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Currency Weekly Currency Weekly A W e e k l y Comprehensive Report on Currency 19 July 2010 INR Exchange Contract S 2 S1 Close R 1 R2 Recommendation NSE Aug 2010 45.7200 46.0200 47.0002 47.3100 47.7400 Buy at 46.89 TP 47.45/47.70 SL 46.50 MCX-SX Aug 2010 45.7200 46.0200 47.0002 47.3100 47.7400 Buy at 46.89 TP 47.45/47.70 SL 46.50 INDICATORS LAST 1 week ago % Change FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW: LIBOR 1Mth 0.3381 0.3409 -0.82 LIBOR 3Mth 0.5213 0.5268 -1.06 MIBOR 1Mth 0.6000 0.5500 9.09 The Indian rupee moved quite volatile and settled on MIBOR 3Mth 0.8600 0.8200 4.88 46.7725 levels depreciated by 10 paisa from the previous U.S. 5Yr Bond Yield 1.7392 1.8353 -5.24 U.S. 10Yr Bond Yield 2.9772 3.0520 -2.45 week. During the last two days of week, rupee moved India 5Yr Bond Yield 7.3740 7.3970 -0.31 tandem with domestic market. Rupee pressurized during India 10Yr Bond Yield 7.6340 7.6500 -0.21 Reference rate 46.8000 46.7500 0.11 the week on account of narrowed domestic indices, heavy CBLO rate 4.6900 5.4900 -14.57 Call Rate 5.7000 5.6800 0.35 buying of dollar by importers and weak global sentiment. Dollar index continuously falling as euro strengthen against ASIAN/INR LAST 1 week ago % Change greenback. During last week, INR depreciated more then Indian rupee 46.7725 46.6644 0.23 other Asian. Chinese Yuan 6.9040 6.8900 0.20 Hongkong Dollar 6.0170 6.0100 0.12 Moreover, increased in continuing job claims and lower in Indonesian Rupiah 0.5173 0.5158 0.29 Myanmar Ringgit 14.5800 14.5900 -0.07 manufacturing data declared by US and decreased in Philipinnes Peso 1.0099 1.0105 -0.06 growth of china depicts weak global sentiment. Singapore Dollar 33.9779 33.7780 0.59 S Korean Won 0.3887 0.3902 -0.40 Asian equity also remained lower on account of China Taiwan Dollar 1.4567 1.4562 0.03 floated its currency and made stringent rule on Thailand Baht 1.4514 1.4461 0.37 construction and mortgage loan which curb the Asian market growth. This dragged down the Asian equity Pair LAST 1 week ago % Change USDINR 46.80 46.75 0.11 market, and domestic indices followed the same and GBPINR 72.08 68.72 4.89 remained in narrow range. JPYINR 100 53.66 52.81 1.61 EURINR 60.37 59.36 1.70 The Dollar Index- a gauge of the greenback’s movement against major global six currencies decreased by 1.7 Particular (in USD MIO) LAST 1 week ago % Change percent. Foreign Current Asset 252129.00 251383.00 0.30 Special Drawing Rights 4919.00 4864.00 1.13 India’s foreign funds flows are the main drivers of rupee, Gold Reserves 19894.00 19423.00 2.42 further flows in the equity market affect the rupee as well. Total FOREX Reserves 278267.00 276980.00 0.46 So far in July 2010, foreigners have purchased net a net $8.4 billion, compare to last year $17.5 billion dollar. In last two days movement in on-shore and off-shore premium made impact on rupee. The NDF were quoted at 47.26 while on shore forward market quoted 46.96. Mail Us at [email protected] and Visit Us as www.karvyforex.com Currency Weekly A W e e k l y Comprehensive Report on Currency TECHNICAL SNAPSHOT The Indian rupee traded sideways to higher in last week by extending the previous trend. After making a high of 46.9450 it settled at 46.7000 levels. Market is trading above weekly short term and medium term EMA suggests rupee to remain higher. However, immediate resistance is at 47.1500 levels on break above is likely to test 47.7400. The momentum indicator RSI (14) weekly is treading at 0.59 levels and showing a higher potential. The crucial support is at 46.3000 levels if market sustains above the same possible to remain rupee higher in short term OUTLOOK Week ahead, the host of new data releases from the Us Include Consumer price index, Net TIC inflow and Michigan confidence data, housing starts(mom), Existing homes sales and US leading indicators are lower than prior which put pressure economic growth. While last weak, lower advance retail sales, decreased in manufacturing data already stated chances of deflation and recession in economy. Investor need to watch on dollar index as it volatile during last week and dollar shed on account of expectation of flattering economy, which might give some relive for rupee. In July government of INDIA allow 51% percent foreign direct investment (FDI) in retail sales sector and 100 percent in wholesale market on cash carry trade which attracts capital inflow into the market. While RBI extends second LAF (Liquidity adjustment facility) for next 30th JULY, which also increase money supply into market, this step by RBI would be depreciate rupee in near term while meet on 27th July expected increase in interest rate which might made mixed impact on rupee. Overall rupee trade sideways, major movement on rupee relates to dollar if it weakened it will make rupee to appreciate. Technically speaking, we expect to trade higher and recommend buying. CROSS LAST 1 week ago % Change CROSS LAST 1 week ago % Change USDINR 46.77 46.66 0.23 INR SPOT 46.77 46.66 0.23 EUROINR 60.41 58.99 2.40 MCX-SX Futures 46.83 46.80 0.05 GBPINR 71.57 70.30 1.81 NSE Futures 46.85 46.80 0.09 JPY (100) Futures 54.03 52.68 2.56 1 Month NDF 46.96 46.78 0.38 MYR 14.58 14.59 -0.07 1 Month FORWARD 46.97 46.86 0.23 SGD 33.98 33.78 0.60 NIFTY 5393.90 5352.45 0.77 DOLLAR INDEX 82.49 83.95 -1.74 SENSEX 17955.82 17833.54 0.69 Mail Us at [email protected] and Visit Us as www.karvyforex.com Currency Weekly A W e e k l y Comprehensive Report on Currency DOLLAR INDEX Exchange Contract S 2 S1 Close R 1 R2 Recommendation Dollar Index SPOT 81.850 82.320 82.624 82.890 83.430 Sell at 82.786 TP 82.100 SL 83.20 TECHNICAL SNAPSHOT Dollar index fell sharply in last week by extending the previous trend. Overall, it fell as much as 1.7% from previous close. Market has breached the trend line support near 83.68 levels and closing below the same suggesting market to remain lower. Closing below the weekly short term EMA renders sideways to lower movements. However, the support is at 81.80 levels on breach and sustained trade below likely to test 80.60 levels. The momentum indicator RSI (14) weekly is treading at 0.48 levels and showing a lower potential OUTLOOK We expect dollar index to trade lower and recommend selling CROSS LAST 1 week ago % Change NASDAQ 2179.05 2196.45 -0.79 DJIA 10097.90 10198.03 -0.98 S/P 500 INDEX 1064.88 1077.96 -1.21 Mail Us at [email protected] and Visit Us as www.karvyforex.com Currency Weekly A W e e k l y Comprehensive Report on Currency EUR / USD- SPOT Exchange Contract S 2 S1 Close R 1 R2 Recommendation EURO /USD SPOT 1.2550 1.2720 1.2930 1.3180 1.3450 Buy at 1.2850 TP 1.3200 SL 1.2670 FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW The European currency appreciated against US on PARTICULARS THIS WEEK LAST WEEK % CHANGE account of weak US economic condition. During a week MXEM EMU INDEX 82.2400 85.4000 -3.70 euro appreciated nearly 2 percent. Moreover, US EUR1M BGN Curncy 1.2371 1.2391 -0.16 released weak economy data which might fuel investor EUR3M BGN Curncy 1.2376 1.2397 -0.17 to move towards euro. Moreover, during the week euro supported by positive macro data released and Greece passed Treasury bond auction which boost investor sentiment for euro. While, European stock down two week lower on account of lower growth of china and possibility of situation of deflation arise in US made impact on European market. As smoothed auction in Portugal, Spain and Greece eased worries for stress crises in Europe. Most market participant and Investor believe that euro will stay under selling pressure for the long term on concerns that debt problems in some euro zone countries are spreading. TECHNICAL SNAPSHOT Euro witnessed upside movement in last week by extending the previous trend. After making a high of 1.3008 it settled at 1.2930 levels. Market is witnessing a trend line support near 1.2600 levels sustains above possible to remain higher. As OUTLOOK per the Fibonacci principle crucial level is at 1.2647 (23.6% The result of stress test of European bank would be retracement of the range 1.5141-1.1877 levels), which is declared on next week, which made impact on euro likely to trade sideways to higher in short term. The currency. Government and European countries has to momentum indicator RSI (14) weekly is trading at 0.47 take quick step to maintain growth of economy. levels and showing a high potential. Technically, we expect Euro to trade higher and recommend buying.
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