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Battersea Q4 2015 Introduction

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Battersea Q4 2015 Introduction Balham Battersea Battersea Park Chelsea Clapham East Putney Fulham Gloucester Road Hammersmith & Shepherd’s Bush Kensington Notting Hill Pimlico & Westminster South Kensington Southfields West Putney The Battersea Q4 2015 Introduction Anyone who owns a property in London is a As well as publicly available sources, we have used property investor. Our lives and plans often depend the proprietary data that we have been capturing on the performance of what is likely to be the since 1996 to help us make decisions and provide largest asset we own. So perhaps it will be helpful to advice and guidance to our clients. take more of an investor’s view of the market. D&GAM has helped us focus on the data that counts To produce this report we worked closely with and we think the results make fascinating reading. D&G Asset Management, a company we co-founded If you would like to learn more about the in 2005. They deploy money into London residential Battersea area, please do get in touch with our office property all the time, so they are constantly analysing on Northcote Road. Contact details can be found on different areas and the assets within those areas, the back page. seeking to maximise returns. Property Capital values in Battersea continued their Values steady uptick In Q3 2015, capital values in Battersea continued Battersea Nominal Property Values their steady uptick. As you can see from the chart, however, prices of two bedroom flats and three Sales Q3 2015 YTD Since Q2 2014 and four bedroom houses remain below the peak in June 2014. 1 Bed 1.01% 3.09% 0.00% In the last quarter, capital values in Battersea Flats outperformed many other Douglas & Gordon Emerging Prime offices, where prices fell on average 2 Bed 0.72% 2.19% -6.67% by 0.56%. Flats Q3 2015 in more detail 3 Bed 0.36% 1.82% -6.67% I Property prices in the Emerging Prime residential Houses market fall into three brackets; up to £1.1m, £1.1m-£1.7m and £1.7m+. 4 Bed Houses 0.66% 2.33% -12.29% I The market below £1.1m continues to be firm. The top end of the market (£1.7m+) remains weighed Source: D&G proprietary data down by the increases in SDLT rates. I Land registry data shows that between H1 and H2 I After the ups and downs of the last 18 months, 2014, sales volumes in Battersea declined: flats -27%, Q3 2015 saw the return of a more normal market. terraced houses -44% and semi-detached houses -54%. Sensibly priced, well-located and well-presented properties, requiring little or no work, are achieving a good level of interest. Poorly located properties in In Q3 2015 buyers were price bad condition are taking longer to sell. sensitive I Q3 has seen a robust house market between £1.2m and £1.6m. Having fallen in H2 2014 this segment is I From a market perspective, these low volume now benefiting from a “reverse ripple effect”. This sell-offs are a characteristic of “Prime” markets, is where potential buyers who have looked further where demand for property in an area always afield are returning, after concluding that it is worth exists and buyers return after a short period of paying a premium to own in Battersea. adjustment. I The local French market has retracted due to I Our research suggests that in Q3 2015 buyers were a new French school opening in Wembley. We price sensitive as borrowers were wrongly guided have, however, started to see some purchases to expect higher interest rates. See page 4 for our associated with the US embassy, which opens in outlook on monetary policy. Nine Elms in 2017. Outlook Background factors in play I Sellers should remain realistic and ignore headlines I Homeowners across our Emerging Prime offices about UK national house price rises as they do have large equity positions and are therefore not apply to London. The bull market in Battersea discretionary sellers. ended in April 2014. For more information about D&GAM please go to www.dngam.com. This report is for general information purposes only. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Douglas & Gordon. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Douglas & Gordon accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. How an investor looks at the market Residential property investors use two key infrastructure projects, demographics of the area, measures: the capital value of the property and the economy (in particular, interest and tax rates) its net rental yield. and the wider geopolitical picture. You can make money from an increase in capital The interplay of these factors is what determines value and earn additional income by renting out investment returns and what makes property a property you own. The net yield is the annual investment decisions so interesting. We hope rent, less expenses, divided by the property’s this report provides some help as you assess capital value. your options. Both are important and are influenced by many factors including: supply of new properties, Rental values in Battersea outperformed Rental Growth Emerging Prime & Yield In Q3 2015, average rental values across D&G Battersea Nominal Rental Growth Land rose by 0.3%. Prime offices averaged a growth of 0.9% and Emerging Prime offices Rents Q3 2015 YTD Since Q2 2014 produced a very small increase of 0.03%. Against this background rental growth in Battersea 1 Bed averaged 0.9%. The breakdown of the numbers Flats 0.00% 2.67% 10.00% paints a complicated picture. 2 Bed Corporate budgets are tightening - a Flats 2.06% 7.61% 12.50% message to house owners I In our last report we described the Battersea 3 Bed house rental market as “subdued”. As Q3 2015 Houses 4.32% 8.21% 11.54% unfolded, pockets of real weakness started to emerge and the higher up the chain one 4 Bed went, the more acute the problem became. Houses -2.86% 0.00% 1.19% One reason for this is that domestic renters are becoming increasingly cash strapped. Source: D&G proprietary data Another reason is that Battersea is one of our “core” Emerging Prime offices that has recently Current Rental Gross Yields October 2015 experienced a decline in corporate relocation budgets. 1 Bed Flats 3.70% – 4.50% 2 Bed Flats 3.20% – 4.00% Investors need to think ahead 3 Bed Houses 2.20% – 3.60%% I Over the past year we have written about the 4 Bed Houses 2.20% – 3.60%% trend of corporate tenants looking for better value in lower-priced areas. We are now seeing 10 Yr UK Gilt Yield 1.76% more tightening of the belt, which will further impact the corporate rental market going forward. Investors need to think ahead. FTSE All Sh Yield 3.60% I Fewer corporates means landlords will need UK Base Rate 0.50% to invest in upgrading their properties to appeal to the decreasing pool of prospective tenants, Source: D&G proprietary data and/or consider the growing professional sharer market. I On a brighter note for investors, rental values in the Battersea flats market were firm in Q3, as indeed I Those house owners who have been averse to the sharers market will be interested to know they were across D&G Land. One explanation for this that the demographics are shifting. Our internal is that the sales market has not, as yet, taken off and data shows that 60% of our tenants in Battersea people are staying put in rented accomodation. are over 30 – the new so called “generation rent”: people who aspire to buy and want to Outlook maintain excellent credit records but have to I In this low growth and low inflationary environment, remain in rental accommodation for longer. we remain cautious on rental growth. Market “Bad” news for the global economy equates to “good” context news for UK real estate assets? In Q3 the global economic backdrop to the London Global economic backdrop to Q3 2015 property market was challenging (see chart). Some Recent turmoil in emerging market economies has seen losses commentators believe that the recent turmoil in emerging across indexes and major commodities during Q3 2015 0% market economies is the third stage of the global financial crisis that began in 2008. The implications of this are: 0 -5% 0 FTSE 100 S&P 500 -7.05% I Central banks across the world remain worried by no FTSE -7.00 % inflation: Eurofirst-9.20% 3 Copper -10.50% In the USA: 2014 – 15 US median household income -10% fell In the Eurozone: Inflation turned negative in Nikkei-14.10% 225 September 2015 (notwithstanding E 500 billion + of -15% asset purchases by the ECB this year) In Japan: The third quarter looks set to contract after -20% the second quarter contracted 1.2% (notwithstanding Brent Oil $665 billion of asset purchases by BOJ over the last -24.00% year) -25% I Capital flight from emerging market economies will pose tighten the monetary reins as a next step to support UK a major threat to global growth (between 2010 and growth and return inflation to target.”* 2015, China was responsible for 50% of global growth) Since 2009 we have been arguing that the threat of I There will also be renewed threats to capital adequacy of deflation will overhang the global economy for many US/UK/European major banks.
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