcing enterprise’ to a one stop solution in the form of an ERP. Info Edge rebranded all solutions such as response management, application tracking, referral hiring tooletc, which were previously under Career Site Management (CSM), into RMS in FY18. This ERP system becomes a one stop solution from requisition to offer and includes 3 products namely RMS Pro, RMS Referral and RMS Consultant. We believe that RMS (as an offering) can gain signficant traction due to Naukri’s market share in the online recruitment space. Expect Unique client additions to grow at 13% CAGR and Average Realisation per client to grow at 5% between FY18-FY21e No. of Unique Clients and Average Realization per client – Annual Trend 120000 16% 14% 100000 12% 80000 10% 60000 8% 6% 40000 4% 20000 2% 1,08,681 72,000 76,000 75,600 86,640 79,758 97,037 84,543 51,000 61,000 57,000 66,000 65,000 68,000 71,000 57,000 0 0% FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19e FY20e FY21e Average Realization / Client (INR units) No. of Unique Clients YoY Growth (%) YoY Growth (%) Info Edge’s Average Realization per Client stood at INR 72,000 as of FY18 and has recorded a 5 year CAGR of 5.2%; Client Additions have grown at a faster pace of 9.6% 10 year CAGR to a total of 76000 unique clients. Going ahead, given strong hiring trends and robust deal pipeline in the IT sector we expect client additions to grow at a higher CAGR of 13% between FY18 and FY21e and Average Realization/client to grow at similar level of 5% CAGR in the same period.
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