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Siam Commercial Bank Thailand Company Guide Siam Commercial Bank Version 12 | Bloomberg: SCB TB | Reuters: SCB.BK Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 20 Jan 2020 FULLY VALUED (Downgrade from HOLD) Escalating risks Last Traded Price ( 17 Jan 2020): Bt117 (SET : 1,600.48) Thesis. Asset quality still an issue to watch. On top of high Price Target 12-mth: Bt104 (11% downside) (Prev Bt128) operating costs (from the bank’s transformation project) as Analyst well as an elevated cost-to-income ratio (as revenue growth Thaninee SATIRAREUNGCHAI, CFA +662 857 7837 may not keep up with higher costs), our concern on asset [email protected] quality remains. Over the past few years, SCB’s asset quality has proven to be problematic. Recently, (another) one of its big corporate clients has just defaulted, and the bank had to What’s New provide a sizeable credit cost for such loans. Besides, with the • 4Q19 net profit came in at Bt5.5bn (-22.3% y-o-y; - bank’s strategy to seek higher yields from higher-risk 62.8% q-o-q), 45% below Bloomberg consensus, unsecured lending and small SME loans, it will incur higher taking FY19 earnings to Bt40.4bn (+0.9% y-o-y) credit costs that will add more pressure on its bottom line. • Asset quality deteriorated: NPL ratio rose to 3.41% at Where we differ. Market underestimates SCB’s operating end-FY19, vs. 2.85% at end-FY18 costs. Though SCB has guided for declining cost-to-income • FY20F earnings cut by 9% ratio, citing it can monetise those acquired digital customers and can grow revenue faster than costs, we keep our high • Downgrade to FULLY VALUED with a lower TP of Bt104 cost-to-income ratio assumption for FY20F. Potential catalysts. Cost savings kick in faster than Price Relative expected. SCB’s heavy investment in its transformation projects and massive expenses on its marketing campaign to acquire new digital customers should eventually lower the banks’ operating costs and lift its CASA, thus reducing its funding costs. If these cost savings kick in sooner than expected, we (as well as consensus) will have to revise our earnings estimates. Valuation: We downgrade SCB to FULLY VALUED (from HOLD), given our escalating concerns on the bank’s asset quality and operating Forecasts and Valuation costs, as well as its weaker earnings growth in FY20F. Our new TP FY Dec (Btm) 2018A 2019A 2020F 2021F is based on 0.85x FY20F BV, implying -2SD to its LT average PBV. Pre-prov. Profit 73,539 95,529 68,973 72,500 Net Profit 40,068 40,436 35,424 37,603 Key Risks to Our View: Net Pft (Pre Ex.) 40,068 40,436 35,424 37,603 Better-than-expected cost management, asset quality, and Net Pft Gth (Pre-ex) (%) (7.1) 0.9 (12.4) 6.2 loan demand will present upside risks to our forecasts. In the EPS (Bt) 11.8 11.9 10.4 11.1 EPS Pre Ex. (Bt) 11.8 11.9 10.4 11.1 meantime, if the economy takes too long to recover or the EPS Gth Pre Ex (%) (7) 1 (12) 6 investment cycle is delayed, there could be downside risks to Diluted EPS (Bt) 11.8 11.9 10.4 11.1 SCB’s loan and earnings growth, as well as its asset quality. PE Pre Ex. (X) 9.9 9.8 11.2 10.6 Net DPS (Bt) 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 At A Glance Div Yield (%) 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 Issued Capital (m shrs) 3,396 ROAE Pre Ex. (%) 10.8 10.4 8.7 8.8 Mkt. Cap (Btm/US$m) 397,283 / 13,070 ROAE (%) 10.8 10.4 8.7 8.8 Major Shareholders (%) ROA (%) 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 His Majesty King Maha Vajiralongkorn 23.38 BV Per Share (Bt) 112 118 123 128 VayupakBodindradebayavarangkun Fund 23.12 P/Book Value (x) 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 Thai NVDR 9.11 Earnings Rev (%): (9) - Free Float (%) 73.95 Consensus EPS (Bt): 12.9 12.1 13.0 3m Avg. Daily Val (US$m) 34.4 Other Broker Recs: B: 20 S: 2 H: 7 GIC Industry : Financial / Banks Bloomberg ESG disclosure score (2018)^ 43.9 Source of all data on this page: Company, DBSVTH, Bloomberg Finance L.P. - Environmental / Social / Governance 33.9 / 45.0 / 62.5 for Environmental, Social and Governance, respectively. ed: KK/ sa: PY, CS Company Guide Siam Commercial Bank WHAT’S NEW Asset quality deteriorated further Results came in below expectations. 4Q19 net profit came in loans (personal loans and credit card receivables) expanded at Bt5.5bn (-22.3% y-o-y; -62.8% q-o-q), 43% below our 24.5% to Bt136bn, in line with the bank’s strategy to grow forecast and 45% below Bloomberg consensus, taking FY19 high-margin loans; meanwhile, auto loans expanded 7.9% to earnings to Bt40.4bn (+0.9% y-o-y), 9% below expectations. Bt219bn, thanks to strong new car sales in 1H19 and ‘My The higher-than-expected provision in 4Q19 was the key Car, My Cash’ loans. reason for the disappointing results. In terms of loan breakdown, retail loans accounted for 47.6% Operating earnings (PPOP) dropped 6.4% in FY19. Pre- of total loans; corporate loans 35.8%, and SME loans at provision operating profit (PPOP) came in at Bt14.7bn (- 16.6%. Of the retail loans, 64.5% were housing loans 12.8% y-o-y; -13.1% q-o-q) in 4Q19. The decline was due (30.7% of total loans), 21.8% were auto loans (10.3% of mainly to higher operating expenses (+14.6% y-o-y and total loans), and 13.5% were unsecured loans (6.4% of total +5.2% q-o-q). Such increases were attributed to higher staff loans). costs (from changing mix of skillsets), higher amortisation of Asset quality deteriorated further. Non-performing loans software licence, higher depreciation from transformation (NPLs) increased 10.4% q-o-q and 21.1% y-o-y to Bt85.2bn projects, and IT-related expenses. at end-FY19. The increase was due to the deterioration of FY19 PPOP also declined by 6.4% to Bt66.1bn, attributed to loan quality across all segments from the economic situation (i) lower gain on trading and FX transactions, (ii) lower and the bank’s qualitative loan classification of some dividend income, (iii) lower net insurance premiums (i.e. the corporate and SME customers. NPL ratio increased to 3.41% net insurance premiums were Bt682m in FY18 vs. negative at end-FY19, vs. 3.01% at end-3Q19 and 2.85% at end- Bt396m in FY19; note that SCB sold SCB Life and booked the FY18. Bt24bn one-time gain on sales in 3Q19), and (iv) higher New NPL formation in FY19 trended up significantly across all operating expenses (from higher staff costs, mainly from the segments (except for housing loans). In 4Q19, new NPL Bt1.4bn one-time adjustment of employee benefits recorded formation remained high and was attributed to the bank’s in 1Q19, higher amortisation of software licence, and higher qualitative classification of some corporate and SME depreciation from transformation programs). customers, as well as the deterioration of certain SME and Nonetheless, NII expanded in FY19, thanks to NIM expansion retail portfolios. (+13.6bps) following the bank’s strategy to grow high margin Special mention loans also increased 20.4% y-o-y from the loans, despite their standard lending rates (i.e. MOR and SME and retail (particularly auto loans) segments but MRR) cuts in 2H19. decreased 0.5% q-o-q to Bt65bn at end-FY19. Fee income expanded 25.8% y-o-y and 14.0% q-o-q in Such deteriorated asset quality resulted in a high credit cost 4Q19, and 4.3% in FY19, thanks particularly to the new of 180bps (i.e. Bt9.6bn) in 4Q19, driving up FY19 credit cost source of fee income generated by the bancassurance to 170bps (vs. 167bps in FY18). Coverage ratio however partnership with FWD, as well as mutual fund fees. decreased to 134.1% at end-FY19, vs. 143.8% at end-3Q19 With that, in 4Q19, non-NII also increased 34.4% y-o-y but and 146.7% at end-FY18. declined 64.8% q-o-q (as SCB booked the Bt24bn one-time Announced a special dividend of Bt0.75/share. SCB gain on sales of SCB Life in 3Q19); non-NII rose 59.3% in announced a special interim dividend of Bt0.75/share, FY19. following its sales of SCB Life in 3Q19, to be paid on 14 Feb FY19 loans contracted by 1.3% y-o-y. On a q-o-q basis, loan 2020. XD is on 30 Jan 2020. The bank also changed its contraction in 4Q19 was due to the corporate segment (- dividend payment policy from “approximately 30-50% of 5.4%), while retail (+0.6%) and SME (+0.1%) loans were flat. consolidated annual net profit” to “not less than 30% of Of the retail loans, however, unsecured loans grew strongly consolidated annual net profit”. 8.6%, while auto loans (-1.4%) and housing loans (-0.3%) Note that the bank already paid the Bt1.50/share interim decreased. dividend (for its 1H19 performance) on 13 Sep 2019, while On a y-o-y basis, the contraction was attributed mainly to the final dividend will be announced in April 2020 (after its corporate loan repayment (-9.0%), while retail (+4.0%) and AGM).
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