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SCB) Rating: BUY Fair Price: Bt130.0 Close Price: Bt109.5

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SCB) Rating: BUY Fair Price: Bt130.0 Close Price: Bt109.5 Company Update Thursday, September 23, 2021 I V Global Securities Public Company Limited Siam Commercial Bank Plc (SCB) Rating: BUY Fair price: Bt130.0 Close price: Bt109.5 Transforming to a holding company, SCB X Pcl Company Information Event: SCB’s board of directors has proposed that shareholders consider and Ticker: SCB TB approve the SCB Financial Business Group Restructuring Plan, ahead of the Sector: Financials scheduled extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on 15 Nov 2021. The Shares outstanding (m): 3,395.63 Market capitalization (Btm): 371,821.78 key message is to get approval for the share swap of SCB with the new Trading vol/day (‘000 shares): 13,568.34 company, SCB X Public Co. (SCBX). The transaction would only be successful if Free float (%): 76.61 at least 90% of the total number of voting rights are swapped. The share swap Beta: 1.26 ratio is at one (SCB) for one (SCBX). If it succeeds, SCB would be delisted and SCB X would be listed instead with a similar market capitalization value. Restructuring rationale. SCBX would be positioned as a holding company Major Shareholders while SCB would become a subsidiary of SCBX. There would be three business His Majesty King Maha Vajiralongkorn groups under SCBX: Bodindradebayavarangkun 23.38% Vayupak Fund I 23.12% a) The core banking services (i.e., SCB banking business, asset management, Thai NVDR 8.91% insurance and Julius Baer b) Consumer finance and digital financial services with several subsidiaries, Auto X, Alpha X, Card X and SCB Securities c) Digital platform and technology services; SCB10X, CPG-SCB VC Fund, Consensus Bloomberg AISCB JV, SCB Abacus, Digital Ventures, Purple Ventures, Token X, Monix, 2021F EPS (Bt): 9.73 SCB Tech X, and Data X Target price (Bt): 119.58 In the early years of restructuring, core banking services would contribute 85- Price Performance 90% of SCBX’s consolidated earnings. Over the next five years, the non-banking 52 Wk high/low: 114.00/60.00 group is targeted to contribute one-third of total earnings. Initially, SCBX would be funded from SCB paying out special dividends of Bt70bn. The dividend pay-out ratio of SCBX would be similar to SCB’s. 1M 3M 1Y YTD Absolute (%) 5.3 11.2 64.0 25.1 While the new subsidiaries would get initial funding support from SCB X, the Relative (%) 3.2 9.5 37.0 13.4 future business model of each entity should allow them to raise their own funds, if needed. The newly set-up venture capital fund with a target size of US$600-800m with 150 Charoen Pokphand Group (CPG) is designed to invest in financial technology businesses such as blockchain, decentralized finance, and other emerging 125 technologies. The initial capital base is at US$200m, shared 50:50. The JV aims to raise funds of US$400m-600m in the future. 100 SCBX plans to spin off the new digital platform and technology companies to be listed over the next three to five years. 75 For the core banking business post restructuring, management reiterated their capital commitment of at least 15% for its Tier-1 ratio and 16-16.5% (versus 50 todays’ 17.9%) for the CAR ratio. Maintain BUY. SCB’s new strategy is to unlock potential future value by 25 targeting to enhance its customer base from 50m to 200m in the next five years. We reiterate our BUY rating with a revised price target of Bt130 (from SCB SET Bt114), rolling out to 1.0x mid-2022F book. The stock is trading at 11.6x our 2021F earnings. Downside risk depends on weaker-than-expected overall economic activity. Rating CGR 2020 Thai CAC Investment summary SCB Certified FY Dec 31 2018 2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F Net profit (Btm) 40,068 40,436 27,218 32,148 34,057 41,532 Change (%) -7.1 0.9 -32.7 18.1 5.9 21.9 PPOP (Btm) 73,586 71,536 80,437 84,367 83,843 87,554 Analyst Change (%) -6.3 -2.8 12.4 4.9 -0.6 4.4 Rattana Leenutaphong EPS (Bt) 11.80 11.91 8.02 9.47 10.03 12.23 [email protected] Change (%) -7.1 0.9 -32.7 18.1 5.9 21.9 Tel: 662-658-5787 P/E (x) 9.3 9.2 13.7 11.6 10.9 9.0 DPS (Bt) 5.50 6.25 2.30 3.79 4.01 4.89 Yield (%) 5.0 5.7 2.1 3.5 3.7 4.5 BVPS (Bt) 111.92 117.91 121.17 128.12 134.36 140.84 P/BV (x) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 ROAA (%) 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 ROAE (%) 10.8 10.4 6.7 7.6 7.6 8.9 Source: Company and IVG estimates The opinions and information contained herein are based upon sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy, completeness or correctness are not guaranteed. This information is not to be construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein by this report. I V Global Securities Plc (“IVG”) accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. Company Update Thursday, September 23, 2021 I V Global Securities Public Company Limited Results Btm 2Q21 2Q20 % YoY 1Q21 % QoQ 1H21 1H20 % YoY Net interest income 23,475 23,777 (1.3) 23,376 0.4 46,850 49,555 (5.5) Non-interest income Fee income 9,812 7,681 27.7 10,439 -6.0 20,251 16,595 22.0 Others 3,183 4,819 (34.0) 3,938 -19.2 7,121 7,768 (8.3) Total 12,994 12,499 4.0 14,377 -9.6 27,371 24,363 12.3 Non-interest expense 15,376 16,141 (4.7) 15,101 1.8 30,478 32,534 (6.3) PPOP 21,093 20,136 4.8 22,652 -6.9 43,744 41,384 5.7 ECL 10,028 9,734 3.0 10,008 0.2 20,036 19,460 3.0 Net income 8,815 8,360 5.4 10,088 -12.6 18,902 17,611 7.3 EPS (Bt) 2.60 2.46 5.4 2.97 -12.6 5.57 5.19 7.3 Source: Company and IVG estimates Key ratios % 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 Loan growth, YTD (0.9) 1.4 2.7 6.7 1.0 1.8 Loan growth, YoY (1.4) (2.6) (1.0) 6.4 8.7 7.1 NIM* 3.54 3.20 3.12 3.02 3.01 3.04 Fee income, YoY 33.7 6.9 15.9 35.5 17.1 27.7 Non-interest income, YoY 20.4 19.0 (68.6) 5.6 21.2 4.0 Cost to income 43.6 44.5 45.7 44.1 40.0 42.2 Loan-to-deposit 87.4 95.1 85.4 93.2 96.9 96.9 Credit cost (bps) 185.0 182.3 240.2 257.3 176.6 175.4 NPL 3.14 3.05 3.32 3.68 3.79 3.79 LLR/NPL 139.6 152.5 145.7 140.8 139.6 142.3 Tier I 16.1 17.0 17.6 17.1 17.1 16.8 Total CAR 17.2 18.1 18.7 18.2 18.2 17.9 Source: Company and IVG estimates; * adjusted Quarterly performance Btm 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 Net-interest income 25,777 24,800 23,724 23,621 23,376 23,475 Non-interest income Fee income 8,915 6,700 8,570 11,422 10,439 9,812 Others 2,949 1,400 2,191 1,324 3,938 3,183 Total 11,863 8,100 10,761 12,745 14,377 12,994 Non-interest expense 16,393 16,375 15,747 16,050 15,101 15,376 PPOP 21,248 16,525 18,738 20,316 22,652 21,093 Provisions 9,726 9,000 12,955 14,234 10,008 10,028 Net profit 9,251 6,015 4,641 4,965 10,088 8,815 EPS (Bt) 2.72 1.77 1.37 1.46 2.97 2.60 Source: Company and IVG estimates 2 of 3 Company Update Thursday, September 23, 2021 I V Global Securities Public Company Limited I V Global Investment Research – Recommendation Definitions Sector Recommendations Stock Recommendations OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's BUY: Expecting positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant months. primary market index by at least 10% over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage HOLD: Expecting total returns of not more than -10% to +10% over the universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary next 3 months. market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's SELL: Expecting negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant months primary market index by 10% over the next 12 months. Anti-corruption Progress Indicator Definitions Level 5 Extended Extension of the anti-corruption policy to business partners in the supply chain, and disclosure of any current investigations, prosecutions or closed cases Level 4 Certified Audit engagement by audit committee or auditors approved by the office of SEC, and receiving certification or assurance by independent external assurance providers (CAC etc.) Level 3 Established Carrying out preventive measures, risk assessment, communication and training for all employees, including consistent monitoring and review processes.
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