Responses to Supervisors Questions

COUNTY OF LOUDOUN, VIRGINIA

TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM

DATE: April 26, 2012 TO: Board of Supervisors FROM: Andrew Beacher, Director, Transportation Services Mark Adams, Director, Management & Financial Services RE: Responses to Supervisor Delgaudio’s Metrorail Questions Submitted 3/5/12 CC: Tim Hemstreet, Linda Neri, Charles Yudd, John Sandy, Leslie Hansbarger, Julie Grandfield, Danny Davis, Ben Mays, Anna Nissinen

1. What are the population and employment densities of planned Loudoun County Metro station areas? Provide current and projected one mile, three mile, five mile radius data in 5 year increments to year 2040.

Tables showing population and employment as of 2010, and forecasted through 2040, are attached (Attachment 1). Both total figures and density per square mile are provided for one, three, and five mile radii of the three stations that would be located within Loudoun County (Route 772, Route 606, and Dulles Airport), and for the Route 28 station, which would be located in Fairfax County near the Loudoun County border. Population, employment, and associated densities are only for the areas within Loudoun County. Data for the county as a whole are also provided, for comparison purposes.

The attached map shows the location of the one, three, and five mile radii. The buffered areas encircling each station overlap, but population and employment are not double counted in these instances.

To illustrate forecasted development in the vicinity of each station, tables for the one mile radius around individual stations (Route 772, Route 606, and Route 28) are also provided. Since the one mile radius around the Dulles Airport station encompasses only airport property, a table is not provided for this station.

Forecasts are based on Loudoun County’s latest data, submitted to the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) in February 2012 as part of the region’s Round 8.1 cooperative forecasts. Round 8.1 is scheduled for final approval in July 2012. No changes are expected to Loudoun’s forecasts.

The Robert Charles Lesser & Co. (RCLCO) report, Market and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Phase 2 Metrorail Extension to Loudoun County (April 2012), also provides forecasts for the areas surrounding the proposed metrorail stations. These forecasts are based on grouping parcels, rather than applying strict radii, and reflect RCLCO’s view of likely future development. Exhibits I-23 through I-28 show the parcels RCLCO included as part of each station area.

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Section V exhibits show forecasted development and fiscal impacts for each station area, with and without inflation, for Phase 2 metrorail to Loudoun and also with Phase 1 only.

2. Have Dulles Rail ridership projections from the 2004 Environmental Impact Statement (which did not show the projection assumptions made) been updated? If not, why not? Please provide.

No, the Federal Transit Administration did not update the ridership projections from the 2004 Final Environmental Impact Statement; however, DESMAN Associates, the author of the Metrorail Parking Demand Study commissioned by Loudoun County, examined existing population and land use forecasts models to determine the number of daily boardings at the two stations in Loudoun County (refer to page 6 of the DESMAN Study):

Figure 1. DESMAN’s Forecasted Daily Boardings 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Rte 606 3,932 4,114 4,391 4,572 4,713 4,791 Rte 772 6,103 6,386 6,814 7,097 7,314 7,437 12,053 12,52013,230 13,699 14,062 14,268

*Source: Refer to pages 9 and 10 of DESMAN Associate’s Metrorail Parking Demand Study.

3. Why does the Federal Transit Administration only project 10,000 new riders for Dulles Rail and indicate most projected riders are presently bus passengers?

According to the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS), released in 2004, the Federal Transit Administration states, “The full LPA is projected to attract 41,600 new average weekday trips to the regional transit system in its opening year (2015) while the Wiehle Avenue Extension would attract 29,100 in its opening year (2011). In 2025, the full LPA would attract nearly 47,800 new average weekday trips to the regional transit system while the Wiehle Avenue Extension would attract 34,300 new trips (38 percent fewer new trips)” (Chapter 6, page 6-8). There is no indication from the FEIS that most projected riders are presently bus passengers.

The Loudoun County Office of Transportation Services has published a Transit Development Plan (TDP), in which they conducted a market analysis to examine current and future (year 2030) conditions. The TDP indicates that only 2% of bus ridership will be lost to Metrorail ridership.

4. What is the current and projected commuting modal travel split for Loudoun County residents? Show shares of single passenger auto, carpool, bus transit, taxi, commuter rail., walk, work at home?

See figure below. Page 2 of 14

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Means of Transportation to Work Public Transportation Worked at home 2.5% 6.5%

Carpooled 9.7% Bicycle Walked 0.2% 1.6% Other means 0.8% Drove Alone Other Motorcycle 78.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Taxicab 0.1%

Sourced from the 2010 U.S. Census American Community Survey (ACS) estimates accessed using American Fact Finder.

5. What are current and projected rail ridership totals by zip code origin and destination for Loudoun residents who work in Loudoun County and each other jurisdiction accounting for the projected 5% of the total commuter traffic?

Answer is included in response to answer to question #6.

6. What are current and projected rail ridership totals by zip code origin and destination for non- Loudoun County residents who work in Loudoun County?

Current Ridership

Data showing origin and destination is available from the 2007 Metrorail Passenger Survey, conducted by the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA). This data

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COUNTY OF LOUDOUN, VIRGINIA

TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM provides information on metrorail riders in 2007. As WMATA has mentioned, a new survey will be done in 2012. This data describes current, rather than forecasted, ridership.

Using the 2007 data, the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) has tabulated data for Loudoun County riders, and examined data for the Shady Grove and Rockville stations as well. This data is shown in COG’s paper, Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations (Attachment 2). See pages 1 through 6 for data on Loudoun County riders, pages 7 through 9 for data on boardings at stations located at or beyond the capital beltway, and pages 9 through 16 for data on the Shady Grove and Rockville stations.

Based on the survey data, COG was able to estimate that there were 4,685 weekday riders on metrorail from Loudoun, based on a sample of 435 survey responses. Almost all of these riders started their trip from home. For these home based trips, COG was able to show where riders lived and the stations where they got on the metrorail system (Figure 1 on page 3). Although COG was not able to use zip codes, they did show how many riders came from four areas of the county (Figure 2 on page 4).

The destinations of non-Loudoun County residents using Metrorail to get to work in Loudoun could not be determined from the 2007 Metrorail Passenger Survey, since this survey did not collect the destination address of metrorail trips.

Forecasted Ridership

Both the DESMAN parking demand study and the FEIS addressed forecasted ridership. According to DESMAN, an estimated 12,053 in daily boardings will occur at the two Loudoun stations in year 2018. By year 2025, DESMAN forecasts 13,230 in daily boardings. By 2040, there will be an estimated 14,268 daily boardings.

Figure 1: DESMAN’s Forecasted Daily Boardings 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Rte 606 3,932 4,114 4,391 4,572 4,713 4,791 Rte 772 6,103 6,386 6,814 7,097 7,314 7,437 12,053 12,52013,230 13,699 14,062 14,268

The FEIS did not forecast daily boardings for year 2018, however by year 2025, it estimates a total daily boarding of 11,446 (Table 6.1-4, as shown below). For comparison, DESMAN estimates 13,230 riders, a difference of 1,784. The difference between the two studies is that DESMAN took into consideration recent land use changes that would affect Loudoun. The FEIS does not consider such changes, as it was published in calendar year 2004.

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Table 6.1-4: Forecast Daily Station Boardings in Dulles Corridor No Build Locally Preferred Alternative Alternative Wiehle Avenue Extension Wiehle Avenue Extension Full LPA (2011) (2025) (2025)

Corridor Corridor Metrorail Express Bus Metrorail Express Bus Metrorail Tysons East n.a. 3,803 n.a. 3,920 n.a. 4,092 Tysons Central 123 n.a. 5,209 n.a. 5,726 n.a. 6,067 Tysons Central 7 n.a. 3,306 n.a. 3,595 n.a. 3,838 Tysons West n.a. 4,002 n.a. 4,391 n.a. 4,627

Wiehle Avenue n.a. 8,244 n.a. 9,697 n.a. 6,498 Reston Parkway n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 4,708 Reston Town Center n.a. n.a. 1,546 n.a. 1,534 n.a. Herndon-Monroe n.a. n.a. 4,746 n.a. 5,531 8,775 Route 28 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1,226 Dulles Airport n.a. n.a. 3,466 n.a. 4,986 6,200 Route 606 n.a. n.a. 1,485 n.a. 1,661 4,485 Route 772 n.a. n.a. 1,973 n.a. 3,110 6,961

7. Has anybody ever shown, with studies, not just broad conclusions, that Dulles Rail Phase 2 is even remotely feasible -either from an economic or financial perspective? If so, provide report or other evidence to support Phase 2 feasibility.

The RCLCO report, Market and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Phase 2 Metrorail Extension to Loudoun County (April 2012), forecasts a net positive fiscal impact of the Phase 2 extension of metrorail to Loudoun County, compared to Phase 1 only. Changes in the level of development and the net fiscal impact are provided in the Key Conclusions section of the report, pp. 3-7. While the RCLCO report only addresses revenues versus county non-metro expenditures, county staff is developing strategies to address metro capital and operating costs to present to the Board.

8. What is the projected proportion of total Dulles Corridor travel demand comprised by Phase 2 rail ridership - in five years, ten years, twenty years etc?

With the completed Phase 2 extension the projected ridership for the Dulles corridor will generate 57,500 total boardings in year 2025.

(Source: Dulles Corridor Rapid Transit Project: Final Environmental Impact Statement, Table 6.1-3: Average Weekday Transit Patronage Forecasts, p.6-9,see Ref # 1).

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TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM

For riders using the two stations in Loudoun County (Route 606 and Route 772), DESMAN has projected the following (refer to pages 9 and 10) as a baseline measure:

2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Rte 606 3,932 4,114 4,391 4,572 4,713 4,791 Rte 772 6,103 6,386 6,814 7,097 7,314 7,437

9. How many and what proportion of people living in the Dulles Corridor are projected to use phase 2 of the Dulles Rail in five years, ten years, twenty years etc?

The following information pertains to people living in the Dulles Corridor and the percentage of whom will commute to work in the Dulles Corridor using Dulles Rail in 2025  34.4% of trips to work for people within the Dulles Corridor will travel to work in Tysons Corner using Dulles Rail.  17.4% of trips to work for people within the Dulles Corridor will travel to work in Reston using Dulles Rail.  16.2% of trips to work for people within the Dulles Corridor will travel to work in Herndon/Dulles using Dulles Rail.  10.8% of trips to work for people within the Dulles Corridor will travel to work in Loudoun using Dulles Rail. (Source: Dulles Corridor Rapid Transit Project: Final Environmental Impact Statement, Table 6.1-6: Transit Mode Share for Home-Based Work Trips (Trips Produced in the Dulles Corridor), p.6-11, Ref # 3)

10. How many and what proportion of people working in the Dulles Corridor are projected to use phase 2 of Dulles Rail in five years, ten years, twenty years etc?

The following information pertains to people living outside the Dulles Corridor and the percentage of whom will commute to work to the Dulles Corridor using Dulles Rail in 2025  12.6% of trips to work for people within the Dulles Corridor will travel to work in Tysons Corner using Dulles Rail.  9.6% of trips to work for people within the Dulles Corridor will travel to work in Reston using Dulles Rail.  7.9% of trips to work for people within the Dulles Corridor will travel to work in Herndon/Dulles using Dulles Rail.  2.7% of trips to work for people within the Dulles Corridor will travel to work in Loudoun using Dulles Rail. (Source: Dulles Corridor Rapid Transit Project: Final Environmental Impact Statement, Table 6.1-5: Transit Mode Share for Home-Based Work Trips (Trips Attracted to the Dulles Corridor), p.6-11, Ref # 3)

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11. What proportion of phase 2 of Dulles Rail ridership will originate from jurisdictions east of Tysons Corner, within Tysons and at stations on the Dulles Corridor in five years, ten years, twenty years etc?

Work Trips by Origin & Destination Locations Transit (2025) Dulles Arlington & Central Portion of Washington, D.C. 26,000 Corridor Dulles Fairfax (includes portions of Fairfax County not part 8,000 Corridor of the Dulles Corridor) Dulles Dulles Corridor 9,000 Corridor Dulles Montgomery County, MD & Portions of Washington, 8,000 Corridor D.C. outside the central portion of the city. Virginia Other (Alexandria , outlying portions of Dulles 4,000 Loudoun County, and other outlying Virginia Corridor counties) (Source: Dulles Corridor Rapid Transit Project: Final Environmental Impact Statement, Table 1.4-3: Total Weekday Corridor-Related Work Travel by Transit, p.1-35, Ref # 4)

12. What are recent trends in bus transit ridership (by origin in LoCo -Ashburn, Brambleton, Broadlands, Leesburg, Route 606, Sterling, Hamilton, Purcellville, South Riding0 -op costs and revenues?

The long haul buses providing service to destinations in Arlington and Washington D.C. continue to grow in ridership. Services connecting Loudoun to Metrorail at West Falls Church have grown over the prior year, but at a lower level. Growth continues to occur at a similar rate from the park and ride lots in western Loudoun, Leesburg, Dulles South, and the Ashburn- Sterling communities. The Tysons Express service is growing at the most rapid rate, with a 26% increase over FY11. The tables below provide additional information on ridership and revenue.

Ridership 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 Ridership Tysons Express 800,000 Ridership Reverse 600,000 Commute 400,000 Ridership Metro 200,000 Connection Ridership Long Haul 0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Page 7 of 14

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Operating Revenue History 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 Fares 4,000,000 3,000,000 Gas Tax 2,000,000 State 1,000,000 0 FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 ‘07 ‘08 '09 ‘10 '11

13. What are sources of public funds - federal, state and local to subsidize bus transit - last five years and in six year CIP?

Capital funding for bus purchases and transit infrastructure projects comes from federal Congestion Management Air Quality (CMAQ), State Capital Assistance grants, developer proffers and revenues of the commuter bus service (primarily rider fares and gasoline tax allocations). No local tax funding has been used for bus purchases or infrastructure development.

Operating costs are funded primarily through rider fares, along with State operating assistance grants, and gasoline tax allocations. No local tax funding is used for the provision of service.

14. What is projected number by destination of total new daily rail commuters - from Loudoun County to: Dulles Airport, Herndon, Reston, Tysons, Falls Church, Arlington County, DC, Alexandria, MD?

See response to question 15 below.

15. What is projected number by destination daily total new daily rail commuters - to Loudoun County from: Dulles Airport, Herndon, Reston, Tysons, Falls Church, Arlington County, DC, Alexandria, MD in five years, ten years and 20 years?

In response to questions 14 & 15 no comprehensive information could be found at this time citing specific origin and destinations for these time periods, however valuable information may be gleaned from the following two tables. The first table identifies the number of projected boardings for the following stations in year 2025, i.e. the number of people who will get on the metro each day at each location. The second table identifies the number of total work related

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trips that will use transit between the Dulles Corridor and areas in the metropolitan Washington DC area.

Forecasted Daily Station Boardings (2025) Tysons East 4,092 Tysons Central 6,067 123 Tysons Central 7 3,838 Tysons West 4,627 Wiehle Avenue 6,498 Reston Parkway 4,708 Herndon-Monroe 8,775 Route 28 1,226 Dulles Airport 6,200 Route 606 4,485 Route 772 6,961

(Source: Dulles Corridor Rapid Transit Project: Final Environmental Impact Statement, Table 6.1-4: Forecast Daily Station Boardings in Dulles Corridor, p.6-10, Ref # 2)

16. What does WMATA project rail fares from LoCo to be to: Dulles Airport, Herndon, Reston, Tysons, Falls Church, Arlington County, DC, Alexandria, MD? Peak and off peak rates.

Answer by WMATA. Please see response L16 that is included in Attachment 3.

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17. What does WMATA project for operating and maintenance costs for Silver Line in Loudoun County? What has WMATA projected for Fairfax County and Arlington County for these costs? and how accurate have WMATA's projection of costs been? What federal subsidy does WMATA predict will be required in addition to the required contributions of its funding partners, ie., Loudoun, Fairfax, etc?

Answer by WMATA. Please see response L17 that is included in Attachment 3.

18. Does WMATA expect Loudoun County to contribute anything to the existing projected $13.3 billion capital replacement costs of existing 103 mile Metrorail system? What are the projected contributions for maintenance (not ordinary operations) over the next 5 years, ten years, 20 years? What federal subsidy does WMATA predict will be required in addition to the required contributions of its funding partners, ie Loudoun, Fairfax, etc.

Answer by WMATA. Please see response L18 that is included in Attachment 3.

19. Why does WMATA need a maintenance facility for 184 rail cars at Dulles when only 128 rail cars will be for Silver Line? Will WMATA fund the facility costs for the 100+ cars to be used elsewhere?

Answer by WMATA. Please see response L19 that is included in Attachment 3.

20. Will WMATA agree to set fares for Silver Line at or above equivalent costs for driving on Dulles Toll Road? If tolls on DTR are $6 each way, rail fare for similar journey must be at least $6 each way.

Answer by WMATA Please see response L20 that is included in Attachment 3.

21. Will WMATA agree to have its riders pay for at least 25% of total capital costs of Dulles Rail by setting a surcharge on all Metrorail fares for next 30 years?

Answer by WMATA. Please see response L21 that is included in Attachment 3.

22. Will MWAA consider tolls on the Dulles Access Road instead of tolls on the Dulles Toll Road? Will MWAA consider higher parking fees at Dulles Airport instead of tolls on the Dulles Toll Road? Will MWAA consider hotel or food taxes at Dulles Airport (federal property) instead of tolls on the Dulles Toll Road?

Answer by MWAA. Answers to be provided in packet for the May 16th meeting.

23. Will MWAA drop the ten percent scoring bonus for bids on phase 2?

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Answer by MWAA. Answers to be provided in packet for the May 16th meeting.

24. If the DOD puts planned cut backs into place, and 92,000 jobs are lost in metro Northern Virginia, does staff think that vacancies in existing Tysons, McLean and Reston offices will make it more difficult to attract businesses to Loudoun, where projects must be built from the ground up? Does Staff think it is a risk to stay in the contract with MWAA given the uncertainty in these cutbacks planned for December 2012? Does staff think there are other economic uncertainties that the board should consider, that could make staying in the Dulles Rail project a risk for the County?

As part of its analysis, RCLCO looked at the long-term trajectory of growth in the Washington metropolitan region. RCLCO acknowledges the focus on reducing or slowing the growth of federal spending, but believes lower growth in the short term would likely be compensated for by higher growth in the future, as the economy moves through multiple cycles.

In order to contain any risks associated with the issuance of debt, the credit rating agencies evaluate all purchasers for the level of risk associated with the issuance of bonds and determine the likelihood of default. Loudoun County would leverage its AAA standing to sell bonds at the lowest interest rate possible. The County would also use the Board-adopted fiscal policies when seeking to issue debt, thereby maintaining its credibility to the rating agencies.

25. Has Staff analyzed the difference in economic benefit to Loudoun County between rail stopping at Rte 28/Dulles Airport and coming all the way to Rte 772? What is that difference? Does Staff agree with the Lesser Report that the difference is approximately $50M (before taking into account capital costs, debt service, operational costs, maintenance costs, and other costs)? (See page 41 of the Lesser Report)

Pages 53 through 63 of RCLCO’s April 2012 report address the fiscal impact analysis. This analysis forecasted the amount and timing of development in the areas around the proposed rail stations and countywide through 2040, with Phase 2 metrorail to Loudoun and also with Phase 1 metrorail only. It also provided the fiscal impact (revenues minus county operating expenditures) for these areas. Capital costs and Phase 2 extension operating costs were not reflected. As shown on page 54, the Route 772 station is forecast to have the largest positive fiscal impact. Without adjusting for inflation, its fiscal impact would be $270 million, as compared to $98 million for Route 28 and $57 million for Route 606. When considering development in the station areas only, the net positive fiscal impact for all three stations combined is then $425.5 million without inflation, and $641.8 million with inflation.

Since with the Phase 2 extension development in the station areas includes some development that otherwise would have occurred in Loudoun County but now would be concentrated near the Metrorail stations, the net positive impact for the county as a whole is smaller than for the three station areas: $269.5 million without inflation and $386 million with inflation.

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The RCLCO report did not examine a scenario where the Phase 2 extension ended at either Route 28 or Dulles airport. With less opportunity to develop in Loudoun, future growth could be

distributed differently between the metro stations that would remain in Fairfax County. If the 606 and 772 stations were not built, there would be much less land near a metro station in Loudoun County, and no land adjacent to a station available for development. At Route 28, the Dulles World project is the main area within Loudoun County available for development, although only 15% of its land area is within ½ mile of the station. The maximum capacity to develop office space at Dulles World, once metrorail arrives at the Route 28 station, is 3.3 million square feet.

26. Does Staff agree with Lesser that metro will cause a shifting of commercial uses to the metro line, not a dramatic increase of economic development? (See page 4 of the Lesser Report).

Pages 5 and 6 of RCLCO’s April 2012 report summarize the expected changes to commercial development countywide and in the areas around the metrostations, resulting from the Phase 2 extension. Generally, between 6 and 9% more commercial development is forecasted with Phase 2, which translates to 1.4 million square feet of office, 670,000 square feet of retail, and 294 hotel rooms. The exception is flex/industrial development, a low rise style of commercial development that encompasses warehouses and other uses that occupy similar buildings – Phase 2 is not expected to change the amount of flex/industrial development.

The net positive fiscal impact forecasted countywide with the Phase 2 extension results both from capturing additional development that otherwise not occur in Loudoun, and from the shift of some commercial development to close to the metro stations, where real property values are forecast to be higher.

RCLCO’s analysis reflects available evidence in the research literature: in their view, rail investment is not shown as increasing the overall amount of development in a region, but can change the location of development. As RCLCO notes on page 13, “This is in part because it is very difficult for any researcher to establish how a region would have developed with different infrastructure than what it has.”

27. What does staff see as the Risks of the Dulles Rail project? Financial, etc? Does staff see any risk that the Federal Court may find MWAA may not raise tolls to pay for metro expansion? that the tolls are a tax? If MWAA defaults on its bonds, will Loudoun County be a default guarantor?

The answers below correspond to the responses provided to Supervisor Higgins’ questions 10, 12, 14 and 17. (10) Loudoun County makes no legal or moral obligation that backs the MWAA bonds. Those bonds are supported by the toll revenues, and staff’s understanding is that MWAA

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would be obligated to increase the tolls to raise sufficient revenue to service its debt. The inquiry, of course, is how the elastic demand will be if tolls are increased to certain levels, and whether there is a point beyond which toll increases will decrease demand such that there is no additional revenue. Other than tolls, staff is uncertain whether MWAA has made a legal or moral commitment to pay the debt service from other funds available to it in the event that toll revenues are insufficient. Certainly, MWAA will want to avoid a default, as it may impact its ability to borrow for other purposes.

(12) If MWAA is barred from imposing tolls for the improvements, the project cannot proceed under the current financing plan. Loudoun would be responsible only for any financings it has issued to fund its 4.8% of the capital costs. The first financing for Loudoun is estimated to occur in FY 2013 at an amount of $40 million.

(14) No.

(17) Loudoun would have no obligation for any of the capital costs for the Silver Line. With respect to the question of operating subsidies if the line is extended to the airport without Loudoun’s participation, the County Attorney is providing a discussion in a separate memorandum.

28. Has Staff looked at the Reston Association analysis of projected toll revenues? prepared by Terry Maynard? Does staff have an opinion on the projected revenues?

When the final version of the toll rate study is delivered, staff will evaluate the information based on its merits. Additionally, staff will work with the County’s Financial Advisor to best interpret and analyze the information presented in the report.

29. Has Staff made any analysis to compare the costs and benefits of bus service vs. rail?

Over the last four decades, the transportation needs of the Dulles Corridor and potential improvements have been the subject of several studies conducted by public agencies and private entities. Most of these studies identified mass transit alternatives as the best transportation solution for the corridor. The draft EIS statement compared the cost and benefits of a No Build Alternative, a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Alternative and a Rail Alternative. The major findings of the Draft EIS found that BRT would be faster to implement and less expensive to construct than Metrorail but would serve fewer people less effectively. The following additional findings are from the EIS:

 BRT would not support land development patterns in Tysons Corner as well as Metrorail, Combined BRT/Metrorail, or Phased Implementation, and would not penetrate Tysons Corner to effectively serve its workers, shoppers, and residents.  BRT would be less expensive to construct than choices involving Metrorail service.  BRT would provide less overall passenger capacity than Metrorail. Page 13 of 14

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 BRT would not provide the same level of accessibility for minority and low income populations to regional job choices as Metrorail.  Metrorail would provide the best opportunity to capture previous investment made in regional infrastructure.  Metrorail service would generally result in the shortest travel time, especially for reverse commute trips and those that begin and end in Tysons Corner.  Metrorail would provide a seamless “single-seat” link between Dulles Airport and the region’s core, and provide facilities commensurate to the status of this international airport.  Metrorail service would provide a much greater increase in the capacity to move people through the corridor than either BRT or Combined BRT/Metrorail.  Metrorail would have higher growth potential in station areas along the corridor due to planned increases in allowable densities at rail stations, and would better contribute to the objectives of adopted county master plans.

(Source: Dulles Corridor Rapid Transit Project, p. S-9 & S-10, Ref # 5, http://www.dullesmetro.com/pdfs/FEIS_I/FTA_FEIS_ES_vol1_final.pdf)

30. Has Staff made any analysis to compare building transit centers for buses, limos, taxis instead of the metro stations at 606 and 772?

The alternatives considered are as identified in the response to question 29.

31. Has Staff considered the revenue from parking garages that may be built to support rail station patrons (or could be built to support bus service)? What would the revenue be?

As shown in the table below, DESMAN forecasted potential revenues generated by the parking demand and how those revenues could change due to increases in the price of parking

(Alternatives 1 and 2) and other economic factors (Base Case Adjusted) as part of the analysis for the Metrorail Parking Demand Study. Table 16 below has been extracted from the DESMAN report (page 18) for to illustrate what the potential revenue could be for the parking garages. {Note that these are gross revenues and that, as yet, no expenditure estimates have been developed for potential future parking garages}

Table 16 ‐ Illustrative Annual Revenue Generation (000’s) Scenario 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Base Case Adjusted $5,226 $6,174 $8,203 $11,634 $15,210 $21,108 Alternative 1 ‐3% $5,226 $5,802 $6,600 $8,009 $8,964 $10,641 Alternative 2 ‐15% $5,226 $7,198 $13,992 $28,968 $54,946 $110,639

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Delgaudio Question #1, 3/5/12 The following tables show data for areas within one, three, and five miles of at least one of the following proposed metro rail stations: Route 772, Route 606, Dulles Airport, and Route 28. Data are only representative of areas within Loudoun County.

A map follows that shows the areas within one, three, and five miles of the proposed stations. The buffered areas encircling each station sometimes overlap, but population and employment is not double counted in these instances.

Total Population 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 7,627 9,174 12,422 16,110 18,503 20,577 22,324 3 Mile Radius 13,103 23,755 35,953 43,870 48,204 51,345 53,706 5 Mile Radius 152,293 176,557 201,631 219,027 226,173 230,995 234,271 County 312,311 352,695 395,923 435,869 457,258 470,881 480,525 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Population Per Square Mile 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 775 933 1,263 1,638 1,881 2,092 2,269 3 Mile Radius 284 515 779 951 1,044 1,113 1,164 5 Mile Radius 1,663 1,928 2,202 2,392 2,470 2,522 2,558 County 601 678 761 838 879 906 924 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Total Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 6,367 7,441 13,302 18,025 21,452 23,369 26,480 3 Mile Radius 61,457 69,266 84,289 95,434 104,333 109,800 116,071 5 Mile Radius 98,727 114,017 142,575 164,011 179,296 189,722 200,276 County 143,738 167,565 206,465 236,344 257,212 271,487 285,449 Sources: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Employment Per Square Mile 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 647 756 1,352 1,832 2,181 2,375 2,692 3 Mile Radius 1,332 1,501 1,826 2,068 2,261 2,379 2,515 5 Mile Radius 1,078 1,245 1,557 1,791 1,958 2,072 2,187 County 276 322 397 455 495 522 549 Sources: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services, April 24, 2012. Proposed Metrorail Stations Loudoun County

Leesburg LANSDOWNE

BELMONT 7 UNIVERSITY CENTER COUNTRYSIDE

LOWES 267 ISLAND CASCADES

DULLES SUGARLAND TOWN RUN ASHBURN CENTER

BROADLANDS Fairfax County 659 28 RT 772 STERLING MOOREFIELD STATION RT 606

LOUDOUN OAK GROVE BRAMBLETON VALLEY 606 ESTATES

RT 28

DULLES AIRPORT Washington Dulles Legend International Airport ARCOLA Proposed Metrorail Station Proposed Metrorail Track STONE RIDGE Incorporated Town 50 1-Mile Metro Station Buffer

SOUTH RIDING 3-Mile Metro Station Buffer 5-Mile Metro Station Buffer County

Loudoun County

Fairfax County

9 287

15 7 City of Fairfax 15 267 28

0 1 2 3 4 5 50 Miles 50 Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services, April 24, 2012, Map #2012-185. ROUTE 28 STATION The following tables show the population, employment, and densities of areas within one mile of the Route 28 rail station. Data only represents the area within Loudoun County.

Total Population 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 00005131,111 1,662 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Population Per Square Mile 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 0000163354529 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Total Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 155 155 1,147 2,171 2,759 3,245 3,782 Sources: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Employment Per Square Mile 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 49 49 365 691 878 1,033 1,204 Sources: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services, April 24, 2012. ROUTE 606 STATION The following tables show the population, employment, and densities of areas within one mile of the Route 606 rail station. All of this area is within the Ldn 65 noise contour and/or contains flood plain, existing commercial development, or commercially zoned areas. Therefore, residential development would not occur in this area. One person was shown in the 2010 Census as living in this area.

Total Population 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 1111111 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Population Per Square Mile 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 0000000 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Total Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 4,979 5,931 6,734 7,261 7,707 8,026 8,256 Sources: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Employment Per Square Mile 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 1,585 1,888 2,144 2,311 2,453 2,555 2,628 Sources: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services, April 24, 2012. ROUTE 772 STATION The following tables show the population, employment, and densities of areas within one mile of the Route 772 rail station.

Total Population 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 7,626 9,173 12,421 16,109 17,989 19,465 20,661 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Population Per Square Mile 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 2,427 2,920 3,954 5,128 5,726 6,196 6,576 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Total Employment 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 1,233 1,355 5,421 8,593 10,986 12,098 14,443 Sources: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Employment Per Square Mile 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 1 Mile Radius 392 431 1,725 2,735 3,497 3,851 4,597 Sources: Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services; Loudoun County submission, COG Round 8.1 Cooperative Forecasts, February 2012.

Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services, April 24, 2012. Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Introduction

In response to a request received from Loudoun County, transportation planners from the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG, whose transportation planners also serve as staff to the National Capital Regional Transportation Planning Board [TPB])1 have tabulated the 2007 Metrorail Passenger Survey data for Metrorail riders with a home address coded to a TPB Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) in Loudoun County. A total of 66,321 Metrorail riders completed and returned questionnaires in the spring 2007 survey. These respondents represented a total of 717,754 weekday Metrorail riders. Of the 66,321 completed questionnaires, 435 of them were coded to a home TAZ in Loudoun County. These Loudoun County survey respondents represented a total of 4,685 weekday riders or about 0.7% of Metrorail’s average weekday ridership in 2007. Between 2007 and 2011, Metrorail’s average weekday ridership has grown by 3.7% from 717,800 to 744,000 weekday riders.

The destinations of non-Loudoun County residents using Metrorail for a portion of their trip to workplaces and other destinations in Loudoun County could not be determined from the 2007 Metrorail Passenger Survey data because this survey only collected the home address of the rider, not the origin or destination address of the trip. Nonetheless, in Regional 2008 Bus Survey and 2009 Regional Air Passenger survey conducted by COG/TPB staff, approximately 470 transit users that used Metrorail for a portion of their transit trip to Dulles International Airport were identified.

Although not requested by Loudoun County staff, COG/TPB staff also tabulated data from the 2007 Metrorail Passenger Survey for Metrorail riders using the Shady Grove and Rockville stations. This was done to provide some current empirical data for comparison with projected ridership at planned Metrorail stations in Loudoun County. COG/TPB staff believes that there are many similarities between I-270 Corridor in Montgomery County where the western branch of the Red Line operates and the Dulles Corridor in Northern Virginia. Thus, information on the characteristics of the Metrorail riders currently using the Shady Grove and Rockville stations may be of some use in discussions regarding the planned Metrorail Silver Line in Loudoun County.

1 COG is the regional organization of the Washington area's major local governments and their governing officials. TPB is the federally-designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) for Washington, D.C. and surrounding areas of Maryland and Virginia, and directs the continuing comprehensive transportation planning process. Staff of COG serves as the staff of the TPB. Therefore, for purposes of this white paper, the planners who conducted the analysis are consistently referred to as “COG/TPB” staff.

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Metrorail Usage by Trip Purpose

Commuting between home and work (Home-Based Work trips) accounted for three quarters of the Metrorail trips made by Loudoun County residents in 2007, as seen in Table 1 below. Trips between home and locations other than the person’s regular place of employment (Home-Based Other trips) accounted for another 9% of the Metrorail usage by County residents. The remaining 17% of trips made by County residents on Metrorail were trips that neither began nor ended at home (Non-Home-Based trips).

Approximately 90% of the Home-Based Work (HBW) Metrorail trips by County residents were destined to Metrorail stations located either in the District of Columbia or Arlington County. The remaining 10% were to Metrorail stations in Prince George’s County, Montgomery County, the City of Alexandria, and Fairfax County.

About two-thirds of the Home-Based Other (HBO) Metrorail trips by County residents were for job-related business purposes and for travel to or from school. About 90% of these HBO Metrorail trips were to Metrorail stations located in the District of Columbia or Arlington County.

Two-thirds of the Non-Home-Based (NHB) Metrorail Trips by County residents were trips that began or ended at their regular work location and were mostly for job-related business purposes. Approximately 60% of these NHB Metrorail trips were between Metrorail stations located either in the District of Columbia or Arlington County.

Table 1

Metrorail Usage by Trip Purpose for Washington Region and Loudoun County Residents

Trip Purpose Metrorail Riders in the Loudoun County Washington Region Metrorail Riders

Number Percent Number Percent

Home-Based Work 488,900 68.0 3,500 74.8

Home-Based Other 107,400 15.0 400 8.6

Non-Home Based 121,500 17.0 800 16.6

Total 717,800 100.0 4,700 100.0

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Home Origins and Origin Stations of Loudoun County Metrorail Riders

Almost 85% of the Metrorail trips by Loudoun County residents are trips that begin or end at home and nearly 90% of these trips use a Metrorail station on the Virginia portion of the Metrorail Orange Line. Figure 1 depicts the approximate home locations and number of Loudoun County Metrorail riders who began or ended their trip at home. This figure also shows the Metrorail stations where these riders accessed the rail system.

The home locations of Loudoun County Metrorail riders as seen in the green circles on Figure 1 are spread throughout the entire county, but are most heavily concentrated in the Sterling, Countryside, and Cascades areas. Figure 2 provides a summary of weekday home-based Metrorail trips by Loudoun County residents for four large geographic sub- areas of the County. These geographic sub-areas are East of Rt. 28, Ashburn and Leesburg, South of the Dulles Greenway (Rt. 267), and Western Loudoun County.

Figure 1

Home-Based Origins and Origin Stations of Loudoun County Metrorail Riders

Figure 2 shows that 37% of the Loudoun County Metrorail riders reside East of Rt. 28, 27% reside in Ashburn and Leesburg, 27% also reside in the area south of the Dulles Greenway, and 8% reside in western Loudoun.

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Figure 2

Geographic Origins of Home-Based Metrorail Trips in Loudoun County

By far, the West Falls Church station is the most heavily used Metrorail station by Loudoun County residents for travel on Metrorail between their homes and other locations in the metropolitan region. Approximately 58% of the home-based Loudoun County Metrorail trips used the West Falls Church station. As shown in Table 2, the Vienna station was the second most heavily used by Loudoun County residents with 18% of Loudoun County riders going to that station from their homes.

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Table 2

Origin Stations Used by Loudoun County Residents for Home-Based Metrorail Trips

Home-Based Station Riders Percent Cumulative Percent West Falls Church 2,274 58.2 58.2 Vienna 713 18.2 76.4 East Falls Church 161 4.1 80.6 Rosslyn 153 3.9 84.5 Dunn Loring 123 3.2 87.6 Rockville 104 2.7 90.3 Union Station 55 1.4 91.7 All Other Stations 324 8.3 100.0 Total 3,907 100.0

Metrorail Station Access and Egress Modes

Nearly half of the County residents using Metrorail for trips that began or ended at their homes accessed the Metrorail system via “Other Bus Service”. It is assumed that these “Other Bus Service” Metrorail access trips were primarily on Loudoun County Transit buses because 90% of these “Other Bus Service” access trips were by Loudoun County residents accessing the rail system at the West Falls Church station, another 6% were at the Rosslyn station and the remainder were at stations near Loudoun County Transit stops in the District of Columbia and at the Pentagon in Arlington County.2

Thirty-four percent of the County residents who used Metrorail for their home-based trips accessed the system by driving and parking at a station. There were about 500 home- based park-and-ride access trips each to the Vienna and West Falls Church stations. Another 140 of these park-and-ride access trips were to the East Falls Church station and 80 were to the Dunn Loring station. Kiss-and-Ride drop-offs accounted for another 6% of the home-based access trips to the system by County Metrorail riders. The breakdown of all home-based access modes to Metrorail by County residents is shown in Table 3.

2 Approximately 15% of the Loudoun County survey respondents at the West Falls Church Metrorail station did not check a response for the mode of access question on the survey questionnaire. The most likely reason for this was that Loudoun County Transit was not a specific response option for this question. It is assumed here and in Table 3 that the Loudoun County survey respondents at the West Falls Church station who did not check a response for the mode of access question accessed the West Falls Church station via Loudoun County Transit buses.

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Table 3 Access Modes to Metrorail by Loudoun County Residents for Home-Based Metrorail Trips

Access Mode to Home Station – (Daily) HB Trips Percent Other Bus Service (Loudoun County Transit) 1,833 46.9 Drove a car and parked 1,319 33.8 Dropped off by someone 250 6.4 Metrobus 241 6.2 Commuter Rail 175 4.5 Rode with someone who parked and Other 88 2.2 TOTAL 3,907 100.0

At the other end of daily home-based Metrorail trips made by County residents, 90% walked to their destination after they exited Metrorail. The egress modes of the remaining 10% of these riders were equally divided between auto and transit modes.

Destinations of Loudoun County Metrorail Riders

About 90% percent of the home-based Metrorail trips made by Loudoun County residents were to and from Metrorail stations in the District of Columbia and Arlington County. Metro Center (451 HB trips), Farragut West (339 HB Trips), McPherson Square (274 HB Trips), L’Enfant Plaza (241 HB Trips), Rosslyn (221HB Trips), Ballston (181), and Crystal City (181 HB Trips) were the top 7 station destinations and accounted for about half of the home-based Metrorail trips by Loudoun County residents. Figure 3 shows the destination station by jurisdiction for all home-based Metrorail trips made by County residents.

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Figure 3

Destination Station of Loudoun County Metrorail Riders for Home-Based Trips

Fairfax County and Montgomery Cities* County 3% 2% City of Alexandria 3% Prince George's County 3%

Arlington County 24% District of Columbia 65%

*Cities of Fairfax and Falls Church

Daily Boardings at Outlying Metrorail Stations

Figure 4 shows average weekday Metrorail boardings at stations located near or beyond the Capital Beltway during the spring 2007 passenger survey period. This figure shows that Shady Grove, the terminal station at the end of the western branch of Metrorail’s Red Line in northern Montgomery County, had the highest number of daily boardings of the outlying Metrorail stations. This station had about 4,200 more boardings than the West Falls Church station and 1,500 more boardings than the Vienna station on the Orange Line. Shady Grove is located approximately 17 miles from Metro Center in the District of Columbia.

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Figure 4

Average Weekday Boardings at Metrorail Stations Located Near or Beyond the Capital Beltway

There were a total of 18,800 average weekday boardings at the Shady Grove and Rockville stations combined. Metrorail usage at these existing two stations may be informative to Loudoun County discussions regarding the planned Silver Line because they share some similarities to the proposed Route 606 and Route 772/Ryan Rd stations.

The I-270 Corridor in Montgomery County where the western branch of the Red Line operates and the Dulles Corridor in Northern Virginia are similar in many ways. Both of the corridors are located some distance from the regional core area, both are economically vibrant, and both are the choice location for many of the region’s fast growing high technology firms. Both have major freeways with high occupancy vehicle (HOV) facilities serving the corridor and have transit service to core area employment centers in the District of Columbia and Arlington County. In addition, just as the Bethesda, Medical Center, White Flint, and Twinbrook activity centers serve as major destinations for all types of trips in the I-270 corridor, Tysons Corner, Reston, and

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Herndon serve as major trip destinations in the Dulles Corridor. Thus, information on the characteristics of the Metrorail riders currently using the Shady Grove and Rockville stations may be of some use in discussions regarding the planned Metrorail Silver Line in Loudoun County.

Trip Purposes of Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations

Table 4 shows the trip purposes of Metrorail riders residing in geographic areas served by the Shady Grove and Rockville stations. These station areas include large geographic areas of northern Montgomery County and Frederick County, Maryland and a few areas in Carroll County, Maryland.

Table 4 Trip Purposes of Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations

Trip Purpose Shady Grove Station Area Rockville Station Area Metrorail Riders Metrorail Riders

Number Percent Number Percent

Home-Based Work 22,400 84.5 5,600 81.5

Home-Based Other 2,500 9.5 800 11.7

Non-Home Based 1,500 5.8 500 6.8

Total 26,400 100.0 6,900 100.0

In comparison to Loudoun County Metrorail riders, a greater proportion of the Metrorail trips by riders living in the Shady Grove and Rockville station areas were for HBW commuting purposes. The proportion of HBO trips was slightly more than for Loudoun County residents and the proportion of NHB Metrorail trips was less than half that of Loudoun County riders in 2007. The apparent reason for the lower proportion of NHB Metrorail trips was that, in comparison to Loudoun County riders, a smaller percentage of the Shady Grove and Rockville station area riders worked in the District of Columbia and Arlington, where most NHB Metrorail trips are made. In all, 93% of the Metrorail trips by riders living in the Shady Grove and Rockville station areas were for trips that began or ended at home.

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Home Origins and Destinations of Shady Grove Metrorail Riders

The home origins of 86% of the home-based access trips to the Shady Grove Metrorail station were located in Montgomery County. Another 10% of these home origins were in Frederick County, 3% were in Carroll County and the home origins of the remaining 1% were located in areas of West Virginia and other places.

Seventy-three percent of the Metrorail riders accessing the Shady Grove station from their homes were destined to Metrorail stations in the District of Columbia, 15% were to Metrorail stations in Montgomery County, and 8% were to Metrorail stations in Arlington County. Metrorail stations in the City of Alexandria, Prince George’s County, and Fairfax County were the destinations of the remaining 3% of these riders.

The distribution of home origins and destinations of Shady Grove Metrorail riders by jurisdiction is depicted in Figure 5.

Figure 5

Home Origins and Destinations for Shady Grove Metrorail Riders

Home Origins Destination Jurisdictions 2.7% 1.1% 3.3% 8.0% 9.9%

15.4%

73.2% 86.3%

Montgomery County Frederick County District of Columbia Montgomery County Carroll County Other Arlington County Other

Home Origins and Destinations of Rockville Metrorail Riders

The home origins of 91% of the home-based access trips to the Rockville Metrorail station were located in Montgomery County, 4% were in Frederick County, 2% were in West Virginia, and 2% were in Loudoun County. The Metrorail riders with home origins

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations in West Virginia and Loudoun County were commuters transferring from commuter rail to Metrorail at the Rockville station.

Seventy-three percent of the Metrorail riders accessing the Rockville station from their homes were destined to Metrorail stations in the District of Columbia, 21% were to Metrorail stations in Montgomery County, and 4% were to Metrorail stations in Arlington County. Metrorail stations in Prince George’s County, Fairfax County and the City of Alexandria were the destinations of the remaining 2% of these riders.

The distribution of home origins and destinations of Rockville Metrorail riders by jurisdiction is depicted in Figure 6.

Figure 6

Home Origins and Destinations for Rockville Metrorail Riders

Home Origins Destination Jurisdictions 2% 2% 4% 2% 3%2%

21%

73% 91%

Montgomery County District of Columbia Frederick County Montgomery County West Virginia Arlington County Loudoun County All Other All Other

Figures 5 and 6 show that 15% and 21% of the Shady Grove and Rockville Metrorail riders had destinations to other Red Line stations in Montgomery County, primarily at the Bethesda, Medical Center and White Flint station. The employment in these three stations totaled about 94,000 jobs in 2010. It is reasonable to assume that the Tysons Corner stations on the planned Silver Line would attract a higher proportion of trips from the outer stations on the Silver Line in 2020. Employment in the Tysons Corner area is projected to reach 116,000 jobs in 2020.

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Access Modes by Distance to Shady Grove Metrorail Station

Sixty percent of the riders using the Shady Grove Metrorail station for their home-based trips lived within 5 miles of the station. Another 24% lived between 5 and 10 miles of the station and 16% lived more than 10 miles away from the station as shown in Table 5.

Table 5

Access Mode for Home-Based Metrorail Trips by Distance to Shady Grove Station

Distance to Shady Grove Metrorail Station Mode of 25 Less 10 to 15 to Access to 1 to 3 3 to 5 5 to 10 Miles All than 1 15 25 Percent Station Miles Miles Miles or Distances mile Miles Miles to/from Home More Drove & Parked 433 3,088 4,900 3,173 657 1,008 732 13,991 57.5% Dropped Off 228 614 705 396 89 25 86 2,143 8.8% Bus 499 1,191 1,778 2,116 200 539 622 6,945 28.5% Commuter Rail ------Walk 990 25 86 ------1,101 4.5% Bicycle 78 15 19 28 9 ------149 0.6% All Modes 2,228 4,933 7,488 5,713 955 1,572 1,440 24,329 100.0% Percent 9.2% 20.3% 30.8% 23.5% 3.9% 6.5% 5.9% 100.0%

Two-thirds of the home-based access trips to the Shady Grove station were by auto, 58% by Metrorail riders who drove and parked at the station, another 9% who were dropped off or picked up at the there. Eighty percent of these auto access trips were from distances between 1 and 10 miles.

About 29% of the home-based access trips to the Shady Grove station were bus access trips. Seventy-three percent of these bus access trips were between 1 mile and 10 miles in length. Approximately 7% of the home-based bus access trips were less than 1 mile and 20% were 10 miles or longer.

Together, walk and bike modes accounted for 5% of the home-based access trips to the Shady Grove station. Ninety percent of these walk access and about half the bike access trips came from residences within 1 mile of the station.

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Access Modes by Distance to Rockville Metrorail Station

Eighty percent of the riders using the Rockville Metrorail station for their home-based trips lived within 5 miles of the station. Another 9% lived between 5 and 10 miles from the station, 3% lived between 10 and 25 miles of the station and almost 8% lived more than 25 miles from the station. The main reason for the high percentage of home-based access trips greater than 25 miles in length is that a MARC commuter rail station is located next to the Rockville Metrorail station and a number of commuters from Frederick County, Maryland, Loudoun County, Virginia and various communities in West Virginia take a MARC train on the Brunswick Line and transfer to Metrorail at the Rockville station.

Table 6 Access Mode for Home-Based Metrorail Trips by Distance to Rockville Station

Distance to Rockville Metrorail Station Daily Mode of 25 Less 10 to 15 to All Access to 1 to 3 3 to 5 5 to 10 Miles than 1 15 25 Distances Percent Station Miles Miles Miles or mile Miles Miles All to/from Home More Drove & Parked 334 1107 291274 53 0 28 2,087 33.7% Dropped Off 184 385 33 45 0 12 12 671 10.8% Bus 167 621 334 201 9 20 7 1,359 22.0% Commuter Rail 0 0 0 46 30 43 420 539 8.7% Walk 1314 154 7 ------1,47523.8% Bicycle 23 25 0 0 12 ------601.0% All Modes 2,022 2,292 665 566 104 75 467 6,191 100.0% Percent 32.7% 37.0% 10.7% 9.1% 1.7% 1.2% 7.5% 100.0%

About 45% of the home-based access trips to the Rockville Metrorail station were by auto, 34% by those who drove and parked at the station, another 11% who were dropped off or picked up at the there. Eighty-five percent of these auto access trips were less than 5 miles in length with more half of them between 1 and 3 miles.

About 22% of the home-based access trips to the Rockville station were bus access trips. Eight-three percent of these bus access trips were less than 5 miles and a little less than half of them were between 1 and 3 miles in length.

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Commuter rail accounted for 9% of the home-based access trips at the Rockville Metrorail station. Seventy-eight percent of these access trips were from distances more than 25 miles from the Rockville station. The destinations of 80% of the commuters transferring from MARC Brunswick Line trains to Metrorail at the Rockville station were to other Red Line stations from Grosvenor-Strathmore in Montgomery County to Friendship Heights in the District of Columbia.

Together, walk and bike modes accounted for one-quarter of the home-based access trips to the Rockville station. Eighty-nine percent of these walk access and about 38% of the bike access trips came from residences within 1 mile of the station.

Shady Grove and Rockville Metrorail Stations as Destination Stations

In addition to serving as the origin stations for home-based trips in northern Montgomery County and Frederick County, these stations also serve as destination stations for “reverse commute” and other purposes for home-based trips that begin at other Metrorail stations in the region. The Shady Grove station serves as the destination station for 2,015 of these types of trips and the Rockville station serves as the destination station for 1,837 of these trip types. Seventy-five percent of these trips were “reverse” commute trips and the other 25% were trips to and from school or trips for personal business, work-related business, and shopping purposes.

Thirty-nine percent of the Metrorail riders with the Shady Grove or Rockville station as the destination end of their home-based trip were from the District of Columbia, 32% were from Montgomery County, 19% were from Prince George’s County, 3% from Fairfax County, 3% from Arlington County, 1% were from Alexandria and 3% from other places.

The distribution of home origins for Metrorail trips where the Shady Grove or Rockville station serves as the destination end for home-based trips that originate at other Metrorail stations in the region is depicted in Figure 7.

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Figure 7

Home Origins of “Reverse Commute“and Other Home-Based Metrorail Trips with the Shady Grove or Rockville Station as the Destination Station

Arlington County 3% Fairfax County Other and Cities 4% 3%

District of Prince George's Columbia County 39% 19%

Montgomery County 32%

Summary

In response to a request received from Loudoun County, COG/TPB staff has tabulated data from the 2007 Metrorail Passenger Survey for Loudoun County residents. These tabulations showed that three quarters of the Metrorail trips by Loudoun County residents were for commuting purposes, that 90% of the home-based Metrorail trips by County residents were to the District of Columbia and Arlington County and that home origins are spread throughout the entire county, but are most heavily concentrated in the Sterling, Countryside, and Cascades areas. The West Falls Church and Vienna Metrorail stations are the stations most heavily used by County residents and it is estimated that nearly half of the County residents using Metrorail for trips that began or ended at their homes accessed the Metrorail system via Loudoun County Transit buses. Another third of the County residents using Metrorail for their home-based trips drove and parked at a rail station.

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations For comparison purposes, data from the 2007 survey for Metrorail riders using the Shady Grove and Rockville stations were also tabulated. Metrorail usage at these existing two stations could be informative because these stations share some similarities with potential Route 606 and Route 772/Ryan Rd Silver Line Metrorail stations in Loudoun County. The Shady Grove station, the terminal station at the end Metro’s Red Line in Northern Montgomery County, has the highest number of weekday boardings of all outside the beltway Metrorail Stations. Average weekday boardings at the Shady Grove and Rockville stations combined, totaled 18,800 riders per day in 2007.

These tabulations of the survey showed that 93% of the Metrorail trips by riders living in the Shady Grove and Rockville station areas were for trips that began or ended at home and that most of these trips were for commuting purposes. The home origins of 86% of the home-based access trips to the Shady Grove Metrorail station and 91% of these trips to the Rockville station were located in Montgomery County, MD. Seventy-three percent of the Metrorail riders with home-based access to the Shady Grove station and as well as 73% of these home-based riders at the Rockville station access were to stations in the District of Columbia. About 15% of the Shady Grove home-based access trips and about 21% of the Rockville home-based access trips were to other Red line stations in the corridor from Grosvenor to Bethesda.

In addition to serving as the origin stations for home-based trips in northern Montgomery County and Frederick County, these stations also serve as destination stations for “reverse commute” and other purposes for home-based trips. Thirty-nine percent of the Metrorail riders with the Shady Grove or Rockville station as the destination end of their home-based trip were from the District of Columbia, 32% were from Montgomery County, and 19% were from Prince George’s County.

Characteristics of Existing Metrorail Usage by Loudoun County Residents and Metrorail Riders at the Shady Grove and Rockville Stations Background and Methodology

The Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) periodically conducts surveys of riders on the regional Metrorail system. Survey questionnaires are distributed to a sample of riders as they enter a Metrorail station and data on the origin and destination stations of these riders, the purpose of their trips, the modes of transportation used to access and egress the Metrorail system, and type of fare paid is collected. In addition, the survey questionnaire asks for the rider’s jurisdiction of residence and home address. Data collected in these surveys are then checked, processed and weighted to represent average weekday Metrorail ridership totals.

Both WMATA and COG/TPB staff find the data collected in the WMATA rail passenger surveys useful for transportation planning and modeling purposes. Typically, after a rail passenger survey has been conducted, WMATA requests that COG/TPB staff code the home addresses collected in the survey to small area TPB TAZs and append these geographic TAZ identifiers to the individual survey data records.

The home address data collected in the rail survey are coded to TAZs using local street address databases and Geographical Information System (GIS) software. For addresses not coded by the GIS software, COG/TPB staff uses Google Maps, MapQuest and other resources to locate the home address and manually code it to the appropriate TAZ. Because not every survey respondent provides a complete home address, a computer algorithm is used to allocate blank and other non-geocodeable home addresses to TAZs. Partial street name (if one), residential zip code (if one), home Metrorail station, mode of access to home station, and reported jurisdiction of residence are used to determine the TAZ to which the non-geocodeable address is allocated. COG/TPB staff also identifies other important missing data items, such as destination station, and re-weights to survey data accordingly to account for these missing data items.

WMATA is about to conduct a 2012 Metrorail Passenger Survey. This survey will begin in mid-April and continue until mid-June. The initial processing of the survey will occur between mid-June and September. COG/TPB staff will then code the home address collected in that survey to small area TPB TAZs. This coding is scheduled to be completed by December 31, 2012 and upon completion, the information presented here for Loudoun County Metrorail riders could be updated with the new survey data.

WMATA Responses to Loudoun County Questions Raised at April 17, 2012 Work Session Submitted 4/25/2012

From Loudoun Supervisor Delgaudio

L16. What does WMATA project rail fares from Loudoun County to be to: Dulles Airport, Herndon, Reston, Tysons, Falls Church, Arlington County, DC, Alexandria, MD? Peak and off peak rates?

Passengers originating from all Loudoun stations reach the peak period max fare distance between Tysons Corner and East Falls Church during peak periods and hit off- peak max fare in Tysons Corner during off-peak periods. According to the proposed FY2013 fare, peak max fare is $5.75 and off-peak max fare is $3.50 for SmarTrip users. The table below shows peak and off-peak fares for Loudoun stations.

Peak Fare From\To Dulles Airport Herndon Wiehle- Tysons East/West All DC and MD Reston East Corner Falls Church Destinations Dulles Airport $ 2.10 $ 2.30 $ 3.05 $ 4.80 $ 5.75 $ 5.75 Route 606 $ 2.10 $ 3.00 $ 3.65 $ 5.40 $ 5.75 $ 5.75 Route 772 $ 2.55 $ 3.50 $ 4.20 $ 5.75 $ 5.75 $ 5.75 Off-Peak Fare From\To Dulles Airport Herndon Wiehle- Tysons East/West All DC and MD Reston East Corner Falls Church Destinations

Dulles Airport $ 1.70 $ 1.85 $ 2.05 $ 3.50 $ 3.50 $ 3.50 Route 606 $ 1.70 $ 2.05 $ 2.75 $ 3.50 $ 3.50 $ 3.50 Route 772 $ 2.05 $ 2.75 $ 3.25 $ 3.50 $ 3.50 $ 3.50

Note: Fare matrix based on proposed FY2013 Fare.

L17. What does WMATA project for operating and maintenance costs for Silver Line in Loudoun County? What has WMATA projected for Fairfax County and Arlington County for these costs? and how accurate have WMATA's projection of costs been? What federal subsidy does WMATA predict will be required in addition to the required contributions of its funding partners, i.e., Loudoun, Fairfax, etc?

WMATA prepared operating and maintenance (O&M) cost projections as part of its contribution to the region’s Constrained Long Range Plan in 2010. This cost model was updated to reflect recent budget figures. WMATA projects that Loudoun County will be responsible for $13.8 million in operating subsidy in FY2025, while Fairfax County is projected to be responsible for $57.6 million in total (system-wide) subsidy, and Arlington

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County for $28.9 million. A year-by-year breakdown of the projections is shown in Attachment A: Metrorail Operating Cost Projections.

The federal government does not provide direct subsidy for WMATA operating costs, and at this time WMATA does not anticipate any such subsidy will be available in the future.

L18. Does WMATA expect Loudoun County to contribute anything to the existing projected $13.3 billion capital replacement costs of existing 103 mile Metrorail system? What are the projected contributions for maintenance (not ordinary operations) over the next 5 years, ten years, 20 years? What federal subsidy does WMATA predict will be required in addition to the required contributions of its funding partners, i.e. Loudoun, Fairfax, etc.

All WMATA Compact jurisdictions enter into an agreement to pay for both capital and operating costs for the Metrorail system as a whole, subject to the allocation formula. The capital needs inventory identified $13.3 billion in capital needs, which includes not only replacement and rehabilitation of assets, but also investments to meet demand and to improve the customer experience. These needs will be addressed by WMATA’s 6- year capital program on a rolling basis, subject to funding availability.

Using the same model described above in the response to Question L17, WMATA projects that Loudoun County’s portion of the capital subsidy will be roughly $7.7 million in FY2025. A year-by-year breakdown of the projections is shown in Attachment B: Metrorail Capital Improvement Program Projections.

Currently, the federal government provides over $250 million per year in federal formula grant funds. In addition, the federal government is authorized to contribute $150 million per year to WMATA from FY2011-FY2020 under the Passenger Rail Investment and Improvement Act of 2008 (PRIIA), subject to annual appropriation. This amount is matched dollar for dollar by the WMATA Compact jurisdictions, providing a total of $300 million annually for critical investments.

In the 2010 CLRP Financial Plan, developed by MWCOG/TPB, the funding jurisdictions did not guarantee that the PRIIA funding will continue beyond 2020. This projected shortfall is shown in Attachment B with an annual projection of $333 million in unfunded projects in FY2025. Alternate funding sources will have to be identified, or WMATA’s capital program will need to be reduced and reprioritized, subject to the WMATA Capital Funding Agreement.

L19. Why does WMATA need a maintenance facility for 184 rail cars at Dulles when only 128 rail cars will be for Silver Line? Will WMATA fund the facility costs for the 100+ cars to be used elsewhere?

The Silver Line will require a total of 208 railcars for peak operations in FY2018 at 50% 8-car trains and will reach a peak fleet of 240 cars by FY2020 when Metro operates 100% 8-car trains. In either case, the fleet requirement for Silver Line exceeds the designed storage capacity at the Dulles Airport.

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The Dulles project will only procure 128 rail cars because some of the existing rail cars operating on other lines will be diverted to operate on the Silver Line. The 2004 FEIS operating plan made the assumption that the existing system will lower fleet requirements by reducing frequency and trains on existing lines, resulting in a net savings of new cars to be purchased for Silver Line. Silver Line gets the benefit of this diversion of trains and not having to procure a new fleet for the entire Silver Line service.

However most of the re-allocated railcars are not currently stored on yards along the Orange Line. It is inefficient and costly for Silver Line to run railcars out of yards inaccessible to Orange Line and Silver Line tracks. In the meantime, the Orange Line yards at New Carrollton and West Falls Church, even with expansion, will max out storage capacity at the Phase I opening.

Building the right amount of railcar storage and maintenance spaces would allow efficient operations on Silver Line and dedicated maintenance facilities. In the FEIS, the size of the rail yard was determined to have a storage capacity for 250 rail cars total to include room for the entire projected need with 100% 8-car trains. As part of the negotiated agreement with Secretary LaHood, the size of the rail yard to be constructed as part of Dulles Phase 2 was reduced to a capacity of 168 rail cars, with the future expansion capability to 224 cars.

L20. Will WMATA agree to set fares for Silver Line at or above equivalent costs for driving on Dulles Toll Road? If tolls on DTR are $6 each way, rail fare for similar journey must be at least $6 each way?

At today’s pricing, the rail fare for many trips originating at future Loudoun stations would be close to $6. Based on the proposed FY2013 fare structure, passengers from Loudoun stations will hit max peak rail fare of $5.75 between Tysons Corner and East Falls Church on their inbound trips. By FY2018, Metrorail fares may increase by another 10%, depending on Board action, to account for inflation. Additionally, some riders will pay for parking at their origin station.

Fixing the rail fare on the Silver Line would impact the structure of distance-based Metrorail fare. Any changes to Metrorail fare will be subject to WMATA Board approval and compact agreement.

L21. Will WMATA agree to have its riders pay for at least 25% of total capital costs of Dulles Rail by setting a surcharge on all Metrorail fares for next 30 years?

The WMATA Board does not use fare surcharges for the purpose of major system expansion, such as building a rail extension. Since 2000, the Metro Board policy has been that all engineering and constructions costs for extensions to the Metro system beyond the original 103 mile system are to be funded by the jurisdiction(s) in which the extension is located.

From Loudoun Supervisor Higgins

L9. What if any assurance do you have that the mandatory annual Metro assessment to Loudoun would be steady and not be revised to increase Loudoun’s proportional share? Page | 3

Metrorail’s system operating and capital costs will likely grow each year as a result of inflation; therefore jurisdictions will increase the amount of subsidy contribution based on individual percentage share in the subsidy allocation formula. Fluctuations in ridership levels can impact the amount of fare revenue collected and affect the amount of jurisdictional contribution needed to support the operating program.

Additionally, individual jurisdiction’s percentage share could change every year, though very minor. As explained in Questions W8 and W13, any changes or updates to the subsidy allocation factors, including update on census data on population in urbanized area, ridership growth by jurisdiction and changes to the maximum fare structure could increase or decrease jurisdictional share of the system subsidy allocation.

L11. Do you know of any provision for how WMATA intends to address the $13.3 Billion in deferred maintenance?

The ten-year Capital Needs Inventory (CNI) identified $13.3 billion in capital needs, which includes not only replacement and rehabilitation of assets, but also investments to meet demand and to improve the customer experience. These needs will be addressed by WMATA’s 6-year capital program on a rolling basis, subject to funding availability.

Page VI-9 of the WMATA Fiscal Year 2013 Proposed Annual Budget shows the breakdown of investments that are currently forecasted to be spent in the FY2011- FY2018 CIP totaling $6.6 Billion in expected CIP funds.1 If current funding levels continue in FY19 and FY20, the total CIP for FY11 through FY20 would total $8.2 Billion, leaving roughly $5.1 Billion in unfunded capital needs.

WMATA will continue to work with local funding jurisdictions and the Federal government to collaborate and identify potential sources to fully fund Metro’s capital improvement needs.

Other Questions/Requests Raised at Hearing

W1. Provide capital and operating cost info for every year between 2018 and 2025

Attachments A and B: Metrorail Operating and Capital Cost Projections, provide year-by -year breakdown of system operating and capital costs and Loudoun County contributions.

1 The existing Capital Funding Agreement funds approximately $5 million in capital investment for the period FY2011 – FY2016. Page | 4

W2. Provide distribution of employees by jurisdiction—DC, MD and VA

As of FY2012, the jurisdiction of residence of Metro’s 11,116 employees is:

o 8,004 MD (72%) o 1,667 VA (15%) o 1,445 DC (13%)

W3. Current number and percent ridership from Loudoun

The 2007 Metrorail passenger survey showed that 0.65% of the Metrorail trips were made by Loudoun County residents. At today’s average weekday ridership of 750,000 trips, it is estimated that there are 4,900 daily trips made by Loudoun County residents.

W4. Clarification of how we handle/manage capacity issue at Rosslyn tunnel

There are two parts to capacity at Rosslyn- portal capacity and train capacity:

1) Portal capacity. The Silver Line operating plan maintains the Rosslyn portal capacity at 26 trains per hour per direction. This operating plan reduces the train frequency on the Orange Line from 16 to 14 trains per hour and on the Blue Line from 10 to 4 trains per hour in the peak direction, so that Rosslyn tunnel can operate 8 Sliver Line trains at 7-minute headways in the peak hour and peak direction. The total number of trains through Rosslyn will still be 26 trains in each direction, but 22 trains will come from the combined Orange/Silver Lines and only 4 trains from the Blue Line. This June, as part of the Rush+ service realignment, Metro will begin shifting the balance of trains at Rosslyn by converting some Blue Line trains into Yellow Line trains and increasing the train capacity crossing the Potomac River. This realignment will begin the transition to the Silver Line operating plan.

2) Train capacity. Metro will reach 50% 8-car trains around FY2015, an increase from the current 33% 8-car trains on the Orange Line in the rush hours. The increase in Orange/Silver trains and the additional 8-car trains will increase the peak-directional train capacity between East Falls Church and Rosslyn by 40%. Additionally, Metro expects to operate 100% 8-car trains on all lines starting in FY2020, which will increase train capacity at Rosslyn tunnel by another 17%.

Metrorail future peak hour ridership forecasts with the Silver Line in operation show that there will be sufficient capacity in place to handle the anticipated growth in new peak hour trips.

W5. Why has rail ridership been relatively flat in recent years?

Historically, Metrorail ridership has shown steady growth since service started in 1976. Over the past 35 years, Metrorail’s average daily ridership went from 103,000 daily boardings in 1977 to 750,000 daily boardings today. System expansion and station area development have been and remain the driving forces behind Metro ridership growth.

In the decade prior to the 2008 recession, daily ridership consistently grew at an annual rate of 3%. Since then, ridership has remained relatively flat at 750,000 daily trips due to the impact of current economic conditions. It is anticipated that ridership growth will Page | 5

resume once the regional and national economies recover, though at a slower rate than previously.

W6. If Loudoun opts out, Loudoun will not pay even for the Airport station—this issue will have to be resolved at/by NVTC with no cost to Loudoun

This issue is addressed by Virginia and NVTC

W7. What is not funded in our capital program between the $13 billion needs number and the $5 billion capital program?

The ten-year CNI includes not only replacement and rehabilitation of assets to achieve a state of good repair, but also investments to meet future demand and improve the customer experience on the system.

Between FY2011 and FY2018, WMATA’s Capital Improvement Program (CIP) will fund approximately $6.6 billion of the $13.3 billion FY2011-FY2020 capital needs inventory (CNI). The rolling 6-year CIP ensures that necessary capital needs are addressed over time within available funding levels agreed upon by WMATA Compact jurisdictions.

Page VI-9 of the WMATA Fiscal Year 2013 Proposed Annual Budget shows the breakdown of investments that are currently unfunded in the FY2011-FY2018 CIP.

W8. How can Loudoun County’s contribution be capped?

Per WMATA Compact Agreement, Loudoun County’s contribution cannot be capped for system operating and capital costs. First, cost inflation for labor and materials will increase the total subsidy amount for compact jurisdictions. Second, fluctuations in ridership levels can impact the amount of fare revenue collected and affect the amount of jurisdictional contribution needed to support the operating program. Finally, a jurisdiction’s percentage share of the rail system subsidy is allocated based on a formula, which considers ridership by jurisdiction, station locations, population in urbanized area, and maximum fare subsidy. Any change in these factors will alter the jurisdiction’s share and amount of subsidy.

W9. What are the performance standards we use for our capital program?

WMATA’s Capital Improvement Program (CIP) is a rolling six-year program derived from ten-year Capital Needs Inventory. During the annual budget development process, Metro engages internal operating and capital units and jurisdictions in project prioritization and programming and seeks input from the general public through public hearings. In the course of capital program implementation, WMATA conducts quarterly tracking on CIP projects and publishes reports on the project status. The Board of Directors is briefed quarterly on progress and expenditures on the capital program.

Per the terms of the Capital Funding Agreement, WMATA reports quarterly on project scope, cost, and schedule changes; the status of contracts necessary for the implementation of capital projects, the status of year-to-date expenditures relative to budget and the Annual Work Plan; the status of all cash and debt sources relative to the budget and the Annual Work Plan; updated cash flow projections and program cash

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requirements, and a comparison of billed amounts to amounts actually paid out for the preceding quarter.

WMATA measures and reports on its progress to meet output targets aimed at reducing the backlog of system needs and achieving a steady state of repair. Project delivery is measured and reported based on adherence to schedule, scope, and budget.

W10. Projected ridership by each station for Phase 1 and Phase 2

The 2004 Dulles Corridor Metrorail Extension FEIS contains forecasts of daily transit use and boardings at the Silver Line stations (see FEIS Tables 6.1-3 and 6.1-4). The FEIS projected that Phase I of the Silver Line would generate 24,600 daily boardings by FY2011 (original opening year) and Phase II would generate 52,600 by FY 2015 (original opening year). Such projections include new riders generated by the Silver Line as well as current riders who would switch from Orange Line to Silver Line.

FEIS Table 6.1-4, Daily Station Boardings Dulles FEIS Forecasts Station Phase 1 LPA Full Build

Year 2011 2015 2025* Tysons East 3,800 4,100 4,100 Tysons Central RT123 5,200 5,600 6,100 Tysons Central RT7 3,300 3,600 3,800 Tysons West 4,000 4,300 4,600 Wiehle Ave 8,200 6,200 6,500 Reston Parkway 4,900 4,700 Herndon/Monroe 7,600 8,800 Route 28 1,000 1,200 Dulles Airport 5,000 6,200 Route 606 4,200 4,500 Route 772/DGWay 6,100 7,000

Dulles Subtotal 24,500 52,600 57,500

It needs to be recognized that the recent economic downturn could potentially slow down the pace of development anticipated for opening years of both phases. When Phase I opens in FY2014, the opening year ridership is likely to reach the 24,500 daily trip for the new stations. For FY2018, the recent Round 8.0 land use forecasts provided by Loudoun County lowered job and population growth, therefore Phase II ridership could be potentially less than the FEIS forecasts.

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W11. Explain how ridership projections have been developed and respond to concerns about old O-D study being used for projections.

Metrorail ridership forecasts are based on the Metropolitan Washington Council of Government (MWCOG) regional travel demand forecasting process, which takes into account employment and population projections developed by jurisdictions including Loudoun County. The 2004 FEIS ridership is based on Round 6.3 land use forecasts done in (put year) WMATA is in the process of developing updated ridership forecasts using Round 8.0 cooperative land use forecasts and the Version 2.2 regional travel forecasting model. As noted above, it is anticipated that the effect of the recession will be to “push out” ridership growth by a few years, but is not expected to dampen the overall long-term growth of system ridership significantly.

Metro conducts a Metrorail passenger survey every five years which asks about ridership by jurisdiction of residence, origin and destination stations, trip purpose and mode of access. This survey data is only used to validate the regional forecasting model, but not directly applied to produce ridership forecasts. The information on the share of ridership by each jurisdiction is also an input to the subsidy allocation formula.

W12. Provide sample fares and travel times for various trip interchanges to and from the Loudoun stations—such as to Tysons, Arlington, Metro Center.

See response to L16 above on possible fares based on proposed FY2013 fares

Sample travel times were provided in Table 6.1-7 of the FEIS. For example,

Dulles Airport to Tysons Corner 19 minutes Dulles Airport to Rosslyn 43 minutes Route 606 to Tysons Corner 22 minutes Route 606 to Metro Center 60 minutes

W13. Want better understanding of the how the max fare works.

The rail subsidy allocation formula consists of two components: the maximum fare component and the base rail component. The allocation formula is explained in the subsidy section of the WMATA Fiscal Year 2012 Approved Annual Budget, pages III-10 and III-11.

The purpose of the maximum fare subsidy is to reduce the burden on passengers making longer trips and allocates some of the costs to those jurisdictions that benefit from longer distance Metrorail ridership. The maximum fare subsidy consists of “taper” and “cap” features of the distance-base fare structure. The “taper” reduces cost per mile for trips greater than six miles, and the “cap” keeps the same fare at a threshold distance, which will be 15.6 miles for SmarTrip users in FY2013.

The jurisdictions are allocated one-half the calculated max fare subsidy, based on the percent of riders from the individual jurisdiction who benefit from the taper and cap. These percentages are calculated from the data provided by the Metrorail Passenger Survey. The remaining half of the maximum fare subsidy is incorporated into the rail

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base subsidy. Accordingly, the max fare has a smaller impact than the base rail components in the subsidy allocation process.

W14. Salary of bus and rail operators—starting and maximum and years it takes to progress from starting to max as per CBA

Currently, Bus and Rail operators earn a minimum of $35,497 and a maximum of $59,120. This is base pay and does not include any overtime. It would take an employee 6 years to reach the max salary.

Attachment A: Metrorail Operating Cost Projections Silver Line Phase 2 Extension Metrorail Operating Cost Projection for FY2018-FY2025

(in millions, YOE$)

FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025

Metrorail Total Expenditures $ 1,173 $ 1,214 $ 1,375 $ 1,407 $ 1,439 $ 1,472 $ 1,506 $ 1,528 Existing System (106.3 Mi.) Expenses $ 1,063 $ 1,101 $ 1,259 $ 1,287 $ 1,315 $ 1,345 $ 1,375 $ 1,393 Silver Line Expenses $ 110 $ 113 $ 117 $ 120 $ 124 $ 128 $ 131 $ 135

Revenues/ Prev. Maint. $ 904 $ 935 $ 1,073 $ 1,097 $ 1,123 $ 1,148 $ 1,175 $ 1,192 System Cost Recovery 77% 77% 78% 78% 78% 78% 78% 78%

Net Local Subsidy $ 270 $ 279 $ 303 $ 310 $ 317 $ 324 $ 331 $ 336

Subsidy Allocation Loudoun County $ 11.1 $ 11.4 $ 12.4 $ 12.7 $ 13.0 $ 13.3 $ 13.6 $ 13.8 (Percentage) 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%

Fairfax County $ 46.2 $ 47.8 $ 51.8 $ 53.0 $ 54.2 $ 55.5 $ 56.7 $ 57.6 (Percentage) 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1%

Arlington County $ 23.2 $ 24.0 $ 26.0 $ 26.6 $ 27.2 $ 27.9 $ 28.5 $ 28.9 (Percentage) 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6%

Note: 1) Phase 2 LPA: Silver Line full LPA to Rt. 772 in Loudoun County

Assumptions 1) Silver Line Phase 1 includes 5 stations and 11.6 miles of track. Phase 2 LPA adds 6 stations and 11.5 miles of track. 2) Expense estimates based on CLRP cost model adjusted to FY13 Proposed Budget. FY13-18 figures from FY13 Proposed Budget 3) Base cost inflation at 3% per year from FY13 to FY15; 3.8% per year from FY15 to FY20 and 2.1% from FY21-25 4) Phase 2 expenses and revenue service begin in FY18 5) Rail service expansion includes 128 expansion Dulles rail cars and expansion to 100% 8-car trains in FY2020. Rail car miles increase proportionally to fleet size

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6) Operating revenues include passenger fare revenue, non-passenger revenue including parking and advertising, and capital payment for preventive maintenance 7) Operating cost recovery assumed at 77% for FY18-19 and 78% for FY20-25 8) Max fare subsidy allocation based on proposed FY2013 fare structure 9) Revenue for FY18 and FY25 based on FY2013 average fare plus 10% increase by FY18 and 15% fare increase between FY18 and FY25

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Attachment B: Metrorail Capital Improvement Program Projections Silver Line Phase 2 Extension Metrorail Capital Cost Projection for FY2018-FY2025 (from 2010 CLRP)

(in millions, YOE$) FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025 Metrorail Total Expenditures $ 798 $ 889 $ 911 $ 930 $ 950 $ 970 $ 990 $ 1,011 Existing System (106.3 Mi.) Expenses $ 798 $ 889 $ 911 $ 894 $ 914 $ 934 $ 919 $ 939 Silver Line Expenses $ - $ - $ - $ 36 $ 36 $ 36 $ 71 $ 71

Revenues (Excluding Local Subsidy) $ 619 $ 653 $ 670 $ 378 $ 386 $ 394 $ 402 $ 411

Net Local Subsidy $ 179 $ 236 $ 241 $ 246 $ 251 $ 256 $ 262 $ 267

Deficit (Unfunded) $ 306 $ 313 $ 319 $ 326 $ 333

Subsidy Allocation Loudoun County $ 5.1 $ 6.8 $ 6.9 $ 7.1 $ 7.2 $ 7.4 $ 7.5 $ 7.7 (Percentage) 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%

Fairfax County $ 21.4 $ 28.3 $ 28.8 $ 29.4 $ 30.1 $ 30.7 $ 31.3 $ 32.0 (Percentage) 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%

Arlington County $ 10.8 $ 14.2 $ 14.5 $ 14.8 $ 15.1 $ 15.4 $ 15.7 $ 16.1 (Percentage) 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%

Note: 1) Phase 2 LPA: Silver Line full LPA to Rt. 772 in Loudoun County

Assumptions 1) Same assumptions as listed from (1) through (5) under Operating Cost Projection (Page 1) 2) Capital revenues include federal grants, federal dedicated funding, local match to federal grants, local system performance funds, local match to federal dedicated funding, debt strategy, and other funds 3) Net local capital subsidy includes local match to federal formula grants and system performance funds. Does not include local match to federal dedicated (PRIIA) funding. Subsidy allocation based on rail operating subsidy formula and assuming that rail assets are 70% of the capital program, includes share of local match to federal grants and system performance funds (See page VI-7 of WMATA FY2013 Proposed Annual Budget) 4) Capital rehabilitation/replacement of Dulles capital items begins in FY20 5) Starting in FY2021, there is a gap in identified capital funding due to lack of federal dedicated funding (no assumption for continuation/replacement of PRIIA funding). CLRP did not solve this gap. The projected deficit is $333 million for FY25

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COUNTY OF LOUDOUN, VIRGINIA

TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM

DATE: April 26, 2012 TO: Board of Supervisors FROM: Andrew Beacher, Director, Transportation Services Mark Adams, Director, Management & Financial Services RE: Responses to Supervisor Higgins’ Metrorail Questions Submitted 3/6/12 CC: Tim Hemstreet, Linda Neri, Charles Yudd, John Sandy, Leslie Hansbarger, Julie Grandfield, Danny Davis, Ben Mays, Anna Nissinen

1. Have you calculated the cost benefit ratio of Metro to Loudoun?

Robert Charles Lesser & Co. (RCLCO) has forecasted the fiscal impact of the Phase 2 metrorail extension, as compared to the Phase 1 extension, in its report Market and Fiscal Impact Analysis of the Phase 2 Metrorail Extension to Loudoun County (April 2012). This analysis forecasted the amount and timing of development in the areas around the proposed rail stations and countywide through 2040. The resulting fiscal impact represents revenues minus county operating expenditures. While the RCLCO report only addresses revenues versus county non- metro expenditures, county staff is developing strategies to address metro capital and operating costs to present to the Board.

The RCLCO report forecasts a net positive fiscal impact of the Phase 2 extension of metrorail to Loudoun County, compared to Phase 1 only. Changes in the level of development and the net fiscal impact are provided in the Key Conclusions section of the report, pp. 3-7.

2. Do you agree with the RCLCO study (p. 40 and p.41) conclusion that rail will break even in 30 years only if Capital costs and maintenance are ignored?

The Robert Charles Lessor, Company report indicated that their study was limited to the operating costs and revenues associated with development scenarios for Phase I and Phase II. The language regarding capital costs was specifically directed at the resulting capital costs of the different development scenarios. RCLCo was not asked to opine on the capital portion of the development-related scenarios in that County policies in place regarding the potential residential development under Phase II already requested and received proffer contributions to offset 100% of the residential impacts as the respective properties were rezoned. The indicated language was never related to the operating or capital costs related to membership in the Metro system. Analysis of those costs and potential revenue scenarios will be presented and discussed at the Board rail worksessions in late May. Page 1 of 5

COUNTY OF LOUDOUN, VIRGINIA

TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM

3. What will the capital cost including interest, be to Loudoun for construction of Metro to Loudoun?

Current construction cost estimates are $274,879,000, which is 4.8% of the total cost of the project for Loudoun County. This percentage was re-affirmed by the Memorandum of Agreement signed in November 2011 by the United States Department of Transportation, the Commonwealth of Virginia, Loudoun and Fairfax Counties, the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) and the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA).

Analysis of potential capital financing scenarios and Metro-associated operating and capital costs and as well as revenue scenarios will be presented and discussed at the Board rail work sessions in late May.

4. How much will county taxes increase to pay for Phase I and Phase II construction?

Should the Board of Supervisors stay in the project, Loudoun County would contribute 4.8% of the total cost of the project. The project is currently in the Adopted Capital Improvement Program. The Board of Supervisors will determine the tax rates based on forecasted revenues, including assessed property values and non-general revenues, the level and quality of services to provide its constituents every year.

5. How much would taxes increase to subsidize operations and maintenance of Metro?

The elected tax rate will be based on forecasted revenues, including assessed property values and non-general revenues, as well as the level and quality of services and programs the Board of Supervisors want to provide to its constituents.

As mentioned above, on May 16 and May 22, 2012, the Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services will present a plan of finance that will include various financing strategies as well as revenue taxing options.

6. How much would Loudoun County be asked to pay into Metro for rail in the next 5 years?

The current estimated total is $16.3 million in year 2018. Contributions for operating expenses do not begin until WMATA extends its services into Loudoun County. Therefore, if the Board of Supervisors stays in the project, it is currently estimated that Metrorail services will begin in calendar year 2018. WMATA estimates that Loudoun County will contribute 4.1% of the total operating costs, equivalent to $11.1 million and 2.9% of annual capital costs ($5.2 million.) in year 2018. Page 2 of 5

COUNTY OF LOUDOUN, VIRGINIA

TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM

7. How much would Loudoun County be asked to pay into Metro for rail in the next 10 years ?

The current estimated total is $17 million contribution in year 2025. WMATA estimates that Loudoun County will be expected to contribute 4.1% of total operating costs through year 2025. This percentage equates to $9.3 million in year 2025. WMATA also estimates that Loudoun County will contribute 2.9% ($7.7 million) in 2025 for capital costs.

8. How much will Loudoun County be asked to pay into Metro for rail in the next 30 years?

According to the Capital Funding Agreement, the allocated contributions of the contributing jurisdictions for the capital improvement program and will be based on the WMATA Board- adopted FY 2010 Operations Allocation Formulas applied to each project as shown in FY 2011- 2016 CIP applied to each element of the Capital Improvement Program. The allocation formulas will be recalculated every three years to reflect the then-current approved Operating budget allocation and applied to the three subsequent Annual Works Plan. (Please refer to pages 9 and 10 of the Capital Funding Agreement effective July 2010).

9. What if any assurance do you have that the mandatory annual Metro assessment to Loudoun would be steady and not be revised to increase Loudoun’s proportional share?

Answer by WMATA. Please see response L9 that is included in Attachment 1.

10. What will be Loudoun County’s exposure if the Dulles Toll road is not able to collect enough to avoid defaulting on their bonds.

Loudoun County makes no legal or moral obligation that backs the MWAA bonds. Those bonds are supported by the toll revenues, and staff’s understanding is that MWAA would be obligated to increase the tolls to raise sufficient revenue to service its debt. The inquiry, of course, is how the elastic demand will be if tolls are increased to certain levels, and whether there is a point beyond which toll increases will decrease demand such that there is no additional revenue. Other than tolls, staff is uncertain whether MWAA has made a legal or moral commitment to pay the debt service from other funds available to it in the event that toll revenues are insufficient. Certainly, MWAA will want to avoid a default, as it may impact its ability to borrow for other purposes.

11. Do you know of any provision for how WMATA intends to address the $13.3 Billion in deferred maintenance?

Answer by WMATA. Please see response L11 that is included in Attachment 1.

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COUNTY OF LOUDOUN, VIRGINIA

TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM

12. What will Loudoun Loudoun’s exposure be if the currently a lawsuit in the federal courts challenging MWAA's ability to toll for metro improvements succeeds. The lawsuit claims the tolls are in essence a tax, and MWAA has no taxing authority?

If MWAA is barred from imposing tolls for the improvements, the project cannot proceed under the current financing plan. Loudoun would be responsible only for any financings it has issued to fund its 4.8% of the capital costs. The first financing for Loudoun is estimated to occur in FY 2013 at an amount of $40 million.

13. MWAA is issuing bonds based on projected toll revenues that conclude raising tolls to much greater levels will result in increased revenues. The Reston Association has challenged the revenue projections. (RA study is online, author Terry Maynard.) If the revenue projections are overly optimistic or flawed as alleged, there is a risk of default on MWAA's bonds to pay for 75% of Phase 2. The legal question?

Answer by MWAA. Answers to be provided in packet for the May 16th meeting.

14. As per the current financial agreement, is Loudoun County going to be a default guarantor of the MWAA's bonds used to pay for 75% of Phase 2?

No.

15. What if any incentives will Loudoun likely need to pay to sell bond.

The project has been in the adopted capital improvement programs since 2004. As of FY 2013, the Board is setting aside $40 million in debt service for this project. The strong credit rating of the County and ability to sell bonds at very competitive interest rates provides favorable conditions in which to sell bonds.

16. What transportation and other infrastructure costs would building Metro to Loudoun bring and who would bear the cost burden of those improvements?

Answer by MWAA. Answers to be provided in packet for the May 16th meeting.

17. How much, if any, would Loudoun be obligated to pay into Metro if it opted out of Phase 2

Loudoun would have no obligation for any of the capital costs for the Silver Line. With respect to the question of operating subsidies if the line is extended to the airport without Loudoun’s participation, the County Attorney is providing a discussion in a separate memorandum.

18. Has anyone seen any studies supporting Stephen Fullers opinions about how Metro will impact Loudoun's economic potential.

No.

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COUNTY OF LOUDOUN, VIRGINIA

TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM

19. Would you favor devising a plan that would shift the costs of this project from the public to the private sector?

The Board of Supervisors has already established that it is considering the construction of the three garages be separately funded. A Memorandum of Agreement between the United States Department of Transportation, the Commonwealth of Virginia, Loudoun and Fairfax Counties, the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) and the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) reaffirmed that Loudoun County would utilize best efforts to separately fund the Phase II construction costs for the parking garage at the 606 station and the two parking garages at the 772 station. If the County is unable to fund any of these elements, then the funding and costs would stay with the project. The intent is to secure private funding for these elements. The County will continue to consider its many options for funding this project. The analysis provided by Desman and Associates indicates that a strong possibility exists to find successful public-private alternatives to finance the garages that would have either a neutral or positive benefit to the County.

On May 16 and May 22, 2012, the Loudoun County Department of Management and Financial Services will present a plan of finance that will include various financing strategies as well as revenue options. These options will include potential support from the major immediate beneficiaries of the project.

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WMATA Responses to Loudoun County Questions Raised at April 17, 2012 Work Session Submitted 4/25/2012

From Loudoun Supervisor Delgaudio

L16. What does WMATA project rail fares from Loudoun County to be to: Dulles Airport, Herndon, Reston, Tysons, Falls Church, Arlington County, DC, Alexandria, MD? Peak and off peak rates?

Dulles Airport $ 1.70 $ 1.85 $ 2.05 $ 3.50 $ 3.50 $ 3.50 Route 606 $ 1.70 $ 2.05 $ 2.75 $ 3.50 $ 3.50 $ 3.50 Route 772 $ 2.05 $ 2.75 $ 3.25 $ 3.50 $ 3.50 $ 3.50

Note: Fare matrix based on proposed FY2013 Fare.

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County for $28.9 million. A year-by-year breakdown of the projections is shown in Attachment A: Metrorail Operating Cost Projections.

The federal government does not provide direct subsidy for WMATA operating costs, and at this time WMATA does not anticipate any such subsidy will be available in the future.

L19. Why does WMATA need a maintenance facility for 184 rail cars at Dulles when only 128 rail cars will be for Silver Line? Will WMATA fund the facility costs for the 100+ cars to be used elsewhere?

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Fixing the rail fare on the Silver Line would impact the structure of distance-based Metrorail fare. Any changes to Metrorail fare will be subject to WMATA Board approval and compact agreement.

L21. Will WMATA agree to have its riders pay for at least 25% of total capital costs of Dulles Rail by setting a surcharge on all Metrorail fares for next 30 years?

From Loudoun Supervisor Higgins

L9. What if any assurance do you have that the mandatory annual Metro assessment to Loudoun would be steady and not be revised to increase Loudoun’s proportional share? Page | 3

L11. Do you know of any provision for how WMATA intends to address the $13.3 Billion in deferred maintenance?

WMATA will continue to work with local funding jurisdictions and the Federal government to collaborate and identify potential sources to fully fund Metro’s capital improvement needs.

Other Questions/Requests Raised at Hearing

W1. Provide capital and operating cost info for every year between 2018 and 2025

Attachments A and B: Metrorail Operating and Capital Cost Projections, provide year-by -year breakdown of system operating and capital costs and Loudoun County contributions.

1 The existing Capital Funding Agreement funds approximately $5 million in capital investment for the period FY2011 – FY2016. Page | 4

W2. Provide distribution of employees by jurisdiction—DC, MD and VA

As of FY2012, the jurisdiction of residence of Metro’s 11,116 employees is:

o 8,004 MD (72%) o 1,667 VA (15%) o 1,445 DC (13%)

W3. Current number and percent ridership from Loudoun

W4. Clarification of how we handle/manage capacity issue at Rosslyn tunnel

There are two parts to capacity at Rosslyn- portal capacity and train capacity:

Metrorail future peak hour ridership forecasts with the Silver Line in operation show that there will be sufficient capacity in place to handle the anticipated growth in new peak hour trips.

W5. Why has rail ridership been relatively flat in recent years?

Historically, Metrorail ridership has shown steady growth since service started in 1976. Over the pas t 35 years, M etrorail’s average da ily r idership w ent from 103,000 dai ly boardings in 1977 to 750,000 daily boardings today. System expansion and station area development have been and remain the driving forces behind Metro ridership growth.

resume once the regional and national economies recover, though at a slower rate than previously.

W6. If Loudoun opts out, Loudoun will not pay even for the Airport station—this issue will have to be resolved at/by NVTC with no cost to Loudoun

This issue is addressed by Virginia and NVTC

W7. What is not funded in our capital program between the $13 billion needs number and the $5 billion capital program?

Page VI-9 of the WMATA Fiscal Year 2013 Proposed Annual Budget shows the breakdown of investments that are currently unfunded in the FY2011-FY2018 CIP.

W8. How can Loudoun County’s contribution be capped?

W9. What are the performance standards we use for our capital program?

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requirements, and a comparison of billed amounts to amounts actually paid out for the preceding quarter.

W10. Projected ridership by each station for Phase 1 and Phase 2

FEIS Table 6.1-4, Daily Station Boardings Dulles FEIS Forecasts Station Phase 1 LPA Full Build

Dulles Subtotal 24,500 52,600 57,500

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W11. Explain how ridership projections have been developed and respond to concerns about old O-D study being used for projections.

W12. Provide sample fares and travel times for various trip interchanges to and from the Loudoun stations—such as to Tysons, Arlington, Metro Center.

See response to L16 above on possible fares based on proposed FY2013 fares

Sample travel times were provided in Table 6.1-7 of the FEIS. For example,

Dulles Airport to Tysons Corner 19 minutes Dulles Airport to Rosslyn 43 minutes Route 606 to Tysons Corner 22 minutes Route 606 to Metro Center 60 minutes

W13. Want better understanding of the how the max fare works.

The jurisdictions ar e al located one -half t he calculated max f are subsidy, based on the percent o f riders from t he i ndividual j urisdiction w ho bene fit from t he taper and cap. These per centages a re calculated from t he dat a provided by the M etrorail P assenger Survey. T he r emaining hal f o f the m aximum fare s ubsidy i s i ncorporated i nto the r ail

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base s ubsidy. Accordingly, the max fare has a s maller impact t han t he bas e rail components in the subsidy allocation process.

W14. Salary of bus and rail operators—starting and maximum and years it takes to progress from starting to max as per CBA

Currently, Bus and Rail operators earn a minimum of $35,497 and a maximum of $59,120. This is base pay and does not include any overtime. It would take an employee 6 years to reach the max salary.

Attachment A: Metrorail Operating Cost Projections Silver Line Phase 2 Extension Metrorail Operating Cost Projection for FY2018-FY2025

(in millions, YOE$)

FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2023 FY 2024 FY 2025

Revenues/ Prev. Maint. $ 904 $ 935 $ 1,073 $ 1,097 $ 1,123 $ 1,148 $ 1,175 $ 1,192 System Cost Recovery 77% 77% 78% 78% 78% 78% 78% 78%

Net Local Subsidy $ 270 $ 279 $ 303 $ 310 $ 317 $ 324 $ 331 $ 336

Subsidy Allocation Loudoun County $ 11.1 $ 11.4 $ 12.4 $ 12.7 $ 13.0 $ 13.3 $ 13.6 $ 13.8 (Percentage) 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1%

Fairfax County $ 46.2 $ 47.8 $ 51.8 $ 53.0 $ 54.2 $ 55.5 $ 56.7 $ 57.6 (Percentage) 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1%

Arlington County $ 23.2 $ 24.0 $ 26.0 $ 26.6 $ 27.2 $ 27.9 $ 28.5 $ 28.9 (Percentage) 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6%

Note: 1) Phase 2 LPA: Silver Line full LPA to Rt. 772 in Loudoun County

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Attachment B: Metrorail Capital Improvement Program Projections Silver Line Phase 2 Extension Metrorail Capital Cost Projection for FY2018-FY2025 (from 2010 CLRP)

Revenues (Excluding Local Subsidy) $ 619 $ 653 $ 670 $ 378 $ 386 $ 394 $ 402 $ 411

Net Local Subsidy $ 179 $ 236 $ 241 $ 246 $ 251 $ 256 $ 262 $ 267

Deficit (Unfunded) $ 306 $ 313 $ 319 $ 326 $ 333

Subsidy Allocation Loudoun County $ 5.1 $ 6.8 $ 6.9 $ 7.1 $ 7.2 $ 7.4 $ 7.5 $ 7.7 (Percentage) 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%

Fairfax County $ 21.4 $ 28.3 $ 28.8 $ 29.4 $ 30.1 $ 30.7 $ 31.3 $ 32.0 (Percentage) 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0%

Arlington County $ 10.8 $ 14.2 $ 14.5 $ 14.8 $ 15.1 $ 15.4 $ 15.7 $ 16.1 (Percentage) 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%

Note: 1) Phase 2 LPA: Silver Line full LPA to Rt. 772 in Loudoun County

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COUNTY OF LOUDOUN, VIRGINIA

TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM

DATE: April 26, 2012 TO: Board of Supervisors FROM: Andrew Beacher, Director, Transportation Services Mark Adams, Director, Management & Financial Services RE: Responses to Ms. Sally Mann’s Metrorail Questions Submitted 3/8/12 CC: Tim Hemstreet, Linda Neri, Charles Yudd, John Sandy, Leslie Hansbarger, Julie Grandfield, Danny Davis, Ben Mays, Anna Nissinen

1. Will there be any analysis of our current bus system in the Lesser Report? Will they be looking at bus as an alternative, and the economic development that could occur with transit stations (instead of metro stations) which are focused on express buses (to the metro and other locations) if we do not participate in phase 2?

The RCLCO report assessed two scenarios: the Phase 2 extension versus Phase 1 Metrorail only.

2. Will there be any analysis of how many current bus users will use metro?

As part of the analysis conducted for the Transit Plan, included in the 2010 Countywide Transportation Plan Update, the travel demand model forecasted a marginal decrease in bus ridership (two percent) once Metrorail is operational, even if fares are increased to a self- sustaining level of $12 (2005 dollars).

3. Will there be any comparison between the metro and bus, in terms of fares, convenience, speed? We are hearing, for example, the metro will only travel at 25 mph? and the express busses are faster with fewer stops? Will the Lesser study compare busses with metro at all?

The RCLCO report assessed two scenarios: the Phase 2 extension versus Phase 1 Metrorail only.

4. If these questions are not addressed in the Lesser study being updated, will they be addressed by County staff?

The RCLCO report assessed two scenarios: the Phase 2 extension versus Phase 1 Metrorail only. It does not assess an enhanced express bus transit system. RCLCO’s assessment of Phase 1 reflects what can be developed without rail, including with the current bus system. While RCLCO did not consider an enhanced express bus system, the maximum development allowed under Phase 1 already reflects what could be developed with an express bus system.

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COUNTY OF LOUDOUN, VIRGINIA

TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM

DATE: April 26, 2012 TO: Board of Supervisors FROM: Andrew Beacher, Director, Transportation Services Mark Adams, Director, Management & Financial Services RE: Responses to Supervisor Reid’s Metrorail Questions Submitted 3/7/12 CC: Tim Hemstreet, Linda Neri, Charles Yudd, John Sandy, Leslie Hansbarger, Julie Grandfield, Danny Davis, Ben Mays, Anna Nissinen

During the March 7, 2012 Dulles Rail Work Session, Supervisor Reid asked for jobs and housing density and the tax base for metrorail stations, primarily for those outside the beltway.

While tax base information is not readily available, staff is able to pass along data on the density of jobs and households.

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) analyzes data for “activity centers” – areas identified because of current or future concentrations of employment and housing. Several of these activity centers have metrorail stops. Those outside the beltway are listed below.

Employment and household densities per acre based on the most recent data – the draft Round 8.1 forecast – are provided in a table from COG (attached). (Households are occupied housing units.) Data for both 2010 and 2040 are included. Round 8.1 is expected to receive final approval in July 2012.

A map showing the location of the activity centers and a map key are also attached. (Note: the map is labeled “Round 7.0 Regional Activity Centers.” The activity center geography is updated periodically, and the data shown in the table is the most recent available.)

Densities are provided per acre. There are 640 acres per square mile. Total square miles and acres for each activity center are also provided on the table from COG.

Red Line – Maryland 17. White Flint (station: White Flint) 18. Twinbrook (station: Twinbrook) 42. Rockville Town Center (station: Rockville) 43. Shady Grove/King Farm/Life Sciences Center (station: Shady Grove)

Blue Line – Maryland 54. Largo Center (station: Largo Town Center)

Orange Line – Virginia Page 1 of 2

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TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM

21. Merrifield/Dunn Loring (station: Dunn Loring-Merrifield)

Blue Line – Virginia 35. Springfield (station: Franconia-Springfield)

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This map was produced by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

51 37

52 Round 7.0 Regional Activity Centers

40 41 38 43 4218 49 17 44 48 53 26 39 25 16 45 46 30 15 61 202322 13 47 24 5 31 3 1 54 32 9 21 8 42 33 36 14 1160 27 29 6 7 58 56 55 35 57 34

50 59 28

4/20/2012

Reid: Density, 3/7/12 Map Map Regional Activity Centers Regional Activity Centers Key # Key #

1 Downtown Washington 31 Dulles East 2 Federal Center / Southwest / Navy Yard 32 Dulles West 3 Georgetown 33 Fairfax Center 4 Monumental Core 34 I-95 Corridor / Engineer Proving Ground 5 New York Avenue 35 Springfield 6 Eisenhower Avenue 36 City of Fairfax - GMU 7 Downtown Alexandria 37 MD 85/355 Evergreen Point 8 Ballston / Virginia Square 38 Downtown Leesburg 9 Clarendon / Courthouse 39 Corporate Dulles 10 Crystal City 40 Germantown 11 Pentagon City 41 North Frederick Avenue 12 Rosslyn 42 Rockville Town Center 13 Friendship Heights 43 Shady Grove / King Farm / Life Sciences Center 14 Bailey's Crossroads / Skyline 44 White Oak 15 Bethesda CBD 45 U.S. 1 Green Line 16 Silver Spring CBD 46 Greenbelt 17 White Flint 47 New Carrollton 18 Twinbrook 48 Route 1 19 The Pentagon 49 Konterra 20 Herndon 50 Potomac Mills 21 Merrifield / Dunn Loring 51 Airport/Monocacy Boulevard 22 Reston East 52 Urbana 23 Reston West 53 Route 28 North 24 Tysons Corner 54 Largo Center 25 National Institutes of Health 55 National Harbor 26 Rock Spring Park 56 Bull Run - Sudley Area 27 Beauregard Street 57 Innovation 28 Waldorf Commercial 58 Gainesville 29 Beltway South 59 Woodbridge 30 Dulles Corner Airport Centers

60 Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport 61 Washington Dulles International Airport

Reid: Density, 3/7/12 Reid: Density, 3/7/12 Reid: Density, 3/7/12 COUNTY OF LOUDOUN, VIRGINIA

TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM

DATE: April 26, 2012 TO: Board of Supervisors FROM: Andrew Beacher, Director, Transportation Services Nancy Gourley, Transportation Services RE: Responses to Supervisor Volpe’s Metrorail Questions from 4/23/12 Briefing CC: Tim Hemstreet, Linda Neri, Charles Yudd, John Sandy, Leslie Hansbarger, Julie Grandfield, Danny Davis, Ben Mays, Anna Nissinen

During her April 23, 2012 briefing on the Transportation Work Session, Supervisor Volpe requested the following information:

1. Provide a list showing all park and ride lots in the County and fares and destinations.

See Attachments 1 and 2 for locations and destinations. Fares are as follows:

 For Loudoun County to Rosslyn, Pentagon & Washington, D.C., fares are $8 one-way, $7 with a SmarTrip Card.  For Broad Run Farms, Cascades, Our Lady of Hope & Lowes Island, fares are $2.50 one- way, $2 with a SmarTrip card.  For the Reverse Commute, fares are $2.50 one-way, $2 with a SmarTrip card.

2. Provide current ridership for each commuter bus route and projections for Phase I and Phase II of rail with costs and fare projections.

FY12 Ridership Data

Month DC Cascades Reverse Tysons Total Trips July 79933 11050 2143 6442 99568 August 87169 12571 3007 7440 110187 September 87010 12192 1863 7463 108528 October 80637 12055 2677 7745 103114 November 79094 11326 2568 7256 100244 December 72871 13809 2326 5985 94991 January 83092 11519 2588 7097 104296 February 81811 11804 2775 7316 103706 March 92745 10776 2723 8198 114442 Total 744362 107102 22670 64942 939076

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COUNTY OF LOUDOUN, VIRGINIA

TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM

As part of the analysis conducted for the Transit Plan, included in the 2010 Countywide Transportation Plan Update (2010 CTP), the travel demand model forecasted a marginal decrease in bus ridership (two percent) once Metrorail is operational, even if fares are increased to a self-sustaining level of $12 (2005 dollars). Fares for LC Transit through the Transit Development Plan (TDP) six-year time period are assumed to be:

 Commuter Service: $7.00 with SmarTrip card/$8.00 cash  Tysons Express: $3.00 with a SmarTrip card and $3.50 cash  West Falls Church Connection Service: $1.75 with SmarTrip card/$2.25 cash*  Intra-county fare: $1.00 cash  Non-intra-county Transfers: None. Passengers pay a fare with each boarding

*Effective July 1, 2011, the Board of Supervisors increased the fare for all West Falls Church- based service to $2 with a SmarTrip card and $2.50 with cash.

Costs associated with the commuter bus service through the TDP six-year time period are projected as follows:

LC Transit Annual O&M Costs and Potential Revenue Sources (Year of Expenditure Dollars)

Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Projected Service Costs/Funding Category FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017

Projected Operating & Maintenance Costs Commuter & Express Service (not incl. vehicle replace.) $8,515,800 $9,102,300 $9,216,900 $9,844,600 $10,139,900 $9,438,700 Tysons Service $1,054,300 $1,085,900 $848,000 $873,400 $899,600 $0 Administrative Expenses $254,200 $261,800 $269,700 $277,800 $286,100 $294,700 Total Expenses $9,824,300 $10,450,000 $10,334,600 $10,995,800 $11,325,600 $9,733,400 Net change from Prior Year $1,707,500 $625,700 ($115,400) $661,200 $329,800 ($1,592,200)

Anticipated Non‐Gas Tax Funding Sources Fare Revenue Commuter Fare Revenue $6,333,800 $7,392,000 $7,744,800 $8,097,600 $8,097,600 $5,947,200 Express Fare Revenue $247,000 $288,300 $273,000 $273,000 $273,000 $584,000 Tysons Fare Revenue $151,200 $189,000 $156,000 $156,000 $156,000 $0 Total Fare Revenues $6,732,000 $7,869,300 $8,173,800 $8,526,600 $8,526,600 $6,531,200 Farebox Recovery Ratio (percentage of fares that cover O&M costs) 68.5% 75.3% 79.1% 77.5% 75.3% 67.1%

State/TMP Funds Dulles Metrorail TMP ‐ Tysons $903,100 $939,500 $0 $0 $0 $0 State Mass Transit Fund ‐ Commuter & Express $1,100,000 $1,139,600 $1,185,500 $1,234,200 $1,286,800 $1,327,700 Total State Funds $2,003,100 $2,079,100 $1,185,500 $1,234,200 $1,286,800 $1,327,700

Required Gas Tax or Local Other Funds $1,089,200 $501,600 $975,300 $1,235,000 $1,512,200 $1,874,500

Inflation Factor 1.03

Notes on Assumptions • O&M Costs do not include vehicle replacements or lease purchase costs of vehicles. See Capital plan. • Fare revenue based on ridership and current fare policy. See Appendix D for ridership data. • Average fare of $9.21r needed fo Commuter service in FY2017 to offset estimated loss in gasoline tax funds. Sources • National Transit Database (NTD) reports, Loudoun County budgets, and estimates made for the TDP. • Data reported as combined when source data could not be separated. Page 2 of 4

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TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM

3. Provide assumptions for ridership numbers for each of the Loudoun County Metro stations.

DESMAN Associates, the author of the Metrorail Parking Demand Study commissioned by Loudoun County, examined existing population and land use forecasts models to determine the number of daily boardings at the two stations in Loudoun County (refer to page 6 of the DESMAN Study):

*Source: Refer to pages 9 and 10 of DESMAN Associate’s Metrorail Parking Demand Study.

4. Provide a list of all approved re-zonings with transit proffers.

See Attachment 3.

5. Provide existing statistics on origination of riders on commuter buses.

Origins and Destinations of Survey Respondents by Jurisdiction*

Origin County Respondents Percent Destination County Respondents Percent

Loudoun 644 95.5% DC 475 75.6%

Clarke 8 1.2% Arlington 99 15.8%

Frederick, MD 7 1.0% Loudoun 39 6.2%

Jefferson, WV 5 0.7% Alexandria 5 0.8%

Fairfax 4 0.6% Montgomery, MD 4 0.6%

Winchester 3 0.4% Prince George’s, MD 3 0.5%

Prince William 2 0.3% Fairfax 3 0.5%

DC 1 0.1%

Total 674 Total 628

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TRANSMITTAL MEMORANDUM

* The statistics shown were taken from the market analysis completed for the 2010 CTP.

6. Describe the basis for the arrangements that allow for commuter buses to use the Greenway, Dulles Toll Road and Airport Access Road at no cost?

Per the Code of Viriginia, 33.1-252 Free use of toll facilities by certain state officers and employees (applies to the Dulles Toll Road):

…Upon presentation of a toll pass issued pursuant to regulations promulgated by the Commonwealth Transportation Board, the following persons may use all toll bridges, toll ferries, toll tunnels, and toll roads in the Commonwealth without the payment of toll while in the performance of their official duties:

A – 17 Operators of commuter buses having a capacity of 20 or more passengers, including the driver, and used to regularly transport workers to and from their places of employment and public transit buses;

With respect to the Dulles Airport Access Road (DAAR), a limited number of commuter buses are allowed to access airport property and utilize the entire length of the DAAR through agreement between Loudoun County and MWAA. Transponders mounted in the buses allow access to the DAAR.

7. On the commuter bus, how much of the cost is the rider paying, and how much is the County subsidizing?

Based on FY11 final financials*:

Source Gasoline Tax State Grants Fare Revenue Total Operating Cost

Amount $1,310,699 $1,355,169 $6,706,011 $9,371,879

Subsidy $1.17 $1.21 $6.00 $8.38

* Total passenger trips: 1,118,417; numbers do not include Tysons Express service which is fully funded by the Dulles Rail project

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