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Starters Economic Outlook Recent Research Current Research 1997/4 CCPPR BB E P O R T STARTERS CURRENT RESEARCH When in doubt, deregulate? How efficient is Dutch electricity generation? 45 Eric Bartelsman 3 Maurice Dykstra ACTIVITIES ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Workshops The world economy: short-term developments 5 • Assessing infrastructure projects 48 The Dutch economy: short-term developments 7 Ernst van Koesveld and Pim van Santen • Challenging Neighbours 50 The world economy: medium-term prospects 13 Hans Timmer The Dutch economy: medium-term prospects 14 • Regulating Dutch tele-competition 52 Sectoral developments in the Dutch economy: Paul Arnoldus medium-term prospects 17 Seminar series 54 Note on unemployment definitions 19 FORUM RECENT RESEARCH Challenging partners 56 Detecting relevant policy issues on Bart van Ark competition and regulation 20 Harold Creusen Scanning CPB: A view from the outside 57 Anton Barten Economic effects of liberalizing shop opening hours in the Netherlands 24 Yvonne Bernardt How competitive is the Dutch coffee market? 27 RECENT PUBLICATIONS Leon Bettendorf and Frank Verboven Working papers 59 Competition in communication and Research memoranda 59 information services 30 Publications about forecasting activities 59 Marcel Canoy Special publication 59 Competition in health care: Ordering information 60 A Dutch experiment 34 Eric Bartelsman and Philip ten Cate Assessing the economy-wide effects of deregulation 39 ECONOMIC INDICATORS Ate Nieuwenhuis Basic statistics of the Netherlands 61 Competition and welfare 42 Tables 62 Jan Boone Explanations to Tables 68 _CPRB B E P O R T 97/4 2 S eason’s greetings and best wishes for 1998 STARTERS _CPR B B E P O R T 97/4 When in doubt, deregulate? “As an advice-giving profession we are in way over our heads.” Robert E. Lucas* Regulatory reform, privatization, and competition policy have been embraced by policy makers in the Netherlands during the 1990s. Competitive markets and the information contained in market prices have been accepted by economists as important tools for coordination of individual actions in a decentralized economy for far longer. Unfortunately, policy makers’ actions and their desired effects may not coincide with economists’ tools and their expected outcomes derived under specific conditions. Unleashing competitive forces enhances efficiency, lowers 3 prices and speeds innovation, if certain assumptions hold. Privatization, removal of entry barriers, prohibition of collusion, and reduction of governmental interventions boost economic growth, unless they don’t... The mismatch between policy makers’ requirements for real-world advice in real-time and economists’ predilection for circumscribed theoretical constructs made upon reflection is not a new phenomenon. The abuse of Keynesian theories through the policy rule-of-thumb “when in doubt, stimulate demand” led to stagflation and structural fiscal deficits. What may be the economic outcome if modern regulation theories were abused through “when in doubt, deregulate?” Rather than wait for such a future, CPB conducts research on issues related to competition and translates results into a form that may aid policy makers in making informed choices. A selection of the research is included in this special theme issue of CPB Report. The analyses attempt to find novel policy combinations to cope with market or government failure and try to bring to the foreground the trade-offs inherent in political choices. The research methodology at CPB in the area of competition is eclectic, as perusal of the articles will reveal. Case studies can highlight the pros and cons of various policy measures that strengthen market mechanisms. An analytical framework designed at CPB points researchers to the industrial organization models appropriate for study of a particular market. The case studies presented here not only provide sector-specific detail, but also are prototypes of research into Eric more generic questions. The retrospective analysis of liberalization of shop-opening hours is an example of a study Bartelsman, economic to monitor the effects of past policy changes. The empirical analysis of pricing in the coffee market displays a method advisor at to flag noncompetitive pricing behavior. The study of the communication and information sector shows how CPB, coordinates scenarios can be used to evaluate the future effects of policy choices. The case study on health care applies competition- combinations of market and non-market mechanisms to improve the position on trade-offs. A summary of the related work aggregate effects of intensified competition using two different macroeconomic models available at CPB uncovers the at CPB and is a member of need for special purpose models. A step towards meeting the need is provided in an article that reveals the effects of CPB Report’s a change in competition on industry structure and welfare by means of small theoretical model. editorial board. Overall, research at CPB shows that significant efficiency gains can be reaped by relying more on market mechanisms in a wide variety of areas in the Dutch economy. Our responsibility to policy makers lies in communicating the obstacles that need to be overcome and the trade-offs associated with policy choices. Policy makers, for their part, have the responsibility to make the difficult choices. Eric J. Bartelsman * Robert E. Lucas, 1981, “Rules, discretion, and the role of the economic advisor,” p.259, in Studies in Business-Cycle Theory, MIT Press, Cambridge. _CPRB B E P O R T 97/4 4 The cut-off date used in the compilation of the projec- tions in ECONOMIC OUTLOOK was end November. C R B B E P O R T ECONOMIC OUTLOOK _P 97/4 The world economy: the period ahead. In the third quarter, domestic demand grew strongly. High confidence reflected strong employ- short-term developments* ment rises, with unemployment falling below the level generally considered to be the natural rate. Net exports fell Abstract further, reflecting dollar appreciation as well as stronger Recent short-term forecasts for the world economy domestic demand than abroad. Despite low unemploy- project a continuing strong growth of world output in ment, inflation has remained low, with consumer prices combination with low inflation. In fact, the views have rising by only 2¼% year on year, falling producer prices and not changed much during the past three to six months. the lowest rise in unit labor costs for years. Cheap oil and The unchanged assessment for the world economy is computer chips and the stronger dollar contributed to the 5 remarkable in view of the unexpected cyclical develop- favorable inflation picture. ments in major industrial countries and major shocks in the Asian area. Japanese recovery delayed Some strengthening of economic activity in Japan can be Samenvatting expected, given the competitive yen, low interest costs and De jongste ramingen voor de wereldeconomie behelzen less fiscal restraint. The current problems in the financial een aanhoudend krachtige groei van de wereldproductie sphere, however, may delay the rebound of activity. Indeed, gecombineerd met een lage inflatie. In de afgelopen drie the recovery has been quite erratic ever since it began in tot zes maanden zijn de inzichten omtrent de wereld als mid-1993. Last year’s strong growth was followed by a geheel opvallend weinig veranderd, in het licht van het good first quarter, but private consumption fell sharply in onverwachte conjunctuurverloop in enkele grote the second quarter of this year due to the consumption tax industrielanden en de aanzienlijke schokken in de hike from 3 to 5% in April. Consumption has remained slug- Aziatische regio. gish, although the impact of the tax increase is gradually subsiding. Net exports and corporate investment, in con- trast, have been supporting economic activity. Thus, in- Recent developments come and employment conditions have improved, which International stock markets plummeted in October, and the favors an early recovery of consumers’ expenditure. Next Asian area has been hit by a financial crisis. The US and the year may bring a gradual economic recovery, if private UK economies showed unexpected strong growth, while consumption and exports cooperate. Net exports have optimism about the Japanese recovery has dwindled. In contributed much to the recovery of the past two years. continental Europe the recovery is gathering momentum However, export prospects have become less bright due to as expected. Noteworthy developments concerning EMU the Asian financial crisis. As far as prices are concerned, the include the growing determination of EU governments to depressing effect of cheaper imports has weakened. Do- start EMU in time with a widespread participation, and the mestic wholesale prices, however, have remained under British decision not to join in the first wave. downward pressure, reflecting stock adjustment and inno- vation-induced cost reductions of electrical goods. Favorable prospects for the industrial world Overall growth in the industrial world will remain favorable, European upswing continues with real GDP expanding at 2¾% this year and 2½% next. In continental Europe, exports will remain supportive next Inflation in the industrial countries will remain muted. Spare year, given strong expected market growth and improved capacity is large in much of the area, in particular in conti- competitiveness. Nevertheless, the impulses will increas- nental Europe and Japan. In continental Europe, consumer ingly come from domestic demand, in response to low in- price inflation rates have largely converged at slightly terest rates and strengthening confidence of households above 1½%, and next year’s rates will not be much higher. and companies. In the UK, however, the top of the cycle Japan’s inflation rate hovers around ½%. Both US and UK may have been reached now, due to the combination of economies face considerable uncertainty about how close tight fiscal and monetary policies and a less competitive activity is to the point at which demand pressure would sterling. Output has continued to grow at an annual rate of ignite inflation. Inflation may pick up somewhat in the UK about 4% in the third quarter.
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