Transit in the Nation's Capital: What Lies Ahead?
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Q Transit in the Nation's Department of Caoital: Wiiat Lies Aliead? Transportation A Study of Projected Transit Service, Cost, and Financial Impacts on the Region Through the Year 2000 February 1986 UMTA Technical Assistance Program 7 Transit in the Nation's Capital: What Lies Ahead? A Study of Projected Transit Service, Costs, and Financial Impacts on the Region Through the Year 2000 Final Report February 1986 Prepared by Federal City Council 11 55 1 5th Street N W, Suite 81 Washington, D.C. 20005 Prepared for Urban Mass Transportation Administration 400 Seventh Street, SW Washington, D.C. 20590 Distributed in Cooperation with Technology Sharing Progrann Office of the Secretary of Transportation DOT- 1-87-20 FEDERAL CITY COUNCIL OFFICERS W. Reid Thompson, Chairman Chairman of the Board & CEO Potomac Electric Power Company Harry McPherson, President Verner, Liipfert, Bernard, McPherson & Hand Donald E. Smiley, Vice President Vice President - Washington Office Exxon Corporation Edwin K. Hoffman, Vice President - Project Planning Chairman of the Board Woodward & Lothrop, Inc. Austin H. Kiplinger, Vice President - Membership-Finance President The Kiplinger Washington Editors, Inc. G. Duane Vieth, Vice President - Budget Partner Arnold & Porter Daniel J. Callahan, III, Vice President - Trust Fund Chairman of the Board & CEO American Security Bank, N.A. Carl W. Ruppert, Secretary Managing Partner Price Waterhouse Joseph H. Riley, Treasurer Former Chairman NS&T Bank Roger A. Clark, General Counsel Partner Rogers & Wells ; PREFACE As Chairmen of the Metro Finance Task Force and its Technical Advisory Committee, we would like to thank the members of our committees for the extraordinary commitment they made to our study of Washington area transit finance. This effort began more than nine months ago, and in the ensuing weeks and months, members of our committees have given literally thousands of hours of their time to the task of reviewing documents, attending meetings, and sharing their insights and judgments with the Federal City Council staff and our consultants. We also would like to thank those who appeared before our committees: representatives of the Federal government, the States of Maryland and Virginia, and the District of Columbia, local government officials, and numerous staff members from the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority. Their presentations were uniformly excellent and they have contributed greatly to our efforts. Finally, we would like to single out our consultants for particular praise. Each of them—Jeff Bruggeman, Bob Peskin, Ray Ellis, and Bruce Williams from Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co. Phil Dearborn from the Greater Washington Research Center; and George Wickstrom, Ron Sarros, and John McClain from the Council of Governments—worked tirelessly to ensure that our final product is worthy of broad-based support. When we began this study last May, we committed ourselves to producing an honest, hard headed, realistic set of numbers regarding our region's future transit costs. We believe that we have accomplished our mission and we have done so by involving all the affected parties in the process and by reaching concensus at every major milestone. We feel confident that this study will enable the region's decision makers and the public at large to make better informed judgments about the future of mass transit in the Washington Metropolitan area. Mac Asbill, Jr. Shiva K. Pant Chairman Chairman Metro Finance Task Force Technical -Advisory Committee METRO FINANCE TASK FORCE Mac Asbill, Jr., Chairman Stephen Ailes * * * Gladys W. Mack Mac Asbill, Jr. William E. Miller G. Dewey Arnold * * * John G. Milliken Carol D. Barrett Robert L. Nelson Alan S. Boyd Mandell J Ourisman Frederick J. Clarke Whayne S. Quin, Esquire Roger A. Clark Thomas Quigley Edwin I. Colodny Thomas Schaef er Philip Dearborn Walter Scheiber James W. Dyke, Jr. Donald Smith Williams H. Edwards, Jr. * * * Ralph L. Stanley Nonie England Robert F Tardio Norman Farquhar *** David A. Wagner Michele V. Hagans Robert B Washington, Jr, Donald J. Heim J. Hillman Zahn Judith Richards Hope * Chairman ** Vice Chairman *** Co-chairman : : ; : : : : TECHNICAL ADVISORY COMMITTEE TO THE FEDERAL CITY COUNCIL'S METRO FINANCE TASK FORCE Chairman: Shiva K. Pant District of Columbia: City Of Alexandria, Va. Sherri Alston Clifford Rusch D.C. Dept. of Public Works Deputy City Manager Barbara Davis City of Fairfax, Va.: Office of the Budget Richard R. Fruehauf Trans, and Utilities State of Maryland: Larry Saben City of Falls Church, Va. Maryland Dept. of Trans. Henry Bibber Planning & Development Alexander Eckmann Maryland DOT Northern Virginia Transportation Comm. State of Virginia: Rick Taube Sally Cooper Northern Virginia Va. Dept. of Highways & Trans Trans. Commission James W. Atwell Washington Suburban Va. Dept. of Highways & Trans, Transit Commission: Joanne Price Montgomery County, Md. Edward Daniel Transportation Planning Montgomery County Department Board (COG) of Transportation Al Grant Trans. Planning Board William H. Treworgy Office of Management & Budget Greater Washington Board of Trade: Prince George's County, Md. Carol Barrett Dee Allison Community Development Prince George's County Dept. Bureau of Public Works & Trans. William G. Fry Robert O. Duncan Dewberry and Davis Prince George • s County Office of Budget Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority: Fairfauc County, Va. Harry Barley Shiva Pant Fairfax County Dept. of Trans. UMTA Liaison: Sam Zimmerman Dr. James P. McDonald Director Management and Budget Office of Methods & Support Arlington County, Va: Mark Kellogg Public Works Planning 25893416 TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION PAGE I. INTRODUCTION ' I.l II. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN THE WASHINGTON AREA II. 1 III. OPERATING STATISTICS III.l INTRODUCTION III.l METROBUS STATISTICS III. Analysis Approach III. Near-Term Changes III. Stark-Harris System Changes III. Full System Changes III. LOCAL BUS SERVICE III. METRORAIL SERVICE III. IV. RIDERSHIP AND REVENUE IV. AREA SYSTEM IV. 1 DATA BASE IV. NETWORK DEVELOPMENT IV. WORK TRAVEL DEMAND MODELING IV. NON-WORK MODELING IV. 8 VERIFICATION OF MODELING APPROACH IV. 10 PROJECTED RIDERSHIP IV. 10 FARE REVENUE ESTIMATION IV. 18 V. OPERATING COST PROJECTIONS V.l INTRODUCTION V.l BASIC COST MODEL STRUCTURE V.2 Union Labor Costs V.2 Front Line Supervisory Non-Union Labor Costs V.3 Administrative Non-Union Labor Costs V.3 Parts, Supplies, and Service Costs V.3 DRIVING VARIABLES V.4 Bus Driving Variables V.4 Rail Driving Variables V.4 INFLATION CONSIDERATIONS V.5 ANALYSIS OF PRIOR WMATA OPERATING COST EXPERIENCE V.6 CALIBRATION OF METROBUS AND METRORAIL COST MODELS V.7 Separation of Fixed, Mileage- and Hour- Related Costs V.8 Adjustments to FY86 Calibration V.9 APPLICATION OF WMATA METROBUS AND METRORAIL COST MODELS V.9 LOCAL BUS OPERATING COST PROJECTIONS V.13 4613 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) SECTION PAGE VI. RAIL CONSTRUCTION VI . VII. REHABILITATION AND REPLACEMENT COST PROJECTIONS VII. METHODOLOGY VI I . INPUT ASSET VALUES V11.3 METROBU& FACILITIES AND EQUIPMENT REHABILITATION AND REPLACEMENT COSTS VII. Metrobus Facilities and Equipment, except Buses and New Maintenance Facilities VII. Bus Rehabilitation and Replacement Costs VII. New Metrobus Maintenance Facilities Costs VII. Results VII. METRORAIL FACILITIES REHABILITATION AND REPLACEMENT COSTS VII. Metrorail Facilities, except Track VII. Track Replacment Costs VII. 6 METRORAIL EQUIPMENT REHABILITATION AND REPLACEMENT COSTS VII. 13 Metrorail Equipment, except Rail Cars VII. 13 Rail Car Rehabilitation and Replacement Costs VII. 13 SUMMARY VII. 19 LIMITATIONS VII . 19 VIII. ALLOCATION OF WMATA SUPPORT VIII. OPERATING SUPPORT VIII. ANNUAL ESTIMATES VI I I. DEBT SERVICE VIII. 10 REHABILITATION AND REPLACEMENT COSTS VIII. 10 FEDERAL SUPPORT VIII. 10 STATE SUPPORT VIII. 11 SUMMARY OF ALLOCATIONS VIII. 12 IX. MEASURING THE WMATA BURDEN: 1980-1985 IX. X. CHANGE IN SIX AREA GOVERNMENTS REVENUES AND EXPENDITURES: 1986 - 2000 X.l REVENUES X.l EXPENDITURES X.4 BASIS FOR LOCAL GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS X.6 XI. THE EFFECTS OF FUTURE WMATA FINANCING ON AREA GOVERNMENTS XI. 1 5413 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) SECTION PAGE APPENDICES : - A. PROPOSED METROBUS CHANGES BY ROUTE A.l NEAR-TERM CHANGES - VIENNA CORRIDOR A.l STARK-HARRIS SYSTEM CHANGES - BRANCH AVENUE CORRIDOR A. STARK-HARRIS SYSTEM CHANGES - GREENBELT CORRIDOR A. FULL SYSTEM CHANGES - BRANCH AVENUE CORRIDOR A. FULL SYSTEM CHANGES - GREENBELT CORRIDOR A. B. PATRONAGE FORECASTING MODEL B.l C. PATRONAGE RESULTS BY JURISDICTION AND CORRIDOR C.l D. DETAILED OPERATING COST MODEL ANALYSIS AND RESULTS D.l COST MODEL STRUCTURE AND RESULTS D.l INFLATION ANALYSIS D.22 HISTORICAL WMATA COST DATA D.2 3 Allocation of Bus Costs D.23 Analysis of Cost per VehiclQ-Mile D.28 Analysis of Historical Metrorail Maintenance Staffing Levels D.28 ADJUSTMENTS TO FY86 MODEL CALIBRATION D.35 Termination of Old Programs and Initiation of New Programs D.35 Changes in Labor Productivity and Unit Cost D.36 E. REHABILITATION AND REPLACEMENT INPUTS AND DETAILED RESULTS E . 1 METROBUS REHABILITATION AND REPLACEMENT E.l METRORAIL FACILITIES REHABILITATION AND REPLACEMENT E.9 METRORAIL EQUIPMENT REHABILITATION AND REPLACEMENT E.21 TRACK REPLACEMENT E.43 RAIL CAR REHABILITATION AND REPLACEMENT E.49 F. RAIL ALLOCATION PARAMETERS F.l G. JURISDICTIONAL ALLOCATIONS G.l H. IMPACT OF WMATA SUPPORT ON LOCAL JURISDICTIONS H.l I. HISTORICAL WMATA ASSISTANCE AND ABILITY TO PAY MEASURES I . 2378954 LIST OF EXHIBITS EXHIBIT PAGE 11. 1 EMPLOYMENT CHANGE