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Indonesia - Indonesian Rupiah, Idr

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Indonesia - Indonesian Rupiah, Idr As of March 16th 2015 INDONESIA - INDONESIAN RUPIAH, IDR Country: Indonesia Currency: Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) Phonetic Spelling: {ru: ‘pi: ah} Country Overview Abbreviation: IDR FOREIGN EXCHANGE Controlled by Bank Indonesia (Bank Sentral Repulik Indonesia), the Indonesian Etymology rupiah has been one of the best-performing emerging market currencies year-to-date The origin of the word rupiah can be traced back to the in relation to the USD. The IDR’s 20% depreciation last year prompted the regulators Hindi word rūpiya, which itself is derived from the Sanskrit to intervene in the currency market, and to implement certain measures so as to word rūpya, meaning, “wrought silver, a coin of silver”. reduce the pressure on the country’s economic benchmarks, such as curbing imports Indonesians also use the colloquial word “perak” (which and tightening monetary policy. And as the rupiah has steadily rebounded, the central means ‘silver’ in Indonesian) when referring to rupiah. bank has been able to rebuild its foreign exchange reserves, creating a period of Currency History relative stability. The rupiah has a long history that stretches back to colonial period. During the period where Indonesia was SOVEREIGN DEBT a Dutch colony, the country used the Netherlands Indies The market’s perception of Indonesia’s sovereign credit risk has been rather volatile Guilden as the national currency up until the Japanese recently, however, the IMF forecasts a further moderate decline in public debt due to invasion in 1942. The Japanese printed their own version currency appreciation, falling interest rates, and planned economic growth. Future of the Guilden, which continued to act as the currency energy subsidy reduction and tax reforms, in combination with stronger economic even after the war, although its supply dwindled due to the destruction of printing plates. growth should all support a further decline in debt. Currently, the nation’s long-term foreign-currency ratings are favorable with Moody’s reporting “Baa3” rating, Fitch a Choosing to ignore the advice of the Allied forces, “BBB-”, and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) a “BB+”. Dutch nationalists on the island of Java introduced the Indonesian Rupiah on October 3, 1946. However, the GROWTH OUTLOOK Japanese guilden continued to be the dominant currency. Forecasters are confident that Indonesia will record favorable real GDP growth, by Then in 1950-1951, reforms were made to reduce the regional standards, all through 2016, thereby continuing to increase its economic amount and array of money in circulation—all of which influence and importance within the world economy. The countries output is expected was converted at a devalued rate to the De Javasche Bank Rupiah (DJB). In 1953, the Dutch controlled De Javasche to expand on average by 5.6% y/y in 2015-16, compared with a 5.0% in 2014. GDP Bank was nationalized and become Bank Indonesia. The increased by 5.0% y/y in the fourth quarter of 2014, though it should be noted it was first Bank Indonesia printed money appeared the same adversely impacted by a weaker export sector performance, much in part to lower year, replacing the DJB. global commodity prices. This is of note as the country is reliant on commodity exports, nearly two-thirds of the country’s shipments abroad are commodities including palm Between 1959 and 1998, inflation ravaged the country oil and coal. due to a variety of factors, ranging from government mismanagement to the Asian financial crisis of 1998, however the IDR has experienced periods of stability, though remains volatile. Indonesia’s Central Bank has announced that the rupiah Disposable income gains are supporting consumer confidence; accordingly, would be redenominated by removing three zeros economic momentum continues to be driven by household spending. A successful starting 2014, with existing rupiah set to be phased out implementation of the government’s reform agenda should translate to increased by the end of 2018. private sector investment while a lower fuel subsidy bill will allow the government to Frequently used coins include: Rp 100, Rp 200, Rp 500, increase infrastructure outlays. Rp 1000 INFLATION Frequently used banknotes include: Rp 1000, Rp 2000, Rp Inflation dropped to 7.0% y/y in January, which is of note as it had peaked at 8.4% 5000, Rp 10 000, Rp 20 000, Rp 50 000, Rp 100 000 in December, however it remains significantly above the 4½% y/y average reordered shortly before the administered price increases. Forecasters anticipate inflation to decelerate in the short term, marking a closing of 4.7% y/y for the end of the year. The government assures that monetary conditions will be maintained to offset the high inflationary pressures as reflected by the recent cuts in fuel subsidies. Additionally, to help cement inflation expectations, Bank Indonesia decided to tighten monetary conditions following an unscheduled policy meeting in mid- November 2014, raising the benchmark interest rate to 7.75%, and forecaster do not anticipate any further hikes. GOVERNMENT The Indonesian government system can be described as “presidential with parliamentary characteristics”. It lives in a framework of a presidential representative democratic republic, where the President of Indonesia is both head of state and head of government, and of a multi-party system. Currently, the country is in election mode and going through a state of power shifts. The country’s former legislature will be dispersed as 10 parties surpassed the vote threshold needed to obtain parliamentary representation. FINANCIAL SECTOR Total GDP in Indonesia expanded 5.01 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 over the same quarter of the previous year. According to the IMF, Indonesia’s banking system is well capitalized, with the Tier 1 Capital ratio at 17.7% in mid-2014. Also, asset quality remains high with the banking sector’s nonperforming loans ratio hovering near 2% at end of 2014, as reported by the central bank.with 22% a year earlier. [email protected] Full disclaimer: This Executive Summary is the property of Dartmouth Capital, LLC d.b.a. SafeDinar.com and is therefore the intellec- tual property of Dartmouth Capital, LLC d.b.a. SafeDinar.com. All rights reserved. This report and publications discussed are intended 877 723 3391 solely for information purposes and are not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or sell or trade in any commodities, securities, or currencies herein named. Information is obtained from sources be- lieved to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions www.safedinar.com are attempted. In no event should the content of this report be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Dartmouth Capital, LLC dba SafeDinar.com or any of its officers, directors, employees, affiliates or other agents that you will © 2015 Safe Dinar profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Please view our terms of use for full disclosure. .
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