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Market Outlook June 1, 2021 Other Product offerings Derivatives Strategy Underlying Action Nifty - Derivatives View Siemens Buy Daily view Weekly view Duration : 1-2 months • PRODUCT 1 Click here to see open calls Quant (Derivatives) Pick Stock recommendations in report Underlying Action Action Scrip Target 1 Target 2 Stoploss Time frame HDFC Buy Buy KOTMAH June Fut at | 1814.00-1816.00 Kotak Mahindra Bank 1837.5 1871.3 1792.5 Intraday L&T Buy Sell INFEDG June Fut at | 4350.00-4360.00 Info Edge 4283.0 4175.0 4427.0 Intraday Axis Bank Buy Buy NIFFIN June Fut at | 16500.00-16550.00 FINNIFTY 16700.0 16800.0 16400.0 Intraday Duration : 1-3 months Buy ULTCEM June Fut at | 6590.00-6610.00 Ultratech Cement 7000.0 6395.0 Weekly Click here to see open calls For Instant• PRODUCTstock ideas: 2 Retail Equity Research Equity Retail SUBSCRIBE to mobile notification – on ICICIdirect Mobile app… Research Analysts Raj Deepak Singh Nandish Patel Securities ICICI [email protected] [email protected] Dipesh Dedhia Siddhesh Jain [email protected] [email protected] Intraday Outlook: Buy Bank Nifty in the range of 35300-35400 Index Outlook Nifty Future The Nifty is expected to trade between 15400 and 15800 amid high volatility. Sell Nifty 15400 Put (June 3 expiry) in the range of | 43-45 Target: | 29-19 Stop loss : | 59 Bank Nifty Future The Bank Nifty continued its upward move for a third consecutive trading session as it closed with gain of more than 0.80%. Looking at options data, we see option position got shifted from 35000 to 35500 as both Call and Put option at that Derivatives View Derivatives strike witnessed healthy OI addition, which should act as anchor point. Buy Bank Nifty in the range of 35300-35400 Target: 35600-35700 Stop loss: 35100 F&O Highlights The Nifty witnessed a volatile session where it recovered from lower levels and closed with a gain of more than 0.77%. Advance decline ratio was in favour of bulls. As per options data, healthy OI addition was seen in Put option across major strikes especially at 15400 and 15500 strike, which should act as support on the downside Stock Analysis Long build-up/short covering: Kotak Mahindra Bank, SAIL, JSW Steel, Siemens, Cipla, Asian Paints and Voltas Short build-up/profit booking: Glenmark, Federal Bank, Indigo Aviation, HDFC Life, Info Edge and AU Bank FIIs & DII Action FIIs bought | 2412 crore while DIIs bought | 180 crore in the cash segment. FIIs sold index futures worth | 690 crore while in index options they bought | 2624 crore. In the stock futures segment, they sold | 201 crore Fr Intraday Recommendations Retail Equity Research Equity Retail – i) Kotak Mahindra Bank ii) Info Edge 22 ```` Note: Buy KOTMAH June Fut at | 1814.00-1816.00 Sell INFEDG June Fut at | 4350.00-4360.00 Note: Call initiation message will be broadcast on iclick-2- CMP: 1811.75 CMP: 4371.65 gain, if it is not initiated in Target 1: 1837.5 Target 2: 1871.3 Target 1: 4283 Target 2: 4175 opening session, then we Securities ICICI might initiate with revise levels Stop Loss: 1792.5 Stop Loss: 4427 on iclick-2-gain. Source: NSE, Seediff, Bloomberg ICICI Direct Research June 1, 2021 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Daily Nifty Snapshot Highlights of the last session & Pivot Levels Nifty futures ended at Spot Fut Basis Future OI PCR OI PCR Vol ATM IV a premium of 0 points Current 15583 15583 0 11388325 1.61 1.20 16.89 while IV was down Previous 15436 15464 28 11114450 1.52 1.32 17.40 3.02% Change (%) 0.95% 0.77% - 2.46% - - -3.02% S3 S2 S1 Piv R1 R2 R3 Nifty future 15294 15341 15462 15531 15652 15721 15768 Bank Nifty future 34705 34852 35227 35439 35814 36026 36172 Weekly Nifty Options OI build-up 45 Call OI Put OI 40 The major Put base is at 35 15500 strike with 42 lakh 30 shares while the major Call OI in OILacs in 25 base is at the 15700 strike 20 15 with 27 lakh shares 10 5 0 Retail Equity Research Equity Retail 15300 15800 15900 15400 15500 15600 15700 Note: Index/ Stocks calls may be changed, if – view differs during market hours and Strategy follow up positional recommendations given in Derivatives Strategyxshould not be linked to Date Stock View Strategy Reco Target SL P&L Comment intraday index/stock calls. 31-May-21 GRASIM Buy Long Fut 1477.0 1495.9 1458.1 8978 Target Achieved Securities ICICI 31-May-21 MAHGAS Sell Short Fut 1181.0 1166.0 1196.0 - Not initiated Back Source: NSE, Seediff, Bloomberg ICICI Direct Research June 1, 2021 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 3 Recommended Stocks : Historical price performance… price Historical : Stocks Recommended June 1, June2021 Source: NSE, Seediff , Bloomberg Bloomberg , ICICI Direct Research Direct ICICI ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Equity | Retail SecuritiesLtd. ICICI Kotak Mahindra Bank Mahindra Kotak Info Edge Info 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 31-Jul-20 31-Jul-19 31-Jan-20 31-Jan-21 30-Sep-20 30-Sep-19 30-Nov-19 30-Nov-20 31-Mar-20 31-Mar-21 31-May-21 31-May-19 31-May-20 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 31-Jul-19 31-Jul-20 31-Jan-20 31-Jan-21 30-Sep-19 30-Sep-20 30-Nov-19 30-Nov-20 31-Mar-20 31-Mar-21 31-May-19 31-May-20 31-May-21 4 ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research Weekly Recommendation Weekly future recommendation : Long UltraTech Cement (ULTCEM) June future in range of | 6590-6610; Target: | 7000; Stop Loss: | 6395 Rationale Most cement stocks remained in a range and consolidated in the expiry week. Leaders like UltraTech Cement witnessed highest ever delivery volumes in the last one year on the expiry day. The OI in the stock is gradually declining, which is a positive sign as fresh upsides are expected. The highest Call base for the stock is at | 7000, which should be looked as a target. We feel risk-reward is favourable in the stock from current levels. DerivativesView Weekly Price performance 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Research Equity Retail – 14-Jul-19 14-Jul-20 14-Oct-19 14-Oct-20 14-Apr-20 14-Apr-21 14-Feb-20 14-Feb-21 14-Jan-20 14-Jan-21 14-Jun-20 14-Jun-19 14-Sep-19 14-Sep-20 14-Dec-19 14-Dec-20 14-Nov-19 14-Nov-20 14-Aug-19 14-Aug-20 14-Mar-20 14-Mar-21 14-May-20 14-May-19 Recommendation follow up Underlying View Strategy Reco Target Stoploss Profit/Loss Comment ICICI Securities Securities ICICI Piramal Enterprises Bullish Buy Futures 1725.0 1850.0 1645.0 1375 Exit at cost Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research 5 June 1, 2021 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Nifty: Momentum likely to continue towards 15500 The Nifty made a new lifetime high on Friday amid continued performance from index heavyweights last week primarily from the technology space. Apart from metal and pharma, almost every sectoral index closed in the green. Midcap and small cap indices also gained more than 1% each. Going ahead, we expect some consolidation in the index with support near 15100 in the coming week Going ahead, sustainability of 15200 will be crucial in the short-term as it is the highest Put base for the weekly settlement. On the other hand, a move above 15500, may open room for continued momentum. However, in the coming week, we are expecting the Nifty to remain in the range of 15200-15500 On the rollover front, both the Nifty and Bank Nifty have started the new series with relatively high open interest in the June series. Net long positions from FIIs are the highest seen since March 2021 while the short open interest from FIIs is all-time low. Thus, a round of long liquidation cannot be ruled out, which may prompt some short build-up in the system From a stock options point of view also, most index heavyweights are starting the new series with their Call base at ATM strikes. Heavyweights from the technology and banking space are witnessing significant writing at their ATM strikes. Hence, a round of pause is expected in the Nifty in the short-term Nifty options OI build-up 40 Call OI Put OI 35 30 Research Equity Retail – 25 20 OI in Lacsin OI 15 10 Securities ICICI 5 Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research 0 June 1, 2021 15000ICICI Securities15100 15200 Ltd. | Retail15300 Equity15400 Research15500 15600 15700 15800 6 Bank Nifty: Likely to consolidate post sharp up move Broader indices continued their up move in the May series where the Bank Nifty outperformed with decent margins. Most private banks exhibited a strong recovery whereas post the quarterly numbers of SBI, all PSU banks attracted money inflow Rollover was marginally higher for the June series where the Bank Nifty started the month with relatively higher OI. Rollover spread towards the end increased marginally, indicating long rollovers for the June series However, private banks as well as PSU leaders started the June series near their highest Call bases, which is a sign of caution. We feel the index will consolidate unless we do not see major closure in Call OI positions Major Call OI base is placed at 35500 strike followed by 36000 strike whereas sizeable positions are open in 35000 strike Straddle indicating possible consolidation.
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