PONTES SOBRE O ATLÂNTICO Catastrofista, Realista E/Ou Otimista? Joana Araújo Lopes Definição E Thomas C
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nº 154 nº 2019 ezembro D EXtra DossiÊ SOFIA MARTINS GERALDES A ESTRATÉGIA DE CIBERSEGURANÇA DA UNIÃO EUROPEIA: PONTES SOBRE O ATLÂNTICO CATASTROFISTA, REALISTA E/OU OTIMISTA? JOANA ARAÚJO LOPES DEFINIÇÃO E THOMAS C. BRUNEAU BRAZIL AND PORTUGAL: THE PATH TO MILITARY INFLUENCE RESPOSTA AO TERRORISMO NA UE E EM PORTUGAL: O QUE FAZER DAS MULHERES IN POLITICS VIA COUP OR ELECTION PEDRO SEABRA DESAFIOS E OpORTUNIDADES E CRIANÇAS AFILIADAS AO DAESH ? DO MULTILATERALISMO NO AtLÂNTICO SUL JOSÉ FRANCISCO PAVIA A UNIDADE O C I ESTRATÉGICA DO AtLÂNTICO: IMPORTANTE PARA PORTUGAL, NEM TANTO PARA O T BRASIL? ANTONIO RUY DE ALMEIDA SILVA E DANILO MARCONDES GLOBALIZAÇÃO, TÂN SEGURANÇA E DEFESA NO AtLÂNTICO SUL RE O AL B ISSN 0870-757X 00154 ES SO Dezembro T 2019 InstInstInstituituitutototo InInsInstitutstituttitutooo 977 087075 7007 ON n.º 154 ddada aDe De Defesfesfesaa aN N aNacaciconaionaionalll P ddada Da D efesDefesefesaa Na Na Nacaciocionionanalall PONTES SOBRE O ATLÂNTICO THOMAS C. BRUNEAU BRAZIL AND PORTUGAL: THE PATH TO MILITARY INFLUENCE IN POLITICS VIA COUP OR ELECTION PEDRO SEABRA DESAFIOS E OpORTUNIDADES DO MULTILATERALISMO NO AtLÂNTICO SUL JOSÉ FRANCISCO PAVIA A UNIDADE ESTRATÉGICA DO AtLÂNTICO: IMPORTANTE PARA PORTUGAL, NEM TANTO PARA O BRASIL? ANTONIO RUY DE ALMEIDA SILVA E DANILO MARCONDES GLOBALIZAÇÃO, SEGURANÇA E DEFESA NO AtLÂNTICO SUL Dezembro 2019 n.º 154 NAÇÃO E DEFESA Revista Quadrimestral – P.V.P. 8,50 € Conselho de Redação Diretora Isabel Ferreira Nunes Editor Luís Cunha Assistente Editorial António Baranita Conselho Editorial Ana Santos Pinto, António Horta Fernandes, António Paulo Duarte, Armando Marques Guedes, Bruno Cardoso Reis, Carlos Branco, Daniel Pinéu, Francisco Proença Garcia, João Vieira Borges, José Luís Pinto Ramalho, José Manuel Freire Nogueira, Luís Leitão Tomé, Manuel Ennes Ferreira, Maria do Céu Pinto, Mendo Castro Henriques, Miguel Monjardino, Paulo Jorge Canelas de Castro, Paulo Viegas Nunes, Raquel Freire, Sandra Balão, Teresa Ferreira Rodrigues, Vasco Rato, Victor Marques dos Santos, Vítor Rodrigues Viana. 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Praceta da República, 13 • 2620-162 Póvoa de Santo Adrião – Portugal Tel.: 218 494 141/43 Fax.: 218 492 061 E‑mail: [email protected] ISSN 0870‑757X Publicação Eletrónica ISSN 2183‑9662 Depósito Legal 54 801/92 Tiragem 750 exemplares Anotado na ERC Registada na Latindex – Sistema Regional de Informação em Linha para Revistas Científicas da América Latina, Caraíbas, Espanha e Portugal; MIAR, RedAlyC e JSTOR. Disponível no RCAAP – Repositório Científico de Acesso Aberto de Portugal O conteúdo dos artigos é da inteira responsabilidade dos autores Nação e Defesa 2 Pontes Sobre o Atlântico Brazil and Portugal: the Path to Military Influence in Politics Via Coup or Election 7 Thomas C. Bruneau Desafios e Oportunidades do Multilateralismo no Atlântico Sul 37 Pedro Seabra A Unidade Estratégica do Atlântico: Importante para Portugal, Nem Tanto para o Brasil? 55 José Francisco Pavia Globalização, Segurança e Defesa no Atlântico Sul 69 Antonio Ruy de Almeida Silva e Danilo Marcondes Extra Dossiê A Estratégia de Cibersegurança da União Europeia: Catastrofista, Realista e/ou Otimista? 91 Sofia Martins Geraldes Definição e Resposta ao Terrorismo na UE e em Portugal: o Que Fazer das Mulheres e Crianças Afiliadas ao Daesh? 109 Joana Araújo Lopes 3 Nação e Defesa Nação e Defesa 4 Pontes Sobre o Atlântico Brazil and Portugal: the Path to Military Influence in Politics Via Coup or Election Thomas C. Bruneau Thomas Bruneau is Distinguished Professor Emeritus of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgradu- ate School, Monterey California. He joined the Department in 1987, became Chairman in 1989, and conti- nued in that position until 1995. He became Director of the Center for Civil Military Relations in November 2000, a position he held until December 2004. He left U.S. Government service in February 2013. He has seven recently published books. The most recent book, co-edited with Aurel Croissant is Civil-Military Rela- tions: Control and Effectiveness Across Regimes which was published in 2019. He co-writes the annual report on Portugal for the Bertelsmann Foundation Sustainable Governance Indicators publication. He has also recently published several scholarly articles on issues of civil-military relations, outsourcing security, and intelligence reform in new democracies. Between 1998 and 2001 he served as rapporteur of the Defense Policy Board that provides the Secretary of Defense and his staff with independent advice on questions of national security and defense policy. Abstract Resumo Utilizing a conceptual framework that requi‑ Brasil e Portugal: o caminho da influência res analysis of democratic civilian control and militar na política via golpe de Estado ou military effectiveness, the article compares Eleições and contrasts Brazil and Portugal. In Portugal the institutions have been established to Utilizando uma estrutura conceptual que requer achieve democratic civilian control and mili‑ análise do controle civil democrático e a eficácia tary effectiveness, mainly international pea‑ militar, o artigo compara e contrasta Brasil e Por- cekeeping and humanitarian assistance. In tugal. Em Portugal, as instituições foram criadas contrast, in Brazil neither institutions ensu‑ para alcançar o controlo civil democrático e a eficá- ring democratic civilian control nor military cia militar, principalmente na manutenção da paz effectiveness have been established. The arti‑ internacional e assistência humanitária. Em con- cle argues that the differences in strategic cul‑ traste, no Brasil não foram estabelecidas institu- ture are key to understanding the contrasting ições que garantam o controlo civil democrático experience of these two countries. nem a eficácia militar. O artigo argumenta que as diferenças na cultura estratégica são fundamen- Key Words: Civil‑Military Relations; Demo‑ tais para entender a experiência contrastante cratic Civilian Control; Military Effectiveness; destes dois países. Brazil; Portugal; Strategic Culture. Palavras-chave: Relações Civis-Militares; Con- trolo civil democrático; Eficácia Militar; Brasil; Portugal; Cultura Estratégica. Dezembro | 2019 N.º 154 7 Nação e Defesa pp. 7‑35 Thomas C. Bruneau This article compares and contrasts the experiences of two “Third Wave” democra‑ cies: Portugal, which initiated the Third Wave by a military coup on 25 April 1974, and Brazil, where the highly negotiated democratic transition began in 1974, ten years after the military coup that brought the military into power, and was formally concluded in 1985 with a civilian president taking office. Currently in Brazil, however, there is a tremendous influx of active duty and retired senior military officers into the Jair Bolsonaro administration, causing concern that the military is returning to power. The resolution of the relationship of the military to civilian power was settled in Portugal by the early 1990s, and there is no doubt regarding democratic consolidation. In Brazil, in contrast to Portugal, the main issues of civil‑ military relations were never resolved, and the massive involvement of active duty and retired officers in the government raises questions about democratic consolida‑ tion. In this paper, the author attempts, utilizing a framework, to assess the causes and implications of the influx of military officers into government positions. The author contrasts both the democratic civilian control and the military effectiveness of the two countries. Whereas in the conclusion to his recent book, co‑edited with Aurel Croissant, Civil-Military Relations: Control and Effectiveness Across Regimes they found from the analysis of case studies for civil‑military relations in ten countries ranging from democracies to autocracies that the relationship between control and effectiveness is variable, in a more recent study on Colombia the author and a colleague found that control and effectiveness were achieved simultaneously (Bru‑ neau and Croissant, 2019; Bruneau and Goetze, 2019). The framework, based on research on civil‑military relations in new democracies in South America, Southeast Asia, Africa, and East/Central Europe seeks to provide a basis for comparative analysis. The data utilized in this chapter comes from published books and articles, official documents, on‑line resources, and personal interviews by the author who has conducted research and published over several decades in both countries. Introduction Superficially, the only feature common to Brazil and Portugal is the Portuguese language, as Portugal was the colonial power and Brazil its colony, which entitles them to be members