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The State of the Monetarist Debate by LEONALL C

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The State of the Monetarist Debate by LEONALL C The State of the Monetarist Debate by LEONALL C. ANDERSEN The following paper was presented last spring as part of a series of public lectures held at the fol- lowing universities: The Ohio State University; University of California at Los Angeles; and University of Southern California, As indicated by the title, the purpose of the paper is to discuss those issues which appear to have divided economists into two camps: monetarist and post-Keynesian. To further this objective, two discussants of opposing viewpoints were invited to comment on the Andersen presentation. Professor Lawrence R. Klein of the Wharton School of Finance, University of Pennsylvania, provides comments from a post-Keynesian point of view. Professor Karl Brunner of the University of Rochester dis- cusses the issues from a nwnetarist position. FOR OVER thirty-five years there has been con- made in reconciling these views up to the present tinuing debate between two prominent schools of eco- time. nomic thought. In recent years these two schools have I want to point out that my analysis of these topics been characterized by the labels “monetarist” and is from the point of view of an active participant on “post-Keynesian” economics. Some major participants the monctarist side of the debate. The analysis re- on the monetarist side are professors Karl Brunner, flects my view of the debate and may not agree, in all Milton Friedman, and Allan Meltzer. The post-Key- aspects, with the views of other participants — mone- nesian side is represented by such academic econo- tarists or post-Keynesians. In addition, for purposes of mists as Lawrence Klein, Franco Modigliani, Paul this discussion, I will contrast two polar positions. It Samuelson, and James Tobin. must be recognized, however, that there are many The debate has been ongoing since the publication who consider themselves to be in some middle-of-the- road position on many of the issues. of Keynes’ General Theory in the mid-1930s. It be- came particularly heated in the late 1940s, and in the 1950s post-Keynesian views dominated macro-eco- THE IMPACT OF MONEY nomic theory and economic stabilization policy. The A Post-Keynesian View debate was reopened in the late lD5Os, and beginning in the mid-1960s the monetarist view began to be Let us now examine the first issue — the role of money as an important driving force in the economy. recognized as a serious challenge to post-Keynesian Paul Samnelson, in commenting on the debate, has economics. provided an excellent summary of the post-Keynesian 1 The debate has ranged over three major fields of vie%v regarding money. interest to economists. These are macro-economic As a limit upon the stimulus stemming from money theory, economic stabilization policy, and economic creation by orthodox open-market operations, must research methodology. My remarks today will concen- be reckoned the fact that as the central bank pumps new money into the system, it is in return taking trate primarily on the stabilization aspects of the from the system an almost equal quantum of money debate, although I will of necessity bring in some substitutes in the form of government securities. discussion of the other two. What needs to be stressed is the fact that one can- For purposes of this discussion, I will focus on six not expect money created by this process alone ..- to have at all the same functional relationship to the topics of the economic stabilization aspect of the de- level of the CNP and of the price index as could be bate. These are: the impact of monetary actions, the the case for money created by gold mining or money impact of fiscal actions, the trade-off between infla- created by the printing press of national govern- ments or the Fed and used to finance public expen- tion and unemployment, the factors influencing inter- 2 est rates, the degree of stability inherent in thc ditures in excess of tax receipts. economy, and the appropriate time horizon for stabili- iPaul A. Samuelson, “Reflections on the Merits and Demerits zation policy- In discussing each of these topics, I of Monetarism,” in Issues in Fiscal and Monetary Policy: The Eclectic Economist Views the Controversy, ed. James J. Dia- will first summarize the contending views in the last mond (DePauI University, 1971), pp. 7-21. half of the 1960s. Then, I will summarize the progress 2Thid,, pp. 8-9. Page 2 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 1973 Samuelson continues this analysis by pointing out run movements in output are little influenced by that money creation in today’s economy does not changes in the growth rate of money. Trend move- necessarily reflect creation of wealth, and thereby ments in output are essentially determined by the exerts no direct influence on aggregate demand. Cre- growth of such factors as the labor force, natural ation of money, however, does change interest rates resources, capital stock, and technology. In the short which in turn influence aggregate demand. He then run, however, changes in the trend growth of money points out that research of the late 1930s and 1940s or pronounced variations around a given trend exert led economists to reject money because interest rates a significant, but temporary, impact on output. The were found to exert little influence on aggregate timing and magnitude of such impact depends on demand. initial conditions at the time of a change in money growth. Two major indicators of initial conditions are Samuelson then presents his view of recent eco- the level of resource utilization and the expected rate nomic history by stating that Pigou’s real balance of inflation. effect of money on consumption served to reconcile the deep cleavage between neo-classical theory and Monetarists do not maintain, as asserted by many the Keynesian revolution. He then contends that post-Keynesians, that money is the only influence on -..by the 1950’s and 1960’s an accumulating body either nominal or real economic magnitudes. Other of analysis and data had led to a strong belief that factors which exert a significant influence are factors open-market and discount operations by the central which change the demand for money, productivity, bank could have pronounced macroeconomic effects and factor endowment. There is even room in this upon investment and consumption spending in the 3 succeeding several months and quarters. analysis for Keynes’ “animal spirits” on the part of businessmen. The key proposition is that changes in Despite this strong contention regarding the influ- money dominate other short-run influences on output ence of monetary actions, post-Keynesian analysis, and other long-run influences on the price level and until recently, has persisted in denigrating the influ- nominal aggregate demand. I will have more to say ence of money because of the rather weak, or long later in this regard. delayed, response of aggregate demand to changes in interest rates. Econometric models continued to stress Recent Developments in the Debate the interest rate channel and shied away from in- corporating any influence of real money balances. For An integral part of the debate regarding the influ- example, when simulations of the original Klein- ence of money on economic activity is the different Goldberger model of the late 195Os showed that the views held regarding the economic function of money. real balance effect swamped all other influences, the Some who denigrate the importance of money point monetary sector was dropped from the model because out that it is one asset which carries no monetary such a result was deemed “unrealistic” and yield. Others stress that money in today’s economy is “implausible.”4 not wealth and conclude that changes in money have little direct influence on spending decisions. Some A Monetarist View post-Keynesians view money as only one of a virtually continuing spectrum of financial assets and thus be- Now for the other side of this issue. The mone- lieve it to be of only secondary importance. tarists contend that changes in money exert a strong force on aggregate demand (measured in nominal A further argument advanced about the role of terms), the price level, and output. In determining money has been based upon the lack of synchroniza- the impact of money, it is further contended that a tion between transactors’ receipts and expenditures. distinction must be made between nominal and real In such a case, it is desirable for market participants economic magnitudes and between the short run and to hold an inventory of money balances. This argu- the long run. ment can be used to develop a model which delegates a powerful role for money in influencing economic Changes in the trend growth of money are consid- activity. The post-Keynesians, however, have not pro- ered the dominant, not the exclusive, determinant of duced such a model. the trend of nominal GNP and the price level, Long- On the other side of the debate, empirical evidence ~Thid,,p. 12. 4 has been presented to support the view that money Arthur S. Goldberger, Impact Multipliers and Dynamic Prop- erties of the Klein-Goldberger Model (Amsterdam: North- matters to a considerable degree; but, until recently, Holland Publishing Company, 1959), pp. 84-85. little attention has been given to producing a rigorous Page 3 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 1973 analysis of the role that money plays in a market this recommendation almost exclusively until late in 96 economy. In recent years, the view has been growing the l 0s. that money does have an extremely important influ- Attention has gradually shifted in recent years to- ence because it is the asset used by society which ward more emphasis on money and less on inter- minimizes the economic costs associated with collect- est rates.
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