Doctor Thesis

Doctoral theses at NTNU, 2018:215 Carl Fredrik Rehn Carl Fredrik Rehn Ship Design under Uncertainty ISBN 978-82-326-3220-6 (printed version) ISBN 978-82-326-3221-3 (electronic version) Doctoral theses at NTNU, 2018:215 NTNU Faculty of Engineering Norwegian University of Science and Technology Department of MarineTechnology Carl Fredrik Rehn Ship Design under Uncertainty Thesis for the degree of Philosophiae Doctor Trondheim, June 2018 Norwegian University of Science and Technology Faculty of Engineering Department of MarineTechnology NTNU Norwegian University of Science and Technology Thesis for the degree of Philosophiae Doctor Faculty of Engineering Department of MarineTechnology © Carl Fredrik Rehn ISBN 978-82-326-3220-6 (printed version) ISBN 978-82-326-3221-3 (electronic version) Doctoral theses at NTNU, 2018:215 Printed by Skipnes Kommunikasjon as Abstract The purpose of this thesis is to develop knowledge to design better ships. More specifically, it concerns the development and application of effective methods and models for handling future contextual uncertainty in the early design stages. Furthermore, it investigates whether changeability in design can improve profitability by reducing risks and enabling upside opportunities. Changeability is the ability of a system to change form, function, or operation, and is a collective term for change- related system properties such as flexibility, adaptability, and agility. The work is motivated by three general characteristics of the maritime industry: high market uncertainty, capital-intensive projects, and long project time horizons. The thesis uses the design of an offshore construction vessel as a primary case. The thesis systematically addresses four research objectives (RO): RO1 Develop models that effectively capture relevant aspects of the future uncertain operating context. RO2 Define and quantify the level of changeability for a system. RO3 Develop an understanding of technical tradeoffs for the realization of changeable ship design solutions. RO4 Develop models to evaluate changeability in design – operationalizing the link between uncertainty, design variables, and operational strategies. The thesis supplements four main articles attached, and five supporting papers. The three contributions (C) of the research project are: C1 A framework for describing and quantifying changeable design alternatives, applicable to ship design as well as engineering design in general. C2 An assessment of the applicability of methods and models for handling uncertainty in ship design, primarily from the real options and systems engineering domains. C3 An identification of potentially valuable changeable ship design solutions, specifically being “prepared for retrofits” for two cases: fuel flexibility for transport ships and mission flexibility for non-transport vessels. The research project concludes by highlighting that proactive consideration of changeability in ship design can be of significant value. The primary goal of this research project is fulfilled within the time and resource boundaries provided. This research project contributes to the knowledge on conceptual ship design under uncertainty, and for the design of changeable engineering systems in general. i Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Niels Bohr iii Preface This thesis is prepared in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU). The work has been conducted from September 2015 to April 2018 and has been carried out primarily at the Department of Marine Technology in Trondheim, Norway. The research has been conducted under the supervision of Professor Stein Ove Erikstad, Professor Bjørn Egil Asbjørnslett, and Professor Stein-Erik Fleten. The fall semester of 2016 was spent as a visiting researcher at the Systems Engineering Advancement research initiative (SEAri) at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Cambridge, USA, under the supervision of Dr. Donna H. Rhodes. The project funding was provided by NTNU. The Norway-America Association (NORAM) and the Anders Jahre’s Grant provided funding in support for the visiting research conducted at MIT. The Norwegian Shipowners’ Association Fund provided partial funding in support for attendance at several conferences during the research period. The target audience for this work include both researchers and practitioners with interest in one or more of the following topics: ship design, systems engineering, strategic decision making, flexibility and other ilities, decision making under uncertainty, real options evaluation for engineering applications, structuring of ill- structured problems, multi-attribute decision making and tradespace exploration. Carl Fredrik Rehn Trondheim, 2018 v Acknowledgments This work would have been impossible without significant support from many competent people of which I am very thankful. First, I would like to thank my main supervisor Professor Stein Ove Erikstad for giving me the opportunity to work on this exciting research project, and for his great support throughout the research period. Furthermore, I would like to thank my co-supervisors Professor Bjørn Egil Asbjørnslett and Professor Stein-Erik Fleten for valuable advice and interesting discussions. At NTNU, I have worked closely with Sigurd Solheim Pettersen and Jose Jorge Garcia Agis (also affiliated with Ulstein). Thank you for a tremendous collaborative period, it would not have been the same without you. A special thank you goes to my office mate Sigurd, who had to put up with me in a room for several years. Most of the research presented in this thesis was conducted under constant discussion and feedback from Sigurd. I hope it was of mutual interest. I would also like to thank Professor Kjetil Fagerholt, Professor Sverre Steen, Professor Bjørnar Pettersen, Professor Jørgen Amdahl and Professor Bernt Johan Leira for helpful advice whenever asked. During the research period, I have also had the pleasure of co-supervising several MSc degree students. I am especially grateful for taking part in the work by Carsten Christensen, Morten Andreas Strøm, and Jon Hovem Leonhardsen. I would also like to thank Martin Kristiansen, Martin Hjelmeland, Minjoo Choi, Jan Vidar Ulveseter, Jan-Tore Horn, Emil Smilden, Pål Takle Bore, Ole Alexander Eidsvik, Øyvind Øksnes Dalheim, John Martin Kleven Godø and Henrik Schmidt for stimulating discussions, especially around the lunch table. During the research period, I have also been fortunate to collaborate with Ulstein International AS. I am especially thankful for all help and valuable advice from Dr. Per Olaf Brett. Additional gratitude is extended to Dr. Tore Ulstein, Ali Ebrahimi, and Andre Keane, for exciting discussions providing me with essential perspectives from the industry to support my theoretical work. At MIT, I would extend my gratitude for support and guidance from Dr. Donna Rhodes and Dr. Adam Ross. I would also like to thank Professor Richard de Neufville for inspiration and engaging lectures, in addition to Professor Olivier de Weck and Dr. Bruce Cameron. Professor Richard de Neufville needs special thanks, as he made me interested in the research topic during an earlier exchange stay at MIT in 2013 – 2014. I am also grateful for getting to know Matt Fitzgerald, Mike Curry, Joel Ong, Parker Vascik and Erling Shane German. Thank you for stimulating discussions in, as well as outside of, the office. Outside NTNU, MIT and Ulstein, I have had the pleasure of being in contact with researchers at The Norwegian School of Economics (NHH). I thank Professor Roar Ådland for welcoming me multiple times to NHH, and for providing me with new vii perspectives. I am also grateful for advice from Professor Stein Wallace and Professor Gunnar Eskeland at NHH. I would also like to thank Dr. H. Elizabeth Lindstad at SINTEF Ocean for exciting discussions and collaboration. Additionally, I have been welcomed several times to DNV GL, where I would like to thank Dr. Ketil Aamnes and Martin Wold for providing industry experience to support my research. I would also generally like to thank the anonymous reviewers for giving valuable feedback to the papers. Finally, I would like to thank my friends and family for their continuous encouragement, especially my parents Helga and Lars, and Erle for her patience and support. viii Table of Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................ i Preface ........................................................................................................................ v Acknowledgments .................................................................................................... vii Table of Contents ....................................................................................................... ix List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................. xi List of Figures ......................................................................................................... xiii List of Publications ................................................................................................... xv List of Tables .......................................................................................................... xvii 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................

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