Moody's Investors Service Report of Vanderbilt University
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U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE CREDIT OPINION Vanderbilt University, TN 15 June 2021 Update to credit analysis Summary Vanderbilt University's (Aa1 stable) superior credit strength reflects its ongoing financial asset growth enhancing already strong credit fundamentals, and contributing to excellent strategic positioning. Vanderbilt's total cash and investments of $7.7 billion including over $2 billion Contacts of unrestricted monthly liquidity provide it with significant flexibility. These financial reserves Dennis M. Gephardt +1.212.553.7209 partially mitigate some ongoing health care performance and business risks associated with VP-Sr Credit Officer [email protected] the still relatively new post reorganization relationship with Vanderbilt University Medical Center (A3 stable). The university's excellent student market profile, sponsored research Susan I Fitzgerald +1.212.553.6832 Associate Managing Director prowess, manageable capital needs and prospects for ongoing donor support also support [email protected] credit quality. Competition with reputational peers who generally have even greater total Mary Kay Cooney +1.212.553.7815 wealth and stronger fundraising tempers credit strength. VP-Senior Analyst [email protected] Exhibit 1 Strong operating performance, investment returns and monetizations fueled 53% gain in total CLIENT SERVICES wealth between 2016 and 2020 Total cash & investments ($ billion) Operating cash flow margin (%) Americas 1-212-553-1653 $9 20 $8 18 Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 $7 16 14 $6 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 12 $5 10 % billion $4 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 8 $3 6 $2 4 $1 2 $0 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Moody's Investors Service MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE Credit strengths » Substantial total wealth with fiscal 2020 total cash and investments of $7.7 billion » Excellent student demand for comprehensive university across undergraduate, graduate and professional programs » Strong donor support aids competitive strength with total gift revenue of $109 million in fiscal 2020 » Highly manageable financial leverage with multiple sources of funding for capital projects indicating prospects for ongoing debt affordability » Capable treasury management and strong self liquidity supporting commercial paper program Credit challenges » Significant reputational and indirect financial exposure to more volatile healthcare enterprise, with transfers that comprised 20% of operating revenue in fiscal 2020 » Stiff competition from reputational peers including those with much higher wealth per student and greater philanthropic support » Ongoing expense pressures and strategic aim of competing at the highest level of comprehensive universities could lead to some margin compression and increased leverage over time Rating outlook The stable outlook assumes the maintenance of the university's core credit strengths including student market, donor support and a substantial cushion of total cash and investments relative to debt and expenses. The stable outlook is predicated on Moody's expectations of at least adequate operating performance at VUMC. Factors that could lead to an upgrade » Marked increase in total wealth including flexible reserves relative to expenses » Ongoing momentum in student market and donor support profile including gains in gifts per student » Maturation of VUMC and improvement in general credit quality of VUMC Factors that could lead to a downgrade » Material and sustained decline in credit health of VUMC » Steep decline in total wealth including unrestricted liquidity » Significant increase in financial leverage » For the short-term ratings, inability to maintain adequate daily liquidity coverage of demand debt or other evidence of riskier treasury management practices This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 15 June 2021 Vanderbilt University, TN: Update to credit analysis MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE Key indicators Exhibit 2 VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY, TN Median: Aa 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Rated Private Universities Total FTE Enrollment 12,085 12,052 12,184 12,412 12,718 3,187 Operating Revenue ($Billion) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 0.3 Annual Change in Operating Revenue (%) -69.7 5.6 1.3 1.9 6.1 4.4 Total Cash & Investments ($Billion) 5.0 5.4 5.7 7.8 7.7 1.7 Total Debt ($Million) 300.0 366.5 359.1 536.5 542.1 317.2 Spendable Cash & Investments to Total Debt (x) 12.7 11.4 12.2 11.7 11.5 3.7 Spendable Cash & Investments to Operating Expenses (x) 3.4 3.5 3.7 4.9 4.8 3.0 Monthly Days Cash on Hand (x) 654 620 585 843 732 399 EBIDA Margin (%) 17.6 16.7 17.9 15.1 18.9 14.3 Total Debt to EBIDA (x) 1.4 1.7 1.5 2.6 2.0 6.0 Annual Debt Service Coverage (x) 3.2 13.0 12.7 8.3 12.6 3.1 Annual change in operating revenue in 2016 includes impact of VU-VUMC Reorganization which closed in April 2016 Source: Moody's Investors Service Profile Vanderbilt University is a private research university located in Nashville, Tennessee. Total full-time equivalent (FTE) enrollment for the university's comprehensive array of undergraduate, graduate, and professional programs stood at 12,718 in fall 2020. Undergraduate students comprised 55% of the university's total FTE enrollment. Detailed credit considerations Market profile: comprehensive research university with excellent demand and competitive positioning Vanderbilt's diverse academic programs and solid reputation will continue to translate into excellent student demand. Demand for academic programs when combined with its financial strength and exceptional strategic planning provide the university with excellent strategic positioning. Demand for graduate and professional programs that comprise around 45% of enrollment remains strong and contributes to net tuition revenue strength. Management guidance for fall 2021 indicates ongoing student demand gains. Net tuition per student has grown steadily, reaching $28,164 in fiscal 2020. The university's commitment to socioeconomic diversity within its student body, however, has translated into increasing tuition discounting which came in at 43% in fiscal 2020. Vanderbilt increasingly competes with other top private universities across the US. Those top competitors typically have more than twice the wealth per student than Vanderbilt and typically much high average gifts per student, allowing them greater ability to invest in programs as well as to fund merit and need-based student aid. The university's sizeable research enterprise remains stable, with significant exposure to federal funding. Research expenses totaled $242 million in fiscal 2020, not including the research activities of VUMC. Operating performance: strong performance aided by diverse revenue streams Vanderbilt's operating performance will remain strong with prospects buoyed by sound financial planning and prudent endowment spending. The university produced an operating cashflow margin of 19% in fiscal 2020 with annual debt service of coverage of 12.6x. Prospects for solid operating performance over time are also bolstered by management's close attention to overhead costs. Concerted efforts to rein in the costs of support functions and enhance administrative efficiency should continue to support both solid operating performance and programmatic investments. The reorganization of VUMC favorably altered the university's operating performance and revenue diversity. In fiscal 2015 before restatement, 68% of the university's $4 billion of operating revenue came from patient care, in fiscal 2020 the largest revenue source was tuition and auxiliaries at 32% of operating revenue. The university's operating health, however, will remain tethered to the fiscal 3 15 June 2021 Vanderbilt University, TN: Update to credit analysis MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE health of the separate VUMC. The affiliation agreement between the university and the new not-for-profit includes various flows of funds and exchanges. On a combined basis these revenue sources comprised 20% of the university fiscal 2020 revenue base. Vanderbilt's practice of spending less than 5% of trailing average of endowment value translates into stronger operating performance and supports growth of the endowment's inflation-adjusted spending power over time. Investment income as a portion of overall revenue was 22% in fiscal 2020. Wealth and liquidity: growing wealth and liquidity supports credit quality Vanderbilt remains well poised to continue to increase its wealth through donor support, prudent investment management and retained surpluses. Total cash and investments were $7.7 billion at fiscal year end 2020, underpinning its credit strength and providing a substantial buffer. Favorably, over $6 billion of the university's cash and investments are spendable. The university's total wealth increased 53% between fiscal year 2016 and 2020, aided by net proceeds from the sale of a portion of its base trademark license revenue from VUMC. With engaged alumni and a solid track record of donor support, the university will continue to fund incremental program investments made possible through philanthropy. Total gift revenue was $109 million in fiscal 2020. This is a strong level but below some of the university's competitive peers. Vanderbilt's well diversified endowment had a negative 0.1% return in fiscal 2020. Endowment liquidity remains solid with 60% of the pool available within one year. Unfunded commitments as of June 30, 2020 were approximately 12% of the total pool. Liquidity With a variety of potential liquidity demands from university operations, self liquidity debt, and private capital commitments, Vanderbilt maintains very strong liquidity. Monthly liquidity at June 30, 2020 of $2.4 billion translates to a strong 732 monthly days cash on hand. As of March 31, 2021, Vanderbilt had $487 million of discounted daily liquidity. On that same date the university had no commercial paper outstanding under its total $200 million CP program. Strong treasury management and reporting discipline also informs our credit opinion.