An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Table of Contents

Geographic Spread of Resources: ...... 1 An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19 ...... 1 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19 ...... 2 Executive Summary ...... 1 Rationale of this Study ...... 2 Methodology ...... 3 Background ...... 3 Methodology ...... 3 Revenue Development Budget ...... 6 Revenue Development Budget-District Wise ...... 14 Capital Development Budget ...... 17 Capital Development Budget (District Profile) ...... 20 Percentage Share of Departments in Total Development Budget ...... 24 District Allocation Comparison with District Population ...... 29 Recommendations: ...... 33

i Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Executive Summary May and June are the months when government presents budget estimates in the assemblies. The members of the assembly discuss these estimates and give approval. The implementation of the approved budget starts from 1st of July. By February/March during the same fiscal year another exercise for revision of budget estimates takes place. Revised Estimates are mid-year review of expenditure, considering the expenditure for the rest of the year, and new services. Revised Estimates are not voted by the Parliament until by the end of the year. Revised estimates can be prepared under any one of the following circumstances: When the original approved estimate is likely to exceed (or decreased) or if there is an unforeseen natural disaster, drought, war etc. and the state finds it necessary to divert the funds to address the immediate needs of the citizens or when the government feels that a scheme originally not conceived is necessary for the welfare of the citizens and should be initiated mid-year. Art 124 gives the constitutional cover for this mid-year diversion1. In Pakistan, the funds are diverted for other reasons too. This study discovers that there are hundreds of development schemes that appears in budget estimates but are abandoned mid-year and hundreds of new schemes are started without sharing information with the citizens or legislators. The development budget is divided into two parts: Revenue Development Budget and Capital Development Budget. When comparing budget estimates with revised estimates, there is no notable fluctuation in the overall volume of the budget. The revenue development budget increases from 168.5 billion in budget estimates to 169.5 billion in revised estimates. The budget estimates for capital development budget are PKR 89.6 billion in budget estimates which are reduced to PKR 87.2 billion in revised estimates. The overall reduction in the total development budget is 0.5 percent only but there is quite a drastic reshuffling of budget within departments and districts. This study also makes a comparison of total development budget with the population of the districts. There are some districts with proportional share of budget allocation more than their population. District Lahore tops the list with 10 percent of population share in the province but 43 percent of development budget allocation. Next in line are Dera Ghazi Khan with 2.6 percent population and 5 percent allocation and Rawalpindi with 4.9 percent population and 6 percent allocation. For most of the districts, percentage population is more than the development budget allocations. The worst affected districts under this category are Muzaffargarh with 3.9 percent population and 1 percent budget allocation, Okara 2.8 percent population and 1 percent allocation, Multan 4.3 percent population and 2 percent allocation and Gujranwala with 4.6 percent population and 3 percent

1 Supplementary and excess grant 124. If in respect of any financial year it is found— (a) that the amount authorized to be expended for a particular service for the current financial year is insufficient, or that a need has arisen for expenditure upon some new service not included in the Annual Budget Statement for that year; or (b) that any money has been spent on any service during a financial year in excess of the amount granted for that service for that year; the Provincial Government shall have power to authorize expenditure from the Provincial Consolidated Fund, whether the expenditure is charged by the Constitution upon that Fund or not, and shall cause to be laid before the Provincial Assembly a Supplementary Budget Statement or, as the case may be, an Excess Budget Statement, setting out the amount of that expenditure, and the provisions of Articles 120 to 123 shall apply to those statements as they apply to the Annual Budget Statement.

1 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19 allocation. This is not the scope of this study, but it will be interesting to link the beneficiary districts with the political propensity of the district. One such obvious link is Dera Ghazi Khan. Rationale of this Study Every year federal and provincial governments in Pakistan undergo a gigantic months-long budget making exercise. The respective finance departments at provincial level and finance ministry at federal level is the focal point for this non- participative and highly secretive exercise. Once budget is prepared, it is presented in the assembly by government usually by the end of May/start of June each year, undergoes a shallow and insufficient discussion in assemblies and passed post-haste. There are three important observations about the approved budget. The approved demands for grants is a porous document. New development schemes keep on entering throughout the year and the provision for these revisions are traced in Art 124 of the constitution. In the later part of the fiscal year, usually by March 15, finance department completes another exercise with the help of line departments to revise the budget estimates, hence the term revised estimates. Looking through the lens of budget transparency, most the revised estimates are deviation from the initial development plan discussed and approved by peoples’ representatives. The economic managers have the liberty to abandon any scheme mid-year and conceive a new scheme which was not the part of the initial annual development plan. The budget keeps on modifying and changing throughout the year without the knowledge of legislators and citizens. All these changes are then enclosed in a document, called supplementary budget, and government gets it approved from the assembly along with the next year budget. As at this point of time, much of the media and citizens’ focus is on next year’s budget, the supplementary budget gets approved by the assembly without much ado and does not make headlines. Second, the general observation is that there is not much difference between the overall volume of budget estimates and revised estimates. The overall volume of the budget is a function of collected revenue and realized foreign commitments and the government adjusts it according to the available resources. But the budget of individual department changes, sometimes so drastically, that it can render the initial budget making exercise useless and wastage of time and resources. As noted, budget is a porous document, the development schemes keep on permeating and leaving at the will of financial managers. When budget estimates of individual departments and development schemes are compared with revised estimates, there are clear deviations. This study will highlight these deviations and will advocate for the need of budget reforms to arrest this trend. Finally, since the suspension of local government system in the province and due to non- implementation of any resource sharing formula between province and districts, provincial government now manages the development planning for the districts. As development schemes are listed under the departments in the budget document, it is difficult for citizens to segregate the district data to know about the development schemes of their districts. This is partly due to the reason that demand for grants, which is a huge document, is not shared with the citizens in a user-friendly format (for example MS excel) and in its current form it required lot of effort and resources to segregate the district data to develop district development profile. This study will also try to plug this gap.

2 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Methodology Background The general belief about provincial budget is that it is concentrated in few metropolitans and most of the periphery districts are always short of quality development schemes; both in term of numbers and fiscal allocations. Some older study conducted by CPDI shows that the provincial capital in the Punjab gets more than 50% of the development budget. No study to find the continuation of that trend or otherwise has been carried out recently. There is a dearth of literature on quantitative budget analysis in Pakistan that keep track of the geographic spread of resources. Most of the budget analyses are focused at federal level and that too on Budget Estimates. The revised estimates are usually more accurate data for analysis, but this data is not available before the end of the fiscal year; hence is often overlooked by researchers. This study is being conducted to have an in-depth analysis of development Budget of Punjab for the year 2018- 19 and will provide answer to the following question: 1. What is the geographic spread of development budget allocation in districts of the Punjab (Both revenue and Capital)? 2. What is the departmental spread of Budget estimates and how this trend is changed in Revised Estimates? 3. Which Districts are major losers and gainer in Revised Estimates exercise? 4. Which Departments are mostly affected by the change in revised estimates? Activities 1. Compilation of District Wise and Department wise data of Development Budget (Revenue and Capital) 2. Analysis for district allocation of Budget Estimates and Revised Estimates and their comparison 3. Analysis for Departmental allocation of Budget Estimates and Revised Estimates and their comparison 4. Major quantitative Results presented in tabular and graphical form for easy readability 5. Recommendations Methodology This is a pioneer work in Pakistan, and not much referenced is available in regional or national literature to base our methodology. The methodology adopted here will keep on improving with increasing experience to handle such studies and with constructive feedback from researchers, budget advocates and other stakeholders. The following steps are devised to implement the methodology 1. All the development schemes (both Revenue Development and Capital Development) are copied on excel sheets along with the figures of budget estimates and revised estimates for the year 2018-19 using he development budget books Vol. 1 and Vol. 2. Combined, there are well over 8000 such development schemes in two volumes of development budget.2

2 https://finance.punjab.gov.pk/annual_budget

3 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

2. There are quite a few schemes which are vague in term of district allocation and beneficiary district is not mentioned. Such projects are placed under “District Not Assigned” category. 3. Many schemes transcend district boundaries. Most of such cases are found in schemes for construction of roads. For such cases, the total allocation is divided in number of the beneficiary districts for that scheme equally. For example (KS08000687) Dualization of Kasur – Depalpur Carriageway from RM 0.00 to 101.30 Kms, District Kasur & Okara (LE4201) is spread over two districts so the allocated amount is divided equally between the two districts. 4. Similarly, there are schemes which are implemented in different districts under one umbrella scheme. For example, under Construction of Child Protection Units (Phase-I) (LO18004082) eleven child protection units will be built in eleven different districts with the total allocation of PKR 10 million. The districts are: 1) Kasur 2) Gujrat 3) Hafizabad 4) Chakwal 5) Jhelum 6) Vehari 7) Mianwali 8) Bhakkar 9) Pakpattan 10) Rajanpur 11) Layyah. In this case the total allocation of PKR 10 million is equally divided among the eleven districts (i.e. PKR 909091). In this way, this scheme will appear eleven time in our entries as against one scheme in budget books of the government. The accumulative effect in term of allocation will, however, remain same. 5. There are also cases in which a scheme will be implemented in three tehsils. Two tehsils are from one district and one tehsil from the second district. In such cases, two- third weightage is given to the districts with two tehsils included in the project. There was, however, only one such project: Provision of Additional Classrooms in Schools in Tehsils Jhang, T.T. Singh & Gojra (Phase-I). (LO16006449). The total allocation for the project is PKR 542,503,000. District Jhang was credited with the allocation of PKR 180,834,333 as District Jhang has only one Tehsil (Jhang) included in the scheme. District Toba Tek Singh is given the credit for PKR 361,668,667 as two of its tehsils (Toba Tek Singh and Gojra) are included in the schemes. 6. For the above three cases, we understand that final allocations to the beneficiary districts may not be arithmetically equal but in the absence of any other evidence, this is the best possible solution. This, however, lead us to an important advocacy agenda for budget transparency. Advocacy Agenda1: The transparency of the budget documents merits that each allocation should be made in a clear, concise, and transparent manner. The department and geographic location of the project should be clearly mentioned and allocation to the lowest level of expenditure, using proper object codes, should be given in the budget document.

Once this is done, six working sheets of budget allocation are developed. These sheets are as follow: 1. Revenue Development Budget Summary (Department wise) 2. Revenue Development Budget Summary (District wise) 3. Capital Development Budget Summary (Department wise) 4. Capital Development Budget Summary (District wise) 5. Total Development Budget Summary (Department Wise) 6. Total Development Budget Summary and its Comparison with District Population (District Wise)

4 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Why District Development Budget Sheets are needed? The devolution in Pakistan has traversed a bumpy path where clear principles of delegation of financial resources could not be made and implemented. The provinces have always complained about not getting their full share from the federal government. The echoes of decreasing the size of provincial share is already in air at the time of constitution of 10th NFC Award. In the ToRs set out for the said award, provinces have been asked to share the burden of repayment of debt, rationalization of subsidies given by the federal and provincial governments and mechanism for sharing losses between the federal and the provincial governments for running the state-owned enterprises. The provinces on the other hand has failed to formulate and implement Provincial Finance Commission (PFC) and the resources are not transferred to the district as was perceived at the time of 18th amendment to the constitution of Pakistan. The devolution funnel is blocked to the extent that district development portfolio ceased to exist after 2010. The provinces are vehemently demanding their due share from the centre in the name of devolution but have shown reluctance to further devolve these resources and share them with the districts and have instead grabbed and controlled the district development budget. As the provincial budget allocations are made to department and no separate district wise data or district development plan is available, it is important that district profile of the development budget is prepared to know the major beneficiaries’ districts of the development budget in the province. The provincial budget is not published/uploaded in user friendly format; it is an uphill task to segregate development project based on district. Advocacy Agenda 2: The budget documents should be made available to the citizens in user friendly format (excel worksheets) so that the data can be sorted and analyzed by the citizens in different ways.

5 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Revenue Development Budget The Budget Estimates (BE) for revenue development budget for the year 2018-19 are PKR 168.5 billion. The Revised Estimates (RE) are increased by 1.08 billion (0.6%) and are budgeted at PKR 169.5 billion. The number of provincial schemes that got allocations in BE are 4108 which are reduced to 3532 in R.E. which implies that average allocation per scheme increased from PKR 41 million to PKR 48 million. Following table summarizes the BE and RE of provincial departments and calculates the difference between two allocations. Comparison of BE and RE of Departments of Punjab, Revenue Development Budget, 2018-19

Percentage Difference in Difference in No. of No. of Budget Budget Projects Budget Estimates Avg/Project (B.E. Projects Revised Estimates Avg/Project (R.E. Allocation(R.E- Allocation(R.E- S.N. Department (B.E.) 2018-19 2018-19) (R.E) 2018-19 2018-19) B.E.) B.E.) 1 Agriculture 36 6,797,020,000 188,806,111 34 14,055,981,000 413,411,206 7,258,961,000 107 2 Board of Revenue 4 271,156,000 67,789,000 3 478,117,000 159,372,333 206,961,000 76 Communication & 3 Works 1 4,061,000 4,061,000 0 0 - -4,061,000 -100 Energy 4 Department 19 3,157,000,000 166,157,895 12 4,761,393,000 396,782,750 1,604,393,000 51 Environmental 5 Planning 19 1,200,000,000 63,157,895 1 3,359,000 3,359,000 -1,196,641,000 -100 Fisheries 6 7 119,435,000 17,062,143 8 45,164,000 5,645,500 -74,271,000 -62 Food 7 4 112,000,000 28,000,000 4 85,250,000 21,312,500 -26,750,000 -24 Forestry 8 38 2,000,000,000 52,631,579 37 1,307,500,000 35,337,838 -692,500,000 -35 Governance & Information 9 Technology 38 3,699,000,000 97,342,105 58 4,663,416,000 80,403,724 964,416,000 26 Health 10 3 780,000,000 260,000,000 7 636,261,000 90,894,429 -143,739,000 -18 Higher Education 11 64 2,676,939,000 41,827,172 62 3,823,237,000 61,665,113 1,146,298,000 43 Home Department 12 3 325,206,000 108,402,000 3 218,376,000 72,792,000 -106,830,000 -33 Housing & 13 Physical Planning 173 5,000,000,000 28,901,734 200 5,215,070,000 26,075,350 215,070,000 4 Human Rights and Minority Affairs 14 2 50,000,000 25,000,000 1 50,000,000 50,000,000 0 0 Industries 15 23 7,379,378,000 320,842,522 14 1,255,038,000 89,645,571 -6,124,340,000 -83 Information & 16 Culture 11 138,822,000 12,620,182 11 144,287,000 13,117,000 5,465,000 4 Irrigation 17 5 143,460,000 28,692,000 3 69,647,000 23,215,667 -73,813,000 -51 Jails 18 1 34,873,000 34,873,000 0 0 - -34,873,000 -100

6 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Percentage Difference in Difference in No. of No. of Budget Budget Projects Budget Estimates Avg/Project (B.E. Projects Revised Estimates Avg/Project (R.E. Allocation(R.E- Allocation(R.E- S.N. Department (B.E.) 2018-19 2018-19) (R.E) 2018-19 2018-19) B.E.) B.E.) Judiciary 19 1 25,000,000 25,000,000 1 8,650,000 8,650,000 -16,350,000 -65 Labor Human 20 Resources 6 300,000,000 50,000,000 5 345,127,000 69,025,400 45,127,000 15 Law and Parliamentary 21 Affairs 1 99,090,000 99,090,000 1 99,090,000 99,090,000 0 0 Literacy 22 11 1,800,000,000 163,636,364 6 821,075,000 136,845,833 -978,925,000 -54 Live Stock 23 14 1,811,013,000 129,358,071 35 1,089,922,000 31,140,629 -721,091,000 -40 Local Government & Community 24 Development 243 4,630,000,000 19,053,498 484 3,559,292,000 7,353,909 -1,070,708,000 -23 Mines and 25 Minerals 8 178,077,000 22,259,625 4 34,839,000 8,709,750 -143,238,000 -80 Planning & 26 Development 39 15,452,183,000 396,209,821 31 4,012,845,000 129,446,613 -11,439,338,000 -74 Police 27 5 72,014,000 14,402,800 5 157,971,000 31,594,200 85,957,000 119 Population 28 Welfare 8 889,200,000 111,150,000 8 1,204,798,000 150,599,750 315,598,000 35 Primary & Secondary Health 29 Care 138 13,840,885,000 100,296,268 230 18,578,680,270 80,776,871 4,737,795,270 34 Public Prosecution 30 4 3,018,000 754,500 5 5,644,000 1,128,800 2,626,000 87 Regional Planning 31 37 1,722,017,000 46,541,000 37 2,171,144,000 58,679,568 449,127,000 26 Religious Affairs and AUQAF Sector 32 7 50,000,000 7,142,857 7 37,503,000 5,357,571 -12,497,000 -25 S& GAD 33 21 937,552,000 44,645,333 25 8,961,478,000 358,459,120 8,023,926,000 856 School Education 34 964 23,186,051,000 24,051,920 14 29,443,516,000 2,103,108,286 6,257,465,000 27 Social Welfare 35 10 333,641,000 33,364,100 7 67,460,000 9,637,143 -266,181,000 -80 Special Education 36 25 531,695,000 21,267,800 7 31,210,000 4,458,571 -500,485,000 -94 Specialized Health Care & Medical 37 Education 62 11,709,343,000 188,860,371 48 15,876,573,671 330,761,951 4,167,230,671 36 Transport 38 79 34,300,000,000 434,177,215 56 36,407,650,000 650,136,607 2,107,650,000 6 Water Supply & 39 Sanitation 1744 20,500,000,000 11,754,587 1837 7,709,195,000 4,196,622 -12,790,805,000 -62 Wildlife 40 6 76,631,000 12,771,833 9 91,772,000 10,196,889 15,141,000 20

7 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

8 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Budget Estimates Vs Revised Estimates 2018-19 (Revenue Development Budget) 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000

Millions PKR Millions 0

Budget Estimates 2018-19 Revised Estimates 2018-19

Chart 1: A bar chart showing comparison of BE and RE, Punjab Revenue Development Budget, 2018- 19 There is no major difference between total B.E. and R.E., but there is a lot of shuffling and uprooting within departmental allocation. The major beneficiary in term of percentage increase has been S&GAD where B.E. of PKR 937 million are revised to PKR 8.9 billion thus registering an increase of 856 percent. The number of projects in B.E were 21 which are increased to 25 in R.E. There are, however, only 8 schemes in BE that also got allocations in RE. All other schemes are abandoned for the year 2018-19 and instead 17 new schemes are introduced. The total story cannot be captured unless we see the detail of the development schemes in B.E. and R.E. for the S&GAD. A Comparison of BE and RE for S&GAD, Revenue Development Budget, 2018-19 Department Project Title B.E. 2018-19 R.E. 2018-19 Emergency S& GAD LO17010091 Establishment of Emergency Service at 69,500,000 Services Tehsils Rescue Hassanabdal & Jand 1122 Emergency S& GAD LO17010103 Establishment of Rescue 1122 Service 35,000,000 Services at sub Rescue Tehsil headquarter Vehova (Taunsa 1122 Sharif) Emergency S& GAD LO17010104 Establishment of Emergency Service to 500,000 Services Tehsils Rescue Phase II 1122 Emergency S& GAD LO18002230 Establishment of Community 5,000,000 Services Emergency Response Rescue Team in Punjab at UC Level 1122 Emergency S& GAD LO17010107 Establishment of Emergency Service in 114,310,000 Services Tehsils covering under DDP Schemes in Rescue 10 Tehsils/ Towns 1122 Emergency S& GAD LO17010105 Establishment of Emergency Service in 193,775,000 49,979,000 Services 62 Rescue Remaining Tehsils Phase III. 1122

9 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Department Project Title B.E. 2018-19 R.E. 2018-19 Emergency S& GAD LO17010106 Capacity Building of Emergency Services 253,440,000 8,003,000 Services in Rescue Punjab Phase II 1122 Libraries & S& GAD LO18002320 Survey Design Feasibility Consultancy 5,000,000 Archives for preparation of PC-I for Construction of Purpose Built Building for Punjab Archives. Emergency S& GAD LO17010101 Establishment of Rescue 1122 Station 33,500,000 Services at Rescue Mustafa Abad 1122 Emergency S& GAD LO17010100 Establishment of New Rescue 1122 4,500,000 3,377,000 Services Station at Rescue Nazir Garden Opposite Journalist Colony 1122 Wahga, Lahore Emergency S& GAD LO17010097 Strengthening of Emergency Services 14,002,000 10,669,000 Services Academy at Rescue Lahore 1122 Emergency S& GAD LO17010098 Establishment of New Rescue 1122 15,900,000 Services Station at Rescue Maraka, Lahore 1122 Emergency S& GAD LO17010099 Establishment of New Rescue 1122 16,360,000 Services Station at Rescue Bedian Road, Lahore 1122 Emergency S& GAD LO17010094 Establishment of Rescue 1122 Center 76,500,000 Services at Shad Rescue Bagh 1122 Libraries & S& GAD LO18002321 Survey Design Feasibility Consultancy 5,000,000 Archives for preparation of PC-I for Establishment of State of the Art Second Campus of Punjab Public Library in Lahore. Emergency S& GAD LO17010102 Establishment of Emergency Services 33,500,000 Services 1122 in Rescue Khokharan Multan 1122 S& GAD S& GAD LO18900001 Community Development Programme 700,000,000 in Bahawalpur

S& GAD S& GAD LO16005107 Prime ministers Global Sustainable 50,000,000 Development Goals D.G.Khan Division S& GAD S& GAD LO18900002 Community Development Programme 1,300,000,000 in D.G. Khan S& GAD S& GAD LO16000045 Harassment Awareness Volunteer 17,000,000 12,750,000 Programme S& GAD S& GAD LO16005108 Prime ministers Global Sustainable 16,215,000 Development Goals Faisalabad Division S& GAD S& GAD LO18900003 Community Development Programme 1,150,000,000 in Faisalabad S& GAD S& GAD LO16005109 Prime ministers Global Sustainable 6,575,000 Development Goals Gujranwala Division

10 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Department Project Title B.E. 2018-19 R.E. 2018-19 S& GAD S& GAD LO18900004 Community Development Programme 750,000,000 in Gujranwala S& GAD S& GAD LO14005425 Provision of Fire Fighting Arrangements 5,000,000 3,750,000 in Punjab Civil Secretariat, Lahore. S& GAD S& GAD LO16005131 Prime Minister's Global Sustainable 2,373,000 Development Goals Lahore Division S& GAD S& GAD LO18900009 Community Development Programme 850,922,000 in Lahore S& GAD S& GAD LO17010228 Establishment of Punjab Agriculture 701,781,000 Food and Drug Authority (PAFDA) Science Enclave Main Building Premises Lahore S& GAD S& GAD LO16005130 Prime Minister's Global Sustainable 234,000,000 Development Goals Multan Division S& GAD S& GAD LO18900008 Community Development Programme 900,000,000 in Multan S& GAD S& GAD LO16000046 Construction of Public Library for 7,507,000 7,507,000 Basirpur City S& GAD S& GAD LO16005110 Prime ministers Global Sustainable 2,300,000 Development Goals Rawalpindi Division S& GAD S& GAD LO18900005 Community Development Programme 1,100,000,000 in Rawalpindi

S& GAD S& GAD LO18900006 Community Development Programme 300,000,000 in Sahiwal S& GAD S& GAD LO16005112 Prime ministers Global Sustainable 29,019,000 Development Goals Sargodha Division S& GAD S& GAD LO18900007 Community Development Programme 750,000,000 in Sargodha S& GAD S& GAD LO18000018 ESTABLISHMENT OF PUBLIC LIBRARY 10,000,000 IN BURJ ATARI AND SHARAQPUR DISTRICT SHEIKHUPURA. S& GAD S& GAD LO16000044 Establishment of Library Complex 22,258,000 22,258,000 Muridkay, District Sheikhupura 937,552,000 8,961,478,000 Total

Table 2: A comparison of BE and RE for S&GAD. The allocation of S&GAD was increased from PKR 937.55 million in BE to PKR 8.9 billion in RE.

11 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Most of the schemes originally conceived under S&GAD PKR 8.5 billion were allocated to in BE are abandoned or their allocation is substantially S&GAD for community development reduced. Most of the schemes for setting up emergency schemes in 9 districts. The budget was services and new rescue 1122 stations could not get any allocated to S&GAD ignoring full-fledged allocation in RE. Instead, community development Local Government and Community schemes worth PKR 8.5 billion are launched in 9 districts Development Department established in revised estimates. These schemes are not included in for the same purpose. the B.E. for the year 2018-19. More confusing is the fact that this PKR 8.5 billion was allocated to S&GAD for community development schemes when a full-fledged Local Government and Community Development Department is already working in the provinces. These PKR 8.5 billion are allocated in a non-transparent way and no further detail of this allocation is available in budget book. Some of the other departments that suffered heavily in revised estimates are Communications and Work (-100%), Environment Planning (-100%), Industries (-83%), Planning and Development (-74%), Social Welfare (-80%), Special Education (-94%), Water Supply and Sanitation (-62%) and Women Development (-67%). The major beneficiary departments, who registered increased allocation in revised estimates, are Agriculture (107%), Board of Revenue (76%), Police (119%), S&GAD (856%), and Public Prosecution (87%). Total number of projects were reduced from 4108 in Budget Estimates to 3532 in revised estimates. Here the most striking are the number of schemes in School Education in Budget Estimates and Revised Estimates. In budget estimates, the number of schemes is 964 with a total allocation of PKR 23.1 billion. This allocation is increased to PKR 29.4 billion and number of projects are reduced to mere 14 with average size of the scheme around 2.1 billion. Billions of rupees are allocated to Punjab Education Authority and Pakistan Education Foundation by compromising on upgradation of dozens of schools. All this revised allocation is done by single line entry in non-transparent way. No detail of the project is known, and it is not clear that for what purpose precisely the budget will be used. Primary and Secondary health Care allocation is increased from PKR 13.8 billion to PKR 18.5 billion (34%) and number of projects are increased from 138 to 230 (70%) but here the average size of the project is reduced from PKR 100 million to PKR 80 million (-20%). Likewise, Local Government and Community Development Budget Allocation is reduced from PKR 4.6 billion to PKR 3.5 billion (-23%) and number of schemes are increased from 243 to 484 (99%) thus reducing the average size of the scheme from PKR 19 million to PKR 3.5 million (-81.5%) Another important allocation in the budget is for transport. An amount of more than PKR 33 billion (20% of the RDB) and PKR 35 billion is allocated to orange train project in B.E. and R.E. respectively- a project still to be commissioned for the benefit of citizens.

12 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

REVENUE DEVELOPMENT BUDGET B.E. REVENUE DEVELOPMENT BUDGET 2018-19 R.E 2018-19 MAJOR SHARE OF THE PIE MAJOR SHARE OF THE PIE Water Supply & Agriculture Water Supply Agriculture Sanitation 4% & Sanitation 8% 12% 5%

Transport Higher Education Industries 21% 2% 4% Housing & Physical Planning Transport 3% 20%

Planning & Development Specialized Health Care & Medical 9% Primary & Educat Secondary Health Specialized Health 9% Care Care & Medical Primary & Secondary 11% Health Care School Education S& GAD Educat School Education 8% 17% 5% 7% 14%

(The labels for departments with smaller allocation were removed to enhance the readability the chart.) Chart 2: A comparison of Budget Estimates and Revised Estimates for Revenue Development Budget 2018-19. Have an idea of major losers and gainers and new entrants and exit.

13 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Revenue Development Budget-District Wise Study of revenue development budget by district also makes an interesting reading. Comparison of Revised Estimates and Revised Estimates of Districts of the Punjab, Revenue Development Budget, 2018-19

Percentage No. of Difference in Difference in Budget Estimates Avg/Project (B.E. No. of Projects Revised Estimates Avg/Project (R.E. S.N. Department Projects Budget Allocation Budget 2018-19 2018-19) (R.E) 2018-19 2018-19) (B.E.) (R.E-B.E.) Allocation (R.E- B.E.)

1 Attock 51 433,542,000 8,500,824 48 381,211,993 7,941,917 -52,330,007 -12

2 Bahawalnagar 62 659,825,000 10,642,339 65 510,099,086 7,847,678 -149,725,914 -23

3 Bahawalpur 108 2,439,076,833 22,584,045 96 2,515,277,177 26,200,804 76,200,344 3

4 Bhakkar 66 231,398,000 3,506,030 56 284,217,543 5,075,313 52,819,543 23

5 Block Allocation 0 0 - 1 221,814,000 221,814,000 221,814,000 -

6 Chakwal 69 403,553,000 5,848,594 51 459,152,950 9,002,999 55,599,950 14

7 Chiniot 82 393,247,000 4,795,695 42 269,088,000 6,406,857 -124,159,000 -32

8 Dera Ghazi Khan 89 828,024,333 9,303,644 130 2,095,385,950 16,118,353 1,267,361,617 153

9 District not assigned 387 94,528,578,000 244,259,891 326 86,369,250,190 264,936,350 -8,159,327,810 -9

10 Faisalabad 281 6,100,201,750 21,708,903 207 2,780,720,843 13,433,434 -3,319,480,907 -54

11 Gujranwala 217 2,218,650,000 10,224,194 187 2,579,133,774 13,792,159 360,483,774 16

12 Gujrat 62 683,663,000 11,026,823 43 411,068,381 9,559,730 -272,594,619 -40

13 Hafizabad 52 231,464,000 4,451,231 60 337,668,151 5,627,803 106,204,151 46

14 Jhang 73 320,987,500 4,397,089 47 250,624,443 5,332,435 -70,363,057 -22

15 Jhelum 27 321,287,500 11,899,537 28 337,298,093 12,046,360 16,010,593 5

16 Kasur 118 892,213,750 7,561,133 122 1,076,604,367 8,824,626 184,390,617 21

17 Khanewal 112 575,815,500 5,141,210 48 346,182,800 7,212,142 -229,632,700 -40

18 Khushab 62 318,520,000 5,137,419 48 400,659,125 8,347,065 82,139,125 26

19 Lahore 328 44,197,050,000 134,747,104 294 50,010,177,000 170,102,643 5,813,127,000 13

20 Layyah 34 367,234,000 10,801,000 33 393,915,900 11,936,845 26,681,900 7

14 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

21 Lodhran 27 148,525,000 5,500,926 25 166,850,146 6,674,006 18,325,146 12

22 Mandi Bahauddin 65 439,188,000 6,756,738 65 602,433,300 9,268,205 163,245,300 37

23 Mianwali 52 245,731,000 4,725,596 43 517,905,994 12,044,325 272,174,994 111

24 Multan 162 2,177,128,583 13,439,065 152 2,489,680,217 16,379,475 312,551,634 14

25 Muzaffargarh 81 493,348,000 6,090,716 81 458,140,343 5,656,054 -35,207,657 -7

26 Nankana Sahib 56 245,306,000 4,380,464 58 338,692,110 5,839,519 93,386,110 38

27 Narowal 59 248,896,000 4,218,576 72 335,148,800 4,654,844 86,252,800 35

28 Okara 120 458,518,000 3,820,983 94 667,801,000 7,104,266 209,283,000 46

29 Pakpattan 40 258,280,000 6,457,000 32 269,199,000 8,412,469 10,919,000 4

30 Rahim Yar Khan 79 1,101,850,000 13,947,468 59 909,851,695 15,421,215 -191,998,305 -17

31 Rajanpur 41 279,231,000 6,810,512 36 270,408,543 7,511,348 -8,822,457 -3

32 Rawalpindi 99 1,661,750,750 16,785,361 102 2,306,976,626 22,617,418 645,225,876 39

33 Sahiwal 60 535,879,750 8,931,329 48 636,752,500 13,265,677 100,872,750 19

34 Sargodha 150 770,785,000 5,138,567 132 1,457,301,086 11,040,160 686,516,086 89

35 Shiekhupura 216 896,541,000 4,150,653 209 4,234,319,698 20,259,903 3,337,778,698 372

36 Sialkot 197 822,905,000 4,177,183 191 999,410,643 5,232,516 176,505,643 21

37 Toba Tek Singh 121 684,962,000 5,660,843 109 582,213,732 5,341,410 -102,748,268 -15

38 Vehari 143 918915750 6,425,984 54 288044743 5,334,162 -630,871,007 -69

Total 168,532,072,000 169,560,679,941 Table 3: Comparison of Budget estimates and Revised estimates of districts of the Punjab, Revenue Development Budget, 2018-19

15 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

In the above table, the revenue budget has been segregated district wise to give a snapshot of districts’ development profile. When comparing B.E. with R.E., the table shows that major gainers are Dera Ghazi Khan (153%), Mianwali (111%), Sargodha (89%) and Shiekhupura (372%). The major losers districts, where allocation is substantially reduced in RE, are Faisalabad (-54), Vehari (-69%), Gujrat (- 40) and Khanewal (-40%).

Budget Estimates Vs Revised Estimates 2018-19(Revenue Development Budget-District) 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 Millions 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 -

Budget Estimates 2018-19 Revised Estimates 2018-19

Chart 3: A bar chart showing comparison of BE and RE of Districts of the Punjab; Revenue Development Budget, 2018-19 The graph showing the comparison of Budget Estimates and Revised Estimates for the year 2018-19 when the data is segregated for districts. The graph is dominated by two entries: Lahore and “District not assigned”. The schemes for which no district is assigned in budget books have been placed under “District not Assigned”. There are two types of schemes under “District not Assigned”. Some development schemes are to be implemented in multiple districts and instead of mentioning the name of all districts a generic statement is given. For example, Development of Ostrich Farming in Punjab is a scheme of livestock department with B.E. of PKR 40 million. The name of the districts could have been easily mentioned with the schemes but are not mentioned. This give the financial manager an opportunity to implement the schemes in districts of their choice and can also sometimes be used as political inducement. Further, with such budget entries, the citizens have no idea of the implementation of scheme in their district and there cannot be any monitoring from citizens groups for such schemes. This is not a best practice and warrants more transparent entries during budget allocation. There are also some schemes where it is clear that major chunk will be spent in provincial capital, but name of the district is not mentioned. Such practice would inflate the district profile of the provincial capital and can invite criticism of stakeholders for increasing the development budget of the capital. The revised budget also includes a “Block Allocation for TEVTA” of PKR 221.8 million. No further detail of this allocation is available. Advocacy Agenda 3: The name of the district should be clearly mentioned against each development scheme. This will make the budget document and the budget allocation process more transparent.

16 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Capital Development Budget The total capital development budget allocation for the year 2018-19 is PKR 89.6 billion which is reduced to 87.2 billion thus showing a decrease of 2.3billion (2.6%). Again, when comparing BE and RE, there are many shuffles in allocations within departments. The major departments who gained in R.E. exercise are Energy department (175%), Governors secretariat (390%), Local Government and Community Development (796%), Law and Parliamentary affairs (91%) and Primary and Secondary Health Care (135%). The major losers are predictable and include Human Rights and Minority Affairs (100%), Women Development (100%) Transport (100%), Public Prosecution (70%) and Archives and Libraries (50%). Comparison of Budget Estimates and Revised Estimates of Departments of the Punjab, Capital Development Budget, 2018-19

Percentage Difference in Difference in No. of No. of Budget Budget Projects Budget Estimates Avg/Project Projects Revised Estimates Avg/Project (R.E. Allocation(R.E- Allocation(R.E- S.N. Department (B.E.) 2018-19 (B.E. 2018-19) (R.E) 2018-19 2018-19) B.E.) B.E.) 1 Energy Department 3 1,843,000,000 614,333,333 3 5,075,000,000 1,691,666,667 3,232,000,000 175 2 Irrigation 148 19,356,540,000 130,787,432 171 16,800,573,000 98,248,965 -2,555,967,000 -13 3 Roads 1310 29,500,000,000 22,519,084 1476 22,480,414,000 15,230,633 -7,019,586,000 -24 Agriculture 4 9 202,980,000 22,553,333 8 76,643,000 9,580,375 -126,337,000 -62 Archives and Libraries 5 9 87,147,000 9,683,000 7 43,472,000 6,210,286 -43,675,000 -50 6 Board of Revenue 25 225,031,000 9,001,240 18 153,293,000 8,516,278 -71,738,000 -32 Communication & Works 7 4 18,000,000 4,500,000 11 16,473,000 1,497,545 -1,527,000 -8 8 Emergency Services 15 134,213,000 8,947,533 15 94,422,000 6,294,800 -39,791,000 -30 Food 9 5 88,000,000 17,600,000 3 84,015,000 28,005,000 -3,985,000 -5 10 Fisheries 5 130,565,000 26,113,000 5 97,833,000 19,566,600 -32,732,000 -25 11 Governor Secretariat 1 5,000,000 5,000,000 1 24,506,000 24,506,000 19,506,000 390 12 Higher Education 122 2,323,061,000 19,041,484 124 1,753,151,000 14,138,315 -569,910,000 -25 Health 14 125 2,823,321,000 22,586,568 106 1,960,919,000 18,499,236 -862,402,000 -31 15 Home Department 29 155,948,000 5,377,517 7 210,035,000 30,005,000 0 Human Rights and 16 Minority Affairs 1 450,000,000 450,000,000 0 0 - -450,000,000 -100 17 Information & Culture 5 61,178,000 12,235,600 4 43,983,000 10,995,750 -17,195,000 -28 18 Industries 2 20,622,000 10,311,000 2 15,468,000 7,734,000 -5,154,000 -25 19 Jails 22 348,890,000 15,858,636 22 361,348,000 16,424,909 12,458,000 4 Judiciary 20 57 869,331,000 15,251,421 59 981,666,000 16,638,407 112,335,000 13 21 Libraries & Archives 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0

17 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Percentage Difference in Difference in No. of No. of Budget Budget Projects Budget Estimates Avg/Project Projects Revised Estimates Avg/Project (R.E. Allocation(R.E- Allocation(R.E- S.N. Department (B.E.) 2018-19 (B.E. 2018-19) (R.E) 2018-19 2018-19) B.E.) B.E.) Local Government & 22 Community Development 1 5,000,000 5,000,000 2 44,811,000 22,405,500 39,811,000 796 23 Labor Human Resources 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 24 Livestock 10 188,987,000 18,898,700 16 161,588,000 10,099,250 -27,399,000 -14 Law and Parliamentary 25 Affairs 1 100,000,000 100,000,000 1 190,653,000 190,653,000 90,653,000 91 26 Mines and Minerals 6 71,923,000 11,987,167 6 46,969,000 7,828,167 -24,954,000 -35 Management & Professional 27 Development Department 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 Public Prosecution 28 17 76,447,000 4,496,882 5 22,922,000 4,584,400 -53,525,000 -70 29 Planning & Development 13 261,300,000 20,100,000 9 312,112,000 34,679,111 50,812,000 19 30 Police 207 2,274,294,000 10,986,928 192 2,097,322,000 10,923,552 -176,972,000 -8 Provincial Assembly 31 7 1,010,488,000 144,355,429 7 571,354,000 81,622,000 -439,134,000 -43 Primary & Secondary 32 Health Care 8 81,372,000 10,171,500 19 191,400,000 10,073,684 110,028,000 135 School Education 33 19 1,813,949,000 95,471,000 18 1,127,216,000 62,623,111 -686,733,000 -38 S& GAD 34 34 488,741,000 14,374,735 30 573,430,000 19,114,333 84,689,000 17 Specialized Health Care & 35 Medical Education 25 2,875,879,000 115,035,160 22 1,796,761,000 81,670,955 -1,079,118,000 -38 Social Welfare 36 13 216,359,000 16,643,000 11 111,025,000 10,093,182 -105,334,000 -49 37 Special Education 16 468,305,000 29,269,063 11 259,490,000 23,590,000 -208,815,000 -45 38 Tourism 0 0 - 1 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 0 39 Transport 1 200,000,000 200,000,000 0 0 - -200,000,000 -100 Women Development 40 4 10,000,000 2,500,000 0 0 - -10,000,000 -100 41 Wildlife 9 173,369,000 19,263,222 8 110,226,000 13,778,250 -63,143,000 -36 Youth Affairs, Sports, Archaeology & Tourism 42 66 508,688,000 7,707,394 67 411,807,000 6,146,373 -96,881,000 -19 Governance & 43 Information Technology 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 44 Loans (Non-Development) 21 20,166,475,000 960,308,333 19 28,946,284,000 1,523,488,632 8,779,809,000 44 Total 2,375 89,634,403,000 37,740,801 2,486 87,249,584,000 35,096,373 2,384,819,000 -3 Table 4: Comparison of Budget estimates and Revised estimates of Departments of the Punjab, Capital Development Budget, 2018-19

18 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Budget Estimates Vs Revised Estimates 2018-19 (Capital Development Budget-Department) 40,000 30,000 20,000

Millions 10,000 0

Budget Estimates 2018-19 Revised Estimates 2018-19

Chart 4: A bar chart showing comparison of BE and RE of Departments of the Punjab; Capital Development Budget, 2018-19 Before moving further, let us have a quick look on what kind of schemes were introduced and abandoned in R.E within major loser and gainer departments as identified above. As noted earlier, the Budget for Governor’s Secretariat was increased from PKR 5 million to PKR 24 million. There is a single scheme that got the increase of 390% in revised estimates. Following is the detail: Department Scheme B.E. R.E Difference Percentage difference Governor’s Restoration and 5,000,000 24,506,000 19,506,000 390 Secretariat Refurbishment of Historical Main Building, Governor’s House, Lahore Table 5: A comparison of BE and RE of Governor’s secretariat, CDB, 2018-19 The Energy department gained 175% in R.E. This is mainly because of addition of one development scheme in R.E. As in case of most of the capital development schemes, this is a single-line allocation made in a non-transparent way. Even the name of the district is not known at the time of its inclusion in R.E. Its detail is as follow: Department Project B.E. R.E Difference Percentage difference Energy Establishment of 0 4,600,000,000 4,600,000,000 - Department 1200MW re- liquified Gasified Natural Gas (RLNG) based power plant in Punjab Table 6: A comparison of BE and RE of Energy Department, CDB, 2018-19

19 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

One more interesting allocation in the Capital Development Budget is Non-development loans of PKR 20billion which are later revised to PKR 28.9 billion. This is by no means a small Lahore Waste Management Company was allocated allocation in the overall context of capital PKR 1 million under repayment of loans. It was revised development budget. It consists of more to PKR 9.6 billion; an increase of 95990000%. No than 33% of the Revised Capital reason was given for this increase. Development Budget (22% of B.E.). This is the largest single entry in R.E. and second largest in B.E. only after Roads. It is not clear that under which rule capital development budget is diverted towards non-development loans to different department. This is, however, the practice for the last many years. Under this allocation loans are provided to different companies like waste management companies, Punjab Housing and Town Planning Agency, Water and Sanitation Agency of Different Districts, Faisalabad Industrial Estate, Punjab Model Bazars Management Company etc. Although the objections can be raised for most of these allocations, but couple of entries are made in very non-transparent way; e.g. Department Project B.E. R. E Difference Percentage difference Loans (Non- Loans to 1,369,560,000 1,400,000,000 30,440,000 2.2 Development) Public Sector Companies Loans (Non- Block 12,154,798,000 14,216,000,000 2,061,202,000 17 Development) Allocation for Waste Management Companies

Table 7: Non-Development loans given from CDB, 2018-19 Public sector companies are allocated an amount of PKR 1.4 billion in revised estimates. It is not clear that which public sector companies will benefit from this allocation. The need for block allocations to the waste management companies is not clear when number of waste management companies were allocated millions of rupees separately. Lahore Waste Management Company tops the list with PKR 9.6 billion. Rawalpindi Waste Management Company gets an allocation of PKR 2.1 billion, Gujranwala Waste Management Company gets PKR 675million and list goes on. How and when these companies will repay the loan is not clear from the budget document. Capital Development Budget (District Profile) Capital development budget with respect to district allocation is another angle of analysis. As already mentioned, district allocation is not the way government budget is arranged by. Development schemes in budget document are arranged under the departments and they are sorted out by districts to generate district profile for capital development budget. The summary table for districts capital development budget is produced below:

20 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Comparison of Budget Estimates and Revised Estimates of Districts of the Punjab, Capital Development Budget, 2018-19

1 Attock 47 602,923,000 12,828,149 42 392,495,500 9,345,131 -210,427,500 -35 8 2 Bahawalnagar 45 1,338,461,167 29,743,581 982,230,167 122,778,771 -356,231,000 -27 101 3 Bahawalpur 107 1,718,372,667 16,059,558 1,341,647,417 13,283,638 -376,725,250 -22 30 4 Bhakkar 35 512,736,091 14,649,603 301,067,000 10,035,567 -211,669,091 -41 1 5 Block Allocation 2 12,164,798,000 6,082,399,000 18,713,000 18,713,000 -12,146,085,000 -100 48 6 Chakwal 41 788,927,091 19,242,124 1,009,262,000 21,026,292 220,334,909 28 67 7 Chiniot 15 268,505,000 17,900,333 141,935,000 2,118,433 -126,570,000 -47 87 8 Dera Ghazi Khan 79 2,855,706,000 36,148,177 4,730,189,000 54,369,989 1,874,483,000 66 Districts Not 107 9 Assigned 109 28,276,643,000 259,418,743 19,590,847,000 183,092,028 -8,685,796,000 -31 160 10 Faisalabad 107 1,152,564,000 10,771,626 8,027,768,000 50,173,550 6,875,204,000 597 75 11 Gujranwala 66 1,294,053,833 19,606,876 2,265,184,333 30,202,458 971,130,500 75 66 12 Gujrat 65 1,831,045,091 28,169,924 1,982,553,000 30,038,682 151,507,909 8 16 13 Hafizabad 14 227,350,591 16,239,328 214,473,500 13,404,594 -12,877,091 -6 61 14 Jhang 45 2,658,198,333 59,071,074 3,556,038,000 58,295,705 897,839,667 34 46 15 Jhelum 43 632,312,091 14,704,932 459,126,000 9,981,000 -173,186,091 -27 66 16 Kasur 64 980,704,591 15,323,509 1,047,415,500 15,869,932 66,710,909 7 67 17 Khanewal 71 623,161,500 8,776,923 1,454,617,000 21,710,701 831,455,500 133 37 18 Khushab 28 450,347,667 16,083,845 346,745,667 9,371,505 -103,602,000 -23 152 19 Lahore 189 6,961,447,833 36,833,057 15,050,224,750 99,014,637 8,088,776,917 116 31 20 Layyah 38 526,120,091 13,845,266 365,023,000 11,774,935 -161,097,091 -31

21 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Percentage Difference in No. of No. of Difference in Budget Projects Budget Estimates Avg/Project (B.E. Projects Revised Estimates 2018- Avg/Project (R.E. Budget Allocation Allocation S.N. Districts (B.E.) 2018-19 2018-19) (R.E) 19 2018-19) (R.E-B.E.) (R.E-B.E.) 19 21 Lodhran 20 452,901,000 22,645,050 842,930,000 44,364,737 390,029,000 86 34 22 Mandi Bahauddin 32 713,752,000 22,304,750 983,666,000 28,931,353 269,914,000 38 44 23 Mianwali 44 962,223,091 21,868,707 708,106,500 16,093,330 -254,116,591 -26 85 24 Multan 93 1,246,385,500 13,401,995 1,126,229,417 13,249,758 -120,156,083 -10 95 25 Muzaffargarh 95 988,812,000 10,408,547 889,889,000 9,367,253 -98,923,000 -10 34 26 Nankana Sahib 30 374,205,000 12,473,500 303,297,000 8,920,500 -70,908,000 -19 76 27 Narowal 71 683,611,500 9,628,331 641,727,667 8,443,785 -41,883,833 -6 68 28 Okara 52 710,532,667 13,664,090 837,400,000 12,314,706 126,867,333 18 20 29 Pakpattan 13 425,838,758 32,756,828 373,526,000 18,676,300 -52,312,758 -12 126 30 Rahim Yar Khan 126 1,518,645,000 12,052,738 1,417,728,000 11,251,810 -100,917,000 -7 41 31 Rajanpur 43 641,215,091 14,911,979 782,336,000 19,081,366 141,120,909 22 137 32 Rawalpindi 130 5,315,822,000 40,890,938 6,404,868,750 46,750,867 1,089,046,750 20 56 33 Sahiwal 58 1,036,636,333 17,873,040 1,338,355,667 23,899,208 301,719,333 29 106 34 Sargodha 102 2,063,954,000 20,234,843 1,680,342,667 15,852,289 -383,611,333 -19 92 35 Sheikhupura 86 1,643,789,833 19,113,835 2,071,531,333 22,516,645 427,741,500 26 62 36 Sialkot 61 3,315,568,333 54,353,579 1,967,430,667 31,732,753 -1,348,137,667 -41 37 37 Toba Tek Singh 40 728,091,667 18,202,292 549,144,000 14,841,730 -178,947,667 -25 65 38 Vehari 74 948,041,591 12,811,373 1,053,520,500 16,208,008 105,478,909 11

Total 89,634,403,000 87249584000 Table 8: Comparison of Budget estimates and Revised estimates of Districts of the Punjab, Capital Development Budget, 2018-19

22 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

As noted earlier, the total outlay of capital development budget does not change much. There was a decrease of PKR 2.3 billion (2.6%) only in revised estimates but visible differences were noted in district allocations. As is predictable, Lahore is one of the gainers. The budget allocation, here, increased from 6.9 billion to 15 billion (116%). The other gainer districts are Faisalabad (597%), Dera Ghazi Khan (66%), Gujranwala (75%), Khanewal (133%) and Lodhran (86%).

Budget Estimates Vs Revised Estimates 2018-19 (Capital Development Budget-Districts) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000

Millions 10,000 5,000 -

Budget Estimates 2018-19 Revised Estimates 2018-19

Chart 5: A bar chart showing comparison of BE and RE of districts of the Punjab; Capital Development Budget, 2018-19

23 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

BUDGET ESTIMATES 2018-19, DISTRICT REVISED ESTIMATES 2018-19, CAPITAL SHARE Sialkot DEVELOPMENT BUDGET-DISTRICT 2% Sheikhupura Bahawalpur Sialkot Bahawalpur Sheikhupura 2% 2% 4% 2% Sargodha 2% Block Allocation Dera Ghazi Khan 2% 14% Sargodha Rawalpindi 5% 2% 6% Sahiwal 2% Dera Ghazi Khan Districts Not 3% Rawalpindi Assigned 7% 22% Rahim Yar Khan 2% Lahore 8% Lahore Faisalabad 17% 9% Khanewal Jhang Gujrat Jhang Districts Not Gujranwala 2% 4% 2% 3% Gujrat Assigned 3% 2% 32%

(The labels for districts with smaller allocation were removed to enhance the readability.) Chart 6: A comparison of Budget Estimates and Revised Estimates for Capital Development Budget 2018-19 for districts. Have an idea of major losers and gainers and new entrants and exit. Percentage Share of Departments in Total Development Budget In this section, RDB and CDB are added to see the overall impact of development budget. The departments with highest allocations are transport (16%), school education (13%), roads (12% in RE), primary and secondary health care (8%) and specialized Health Care and Medical Education (8%).

24 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Comparison of Budget Estimates and Revised Estimates of Departments, Total Development Budget, 2018-19

% Share of % Share of Dept in TDB- Dept in TDB- Departments RDB-BE CDB-BE TDB-BE BE RDB-RE CDB-RE TDB-RE RE Agriculture 6,797,020,000 202,980,000 7,000,000,000 3 14,055,981,000 76,643,000 14,132,624,000 6 Archives and Libraries 87,147,000 87,147,000 0 43,472,000 43,472,000 0 Board of Revenue 271,156,000 225,031,000 496,187,000 0 478,117,000 153,293,000 631,410,000 0 Communication & Works 4,061,000 18,000,000 22,061,000 0 - 16,473,000 16,473,000 0 Emergency Services 0 134,213,000 134,213,000 0 94,422,000 94,422,000 0 Energy Department 3,157,000,000 1,843,000,000 5,000,000,000 2 4,761,393,000 5,075,000,000 9,836,393,000 4 Environmental Planning 1,200,000,000 0 1,200,000,000 1 3,359,000 3,359,000 0 Fisheries 119,435,000 130,565,000 250,000,000 0 45,164,000 97,833,000 142,997,000 0 Food 112,000,000 88,000,000 200,000,000 0 85,250,000 84,015,000 169,265,000 0 Forestry 2,000,000,000 0 2,000,000,000 1 1,307,500,000 1,307,500,000 1 Governance & Information Technology 3,699,000,000 0 3,699,000,000 2 4,663,416,000 4,663,416,000 2 Governor Secretariat 0 5,000,000 5,000,000 0 24,506,000 24,506,000 0 Health 780,000,000 2,823,321,000 3,603,321,000 2 636,261,000 1,960,919,000 2,597,180,000 1 Higher Education 2,676,939,000 2,323,061,000 5,000,000,000 2 3,823,237,000 1,753,151,000 5,576,388,000 2 Home Department 325,206,000 155,948,000 481,154,000 0 218,376,000 210,035,000 428,411,000 0 Housing & Physical Planning 5,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 2 5,215,070,000 5,215,070,000 2 Human Rights and Minority Affairs 50,000,000 450,000,000 500,000,000 0 50,000,000 - 50,000,000 0 Industries 7,379,378,000 20,622,000 7,400,000,000 3 1,255,038,000 15,468,000 1,270,506,000 1 Information & Culture 138,822,000 61,178,000 200,000,000 0 144,287,000 43,983,000 188,270,000 0 Irrigation 143,460,000 19,356,540,000 19,500,000,000 8 69,647,000 16,800,573,000 16,870,220,000 7 Jails 34,873,000 348,890,000 383,763,000 0 - 361,348,000 361,348,000 0 981666000 Judiciary 25,000,000 869,331,000 894,331,000 0 8,650,000 990,316,000 0

25 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

% Share of % Share of Dept in TDB- Dept in TDB- Departments RDB-BE CDB-BE TDB-BE BE RDB-RE CDB-RE TDB-RE RE Labor Human Resources 300,000,000 0 300,000,000 0 345,127,000 - 345,127,000 0 Law and Parliamentary Affairs 99,090,000 100,000,000 199,090,000 0 99,090,000 190,653,000 289,743,000 0 Literacy 1,800,000,000 1,800,000,000 1 821,075,000 821,075,000 0 Live Stock 1,811,013,000 188,987,000 2,000,000,000 1 1,089,922,000 161,588,000 1,251,510,000 1 Local 44811000 Government & Community Development 4,630,000,000 5,000,000 4,635,000,000 2 3,559,292,000 3,604,103,000 2 Mines and 46969000 Minerals 178,077,000 71,923,000 250,000,000 0 34,839,000 81,808,000 0 Planning & Development 15,452,183,000 261,300,000 15,713,483,000 7 4,012,845,000 312,112,000 4,324,957,000 2 Police 72,014,000 2,274,294,000 2,346,308,000 1 157,971,000 2,097,322,000 2,255,293,000 1 Population Welfare 889,200,000 889,200,000 0 1,204,798,000 1,204,798,000 1 Primary & Secondary Health Care 13,840,885,000 81,372,000 13,922,257,000 6 18,578,680,270 191,400,000 18,770,080,270 8 Provincial Assembly 1,010,488,000 1,010,488,000 0 571,354,000 571,354,000 0 Public Prosecution 3,018,000 76,447,000 79,465,000 0 5,644,000 22,922,000 28,566,000 0 Regional Planning 1,722,017,000 1,722,017,000 1 2,171,144,000 2,171,144,000 1 Religious Affairs and AUQAF Sector 50,000,000 50,000,000 0 37,503,000 37,503,000 0 Roads 29,500,000,000 29,500,000,000 12 22480414000 22,480,414,000 10 S& GAD 937,552,000 488,741,000 1,426,293,000 1 8,961,478,000 573,430,000 9,534,908,000 4 School Education 23,186,051,000 1,813,949,000 25,000,000,000 11 29,443,516,000 1,127,216,000 30,570,732,000 13 Social Welfare 333,641,000 216,359,000 550,000,000 0 67,460,000 111,025,000 178,485,000 0 Special Education 531,695,000 468,305,000 1,000,000,000 0 31,210,000 259,490,000 290,700,000 0 Specialized Health Care & Medical Education 11,709,343,000 2,875,879,000 14,585,222,000 6 15,876,573,671 1,796,761,000 17,673,334,671 8 Tourism - - - 1,000,000 1,000,000 0

26 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

% Share of % Share of Dept in TDB- Dept in TDB- Departments RDB-BE CDB-BE TDB-BE BE RDB-RE CDB-RE TDB-RE RE Transport 34,300,000,000 200,000,000 34,500,000,000 14 36,407,650,000 - 36,407,650,000 16 Water Supply & Sanitation 20,500,000,000 20,500,000,000 9 7,709,195,000 7,709,195,000 3 Wildlife 76,631,000 173,369,000 250,000,000 0 91,772,000 110,226,000 201,998,000 0 Women Development 105,000,000 10,000,000 115,000,000 0 35,059,000 - 35,059,000 0 Youth Affairs, 411807000 Sports, Archaeology & Tourism 2,091,312,000 508,688,000 2,600,000,000 1 1,448,090,000 1,859,897,000 1 Zakat & Ushr - - - 550,000,000 - 168,532,072,000 69,467,928,000 238,000,000,000 169,560,679,941 58,303,300,000 227,313,979,941 Table 9: Comparison of Budget estimates and Revised estimates of departments of the Punjab, Total Development Budget, 2018-19

27 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Percentage Share of the Departments in Total Development Budget (B.E. Vs R.E.) 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 -

% Share of Dept in TDB-BE % Share of Dept in TDB-RE

Chart 7: A bar chart showing comparison of BE and RE for Total Development Budget of Punjab, 2018- 19 Agriculture, Energy and S&GAD gained due to heavy allocations in revised estimates in Revenue Development Budget. Energy department’s gains are due to 175% increase in CDB in revised estimates. S&GAD got unprecedented funding under community development program in revised estimates of revenue development funding (857% increased). We have discussed this in detail in the relevant sections.

28 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

District Allocation Comparison with District Population This section will compare percentage share of total development budget allocations with the percentage share of the district population. Comparison of Percentage Share of Budget Allocation with the Percentage Share of District Population, Total Development Budget, 2018-19

% Shar e in % share in % Share in TDB- Districts Population3 Population RDB-BE CDB-BE TDB-BE TDB-BE RDB-RE RDB-RE TDB-RE RE

Attock 1,883,556 1.7 433,542,000 602,923,000 1,036,465,000 1 381,211,993 392,495,500 773,707,493 1 Bahawalnag ar 2,981,919 2.7 659,825,000 1,338,461,167 1,998,286,167 2 510,099,086 982,230,167 1,492,329,253 1

Bahawalpur 3,668,106 3.3 2,439,076,833 1,718,372,667 4,157,449,500 3 2,515,277,177 1,341,647,417 3,856,924,594 3

Bhakkar 1,650,518 1.5 231,398,000 512,736,091 744,134,091 1 284,217,543 301,067,000 585,284,543 0

Chakwal 1,495,982 1.4 403,553,000 788,927,091 1,192,480,091 1 459,152,950 1,009,262,000 1,468,414,950 1

Chiniot 1,369,740 1.2 393,247,000 268,505,000 661,752,000 1 269,088,000 141,935,000 411,023,000 0

Dera Ghazi Khan 2,872,202 2.6 828,024,333 2,855,706,000 3,683,730,333 3 2,095,385,950 4,730,189,000 6,825,574,950 5 10,808,488,84 Faisalabad 7,874,790 7.2 6,100,201,750 1,152,564,000 7,252,765,750 6 2,780,720,843 8,027,768,000 3 7

Gujranwala 5,014,196 4.6 2,218,650,000 1,294,053,833 3,512,703,833 3 2,579,133,774 2,265,184,333 4,844,318,107 3

Gujrat 2,756,110 2.5 683,663,000 1,831,045,091 2,514,708,091 2 411,068,381 1,982,553,000 2,393,621,381 2

Hafizabad 1,156,957 1.1 231,464,000 227,350,591 458,814,591 0 337,668,151 214,473,500 552,141,651 0

Jhang 2,744,056 2.5 320,987,500 2,658,198,333 2,979,185,833 2 250,624,443 3,556,038,000 3,806,662,443 3

Jhelum 1,222,650 1.1 321,287,500 632,312,091 953,599,591 1 337,298,093 459,126,000 796,424,093 1

3 Source: Block Wise Provisional Summary Results of 6th Population & Housing Census-2017 [As on January 03, 2018], Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan; website http://www.pbs.gov.pk/content/block-wise-provisional-summary-results-6th-population-housing-census-2017-january-03-2018 last accessed on May 29, 2020

29 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

% Shar e in % share in % Share in TDB- Districts Population3 Population RDB-BE CDB-BE TDB-BE TDB-BE RDB-RE RDB-RE TDB-RE RE

Kasur 3,454,996 3.1 892,213,750 980,704,591 1,872,918,341 2 1,076,604,367 1,047,415,500 2,124,019,867 1

Khanewal 2,921,986 2.7 575,815,500 623,161,500 1,198,977,000 1 346,182,800 1,454,617,000 1,800,799,800 1

Khushab 1,281,299 1.2 318,520,000 450,347,667 768,867,667 1 400,659,125 346,745,667 747,404,792 0

44,197,050,00 65,060,401,75 Lahore 11,126,285 10.1 0 6,961,447,833 51,158,497,833 42 50,010,177,000 15,050,224,750 0 43

Layyah 1,824,230 1.7 367,234,000 526,120,091 893,354,091 1 393,915,900 365,023,000 758,938,900 1

Lodhran 1,700,620 1.5 148,525,000 452,901,000 601,426,000 0 166,850,146 842,930,000 1,009,780,146 1

Mandi Bahuddin 1,593,292 1.4 439,188,000 713,752,000 1,152,940,000 1 602,433,300 983,666,000 1,586,099,300 1

Mianwali 1,546,094 1.4 245,731,000 962,223,091 1,207,954,091 1 517,905,994 708,106,500 1,226,012,494 1

Multan 4,745,109 4.3 2,177,128,583 1,246,385,500 3,423,514,083 3 2,489,680,217 1,126,229,417 3,615,909,634 2 Muzaffargar h 4,325,483 3.9 493,348,000 988,812,000 1,482,160,000 1 458,140,343 889,889,000 1,348,029,343 1

Nankana Sahib 1,356,374 1.2 245,306,000 374,205,000 619,511,000 1 338,692,110 303,297,000 641,989,110 0

Narowal 1,709,756 1.6 248,896,000 683,611,500 932,507,500 1 335,148,800 641,727,667 976,876,467 1

Okara 3,039,139 2.8 458,518,000 710,532,667 1,169,050,667 1 667,801,000 837,400,000 1,505,201,000 1

Pakpattan 1,823,687 1.7 258,280,000 425,838,758 684,118,758 1 269,199,000 373,526,000 642,725,000 0 Rahim Yar Khan 4,814,006 4.4 1,101,850,000 1,518,645,000 2,620,495,000 2 909,851,695 1,417,728,000 2,327,579,695 2

Rajanpur 1,995,958 1.8 279,231,000 641,215,091 920,446,091 1 270,408,543 782,336,000 1,052,744,543 1

Rawalpindi 5,405,633 4.9 1,661,750,750 5,315,822,000 6,977,572,750 6 2,306,976,626 6,404,868,750 8,711,845,376 6

Sahiwal 2,517,560 2.3 535,879,750 1,036,636,333 1,572,516,083 1 636,752,500 1,338,355,667 1,975,108,167 1

Sargodha 3,703,588 3.4 770,785,000 2,063,954,000 2,834,739,000 2 1,457,301,086 1,680,342,667 3,137,643,753 2

Shiekhupura 3,460,426 3.1 896,541,000 1,643,789,833 2,540,330,833 2 4,234,319,698 2,071,531,333 6,305,851,031 4

30 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

% Shar e in % share in % Share in TDB- Districts Population3 Population RDB-BE CDB-BE TDB-BE TDB-BE RDB-RE RDB-RE TDB-RE RE

Sialkot 3,893,672 3.5 822,905,000 3,315,568,333 4,138,473,333 3 999,410,643 1,967,430,667 2,966,841,310 2

Toba Tek Singh 2,190,015 2.0 684,962,000 728,091,667 1,413,053,667 1 582,213,732 549,144,000 1,131,357,732 1

Vehari 2,897,446 2.6 918,915,750 948,041,591 1,866,957,341 2 288,044,743 1,053,520,500 1,341,565,243 1

74,003,494,00 49,192,962,00 123,196,456,00 150,609,639,7 Total 110,017,436 0 0 0 82,969,615,751 67,640,024,000 51 Table 10: A comparison of percentage share of budget allocations with population share of the districts, Total Development Budget, 2018- 19

31 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Proportional Share of Districts in Development Budget 2018-19 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5

Kasur

Jhang

Okara

Gujrat

Vehari

Attock

Sialkot

Lahore

Layyah

Jhelum

Chiniot

Multan

Sahiwal

Bhakkar

Lodhran

Chakwal

Narowal

Khushab

Rajanpur

KhanewL

Mianwali

Sargodha

Hafizabad

Pakpattan

Faisalabad

Rawalpindi

Gujranwala

Bahawalpur

Shiekhupura

Muzaffarghar

Bahawalnagar

Nankana Sahib Nankana

Toba Tek Singh Tek Toba

Rahimyar Khan Rahimyar

Dera Ghazi Khan Ghazi Dera Mandi Bahuddin Mandi

% Population % Sahre in TDB-BE % Sahre in TDB-RE

Chart 8: Proportional share of districts in BE and RE of TDB when compared with the population of the district. The above table and graph are generated without taking into account the budgetary allocations for ‘Block Allocation’ and ‘District Not Assigned’. Each district in this graph is represented with three columns. The first column (blue) is the percentage share of the district in overall population of the province. The second column (orange) represent the percentage share of the district in B.E. whereas the third column (grey) represent the percentage share of the district in R.E. Here we can clearly see the extent of control that Lahore has on development budget of the province. Still important is the fact that the above table and graph represent only 47.7% and 58.6% of the B.E. and R.E. respectively because ‘Block Allocations’ and ‘District not Assigned’ are not included. That means more than 52% of the TDB-BE and 41% of the TDB-RE is allocated in nontransparent way. Given the experience of the yesteryears, we know that most of this budget will finally stays in Lahore at the cost of some very underdeveloped districts in the province. The only solution to overcome this problem is to formulate a comprehensive and workable Provincial Finance Commission formula and implement it in letter and spirit. In the absence of any such formula, the smaller districts will continue to suffer.

32 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

Recommendations: This is one of the series of studies to generate evidence that some best practices are not being followed while making budget in Pakistan. This study recommends that: The Art 84/124 of the constitution should be revisited. The development schemes which are included in the budget estimates are a result of months-long exercise and deliberation between line departments and finance department. It is not understandable, that why these schemes are either totally abandoned or their budget drastically changed during the year without assigning any reason. It is true that Art 1244 of the constitution of Pakistan allows for supplementary and excess grants in case the amount authorized to be expended is insufficient or that a need has risen for expenditure upon some new services not included in the annual budget statement for that year. We see that this article is used throughout the budget document. Art 124 provide liberty to the government to disrespect the initial estimates and revise the budget in whichever way they like without assigning any reason. The citizens and citizens’ groups are in no position to monitor the budget when they are kept in dark about the release of funds to approved schemes and initiation of new schemes in mid-year. The only thing the government needs to do is to take this expenditure to the assembly after these funds have been spent and get it approved from the assembly without generating any debate. In parliamentary democracy, where parliamentarians must toe the party line in the parliament, the government is always in majority and any amendment can be approved without much hassle. This is time that Art 84/124 should be revisited, a debate is generated on it and suitable amendment should be made as in present form Art 84/124 is against the democratic principles of transparency and accountability. It should also be made mandatory for the governments to share and mid-year diversion in approved budget and schemes with the citizens and media through proactive disclosure. There should be a solid reason against each such diversion and without this reason revision in budget should not be allowed. Important Terms Capital Expenditure Expenditure incurred for the purpose of acquiring, constructing or enhancing physical assets Budget Estimates Estimated figures for the financial year under review. These are only the estimates and are revised in later part of the year. Revised Estimates Figures for the ongoing fiscal year, which are prepared by March each year but shared wit the public only in May/June at the time of presentation of annual budget in the assembly. Current Expenditure All recurring and administrative types of expenditure which are non-productive are categorized under current expenditure Development Expenditure Expenditure on financial and non-financial assets are categorized under development expenditure.

4 Art 84 in case of federal budget

33 Geographic Spread of Resources: An Analysis of Development Budget of the Punjab, 2018-19

List of Abbreviations ADP Annual Development Plan B.E. Budget Estimates CDB Capital Development Budget NFC National Finance Commission PFC Provincial Finance Commission RDB Revenue Development Budget R.E. Revised Estimates Total Development Budget TDB (RDB+CDB)