INFO EDGE Recruitment Continues to Disappoint
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RESULT UPDATE INFO EDGE Recruitment continues to disappoint India Equity Research| IT Info Edge’s (IEL) Q2FY14 revenue at INR1,230mn was below our EDELWEISS 4D RATINGS estimated INR1,268mn. However, EBITDA margin at 35.5%, jumped Absolute Rating REDUCE 500bps QoQ primarily due to lower S&M expenses. Disappointment in Rating Relative to Sector Underperformer recruitment continued as it posted a tepid 8.3% YoY revenue growth (up Risk Rating Relative to Sector Medium 0.2% QoQ). Though IEL does not anticipate a pick-up in hiring activity in Sector Relative to Market Overweight the near term, decent recruitment by IT companies and market share gains are supporting growth. Non-recruitment segments grew 45% YoY MARKET DATA (R: INED.BO, B: INFOE IN) and the management intends to invest further in these to provide growth CMP : INR 345 impetus. We do not perceive any uptick in hiring activities given the Target Price : INR 310 uncertain macro environment. We maintain ‘REDUCE’ with TP of INR310 52-week range (INR) : 405 / 276 (19x FY15E Standalone EPS). Share in issue (mn) : 109.2 M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 38/ 621 Naukri continues to disappoint Avg. Daily Vol.BSE/NSE(‘000) : 92.2 Hiring activity has been slow given the sustained uncertain macro environment which is amply reflected from Naukri’s YoY subdued growth (below 20% in past six quarters). SHARE HOLDING PATTER N (%) However, the management stated decent recruitment by IT companies and market Current Q1FY14 Q4FY13 share gains are supporting growth. Revenue from this segment grew 8.3% YoY, with Promoters * 52.2 52.2 52.2 operating margin at 50.7% (50.3% in Q1FY14). Further, deferred sales revenue, a lead MF's, FI's & BK’s 13.1 13.1 13.0 FII's 23.0 23.0 23.5 indicator of recruitment revenue, declined 7.6% YoY to INR1.21bn in Q2FY14. It plans to continue investing in product development to gain higher market share. Others 11.8 11.8 11.3 * Promoters pledged shares : NIL (% of share in issue) 99acres continues to fuel growth Traction continued in 99acres as it grew 57% YoY to INR185mn in Q2FY14. We expect PRIC E PERFORMANCE (%) this segment to drive growth in the near term. The management is planning to invest EW further in this segment for product development and a scale-up in operations. Total Stock Nifty Technology Index listings on the portal scaled up to 685,000 (up 42% YoY) in Q2FY14. 1 month 11.7 4.6 9.1 Outlook and valuations: Slow pace persists; maintain ‘REDUCE’ 3 months 10.1 3.7 23.8 12 months (4.3) 11.1 50.0 IEL seems to be hit by the sustained slowdown in hiring activity over the last six quarters and we do not expect any improvement in the macro environment in the near term. While the non recruitment segment is gaining traction, its smaller scale is unlikely to offset the slow growth in recruitment business. The stock is trading at P/E of 21.2x FY15E (standalone), which we deem to be expensive. Maintain ‘ REDUCE/ SU’ with TP of INR310. Sandip Agarwal Financials (Standalone) (INR mn) +91 22 6623 3474 Year to March Q2FY14 Q1FY14 Growth % Q2FY13 Growth % YTD14 FY14E FY15E [email protected] Revenue 1,230 1,208 1.9 1,078 14.1 2,438 5,029 6,232 Omkar Hadkar EBITDA 436 369 18.3 370 17.8 805 1,757 2,250 +91 22 6620 3147 Net profit 333 294 13.1 333 (0.2) 627 1,396 1,778 [email protected] Diluted EPS (INR) 3.0 2.7 13.1 3.1 (0.2) 5.7 12.8 16.3 Deepansu Jain Diluted P/E (x) 36.8 27.0 21.2 +91 22 4040 7576 [email protected] EV/EBITDA (x) 23.1 18.8 14.2 Market cap / Rev. (x) 8.6 7.5 6.0 October 18, 2013 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com, Edelweiss Securities Limited Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. IT Chart 1: Deferred sales revenue down QoQ 1,500 70.0 1,200 56.0 900 42.0 (%) (INR mn) (INR 600 28.0 300 14.0 0 0.0 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Deferred sales revenue YoY growth Chart 2: Recruitment revenue (YoY) growth continues to be subdued 920 35.0 820 28.0 720 21.0 (%.) ( INR mn) INR ( 620 14.0 520 7.0 420 0.0 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Revenues YoY growth Chart 3: Revenue and EBITDA loss trend in non-recruitment segments 360 Q214 288 Q114 Q413 216 Q313 Q213 (INR mn) (INR 144 Q113 Q412 72 Q312 0 (108.0) (90.0) (72.0) (54.0) (36.0) (18.0) 0.0 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 (INR mn) Source: Company 2 Edelweiss Securities Limited Info Edge Chart 4: Uptrend continues in number of listings, paid transactions in 99acres.com 700 18.0 560 15.0 420 12.0 ( '000) ( 280 9.0 '000) ( 140 6.0 0 3.0 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 No. of total listings No of paid transactions (RHS) Chart 5: Average revenue per client surge during the quarter in Jeevansathi.com 30,000 4,000 24,000 3,500 18,000 3,000 (INR) (Nos.) 12,000 2,500 6,000 2,000 0 1,500 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Unique paid customers Avg. revenue per client (RHS) Chart 6: Jobspeak index subdued this quarter 1,500 1,200 900 600 (Jobspeak index) (Jobspeak 300 0 Jul 13 Jul Jan 13 Jan Jun 13 Jun Oct 12 Oct Apr13 Feb 13 Feb 13 Sep Dec12 Aug 13 Aug Nov 12 Nov Mar 13 Mar May 13 May Source: Company 3 Edelweiss Securities Limited IT Financial snapshot (INR mn) Year to March Q2FY14 Q1FY14 % Change Q2FY13 % Change YTD14 FY14E FY15E Net revenues 1,230 1,208 1.9 1,078 14.1 2,438 5,029 6,232 Network & other charges 45 41 8.7 36 25.0 86 169 187 Staff costs 475 472 0.7 411 15.6 947 1,932 2,306 Direct costs 520 513 1.4 447 16.3 1,033 2,101 2,493 Gross profit 710 695 2.2 631 12.5 1,405 2,928 3,739 S&m expenses 139 197 (29.4) 138 1.1 337 649 841 G&a expenses 134 129 4.4 123 9.4 263 522 648 EBITDA 436 369 18.3 370 17.8 805 1,757 2,250 Depreciation 40 40 (0.2) 20 93.5 79 131 190 EBIT 397 329 20.6 350 13.4 726 1,627 2,059 Other income 97 134 (27.5) 112 (13.5) 231 446 518 Profit before tax 488 458 6.7 456 7.1 946 2,061 2,577 Tax 155 137 13.0 123 26.7 293 639 799 Core profit 333 320 3.9 333 (0.2) 653 1,422 1,778 Exceptionals - 26 (100.0) - - 26 - Net profit 333 294 13.1 333 (0.2) 627 1,396 1,778 Diluted EPS (INR) 3.0 2.7 13.1 3.1 (0.2) 5.7 12.8 16.3 As % of net revenues Gross profit 57.7 57.5 58.5 57.6 58.2 60.0 SG&A 22.3 27.0 24.2 24.6 23.3 23.9 EBITDA 35.5 30.5 34.3 33.0 34.9 36.1 EBIT 32.3 27.2 32.5 29.8 32.3 33.0 Reported net profit 27.0 24.4 30.9 25.7 27.8 28.5 Tax rate 31.8 30.0 26.9 31.0 31.0 31.0 4 Edelweiss Securities Limited Info Edge Company Description IEL is amongst India’s leading online classified companies, with presence in online recruitment, matrimony, real estate, and offline executive search. It pioneered the online recruitment business under its flagship brand Naukri.com and operates offline recruitment business under the Quadrangle brand. The company’s online matrimony and real estate divisions operate under Jeevansathi.com and 99acres.com, respectively, and are currently in investment mode. New launches include Firstnaukri.com (fresher recruitment site), Brijj.com (professional networking site), asknaukri.com (career guidance website), and shiksha.com (education information portal). IEL’s TTM revenue is INR4.7bn and, employee strength of 2,722 people. Investment theme IEL is a long term play on the internet space in India. With lead in the online recruitment market (through Naukri.com) and presence in the online classified space has the potential to establish a market leading position and grab large pie of increasing online adoption. As various businesses come out of the recent slowdown we see recruitment industry to grow significantly as it is highly correlated to the economic health of the growth of domestic corporate sector. We expect IEL’s earnings growth at 20% CAGR over FY13-15E. However, we see the valuations at P/E of 21.2x and EV/EBITDA of 14.2x FY15E as expensive. Key Risks Faster than anticipated scale up of non-recruitment segments Strong profitability from investee companies. 5 Edelweiss Securities Limited IT Financial Statements Key Assumptions Income statement (INR mn) Year to March FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Year to March FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Macro Net revenue 3,756 4,362 5,029 6,232 GDP(Y -o-Y %) 6.2 5.0 4.8 6.0 Cost of revenues 1,463 1,812 2,101 2,493 Inflation (Avg) 8.9 7.4 6.0 6.0 Gross profit 2,293 2,551 2,928 3,739 Repo rate (exit rate) 8.5 7.5 7.8 7.0 S&M expenses 516 577 649 841 USD/INR (Avg) 48.0 54.5 62.0 60.0 G&A expenses 369 492 522 648 Company EBITDA 1,408 1,482 1,757 2,250 Naukri Depreciation & Amortization 77 94 131 190 No.